Archive for September, 2017

Last Minute Poll Shows Huge 80+ Percent Surge For Independence

Courtesy of Mish.

Numerous sites keep posting stats that claim a majority in Catalonia want a vote but do not support independence.

I have stated those polls are old and likely wrong thanks to the pitiful tactics of prime minister Mariano Rajoy.

A new last-minute poll suggests I have this correct.

Please consider Huge upsurge in support for independence is revealed in world exclusive final Catalan poll.

A SENSATIONAL new poll which The National is publishing on the eve of the Catalan independence referendum shows an upsurge in support for independence that varies dramatically depending on whether or not Spain’s central government boycotts the vote.

The telephone poll was carried out over the last three weeks and completed on Thursday, but the results could not be published in Catalonia. They were released to The National yesterday.

Two scenarios were put to a sample of nearly 3300 voters: “With the current situation in Catalonia, with Spanish government and main Spanish political parties calling for a boycott of the referendum,” and “a referendum agreed with the Spanish authorities”.

Jordi Sanchez, president of the Catalan National Congress, welcomed the results and told The National: “This poll confirms there’s a majority of people that want to vote and will vote, and this can’t be stopped by any police or state of emergency.

Ok Rajoy, what are you going to do?

If there is a vote, the expected results are pretty clear.

The Spanish government claims most of the polling places are closed? The Catalonia government says the vote will take place and millions will show up.

Which side is correct?


Continue reading here…





The Truth About Nuclear Proliferation And North Korea

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The U.S. is communicating with North Korea about its nuclear program and testing Pyongyang’s appetite for negotiations, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said in the first public acknowledgment by a senior administration official of direct contact on the matter. As Bloomberg reports,Tillerson, speaking to reporters on Saturday after meeting Chinese officials in Beijing, insisted that the U.S. would never accept a nuclear-armed North Korea.

His remarks offered the clearest glimpse so far into U.S. strategy, and suggested a willingness to get to the negotiating table with Kim Jong Un’s regime — even after President Donald Trump tweeted in August that “talking is not the answer!”

“We are probing, so stay tuned,” Tillerson said.

“We can talk to them, we do talk to them directly, through our own channels,” adding that the U.S. has “a couple, three channels open to Pyongyang.”

All of which was 'good' news in a time when we need some. However, a few hours later, the State Department commented that…

"North Korean officials have shown no indication that they are interested in or are ready for talks regarding denuclearization."

And that, as Jim Rickards warns below, is why war is coming…

Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,

I’ve been arguing for months that we are headed for war with North Korea because of its nuclear program.

This brings us to the topic of nuclear proliferation.

Nuclear proliferation of the kind we are seeing in North Korea is nothing new. The U.S., Soviet Union (now Russia), U.K. and France all had nuclear weapons by 1960. China joined the club in the mid-1960s.

India and Pakistan started becoming nuclear powers in the 1970s. Israel has never officially announced it has nuclear weapons, but it is well-known that Israel possesses them. At various times, South Africa, Brazil, Iran, Syria, Iraq and Libya have pursued nuclear weapons development.

The Iranian program is the only one of those that is still active.

Critics of any effort to attack North Korea to stop its nuclear weapons program point to this extensive proliferation over 60 years as a reason not to risk war.

According


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TEPCO Admits Contaminated Water Leaked Into Fukushima Groundwater “Due To Erroneous Gauges”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In a revelation that, for some, will dredge up memories of TEPCO’s stunning admission back in 2013 that nearly 300 tonnes of radioactive material had leaked from the ruins of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear-power plant into the water outside, contaminating virtually the entire Pacific Ocean, officials at the Japanese power company told the Associated Press that contaminated water may have leaked into the soil surrounding the plant after human error caused safety mechanisms to fail.

TEPCO officials said the settings on six of the dozens of wells surrounding the plant’s ruined reactors were accidentally set 70 centimeters below the required levels, briefly causing groundwater at one well to sink below the contaminated water inside in May, possibly allowing radioactive water to leak into the soil.

Fortunately, groundwater samples have shown no abnormal increase in radioactivity and leaks to the outside are unlikely, according to TEPCO spokesman Shinichi Nakakuki.

The problem with the wells – most of which were drilled in April to help pump groundwater, reducing the possibility that it would be exposed to contamination -  was discovered earlier this week while the company was preparing to drill another well. While Tepco maintained several wells around the plant before the disaster, many more have been drilled since to try and stanch the flow of radioactive materials from the plant.

It has been six-and-a-half years since a massive earthquake and tsunami critically damaged the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear-power plant, located about 200 miles away from Tokyo, triggering the worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl – and the Japanese people are still uncovering new evidence of TEPCO's dishonesty and incompetence demonstrated during the aftermath of the disaster.

Of course, while the coverup was happening, few in the media dared to entertain suspicions that the company might be acting in bad faith – after all, what serious organization would so brazenly defy the public’s trust, not to mention local laws?

But five years later, those conspiracy theories were transformed into conspiracy facts when TEPCO’s then-President Naomi Hirose admitted last year on NHK that his company intentionally concealed the reactor meltdowns at the Fukushima plant immediately after the storm. The power company didn't officially admit the meltdowns until more than


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A Market In Which “Shocks No Longer Shock”: Deutsche’s Kocic Explains How To Trade It

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Back in June, one of Wall Street's more philosophical derivatives strategists, DB's Aleksandar Kocic looked at the state of the market and postulated that far from "stable" the existing risk  "equilibrium" is one which can be described as "metastable", the result of widespread complacency, and which he compared to an avalanche where "a totally innocuous event can trigger a cataclysmic event (e.g. a skier’s scream, or simply continued snowfall until the snow cover is so massive that its own weight triggers an avalanche." Putting it in his usual post-modernist style, Kocic said that "complacency encourages bad behavior and penalizing dissent – there is a negative carry for not joining the crowd, which further reinforces bad behavior."

This is the source of the positive feedback that triggers occasional anxiety attacks, which, although episodic, have the potential to create liquidity problems. Complacency arises either when everyone agrees with everyone else or when no one agrees with anyone. In these situations, which capture the two modes of recent market trading, current and the QE period, the markets become calm and volatility selling and carry strategies define the trading landscape. But, calm makes us worry, and persistent worrying causes fear, and fear tends to be reinforcing.

Kocic framed the current state of the market as follows:

Unfortunately, the relentless grind ever lower in volatility, which as reported yesterday has resulted in both the lowest average September VIX on record…

… as well as the lowest September monthly settlement on record and only the second sub-10 monthly settlement… 

… appears to have finally unsettled Kocic' expectations, even if ever so tacitly implied, for a spike higher in suppressed vol, and as he writes in his latest ruminations on volatility, "as volatility continues to be unfazed by what lies ahead in the near term, short of surprises in inflation, we are likely to linger at low levels."

Following up to his note from last week, which explained how the Fed's fake "transparency" killed long-term investor, Kocic writes that "as transparency became the word of the decade, by its very nature it created


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Georgetown Bank Teller Steals $185,000 From Homeless Customer With Garbage Bag Full Of Cash

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Where did all this money come from?

That’s probably the first question that Phelon Davis of District Heights, Maryland, asked himself when a homeless man shuffled into the Wells Fargo branch in Georgetown where Davis worked as a teller three years ago and tried to deposit a garbage bag full of cash.

His next question was probably "do you think he'd notice if some of it went missing?"

Instead of helping the customer deposit the money into his account, Davis instead decided to take advantage of the situation, setting up a fraudulent second account under the customers’ name and eventually stealing more than $185,000 from the man, according to the Washington Post.

The 29-year-old bank teller stole more than $185,000 from a homeless customer who tried to deposit a garbage bag full of cash at a Wells Fargo branch in Georgetown.

In a deal with prosecutors, Davis pleaded guilty this week to one federal felony count of interstate transportation of stolen property, which is punishable by up to 10 years in prison.

Deepening the intrigue surrounding the story, the court filings didn’t name the man, or furnish an explanation as to how he came to possess such a large sum of cash. It describes the man only as a "street vendor."

Here’s WaPo with more:

The victim was unnamed in court filings but was described as a homeless street vendor and longtime Wells Fargo customer who had more than one account that had gone dormant because of a lack of activity.

Court filings did not identify the customer or say why a homeless person would have a large amount of cash in a bag when he showed up at the M Street NW branch where Davis worked. Outside the courtroom, Davis’s attorney, Bruce Allen Johnson Jr., said he also did not know how the individual came to have the cache of cash. “That’s the million-dollar question,” Johnson said.

In plea papers, Davis acknowledged that the customer had “thousands of dollars of cash” that he wanted to deposit in October 2014, but he lacked identification. Davis told the customer where to get ID documents


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Expanded Russell 2000 Breakout – Nasdaq Ready to Follow

Courtesy of Declan.

Yesterday saw big gains for the Russell 2000 as it accelerated past breakout support. A large part of this buying was likely driven by short covering but today’s defense of those highs is a vote of confidence by buyers who are looking to hold for longer than a few days. The target of 1,560 is the first overbought target to aim for at the 85th percentile rising to 1,637 for the 95th percentile (of historical prices going back to 1987).






The Nasdaq is back on the breakout watch after an earlier scare in the move back to the 50-day MA / rising support channel.





The Nasdaq 100 is lagging a little behind the Nasdaq and isn’t as well set for a breakout but from a risk:reward perspective it’s offering the best value for buyers.





The S&P maintains its steady trend higher with little reason for holders to sell or for shorts to jump in. Technicals are also in a healthy state – another good sign for longs.





For tomorrow it’s mostly a watch-and-wait. The Nasdaq is the index best placed to deliver momentum traders a reward. Value players may want to take a punt on the Nasdaq 100, especially if the Nasdaq makes a genuine push to break resistance.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




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Eve of the Vote: Mish Reader on Vacation Sends Video of Barcelona Counter Protest

Courtesy of Mish.

Reder David is on vacation in on vacation Catalonia. He is now in Barcelona and will go fly fishing in the Pyrenees. He sent videos that he took of a peaceful anti-independence protest in Barcelona.

David Writes …

Buenos Dias du Barcelona, Mish. On a long-ago scheduled visit to Barcelona and the Pyrenees (fly fishing), my lucky day, having a prime spot for the big demonstration this afternoon. I will try to send videos taken on my phone this afternoon.

The demonstration was lively and friendly. On a mild day, with very light rain, the demonstration began at 400pm (local time) and passed slowly under my window for over 30 minutes. I am not a crowd estimator by any means, but I would the guess the group was perhaps 20,000 people, mostly younger.

In chatting with people, I’m still not sure about the clarity of the basis for the actions. Catalunya and the rest of Spain have a long history. The ‘aftertaste’ of Franco, including the executions and disappearances of thousands of people, influence the social mood. A strong social competition exists between Madrid and Barcelona. The lingering effects of the recent economic collapse also influences opinion. Unemployment remains a huge problem, and especially younger people feel they have been screwed over by decisions made long ago and far away (in Brussels and in Germany). They feel they have no voice in the things that matter to them. I ask ‘where to go for a good job,’ they say ‘Germany.’

By the way, on my first visit here, I offer my highest recommendation. Catalonia offers great food and wine, history and culture, gracious hospitality, and favorable prices for goods and services. Already I imagine a return visit.

Barcelona, si. Catalunya, si.

David

Note: The MOV file David sent was much sharper than the result from a Google upload to YouTube.

Tensions Mount

The Guardian reports Catalonia riven with tension as referendum day arrives.

Catalonia was tense this weekend ahead of an independence referendum that has divided Spain. At the final rally, the Catalan president, Carles Puigdemont, said the region was only one step away from independence. “We’ve got this far and we have until Sunday to win,” he told the crowd on Friday evening.

The authorities have confiscated voting papers and ballot boxes,


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Brewing a great cup of coffee depends on chemistry and physics

Courtesy of Christopher H. HendonUniversity of Oregon

File 20170925 17462 1pcmbbe

What can you do to ensure a more perfect brew? Chris Hendon, CC BY-ND

Coffee is unique among artisanal beverages in that the brewer plays a significant role in its quality at the point of consumption. In contrast, drinkers buy draft beer and wine as finished products; their only consumer-controlled variable is the temperature at which you drink them.

Why is it that coffee produced by a barista at a cafe always tastes different than the same beans brewed at home?

It may be down to their years of training, but more likely it’s their ability to harness the principles of chemistry and physics. I am a materials chemist by day, and many of the physical considerations I apply to other solids apply here. The variables of temperature, water chemistry, particle size distribution, ratio of water to coffee, time and, perhaps most importantly, the quality of the green coffee all play crucial roles in producing a tasty cup. It’s how we control these variables that allows for that cup to be reproducible.

How strong a cup of joe?

Besides the psychological and environmental contributions to why a barista-prepared cup of coffee tastes so good in the cafe, we need to consider the brew method itself.

Science helps optimize the coffee. Chris Hendon, CC BY-ND

We humans seem to like drinks that contain coffee constituents (organic acids, Maillard products, esters and heterocycles, to name a few) at 1.2 to 1.5 percent by mass (as in filter coffee), and also favor drinks containing 8 to 10 percent by mass (as in espresso). Concentrations outside of these ranges are challenging to execute. There are a limited number of technologies that achieve 8 to 10 percent concentrations, the espresso machine being the most familiar.

There are many ways, though, to achieve a drink containing 1.2 to 1.5 percent coffee. A pour-over, Turkish, Arabic, Aeropress, French press, siphon or batch brew (that is, regular drip)…
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California Assemblyman Promises Bill To Ban Gas Cars By 2040

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

San Francisco Assemblyman Phil Ting would like for you to know that he has every intention of introducing new legislation in 2018 that will (i) make it much more difficult for low-income Californians to buy affordable vehicles and (ii) increase greenhouse gas emissions.  Of course, Ting didn't word it in exactly that way but his proposal to ban combustion-engine vehicles will inevitably result in both of the unintended consequences above.

As the Sacramento Bee points out this morning, Ting has promised to introduce his destructive legislation in January saying at some point you just need to "put a line in the sand."

France and the United Kingdom are doing it. So is India. And now one lawmaker would like California to follow their lead in phasing out gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles.

When the Legislature returns in January, Assemblyman Phil Ting plans to introduce a bill that would ban the sale of new cars fueled by internal-combustion engines after 2040. The San Francisco Democrat said it’s essential to get California drivers into an electric fleet if the state is going to meet its greenhouse gas reduction targets, since the transportation sector accounts for more than a third of all emissions.

“The market is moving this way. The entire world is moving this way,” Ting said. “At some point you need to set a goal and put a line in the sand.”

“California is used to being first. But we’re trying to catch up to this,” Ting said.

Meanwhile, we suspect that Ting will ignore the fact that California's previous attempt to push electric cars on consumers has been a complete failure…presumably because people would prefer to not spend way more for a car that has half the performance of a gas car and doubles their electricity bill…just a hunch.

California already committed five years ago to putting 1.5 million “zero-emission vehicles,” such as electric cars and plug-in hybrids, on the road by 2025. By that time, the state wants these cleaner models to account for 15 percent of all new car sales.

But progress has been modest so far, as consumers wait for prices to drop and battery ranges to improve, or opt for


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“They Won’t Know What Hit Them” Shocking Undercover Footage Exposes Antifa’s “Premeditated” Violence

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As if the public needed any more evidence that violence is a central part of Antifa’s mission, conservative comedian Steve Crowder has published footage that he and his producer surreptitiously recorded after infiltrating a local Antifa cell and accompanying it to a protest at the University of Utah.

The shockingly candid footage offers a disturbing glimpse into the innerworkings of Antifa – a loosely organized band of far-left agitators – and the central tenant of violent resistance that encapsulates the group's philosophy. The footage primarily focuses on a transgender woman, the purported leader of a small cell of Antifa protesters, who can be heard telling Crowder's producer that she’s armed with a handgun, and that she expects reinforcements to arrive later with “two AKs”. The organizer can also be heard recommending that Crowder’s producer buy a small blade at a military surplus store and strap it to his ankle “just in case.”

What they show appears to confirm that the group protesters were planning to disrupt a speaking event hosted by conservative commentator and Daily Wire founder Ben Shapiro, whom Antifa has accused of being a nazi despite the fact that he is Jewish. Shapiro's recent appearances at UC Berkeley and other university campuses drew protests, with demonstrators labeling him a “fascist.”

But perhaps the most surprising thing about the footage was the fact that mainstream media reporters AND police essentially told Crowder & Co. to get lost when they shared it with them.

In another shocking excerpt, the Antifa leader – whom Crowder didn’t name because he said he didn’t want to “dox” anybody, though he added that police have confirmed that they have been monitoring her – described a plan to lure right-wing demonstrators to a secluded area where, presumably, they would be attacked by Antifa.

“Plain clothes, hard tactics, I don’t think they’ll know what hit them. Because they’re not prepared for what we’re planning,” the organizer says at one point.

In the video, another unnamed Antifa member who goes by the pseudonym Clark can be heard explaining that the difference between Antifa and other activist groups is a “willingness to respond with violence.”

As we’ve


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Phil's Favorites

The PhilStockWorld com LIVE Weekly Webinar - 07-17-19

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

Major Topics:

00:02:11 Indexes Charts
00:02:59 Energy Charts
00:04:28 S&P500
00:18:48 Money Talk Portfolio
00:31:25 7 Steps to Consistently Making 30-40% Annual Returns
00:35:41 Top Trades
00:45:33 Long Term Portfolio
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Zero Hedge

This Is Where The Next Recession Will Start: An Epidemiological Study

By Nicholas Colas of DataTrek

(Published at ZeroHedge)

US recessions are like epidemics: they all begin somewhere, and the “tell” is state-level unemployment data. For example, the end of the 2000 dot com bubble hit Connecticut and Massachusetts first – two hubs for the financials services industry with lots of affluent investors to boot. The end of the 2000s housing boom predictably impacted Florida and Nevada before the rest of the country. This time around, the data shows the manufacturing-heavy states of Michigan, Ohio and Indiana are most at risk. No wonder “Dr. Fed” wants to inoculate the region with lower interest rates.

When medical professionals study epidemics, they look for the source of the ou...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Suddenly Panic-Bid, Bitcoin Back Above $10k

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following further selling pressure overnight, someone (or more than one) has decided to buy-the-dip in cryptos this morning, sending Bitcoin (and most of the altcoins) soaring...

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Bitcoin surged back above $10,000...

Ethereum bounced off suppo...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver ETF (SLV) Testing Dual Breakout Resistance

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Silver (NYSEARCA: SLV) has been in a bit of a slumber when compared to the price action for Gold (NYSEARCA: GLD).

Precious metals bulls hope that this about to change, as bullish action from Silver is necessary to confirm any bull market / move in metals.

Today’s chart takes a closer look at the Silver ETF (SLV) on a weekly basis. As you can see, Silver is up 5 percent this week alone.

This is good news for metals bulls. But this rally isn’t confirming a breakout just yet.

As you can see in the chart below, SLV has been trading between support (1) ...



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Insider Scoop

Analysts Weigh In On Netflix's Rocky Quarter

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) reported second-quarter results highlighted by an uncharacteristic decline in U.S. subscribers while international subscriber adds missed expectations. Here is a summary of how some of the Street's top analysts reacted to the print.

The Analysts

Mor...



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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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ValueWalk

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

 

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

Courtesy of Jacob Wolinsky, ValueWalk

ValueWalk’s Q&A session with Professor Shubha Ghosh, a professor of law and the director of the Syracuse Intellectual Property Law Institute. In this interview, Professor Ghosh discusses his background, the Human Genome Project, the current state of gene editing, 3D printing for organ operations, and gene editing regulation.

...

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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Charts show us the golden brick road to high prices.

GLD Gann Angle has been working since 2016. Higher prices are expected. Who would say anything different, and why and how?

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



The GLD very wide channel shows us the way.
- Conservative: Tag the 10 year rally starting in 2001 to 2019 and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 10 years.
- Aggressive: Tag the 5 year rally starting in 1976 to 2019  and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 5 years.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if ima...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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