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Triple Toppy Tuesday – Nasdaq Finally Finds a Level it can’t Break Over


Who'd have thought THAT was going to be where the Nasdaq finally had enough?  Actually, the Nasdaq (QQQ) did hit 6,350 on Nov 8th but, before that and since that, it's been getting stuck at 6,325.  6,345 would make more sense, as that's our 17.5% line on the Big Chart off our base of 5,400 we consolidated at last Spring. 

The initial run topped out at 5,800, which was up 7.5%, so another 10% run since then with a pause at 6,000 makes 6,300 the 5% Rule™ and watch that line because, below that, there's really no suport until 6,000.

Apple (AAPL) of course often distorts moves in the Nasdaq as that one stock is over 15% of the index and AAPL has ramped up 10% in two weeks which, by itself, adds 1.5% (94.5 points) to the Nasdaq.  So, without AAPL's strong support, the Nasdaq would already be on the way down and, of course, what Apple giveth, Apple can taketh away – so watch out for any negative signs on that stock.

AAPL busted out of its channel and, deservedly so, as they made more money than the entire Automotive Industry combined.  Or Airlines or Retail, for that matter.  Apple may be part of the Retail Sector but they are nothing like a retailer with their 35% sales margins, constant crowds and absolutely no discounting.  Make your own high-quality stuff, offer great service and people will come is something 1,000 other retailers can't seem to figure out.  

Something traders can's seem to figure out is how easy it is to make money playing Apple bullishly.  Apple is the biggest position in our Options Opportunity Portfolio and our trade will pay us $180,000 if AAPL is over $170 next January, so we're well ahead of schedule.  What's the current price?  $49,350.  

At the moment, we're "in trouble" with our short Nov $145 calls but we can roll them along to 30 of the the Jan $155 calls at $20.40 ($61,200) and it's still only a 1/2 cover and we can kill the short 2019 $130 puts at $3.63 ($7,260) and sell 20 of the 2020 $150 puts for $13 ($26,000) so there's another $22,140 in our pockets while we wait.  Since the short calls are -$60,000 – we don't even care if AAPL dips and runs up the short puts – we're well-covered in both directions.  

Image result for apple aapl profits 2017The upside on this spread is $130,000(ish) for a 260% return on cash, not counting the $22,140 we just picked up.  There will be winning and losing sales along the way but, when you pick a good stock and the main part of the trade performs and returns $180,000 – you can deal with the little adjustments you make in between, right?  

These are not hard trades to understand.  We have dozens of them in our Long-Term Portfolio and yes, they require margin but you shouldn't be trading like this unless you have Portfolio Margin Accounts (for accounts over $100,000) and, of course, good hedges as well.  The margin isn't an issue as we keep a lot of CASH!!! in our portfolios (over 70% at the moment) and we have a good amount of Nasdaq ultra-short (SQQQ) hedges in place as well – just in case…

Speaking of the AAPL puts, you can construct a good hedge by using them to pay for an SQQQ hedge to protect yourself through the holidays.  We can use the short AAPL 2020 $150 puts to pay for the insurance with the following spread:

  • Sell 5 AAPL 2020 $150 puts for $13 ($6,500) 
  • Buy 50 SQQQ March $22 calls for $2.50 ($12,500) 
  • Sell 50 SQQQQ March $28 calls for $1.25 ($6,250) 

Here we have a net entry of a $250 credit on a spread that pays $30,000 at $28 on SQQQ.  SQQQ is a 3x Ultra-ETF so a $5.50 gain would be 24% and that would be roughly an 8-point drop in the Nasdaq to 5,800 on the /NQ Futures.  See how that number comes around again?  The only real "cost" of the spread is that you've promised to buy 500 shares of AAPL if it falls below $150, which is down 20% from here and, of course, if you don't really, Really, REALLY want to own 500 shares of AAPL at $150 – don't sell the puts!  Surprisingly, the ordinary margin on those puts is $6,138 – so a very reasonable way to hedge a portfolio.

We'll be reviewing our Member Portfolios this week with November Options expiring on Friday but, on the whole, we're very much parket in neutral into the holidays.  The indexes are back to where they were in mid-October, when I moved my kids' college funds to CASH!!! (have I mentioned how much I like CASH!!! lately) because there was no good way to hedge them. 

Our portfolios, however, can be hedged and we use trades like the one above to lock in our long gains that allow us to play from both directions.  However, the CASH!!! we hold on the sidelines does have us rooting for a pullback – because we'd love to do some bargain-shopping.  

Be careful out there.  


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  1. Wow, I am out of the country for 10 days and the US is turning to a banana republic! We now have the DOJ talking about investigating political opponents on requests from the president! And someone found of little girls running for the Senate while some on Fox defending them to the end because a pedophile is better than a Democrat. Interesting days!

  2. 3 ways that Brexit could be reversed:

    This is turning into a big disaster!

  3. GE vs. the Dow – not a pretty picture:

    Not going BK, but not the shining beacon anymore.

  4. Phil, thanks for your thoughts and ideas in regards to FTR.

  5. Phil/Denlundy/FTR

    Phil, if you have thoughts on FTR I'd certainly like to read them, so I'm assuming it was from yesterday and I missed it, which brings me to a secondary question-how do I get to old commentary, like yesterday"s?  Thanks

  6. I think I missed the FTR thoughts too>?

  7. Good Morning.

  8. If PPI was up so much, why is TLT up?  Shouldn't it be down?

  9. Also, what does anyone think of junk bond sell off?

  10. FTR. read comments from Phil’s portfolio review from this past Saturday.

  11. Thanks denlundy!

  12. Phil in ref. to your comment on AAPL, I do hold the Jan19 130/170 BCS and Have set the spread to roll over to Jan20 150/ 190 BCS looking for a credit of some what 8.50 on the roll. Not a bad return to take some money of the table. But I see you intend to hold on to the Jan 19 spread????

  13. FU GE!!!!

  14. FTR… WTF? almost 40c now.. geez

  15. Good morning! 

    Trump Abruptly Shuts Down Dogs for Wounded Warriors Program, Leaving Vets High and Dry on Veteran’s Day!

    Big Chart – There goes 1,475 on /TF, now watch 12,241 on NYSE to confirm a downtrend. 

    Interesting/StJ – I'd be shopping for a safe haven while you're there.  

    GE/StJ – It's not a real comparison as they sold off a lot of divisions to remake the company so they don't have those revenues or profits anymore and there's no reason to expect them to be back where they were 2 years ago in the near future.  Focus on Aircraft and Medical and Energy plays right into the big trends of the next 20 years  – that's the reason to own them now. 

    You're welcome Den – getting cheaper every day!  

    Old comments/Baron – Just click the Phil tab on top and those are all of my articles in dated order and then you can click on any one and read the comments.  

    PPI/Baron – Core PPI remains in-line and that's what the Fed cares about.  There was already a huge sell-off, this isn't enough to make it worse.  

    Producer Price Index

    Junk/Baron – I think I was a bit too early shorting it.  

    We were shorting in March and cashed out on the dip but then we shorted again around $37 but got tired of waiting and gave up.  This was bound to happen – I can't believe it took so long. 

    Big Wheeeee! on the indexes now!  

    AAPL/Yodi – The $130s are kind of low and so are the $150s.  I'd cash the 2019 $130s ($47) and roll to 2x of the 2020 $180 ($24)/$210 ($14) bull call spreads at $10 so you'd pocket $27.  Then you have the short 2019 $170s at $20.50 and those are good protection and you can roll 1/2 ($10 per x) to 2x the Jan $175s at $5 ($10 per x) and now you are 75% covered so tight stops on the remaining 2019 $170s, maybe at $22.50 so the most you give back is $11.25 per long and you'll easily make that up selling short calls each Q and, whenever you have an extra $2.50 per long, you can use it roll down $5 in strike on the long calls.  

  16. /KCH8 just blasted down to $128 again.  I like it there, of course.  

  17. Ah, Yellen in Europe saying p/e ratios are at the high end of their ranges.  Spooked the market.

    Wow, talk about Pivot Points being useful on TOS:

  18. How To Raise 20 Billion Dollarz

  19. Phil thank re AAPL do you not think you aiming a bit high 180/210 ??? Sky is the limit?

  20. Pollution Kills More People Than Anything Else

  21. humm…nothing from Phil from the last one year. Is it my subscription level or is it just silent today

  22. I mean last one hour…

  23. Phil – Trump Shuts Down Wounded Warrior Service Dogs – Snopes says it ain't so.

  24.  Morning Phil,

    Pivot Points being useful on TOS  — Please explain? 

    Watch List – Nice write-up!!  The discussion on GE was a good educational lesson.  Thoughts on when GE may find a bottom?  

  25. Duopoly/ journalism – I think FB and Google have now grown to around 35% of global ad revenues.  FB probably makes more in a year than NYT has made since 1850. 

  26. AAPL/Yodi – Well it's 2 years and the point is to put money in pocket now so essentially it's a free ride and EITHER the short calls expire worthless and you end up with the additional profit of the long spread free and clear or AAPL goes higher, in which case your 2x longs go in the money and you roll the short calls along (and maybe sell some puts) but then that answers the question because AAPL would be hitting the target. 

    My overall mindset is AAPL will correct at some point. the short calls will go worthless and then you can spend $5-10 per long to roll down $10-20 in strike and widen the spread to maybe $150/210 over time.  Since I expect the pullback (at least $15), why overpay for $170s or $160s now when the roll down will be cheaper so, instead, we're focused in the first round on collecting the short-call premium.  

    Only if I'm wrong and AAPL keeps going higher without ever pulling back is is a problem but then you should be 2x covered with a Rawhide strategy moving forward.  

    Nothing/Pat – Well you guys weren't asking any questions, so I was doing some reading to see what's up with these crazy swings.  Also, this is portfolio adjustment week – super amounts of work for me behind the scenes.  

    Snopes/Naybob – Hmm, it's in Newsweek too.  Surprising if they have it wrong.  They dd do an update saying:

    On Wednesday, Jimmie Cummings at Fort Belvoir told WTOP 103.5 FM that he was “tracking down information on the contract” with Warrior Canine Connection, which Yount said did not expire until 2019.

    For now, Yount said that the program still runs out of its headquarters in Boyds, Maryland, and at the Menlo Park Campus of the VA Palo Alto Health Care System in California.

    As noted by Snopes, it's "mixture" – not quite right or wrong but certainly the headline is misleading as I don't think Trump purposely did anything to shut the program – especially as he was busy in Asia at the time destroying our reputation on the World stage while sucking up to Putin.  Priorities!  

    Pivot points/Grass – Remind me at tomorrow's Webinar (1pm, EST) but it's those lines on the chart I use on Think or Swim and, as you can see, the S2 (support 2) line was a perfect place to flip long – as it often is when there's a sudden spike down like that. 

    GE/Grass – Down another 6% today is relentless but expected with the dividend being cut so severely.  We don't care because we make money selling calls on the stock too but just being in the stock for a 2.5% dividend doesn't make a lot of sense as it's going to be a long, slow road to recovery (which, on the other hand, is perfect for selling short calls).  

    Duopoly/Rexx – Well the damage is done, they should have been broken up ages ago.  Now so many papers are out of business (see news articles above) and reporters don't have jobs anymore – they've helped turn what used to be one of our great national resources (news reporting) into a joke with crippled budgets and no chance of recovery.  And who did it?  SERGEY!!!

    Image result for sergey brin russian

    I rest my case!  devil

  27. That's a very quick $1,000 from /KCH8!  Tight stops on 1 and I'll let the other ride above $129.  Not bad for taking an hour off, right?

    Out of /SI now as it topped out at $17.10 and faded. 

  28. Good call on KC Phil!

  29. CTL – I know you guys are tired of my ranting on CTL.  However, I'm currently listening to the semi-annual webcast for Southeastern Asset Management, one of LVLT's largest shareholders, and now a very large CTL shareholder. 

    They firmly believe that CTL will sustain their dividend, and still have excess cash to grow the business.  They believe the stock is worth $35-$36 ! 

    Added more stock at $14.45, some for long term and some for a swing trade   Also added to long term calls.

  30. When do we flip long on CL? 

  31. GILD almost below 70 again

  32. Short-Term Portfolio Review (STP):  $422,970 is up 323% but that's down 7.7% since our last review on 10/19.  That's mostly because I had forgotten an SCO trade we put in the OOP AND the STP and that's a big loser as oil moved badly against it and it was a November call.  Even with oil dropping another $1.25 this morning – not enough to save it.

    Otherwise, the rest of the positions are doing their job but I do want to adjust our hedges.  Keep in mind, most of these adjustments are not urgent, make sure you get a good price above all else.  

    FAS – Expensive leftovers from an old spread and it was much worse on recent bank earnings but I'm fairly sure they are toppy here and FAS tends to decay over time.  However, we need to buy more time so we'll roll them along to 40 of the short April $45 calls at $15.50, which will cost us about $4,000 but raises our strike by $8 ($24,000) so a good trade-off, though we're taking on a bit more risk going from 30 to 40 short, of course.  

    • ABX – On track. 
    • CHL – On track.
    • GOGO – On track 
    • SBUX – On track.
    • LABU – Suddenly, Biotech is out of favor again and that's great because we sold a full cover of the Dec 70 calls we though we'd be stuck with.  Since the spread was a net credit, all that has to do is expire worthless and we're good.  Let's put a stop on 5 of the short $70s at $5 – in case it bounces.  

    SCO – My bad on this one.  I didn't know we had it in the STP so we didn't adjust it and now it's too late.  I still like SCO long but our timing was off but this is a new trade at this point.  We're stuck with the 25 short Nov $35 puts, now $6 and we will roll those along to 30 short April $30 puts at $4.70 ($14,100) about even.  Then we can take 50 of the April $27 ($4.70)/$35 ($2) bull call spreads for $2.70 ($13,500) and, if all goes well, we'll get back $40,000 less the $10,000 loss we're carrying through and the $13,500 of new spending is still a $16,500 profit – despite getting badly burned in the first round.  Fingers crossed and, of course I like this as a new trade – because it is a new trade!  

    SQQQ – We got pretty aggressive and no pay-off yet.  March is still the most-likely timeframe for a sell-off but, realistically, the biggest sell-off we expect is 20% and probably just 10%, which will pop SQQQ 30% at most to $30 so we may as well roll roll the 60 short March $40 calls (last sale was 0.45 so ignore the ask price that's displayed) to 60 short June (yes, June) $30 calls at $2 ($12,000) so we'll recover some cash.  That will give us the $10,000 we need to roll the March $23 calls ($2.40) down to the March (not June) $21 calls ($3.20) and we're well-protected and SQQQ popping over $30 and paying us $90,000 is the least of our troubles re. the short June $30s.  

    TZA – This one is profitable now as the RUT has been weak (and we kept pressing our bet, as we are now doing with SQQQ).  We'll probably have to roll the short Jan $20 puts but, otherwise, I'm fine with these targets and the 2019 $20 puts are $8, so we can roll 40 of the Jan $20 puts to 30 of the 2019 $20 puts when we're ready, so that's progress regardless.

    All in all I'm happy with the hedges but we should get a bit more aggressive on short-term plays to put a little money in this portfolio.  Unfortunately, TSLA went lower today or that might have been fun but we'll find something in late earnings worth playing.

    Remember, this portfolio exists to protect the LTP – the fact that we're up $322,000 is a happy accident along the way.  In a normal market (what's that?), the STP should be down when the LTP is up.  

  33. Crypto/BDC – I think it is a good idea to track the total market cap, rather than focusing on individual coins.  That gives us a better idea of the health of the market.  It would be like judging the success of the internet by Yahoo in 1999 and concluding it was over just because they crashed out.  

    Thanks Dreamer.  

    CTL/Albo – If we weren't suffering with FTR, I'd be more interested.  

    /CL/Dreamer – I think the IEA just blew OPEC's narrative and also they have pushed and pushed and pushed and failed at $65 on Brent – that's not too impressive.  There is no Thanksgiving in Europe or Asia so no global catalyst but /RB is a good long above the $1.75 line with tight stops below!  

    Watch out for the Dollar bouncing – if the Dollar wasn't down so much, it would be worse for oil and gasoline.  

    GILD/Jabob – As I said above, Biotechs fell back out of favor.  Fickle market. 

  34. Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited given $10.00 PT by Cantor Fitzgerald. hold rating.

  35. Just an FYI for anyone with MSFT short calls.  They go Xdiv tomorrow so very likely you will be called away if your position is significantly in the money.  I had some Jan 72.5 calls that I think would have been called away so I rolled them out.

  36. Phil(Greg)/BDC/BTC

    as you advised, once I get the bitcoin I would like to immediately convert it to Greencoin to prevent any price movement effect. I guess I can still buy it on


  37. Butterfly Portfolio Update: Slow and steady wins the race.   $384,183 (up 284.2%) is up another $9,109 (9.1%) in a choppy market and that's not bad for a month's not working.  Actually, we did add the T spread as a new one – so a little work.  This is hopefully one of those months where there's nothing to do (as most non-quarters are) and we can just let earnings season play out and see where we are in December.

    I love this portfolio as it's so consistent and great for retirement accounts.  This is what "Being the House" is all about.  We just sell tons of premium and let nature take its course.  

    • AAPL – Despite being on track for a $180,000 pay-off from our $44,900 entry, we're only net $60,350 at the moment so barely budging but it's like a little piggy bank that pays off big once it's time to open it.  Not much to do but watch and wait for now but we're "on track" for a 200% gain from here so it's good for a new trade.  
    • COST – Glad we flipped bullish on this one.  Just because it's our goal to sell premium doesn't mean we ignore the channels and COST came back hard and fast in the past 30 days.  Earnings are around 12/7 and we can collect $3.75 for the short Jan $175 calls and we're well-covered so I say we sell 5 for $1,875 – just so no one can say we're not doing our job.  If COST goes up 10% ($190), we'll cash in our 2019 $160 calls (now $22.40) and pick up a 2x 2020 spread, like the $160 ($28.50)/$190 ($15) bull call spread at $13.50 so we'd spend a few bucks but have another year to sell short calls.  Good to plan ahead!  

    • CTSH – Didn't change at all on earnings so we'll just keep rolling the short calls along while we go further and further into the money.
    • DIS – It is time to adjust these as we just had earnings and our expiration time is short.  We'll sell the Jan $80 calls ($23 = $46,000) and we can let the short $90 puts expire and we can leave the 5 short Jan $100s so all we need to do is add a long spread.  Let's pick up 20 of the 2020 $90 ($21.50)/$110 ($10.50) bull call spreads at $11 ($22,000) and sell 10 of the 2020 $90 puts for $7 ($7,000) so we're pocketing $31,000 and we still have $40,000 worth of spreads to work with.

    • GIS – Another one we flipped bullish on that's paying off.  Earnings are mid-Dec but I'm not worried, let's see how they play out.  
    • IBM – Earnings disappointed a bit but that's good because we sold $3,750 worth of Jan $150 calls.  Remember, in the Butterfly Portfolio, it's not about picking winners but picking ranges around which we sell premium.  We're already in 2020 for the longs and this is on track so we'll just have to let it play out while the Jan premium expires.  

    MSFT – The short Jan $70 calls are a bit of a problem but now we've had earnings so no new catalysts.  Since we are expecting a market pullback, we'll just await and see how this plays BUT, let's take the money and run on the 20 2019 $62.50 calls at $22 ($44,000) and we can trade that in for 30 of the 2020 $75 ($14.50)/$90 ($7.50) bull call spreads at $7 ($21,000) so that's $23,000 off the table and we're 50% over-covered on the short Jan $70s, which means we can do a 1.5x roll if we have to without worrying about our coverage.  

    • PG – That one was so obvious to play long I wish we'd have doubled down.  I'm not ready to sell calls just yet – I'm fairly sure we get back over $90 though $89 is close and I'm being a bit greedy.  The Jan $90 calls are $1.44 so let's say that, for $2, we can sell 5 for $1,000.  
    • T – This is our new one so we've already sold what we need to.  
    • TGT is a bit above our Jan $57.50 short calls but earnings are tomorrow so we'll see how things go.  I think higher but we're positioned for that with the partial cover in 2019.

    • TXN – So far, only the $100 line has even slowed them down.  We sold the Jan $85 calls for $10.45 and they are $11.65 in the money so our longs are well-protected at least.  I was banking on the rejection up here – now the question is how much of one will we get?  
    • VLO – Really enjoying the high gas prices.  We're over target on our short March $72.50 calls but, hey, March…

    • WMT – This is why I think TGT is way too low.  Our short Jan $77.50 calls are buried but earnings are Thurs and we'll just have to see what happens.  
    • WYNN – Another runaway stock and we're stuck with the short Jan $130 calls but at least we sold them for $16, so not too much damage.  I think we'll wait to see if they pull back with the market and, if not – RAWHIDE!  

    Well, more work than I intended for an off month but 14 good positions poised to make us another $100,000+ over the next 12 months – nothing wrong with that!  

  38. SGYP/Albo – That sums it up nicely.  

    MSFT/Options – We have those short calls!  In the Butterfly, if we do get our 20 Jan $70s called away, I'd re-sell the March $77.50 calls for $7.50, which is net $85 so $1.40 in premium is good enough.  As it stands the short Jan $70 calls are $13.60 and that's NO premium so they almost certainly will be called away, so let's make it an official roll for our Butterfly Portfolio

     GrenCoin/Pat – Let us know how it goes. Don't chase though, your own buying can drive up the price.  

  39. Not sure what this means

    PG – That one was so obvious to play long I wish we'd have doubled down.  I'm not ready to sell calls just yet – I'm fairly sure we get back over $90 though $89 is close and I'm being a bit greedy.  The Jan $90 calls are $1.44 so let's say that, for $2, we can sell 5 for $1,000

    Put in a sell order at $2 ?

  40. PHIL — In an IRA account I am long T, F, and VZ along with short out of the money puts and calls. I am down about 15% overall. Should I maintain these positions, or ??

  41. pat_swa/ – greencoin – I would recommend to wait for a bit. I checked on my account yesterday and the wallet for the greencoin was halted "Wallet halted until further notice" so I reached to support and this was their response:

    The GRE wallet is currently disabled for maintenance. 


    Our tech support team is actively working on resolving the issue and getting it back online ASAP – sorry, we cannot give an exact ETA.


    Pending transactions will be processed once the wallet is re-enabled. 


    We apologize for any inconvenience.



  Support Team

  42. APPL/SQQQ – fwiw… I was very disappointed in 2015 with a SQQQ 'hedge' I thought would protect me if AAPL fell (as it did after earnings on 7/22/15). SQQQ did not protect, ESPECIALLY via options. On 7/22/15, AAPL was down 6%, SQQQ up 4% (AAPL options were clobbered, and SQQQ hardly moved). On 8/3/15 AAPL fell through 200ma on a good dip.. SQQQ barely budged. Again, aapl options giving another sucker punch, while SQQQ didn't cover.. At this point, out of the positions. Eventually, on 8/24/15 with AAPL down 22% from 7/21/15, SQQQ finally had a spike up 50% from 7/21/15.. but these moves were not much related and no way could be 'counted on.' And that is for the underlying. Again, options will not give you the same results. Just saying.

  43. bulls/GRE

    wow…and appreciate the heads-up


  44. Pat – np. I will let the group know when it is back online

  45. bulls & pat

    That's why I don't own any crypto.  Its like going to your bank and seeing a sign on the door that says

    "Closed for Remodeling"

  46. PG/Tangled – Yes, we're selling 5 calls for $2 but now they are $1.44 so we need to wait for them to go up.  

    IRA/Ztan – Well I think the question is why are you down and what are the positions?  They are all good stocks for the long haul but a lot of telco concentration may not be a good idea.  T, as noted above, was just added to the Butterfly Portfolio and I do like it here, F I like too but more of a dividend play and VZ not my favorite but at least they are cheap at $44.50 though, again, too much telco may not be smart.

    Wallet/Bulls – LOL, this is why crypto is a long way away from being widely accepted.  I don't go to 7-11 only to find my Dollars are currently unavailable.  

    SQQQ/Scott – Well, it depends on the length of the hedge and what kind of spread, etc.  As I'm sure you've seen, we often dismantle the hedges in stages to maximize our profits (once we feel the index has bottomed).  That's why we're left with those FAS short calls, for example.  You're saying SQQQ "eventually" jumped 50% on a 22% drop in AAPL – that's not a bad correlation overall since 66% is the best you can expect but AAPL is not the whole Nasdaq.  The move then would have been to cash SQQQ and then wait for AAPL to recover and it's a win on both ends.  Just saying…


    Sessions Recalls Adviser’s Russia Talk at Meeting

    Attorney General Jeff Sessions testified that he recalls a meeting with a Trump campaign adviser at which the adviser spoke about contacts with Russians, after testifying earlier this year he knew of no such contacts.

    Image result for jeff sessions putin

    Image result for jeff sessions putin

    I'm sure Fox will have a special on the Clintons having done something wrong instead of discussing this.  

    Venezuelan Bonds at Standstill Following Default Determination

    Venezuelan bonds, already trading at distressed levels, were at a near standstill Tuesday a day after credit-rating firm S&P Global Ratings declared the cash-strapped South American nation in default on missed interest payments.

  47. Displaying snapshot-1256.png

  48. Due to the change in categorization of high blood-pressure, I want to do a long play on NVS.  They aren't particularly cheap at $83 but I feel good about the premise that they'll get more business and have good quarters moving forward.  So for the LTP:

    • Sell 5 NVS 2020 $75 puts for $5 ($2,500) 
    • Buy 10 NVS 2020 $80 calls for $9.20 ($9,200) 
    • Sell 10 NVS 2020 $100 calls for $2.25 ($2,250) 

    So that's net $4,450 on the $20,000 spread that's $3,000 in the money to start and we'll see how it goes and probably sell some calls along the way.  This is just a small position to remind us to watch it but, if it takes off, it's still good for $15,550 (+300%) so fine either way.

  49. hello

    • Holding court at a Reuters investment summit, Jim Chanos says Elon Musk will step down as Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO by 2020 in order to focus on SpaceX (Private:SPACE). Tesla, he says, will eventually go bankrupt (no time frame given).
    • "Obviously this is not being valued as a car company, it's being valued on Musk … he's the reason people own the stock."
    • More: "If you wouldn't be short a multi-billion-dollar loss-making enterprise in a cyclical business, with a leveraged balance sheet, questionable accounting, every executive leaving, run by a CEO with a questionable relationship with the truth, what would you be short?"
    • He says he's been adding to his bets against the company all year.
    • Shares down 2.1% on the session.

  50. PatS – "once I get the bitcoin I would like to immediately convert it to Greencoin to prevent any price movement effect."

    Just like junk bonds selling off due to the Venezuelan default… The law of the jungle (arb) and nature (leverage and flows) applies, as with any currency your investment is affected by FX pairs, pricing indices and what other actors are doing viz. you have to ask yourself, how did you come in through the out door?  USD vs BTC, then BTC vs Greencoin.

  51. Whatever BTC and USD valuation does daily, based on the FLOWS or ARB involved, can have an affect on the Greencoin NAV of your holdings, viz. the crypto currency you're holding or invested in depreciating or appreciating.

    Lest you be a fool in the rain… if you convert your 1K immediately, you may cause a spike.  Observe the daily $ volume, rather than jamming it in the hole all at once, ease it in.  Timing and sizing. Out.

  52. HL diving since earnings last week.. today slipped through weekly 200ma, but finding little bit of support here at 61.8% fib retracement. probably on it's way down further. glad I got out last year at $6. Time to get in again may be coming up…

  53. Naybob/GRE

    understand and will act accordingly. Thanks!


  54. HL/Scott – That's nasty for them.  They were overpriced though, now pretty reasonable under $4 doing at least 0.20/share but erratic and scary to own.  I prefer HMY under $2 and, of course, ABX at $14.  NAK got away, no longer a bargain but at least my kids will get beach houses…

    NAK/Pat – Yeah, I was hoping they'd go back to $1 but now they are making progress so this might be it.  They actually do have options and you can sell the Nov $1.50 puts for 0.60 to push down to net $1.10 and the $1/2 spread looks like 0.45 so if you sell 50 $1.50 puts ($3,000) and buy 100 of the spreads ($4,500) you're in a $10,000 spread for $1,500 and the worst case is having 5,000 share put to you at net $1.30, which is an 0.25 discount to the current price.  


    Submitted on 2017/05/05 at 12:36 pm
    • Northern Dynasty Minerals (NAK +9.5%) surges after its Pebble Partnership unit and the EPA file a joint motion in federal court to extend the stay of proceedings by another week, pointing to the likelihood of a settlement.
    • NAK sued the EPA over regulatory actions during the Obama administration that prevented the Pebble Project from advancing to a permit application.
    • Pebble CEO Tom Collier says "a great deal of common ground has been established between the parties," and he expects to achieve a resolution by next week.
    • Been pounding the table on these guys for years!  

  55. You know what's funny – this is all still true 4 years later:

  56. Donald Trump says something that isn’t true 5.5 times a day. Every day.

  57. Zappa/Bolero – Interesting.. and apparently rare.. but only 109K views, so probably not worth your while, if the number count matters to you (just kidding BDC! :D )

     "This ditty is taken from Zappas Final Rock Band Tour 1988. The video was shown on TV in Barcelona but the soundtrack is from a separate live performance and synced together. The soundtrack used is no longer available, originally on the "Best Band" CD, but removed soon after release. It was also released as a single along with "Stairway to Heaven"……odd that it never hit the charts with a bullet…."

  58. House votes overwhelmingly to pass $700 billion defense bill

  59. AP Exclusive: US scientists try 1st gene editing in the body

  60. Target forecasts a disappointing holiday quarter

  61. Harvey Weinstein 2020: This man is presidential material