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Just Another Manic Monday – World War 3 Edition

This picture from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) taken on August 29, 2017 and released on August 30, 2017 shows North Korea's intermediate-range strategic ballistic rocket Hwasong-12 lifting off from the launching pad in Pyongyang.Nuclear-armed North Korea said on August 30 that it had fired a missile over Japan the previous day, the first time it has ever acknowledged doing so. / AFP PHOTO / KCNA VIA KNS / STR / South Korea OUT / REPUBLIC OF KOREA OUT ---EDITORS NOTE--- RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT Yes, I know no one cares, BUT:

On CNN yesterday, UN Ambassador Nikki Haley said the United Nations Security Council has just about reached the limit of its ability to economically punish North Korea.  Responding to a question by CNN’s Dana Bash about whether President Donald Trump’s famous “fire and fury” remark was an empty threat, Haley insisted that the US has held back out of a sense of “responsibility.” But now that diplomatic solutions appear to be dwindling, she would be “perfectly happy handing the situation off to Defense Secretary James Mattis, the source of some of the US’s harshest rhetoric against North Korea. Mattis, Haley said, would “take care of it.”   



“What we’re doing is being responsible where North Korea is being irresponsible and reckless. We were being responsible by trying to use every diplomatic possibility that we could possibly do. We’ve pretty much exhausted all the things that we could do at the Security Council at this point.”


“I said yesterday I’m perfectly happy kicking this over to General Mattis because he has plenty of military options. So, I think that the fire and fury – while he said this is what we can do to North Korea – we want to be responsible and go through all diplomatic means to get their attention first. If that doesn’t work, General Mattis will take care of it.”

Former chief strategist Steve Bannon, has admitted that the White House doesn’t have a viable military strategy for North Korea where “ten million people in Seoul don’t die in the first 30 minutes from conventional weapons.”  Wow – so happy Monday to you and Jimmy Crack Corn 'cause the markets don't care – hovering at their all-time highs this morning and even up a bit in the Futures at Dow 22,300 (we're short /YM), S&P 2,503, Nasdaq (100) 6,004 and Russell 1,435 (we're short /TF).  

Oil, amazingly was still at $50 this morning and we're still shorting that too (/CL) – so lots to do on a Monday, even though the action on the first day of the week is usually low-volume BS.  We could see a lot of action as Trump speaks to the UN this afternoon.  After denouncing the organization throughout his campaign, he now has to get them to work with the US to contain North Korea.

Trump's tweet early Sunday morning was considered so juvenile ahead of the UN Assembly (North Korea will be there too) that his advisors have removed it, but it's a bit late, as you can't get things really "off" the Internet and it was up all day yesterday.    China, in fact, has REFUSED to cut oil exports off to North Korea, saying instead it was American leaders who needed to tone down their rhetoric and come to the negotiating table.  China's ambassador said they will implement all United Nations Security Council resolutions, “no more, no less. 

So it is 100% up to President Donald Trumps diplomatic skill to avert a war that can quickly escalate to involve South Korea, China and Japan – in the very least.  May God have mercy on our souls!  

Image result for us pollute planetSpeaking of mercy and the number 3, there are three more storms forming in the Atlantic with Hurricane Maria forcast to rapidly strenghten and follow the same awful path as Irma.  Thank goodness Global Warming is a myth of we might have to do something about these storms.  

In fact, since the US abidicated it's leadership in Climate Control, the rest of the World is moving on without us and the EU is teaming up with China to pass rules, which will lead to US getting sanctioned and boycotted if we continue to recklessly pollute the planet.  

Oil (/CL) is already back to $49.50 so we'll take that $500 per contract profit and we'll wait for the bounce and reload our shorts either back below the $49.50 line or at the $50 line – either way with tight stops.  As I demonstrated in last week's Live Trading Webinar, we can keep our losses very low (risk) against a fairly high reward by simply combining good stop lines with disciplined position management techniques.   

As of Friday's NYMEX close, there were still 132,600 fake, Fake, FAKE!!! open orders and those all have to be sold or rolled by Wednesday.  Last Wednesday there were 308,000 fake orders and, if the sudden disappearance of more than half of them hasn't convinced you this whole thing is a scam – just watch it for 2 more days and watch the rest of the US's oil disappear to create an artificial shortage.  

Related imageThat's right, if the CRIMINAL traders at the NYMEX didn't cancel their LEGAL, BINDING CONTRACTS for delivery of 308M barrels of oil (1,000 per contract) to the US in October – there wouldn't be a shortage anywhere as we'd be swimming in oil and prices would come down and everyone would be happy.  Everyone but their bosses – who pay them to create artificial shortages and jack up the price of oil and gasoline for consumers (See: "Goldman's $2.5 Trillion Global Oil Scam Discovered").

That's why we were able to make $500 per contract in just over an hour this morning, they make BILLIONS manipulating the price and we're able to pick up millions on our contrary trades.  Speaking of Millions – if you followed my Friday Trade Idea to short all 169,159 remaining contracts at $50 – you would now be up 0.50 per barrel, which is up $84,579,500.  That's pretty good for a Monday – you're welcome

Since there are stil 132,000 contracts left, we can see they canceled 37,000 on Friday but now it's crunch time and they have to get rid of at least 40,000 per day, which is going to be very hard to do into expiration so I'm projecting $48.50, which would gain us another $169,159,000 if we held all those contracts through to the bitter end.  But we don't do that, we take our quick profits, get out and wait for the next good set-up (see above).  

Still, our Trade Idea of the Week for our Institutional Traders is shorting those 132,000 contracts below the $49.50 line with a target of $48.50 and $132,000,000 in profits by Wednesday.  And don't complain just because you aren't an institution with $500M in margin to play with – last Monday, in our PSW Morning Report, we also said we liked Natural Gas (/NGZ7) long on the December contracts at $3.07 and those are now $3.32 – up 0.25 at $100 per penny, per contract for $2,500 gains in a week.   Margins on those contracts are just $1,870 each!  

Remember, I can only tell you what is likely to happen and how to profit from it – the rest is up to you!  

I'm sorry that we're still bearish but that's what the data tells us to be and we are Fundamental Traders so we don't play sentiment (except in that it's a fundamental factor) but we do play the economy and, very quietly, ahead of the Fed meeting on Wednesday (2pm), the Atlanta Fed has taken down their Q3 GDP forecats by just under 50%.   That's right – remember when I told you there was no F'ing way we'd hit 3.5%, let alone 4% – well, now it's 2.2% and falling:

We already adjusted our portfolios and added to our hedges last week and, as noted above, we're shorting oil and the index futures too so we'll see how long it takes the market to catch on to the concept that, if the GDP growth has been revised down 50% since Aug 1st – maybe the market shouldn't be higher than it was on Aug 1st?  Just a thought….


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  1. Good morning from New York City! How much is Twitter paying DT for these shenanigans on their platform? Does up the amount of traffic.

  2. Almost over the 10% line everywhere…

  3. Global warming is a hoax being perpetrated on our farmers:

    As temperatures rise globally because of climate change, Georgia is not the only part of the country where warm winters are causing trouble for farmers. California’s cherry crop took a hit in 2014 because of a warm, dry winter. And in 2012, after a warm February and March brought early blooms, Michigan’s apple crop was decimated by an April frost. Farmers have always been at the mercy of the environment, but now agricultural catastrophes brought on by warm winters seem likely to occur with greater frequency.

  4. Speaking of WW3, someone who saved the world in the 80's recently died:

    On September 26, 1983, Soviet military officer Stanislav Petrov received a message that five nuclear missiles had been launched by the United States and were heading to Moscow. He didn’t launch a retaliatory strike, believing correctly that it was a false alarm. And with that, he saved the world from nuclear war. But now reports have surfaced that Petrov died this past May. He was 77 years old.

    We didn't know how close we were to total destruction then… We might of course be just as close now.

  5. So what's the alternative to living in constant fear? It ain't easy cuz our rulers like it that way…

  6. Good Morning.

  7. ~~•CLF CEO bought 100,000 shares at $7.11 worth ~$711k

  8. TEVA completes the asset sales and the POS is under 18 again. WTF!

    FU RBC!!!!!!

  9. I flipped short on oil near the close on Fri too thinking it was a bit too far too fast… but your comments about the fake orders… which can be closed at a profit now? Just trying to understand how that's a problem for "them". They don't have to roll the contracts, do they? Can't they just close at a profit now? Might pull back a bit, just trying to understand why we would have much of a drop here. They got their excuse to raise retail gasoline and those prices are holding around here… more hurricanes, isn't that potentially bullish for oil?

  10. Phil – question on recent IBM trade

    I recently put on a smaller version of your IBM trade recommendation. 

    Sold 5 IBM Jan 2020 $120 puts

    Bought 10 IBM Jan 2020 $140 calls

    Sold 5 IBM Jan 2020 $160 calls 

    Typically my plays have been sell puts + bull call spread. But i liked the idea of keeping 5 of the calls uncovered and selling shorter term calls along the way. First time I'm trying it out though, just want to make sure I've got my plan straight. 

    So to compliment the above position I'm thinking I'll sell 5 of the $150 Jan 2018 calls and collect +$1650 or so. If they expire worthless, great rinse and repeat.

    If they IBM is at or above $150 near expiration I will roll them; buy them back and sell perhaps a slightly higher strike June 2018 call? Which i should be able to do without taking a loss, possibly even pick up a little more premium?

    Then we're back to square one, if those expire worthless great, if not I roll forward and up again. Worst case scenario I continue to roll them until they hit the Jan 2020 expiration at which point my calls are fully covered and my bull spread effectively closed off? 

    It makes sense to me. I think in your original IBM play you suggested selling more short term calls then were covered by your long calls (i.e. you had 20 long calls, 15 short calls, and you were selling 10 short term calls against). I take it this is just a slightly more aggressive way of playing it? Is there a general plan you follow when selling more short term calls then you have the ability to cover? Or do you just hope that on one of your rolls they will expire, and in the worst case scenario if the stock runs away you buy some additional calls at a higher strike to cover the extra and cap your losses? 


    If anyone else has experience with these type of plays and wants to chime in, appreciate any ideas / feedback. I think Yodi may do something similar to this? 

  11. Just grabbed some IWM puts since they are giving them away…

  12. Phil – On June 26, I mentioned that I started two new positions.  Bought TUES for $1.85 and TOO for $1.84.  Sold some TUES up 40% and some TOO up 46%.  Still holding some short puts.

  13. WTG Albo!

  14. Good morning!  

    It's very like 1999 now – any day we don't crash is a reason to rally at this point.  All we can do is roll our hedges and nurture the longs for as long as it lasts.  It's like a runaway train – if we get off (cash out), we may not be able to get back on but we're pretty sure it's going to end in a crash – we just don't know when. 

    Despite closing at a new high, 1/3 of the S&P is below the 50 dma.  An optimist would say that means we have a lot of room to run, I guess.

    Certainly it's a trend we should keep our eye on.  

    Bitcoin $4K again. 

    This is great, Boise State has a dog that retrieves the tee after the kick-off:


    Twitter/Hkg – You're right, they should pay him.  This has been fantastic for Twitter, who were in trouble before Trump got everyone paying attention to them again.  

    Big Chart/StJ – My bad, I didn't get to it but NYSE 10% over is definitely the final sign that we need a bigger chart.  Interesting that the NYSE is miles behind the others.  

    Speaking of global warming crops – let's watch coffee as this is the time of year we'll get a lot of crop reports:

    TEVA/Jabob – Hopefully they are selling the right divisions.  Says they will pay down $5Bn in debt this year – that's good.  

    Petrov/StJ – That's cool but it makes me wonder if that was the only time it happened?

    Alternative/Mkucs – I don't go for constant fear.  I just acknowledge it and let it become part of my overall safety calculation.  Like going to Europe this summer – there were terrorist attacks in London and Paris but less so than people getting hit by a car in NYC overall – so we went.  

    Image result for i will not fear fear is the mindkiller

    CLF/Albo – I don't know, I'm a bit concerned by iron ore prices dropping but that does make me feel better. 

    Oil/Mkucs – No, someone has to want to buy 1,000 barrels of oil for delivery in October (to Cushing) for them to close a contract.  The NYMEX does allow them to be rolled to longer months for the next of the spread, which is how the market is exploited – it's total BS!  In theory, as more and more people want to get out of Oct at the last minute – they won't find buyers and those that don't want to pay 0.50 to roll will sell their barrels for lower prices – though still maybe a profit for them since we're up so much.  Almost all of the people who buy the Oct contracts as they come down buy them just to roll them to Nov or longer and, in the end, there will be less than 20,000 contracts actually delivered (20Mb) our of about 6Bn traded during the month.  

    The more hurricanes thing is what's messing things up.  More people than usual willing to risk a bet on Oct oil – in case there's a disruption.  If not, then they'll still find buyers at some price.  

    IBM/CRS – That's right, your worst case is rolling to 2020 $150s (can't be worse than that) and then you'd have a bit less of a spread than you planned but that's super-unlikely and the Jan $150s are $3.50 and the 2020 $185s are $3.50 so IBM would have to spike $30 on you before you couldn't roll the Jan $150s to something higher.  

    Selling more is because we have 15 x $20 for coverage and then we have 5 open and the anticipated roll so well over 20 x $20 ($40,000) in the money before we lose anything on the 5 naked calls which means they'd have to go $80 in the money before we net negative so I'd rather risk that (small risk) and double my collections for 2 years.

    And yes, we can always buy more longs AFTER the stock has gone up and shown us it's good to buy more longs.  On the whole, this is why it takes YEARS of practice to get good at these – you have to go through the process and make the adjustments over time to get the feel of how they go.  That will give you more confidence. 

    Nice job Albo, thanks!  

  15. Thanks, Mkucstars & Phil.  Sometimes the dumpster diving pays off, but certainly not always.

  16. Phil,

    With all indices over our lines, are you capitulating on your /TF shorts? 

  17. Thanks for the explanation Phil, I think i'll start by selling 5 of the Jan 2018 $150's and roll them if needed, once i get more comfortable with these plays I can try selling more.

  18. CRS IBM,

    Been doing these plays already for some time.

    If a stock like IBM is again on the lower side of the scale and you are bullish on the play in general, it is always a good idea to sell only 1/2 the short leap caller. If the stock starts going up your long call gives you always more bang for the money, as in the same case the short caller obviously will run against you in relation to the delta of Leap long and short call.  Different to Phil's play if the stock is on the lower scale I like to sell the same amount of leap putters than the BCS. Both, Long call and short put positions will run to your credit if the stock climbs.

    Always a good idea to sell half the amount of short calls one or two month ahead. Meaning Oct or Nov. I call them cherry calls in my plays.

    Once the stock has gone up you can always sell the rest of the leap callers for a much better price. All depends how much money you wish to spend for initiate the play.

  19. Fiber optic stocks up nicely, led by AAOI up 12%.

  20. phil/MRK, any thoughts on MRK--do you think it pops $66 this time?

  21. Wheee on oil (again).  

    That's down 1% at $49.35, let's go for 2.5% ($48.50). 

    /TF/Japar – No, I'm back to 10 and seeing how they go tomorrow.   No major damage.  I just don't have time to start at them and go in and out all day so I just leave them – cost of doing business as I can't optimize my entries and exits. 

    Rolls/Crs – Sure, just check in when you need to and we'll go over the strategy.  By 2020 you'll be an expert for sure!  cheeky  And, as Yodi says, watch the channels – they'll tell you when to do things. 

    Fiber/Albo – FNSR catching a bid too.  

    • Submitted on 2017/09/15 at 1:35 pm
    • FNSR – May as well buy back the 20 short 2019 $30 calls ($2.20)and lock in that $7,000 gain and then we'll see if it's bouncing or not.  If it is, we'll sell more expensive calls and, if not, we could sell the $30s to some other sucker and use the $2 to roll to the $23s ($4.50) but I'd rather wait for 2020s to come out. 

    MRK/Lunar – They are on track to make about $4 per share so $66 is a p/e of 16.5 going forward.  That's reasonable but I think the whole market is likely to correct before they make a new high and no reason MRK will fight the market.  Back around $60 they might make a good short put sale though. 

    $49.25 on /CLV7, but that's going to cause a bounce. $49.50 is the stop line now.   It's $49.75 on /CLZ7 and this will be my last day on V7 as it's too annoying not to be trading the month everyone is looking at.  

  22. No bounce!  (0.05) – that's looking good for the oil bear trade! 

    $49.22 but, of course, $49 will be bouncy and that's got to come back to $49.20 (weak) so we'll see how well $49.20 holds up on the way down.  If it's at all bouncy, then best to take profits at $49 and wait for the bounce to be over (or a break below $49 makes that the new stop line on a new entry).  

  23. OA – heckuva 5 year chart. Nice finish. 

  24. So /CLV7 hit $49.50 and I didn't want to dip below $10K, so I took them off but I went right back in with 10 short /CLX7s at $50 as those I don't have to worry about expiring.  

    So, from now on, when we talk about oil – it's /CLX7, /CLV7 is dead – even though it trades two more days.  

  25. BOE's Carney reiterates case for rate rise; pound tumbles

    • Here's a good one: Brexit is crimping capacity in the U.K., says Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, meaning economic growth is more likely to lead to inflation, thus boosting the case for rate hikes.
    • A year ago, the surprise Brexit vote had the Bank quickly pushing into place emergency stimulus measures.
    • Thoroughly confused at this point, forex traders are selling cable, with the pound now lower by 0.5% vs. the dollar at $1.3513 (though this is coming after more than a 5% gain over the past three weeks).
    • The FTSE 100 is up 0.35%.
    • The eurozone inflation rate is likely to slide below 1% early next year due to volatile developments in oil and unprocessed food prices.
    • It's an awkward development for the ECB as it prepares to wind down its giant monetary stimulus.
    • Meanwhile, inflation across the bloc rose 1.5% in August, heading closer to the central bank's target of just below 2%.
    • Tweaking her models following management comments at investor conferences over the past couple of weeks, Morgan Stanley's Betsy Graseck sees the major money center banks as reporting a 24% year-over-year decline in FICC revenue in Q3. Lower volume and volatility are the culprits.
    • Looking at her own bank, Graseck now expects Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) to report an 18% drop vs. her previous forecast of 13%.
    • Previously: Citi sees trading revenue down 15% in Q3 (Sept. 11)
    • Previously: JPMorgan sees 20% Q3 trading revenue decline (Sept. 12)

    DOJ opens criminal probe into Equifax stock sales – Bloomberg

    • At issue are sales of company stock by three executives which took place after discovery of the massive cyberattack, but prior to the company publicly disclosing.
    • The company has said the trio – the CFO and two unit heads – were unaware of the data breach.
    • EFX down 0.25% today.

    EU to lower minimum prices on imported Chinese solar panels

    • China’s Ministry of Commerce praises the European Union's weekend decision to lower the minimum price imposed on imported Chinese solar panels and hopes duties will end as soon as possible.
    • The EU announced on Sept. 16 that it would progressively reduce the minimum prices that Chinese solar panel makers are allowed to sell their products for in Europe, allowing price cuts every three months beginning Oct. 1 and wrapping up on July 1 next year; Chinese companies that sell below the minimum prices are subject to import duties of up to 64.9%.
    • Relevant tickers: CSIQ +0.8%JASO +3.6%JKS +1.8%TSL flat, YGE -0.4%SOL -0.4%.
    • Precious metals are on track for their fifth day of losses in the past six sessions, hurt by a stronger dollar; Comex gold currently -1% at $1,312.20/oz., its lowest since August, silver -2.2%at $17.31/oz.
    • Markets have shaken off geopolitical turbulence in recent sessions, sending stocks to new records and hurting gold and other haven assets; and ”the stronger dollar and stronger Treasury yields will continue to put pressure” on precious metals, says Walter Pehowich, Senior VP at Dillon Gage Metals.
    • Gold bugs also will be watching this week’s FOMC meeting, in which the Fed is not seen raising interest rates but likely offering clues about how aggressive it could be in moving forward with balance sheet tapering.
    • Among major precious metals miners: ABX -1.6%GG -2.1%NEM -0.2%KGC -5.6%EGO+0.4%AEM -2.8%RGLD flat, IAG -3.3%HMY -7%AU -5.2%GFI -2.7%SBGL -4.1%AG-2.5%WPM -3.1%PAAS -1.4%HL -0.4%.
    • Albemarle (ALB +2.9%) has asked Chile's government to allow it to raise its lithium production quota to 125K metric tons/year from the current 80K tons/year limit.
    • ALB says new technology would allow it to obtain more lithium without needing to extract more brine out of the Atacama salt flat, which is part of the “lithium triangle” in Argentina, Bolivia and Chile that contains much of the world’s reserves for the mineral used in batteries.
    • Lithium producers, including ALB, SQM (SQM +2.1%) and FMC Corp. (FMC +2.2%), as well as the Global X Lithium ETF (LIT +2%), continue their recent rally, all posting new 52-week highs today.

    • Buckingham Research lowers United Continental (NYSE:UAL) to a Neutral rating from Buy on some new concerns over Pacific bookings.
    • The firm sees UAL's unit revenue falling 6% to 7% in Q4 amid the post-hurricanes impact and Pacific weakness.
    • The price target on UAL goes to $65 from $97.
    • Previously: Buckingham sees hurricane impact hitting airlines into Q4 (Sept. 7)
    • UAL -0.50% premarket to $59.50.
    • Self-driving, self-flying, now self-sailing… Rolls-Royce (OTCPK:RYCEY) is building an autonomous boat that can operate by itself for 100 days straight.
    • The 60-meter ship is designed to assist with patrol and surveillance, as well as mine detection, via an intelligent awareness system that uses AI.
    • The European Commission warns Ryanair (NASDAQ:RYAAY) that it be may be fined for canceling a large number of flights in the next six weeks due to pilot labor issues.
    • The airline canceled the flights due to a wave of employees taking holidays at the same time.
    • "Airlines operating in the EU need to respect the European rules… Passengers whose flights are cancelled have a comprehensive set of rights," says an EC spokesman.
    • Shares of Ryanair are down 1.25% in London. Ryanair ADRs are down 0.60% on the day.
    • A consortium between Chicago Bridge (NYSE:CBI) and Saipem (OTCPK:SAPMY) has been awarded a contract by Duqm Refinery and Petrochemicals Industries Company for EPC Package 3 for the Duqm Refinery Project.
    • DRPIC is a joint venture between Oman Oil Company and Kuwait Petroleum International.

    Italian coffee chains prep for Starbucks invasion

    • Italian coffee chain Lavazza isn't going to make it easy for Starbucks (SBUX +0.5%) to waltz into Milan and take market share.
    • The company opens its first flagship stores in the city tomorrow close to the planned location of a Starbucks Reserve Roastery.
    • Starbucks plan to open as many as 200 stores in Italy over the next six years if the Milan test goes well next year.

    Toy stocks stumble on Toys "R" Us concerns

    • Toy stocks are lower as more warnings on a Toys "R" Us bankrupcty circulate.
    • Stifel Nicolaus is front and center with a note to clients in which it discusses the negative impact on the sector of a bankrupcty filing ahead of the critical holiday season.
    • Mattel (MAT -1.5%), Hasbro (HAS -1.3%) and JAKKS Pacific (JAKK -1.6%) are all lower in early trading.
    • Previously: High anxiety for Toys "R" Us suppliers (Sept. 15)
    • Previously: Toys 'R' Us preps bankruptcy filing (Sept. 17)

    Piper Jaffray warns on Finish Line

    • Finish Line (FINL -4.4%) trades lower after Piper Jaffray drops its rating to Underweight after having the retailer set at Neutral.
    • Analyst Erinn Murpy notes that Finish Line has a high exposure to regions impacted by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.
    • Murphy thinks Finish Line's Q3 results will be under pressure due to the disruption. Her price target on FINL is lowered to $8 (20% downside).
    • L Brands (NYSE:LB) authorizes a new $250M million share buyback program.
    • The authorization includes $10.3M remaining under its previous $250M share repurchase program.
    • Source: Press Release
    • Shares of L Brands are down 21% over the last 90 days.
    • Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (NYSE:TEVA) inks two agreements to sell the remaining assets in its specialty global women's health business for $1.38B. Proceeds, including the recently announced sale of PARAGARD, will be used to pay down debt.
    • The first deal involves the sale of a portfolio of products, including Ovaleap, Zoely, Seasonique and Colpotrophine, to CVC Capital Partners Fund VI for $703M in cash. The group accounted for $258M in sales in 2016.
    • The second deal is with Foundation Consumer Healthcare to sell Plan B One-Step and Teva's emergency contraceptive brands for $675M in cash. The products generated $140M in sales in 2016.
    • The transactions should close by year-end.
    • RBC's Randall Stanicky has cut the price target on the stock to $15 (UNDERPERFORM) citing the company's "prolonged turnaround." He doesn't seed its leverage ratio falling to 3x EBITDA until 2020 (it's 5.5x now).
    • Previously: Teva sells Paragard asset to CooperSurgical for $1.1B (Sept. 11)

    Juniper Research: IBM seen as blockchain leader over Microsoft

    • IBM (NYSE:IBM) outranks Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) as blockchain industry leader, according to a new study from Juniper Research.
    • According to a survey, 40% of blockchain execs and leaders ranked IBM as the industry leader while 20% said Microsoft takes the top spot. 
    • Juniper Research said in July that 57% of the world’s large corporations were considering blockchain deployments. 
    • Research and Markets expects the global blockchain market to grow from $210.2M last year to $2.3B in 2021.  
    • Previously: IBM, food suppliers announce new blockchain tech partnership (Aug. 22)

    Evercore raises Micron price target

    • Evercore ISI raises its Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) price target by $10 to $50 and maintains an Outperform rating.
    • Analyst C.J. Muse sees the current DRAM cycle as sustainable due to improving demand paired with acceleration in storage and processing, constricted supplies due to rising complexity, and bit growth reduction due to shrinks. 
    • Muse forecasts Micron reporting FY17 EPS at $5, compared to $0.25 in FY16, and FCF at $2.6B, compared to a matching loss last year. CY18 estimates put EPS at $7.20 and FCF per share at $5. 
    • DRAM supply constriction through CY18 will push DRAM capex up 15% to 20%. 
    • Micron shares are up 2.35%.  
    • Bank of America Merrill Lynch raises its Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) price target from $185 to $210 and reiterates a Buy rating.
    • Analyst Vivek Arya calls Nvidia a “top pick” and says the firm’s positive view on the company “is based on its underappreciated transformation from a traditional PC graphics vendor, into a supplier into high end gaming, enterprise graphics, cloud, accelerated computing and automotive markets.” 
    • The analyst sees AI as a major potential tailwind for Nvidia.
    • Arya forecasts data center capital spending to rise 21% next year, up from 16.5% this year. 
    • BofAML now has the second highest price target on Nvidia behind only Evercore ISI with a $250 target.
    • Nvidia shares are up 2.77% premarket.    

    Sprint improves iPhone 8 pre-order offer

    • Sprint (NYSE:Simproves its iPhone 8 pre-order offer to better compete with other carriers.
    • Sprint now offers new customers a free 18-month lease when trading in an iPhone 7 or 7 Plus or a Samsung Galaxy S8, S8 Plus, or Note 8. 
    • Sprint will automatically upgrade qualified existing preorders to reflect this deal. 
    • Customers trading in an older phone, or existing customers, get Sprint’s original offer of 50% off the lease. 
    • Sprint shares are down 1.17%.  
    • Previously: Oppenheimer expects wireless promotions to heat up (Sept. 15)

    Apple's iPhone X comes with slimmer margins?

    • Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone X could have smaller profit margins than existing lines because of component costs.
    • The Wall Street Journal cites Susquehanna International Group research that puts iPhone X component costs at $581 compared to $248 for the iPhone 7. 
    • The iPhone X costs around 50% more than the iPhone 7 starting price and the 256GB model costs 19% more than the iPhone 7 Plus with the same memory.   
    • Previously: Apple updates developer app guide; Watch only works in home country (Sept. 15)

  26. CRS Coming back to your play of IBM, you might like to look as well at my armchair play.

    IBM pays a div. of 1.50 per quarter or 4.14 % per year. Stock, which pays a higher dividend normally gives not a great premium in call options.

    I know the price of IBM stock at 144.95 is not the lowest. But my Armchair play should give you a relaxed and steady return for the time you enter the play.

    Even with the purchase of 100 shares you can receive 1.49 % return per month, nothing to sneeze at.

    Buy 100 stock @ 144.95 and sell the Apr. 18 1x option 150/140 c/p strangle for 11.80.

    Small step but relaxed return.

  27. Hurricane Maria just jumped to 120mph, might get to Cat 4-5 at this point.  That's what's boosting oil at the moment. 

    Photo published for Hurricane Maria Expected to Become 'Major' Storm, Nears Caribbean Still Cleaning up From Irma

  28. I did not do the TZA or SQQQ hedges but want to do them now. What would you suggest here as a new hedge or do you still like them but at the current price?


  29. FU TEVA!!!!

    FU FTR!!!!

  30. Hedges/TX – I like the hedges as we adjusted them last week, of course.  Hard to imagine what use they will be in this market though…

    CAPE ratio adjusted for profit margins is now more extreme than both 2000 and 1929: by

    Study Shows Student Debt Delays Home Buying by Seven Years

    I'm so old I remember when price discovery involved sellers.


    Manufacturing still accounts for 23% of the German economy, compared to 12% in the US and 10% in the UK

    A handful of ultra-rich dynastic families are bleeding the country dry — and destroying American democracy

    Mom and pop stock investors have never been this bullish

    Well, here's a really simply chart that tells you why retail is dying:

    The rents, of course, are ridiculous.  Somehow, rents began taking bigger and bigger chunks of the profits until now the mall operator makes more than the store owner – which is not right as the store owner is the one signing the lease and taking the bigger business risk.  The payroll number is very unrealistic – does it take 2+ hours to sell a pair of jeans?  Also, they don't count the part of the on-line process the store may have contributed to – half the stores I go to encourage you to shop on-line instead (as corporate is trying to encourage on-line).  


    Why Frontier Reported Broadband Subscriber Losses in 2Q17

    Frontier Communications Providing Statewide Support for Commercial Customers as Communities Recover

    Evaluating Trends in Frontier Communications’ Customer Retention Rate

    They got hit by the storms in 2 of the 3 states they just bought from VZ for $10Bn – not good! 

  31. Jabo,

    With all the fu'is you publish, did you see the IBM trade suggestions.

    Here another one especially for you!

    STX not so popular with all, but buy the stock and sell the Mar 33/34 p/c strangle for 6.13 bringing a combined return of 3.77 % and I say FU

  32. phil/GDP.  maybe the fed will come out with a new forecast of 2.3% on wed and the "increase" in forecast will goose the market!

  33. Muck – "So what's the alternative to living in constant fear? It ain't easy cuz our rulers like it that way…"

    Come to grips with it. Fear is relative, it depends on who can look down and who must look up, and other vagaries of circumstance, like the time, the mood, the darkness. The major ingredient for any recipe for fear is the unknown. Feeling fear is part of being alive, it's a natural reaction which moves us closer to the truth.  

    It's been said before, with great validity, that more opportunities are lost not in the fear of death, but of life itself, and the worst thing there is to fear, is fear itself. Once one knows the nature of fear, only then can one be fearless and Out.

  34. Thanks for the input Yodi! much appreciated. So it sounds like most of the time you're only selling half of the short calls at the top of your bull spreads when you initiate a position? This lets you sell your cherry calls along the way every couple of months, and later on if the stock has risen you can always close off your bull spread and get a better price on those short calls? 

    do i have that about right? 

    when your selling your cherry calls, lets say you have 10 long calls and 5 short calls, are you just selling 5 cherry calls at a time? or do you ever play it more aggressively and sell more than your covered for? (i.e. 10)? 

  35. TSLA breaking through ATH.  Should be 400 soon.  Only 69 RSI, has plenty of room to move higher before a pullback.

  36. "Tilts/Naybob – Those tilts are 100,000 year cycles, they would never give you noticable measurements like we're seeing now.  Yes, the earth was once lava and then then it had an ice age and then it warmed up but that is NOT what this is."

    A part of the conclusion, in the discussion I pointed Ilene to. Proven science, axiomatic or as sure as sun/moon rising and setting every day, as long as the wheel in the sky keeps on turning…

    Changes in planetary tilt, spin and orbit, all cause measurable, predictable and cyclical (over the long term) temperature changes.The 800,000 years worth of ice core data demonstrates conclusive and noticeable measurements for those long term cycles.

    That data demonstrates an increase in temperature causes CO2 levels to increase. In other words,  the resulting increases in CO2 are a cyclical and predictable product of temperature warming, and thus CO2 increases lag temperature. 

    I can hear the mental midget deniers, viz. Limbaugh and his acolytes making a Rush to judgment, AH-HA, see CO2 levels do not cause temperature increases. Bad assumption and dead wrong in more ways than one.

    Regarding the modern day measurements we are observing… the CO2 levels have elevated in an exponential and sudden fashion, or abnormal as compared to 800,000 years worth of previous measurement.  What changed or is different this time out? Volcanic, lunar or solar factors? 

    No, the human factor, or the introduction and addition of anthropogenic CO2 into the current warming cycle, is the cause for the current elevated anomalous data, temperatures and resulting conditions.  Other than BS science, there isn't any way to explain it away.

    Plain and simple for the doubting Thomas, of which there are way too many, there are rules of nature. Talking monkeys should not micturate in their garden, put out a fire with gasoline or defecate where they eat. 

    Inobservance of the rules leads to self inflicted suffering and over the long term, a well deserved culling and eventual extinction of said species. Time for my IV and Out.

  37. There is a clear cut disconnect between the VIX and the UVXY & SVXY ETFs.  Small move in VIX and relatively big moves in the ETFs.

    Bought some UVXY, as a short term hedge, but mostly looking for a scalp trade.  Looking for 1 1/2 – 2 points upside.  Risking 1 point.

  38. Phil, Any play on RB? Based on the projection of Maria, it does not look like it is going to the gulf. Do you see any other factors for RB being up now that we passed the holidays and Irma

  39. GDP/Lunar – Dow 25,000 here we come!  

    TSLA/Rustle – Can't wait to short them!   Unfortunately, they pushed back the truck announcement until late Oct and that can keep them going all month as people will fantasize about truck sales.  Meanwhile, Volvo sells $300Bn a year worth of cars and trucks and makes $13Bn doing it and they are trading for $36Bn.  TSLA has $7Bn in sales and lost $1Bn last Q (about $2Bn this year) and is trading for $65Bn – MADNESS!!!

    Meanwhile that Volvo is quite a company – check out the annual report!  

    Culling/Naybob – Well, at least from the Earth's perspective, the problem is self-correcting.  

    Well we're back to $50 on /CLV7, which is $50.50 on /CLX7 so that's our new shorting line.  Lost $1K on my first entry and now back in with 10 short again – hopefully with better results.  If not, I'll lose another $1K ($50.60) and wait for $51 or a cross back below $50.50 to try again.  If the payoff is $10K – I can be wrong a few times before I get it!  

    VIX/Albo – That thing is broken (or the market is).  

    Peak complacency?

    /RB/Bulls – Way too uncertain with the hurricane.  I'm only playing /CL for the rollover and then I'll say the same thing about that.  

  40. $TSLA – Nice turn after hitting 52 week high. 

  41. CRS No most BCS I set up in full, please read the part of "the man planting trees". In this respect in principal it does not greatly matter. especially if the stock goes up, If I set up any BCS I sell at the most always only half the amount of cherry calls in relation to the leap call. Take always in to consideration if the stock is reporting that specific month you intend selling cherry calls. Better set out that month, as the sold caller might strongly run against you.

  42. Phil TSLA, they are so scared for the competition, they did not even exhibit on the Frankfurt motor show, one of the biggest in Europe. BMW is showing a vehicle, which does 600 KM on one charge. There are many companies on show in Frankfurt all with electric car.

  43. Phil if hurricanes track up east coast then production doesn't take a hit , demand does when power is out and people are hunkered down. None of these storms is currently tracking into the gulf are they?

  44. Ahh i see, so your generally entering a full BCS and then selling half of the cherry callers as "extra"? When your the stock rises and your cherry callers end up in the money are you generally rolling them along or just taking the loss and trying again next month? Or perhaps its on a case by case basis? 

  45. Forbes says Dallas Cowboys are worth $5Bn!  

    • The central banks have created a "liquidity supernova" – $2T worth just this year – much to benefit of financial markets, says BAML's Michael Hartnett.
    • That's about to dim, though, he says, beginning with this week's expected announcement of balance sheet shrinkage by the Fed. Should the ECB soon follow by prepping markets for its taper, the conditions could be in place for a correction.

    Debt limit deal gums up Treasury's plan for handling the Fed taper

    These charts show North Korea's major exports and imports

    • The loonie (NYSEARCA:FXC) has lost about 75 pips vs. the dollar in the last few minutes after Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Timothy Lane says the bank will pay close attention to economy's response to both higher rates and the stronger Canadian dollar.
    • The loonie is  now lower by 1% vs. the greenback to $0.8122.

    Banks lead gains as rate surge continues

    • It was less than two weeks ago that the 10-year Treasury yield was threatening to dip below 2%. Up another three basis points today, it currently sits at 2.23%.
    • Appreciating the steeper yield curve are the country's lenders. The KBE and KRE are each up well over 1%, while the XLF is ahead 1%. This vs. the S&P 500's 0.2% advance today.
    • On tap for this week is the FOMC's two-day policy meeting, at which no rate hike is expected (good for the yield curve), but the trimming of the central bank's balance sheet is to be announced (effect on bonds still being debated).
    • Alongside the policy announcement will be an update to the bank's economic outlook and updated "dots" showing the various outlooks for the Fed Funds rate.

    A down payment with a catch: You must be an Airbnb host (continuously for three years) – It will provide prospective home buyers with up to $50,000 for a down payment, as long as they are willing to continuously list an extra bedroom on Airbnb for one to three years and share most of the income with Loftium over that time.

    "When They Promise To Bring Back Manufacturing Jobs, They're Promising Stagnation"

    Photo published for The EU’s free marketeers struggle to hold the line

    Let's talk quests: Not for Zelda, but for the US to produce 10 mil b/d of . Capitol Crude on how it could happen

    U.S. dry production is forecast to average 73.7 billion cubic feet per day in 2017, up from 2016.

    • Big upstream operators in south Texas's Eagle Ford shale say they are at or near pre-storm levels three weeks after Hurricane Harvey slammed into the area.
    • Devon Energy (DVN -0.3%) said Friday its production is at pre-storm levels in the play, which was 63K boe/day in Q2, and that Harvey would cut Eagle Ford's Q3 net liquids production by 15K boe/day, or ~0.5% of its total expected volumes for FY 2017.
    • SM Energy (SM +1.9%) also said its Eagle Ford production returned to pre-Harvey levels, which totaled 88K boe/day in Q2, affecting output by 2,174 boe/day, effectively reducing total previous Q3 guidance to 115.2K-119.5K boe/day.
    • BHP Billiton (BHP +0.2%)said its  Eagle Ford fields returned to near pre-storm levels of 99K boe/day in Q2.
    • EOG Resources (EOG -0.5%) reiterated its Eagle Ford impact from Harvey of 15K bbl/day of oil for Q3, although full-year production guidance is unchanged.
    • The Connecticut state senate voted on Friday to give new life to Dominion Energy's (D -1.4%) Millstone nuclear station, approving legislation that would empower state officials to allow the facility to compete with other carbon-free sources of electricity, if deemed in the public interest.
    • Dominion has been arguing for two years that Millstone needs new rules for selling electricity to remain economically viable.
    • The bill still needs to be taken up by the Connecticut House, which failed to pass a similar bill in June.

    GE working on a robot that it says can save $200 billion of power

    • Morgan Stanley thinks a partnership between Ford (F +0.3%) and Waymo (GOOGGOOGL) could shake up the auto sector.
    • "Ford’s strategy towards exploring Auto 2.3 was through taking stakes in a wide range of start-ups to expose the company to new technologies and business models — a strategy not unusual compared to other global OEM’s," writes analyst Adam Jones.
    • "Alphabet’s efforts to develop sustainable transport networks through its autonomous car division (now called Waymo) is perhaps the most enterprising of the major players," he observes.
    • Ford and Waymo were close to striking a deal last year on partnership, according to reports.
    • Perhaps adding to the deal speculation is the fact that Waymo CEO John Krafcik spent 14 years Ford in various roles.
    • A key date for Ford investors to watch is October 3 when a strategic update to investors is due out.
    • Intel (NASDAQ:INTCannounces that its sensor processing and connectivity tech appear in Google  (GOOGGOOGL) Waymo’s self-driving Chrysler Pacifica hybrid minivans.
    • The company says Waymo cars with Intel technology have logged 3M miles of real-world driving, more than any other autonomous fleet operating on U.S. roads. 
    • In other Intel news, the company appoints EA CEO Andrew Wilson to the board effective immediately. 
    • Intel shares are up 0.70%.       
    • Previously: Intel declares $0.2725 dividend (Sept. 14)

    • Zipcar announces the launch of its car sharing service in Reykjavik, Iceland.
    • The Avis (NASDAQ:CAR)-owned company says the development marks the first major city launch for the brand in the Nordic countries.
    • Zipcar members will have access to a range of vehicles including Hyundai’s i10 and Nissan’s Leaf EV. for shopping or seeing family and friends without having to worry about the costs of fuel, insurance or parking charges.
    • Zipcar's international expansion now includes 500 cities and towns across Europe, North America and Asia-Pacific.
    • Source: Press Release

    Highlights from Buffalo Wild Wings' investor presentation

    • Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD +0.6%) says it plans to open the first outlet of its small store format this quarter. A larger roll-out of the 2K-2.5K square foot concept is planned for 2018.
    • Also being introduced in Q3, the restaurant company is starting 3rd party delivery at some company-owned locations.
    • Buffalo Wild Wings updates on the impact from the hurricanes in the U.S. Management says ~$3M in sales were lost and a negative $0.10 impact will be felt on EPS. On a positive note, the restaurant chain saw a better-than-anticipated boost from its Tuesday promotion.
    • Buffalo Wild Wings presentations slides (.pdf)

    Toys R Us made 2 fatal mistakes that led to a death spiral

    • Thinly traded micro cap Nanostring Technologies (NSTG +1.5%) perks up on average volume on the news that it demonstrated the capability of its Hyb & Seq technology to perform liquid biopsies. The proof-of-principle work was presented at the Advances in Genome Biology and Technology Precision Health meeting in Scottsdale, AZ.
    • Hyb & Seq is the company's single-molecule sequencing technology that it says is simpler, faster and more flexible than other offerings.
    • The oncology community is keenly interested in the concept of measuring cell-free DNA in the blood as a means to monitor (possibly to detect) cancer because it is more convenient, less costly and more patient-friendly than tissue biopsies.

    Bill and Melinda Gates give the world a health report card. You could try harder, it says.

    • JMP analyst Erik Suppiger defends Ubiquiti Networks (NASDAQ:UBNT) saying he “does not see fraud” as alleged by Citron Research this morning.
    • Suppiger’s comments came during a call with Bloomberg and the analyst continues that he sees the company as a “well-established business with a pretty dominant brand name” though he would like to “take a closer look” at the distribution model changes. 
    • Source: Bloomberg First Word 
    • Ubiquiti shares are down 9.1%.    
    • Previously: Ubiquiti Networks down on fraud claims from Citron Research (Sept. 18)

    Amazon is planning a mega-warehouse in Mexico:

    U.S. stocks are front-running third-quarter earnings beats

    Rich American seniors are getting healthier, not poor ones

    Sean Spicer and the cognitive dissonance of the 2017 Emmys

    Donald Trump took $107 million promised to charities … and kept it

    "Cryptonomics. It's like economics, but fuck you." – Craig Sellars

  46. So while Nat is on his IV, I looked it up… for anyone else who didn't know.


    Define micturate: urinate. … Origin and Etymology of micturate. Latin micturire to desire to urinate, from meiere to urinate; akin to Old English m?gan to urinate, …

    Damn dude, I thought I had a big vocabulary…  :)

  47. CRS Cherry calls are a cherry on top of your Leap play. Some you lose some you win. It has been somewhat harder in today’s market to hit the right OTM call, as stocks have been going up to fast. Obviously overall you should win on the combined play. The main problem is, with a fast rising stock, your monthly callers go up more than your leap play. With cherry calls I am always happy if I do get more than 1% return per month. Do not be too greedy better a bit more OTM and less return than to close to the ATM position.

  48. TSLA/Yodi – It's about 80% hype but Musk is a master of hype.  Americans don't really grasp the size of the Global auto market (VW $260Bn, Volvo $300Bn, BMW $97Bn, Daimler $160Bm, TM $250Bn, etc.).  TSLA is not even a flea on their butts yet and, when they are – they will crush them like all the bugs they have crushed before.  I love this list of failed US Auto companies – yet people will pay 100x future fantasy earnings for Tesla…  

    Musk's whole game is based on insinuating that all the auto makers are doing it wrong and only he knows how to manufacture cars for great profits.  People don't consider that he's an idiot/liar/con artist and the fact of the matter is what he says he can do simply isn't possible.  The first cars ever made were electric but they weren't as practical as gasoline so they switched to gas because it was cheap.  Musk simply came along at a time when technology has allowed electric to compete with gas but he didn't invent this stuff –  the auto industry was heading that way (hybrids) anyway – just slower.  

    Between 1832 and 1839, British inventor Robert Anderson also invented a crude electrical carriage. A patent for the use of rails as conductors of electriccurrent was granted in England in 1840, and similar patents were issued to Lilley and Colten in the United States in 1847.
    Image result
    Combating early range anxiety:
    Image result for first electric car
    This one look like it's self driving too!  

    Storms/Craigs – Too early to tell on the next two but Maria looks like it will turn up the Atlantic and miss most of the US (but still will ground east coast flights).

    Micturate/Mkucs – Oh you'd be surprised all the terms you pick up when you are an old fart who spends half his time with doctors!  cheeky

    Image result for old man doctors cartoon

  49. Phil

    Good joke

  50. Indexes popping into the close – happy Monday!  

    /NKD 20,000!  

  51. yodi/phil/crs,

    good discussion on the cherry calls. Sometimes even if you think you know it really helps when things are discussed at length with examples.

    thank you.


  52. You're welcome Pat, it's a topic worth discussing as people often forget our "Secret to Consistent 20-40% Annual Returns".

    I think I did a good job with my /NKD prediction:

    August 30th, 2017 at 5:43 am | (Unlocked) | Permalink 

    /NKD 20,250 to 19,250 gives us 200-point bounces to 19,450 and 19,650 so not too impressive on the Nikkei but we know that's because of the weak Dollar, which GS said to bet on.

    I agree and I wish I caught 92 but I'll add on long /DX here at 92.40 and, if I were going to make a long bet on the indexes, /NKD would be a good choice over the 19,500 line.

  53. Phil/UBNT,

    Looks like getting investigated for accounting fraud. Are you aware of UBNT?


  54. UBNT/Pat – Sure, they were in the LTP on 2/11/15, when we sold the 2017 $23 puts for $4.70.  Needless to say, we won that bet but lost interest as they were about $65 at expiry and I didn't want to chase as I thought it was a bit silly.  Back at $50, I still think it's silly and now people are saying even fraudulent, which is strange as it's a good product – maybe too good – as in it can't be profitably produced for that price so they juggled the books?  

  55. Muck – "Damn dude, I thought I had a big vocabulary…  :) "

    Thank you. I guess I could have written, Talking monkeys should not spend a penny in their garden.

    Phil – Micturate/Mkucs – Oh you'd be surprised all the terms you pick up when you are an old fart who spends half his time with doctors!   

    Noice, and I thought you were a cheeky monkey.  

    Phil - Culling/Naybob – Well, at least from the Earth's perspective, the problem is self-correcting.

    Or perhaps, from the sun's perspective, you bring The Boy Who Predicted Earthquakes, to mind. I believe it's the first 26 mins and Out.

  56. Just kidding Naybob – I can only pray I have half of your marbles as I age!  

  57. Hey, does anyone know a Florida based supermarket that's public.  Ironically, Publix is not (employee-owned, actually).  It occurs to me that millions of people have to trash their entire refrigerator and restock it due to week-long power outages.  That's MASSIVE sales for the supermarkets and plenty of time for it to score in Q3.

  58. Puerto Rico apparently in the crosshairs of Maria at Cat4.

  59. Florida supermarkets – Winn Dixie, Walmart, and Aldi. Not sure about any others, like Trader Joe's or Whole Foods now Amazon. 

  60. Phil – Swap – UBNT – "Either Robert Pera is the best CEO in networking equipment, or Ubiquiti is committing FRAUD,” Left wrote.  Left also called into question what Ubiquiti describes as its “evangelical community” of users, who allow the company to reduce advertising and customer service costs. According to Left, these claims are exactly the type of “secret sauce” claims that are typical of corporate frauds. “While we do believe that at six or seven years ago Ubiquiti may have had an engaged WISP community, the story is now as implausible as the rest of the bull— UBNT tells Wall Street,

    Just like in Hong Kong, caught issuing fraudulent and misleading statements, I hope Left and Citron get banned from trading in the US for five years, are ordered to repay any trading profits and pay legal fees. 

    In the past I've mentioned UBNT on PSW here and here. I've deployed and utilized UBNT products, their sales are what they are, because of the product and support, best of class, nothing more, nothing less.

    "So where does UBNT sit in Cramer's eyes? He acknowledges not having done enough research to discredit or support Ubiquiti… In response to Left's claims, UBNT CEO Robert Pera had this to say, "I just put my head down and let the products and numbers speak for themselves. My apologies to those affected by these clowns."

    And that sums it up as propagandist Left makes money shorting companies, so why would anyone distrust his line of BS or motive for trashing the stock? DUH! As for Cramer,  a sycophantic ass clown, knowing not his musculus sphincter ani internus from a golf hole cup liner, and whom I would not allow to wash my car and Out.

  61. Phil


    TGT Target

  62. Phil - "Just kidding Naybob – I can only pray I have half of your marbles as I age!"

    I know your kidding, for an indirect lob, it was a good one.  Getting old… other day, post shower, I opened the bathroom door, and was bent over toweling off.  The MRS walked by, backed up, stopped and said, honey, nobody wants to see that anymore, and shut the door.  My rejoinder, LU2 Beeotch !!!

    Florida – as power is restored, the supply chain will fill.  A few Trader Joes, Aldi, Save-a-Lot, Tom Thumb, Winn-Dixie, Target, Grocery Outlet, Publix.  Big box BJ's Wholesale; Costco; but mostly WalMart (Sam's Club, Supercenter and a buttload of their Neighborhood Markets).  WalMart should get the lionshare. 

  63. The NFL’s Highest-Paid Players 2017

  64. In Wake Of Hurricanes, Home Builder Caution Grows

  65. mkucs/fear  – People are getting more worried than usual here in Korea. A friend told me his father is stockpiling food and diesel fuel, although said father lives in Busan, waay out of range of NK artillery, and probably not a missile target (no US bases). We have an external curriculum committee review right now, and three of the panel members are from abroad – one from Gottingen, one from CalTech, and one from Harvey Mudd College in Claremont. The Harvey Mudd person canceled for fear of NK (or maybe Trump), and the CalTech rep said his wife, for the first time, expressed serious concern about the trip, although he's made several trips here in the past. The woman from Germany didn't mention any concern, though.

    China has a suggestion on the table that goes something like NK freezes weapon development and the US stops holding war games with south Korea. Interesting, given that Russia and China are holding joint exercises.

    People here remain a lot more concerned about Trump than Kim, and some more liberal people are irritated with President Moon for excessive cooperation with Trump, especially the THAAD anti-missile missile installation (he had initially said he would get rid of them; instead a couple more have been added). He is extending olive branches to the north, but publicly at least, not getting any response.

    Interesting times……

  66. Pharm / Nucana (NVNA) – my broker has offered me some IPO shares in this and was wondering if you would give me your thoughts on it – Thanks

    We are a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on significantly improving treatment outcomes for cancer patients by applying our ProTideTM technology to transform some of the most widely prescribed chemotherapy agents, nucleoside analogs, into more effective and safer medicines. While these conventional agents remain part of the standard of care for the treatment of many solid tumors, their efficacy is limited by cancer cell resistance mechanisms and they are often poorly tolerated. Utilizing our proprietary technology, we are developing new medicines, ProTides, designed to overcome key cancer resistance mechanisms and generate much higher concentrations of anti-cancer metabolites in cancer cells. Our most advanced ProTide candidates, Acelarin® and NUC-3373, are new chemical entities derived from the nucleoside analogs gemcitabine and 5- fluorouracil, respectively, two widely used chemotherapy agents.  

  67. Pharm / its NCNA 

  68. Index commentary from Bill Fleckenstein…. 

    Squeeze Play


    Stock bulls were back in party mode again, as the market was higher through midday, led by the Nasdaq, which gained just shy of 0.5% despite the FAANG group being kind of dead in the water. The Nasdaq gave up most of its gains in the afternoon, though beneath the surface I thought I saw a number of short squeezes, the combination of the two may mean the rally is close to ending.

  69. BDC — commenting on cryptoc exchanges… do you transfer them to your wallet or keep them there?  see comments below

    Q: Hello! To answer on of the subscribers, you can short (or long) bitcoins on most of the online bitcoin exchanges listed on, but know these exchanges are not insured, and are a target for hackers – if an exchange goes down e.g. in a hack, you don't get your money back.
    Also it's very bad practice to store funds in a bitcoin exchange if they are not in use.
    Bitcoin is crazy volatile, if you believe the story hold for the long term, don't watch the price AND make sure you research how to store safely the Private Keys – if you don't store safely the Private Keys YOURSELF the coins aren't really yours.
    Also know that trading the other crypto-coins (which are traded mostly against Bitcoin) is even more volatile and dangerous and most of them are pure trash, scamming the public with buzzwords and technonsense in hope of a quick buck.

  70. Good morning!  

    Volume yesterday was 41M on SPY – lowest since Mon, 8/28, but that didn't lead to a sell-off so there's not much to read into it, low-volume rallies are the market's new thing.  

    Oil is stubbornly holding $50.50 – that's annoying.  Looks like 90,000 still open at the NYMEX and that's not huge pressure for 2 days but still some pressure. 42,000 contracts were rolled and the front 4 months are still 1.22Bn barrels, which is still a huge amount – especially as they will very soon be just 3 months!

    Click for
    Current Session Prior Day Opt's
    Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
    Oct'17 49.91 50.31 49.78 50.12 04:52
    Sep 19


    0.21 10125 49.91 90714 Call Put
    Nov'17 50.38 50.70 50.18 50.53 04:52
    Sep 19


    0.18 87531 50.35 566282 Call Put
    Dec'17 50.57 50.98 50.48 50.82 04:52
    Sep 19


    0.16 14208 50.66 351153 Call Put
    Jan'18 50.92 51.19 50.70 51.01 04:52
    Sep 19


    0.11 3048 50.90 214539 Call Put
    Feb'18 51.05 51.32 50.86 51.16 04:52
    Sep 19


    0.09 1574 51.07 89560 Call Put
    Mar'18 51.22 51.40 50.96 51.29 04:52
    Sep 19


    0.11 2168 51.18 169213 Call Put

    Europe is flat and Asia was not enthusiastic outside of Japan, which we already knew about.

    Remember $18?  Ah, good times…

    TGT/QC – That's a good one as they get a double benefit from selling goods as well.  I guess WMT too but harder to impact WMT's sales than TGT's.  Anyway, WMT is high and TGT is low so TGT it is! 

    Supermarkets/1020 – Good list but none tradeable, unfortunately.  

    UBNT/Naybob – I haven't looked into the fraud issues.  If they are not cooking the books, they may be reasonable at $50.  Apparently Pera still owns 70% of the company – how pissed must he be that these guys just cost him $1Bn?  The good news is, if you are a believer, that the 2019 $50 puts are $11.90 for a net $38.10 entry, that's another 24% off from here.  You can pair it with the 2019 $40 ($16.50)/$55 ($9) bull call spread at $7.50 and you still have a $4.40 credit on the $15 spread with $19.40 (440%) upside.  I don't know enough facts to play it but that's how I'd play it if I thought this was unjust.

    WMT/Naybob – See above.  Hard to move the needle on $500Bn.  Florida has 191 Walmart stores, 137 TGT so assume they get roughly the same amount of gross business but TGT has "just" $69Bn total sales so 2M homes x $300 more than usual spent would be a 1% pop but in 1Q it's a 4% pop. Should be enough to get them back over $60 – especially as they have very low expectations this Q (0.86 vs $1.04 last year) and they beat last Q by 3.4% at $1.23 – so I think the estimates are way low.  

    See guys, that's all I do.  I get an idea for a premise and it leads me to look closer at a few stocks and then I do some math and presto – we have a new trade idea!  

    Fear/Snow – Well try not to get nuked.  Don't forget your umbrella and, of course, remember to duck and cover!  

    "People here remain a lot more concerned about Trump than Kim"

    ROFL!  So sad, and true…

    NCNA/Batman – Tricky as they are adding costs to an existing treatment, not replacing.  They'll have a long road to get through studies that prove they provide statistically significant results but the first one (21 patients) seems very encouraging.  Of course, nice lottery ticket if they hit.  They are selling about 20% of the stock for $100M ($15).  Some of their early promotionals (and they have already burned through tons of money) seem a little scammy and these guys are the same people that did sell Bioenvision to Genzyme for $345M in 2007, which was a mess of a deal:

    Here’s a quick summary of what we’ve covered so far (the related posts list at right pretty much has everything): Individual shareholder protest. Merger rejected. CEO and other execs cash out. Board members resign. At least five class action lawsuits. Bid to end Genzyme’s license to Bioenvision’s leukemia drug.

    And all this in only about two months. Then comes word today that one of the execs who cashed out (to the tune of $1.7 million), former Bioenvision executive vice president and general counsel David Luci, has filed suit in New York State court seeking $108 million. According to a small item in the Boston Herald, Luci alleges that Bioenvision breached his employment agreement and has failed to pay him for his role in facilitating the attempted sale of the company to Genzyme (we note that Cambridge-based Genzyme (NASDAQ: GENZ) was only able to amass about 22 percent of Bioenvision stock).

  71. This is interesting.  It's the Fed's projections that go with tomorrow's statement and check out the projected rate for next year – 3% MINIMUM.  That seems kind of nuts as we're only at 1.5% so they need 6 quarter-point hikes in 12 months to get there.  

    Would be even more crazy if they aren't going to raise rates tomorrow as they only have 8 meetings a year so, if not now, then Oct 28th (they can't be dumb enough to do Dec again) but that would still leave 5/8 next year, which is the kind of relentless tightening that crashed us last time.  

    Image result for fed mistakes

  72. Phil / NCNA – thanks for the feedback on this one.