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Thursday Thrust – Markets Going Higher Just Because

The markets just don't go down anymore.  

I said the markets were broken the other day and this BAC chart spells that out.  We haven't had a sustained move down since last year as the market keeps grinding higher but it's all based on what investors HOPE is going to happen – not what is actually happening.  The "Hard Data" has, in fact, been crashing all year and the bounce we are currently celebrating is mainly due to post-hurricane buying – something we knew was going to happen but is still getting the markets very excited and now analyst/cheerleaders are extrapolating this one-time boost in buying ad finitum to entice more money off the sidelines and into the markets.  

Even Warren Buffett is getting into the act, virtually guaranteeing the tax cuts will pass (which should boost bottom-line earnings – even though no actual improvements in sales or operations will have occured) and going so far as to state that he isn't even selling his winning positions because he will save so much money next year on lower tax rates.  Of course Buffett is talking his massive book, which holds hundreds of Billions of Dollars worth of stocks at record highs.  So are all the other fund managers they are trotting out on TV – telling you how great the market is at this price.  

We are VERY reluctantly long still, but not so much.  Since our last Portfolio Review in mid-September, our Long-Term Portfolio has gained $48,000 (2.9%) while our hedges in the Short-Term Portfolio have dropped $30,000 so a net gain of $18,000 on our paired portfolios while we're putting in fresh record highs. 

Just this morning, we discussed, for the first time, buying NAKED LONG TZA Nov $12 calls, which are $1.35 with (TZA) at $13.15 so they have just 0.20 in premium and, if the Russell (now 1,515) does drop 2.5% to 1,477, the ultra-short ETF would gain 7.5% to $14.13 and the calls would be worth $2.13 – up 57% on a 2.5% drop in the Nasdaq so 20:1 leverage on the downside.  

I know I put up a lot of doom and gloom warnings in the morning Reports but that's because I feel the need to serve as a balance to the irrational enthusiasm but we are, reluctantly, playing the long game and, like Buffett, we haven't yet cut our winners – but we are now hedging the hell out of them.  We'll see if earnings manage to justify any of this nonsense but we're ignoring the uptick in data on the assumption it's storm-related.  If it's a real rally that will keep going through winter – we won't miss much by sitting out this leg into earnings.

I hate to be the stick in the mud but look what's happening to Puerto Ricos bonds this month.  While people in the US may not feel like Puerto Rico is a state, the message internationally is the US can't take care of their own people in a crisis and don't even get me started on how crap Trump has been.  Yesterday alone, the bonds fell more than 10% the day after Trump visited – what happens if investors begin to question the value of our own TBills?  

Peurto Rico bonds are down 50% this year and they were down 20% before the storm so this is just what pushed them over the edge.  The island is $74Bn in debt and, with 3M residents, that's $24,666 each or $75,000 per family – good luck getting that back now that half their homes are wiped out.  The current estimate is $90Bn worth of damage was done to the island – that's another $30,000 per resident or $100,000 per household worth of damage.  Before the storm hit, the Peurto Rican Government had $1.6Bn left in their budget.   With widespread damage to telecommunications systems and the electricity grid, Treasuy Secretary Maldonado doesn’t expect to begin collecting sales tax for at least another month.

“I don’t have any collections, and we are spending a lot of money providing direct assistance for the emergency,” he said in an interview in San Juan. “Without the assistance from Congress, Puerto Rico’s government will not be able to operate next month.”

While attention has focused on the commonwealth’s staggering $74 billion debt, Puerto Rico faces a more immediate crisis in the wake of the storm. It’s running short of money for fuel, salaries of recovery workers and food aid. Meanwhile, only 8.6 percent of customers have electricity, mobile-phone service is sharply curtailed and many mountainous rural areas remain inaccessible.

Image result for unemployment depression signYou have conservatively over 100,000 homes that are destroyed here,” Governor Ricardo Rossello said an interview Wednesday.  “Essentially you’re looking at zero revenue for the next couple of months,” he said. “While you have zero revenue, you still have expenditures, plus emergency expenditures. That means the money is going to run out very quickly."

What is the message the United States is sending to the World when Congress and the President are, on the one hand, saying we have so much money that we can afford to collect $400Bn PER YEAR LESS taxes from the Top 1% and their Corporations while, on the other hand, we tell Puerto Rico their one-time $90Bn disaster is a "budget buster" and they are on their own?

$90Bn is over 100% of Puerto Rico's GDP – it's simply not possibly, in any universe, for them to be able to repair their island without assistance.  If they don't repair things – they will fall apart, default on their debts, etc.  That will then send cascading losses through the banks and funds that own the debt and will also add a high degree of risk to every US State's bonds, since investors will no longer have faith the Federal Government will ultimately bail them out.  

Image result for puerto rico hurricaneThe federally appointed Bankruptcy board, which has broad oversight over the island’s finances, requested for immediate aid Tuesday. In a letter the panel sent congressional leaders, the officials asked the federal government to make low-interest loans available to ease the impending liquidity crisis.

“Failure to provide the greatest amount of federal aid and the emergency liquidity program will be potentially ruinous," chairman Jose Carrion wrote. "We must do all that we can to help Puerto Rico avert a tragedy of historic proportions."

The panel also asked that the federal government waive cost-sharing limits, disaster spending caps and grants for long-term relief.

If Congress doesn’t act, Maldonado said, “it will be a disaster.”


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  1. Phil – I thought you had an excellent webinar yesterday with some valuable information, especially at the end when you discussed creating what could become a perpetual and growing income stream.

    Good stuff.

  2. Table is now correct!

  3. Good morning, 

    LB announced same store sales: Total comps  -2% in Sep vs  Total comps -4% in Aug,

    Victoria's Secret -5% in Sep vs  -7% in Aug.    Hurricanes had an impact of -1%. 

    The stock is just below $40 on this. 

  4. It would be funny if not for the fact that it reflects badly on who is in charge:

    I’ve been wondering since this morning what excuse the White House would invent to walk back Donald Trump’s suggestion that Puerto Rico’s debt needs to be wiped clean. It turns out they didn’t bother. Here’s the walkback from budget director Mick Mulvaney:

    “I wouldn’t take it word for word with that,” Mulvaney said on CNN.

    So that’s that. Not even a pretense that Trump was actually saying something plausible. Just a bald admission that Trump talks a lot of shit and no one should take him seriously.

  5. And what our leader is concerned with – his image:

    And as Tillerson has traveled the globe, Trump believes his top diplomat often seems more concerned with what the world thinks of the United States than with tending to the president’s personal image.


  6. You go Rex !  

    Keep it up.

  7. That's interesting – does that mean more disposable income or maybe more money to pay off student debt:

    Mortgage debt payments never been lower

  8. Albo – It seems that he won't be around very long. Does not look like the type that will kiss @ss much!

  9. STJ – Agreed.  Trump needs to back off.

  10. Thanks Phil. I know it's unrealistic to wait for a 5% correction. I'm trying to whittle down the basis and wanted to get your thoughts on where you thought /TF is headed. The options idea is fantastic but do you think Nov is enough time?

  11. Morning all! 

    The webinar replay is now up!

  12. Good Morning.

  13. Nat Nay,

    That's some musical that catalogue you have upstairs.

  14. Good morning!  

    Here comes Nate:

    Just a storm and not likely to become a hurricane but a bit disruptive to the shipping channel is good for our /CL longs.  

    That was easy money this morning!  

    Nas blasted higher but not so much /TF so there's hope the madness is abating there too.

    Thanks Albo.  I shouldn't complain about too few questions as too many drives me crazy too – since I can't get to what I want.  I guess yesterday I got to talk about exactly what I felt like but then it felt like I was getting a flat response.  Oh well – hard to have it all, I guess…

    Big Chart – It's interesting how volatile we've become when a 5% move now is double what it was a few years ago in points.  The Nas was up 25 this morning and I thought "wow" but then I realized that's just 0.4% now.  100 points on the Dow is not even half a percent – MADNESS!   And they say there's no inflation…

    Factory Orders for Aug were up a bit at 1.2%.  Durable Goods up 2% and 0.5 ex-transports.  All better than expected.  

    LB/Learner – Holding $40 would be a nice bullish sign as comps usually tank them.

    Mortgage debt/StJ – Well it's easy to cut mortgage debt when you default!  

    78 percent of loans that experienced credit events from 1999 to 2013 are likely to experience losses. Of this 78 percent, more than two-thirds (54 percent) have already been liquidated though REO or foreclosure alternatives. The remaining 24 percent are either modified and not current or not modified but in the pipeline—that is, they will eventually be liquidated. 

    Obviously lower rates made a huge difference too but what happens when/if rates normalize? How much disposable income will we rip out of consumers' hands?  

    Rexx/StJ, Albo – Don't worry, he can always appoint Omorosa to Sec of State (she's currently the Communications Director, so already vetted).  

    November/Japar – If it's not by Nov expirations, it probably won't be until April but keep in mind, the suffering with the open shorts and margin required may be worse than taking, for instance, a $6K loss on the TZA's and then rolling to a longer spread.  The April $12s are $2.25 and the $16s are $1.05 so that would be a good roll with 0.75 left as it's just $1.20 so another $4,500 to buy another 6 months if Nov doesn't help but, of course, the Aprils will not give you much of a payout on a short-term dip, so I'd rather stay aggressive for now. 

  15. 04-Oct-17 13:41 ET


    GoPro shares dip as Google (GOOG) unveils new camera called Google Clips  (10.62 -0.47)

    Google Store


    04-Oct-17 13:40 ET


    GoPro — volume alert  (10.66 -0.47)



    02-Oct-17 06:13 ET


    GoPro target raised to $7 at Dougherty & Company — Increasing FY17 ests and launching FY18 ests post-HERO6 Black announcement  (11.01)

    Dougherty & Company raises their GPRO tgt to $7 from $5. In the wake of GoPro's launch of the HERO6 camera for $499, firm raises their ests for 2H17 and launching 2018 ests that assume 3% Y/Y growth. They note that 2018 should benefit from an easy Y/Y comp in Q1 and full-year contribution from HERO6. The result is a company generating just over $100MM of EBITDA on ~$1.35B in rev in FY18. Firm sees 8x EV/EBITDA and 0.8x EV/S as a fair price for a consumer electronics company with low margins and limited growth and thus are setting a new tgt; Sell.

     GPRO news and getting hit.  I sold a few 2020 $8 puts for 2.15

  16. McClellan Oscillator is still neutral.  Not showing markets overbought.  Indexes are getting high on RSI though, Dow is 79 RSI and Nasdaq Comp 68 RSI.

  17. Trump Tweeted: Why isn't the Senate Intel Committee looking into the Fake News Networks in OUR country to see why so much of our news is just made up-FAKE!

    They could start with FOX and looks like the investigation is starting to get hot under his feet.

  18. BDC – Greencoin/blockchain – Looks like blockchain for climate change has moved into the spotlight in a bigger way.  Upcoming #hack4climate hackathon and thought leaders looking at this as a solution.

  19. Netflix is on a huge tear

  20. Flynnpeachment…… :)

  21. OMER – Omeros settles w/ Par Pharma, Par 'acknowledges and confirms the validity of all asserted patents for OMIDRIA' .

    Scottmi –  I know you were in this one at onetime.    BTW, Do you know what happened to Hanj ?  He used to be very active here. 

  22. Lots of Fed speak today:

    • San Francisco Fed President John Williams continues to believe too-low inflation is a transitory phenomenon, and is optimistic it will rise to the 2% target over the next couple of years.
    • He also sees unemployment continuing to decline, and eventually dip below 4% next year.
    • The ultimate neutral setting of the Fed Funds rate should be 2.5%, assuming inflation reaches 2%.

    • "The bull market in everything," makes the cover of The Economist magazine, complete with the picture of a bull with all matter of rising assets hanging from his horns.
    • Magazine cover indicator fans will surely be discussing.

    Crude oil edges higher

    Natural gas inventory build comes in lower than expected

    IEA: Solar growing at record pace, faster than all other forms of power

    • Solar power grew faster than any other source of fuel for the first time in 2016, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency, showing how the falling cost of green technology is reshaping the global energy system.
    • Global solar capacity rose by 50% last year, and nearly two-thirds of net power capacity added was renewable, with 126 GW of solar and wind easily exceeding the 86 GW from coal and gas, and renewables are forecast to grow by another 43% over the next five years – the new growth forecasts are 12% higher than last year’s, the latest in a succession of upgrades.
    • IEA executive director Fatih Birol says renewables are rapidly eroding the dominance of coal-fired power, and contract prices for solar and wind power are “increasingly comparable or lower” than generation costs for newly built gas and coal-fired plants in markets including India, Mexico, Chile and the United Arab Emirates.
    • While China easily accounted for most of the renewables growth at 41%, the U.S. was second and surpassed the European Union as it added 24 GW of renewable power in 2016, up 44% Y/Y, the IEA says.
    • The Interior Department reportedly will propose delaying parts of an Obama administration rule to limit methane emissions from oil and gas production on federal lands, even after the U.S. Senate rejected a resolution to revoke the rule earlier this year.
    • The rule, finalized by the Bureau of Land Management two months before former Pres. Obama left office, requires oil and gas operators on public lands to prevent leaking, venting and flaring of methane.
    • Drillers on federal lands produced 9% of the natural gas and 5% of the oil in the U.S. last fiscal year.
    • The Trump administration is ordered by a federal judge to reinstate Obama-era regulationsrestricting methane emissions from oil and gas drilling on federal land, ruling that the Interior Department cannot legally postpone a rule that already has taken effect.
    • The ruling comes at the behest of California and other states, which charged the administration is required by law to enforce the new rules which took effect Jan. 17, three days before Pres. Trump’s inauguration.
    • The Interior Department had hoped to delay implementation of the rules until January 2019, saying they hurt the energy industry.

    • U.S. land drillers are the high end of their trading range and look vulnerable, according to the analysts at BMO Capital, who "recommend selling rallies” as they see just 10% upside to rig counts at current oil prices.
    • The firm thinks Helmerich & Payne (NYSE:HP) is clearly the most expensive U.S. driller, while Patterson-UTI Energy (NASDAQ:PTEN) is the most profitable of the group but still does not merit a Buy rating.
    • BMO believes HP is discounting a U.S. land rig count of at least 1,300 vs. 916 currently, based on a normalized multiple of 6.5x compared with a 5.7x historical average, and estimates HP's rig count needs to increase 15% to ~222 just to cover the dividend and maintenance capex.
    • PTEN is BMO's favorite U.S. land driller, but the firm estimates the shares currently discount a rig count of 1,000-1,100 based a 6x multiple, above the historical average of 4.8x due to PTEN’s improved fleet quality.

    Senate panel approves self-driving car bill

    • A Senate panel approved a self-driving car bill that creates a national framework of regulations for the industry.
    • The bill includes amendments covering cybersecurity issues and allows automakers to sell up to 80K self-driving vehicles annually if safety standards are met.
    • Self-driving commercial trucks aren't included in the legislation.
    • It's been a busy week on the autonomous vehicle front in general, with Ford (NYSE:F mappingits strategy to funnel investments into self-driving cars and General Motors (NYSE:GM) tipping off that its Cruise Automation business is making "rapid progress" on fully autonomous driving capabilities.
    • London Mayor Sadiq Khan approves of the “humility” shown by Uber’s (Private:UBER) new CEO, who met with Transport for London regulators Tuesday about the license loss.
    • Khan, chairman of TfL, notes that Khosrowshahi’s apology “bodes well in relation to the humility which hasn’t been shown by Uber London or Uber UK” and says he favors resolving differences “around a table rather than through litigation.”
    • Uber has 40K drivers and 3.5M customers in London. In 2016, revenue in the country rose 59% to $49M with pre-tax profits up 65% to about $4M. 
    • Drivers can still operate until the appeal process completes, which can take a while.
    • Uber has until October 13 to submit the appeal.  
    • Previously: Uber's day of important meetings (Oct. 3)

    • Boeing (NYSE:BAagrees to acquire drone maker Aurora Flight Sciences, in a bid to expand the company’s reach in the field of electric powered aircraft; financial terms are not disclosed.
    • Aurora also produces composite parts for aircraft and other vehicles; Boeing is looking to produce more of its own parts as part of an insourcing strategy to cut costs and potential disruptions in its supply chain.
    • The proposed purchase marks Boeing’s second acquisition in less than a year involving autonomous systems, following last December's deal for Liquid Robotics, a maker of ships and undersea vehicles.
    • Bombardier (OTCQX:BDRAFOTCQX:BDRBFlikely will face additional duties when the U.S. government issues a preliminary decision on Boeing's (NYSE:BA) dumping allegations tomorrow, a week after the U.S. slammed the Canadian planemaker with a 220% countervailing duty that has effectively shut the company out of the U.S. market for its CSeries jet.
    • Boeing had asked the Commerce Department to impose an 80% anti-dumping duty on U.S. imports of the CSeries, but hiked the figure to 143% after it said Bombardier withheld important information pertinent to the investigation.
    • But Desjardins analysts say improvements in the business jet market could be a key driver of Bombardier's profitability, which could offset the overhang caused by the ongoing trade spat.
    • Industry publication FlightGlobal has noted signs of improvement in the business jet market this year, including a 20% decline in the number of business jets available for sale, “a positive for Bombardier as lower inventories will likely stimulate demand for new aircraft,” Desjardins says.

    Las Vegas casinos dazzle with August numbers

    • Casinos in Nevada reported that gaming win revenue jumped 15% Y/Y in August to $989.51M. The "Money Fight" between Connor McGregor and Floyd Mayweather had a lot to do with the strong month.
    • Revenue on the Las Vegas Strip rocketed 21% to $545M during the month, while downtown LV casino revenue rose 13% to $48.5M.
    • Total slots revenue increased 5.1% to $625M during the month off a win percentage of 7.00% (down from 6.59% in July).
    • Games and tables revenue increased 37% to $365M off a win percentage of 14.21%. The win at sports books soared 1651% to $34M as the fight result went in favor of the casinos.
    • Nevada Gaming Control Board full report (.pdf)
    • The strong report on August is a shot in the arm for the sector, although there will still be some underlying concerns on the impact of the Las Vegas mass shooting incident on near-term bookings.

    ShotSpotter up 26% since Vegas shooting

    • ShotSpotter (NASDAQ:SSTI) is up 3.95% on the day on strong volume.
    • The gunfire-detecting stock is now up 27% since the mass shooting in Las Vegas.
    • investors appear to betting on potential upside for ShotSpotter with municipalities likely to assess the service.

    Snap -1% as Needham sees 10-20% downside on ad weakness

    • Snap (NYSE:SNAP) is 1% lower as Needham cuts estimates, foreseeing 10-20% price downside in the near term.
    • Channel checks are showing weakness in new advertiser spending, says analyst Laura Martin, and the stock is priced for perfection.
    • "We lower our estimates for SNAP’s Daily Active Users by 10% to 178mm (up 3% Q/Q), our ARPU estimate by 9% to $1.25 (from $1.37), our revenue estimate to $223mm (up 74% Y/Y and 12% below previous estimates), our projected EBITDA loss to $187mm (down 72% Y/Y and 20% below our previous estimates), and our EPS estimate to a loss of $0.33 (worse than SNAP’s 3Q16 EPS Loss of $0.13 and 3% below our prior estimate)," she writes.
    • "SNAP continues to have trouble proving out ROI to brands because SNAP is more of a top of funnel ad platform," she continues. Needham reiterates an Underperform on the stock
    • Optical equipment makers are lower in concert this morning after word of job cuts at NeoPhotonics (NPTN -11.1%) provides a hint that increased demand in China isn't materializing.
    • Acacia Communications (NASDAQ:ACIA) is down 3.1%; Oclaro (NASDAQ:OCLR-0.9%; Applied Optoelectronics (NASDAQ:AAOI-1.1%; Finisar (NASDAQ:FNSR-1%; and Lumentum Holdings (NASDAQ:LITE-0.9%.
    • NeoPhotonics draws 60% of its revenue from China, one of the biggest exposures to the Middle Kingdom, followed by Oclaro and Acacia.
    • NeoPhotonics (NYSE:NPTN) is down 10.4% in premarket action after it announced restructuring actions that will lead to job cuts, along with preliminary Q3 financials.
    • Restructuring actions include a force reduction along with real estate consolidation, a writedown of some inventory, and a writedown of idle assets.
    • “Lacking a clear indication of increased demand in China in the third quarter, we initiated several operational changes with the goal of expediting our return to profitability," says CEO/Chairman Tim Jenks.
    • The company's expecting costs of the actions of $4.8M ($4.2M in asset writeoffs and $0.6M in severance), incurring about $4.6M of that in Q3. But it's looking to immediately cut quarterly expenses, and expects a $2M reduction when fully realized in Q1 2018.
    • Meanwhile for Q3, preliminary revenues are seen at $69M-$71M (below consensus for $73.5M) and GAAP EPS is -$0.50 to -$0.40 (well below an expected -$0.16). Non-GAAP EPS is seen at -$0.35 to -$0.27 (vs. consensus for -$0.12).
    • Axios reasons that Merlin Entertainment is likely to limits its pursuit to Busch Gardens instead of all of SeaWorld Entertainment (SEAS -2.5%).
    • Dan Primack reminds that Merlin has an internal policy against keeping marine mammals in captivity. A scan of Merlin's website confirms his assertion.
    • "Since we began back in 1979 we’ve held firm to the belief that cetaceans – marine mammals like whales and dolphins – should not be kept in captivity," reads one of Merlin's pages.
    • Another nugget from Axios is on the deal price: "Key number is 23. That's the per share price that China's Zhonghong Zhuoye Group paid earlier this year to buy a 21% stake in Sea World from The Blackstone Group."
    • Previously: Options activity on SeaWorld Entertainment picks up (Oct. 2)
    • Previously: Seaworld jumps 7% on report of buyer interest (Oct. 4)
    • Previously: SeaWorld Entertainment in the spotlight (Oct. 5)

    Netflix increases streaming service prices

    • Netflix (NFLX +3.3%) hikes the price of its most popular U.S. streaming service by 10%.
    • The standard service currently billed at $9.99 will roll to a $10.99 pricing in November, while the premium level goes to $13.99 from $11.99.
    • Source: Netflix website
    • Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is testing out a new delivery service that will make more products available for free two-day delivery.
    • The program sees more deliveries made straight from the warehouses of its third-party merchants to the homes of customers. The method cuts down on warehouse overcrowding and could potentially reduce Amazon's reliance on FedEx (NYSE:FDX) and UPS (NYSE:UPS).
    • A broader roll-out is expected in 2018.
    • In premarket trading, FedEx is down 2% and UPS is off 3%.
    • FedEx (NYSE:FDX) is now down only 0.42% and UPS (NYSE:UPS) is off 0.98% as some of the early fears on news of an Amazon test of delivery peel back.
    • Though the test is small in scale, analysts think the implications could be significant.
    • "Given the investments that Amazon is making in fulfillment infrastructure and transportation to support its own retail business, we view it simply a matter of time until they offer these services to third parties more broadly," notes Baird analyst Colin Sebastian.
    • Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker says it's not a stretch that Amazon one day delivers goods for seller who don't even sell on Amazon. The firm says in a rough estimate that UPS has revenue exposure to Amazon of 5% to 10% and FedEx's exposure is at 3%.
    • Sources: CNBC and Bloomberg
    • Previously: Amazon tests delivery service (Oct. 5)
    • Previously: European postal names tremble off Amazon news (Oct. 5)

    WSJ: Alphabet nearing potential $1B land deal in Toronto

    • Alphabet (GOOGGOOGL) nears a deal to develop a 12-acre chunk of the Toronto waterfront, according to The Wall Street Journal sources.
    • The tech giant’s Sidewalk Labs unit would back the construction projects, which will initially create a 3M square foot facility to pair with a 750-acre development on adjacent land. Sidewalk wants to build a “digital city” to showcase tech in a physical environment.  
    • Details are scarce but construction cost estimates put the project over $1B.  
    • Previously: Google Pixel 2 launch event: Live updates (Oct. 4)

  23. NFLX finds a great way to boost the stock – 10% inflation for their subscribers.

    They have $9Bn in revenues and just $200M in profits so, if this goes well, another $1Bn in revenues should all drop to the bottom line (assuming they haven't pumped up expenses to match) but, unfortunately, they are still valued at $82Bn so still 75x potential earnings but at least better than the current 410x.  

  24. NFLX/Phil

    They need the extra billion for the extra billions they are spending in content.

  25. 11:50


    L Brands Director disclosed purchase of 26,500 shares worth about $995K (transaction date 8.18) 


    LB recovery this am but note transaction date

  26. What is the method used with super low volume to keep pulling prices up?  Is there actually some buy/sell  price collusion or is it just a continuous stream of mom and pops afraid of losing out on the bull run or…?

  27. Is it my imagination or are we going to hit 2600 by the end of the day.

  28. New member here — Phil (or anybody else) when and where was the long for /CL called? Thanks

  29. And I saw GPRO keep going down so I sold a 2020 $12 call.  Don't know what to do in this market except try to go neutral and wait for a pullback to buy calls.  Just did it with DIS too.

  30. I'm calling the top for today and forever, right now, just short of 2550.

  31. Baron… thanks, so glad it's done… LOL 

  32. OMER/Albo – still have some shares, but not big.  Haven't heard from Hanj since..whever we last saw him in here. Hey Hanj, you out there?

  33. Phil, all – Potential stock idea -  AAOI? 

  34. Ilene, here's what had this am-  NeoPhotonics (-12%) weighing on optical stocks premarket after lowering Q3 guidance and announcing restructuring  (5.86)

    10/5/2017, 9:20:34 AM ET

    NeoPhotonics lowered Q3 rev to $69-71 mln (down 32% Y/Y) from $70-76 mln and announced restructuring.

    "Lacking a clear indication of increased demand in China in the third quarter, we initiated several operational changes with the goal of expediting our return to profitability, including implementing certain restructuring initiatives designed to align our business with the current demand environment and lowering manufacturing output to manage inventory levels."

    NPTN -11.60%; optical peers: FNSR -2.93% ACIA -2.65% (MKM was out cautious) LITE -2.16% OCLR -2.06% FN -0.77% AAOI +0.08%

  35. Clearly I was premature in calling the top and my apologies as S&P blew through R3 with volume.  Maybe a blow-off but I am short IWM which seems weak.

  36. You'd think the dollar rising would slow things down… nothing matters.

    We have now entered the Twilight Zone.

    I refuse to admit to anyone I am still short… 

  37. Thanks, Baron!  My thinking is that AAOI already lowered guidance, so maybe it's built in, i.e., maybe the situation is not worse than the company knows. I believe AAOI doesn't do much business in China, but I could be wrong about that.  

  38. KNDI – well, i'm still holding.

  39. ilene,  So tough to go long on much now.  I had been watching AAOI too.  I will wait to see if that early Sept consolidation and rising 200 MA hold.

  40. Son of a bitch with this constant move up!  

    Why would anyone worry?  

    Don't be greedy on oil – it's just a tropical storm.

    Method/Tangled – There's a constant inflow from 401K/IRA funds and that's all bullish (how many 401K brochures have you seen offering contra funds?) and it generally goes into ETFs or custom indexes that buy the major indexes and their components.  ETFs are also how foreign funds and banks buy our stocks and BOJ, ECB, Norway, Swiss, are all buying US equities as well at the EU and Asia stuff.  

    So, in absence of selling, the market will always tend to drift up and more so in thinner trading since the total employment contribution tends to stay level (and it's actually strong right now due to full employment).  Without a catalyst that brings out the sellers – the market can go up for a very long time.  

    The next phase to a rally is people coming off the sidelines who feel they are missing out and then the short sellers stop shorting as well – that's how we get these crazy tops that seem like they'll never end and it always seems that way deep into a bubble.  

    Back in 2007, I used to compare that bubble to a roach motel, you can buy in but you can't sell out.  It took about 18 months of my complaining that the market was toppy but, once the selling started, people understood what I was talking about as you simply couldn't find buyers for your stocks and prices dropped in gaps until they could find the next dip buyer and, pretty quickly, even the dip buyers stopped buying and THEN we began to endure some very painful price discovery.    

    All we can do is go with the flow.  I wanted to park our portfolios in neutral into earnings but, if they turn out well – I'll certainly redeploy cash to more longs.  God knows we have enough hedges to cover it!  

    2,600/Baron – Why stop there?  blush

    Welcome Dreamer!   The long on /CL was from pre-market chat, which came at the end of yesterday's comments.  Generally, before the new post is up, we do some chatting at the end of the old one.  

    October 5th, 2017 at 8:04 am | (Unlocked) | Permalink

    /RB got an early start this week but oil still $50.08.

    That's pretty unusual, /CL makes a good long with tight stops over the $50 line as long as /RB is over $1.60.  $50.07 now.

    It was an easy call as Brent was up and Gasoline was up and the indexes were up and oil was lagging but still over the $50 line, which was excellent support and Monday we had been discussing that we expected oil to have a strong bounce back to $51 before possibly heading back below $50. 

    That's how trade ideas develop as PSW – they may seem like they are quick calls but this was something we'd been watching all week and this morning was just the right opportunity to grab the longs.  

    Neutral/Baron – I think it's best for now. 

    Major Dow/S&P component on a tear:

    • Boeing (BA +0.9%) reports Q3 deliveries across its commercial and defense operations rose 7.4% Y/Y to 202, helped by higher demand for its single-aisle 737 jetliners.
    • BA reports deliveries of 145 of the 737s in the quarter, more than 20% from 120 a year earlier, but deliveries of 787 Dreamliners fell to 35 from 36 and deliveries of 777 planes fell to 16 from 22.
    • BA says it has delivered a 554 total planes YTD and expects to deliver 760-765 for the full year.


    • Omeros (OMER +6.4%settles its OMIDRIA (phenylephrine and ketorolac injection) patent infringement litigation with generic challenger Par Pharmaceuticals.
    • Under the terms of the settlement, Par will be prohibited from launching a generic version of the eye drug until April 1, 2032. If and when Par does launch, Omeros will earn a 15% royalty on net sales until the last of its patents expires on October 23, 2033.
    • MannKind (MNKD +40.4%) builds on its torrid pace on more than a 4x surge in volume. Shares have rallied over 164% in a week.
    • Several days ago the FDA approved updated labeling for inhaled fast-acting insulin AFREZZA.
    • The company's cash/cash equivalent balance was $43.4M at the end of June, which included $19.4M in borrowings from the Mann Group. Operations consumed $11.5M in H1.
    • Previously: MannKind ahead 9% premarket on Afrezza label update (Oct. 2)
    Yay!  More protectionism!  Whirlpool jumps after trade commission ruling
    • Whirlpool (WHR +1.3%) shoots higher after a favorable ruling from the U.S. trade commission on the unfair practices of Samsung and LG.
    • Details will be posted as the story develops.

    Speaking of Trump destroying investors faith in US bonds:

    AAOI/Ilene – Well, I called the top in July (and I hope that worked out for Millard) and we've certainly like FNSR better.  I'd like to see if AAOI finds a floor but they're not a bad little company though still pricey with $30M in earnings last year and a $1.1Bn valuation – even at $57.  FNSR, on the other hand is fetching $2.2Bn at $22 but making $250Bn for a p/e of 10.  So they're going to get my money over the "fast grower with good prospects" when they are this cheap!

    Submitted on 2017/07/19 at 12:43 pm

    AAOI/Millard – Well what's a bird in the hand worth?  I assume you have maybe a 100% gain on the spread that's safely in the money and netting $9 out of a possible $10.  It's really too deep in the money to mess around with but the $70s are $26.10 and the Jan $90s are $21 so I would do that roll and buy 2019 $90 ($28.25)/110 ($22) bull call spreads to cover for $6.25 and put stops on the Sept $60s ($35.20) at $34 (under $92.50) and, if you are lucky, you cash the $34 on a dip and pay the short callers less than $20 and retain more than half the 2019 spread and you'll be getting $12+ instead of $10.  Is it worth it?  Not really – it was a good play – time to move on – especially if you have no particular reason to be bearish on them now. 

    In fact, since they are not heading lower with the group today – I'd say they are done going down.  We already have the FNSR 2019 $23/30 bull call spread in the LTP with 1/2 the short $25 puts and that's good for a new trade still at a net $1,000 credit on 10/5.  In the LTP we have just the $23 longs (now $4.50) and the short $25 puts ($6.10) and that's good for a new trade too.

    In fact, for the LTP:

    Let's roll our 20 FNSR 2019 $23 calls ($4.50) to the $18 calls ($6.90) and double down there so 40 longs and we'll cover with 20 $28 calls at $2.90 which more than pays for the roll and, if FNSR does well, we can roll the short calls to 2x a higher strike and, if not, we sell more calls and drop the net of the new $10 spread to about $4 so, either way, a good play.  

  41. Donald Trump’s chilling escalation of his war with the media

  42. Thanks Phil and Baron. If the market were to sell off a bit, it would be easier to find ideas. smiley

  43. Trump’s Scandals, a List

  44. Some in GOP open to banning gun accessory used in Vegas

  45. KEM/Phil – a P/E of 5 up here at it's highs.. still cheap?

  46. Interesting that I focus on a GS position adjustment yesterday and the stock pops more than $5. Same thing happened when I mentioned a PCLN position adjustment a while back. Seems too much of a coincidence, however far fetched it may seem.

  47. The GOP is on its deathbed

  48. Boeing and the U.S. Department of Cronyism

  49. Study: For-profits to blame for most student debt defaults

  50. Hi Phil.   I am short 5 LMT Dec17 315 calls (basis 420);  long 5 Jan19 220 calls (44.50); short 5 Jan19 200 puts (13.30).  Closed out short Jan19 calls awhile ago.  Stock at 315 today.   Roll the Dec17 calls?  Reinstate a BCS?  Advice please.

  51. Phil

    What do you think of

     Uniti Group Inc. UNIT  ?

    shares seemed to have bottomed

    15% yield


  52. KEM/Scott – Nice, boring company who recently did a dilutive secondary (8.4M, 20%), raising cash at the top ($24) so good for them.  That caused the dip back to $20 but it paid for much of the debt they picked up acquiring Tokin earlier this year.  With a $1.1Bn valuation and $50M in earnings last year, I don't think I'd call the p/e 5.  They had a one-time event last Q that boosted them but I think they can certainly earn at least $100M consistently, so $1.1Bn is still a good price. I wish I'd noticed them last year, when they were out of favor.

    Options only go out to March but you can sell March $17 puts for $1 and net $16 is a good entry and, if not – free money.  

    Coincidence/Winston – I think in a slow market, our little group may be unduly influential.  

    LMT/Taihu – So you have 5 2019 $220/Dec $315 bull call spreads with the short 2019 $200 puts?  You have great profits so why not take some off the table.  

    The 2019 $220s are $96 and you can roll those to 10 of the $300 ($30)/350 ($10) bull call spreads at $20 so $40 there and $56 off the table and then you can wait out Dec to see if they expire worthless or if you should roll them.  Even if they pop, you can just buy another 5 longs for $30 and you'd still have $26 in your pocket with $150 of additional spreads that are in the money.  If they pull back or stay flat, the March $320 calls are $10 so $5,000 for 5 new shorts is a very nice return while you ride out a dip.

    UNTI/QC – We discussed them last week:

    UNIT/Ult – It seems their revenues are about 70% dependent on WIN and WIN is having their own troubles and may not be able to pay down the road.   UNIT puts out a bit too much of their profits in dividends, so they have no ability to pivot away from WIN's business.

    That means, either there has to be a dividend cut or they continue to be a one-trick pony where people are catching on to the trick.  After they cut the dividend and people freak out about that – THEN they may be worth a closer look.

    Submitted on 2017/09/28 at 11:23 am

    UNIT/DC – Those are great points in favor of bottom-fishing but I'd still wait for the dividend cut to play out.  Sellers are merciless when dividends get taken away, no matter how silly they were.

    Submitted on 2017/09/28 at 2:40 pm

    UNIT/Stu – Well they COULD put some of that money to work instead of distributing it.  REITs are allowed to invest in growing the business.  Now, it's possible the management, like the article above, feels the money from WIN is solid and may also feel that, at this point in time, buying new lines and towers is overpriced in this market so they'd rather wait for a nice collapse and THEN use their cash-flow to pick up cheap assets but, for now – they'll just distribute what they don't need.   Sounds good, right?

    Shoes haven't dropped yet but there certainly are buyers down here.  They just did a presentation and people seem happy with it.  Keeping in mind it's risky, I'd start by selling the 2019 $12.50 puts for $3.50 and wait to see if $15 is really a good floor (through earnings) before looking at bull spreads.   It's not like it will get away – the 2019 $17.50 calls are $2.80 and the $25s are $1.30 so net $1.50 on the $7.50 spread and you can buy 2x of those for each put sale – so why rush?  

  53. Thanks.  One issue I have is whether to wait until December when I've held the longs for a year.

    On the short 200 puts, would you roll them up?

  54. Phil – any thoughts on Gold ? seems like it is undervalued.



  55. CELG – who's not participating in today's gains? not many, but CELG is one that really isn't. and of course, Cramer plugged them this morning as "not a sell!"

  56. Speaking of influential, the Nasdaq is now giving me a monthly half-hour show.  Between that and my every other week spots (that they want to continue) and my quarterly gig at BNN – I'm going to quite the TV personality.  Which I guess is why my lunch is MOSTLY GRASS!!!  Yes, I'm still doing that vegan diet.  It's actually excellent but boy do I miss steaks!  

    Refiners slip as senators warn EPA on fuel mandates

    • Shares of oil refiners slide to session lows after a group of 38 U.S. senators asks the EPA not to make changes to U.S. renewable fuel mandates, including possible reductions in annual quotas for biodiesel and cellulosic ethanol.
    • The senators, including Sen. Grassley of Iowa, say in the letter that the EPA should restructure its proposal for the 2018 version of a rule that each year forces producers of oil-based fuels to include renewable fuels such as ethanol in their products.
    • “The rule unjustifiably flatlines biomass-based diesel, reduces advanced biofuels and reduces the cellulosic biofuel blending target by about 25%,” the letter says. “The final rule should address these shortfalls.”
    • The Trump administration issued some bold statements on its commitment to invest in space exploration.
    • "We will return Americans astronauts to the moon, not only to leave behind footprints and flags but to build the foundation we need to send Americans to Mars and beyond," Vice President Mike Pence promised today at the first meeting of the National Space Council.
    • "America seems to have lost our edge in space. And those days are over," he added.
    • Previously: White House to talk space priorities (Oct. 5)
    • Space watch: SpaceX (Private:SPACE), Boeing (BA +0.7%), Lockheed Martin (LMT +0.5%), Northrop Grumman (NOC), Orbital ATK (OA -0.5%).
    • A start-up company backed by Boeing (BA +0.5%) and JETBlue (JBLU +0.1%)  unveils plans to bring a hybrid-powered airplane to market by 2022 that can dramatically reduce the travel time and cost of trips under 1,000 miles.
    • Electric vehicle batteries would power two motors, and a supplemental gas engine and electrical generator would be used to give the plane a range of 700 miles, says Matt Knapp, co-founder and chief aeronautic engineer of Seattle-based Zunum Aero.
    • The planes eventually would fly solely on battery power and are being designed to fly with one pilot and to eventually be remotely piloted, Knapp says.
    • Recent advances in electric vehicle and autonomous technology, along with lightweight electric motors and carbon composite airframes, would cut the cost of flying Zunum's aircraft to ~$0.08 per seat-mile, about a fifth of the cost for a small jet or turboprop plane, Knapp says.
    • The FDA's approval of Mylan's generic version of Teva Pharmaceutical Industries' (TEVA -1.1%) top selling Copaxone (glatiramer acetate) at both the 40 mg and 20 mg strengths is not its only headache.
    • Apparently, privately held firms Alvogen, based in South Korea, and Dutch outfit Synthon just received approval in Europe to market a generic 40 mg version, the more popular dose. The companies already promote the 20 mg version.
    • Mylan plans to promote the 40 mg version in Europe per its partnership with Synthon. It says it has exclusive distribution rights in Western Europe and Scandinavia.
    • Copaxone sales in Europe are ~$590M, about 15% of the drug's $4B global sales.
    • The average rate for the benchmark 30-year mortgage popped to a six-week high, according to Freddie Mac's latest weekly survey.
    • The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.85% for the week ending Oct. 5, up from 3.83% last week, and the 15-year fixed averaged 3.15%, up from 3.13%; a year ago at this time, the 30-year and 15-year fixed rates averaged a respective 3.42% and 2.72%.
    • YouTube (GOOGGOOGLrolls out a search result change that favors authoritative sources for breaking news stories.
    • The change comes after videos with disproven information appeared near the top of search results for the Las Vegas shooter and for the NFL anthem protests.
    • YouTube says the undisclosed search changes were in the works already but accelerated due to recent events. The site had altered its search results earlier this year due to advertiser concerns about the types of content carrying the ads. 
    • Google faces criticism for allowing false information from a message board to appear in its “top news” section for the Las Vegas shooting.   
    • In other Google news, the company announces that Pixel 2 or Pixel 2 XL buyers using the Project Fi wireless service will no longer have to wait for a SIM card in the mail. The company can simply activate an eSIM inside the phone. 
    • Pixel 2 users will also qualify for three years of OS updates in a move to woo customers away from Apple’s iPhone.    
    • Previously: Google Pixel 2 launch event: Live updates (Oct. 4)
    • Whirlpool says it is pleased with the unanimous decision of the U.S. International Trade Commission that a surge of large residential washer imports from Samsung and LG have seriously injured American manufacturers and workers.
    • "The ITC vote is an important win for American manufacturers and American workers," says Whirlpool CEO Jeff Fettig.
    • The ITC will vote on a remedy in November before making an official recommendation to President Trump in December.
    • Previously: Whirlpool jumps after trade commission ruling (Oct. 5)
    • Source: Press Release
    • Even amid all the negativity surrounding General Electric (GE) and its prospects, Credit Suisse analyst Julian Mitchell believes 2018 will be the floor for GE's earnings and maintains an Outperform rating on the shares.
    • At the same time, Credit Suisse trims its forward EPS estimates to $1.52 from $1.63 for 2017, to $1.54 from $1.80 for 2018, and to $1.69 from $2.00 for 2019, citing weakening power generation trends, higher restructuring costs, reduced share buybacks and accounting changes.
    • The firm thinks GE management at the Nov. 13 shareholder meeting will be able to point to 2018 for improving free cash flow and bottoming EPS, which should support the stock; the higher FCF should mean the dividend yield starts to return towards its recent average of 3.3%, which would imply a fair value for the shares at $29-$30.

    LMT/Taihu – At this point, I'd look at the short calls as locking in profits but I'd do the roll and get cash off the table now – just in case.  As to the put roll – I'd wait for the 2020s to come out.  

    Gold/Pat – I think gold is just right at the moment.  It's too easy to make money mining it at $1,250 (ABX averages less than $900) so more supply comes on-line and there's no particular major uptick in demand and people sure aren't worried about anything (see VIX) so why would gold go up?

    ABX, on the other hand, is ridiculously undervalued as they have 90M ounces of gold ($114Bn) in proven reserves but, more importantly, at a $350 spread to mining costs so $31.5Bn and you can buy the entire company at $16.42 for $18.8Bn.  I don't know of many better ways to turn $18.8Bn into $31.5Bn and you are still getting fantastic upside leverage if gold prices go up.

    We already have plenty of ABX but, as a new trade, I'd go with:

    • Sell 10 ABX 2020 $15 puts for $1.95 ($1,950)
    • Buy 20 ABX 2020 $13 calls for $5.15 ($10,300) 
    • Sell 20 ABX 2020 $20 calls for $2.15 ($4,300) 

    That's net $4,050 on the $14,000 spread that's $6,800 in the money to start.  Upside potential is $9,950 (245%), which is really good as it's a fairly conservative play. 

    CELG/Scott – Well they were due for a correction (hard to come by in these markets)

  57. Phil as long as we are talking LMT, I have 2019 200 puts and 220/260 BCS, forgot all about it but way over target.  Any suggested adjustment.  Looks like I have about 40% of the full profit, not  counting the puts which are about 80% up.

  58. Tai, Baron LMT

    The 200 put has still 2.45 of premium and even if you would roll to 250 you only get 3.50 more however if LMT would drop 20% you put yourself in a more risky position. I do have the same position as Baron has above, I would leave it just alone and sell shorter month cherry calls against the position. No harm making money on your leap BCS while you wait. My 2 cents.

  59. ERII – tiny 450MM company, but some big call volume in Feb calls

  60. Baron – "That's some musical that catalogue you have upstairs."

    Thank you. That 2.4 petabytes has to be used for something. 

  61. HZNP – jumping up to breakout over 200dma .. on way to closing gap at $15?

  62. WOW!  The NRA actually calls for regulation of bump stocks.   I never expected that.

  63. LMT/Baron – The spread is $36 out of $40 so it's not really a roll, you're just cashing out and looking for a new play.  LMT is up 50% from where we picked it last year and I wouldn't chase them but I would take the $36 off the table as we can certainly find better things to do than wait 16 months to make 10%, right?  When and if there's a pullback, then take another look but surely there are better bargains out there than a stock that's 20% over your target already.  

    And what Yodi said re. the puts.  I'd certainly wait for 2020 to come out before moving those.

    ERII/Scott – Also tiny $1M earnings.  Little fish, throw back in the ocean and see if it survives.  

    2.4 petabytes/Naybob – No, that's what current edition brains have.  According to Moore's law, earlier edition brains were 1/10 as powerful each 10 years we go back so in your case we divide 2.4 petabytes by 10 to the 7th (10M) which is roughly 240GB.  So, basically, we can fit all you know on a new IPhone!  cheeky

    How much is a petabyte?

    Image result for brain petabytes

    Image result for brains java man modern man cartoon

  64. NRZ/Yodi – would you setup an armchair trade with these guys?

  65. Geeze, if a petabyte is 13.5 years of HD TV and I can remember every season of every version of Star Trek (among other less useful things) – how can my storage capacity only be 2.5 petabytes?  Jackie's friend can tell you the exact episode and plot for any song that was ever on Glee (among other things – her memory is amazing).  

  66. NRA/Tangled – Good move by them.  They would have really pissed people off fighting it and going with the flow on this one makes them seem reasonable (relatively). 

  67. BYD – having a good day, and just pushed itself into a screen with a new jump in the last hour.

  68. Phil – "basically, we can fit all you know on a new IPhone!"

    Not even, in a thimble.  And now this…

    Phil – "Speaking of influential, the Nasdaq is now giving me a monthly half-hour show.  Between that and my every other week spots (that they want to continue) and my quarterly gig at BNN – I'm going to quite the TV personality.  Which I guess is why my lunch is MOSTLY GRASS!!!  Yes, I'm still doing that vegan diet.  It's actually excellent but boy do I miss steaks!  "

    Congratulations on the NAZ show, my condolences on the graisse show.  Remember that chart you posted yesterday with death tolls, we have included some more critical data and now….

    War Related Deaths 1775 – 2017 = 1.2M in 242 years

    Firearms Related Deaths 1968 – 2015 = 1.5M in 47 years

    Obesity Related Deaths 2000 – 2017 = 6.0M in 18 years

    Now there's your moment of Zen. Enjoy the wheatgrass or for an even bigger Zen moment…

    The food pyramid and calorie based diets are nothing but bogus science being pushed onto the masses for the benefit of special interests. The chain of corporate manipulation knows no ends, nor does its profit motive have any conscience.  I trust them as far as I can throw them.

    Prior to making any dietary changes, which may seriously impact ones health, physically and mentally like vegan diets can and do,  I highly recommend reading Death By Food Pyramid by Denise Minger.  Ms. Minger was a vegan, until she learned the truth is out there, and Out.

    Estimate of 375K deaths per year from a dated 1999 study.

    Confirming recent study estimating 1 in 5 obesity related deaths for ages 40 – 85.

  69. NAVI – no, i'm not buying this dip.

  70. Vegan/Naybob – Well the reason I can stick to this diet is it's only 5 of 7 days a week.  I get steak and sushi on my cheat days and, frankly, I feel great, which is what matters.  Expensive but worth it – Sakara.

    Well, looks like we're pinning the highs into the close – even oil is holding up ($50.76).  

  71. CORT/Pharm – nice run, going strong $2B company continuing with new highs. Upcoming pharma blockbuster company?

  72. Scott NRZ  11.5% div per year six year old company.. As most REIT stocks they are exposed to new increases of interest rates by the FED. I would have liked the stock better at 15.00. They are on top of the scale at 17.25. I would wait. You could buy the stock and sell the May 16/17 strangle for 1.45 and you could achieve a combined return of 2% per month. But as I said I would look for a dip.

  73. Phil,

    A few years ago my wife found she was in 95% for heart attack due to cholesterol and blockage.  But she looked great.  Went vegan plus meds and within a couple of years had a complete turn-around.  A little skinny if you don't mind hourglasses but she needs to keep on the diet to keep her blood right, otherwise those numbers start going the wrong way.  So its difficult but worth.  Good luck.  Thanks for advice on LMT, thinking that advice would hold true for RTN bought at same time.

  74. NRZ/Yodi – thanks. that's about the same thing I was thinking, and same numbers.  too chasey for me (though I've passed on SO MANY monsters because I thought was 'chasey' back when..)

  75. Nice reversal in LB off the morning lows.

  76. stocks and dollar finishing on the highs.. amazing

  77. Could be an interesting opening tomorrow after the jobs report. 

  78. Diet/Baron – Fortunately, I'm not doing it for health reasons (not directly).  My Grandpa Max was also a big guy and healthy as a horse into his late 90s.  All the non-smoking men in my family lived into their 90s.  Still, I don't want to push my luck and I figure it took me over 20 years of fun to gain 100 pounds (when I was 30 I was trying to gain weight!) so, if I can take 100 pounds off – I can start having fun for another 20 years!  

  79. Phil too many 20$ hamburgers !!!!

  80. That hamburger was $50.  

    Good morning all!

    Flat seems to be the new down. 

  81. New N.S.A. Breach Linked to Popular Russian Antivirus Software

  82. AP source: Man behind Trump dossier talks to investigators

  83. How To Detonate A Star

  84. Guns and the Soul of America

  85. President Trump plans to ‘decertify’ Iran nuclear deal next week

  86. Huckabee Sanders Gets Nasty With San Juan Mayor

  87. The Key to Campbell Soup’s Turnaround? Civility.

  88. Putin and Saudi king turn the page on decades of tensions

  89. A Republican Crackup?

  90. Global shares mixed as political pressures build in Europe

  91. Donald Trump is treating a potential war like a reality show cliffhanger

  92. Study: Over half of for-profit students defaulted on loans

  93. Not so sweet: 75 percent of honey samples had key pesticide