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Failing Thursday – Democracy and the Bull Market Now on Life Support

Image result for trump fascist"A little whiff of fascism."

That was the quote of the day regarding yesterday's firing of FBI Director James Comey, who the White House now says "threw a stick of dynamite into the Department of Justice, and committed “atrocities” in his handling of the Clinton email saga."  That's just a week after saying Hitler wasn't such a bad guy after all but the Director of the FBI, now HE committed atrocities!  Wow!  Wow!  

Once upon a time, that statement alone would have been all people were talking about but now that's just another day in Washington, barely worth a mention.  Also not getting a mention are reports that Comey told associates that Trump was "outside the realm of normal,” even “crazy."  I guess we can file that under "so what else is new?" but investors are voting with their feet this morning and, as we predicted yesterday, the markets are turning down a bit.

Political turmoil is never attractive to investors and this is not something the President can tweet away (and read the comments under the tweet, they are hysterical).  There are currently 3 separate investigations going on and, while we are focused on the FBI investigation due to Comey's firing, the Senate is investigating this morning and, in fact, Comey was supposed to testify but his timely firing will prevent him from coming today and instead the temporary Director of the FBI will testify to things he did not directly know about.  Just a coincidence that Comey was fired right before he was scheduled to testify, I'm sure…

While Team Trump is hoping for a rubber-stamp from the Senate this morning, the Senate has to at least pretend they are conducting a real investigation or they face severe political backlash as the polls have already turned very much against them.  Republicans would rather sacrifice a President than sacrifice control of the House and Senate and those are the stakes going foward (aside from our Democracy, which has already been sacrificed, of course). 

Not many people have been paying attention to the Senate testimony so far but back in March, we already had a boatload of data from Marco Rubio, who said the Russians were still actively hacking systems belonging to his office and the office of House Speaker Paul Ryan and the FBI's Clint Watts, who already testified to the Senate Intelligence Committee as to the various ways Russia (and Team Trump) had interfered with the US election:

Since these revelations, the investigations have been back-burnered as repealing Obamacare and giving tax cuts to rich people became bigger priorities for the House and the Senate but Comey wouldn't let go and requested more funds to push forth the investigation – and he was fired. 

We'll see how the markets hold up into the weekend.  Yesterday's Oil (/CL) and Gasoline (/RB) futures trades paid off fantastically as we rocketed back to $48 and $1.56 and Silver (/SI) shot up 0.20 for $1,000 per contract gains and gold popped as well and Coffee (/KC) did the usual $2 move back over $137, which is good for gains of $750 per contract and we're back under $135 again for yet another chance to reload.

SnapChat (SNAP) took a heck of a dive yesterday which, as I mentioned in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar is evidence of how overvalued so many individual stocks are in this frothy market.  That combined with the low-volume rally we've been having means we can fall very hard and fast if people find a reason to sell off so I STRONGLY reccommend having good hedges on long positions as well as plenty of CASH!!! on the sidelines.

Be careful out there! 

 


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  1. This presidency is starting to look like an episode of the Twilight Zone except that are all extras (unpaid)! 

    http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/05/evening-trump-fuckupery-roundup

    And these great competent business people got played by the Russians:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-to-meet-russian-foreign-minister-at-the-white-house-as-moscows-alleged-election-interference-is-back-in-spotlight/2017/05/10/c6717e4c-34f3-11e7-b412-62beef8121f7_story.html?utm_term=.fd7bbd06ece6

    “We were not informed by the Russians that their official photographer was dual-hatted and would be releasing the photographs on the state news agency,” the administration official said.

    As Drum concludes:

    Trump (a) didn't know that TASS is a news agency, (b) didn't realize that letting a TASS photographer into the Oval Office might not be a great idea from a security point of view, and (c) didn't realize that publishing pictures of this meeting was the whole point Vladimir Putin had asked for it in the first place. Putin wanted evidence to show that Russia was back, baby, and this was it. It's scary how easily Trump was played on all this. It's also scary that apparently none of his advisors had the courage to tell Trump any of this stuff.


  2. Good morning everyone! The webinar replay is now up!

    https://youtu.be/hZAz630C_RM



  3. And new "fake" polls will not make him happy:

    https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2456

    Even his base is crumbling:

    A split among white voters with no college degree, as 47 percent approve and 46 percent disapprove, compared to a 57 – 38 percent approval April 19;


  4. Very simple portfolio:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-ultimate-buy-and-hold-strategy-2017-05-04

    Mostly ETF though, but nothing wrong with that if you stay away from ones that invest in futures or are leveraged because of the decay.


  5. Phil /Hedges:

    APPL, Many of us have it, do you think an additional hedge  (short term) is advisable?, in my case is a 20% of the LTP. 

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4071859-apple-avoid-20-percent-downside?uprof=82&isDirectRoadblock=false


  6. Good Morning.


  7. TEVA WTF??? was over 32 and now sinking again…


  8. How about selling some puts on M this morning?  2019 $20 puts should have some decent premium at the open


  9. Russian Hackers:  When I read the list of 25 things are doing to Americans using U.S designed systems, with U.S design programs and using  English (a non cyrillic language) my question is what the hell American Agencies are doing in Russia?.

     Russians have 3 main agencies  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Russian_intelligence_agencies),and are doing all this?, USA has at least 9 different agencies  what are they doing in Russia?


  10. FU M

    FU FTR

    FU TEVA

    FU GNC
    FU GILD

    FU LB

    FU TSLA

    dogs w fleas dangit!!!


  11. So where are people dipping their toes into the coffee pot? 1.33?  


  12. fu Jo too!!!


  13. Jabob – In the words of Warren Buffett :

    ~~" It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."

    I think most of us spend too much time in the latter ones.  I know I do.

    And the prices keep getting more "wonderful."
     


  14. On the other hands, markets are falling hard today so I would not expect these guys to outperform!


  15. Albo- yes,sometimes cheap stocks are cheap for a reason. Homework pays. 


  16. Winston – Speaking of wonderful companies, is it about time to sell some PCLN OTM puts ?


  17. I made sure I remembered this correctly, Elon Musk about a little over a month ago said that the solar roof tiles would be the same price IF not cheaper than regular roof tiles NOT counting the energy savings.  Well they are actually about 35% more and that's if you only need 35% of them to be solar tiles.  Most houses require between 40-70% so the roof could be up to 200% more than a regular tile roof and an asphalt roof is just a fraction of this cost.  Have to believe that Elon knew the prices beforehand, could not be this far off without knowing.  Just another lie to pump up the stock at the time and hope people forgot what he said.


  18. Of course, I am only involved in TEVA and GILD for now so less damage and my sold puts are still safe so don't care that much.


  19. Good morning! 

    Still plenty of buyers out there, no matter what happens.

    Dollar up at 99.50, oil just under $48.  Coffee crashed back to $134 but $132.50 was last week's low so be careful.  

    NYSE is over 11,550 so nothing to be too bearish about so far but S&P needs to confirm with a move over 2,400.

    M got clobbered on earnings, down about 10% but they are closing 10% of their stores and incurring costs so the sell-off is silly.

    AAPL/Advill – We're already very hedged on AAPL so of course I think it's a good idea.  What's your position?

    TEVA/Jabob – Well they did miss on revenues but, on the whole, it was a good report.

    M/JJ – We already sold 10 Jan $28 puts for $5.60 on 1/10 in the LTP, that's our current position.  They are now about $6.20 so I still like them and I will consider a bull call spread, like the 2019 $23 ($5)/33 ($1.80) bull call spread at $3.20 to add to them.  It's very good as a new trade – can be 2:1 ratio for net almost 0 on a $20 spread.

    Hacking/Advill – I'm sure we do plenty but that's the CIA and, fortunately, no one knows what the Hell those guys are doing.  Makes you realize you need those type of James Bond unaccountable agencies running around sometimes because you can't trust your own Government either!  

    /KC/Burr – I don't see a new crop report so $1.335 should hold.

    Good point Rustle. 

    FU/Jabob – I hope you have hedges because they are all going to get a lot cheaper if the market tanks.  I would consider UUP yours…  cheeky


  20. In any case, momentum is not just upward! There is such thing as downward momentum so FTR is really a MoMo and I do stay away from them. Might be a wonderful investment eventually, but we all need rules and mine is "No MoMo".


  21. phil…. hope you get out of you slump soon..

    btw--this is exactly what i told you that i was afraid of— what would happen to the FU stocks if the market actually dropped…

    o well


  22. phil, i have a position from an earlier purchase of TEVA 2019 $35 short puts and $30/$40 call spread.  would you suggest rolling these down in strike to what you recommend today?


  23. SPX 2340 should be a good stopping point to go long, or at least watch…. MoMos are NoNos because they leave Bobos ….  Now, long GLD (just a small portion).


  24. Phil / Pharm,

    Any insights on SGYP earning report, the report felt like it was optimistic but the stock is still selling off as it was a wider loss than expected.

    Thanks

    Pat


  25. Gartman said that the Comey firing would not be a big deal.  BUY YOUR INDEX PUTS NOW!!


  26. SGYP…small company, big indication.  They have a superior product, but are trying to go it alone.  Sometimes it backfires.  Right now, I am willing to give them a chance to get things going.  Otherwise, they could team up with a bigger company or be sold off.  IRWD is my comparator, as they have a similar drug and their price is built in for that drug partnered with Forrest/Activas.


  27. QUIK – My pick of the year, is now down below the $1.50 offering price of the secondary they placed.  They reported last night, and while there is a lot of progress on several fronts, no revenue ramp just yet.  Still think it's coming and keeping my overweight position.


  28. Phil /AAPL:

    2500  shares

    Sold 25 contracts AAPL PUT 140 Jan 18

    that´s it 



  29. Reduced my position in VRX.  Small profit.  Trade is working out, but not without a lot of hassle and anguish !

    Phil, your timing was superb !


  30. Hi Phil, ATI has fallen sharply from $20 to $16. I am considering an initial position. Would you choose lower strikes than the Oct position currently  in the portfolio? Thanks, DM


  31. Phil I think alot of oil traders must agree with you that prices will be rising in June, because the contracts that are disappearing from the front month seem to only be moving to July which I guess is so they can sell when prices rise in June as anticipated, right? Do you notice that the July open positions seem to be growing larger than we usually see the next month grow in this game?


  32. ~~TEVA Q1'17 EARNINGS CALL HIGHLIGHTS:
    * Debt: Reduced debt by $1.2 bn in the quarter. Still expects $5 bn of debt pay
      down in 2017. Part of the funds for debt paydown will come from divestitures.
    * Covenants: Current covenant is 5.25x net debt/EBITDA and 4.25x net
      debt/EBITDAby year end. Sees no need to negotiate covenants.
    * Leverage Covenants: On a net debt/EBITDA basis. Q1 being the first full
      fiscal quarter after the Funding Date occurs. Funding date means the day as
      of or following the Effective Date when the draw down of the Term loans occur.
      1Q 5.25x
      2Q 5.25x current covenant according to the company
      3Q 5.00x
      4Q 5.00x
      5Q 4.25x
      6Q 4.25x
      7Q 4.00x
      8Q 4.00x
      9Q 3.50x
    * Cost savings: now expects to achieve $1.5 bn in cost savings by the end of
      2017.
    * CFO: Mike McClellan was named interim CFO effective July 1, 2017.
    * Divestitures: Teva is pursuing the sale of the Global Women's Health and
      European Oncology and Pain businesses. Expects to complete the sale by the
      end of the year.
    * Leverage: Ended the quarter at 4.63x debt/EBITDA and 4.49x net debt/EBITDA.
    * CEO: Continues to search for a permanent CEO.
    * Generic pricing: Generic deflation was 7% versus previous guidance of 5% due
      to consolidation from key customers and increased generic drug approvals by
      the FDA.
    * Expects new launches to generate $500 mn of sales this year.  
    * Dividends: At this point Teva will continue to pay dividend.


  33. Phil, FXP:  only a week to go, is there a longer-term China play?

    Buy 10 FXP May $25 calls for $2.50 ($2,500)
    Sell 10 FXP May $28 calls for $1 ($1,000)
     


  34. Phil – "FU/Jabob – I hope you have hedges because they are all going to get a lot cheaper if the market tanks.  I would consider UUP yours… "

    Nice repartee and nicely played.  LMAO and along those lines…

    Phil is yesterdays oil draw down seasonality in yesterdays oil report or a one off?  Either way, this works well to stoke oil coming into the beginning of June and set up the bulls.  If a confluence of events occurs in June, things could get very interesting.  Normally we don't repeat or cater to ADD, soundbyte types, if you missed it, at your own peril.  But we feel these items need repetition here…

    Remember this April 13th Nattering about the Hacienda Hedge.  

     

    Last year, the contango caused a lack of VL & ULCC's, which were being used as floating storage. To plug their budget financing needs and reduce supply, the Saudis have been shipping at sub market prices to stockpiling China. Both caused shipping rates and oil prices to demonstrate signs of reflation. Mid year, during Hacienda Days, price dropped $7.

     

    One of the worlds largest oil hedges just liquidated the last of his longs on May 5th, see here.  After this setup heading into June, the hammer could start to drop on oil in the first days of June, with a $10-12pb overall decline. With a bad summer, Fed raise, or other key events occurring, that decline could extend all the way to August with a $20pb decline or worse yet, further. Check a historical chart and TBD.

    Interesting codicil and completely related to the above… As we Nattered yesterday, at some point TBD, the BIG PUNCH BOWL potentially getting taken away could be a trigger or inflection point for this happy daze market. 

    To reiterate yesterdays advisory, The Fed may or may not tighten 25 bps in June, but there will be something much nastier in the woodshed, viz. buried in the minutia of the minutes or the announcements regarding their taper on bond purchases and the shrinking of the portfolio, which equates to the contraction of a really big punch bowl or slush fund for asset market speculation by banks.

    Refer to our April 20th Nattering here regarding minutia in the minutes viz. the last time they took away some punch… 

     

    Now think oil, ensuing contraction ends mid July, but reported mid August.  June – July check an oil chart, remember all QE periods raised the price of oil.  The banks had to put that money somewhere. On that oil chart pay close attention to June 18th, 2014 (FOMC meeting) and July 9th, 2014 (release of the minutes).  

    It was buried in the minutia, the Fed would end their taper and QE in October.  Note the ensuing carnage in the price of oil and commodities. This just happened to coincide with one of the biggest "dollar" or liquidity squeezes in recent history.  Coincidence? Gibb's Rule #39 – No such thing.

    To get a preview of what could happen to markets, review that chart of OIL from July 9th, 2014 on, then connect the dots. History oft repeats itself, just sayin. Over and over it does and Out.


  35. Every single person the Senate has asked has said "YES", Russia did interfere with the US Elections.  So, if we are positive they did do it, that leaves the questions of 1) On whose behalf and 2) With whose help?  You can't just leave those things unanswered…

    Now they are talking about Condoleeza Rice to head the FBI – what a joke this country is becoming!   Fox guy just said "That would be great, she has a law enforcement background."  I am going to have to seriously look for a place to live in Europe this summer…

    Drop/Jabob – Yes, what will happen is we'll be able to buy more with all that cash we've been saving.

    TEVA/Lunar – I wouldn't do anything on the day of earnings.  TEVA $30.75 and the target on the short puts is fine (15% recovery in two years).  You can buy back the short $50s (0.70) as they'll still be 0.35 in 6 months so may as well free up the slot and the $30s ($3.65) can be rolled to the $25s ($7.35) for $3.70 but I don't consider a roll urgent if it's more than $2.60.  

    SGYP/Pat – A lot of people go in hoping for an earnings pop and, if they don't get it, they bail.  I think it's just playing out slower than most people have patience for. 

    QUIK/Albo – The do seem interesting down here:

    Priming the Pump/Pharm – How can a guy who went to Wharton think he invented "priming the pump" – it's Econ 101!  

    AAPL/Advill – Well I'm not a fan of owning the shares since they don't pay much of a dividend and you are tying up $380,000.  What do you hope to make?  Say they hit $200, that's +$48 x 2,500 = $120,000.  Well, you can simply buy 100 2019 $140 ($25)/$170 ($11) bull call spreads at net $14 ($140,000) and that makes $160,000 at just $170 and you limit your losses to $120,000 and there's no margin so you  have the other $260,000 to play with.

    I wouldn't even sell puts unless they dip but you already did and the short Jan $140 puts are $5.40 but you can sell the 2019 $135 puts for $10 so I'd just sell 10 of those instead and then you could happily double down if AAPL dips and use the new money to roll your $140s to the $130s (if AAPL dips and you want to stay in).  So now we've freed up 2/3 of your cash and 2/3 of your margin and given you 33% more upside while needing just a 10% move higher (1/3).

    Dividends/Burr – I'll do that after lunch.

     

    VRX/Albo – Just waited PATIENTLY until I was pretty sure all their crap had been cleared out.  Still nervous.

    ATI/DM – China crash is killing industrial metals (and steel and coal and infrastructure like CBI).  Also, this FBI BS puts any infrastructure bill from the US way on the back burner.  In the OOP, we have the Oct $17.50/20 bull call spread at 0.90 from 3/20 and we sold the Oct $17.50 puts for $2.70 so it was a net $1.80 credit and our net entry was $15.70, which is where they are.

    Revenues were not the problem:

    Earnings are improving:

    Earnings History

    I'll need to read more but the sell-off seems a bit silly to me.  As a new trade on ATI, I'd sell the Oct $17.50 puts ($3) and buy the $15 ($2.60)/20 ($0.80) bull call spread for $1.80 so you have a $1.20 net credit and a net $16.30 entry but, because you own the $15 calls, the break-even is midway at $15.65, about where we are now and you get 100% of the upside up to potential $6.80 at $20.

    Oil/Criags – Well they've knocked off 150,000 contracts since Monday evening so on a good track with 8 days left.  July is up 150,000 contracts – so it's just the normal BS and sure, it makes sense to go to July because that's going to make or break the cycle. 

    Click for
    Chart
    Current Session Prior Day Opt's
    Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
    Jun'17 47.39 48.22 47.34 47.95 11:25
    May 11


    -

    0.62 359669 47.33 389964 Call Put
    Jul'17 47.81 48.58 47.73 48.31 11:25
    May 11


    -

    0.61 102685 47.70 489556 Call Put
    Aug'17 48.05 48.87 48.03 48.61 11:25
    May 11


    -

    0.59 36703 48.02 139244 Call Put
    Sep'17 48.35 49.20 48.32 48.86 11:25
    May 11


    -

    0.57 16584 48.29 169847 Call Put
    Oct'17 48.70 49.33 48.68 49.15 11:25
    May 11


    -

    0.62 8792 48.53 98386 Call Put
    Nov'17 48.77 49.54 48.77 49.40 11:25
    May 11


    -

    0.63 4204 48.77 64025 Call Put
    Dec'17 48.99 49.76 48.99 49.50 11:25
    May 11


    -

    0.52 26651 48.98 289061 Call Put
    Jan'18 49.32 49.83 49.31 49.66 11:25
    May 11


    -

    0.50 2758 49.16 69726 Call Put

    FXP/Tom – Our target is $28 and we're at $27.12 so I'm not inclined to change it as we only paid $1.50 for the spread so $26.50 is our break-even.  If it stays around $27, I might be inclined to make an August play but those are not out yet.  July $26 calls are $2.10 and the short $29s are 0.80 so net $1.30 and if I could get $1.30-1.50 for the $25/28 spread, I would prefer that.

    Oil/Naybob – Actually, we're long, not short.   OPEC will extend their cuts in the very least and you can't stop the holidays from happening and a strong economy will boost all driving surveys, which still haven't taken lower-milage cars into account so the predictions for demand will grind higher and higher until the actual July 4th numbers disappoint.  THEN we start shorting again.

     

     

      


  36. Phil

     Where does your daily oil contract information come from?

    Thanks


  37. M now yields 6%.

    Put on a spread in M.  Haven't been in it  until now, I guess because of my strong belief in the power of AMZN.

    But Phil, this is starting to remind me of the situation in BBY several years ago.  It was believed by many that AMZN was going to send BBY into bankruptcy. The feeling was "people go to BBY, decide what they want and then buy it from AMZN."  Their stock cratered to below $12, down from $35 the year before.  It's now trading above $50.

    Bought the stock and sold the 2019 $25 calls for $3.60.  Added some 2019 short $20 puts at $2.45 as a kicker.  Would love to get called away early.  Hope my entry is as well timed as yours was in VRX. ;-)


  38. Armchair trade buy stock CM @ 78.51 sell Dec17 80/75 strangle for 6.80 combined div per month 2.02 %


  39. GLW/Phil – have some short calls May 22 (covering stock) with net premium collected on those of 1.02. Stock has powered along and up since these were written. Would like to roll out (and ideally up) but there is noting being offered in way of premium, and get's worse as you go out…  OK if called, (I know it happens when you get in the money). Do you see a roll/play you like with a setup like this?


  40. Indexes on the road to recovery.

    /NG popped higher off their report.

    Oil/QC – This:  http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/CL_.html?exchange

    M/Albo – I agree, huge overreaction on retail though it may be a long-time before they get their groove back but, as you noted, our patience with BBY was rewarded.

    CM/Yodi – We already have them, good bank, nice dividend.

    GLW/Scott – I'm a bit concerned about how fast OLED will spread.  

    Essentially you are being called away and there's nothing to stop that, the thing is, what do you want to do for a new position.  Clearly you'd like to own them for $22 so selling  the 2019 $25 puts for $2.10 is close enough and there's $2 more without having to keep owning them.  I would just do that and maybe buy on the dip if it comes.  Right now, the 2019 $25/30 bull call spread is $2.70 so there's a near double if they go higher for 1/10th the price of the stock but, as I said, I'd rather have the $20/25 spread at that price (now $3.50).


  41. Sold some more VRX, which is up 13% today.

    Pharm – We've been vindicated !


  42. M down 15% now… dangit!


  43. Hi Phil – what would you recommend as a new position on M?


  44. Dividends/Burr – GME we like already and BX we have too.  WPC is a retail REIT – no thanks.  VER had such a big scandal they had to change their name and I'm not super-comfortable with any kind of Retail REITS because, you can say they cherry-pick great properties but the market is being flooded with open space and what happened to your fantastic house when the rest of the market crashed?  They all go down together…

    OHI seems like a safe on but hard to say what TrumpDon'tCare will do to them but I do agree with the logic that they are buffered from that stuff to some extent and already punished in advance though only really flat, not down, but flat with growing earnings seems good to me so a definite yes for them.

    EPD has been in steady decline on revenues but they've kept earnings stable but with oil struggling just to get back to $50, it seems a bit risky.  Same with ETE but those guys have NOT kept earnings up, they barely broke even last year. MAIN is on the list because of special dividends, not ordinary ones so I'm not sure you can count on those.  If government rules change for small business, they are in trouble too.  

    DIN is interesting as they are way off the highs and very reasonably priced.  They might cut the dividend but still a good long-term stock.  

    M/Torquio – See 9:55 comment.


  45. OLED/Phil – do you see OLED as a competitor/threat to GLW? I would expect OLED to be a substrate under something like gorilla glass and not a -replacement-?


  46. My ARR armchair trade  22.5 Oct call was called today. Reloaded the same by buying the stock back at 24.68 and sold the Oct 25 call for .62 cents!


  47. ARR/Yodi – how many dividends did you get to collect on the ARR trade that was called?


  48. ANTM sold the June 185 cherry call for 2.45 against my Jan 19 BCS


  49. yodi, thanks for the suggestions--they look good!


  50. Yodi / CM > Which Dec strangle are you selling? 75 Put $3.95 / 80 Call $3.10
    (CRFA Target $97 / PE 9 / Div Yield on CM is 4.6%)


  51. Phil/Europe: what do you think about Germany ? Can't keep your US citizenship though ? Or is there a way ?


  52. albo/ PCLN puts – I believe it is the time to sell OTM puts. Having got rid of my puts a few months ago, I tipped my toe in the water late last month with selling 5, May 1650 puts @ $15, and yesterday after the drop sold 4, June 1720 puts @ $10.50. I will scale in to 10 – 20 contracts on the way down. Again, these kind of trades come with a government health warning. My 1500/1600 BCSs are intact at the moment.


  53. Aquila CM sold Dec 80 call now 3.10 and the 75 Dec put for 3.95 anual div yield is 6.49% !!!!


  54. Yodi Thxs


  55. Winston, do t trust government health warnings anymore. It's bad for your health. 


  56. Don't


  57. FBI executing a search warrant at GOP Fundraising firm…

    http://www.wbaltv.com/article/fbi-searching-annapolis-fundraiserconsulting-firm/9639787


  58. Armchair trades to load up on is CIM @ 17.88 and sell Dec 18 staddle at 2.10


  59. Jeff / PCLN is a good example of a well run company, with solid fundamentals and plenty opportunities for growth. Yes it needs to be traded cautiously (and of course is not for everybody) but when the trend sets in, with the trading volume to support the price action then trading the upward momentum can be rather rewarding. Sure beats scratching around for crumbs off the table from broken value plays that are submerged in an overhang of stock bought by investors at much higher prices who are waiting to sell every false rally. 


  60. Phil  Your earlier call about a lot of buyers still out here was right on the money. Dip buyers are going to get burned one of these times. Looking for the market to head back down into the close.


  61. Winston PCLN

    Just looked at a Jan19 BCS 1660/1840 for 95.95 and pay for by selling a 1590 put for 115.00

    Pricy stock if put to you ????


  62. Thanks, Winston.


  63. Yodi – not the way to play PCLN. Start with the BCS only. Scale in to short puts and short calls over the life of the contract – and only when the top & bottom of the channel have been touched. 


  64. OLED/Scott – Not them in particular but OLED screens are coming and they are lighter and tougher than what we have now and I'm not sure that there might not be room for other glass covers to be used than GLW's standards.  The glass is now the bottleneck to making the phones thinner and that's dangerous for GLW as they could be usurped by a competitor down the road. 

    ARR/Yodi – Love those guys!  

    Assange/Scott – LOL!  

    Germany/Micro – I like Germany but I love Amsterdam and I like Jersey and Lyon and Lirici, Copenhagen… hmmm, maybe I should just get a camper and travel around like Yodi so the tax man can't find me!  Maybe time to live on The World?  

     FBI/Eichel – Well that can't be good!   The most amazing thing is the media blackout on it.  

    CIM/Yodi – Another fine pick! 

    Close/Den – Yeah I can't imagine why people wouldn't want to take profits into the weekend with all this craziness but they do seem to shake everything off.

    PCLN/Winston, Yodi – I agree as they can turn ugly on you if they drop. 


  65. Hi, Any one else running windows 10 and getting "found some malware" showing up at a frequency of one or two a minute?   I had to turn the sound off as it was sounding like penny arcade—I know they were advised on Monday of a gigantic weakness in their system that allowed access by the hackers/ "Russians" ??? : )


  66. Newt > There was a security update on Tues which includes a malware removal tool… Make sure that you have it installed plus the latest Defender update (Everyone get hit with malware at least once … like conversion to taking regular backups!)

    Windows Malicious Software Removal Tool for Windows 8, 8.1, 10 and Windows Server 2012, 2012 R2, 2016 x64 Edition – May 2017 (KB890830)


  67. Europe / Phil – By then you'll have enough money to buy a Monaco citizenship and won't have to worry about taxes!


  68. Phil, Have you ever looked at MELI, the So. America Amazon, as a speculative buy? Thanks. Strether.


  69. Ugly drops – most stocks tend to get ugly when they drop.


  70. winston are you talking about GNC, FTR, or M???


  71. Found some XON lying around in an account.  Up almost 20% today.  Nice.


  72. M earnings put a damper on TGT recovery.  bummer.


  73. Domino reaction – coming to a market near you?  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y97rBdSYbkg


  74. Malware/Newt, Aquila – Yeah, this is getting out of control.  How long before something really nasty takes a huge amount of computers off-line?

    Monaco/StJ – Not enough good restaurants.  

    MELI/Streth – Seems as overpriced as AMZN is but clearly it never stops AMZN.   Fun for a speculative play.

    That's strange, none of the news I posted in the last hour or so showed up?  

    XON/Albo – Damn, we just missed it, we had the April $22/27 bull call spread in the OOP.


  75. Monaco / Phil – You don't have to live there. Few of the citizens live there full time…


  76. Dominoes/Scott – Could be what a sell-off would look like in this low-volume environment.

    Monaco/StJ – Well I did see an apartment I liked. 

    That works for me…

    Well we almost clawed our way back to even but the RUT took an 0.666% hit.  M finishes down 17% – that's some real panic.

    Comparable store sales during the three months ending in April were down 4.6%, which was worse than the 3.5% decline expected by analysts. Net revenue came in at $5.3 billion, which was shy of the $5.5 billion expected. The company earned $0.24 per share; analysts were expecting $0.35 per share.

     

    “In 2017, we are focused on taking actions to stabilize our brick and mortar business, including the testing and iteration of additional pilot programs in order to bring them to scale in future years,” CEO Jeff Gennette said. “At the same time, we will invest to aggressively grow our digital and mobile business, while continuing the integration of our online and offline experience to allow our customers to shop the way they live.”

    For now, expect sales to continue to fall. Management said it expects comparable store sales to decline between 2.2% and 3.3% in 2017.


  77. I really think that impeachment will be in the cards soon:

    http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/05/obstruction-justice-getting-closer-all-time

    Trump admitted that he called Comey to ask if he was under investigation.

    The president of the United States cannot call the director of the FBI and ask if he is under investigation, especially when the threat of firing the FBI director is obviously hanging in the air. This is indeed fucking bananas.


  78. That's probably in your price range by now Phil! Did you ask if they could also install a Tesla roof to cut down on the electric bill!

    BTW, maybe Advill can confirm but someone mentioned solar hot water heating and if I recall at one point in Spain there was a mandate that all new construction include solar hot water as part of the design. It makes so much sense.


  79. Jabo / gallows humour. I understand the appeal of Value investing, and Phil has a great ability to ride these plays into trouble and then get back on and ride them out of trouble. For many of us, there is a tendency to fall off these 'value plays' at the most inopportune moment. I've had better luck with stocks trending upwards.


  80. Newt – Common Venereal Exposure -  CVE was disclosed over the weekend by Google Project Zero security experts Natalie Silvanovich and Tavis Ormandy.   Microsoft advisory here. Double booster shots of penicillin sited at gluteus maximus are recommended. The computer clap and out.


  81. CVE – Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures – The vulnerability allows attackers to remotely execute code if the Microsoft Malware Protection Engine scans a specially crafted file. When successfully exploited, attackers are able to worm their way into the LocalSystem account and hijack an entire system.

    With such power, they have complete control to install or delete programs, steal information, create new accounts with full user rights and download additional malware, viz. you and your information are screwed.

    In other words, you download a benign email, you don't even have to open it and it's the drip, drip, drip or PC clap.  If your running Microshit with glitter (Windows in any form), get disinfected ASAP. Not to snickered at or given the wave of the hand and out.


  82. peachment/ not until a lot of Republican senators flip.  

    But FBI should go after Sessions now; he clearly obstructed after he said he'd recuse.  That trial could be in a courtroom. 

    Even if they have it on tape from donnie or one of his (many) functionaries that he'd lift the Russian sanctions…and even then, they will try and pretend it is legit quid pro quo,

    The deep trump base still loves him. Elected Republicans are more fearful of them than the collapse of the Republic.


  83. And remember, if your running anything but Microshit Windows Defender, your probably already inoculated.


  84. FTR – so much hate. the "get out at any cost" crowd is just savage.
    FTRPR now down below 32!


  85. Thanks for Silver (SLV).  Nice pop.  Fits in with the general paranoia.  I'll stay with the position for awhile more.

    If we can have fake news, we can have fake money, or rumors of it – not much difference. 


  86. AAPL/Phil:

    Thanks!  just arriving  to TX,  will modify my position.


  87. M – I don't have any, but I do have TGT and JWN… damn. 


  88. Good morning!  

    Futures down a bit but Europe off the lows.   China still having issues but no one seems to care:

    China Stocks Are Tumbling Again. Unlike 2015, World Doesn't Care. Global investors are still shaking off a rout that’s erased more than $560 billion from the value of Chinese equities, making them the world’s worst performers since mid-April. Below are four charts showing just how deep the pain has spread in China’s mainland. Outside of the nation’s borders, investors are indifferent to the weakness in the second-largest equity market after the U.S. The MSCI All-Country World Index is near a record and the VIX Index, the so-called fear gauge for U.S. stocks, is close to its lowest level since 1993.

    Asia Stocks Fall on Consumer Woes, Bonds Hold Gain. Asian stocks declined on concern about the appetite of U.S. consumers to keep spending, while bonds and gold held gains. Weakness in U.S. shares followed through to Japan, Australia and South Korea. Disappointing results from Macy’s Inc. and Kohl’s Corp. added to concerns that Americans continue to hold back from buying goods in the world’s largest economy, dragging the S&P 500 Index lower. Gold held gains as Australian government bonds tracked gains in Treasuries. Oil held close to $48 a barrel. Japan’s Topix index fell 0.3 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index retreated 0.2 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index dropped 0.2 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.5 percent.

    Is A Chinese Recession Imminent? Yield Curve Inverts For First Time Ever

    China to unveil 'One Belt, One Road'

    • China's President Xi is expected to detail plans for his "Belt and Road Initiative" at a forum this weekend.
    • Over fifty agreements are set to be signed to advance the progress of the project, which aims to build a new Silk Road connecting Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
    • The vast logistics and transport network would involve 65 countries that together account for one-third of global GDP.

     

    • The U.S. and China have reached agreement on broad terms to grant U.S. natural gas exporters and certain other industries easier access to Chinese marketsWSJ reports.
    • The governments reportedly will release a joint diplomatic communiqué sometime this month outlining several areas in which the two countries hope to encourage U.S. trade to China, including supplies of liquefied natural gas.
    • The exact provisions on gas exports are unclear, but will call for opening Chinese gas markets and joint investment in infrastructure projects in China needed to process and import LNG, according to the report.
    • Only one U.S. company, Cheniere Energy (NYSEMKT:LNG), has shipped LNG cargoes from the lower 48 states for about a year, but dozens of companies are seeking permits for new, billion dollar facilities, setting the U.S. to become a net exporter of gas by 2018 for the first time since the 1950s.

    • Reshaping their trade relationship, the U.S. and China have revealed a new 10-point package that will see the latter open its market to American companies and agencies.
    • Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the import/export deals on beef, poultry, natural gas, agriculture, financial services and biotechnology will help reduce the massive trade deficit with Beijing.
    • Read the full plan here
    • Germany's economy accelerated in the first quarter, with GDP growing at a quarterly clip of 0.6%, or 2.4% in annualized terms.
    • That means the U.K., Japan, France and Italy all recorded lower growth rates than in Q1.
    • Canada is the only G7 country that may record a stronger first-quarter result when it publishes its estimate in late May.

     

    • Mexico has sent a stark message to the U.S., saying an upcoming visit by government officials to China showed Latin America's second largest economy had other places to export to if NAFTA gets torn up.
    • "We will use (the China visit) geopolitically as strategic leverage" declared Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo. "It sends the signal that we have many alternatives."

    Morgan Stanley(MS) says risk of a recession has decreased to 1-in-4 odds

    Buyout firms sitting on record cash are ready to make some deals this year before it's too late

    Bonds Bid, Stocks Skid But VIX Breaks Another Record

     

    • There's a fresh record high for Bitcoin, as it soars past $1,800, only two days after breaking the $1,700 level and rising more than 300% so far this year.
    • Drivers? Japan recently legalized the cryptocurrency as a payment method and Russia is looking to do the same.
    • This week, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also talked up the potential of blockchain – the technology that underpins Bitcoin

    Saudis reportedly plan to invest $40 billion in US infrastructure

    • U.S. stock index futures are down 0.2% ahead of reports on retail sales and the consumer price index, which will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
    • Any signs of an improving economy or inflationary environment would, all things being equal, boost the dollar as calls for a June rate hike intensify.
    • Oil is down 0.2% at $47.76/bbl, gold is 0.4% higher at $1229/ounce and the 10-year Treasury yield is down 2 bps to 2.37%.
    • The dollar is heading for its best week of the year.
    • It comes ahead of reports forecast to show inflation and retail sales both increasing last month, backing the case for the Fed to keep raising interest rates this year.
    • In addition to U.S. data, investors will be keeping an eye on a two-day meeting in Italy of finance chiefs from the G7.

    In Its Fight Against U.S. Shale Oil, OPEC Risks Lower for LongerWhen Khalid Al-Falih arrived at Davos in late January, the Saudi oil minister was exultant. The output cuts he’d painstakingly arranged with fellow OPEC states and Russia were working so well, he said, they could probably be phased out by June. Almost five months later, U.S. production is rising faster than anyone predicted and his plan has been shredded. In a series of phone calls and WhatsApp messages late last week, Al-Falih told his fellow ministers more was needed, according to people briefed on the talks, asking not to be named because the conversations are private. In their battle to revive the global oil market, OPEC and its allies are digging in for a long war of attrition against shale.

    Why Tesla's(TSLA) Solar Roof Is Just Another Giant Taxpayer Gift To Elon Musk

     

    • Airlines around the world are bracing for a possible expansion of an electronics travel ban to include many routes from Europe to the U.S., but no decision has yet been made by DHS Secretary John Kelly.
    • Representatives from Delta (NYSE:DAL), United (NYSE:UAL) and American (NASDAQ:AALmet with national security officials late Thursday in Washington to discuss threats to aviation security and possible pre-emptive measures.

    From coding to cancer: How AI is changing medicine

    Sprint, T-Mobile up on merger news

    • Sprint (NYSE:S) has begun preliminary merger conversations with T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS), Bloomberg reports, marking the latest attempt to consolidate in a market closely watched by U.S. regulators.
    • M&A talks in the wireless industry had been on hold for almost a year because of an FCC spectrum auction that required participants to avoid negotiating deals until April 27.
    • S +3%; TMUS +1% premarket

     

    • Frontier Communications (NYSE:FTR) has hired away a former leader at Google Fiber to run its field ops.
    • The firm has named Chris Levendos executive VP, Field Operations, replacing John Lass, who plans to retire. Levendos will be on the senior leadership team reporting to CEO Dan McCarthy.
    • Levendos was formerly head of Network Deployment and Operations at Google Fiber, after previously spending 26 years at Verizon (most recently as region president of New York City wireline operations).

    NBC Releases Extended Trump Interview: "No Collusion Between Me And The Russians"


  89. StJean / solar:

    You are right, since 2006 the new constructions are forced to install a solar heat pump which is an array of panels where water is heated, then is stored in a insulated tank where you have a electric heater also that provides hot water in rainy days. 

    It´s quite efficient,and reduce the use of NG or electricity, can be installed in the roof of the buildings (most people lives here in apartments).  Providing electricity is more complicated because we don´t own a roof, perhaps in the future some windows alternatives could become standard


  90. GDX….July 21 23Cs for 1.15…..30 of them…