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Faltering Thursday – GOP Losses and Trump’s Lack of China Deal Spook Markets

China Donald Trump & Xi Jinping (Reuters/D. Sagolj)Mr. Trump went to China.  

That's it, nothing happened.  The deal-maker in chief made no deals, though he did take credit for $250Bn in business deals, which were actually the course of our normal trade with China, like $36Bn worth of Boeing (BA) planes, most of which were already part of their existing backlog.  While these transparent attempts to puff himself up may work with the gullible US voters, Trump faced mockery in the Chinese press – even the "official" press which said: "Emotional venting cannot become a guiding policy for solving the nuclear issue on the peninsula."

There was no trade deal, no pushback on exports, no movement on China's currency manipulation, NOTHING which Trump promised during the campaign and nothing is coming from Trump's "great friendship" with China's President Xi.  Trump went so far, in fact, to absolve China for unfair trade practices saying they were only doing what's best for their country and it was the fault of past US Presidents for making bad deals – like the one he is sticking to by leaving China empty-handed.  

"After all, who can blame a country for being able to take advantage of another country for the benefit of its citizens. I give China great credit, but in actuality I do blame past administrations for allowing this out-of-control trade deficit to take place." 

Japan's Nikkei went on a wild ride last night and is currently off 1.666% at 22,580 after bottoming out at 22,500 and we noted this action in Tuesday's morning Report and shorted the Dow Futures at 23,500 in our Live Trading Webinar yesterday along with Oil (/CL at $57.50) and, yesterday, in our Live Member Chat Room, my comment to our Members into the close (3:58) was:

Indexes curling over, Good time to short /ES at 2,590 (tight stops above).  Lined up with 23,500, 6,340 and 1,480.

Those last 3 were, of coure, the Futures for the Dow (/YM), Nasdaq (/NQ) and Russell (/TF) and the Dow has already gone below 23,400 for a nice $500 per contract win while the S&P (/ES) just hit 2,575, which is good for gains of $750 per contract overnight.  Oil already hit our goal at $56.50 and that was good for $1,000 per contract gains as well and we even FINALLY sqeezed a small profit out of Gasoline (/RB) as it came back to the $1.80 line.

We're taking quick profits here because no sell-off has lasted more than a few hours recently but it's fun to pick up a little side cash once in a while – so we don't feel like we're totally wasting our time on our hedges.  By the way, we discussed a good TZA hedging strategy yesterday – that's still in play for the moment.  

Meanwhile, we continue to make stupid money in our portfolios.  For example, back on Sept 6th I appeared on BNN's Money Talk, where we initiated a new $50,000 Portfolio to track our picks and already, just two month's later, our 4 positions have rocketed up 61.2%, driving the net up to $80,587 for a quick $30,587 gain:

If the market is going to just keep printing money like this, far be it for us to not play the game but this is RIDICULOUS, returns like this are simply not sustainable over the long run – where is all the money supposed to come from?  On the show, I noted we liked Limited Brands (LB) enough to make it our Stock of the Year for 2018 and that spread required just a net $3,400 cash outlay (the short puts require margin too) and already the net of the spread is up to $14,850 for a gain of $11,450 (336%) and, again, this is just 62 days later!  

Just to be clear though, it is RIDICULOUS that we have a market where I can go on live TV and tell Millions of people how to make 336% returns on their cash in 62 days.  I may be good but this is a broken market with RIDICULOUS price mis-matches that, in theory, shouldn't last but, in practice, they just keep going on and on as the Fed's insane monetary policy continues to feed the bubble.  

This is why we hedge.  This is also why we have so much CASH!!! on the sidelines (have I mentioned how much I love CASH!!! lately?).  For one thing, we can make PLENTY of profits with small trades like the ones above – we don't need to over-commit and, for antoher thing, we want to stay very liquid to take advantage of the correction – if it ever comes.  As I mentioned last month, I could not hedge my children's 529 college plans effectively so I CASHED!!! them in.  I'll put the money back to work in January, if we survive those earnings but I couldn't imagine leaving unhedged money in play as we head into the end of 2017.

Please, be careful out there!  


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  1. ~~ M – Macy's beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY18 guidance.  

  2. albo--do you think M will be over 18 today?

  3. Jabob – Dunno, but weak market doesn't help.

    Have been looking for a transcript of their conference call to see if they addressed the dividend.

  4. Well, at least it "shouldn't" crash like the other FU stocks did after their ERs…. I hope

  5. Good Morning, All!

    The webinar replay is up!

  6. CTL intends to continue to pay their extremely high dividend.

    ~~This from Jeff Storey, COO of CTL and prior CEO of LVLT

     "I want to get my perspective on the CenturyLink dividend. I've had the chance to speak with the board of directors, Glen and Sunit about it and we all agree, we are firmly committed to the dividend. As I look at our financial plans over the next few years, I'm confident about our ability to meet the dividend obligation and believe it is an important component of our equity story.."

    If this happens, I'd think the stock would move up to make the yield 8-9%.  But I have been very wrong on this stock.

  7. Go M!


  8. ROKU – Now up 20%.

  9. M revenues down. Earnings just financial engineering?

  10. Good morning and wheeeeee!  

    Indexes all going down in synch, this may be a reflection of the death of tax cuts leading people to start selling now, instead of waiting until next year.  It's also possible that the relentless sell-off of the FU-type stocks was also tax-related, as people need offset losses this year (so they sell whatever is down) but will buy back in as soon as they clear the wash rules – that one we'll have to wait and see on. 

    M/Jabob – Over $18 already, silly boy.  cool  Earning $3 per $18 share could be my Stock of the Year for next year since LB has gotten away from us.  

    In the very least, M should be a Top Trade today as we can certainly say we'd LOVE to own them at this level:

    • Sell 10 M 2020 $20 puts for $6 ($6,000)
    • Buy 30 M 2020 $15 calls for $5.20 ($15,600) 
    • Sell 30 M 2020 $22 calls for $3 ($9,000) 

    That's net $600 on the $21,000 spread that's $3 ($9,000) in the money to start (but you have to clear $20 to cash in the longs without impairment).  Seriously, this would be my Trade of the Year for 2018 if it were Thanksgiving at this price!   M is already in the OOP and LTP and I'll consider later if I want to adjust but today's report justified our targets.  

    KSS misses – that one was a no-brainer.  JWN Will have to break the tie.  

    Big Chart – RUT kissed that 50 dma so now we look for the bounce between the 5% line (1,512) and the 2.5% line (1,471) so 41 points is 8-point weak bounce to 1,479 and 16-point strong bounce to 1,487 but we're BELOW that line now at 1,469 and that's a very bearish sign (as I've been saying all week).  If the NYSE confirms this move, the Nasdaq has a very long way to fall to catch up but so does the Dow and S&P.

    CTL/Albo – It's like FTR – no one wants to be in a utility company, especially a Telco, when you can make 336% in 2 months trading LB (or my M trade above).  

    ROKU/Albo – That's a very good sign for PSWI's FUNN investment.  

  11. Phil – I remember you mentioned FUNN.  Good deal.

  12. We own about 2% of FUNN and ROKU just blasted past $2.5Bn.  FUNN is a long way from an IPO but have been raising cash from VC's.  We'll probably get diluted along the way but you don't have to own much of a Billion Dollar company to be happy.  ROKU goes way back to 2002, we were in the first round of FUNN two years ago. 

  13. I guess I should have will it STAY above 18 today. These FU stocks always seem to lose any short lived gains. DANGIT!

  14. /CL – Spiked up.  Turmoil in Saudi Arabia being cited.

  15. Biodiesal/VNQ

    VNQ nicely tracking TLT, and I am short TLT at this level.  Interestingly, VNQ strong today but usually when VNQ is going up its volume is strong, but not on this run, so probably  a good short.

  16. /NK ~~The Nikkei blasted off early in the Japanese equities session, breaking out above 1996 highs. Then it reversed on no clear catalyst and fell about 4% in a straight line.

  17. ROKU now up 44%.

    Left quite a bit on the table.

  18. QUIK – Up 20% today following conference call with some positive guidance.

  19. Oil pulling off $57.50 again, very nice on /CL!  

    Not a good weekend hold as the King may step down this weekend and maybe more arrests as the Prince consolidates power.  This is no different than a new CEO being appointed and cleaning house.  The Saudis were getting killed on money and the family freaked and they appointed the guy who had a plan to raise $2Tn by taking Aramco public and now they are willing to do whatever it takes to get to that $2Tn goal – even if some of the family need to be sacrificed…

    /NKD/Albo – Well the Dollar did fall this evening, that's one catalyst but, on the whole, a blow-off top I think.  

    22,800 is the 20% move off 19,000 – that's the line to watch on /NKD and you can see it was behaving until the sudden move up, which was probably there to shake off the shorts.  3,800 point rally calls for a whopping 760-point correction (weak) and call that 22,000 even and then 21,000ish for a strong retrace.  

    Of course 22,800 + a 380 overshoot (10% of the rally) is 23,200 and 23,580 would be the full overshoot on a 20% move (20% of the move more).  Didn't quite get there but failure to take back 22,800 means very likely to see at least a pullback to 22,000.  Dollar weakness would lock that in.  

    Roku(ROKU) shares skyrocket as sales crush Wall Street estimates

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    Satellite Images Reveal Saudis May Be Lying How Much Oil They Have In Storage

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    Junk Bonds Dump To 3-Month Lows Amid Longest Curve Flattening Streak In 6 Years

    Carlos Ghosn Says Car Ownership Is Here to Stay. (videoPersonal car ownership isn’t going anywhere, regardless of the rise of Uber Technologies Inc. and ride-sharing, according to the man who may oversee more auto sales than anyone else this year. Global vehicle sales will continue to expand, with alternative forms of mobility making only a marginal impact or actually boosting demand, said Carlos Ghosn, the chairman of the alliance between Renault SA, Nissan Motor Co. and Mitsubishi Motors Corp. “A lot of people think this is substitution. It’s not — it’s addition,” Ghosn said in an interview Wednesday at Bloomberg’s The Year Ahead conference in New York. “The traditional business of building cars and selling cars and owning cars is going to continue.”

    Bipartisan Dodd-Frank Rollback Could Benefit Banks Big and SmallThe top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee is getting closer to striking a deal on a bipartisan bill to ease financial rules that could have wins for banks both big and small. Senator Mike Crapo of Idaho, the panel’s chairman, is in talks with moderate Democrats including Jon Tester of Montana, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Donnelly of Indiana on a plan for rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank Act. A deal could come as soon as this week, Tester has said.

    China Factory Prices Surge Again as Pollution Drive Curbs OutputThe producer price index rose 6.9 percent in October from a year earlier, versus a projected 6.6 percent rise in a Bloomberg survey and matching September’s pace. The consumer price index climbed 1.9percent, the statistics bureau said Thursday, exceeding the median forecast of 1.8 percent.

  20. Phil/BBBY

    Can you revisit the trade in LTP? Have you done a calendar spread and the long call is 2019 and the short call is 2020?


  21. The trade no one saw coming

    • It's now one year since Election Day, with the past 12 months seeing one of the most profound and prolonged declines in market volatility on record.
    • Continuous closing highs have also propelled U.S. equity indexes over the period, with the Dow +32%, S&P 500 +24% and Nasdaq +35%.
    • With stocks eking out more gains yesterday to push all three benchmarks into record territory, what lays in store for the future?

    Stocks solidly lower in early trading; tech stocks tumble

    • Stocks start broadly lower, with the Dow opening more than 100 points down, after the three major indexes finished yesterday's session at record highs; S&P and Dow -0.6%, Nasdaq -1%.
    • Most of the 11 S&P sectors are trading in the red, with techs (-0.8%) among the worst performers as chipmakers shows particular weakness, sending the PHLX Semiconductor Index -1.6%.
    • "We expect short-term momentum to deteriorate temporarily, triggered by technology stocks as they (finally) react to overbought extremes," says Katie Stockton, chief technical strategist at BTIG.
    • Other observers say investors appear to have grown more pessimistic over the prospects for passage of a tax reduction bill.
    • European markets post sharp losses, with Germany's DAX -1.3%, France's CAC -1.1% and U.K.'s FTSE -0.6%; in Asia, Japan's Nikkei closed -0.2% while China's Shanghai Composite finished +0.4%.
    • In earnings news, Kohl's -4.1% after missing earnings estimates, while Macy's opens +5.7%after reporting better than expected earnings and reaffirming 2018 guidance.
    • U.S. Treasury prices are lower despite the negative open for equities; the yield on the benchmark 10-year note is up by a basis point at 2.34%.
    • U.S. crude oil +0.1% at $56.89/bbl.

    EIA Natural Gas Inventory

    • China’s top oil company Sinopec (NYSE:SNP) will team up with one of China's biggest banks and the country's sovereign wealth fund to help develop the $43B Alaska LNG project.
    • The deal is one of several announced in conjunction with Pres. Trump's visit to China this week.
    • The group will work over the next year with Alaska's state government to iron out the details of their involvement in the natural gas project.
    • If the project is completed, an 800-mile pipeline would bring natural gas from the North Slope to a port in Nikiski, on the Kenai Peninsula, where the gas would be chilled into liquefied natural gas before being shipped in tankers to China and other Asian destinations.
    • A final investment decision for Alaska LNG is expected in early 2019, with construction starting in the same year and the first cargo expected around 2024-25.
    • Cameco's (NYSE:CCJ) pain could mean gains for other uranium companies after the company's suspension of some of its operations will cut global supplies of the commodity, which analysts say could be biggest catalyst for the sector since the 2011 Fukushima disaster.
    • CCJ said yesterday it would suspend production at its McArthur River mining and Key Lake milling operations by the end of January, which could increase the uranium supply/demand balance and induce a sustainable and significant raise in uranium prices.
    • McArthur River is the world’s largest uranium mine, and BMO analysts say its suspension should remove ~17M lb U3O8 from the market next year (12M lb attributable to CCJ), representing 12% of primary mine supply and 9% of estimated demand.
    • CCJ -7.3% premarket, but uranium peers are sharply higher: UEC +20.9%WWR +14.2%URG+11.3%DNN +6.6%,
    • ETFs: URANLR
    • Source: Bloomberg First Word
    • Boeing (NYSE:BA) said it signed an agreement for 300 airplanes during a ceremony in Beijing valued at more than $37B at list prices.
    • The deal was part of the U.S. trade mission to China, and was signed by Kevin McAllister, Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO, in the presence of President Trump and China President Xi Jinping.
    • Previously: Trump stirs up U.S.-China trade (Nov. 09 2017)
    • Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) Model 3 exceeded expectations, says RBC's Joseph Spak, after his team hosted a drive event for the vehicle. The car, he says, feels like a smaller version of the Model S, but with a fresh view. He's guessing the current Model 3 production rate is about 700 per week, with that rising to 1.2K-2K by year-end. Spak rates the stock at Sector Perform.
    • "Better than advertised" is how Nomura's Romit Shah describes his test drive with the Model 3. It reinforces his view that the addressable market for the Model 3 is larger than that of the BMW 3-series, Mercedes C class, and Audi A4. He rates the stock a Buy with $500 price target.
    • Source: Bloomberg
    • In other news, Elektrek is reporting the building of 180 Model 3s in October, bringing total production to just over 440 units.
    • Shares are down 0.6% premarket to $302.50.
    • Building a new pilot facility in Switzerland, Audi (OTCPK:AUDVF) is expanding production of what it says is a nearly carbon neutral kind of gasoline and diesel made from entirely renewable sources.
    • The process uses electrolysis to split water into hydrogen and oxygen, with the former being combined with carbon dioxide to make hydrocarbons.
    • The key will be if e-fuels could be produce at a higher, more cost-effective rate.

    Alibaba's Singles' Day sales event coming Saturday, could top $24B in sales

    • Alibaba’s (NYSE:BABA) Singles’ Day event happens this Saturday. Last year, the event brought in $17.8B. Citigroup estimates 2017 sales of $24B.
    • Alibaba originally marketed the event as a way for single people to treat themselves, thus the Single’s Day name. 
    • Over 60K global brands will participate including Lululemon, Gap, Mac, and Macy’s.
    • This year marks the first time the sales event, which started in 2009, will include physical retailers with brands promoting the sale inside existing stores or temporary storefronts. 
    • Alibaba shares are down 0.73%.  
    • Previously: NetEase to buy $11B in overseas goods in e-commerce push (Nov. 6)

  22. Phil / INFN

    I have a small position @ 10.15 and they just got hammered for guiding lower + restructuring plan.  I feel they are in a shorter term down cycle with CAPEX from CentryLink / Level3 down, but longer term think they are strong in both DCI (Data Center Interconnect) and SubSea.  I'd appreciate your's and anyone else's perspective(s). Looking to add / bail if there is good / bad sentiment on the board.  

    Here's what looks to be today's torpedo.

    Finally, regarding our outlook, while we do not typically provide guidance beyond one quarter, given the uncertainty around market dynamics and pace at which our business will recover from customer consolidation, I wanted to provide some perspective on how we're anticipating our revenue in 2018. With our addressable markets expected to grow only low to mid-single digits, I feel good about outgrowing the market, but I'm less confident in our ability to grow 10% or greater for the full year 2018. That being said, with the actions we are taking to lower our cost structure, I believe even at a lower revenue level, Wall Street's current expectation that we get back to profitability during the second half of 2018 remains reasonable.



     The Howard Hughes Corporation HHC

     What are thoughts on this company



  24. BBBY/Pat – In the LTP, I have all 2020s:

    Long Call 2020 17-JAN 20.00 CALL [BBBY @ $20.23 $0.74] 20 10/24/2017 (799) $9,900 $4.95 $-0.83 n/a     $4.13 - $-1,650 -16.7% $8,250
    Short Call 2020 17-JAN 27.50 CALL [BBBY @ $20.23 $0.74] -20 10/20/2017 (799) $-5,400 $2.70 $-0.72     $1.99 - $1,430 26.5% $-3,970
    Short Put 2020 17-JAN 25.00 PUT [BBBY @ $20.23 $0.74] -15 10/20/2017 (799) $-10,500 $7.00 $0.83     $7.83 - $-1,238 -11.8% $-11,738

    We haven't sold any short-term calls against it and next earnings are way out at 12/20.  We're generally just waiting and seeing on them.  

    I think I said 2019 when talking about the roll but meant 2020 (which was the correct pricing I used).

    INFN/Jeddah – Well my comment from the LTP was:

    2017/10/20 at 12:19 pm

    INFN – Earnings are 11/8, why risk it?  Let's cash these.

    And previously:

    Submitted on 2017/08/15 at 3:35 pm

    INFN/Scott – We sold the Jan $8 puts for $1.68 in the LTP at the beginning of the month. They are 0.70 now and I'm super-glad we didn't commit more as they keep dropping so, no thanks, I think we'll just ride these out for now.  

    Submitted on 2016/11/22 at 3:50 pm

    INFN/BDC – They don't make any money but I like them down here. 

    INFN/Jeddah – That's right, we wanted to sell 30 of the 2018 INFN $8 puts for $1.75 ($5,250) in the LTP.  

    We talked about this last week, they are a cyclical business in a down cycle so let the short-term traders sell you their shares.  Patient investors make most of their money from trades like this.  

    So it was never a stock I was in love with, just something I was willing to own for net $6.25 but nothing over the past year made me like them enough to risk earnings.  You came in way higher and certainly overpaid.  If your plan is just to ride it out and HOPE (not a valid investing strategy) to get back to $10, which is now up 50% – I don't endorse it.  As the CEO notes – it's certainly not going to happen next year.  They are not likely to go BK though, and you can sell 2020 $7 puts for $2 to net in at $5 so, if you take the loss on your stock at $6.66 (appropriate) you are down $3.33 and you can sell 1.5x of the $7 puts and have a much lower breakeven point and the worst case is you own 50% more stock another 0.84 per current share.  If you don't like them enough to do that – just get out and move along.  

    HHC/QC – I think the founder died or something…  cheeky  Actually, they are a derivative of an oil company founded by Howard's father 100 years ago.  There is still a Hughes Corporation, but they are part of EchoStar (SATS) now.  This Hughes was under GGP and then spun out.

    Now they develop housing communities and it's a good business but profits are erratic, to say the least.  From 2012 to 2014 they lost about $5/share while growing revenues 50% and they came back in 2015 to reap $2.40 and then $2.80 in 2016 and just $1.61 last year and lucky to make $1 this year so I'm certainly concerned they are cycling back to negative soon.  

    That wouldn't scare me off but last year they made $259M and last 4 Qs were $21.5, $64.7, $14.2 and $12.9 so the trend is still downhill fast and the company is valued at $5.2Bn so the P/E is ridiculous given the current earnings.  Back at $80, I'd be interested but not at all at $120 – especially with crappy options to sell (only out to April, thinly traded, low premium).  

  25. Phil?CL

    So not sure I understood your prior comment; more Saudi shakeup over the weekend should cause oil to rise, correct?

  26. INFN – Thx Phil .. sure wish I didn't miss your INFN – Earnings are 11/8, why risk it?  Let's cash these.

  27. AAXN,  no downgrades so far and holding its own today after the earnings drop.  Sell some premium?

  28. Phil,

    Do you anticipate downward pressure on /CL as it nears expiration?

  29. M/Phil -  You may find this interesting.  Generally agree with the comments, they are very late getting into the off-price game.  Also, agree with you that this is a real estate play but pricing will face headwinds as rates rise.

  30. M   the issue that bothers me is the declining yearly revenue

  31. SEDG – a lot of companies with ridiculous pricing. take this Israel solar inverter company… no business even being public, imho. nothing particularly special or 'moat' for inverters. its competitors will be subsidiaries and minor divisions of larger companies. people will buy anything!

  32. blocknet $0.05 to $30 just this year. The ol' 60,000% gainer…

  33. Big whoops, sold another PCLN Apr 1300 put for $15.50.

  34. KR – easy stop to chose: go long any way you want, and EXIT if stock closes below $20.

  35. choose..

  36. Phil/Tai/Stock/M-Backstage is much better than the off price offerings from Saks or Nordstroms.  The Backstage stores were formerly full-fledged Macy's stores so they retain that set up, feel and organization.  Many of the other off-price outlets are a mess of merchandise where it is impossible to find anything.  So far, Backstage is offering first run merchandise whereas many of the other off-price outlets are offering seconds (see the fine print on the websites).  The same store sales and revenue declines are troubling though.  Is there an impact from online sales?  I've seen that there are better discounts online than in stores so perhaps that pulls some sales away (online sales are not broken out, but I've seen some estimates that they are expected to grow to $5B).  They have had a growing online presence and appear to be adapting, albeit slowly, to the new paradigm.  Clearly, they are suffering from the lack of growth in wages for the general population and that premise is supported by the growth in off-price and value outlets over the post downturn period.  The deal with Brookfield to examine the real estate and the pledge to direct free cash flow to debt reduction in conjunction with the cost cutting should help (especially with the probability of interest rates creeping up).  Wage growth likely won't come soon enough to help them, but when it does, how will that impact the landscape and their sales?  I won't get into the other positive Phil mentioned like the credit cards or other real estate.

    Caveat, I'm not a shopaholic.  These are just some things noticed through my own observations, speaking with others and perusing various discussion boards and news outlets.

  37. I am flat for the day, which makes me a badass, but I'd like to find a something to buy, preferably sosme QQQ momo stock that is down big for no reason.  Any ideas?

  38. Actually, let me clarify.  I am up here, but down in the IRA; however, I am starting to put to use the strategies I have learned here in the IRA.  I am particularly fond of the kind of trade Phil set up for me with BGS.  Buy the stock, then sell the put and call slightly below.  Lock in a nice profit if it sits still or goes down a little, and get a nice discount if it goes down a lot.

  39. Albo, I saw that lone PCLN put trade and was wondering who in our group did that  :)   

  40. Stockbern – Did you mean to say, who in our group was that foolish ? 8-)

  41. I'm thinking that's some short covering with M.  I went from short to neutral yesterday and expect some pullback to get longer.  We'll see.

  42. phil/CMG…sure would be nice if it went up a some.  i have 2019 $350 put which is tying up $15K margin per contract in my fidelity trading account.  can't seem to find out when 2020 options come out.

  43. Baron – Sold 1/2 of the CTL I bought in the aftermarket, up $1.80.

    Stock catching some bids.

  44. Lunar CMG I am in the same boat and do not feel good about this stock I do not think the 2020 will help very much.

  45. Albo/CTL

    Did better than me.  I sold at high last night figuring I would get a chance later, which I would have if the market hadn't been so nuts. (Wasn't paying attention.) And I wasn't really worried cause my puts and calls get me in at $14.80 anyway, so didn't need more.  But its being bought today it looks like.  More BS to shake us out.  Nice trade, congrats.

  46. Im heading to NYC with my parents and siblings for 3-4 days in early December, been a couple times before but would love any suggestions / recommendation since i know Phil and others here have spent significant time there!

    We're staying at the Gramercy Park hotel, plan is to do some eating, shopping and maybe see a show. 

    I've seen Avenue Q (and loved it) others in my fam have seen Hamilton and Book of mormon which would have been my other choices, any shows other than these that people would highly recommend? preferably something funny.

    Also any restaurants in the general vicinity that youd recommend? Will prob grab taim falafel for a quick lunch, tompkins square bagels, maybe russ and daughters. But in terms of some nicer dinner spots? Gramercy tavern? Beatrice inn? Sugarfish? wanted to try carbone but looks like its near impossible to get a reservation even this far out.

    Any insights would be much appreciated! Thanks

  47. Thanks, but still underwater.

  48. yodi, i am looking to roll each 350 to 2x at a lower strike.  right now i can sell 2x 280 or 290's for about an even roll.  i am hoping that if the 2020's come out…i can go to $250 or $260s.  thx.

  49. Jabob – M ! ! !

  50. Oil/Baron – Yes, so I wouldn't go short over the weekend but playing for quick rejections at $57.50 is fun and profitable!  

    INFN/Jeddah – It's not about missing it, it's about hopefully learning the lessons so next time you have a bad feeling about something into earnings, you don't take an unnecessary risk.  Other lesson there is don't buy things that are already up 25% or, if you bought it back in the Spring, then the lesson was don't be a greedy bastard after you got 20% gains quickly or, in the very least, set stops on your winnings. 

    I don't mind taking a loss – as long as I've learned something valuable (true in poker as well).  

    AAXN/Stock – I'm not looking to make changes until 2020s come out.  As a new trade, I'd go:

    • Sell 10 AAXN 2019 $20 puts for $2.85 ($2,850) 
    • Buy 15 AAXN 2019 $18 calls for $5.80 ($8,700) 
    • Sell 15 AAXN 2019 $25 calls for $2.60 ($3,900) 

    That's net $1,950 on the $10,500 spread so potential $8,550 (438%) upside at $25 in just over a year.  It might go lower so plan on rolling to 1.5x the 2020 $15 puts and 20 of the 2020 $15/25 spreads but that would be nice if we can get it. 

    /CL/Japar – Well there's 424,000 open contracts that probably expire on the 21st but maybe the 20th (depends if they count Friday as a holiday after Thanksgiving) so at least 8, maybe 9 days left means close to 50,000/day to roll and the total is about 1.2Bn barrels, which is going to have a reckoning one day but maybe not into a holiday (which lets out Nov and Dec rollovers).  So no clear bet this time of year – tempting though it may be…

    Click for
    Current Session Prior Day Opt's
    Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
    Dec'17 56.85 57.50 56.69 57.22 13:40
    Nov 09


    0.41 525527 56.81 424295 Call Put
    Jan'18 57.07 57.73 56.92 57.44 13:40
    Nov 09


    0.39 150493 57.05 452318 Call Put
    Feb'18 57.25 57.89 57.11 57.61 13:40
    Nov 09


    0.39 46699 57.22 168497 Call Put
    Mar'18 57.37 57.97 57.21 57.70 13:40
    Nov 09


    0.38 46781 57.32 243636 Call Put
    Apr'18 57.37 57.95 57.28 57.69 13:40
    Nov 09


    0.36 26005 57.33 120996 Call Put
    May'18 57.25 57.83 57.19 57.61 13:40
    Nov 09


    0.37 18412 57.24 75405 Call Put
    Jun'18 57.11 57.63 56.96 57.40 13:40
    Nov 09


    0.35 38196 57.05 229434 Call Put

    M/Taihu – That's what I hate about analysts.  They essentially force companies to get on the bandwagon and do whatever the rest of the sector is doing or the analysts don't understand and start hating on them.  The whole AMZN thing is hype, AMZN's retail sales were $77Bn in 2015 and $91BN last year so up $14Bn is 20% but that's $14Bn out of $3.5 TRILLION in US Retail Sales or 0.4% – and AMZN's number is Global!  

    Though it's trending down, it's very slow and that kind of degradation is fixed by closing stores (demographics, more than AMZN is hurting them) and it doesn't mean it's a crisis, many stores expand and contract successfully – the danger is in not recognizing a changing market and thinking you can fix things with more ads and sales.

    I like them because they can be fixed by tweaking (like SKX and NKE when they were down).   When you have a good brand, you can fix things.  

    SEDG/Scott – There's lots of those.  Most of their good news comes off Business Wire, which is paid PR.  

    Speaking of M, flying today.  I wonder if that's because of the Top Trade Alert?

    It's funny because all the data was right in people's faces this morning and the stock was barely moving.  

    The Top Trade Alert went out at 10:04, followed by a volume spike and a huge move up.  cheeky

    Shopaholic/Seer – I'm not one either but I have teenage girls, so I see a lot of shopping!  

    For the day/Baron – What was wrong with M?  As we're bouncing back and the Dollar is holding, /NKD might bounce over 22,600 (now 22,585) and you can play that line bullish with tight stops.  

    CMG/Lunar – Long road to recovery there.  

    CMG/Yodi – Well it depends how the broker does margin.  100 at $350 is $35,000 and margin is $15,000 when it's in the money by $75.  The Jan $350 puts are $75 and they can be rolled to 1.5x the 2019 $300 puts at $54 for a credit or 1.4x about even and the net margin might be the same but PM should give you a break.  

    Of course, Lunar, if you want to save margin you might want to consider just rolling the loss to a much lower strike.  You could also consider selling 2019 $300 puts ($54) and the 2019 $350 calls ($20) as that would decrease the margin since you are hedging both sides and not too likely CMG pops $80 to hurt you (and still a huge improvement even at $375, right?

  51. Phil – Great timing on M !


  52. NYC/Crs – "Dear Evan Hansen" is a good, unknown show.  "Beautiful" is very nice too.  "Lion King" is always good and "Wicked".    Down where you are is a place called Eataly and inside Eataly is a restaurant called Manzo, which is a really nice place but must have reservations.  It's just one of those cool NY things to see too.  You can listen to live Jazz and get chocolate souffle on demand at the Knickerbocker Grill – if I were at the Gramercy, I'd be hitting that up one night!    Restaurants worth checking out are O Ya, which is my current fave but $200/person, Tao Downtown, Bouley at Home (my favorite chef), Downtown Bakery, Koi Bryant Park is also cool sushi/japanese.   Eleven Madison Park is also a real experience if you don't mind spending $300/meal but bar tastings are "only" $155 – if you can get in – possibly one of the World's best restaurants and they keep almost closing but haven't yet.   You can walk to that one.  ABC Kitchen is near you too, nice.  

    Thanks Albo – better to be lucky than good!  

  53. DJ Frontier Comm Cut to Hold From Buy by Gabelli & Co. 

  54. Thanks Phil CMG Yes selling some naked calls could compensate some what.I decided to take shorter time calls like Jan 18 and March 18 possible 315 to 320. That way You can follow closer the development of that stock.

  55. Thanks for the NYC recommendations Phil! I'll have to check some of those out. Been to Koi before, Bryant park is my parents favorite hotel to stay at while in the city. 

  56. Retailers Slash Holiday Season Hiring

  57. Bodyguard admits Russia offered to send prostitutes to Donald Trump during “Pee Pee Tape” trip

  58. GILD  is at  the 200d MA.  Buying some Jan 75 Cs for a bounce.  Risky, but will see. 

    Date Ticker Shares/Options Cost Total Profit/Loss
    16-Oct-2016 PETX 500 $7.81 $3,905  
    11-Apr-2017 BLCM 200 $12.75 $2,550  
    2-Oct-2017 PFE        
      2019 Jan 32 C BTO 2 $4.75 $950  
      2019 Jan 40 C STO 2 $0.96 $192  
    11-Oct-2017 CRMD 2000 $0.72 $1,447  
    9-Nov-2017 GILD        
      2018 Jan 75 C BTO 2 2.25 $450  

  59. Venezuela Is Teetering On Default

  60. CRS – while your in the theatre district go to Junior's for a NY Yankee – half pastrami, half corned beef piled high and a slice of cheesecake, both to die for.

  61. CMG/Yodi – They'll need a couple of good Qs to get people buying back over $300. 

    You're welcome, CRS, have fun!  

    GILD/Pharm – Pullback is a nice 2nd chance for people who missed it the first time. 

    VIX spike was fun while it lasted:

  62. Finally found Monday's Interview:


  63. Well, we got back at least half the losses so another good day for the Bulls as that wasn't much damage and dip-buyers were again rewarded.  

    50 points so far on /NKD – good for $250/contract.  

    DIS, NVDA and JWN reporting.  DIS, of course, we expect good things from.

  64. Phil,

    SRCL – analytical exercise with a view to the future. Company is dominant in medical waste industry, steadily rising sales. However, earnings have been declining along with margins. Terrible mgt team reputation, questionable acquisitions and trumpesque treatment of clients (just settled 300m class action suit).  

    At a 2 yr low, and with a nod to TA, with very low RSI (<20) and island reversal today. Thought this might be a candidate for a turnaround should future new mgt (and activist interest) attempt to correct the above.

    Your thoughts appreciated.

  65. Phil/CRS – optional in the Theatre District -  Now, I don't think they still have the vintage red velour wall paper with the big T's, and red tuck and roll pleather seats, but you can still go have a steak without reservations from noon up till 11PM at this joint, which is the LAST of its kind in NYC.

    The daily lunch special is a sirloin served with baked potato, green salad and slice of garlic bread.  Now I know it's a little expensive at $8.99, so splurge on the carmelized onions, roquefort dressing, butter, sour cream, chives, cheese and bacon bits or upgrade your cut of meat.  

    At dinner time Tad's Famous Steak Special Cut is kinda pricey at $13.79 with all the trimmings.  If you want to go hog wild, get the #6 T-bone or Porterhouse for $17.59, or the 7 oz Filet for $16.99, they have ribs and burgers too. 

    In the day, I would pass by Tad's at 4AM usually loaded with a pleasure unit in tow, hear the sizzle, smell the fat burning on the grill, stagger in and have a full steak dinner for.. drum roll please $2.50.  With desert and a beer or a fine screw top wine, if you spend $20 a head at this joint, you've gone overboard. 

    Just remember to use lots of A-1 sauce and if you need it, bring extra Poligrip. You can stop laughing now Phil, you'll get there.  Time for my meds, a steak and IV.  Out.

  66. Positive news from SGYP

             Reports Q3 (Sep) loss of $0.22 per share, $0.06 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of ($0.28).

    Demand and prescriber growth (per QuintilesIMS)

    More than 25,000 prescriptions were filled in the third quarter of 2017, up 105% over the prior quarter, with more than 37,700 prescriptions filled since launch in March.

    Over 7,000 healthcare professionals had prescribed TRULANCE, an 87% increase over the second quarter.

    Cash and cash equivalents were approximately $117.8 million at the end of the quarter.

    All activities are progressing on-track to support the FDA review of the supplemental new drug application (sNDA) for TRULANCE for the treatment of adults with IBS-C. The Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date is January 24, 2018.

    The investments we've made and the continued execution of our commercial strategy have allowed us to drive strong early customer demand, gaining TRULANCE coverage on major commercial, Medicare Part D and Medicaid plans within the first six months of launch. Our progress in market access demonstrates that payers recognize the potential value TRULANCE can offer CIC patients, which we will leverage as we move towards the anticipated expansion of the label with the IBS-C indication this coming January. With growing customer demand, improved market access and the expected expansion into IBS-C, Synergy has a significant opportunity to drive further growth and long-term value for patients, healthcare providers and our shareholders."

  67. Something Old, Something New: $250 Billion in U.S.-China Deals Don’t Add Up

  68. Senate GOP proposes to delay major corporate tax cut a year

  69. Trump’s Crazy Choices for the Courts

  70. Five ways it seems Russia colluded with Trump

  71. Russia Twitter trolls deflected bad news about Donald Trump

  72. Trump and Xi to set out competing trade visions at APEC

  73. AP FACT CHECK: China-US business deals are largely gloss