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Tempting Tuesday – Stop Buying that Dip and GET OUT!!!

Related imageGET OUT!!! 

In this year's horror hit, "Get Out" the main character gets his warning just one time, early in the film.  I don't know if it's early or late in the Stock Market Film but I did, very clearly, tell people to GET OUT!!! in yesterday morning's PSW Report and I repeated that warning live at the Nasdaq at 10:30, causing the index to drop 50 points (sorry).  There may have been other factors in play – but I'll take the credit/blame for this one.

You can see a quick video review on my logic for why the market is 20% overbought here:

 

Yesterday we discussed the Global macro reasons why the current market prices are unrealisitic and, from talking to people, I thought it could be made a bit clearer if we focus on something more obvious and simple so we're going to look at just the 30 Dow components and think about how lower taxes would effect them. 

Since we don't have 2017 figures in yet, I'm using last year but, in general, there's not too much change in earnings.  The 30 Dow components have a market cap of $6.7 TRILLION, which is about 10% of the US markets and 6.7% of the World Market Cap so a good, representative sample.   

Symbol
Name
Price
 

 

Market Cap Billiions

 

2016  Pre-Tax EBITA
2016 Taxes Percent Paid
AXP American Express Co 98.59
 
86 9.2 2.7 29.3%
AAPL Apple Inc 169.80
 
871 64.1 15.7 24.4%
BA Boeing Co 277.97
 
166 5.9 0.67 8.8%
CAT Caterpillar Inc 141.50
 
84 0.64 0.14 21.9%
CSCO Cisco Systems Inc 37.72
 
186 13.1 2.7 20.6%
CVX Chevron Corp 120.84
 
230 -1.9 -1.7 -89.5%
XOM Exxon Mobil Corp 83.57
 
354 8.4 -0.4 0.0%
GE General Electric Co 17.95
 
156 14.1 -0.5 0.0%
GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc 250.65
 
95 10.3 2.9 28.2%
HD Home Depot Inc 184.90
 
216 13.5 4.5 33.3
IBM International Business Machines Corp 156.46
 
145 12.9 0.45 3.4%
INTC Intel Corp 44.49
 
208 12.9 2.6 20.2%
JNJ Johnson & Johnson 139.01
 
373 20.5 3.3 16.1%
KO Coca-Cola Co 46.23
 
197 8.9 1.6 18%
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co 106.95
 
371 44.4 9.8 22.1%
MCD McDonald's Corp 170.65
 
136 6.9 2.2 31.9%
MMM 3M Co 239.26
 
143 7.3 2.0 27.4%
MRK Merck & Co Inc 56.22
 
153 4.7 0.7 14.9%
MSFT Microsoft Corp 81.08
 
625 23.2 2.0 8.6%
NKE Nike Inc 60.10
 
98 4.9 0.65 13.2%
PFE Pfizer Inc 36.06
 
214 8.4 1.1 13.1%
PG Procter & Gamble Co 91.41
 
231 13.7 3.1 22.6%
TRV Travelers Companies Inc 136.36
 
37 4.4 1.0 22.7%
UNH UnitedHealth Group Inc 221.42
 
214 12.9 4.8 37.2%
UTX United Technologies Corp 120.04
 
95 8.2 1.7 13.9%
VZ Verizon Communications Inc 51.72
 
210 25.4 7.4 29.1%
V Visa Inc 107.43
 
244 12.3 5.0 40.7%
WMT Wal-Mart 97.01
 
290 22.9 6.2 27.1%
DIS Walt Disney Co 110.22
 
164 14.2 4.4 31.0%
DWDP DowDuPont Inc 72.13
—
168 XX.X X.X X.X%

As you can see, we don't have figures for DWDP due to the recent merger but the other 29 components earned $406.3Bn and paid $86.25Bn in taxes, which is an effective rate of 21.2%.  So how will cutting the corporate tax rate to 20% make enough of a difference to justify the Dow's 35% rise, which added over $1.7 TRILLION in market cap to the Dow in 12 months?  Do you really think earnings went up $350Bn (1/20th) to justify it?   

The earnings growth certainly don't justify it though with an after-tax p/e of 20.9, the Dow is a huge bargain compared to the S&P 500s p/e ratio of 27.3 but that's mainly because Apple (AAPL) is such a weighty component (and such a bargain).  This is my problem with this market rally – we're up in anticipation of tax cuts being a huge benefit to these companies but only 8 of 30 companeis pay more than 25% in the first place and clearly Visa (V) and United Health (UNH) need to fire their accountants!  

You'll notice that, the bigger a company is, the less they seem to pay – that's because they generally have more opportunities to mess around with offshore shells and such to move the momey around.  In any case, whether it's from the reading of the bill or the huge disappointment that will be suffered when companies calculate their Q1 tax liabilities and they turn out NOT to be very different than Q4 (assuming a bill is passed by then) – I think we're going to see a huge let-down when the reality of the tax changes hit the expectations of investors.  

So, while there are still buyers we are GETTING OUT of all of our positions in all of our portfolios and we will start again, from scratch, in 2018, with all new portfolios on January 2nd.  

Until then – it's time to go shopping! 

 


This entry was posted on Tuesday, December 5th, 2017 at 7:50 am and is filed under Appears on main page, Immediately available to public, Uncategorized. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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  1. December 5th, 2017 at 7:58 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Phil any thoughts on ICON (Iconix brand)?


  2. December 5th, 2017 at 8:33 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Its very troubling when Phil is on the fence like this ;-)


  3. December 5th, 2017 at 8:35 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Good morning need some help on copying to our site. Like I have written something up on words and wish to copy, before it worked but something has changed. So please someone can help there TIA


  4. December 5th, 2017 at 9:00 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    ?Yodi, have you tried using the "paste from word" icon a the top of the message box?


  5. December 5th, 2017 at 9:12 am | Permalink Ignore this user


  6. December 5th, 2017 at 9:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    The next argument on Fox News will be that the president cannot obstruct justice however:

    https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/04/jeff-sessions-president-obstruct-justice-bill-clinton-278517

    Sessions isn’t alone. More than 40 current GOP members of Congress voted for the impeachment or removal of Clinton from office for obstruction of justice. They include Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell – who mounted his own passionate appeal to remove Clinton from office for obstruction of justice – Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley and Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr, who was a House member at the time.

    Won't stop them from arguing the opposite today!

    Also, they will argue that Mueller has found no evidence of collusion and is bringing charges unrelated. Of course Ken Starr never found anything on Whitewater against Clinton either but still got him on very, very unrelated issues.


  7. December 5th, 2017 at 9:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Chart of the day:

    Hopefully EV will reverse that trend!


  8. December 5th, 2017 at 9:18 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Someone else is thinking this could be the top:

    http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2017/12/04/this-could-be-the-top/

    There were at least four times this year where one could have made a compelling case that it was wise to reduce risk. But most people don’t reduce risk. They’re all in or they’re all out. And you can only do to so many times before your brain turns into actual mush. Sure, this could be the top, but it’s always good to remind yourself that every time stocks fall a little, it feels like they’re going to fall a lot, even if we know they usually don’t.


  9. December 5th, 2017 at 9:18 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Good Morning.


  10. December 5th, 2017 at 9:22 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Carbon captures and storage (CCS) could save us from global warming:

    https://qz.com/1144298/humanitys-fight-against-climate-change-is-failing-one-technology-can-change-that/

    That economic hit would hurt a lot more than deploying carbon capture at large scale today. But even that may not hurt as badly as uncontrolled climate change. The latest projections show that, as soon as 2027, the cost of rising temperatures will be $360 billion per year for the US alone. The damage to the rest of world could be four times as much.
    Prevention is better than cure. And, for our dying planet, either is better than doing nothing.


  11. December 5th, 2017 at 9:29 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Mike thanks I have found it again it is "control V" which puts it on this site.


  12. December 5th, 2017 at 9:41 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    I've had a bit of trouble posting, not getting a cursor in the comment box. Haven't complained because if I click the "paste from word" box and cancel I can then type. I'm using chrome. Just an FYI…


  13. December 5th, 2017 at 9:44 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Will DIS purchase the Death Star (FOXA)?  Could be a positive for humanity…..


  14. December 5th, 2017 at 9:50 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Phil, /SI, 16 looking good for long, would you play front month or ???    And, /NG?  Winter months coming up and so low, any thoughts on why? 

     


  15. December 5th, 2017 at 9:53 am | Permalink Ignore this user

     

    [Your comment is awaiting moderation.] ???


  16. December 5th, 2017 at 10:31 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    sparkleCOIN – could be interesting – the crypto/e-tail space is a crowded one though. I have a longer, more detailed thought on why I think this isn't the right way to go with crypto but I'll spare you guys (for now…). Anyways, 16 days until the ICO ends. ICO's aren't my thing, I just wait until it's trading and see what the market says.

    Very interesting, however, is crypto kitties. Not so much because crypto now officially has it's very own "beanie babies" every hater has been waiting for, but because it means mainstream adoption. It'll also stress test the ethereum network.

    Sometimes I'm on top of things and sometimes exactly the opposite. For example, has anyone been using the "brave" browser? Everything else is a non-starter. They are building dapps like youtube tipping directly into it. The reason I came across is the essential 3-minute-movie you need to watch right now here. Metamask is insanely powerful. you can build tokens in your web browser in minutes. This means the cryptocurrency economy (as you know from earlier, what I calk the "Knowledge Economy") is completely distributed to every individual's fingertips. 


  17. December 5th, 2017 at 10:39 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Good morning!  

    Pre-market pump already fading but still plenty of buyers for what we're dumping.  Still looking for Nas to weak bounce back to 6,325 but that was a bounce off 6,300 and they're having trouble taking that back.

    Notice everyone on TV is talking about the tax cuts and how great it will be but nobody is actually running the numbers – this is a mania that simply won't stand up to the hype in the end.  It reminds me of our first Christmas, when I was 8 as my parents bowed to the pressure to do Christmas instead of Hannukah.  We were so excited and thought it would be so great but, on Dec 25th, very early in the morning, I got out of bed and looked at the tree and found just 5 gifts with my name on it – instead of 8.  That was our last Christmas tree!  

    ICON/Torq – More underwear?  They are a good, diversified company but I'd like them a lot better if they made a profit.  At $1.70, you are buying the company for $97M and then you get to participate in the $500M of tax losses they took in 2015 and 2016 and they do seem to have turned it around this year, with $38M in profits in the first two Qs but $15M of that was from tax adjustments.  Still at less than $100M – as long as they make $10M I'm happy.  They have a LOT of balance sheet adjustments and I can't really tell yet if they are making money or just shuffling numbers.  They are also currently in non-compliance with the Nasdaq for failing to file Q3 financials so it's a stay-away for me, though interesting to watch once Q3 comes out.

    Fence/Malsg – It's actually so nice to start fresh once in a while – kind of like moving to a new place (something else on my list).

    Copying/Yodi – Not sure why that wouldn't work.  Did you try using the little Word box in the top of the comment box?  I assume you have one too.  

    Ah, Mike said that – thanks Mike. 

    Big Chart – All about the Nas at the moment but RUT most likely to confirm if it fails the 5% line at 1,512 (now 1,530).  One great use for the big chart is Dow is obviously the Downside lagger, so last week's DXD spread still the best way to go for quick protection.  

    Obstruction/StJ – That's interesting.  Too bad the GOP doesn't care if their Congresspeople are consistent in their logic.  Anything to "get" the Dems and protect themselves is pretty much all that matters.  

    All in or all out/StJ – I realize that too and that's why I'm saying ALL OUT – otherwise people won't take it seriously.  

    Control V/Yodi – Congrats – You have passed computing 101, day 1!  

    Image result for standard keyboard commands

    O brave new world, that has such wonders in't!

    Cursor/Mkucs – I have that in Chrome as well but I just click on the box and hit enter a few times and it shows up.

    DIS/1020 – But what if Fox turns DIS evil?  Maybe it's all just a plan to begin brainwashing our children?!? 

    /SI/Grass – The front month is March and I think it's too much bother not to play the front month.   Bit of a falling knife for now – I wouldn't be too quick to jump in.  /NG I definitely like here at $2.875 for /NGV8 and I will add my first two here and I just stopped out of my /CL shorts and added 2 more long /KCH8s this morning as well.  

    That was just a reflex for me, I saw /KC hit the same low it hit last week so I bought more and, if it falls below – then I stop out so my additional risk is very small.

    Moderation/Mkucs – Our spam bot filters hundreds of fake comments each day and occasionally, accidentally hits a Members comment.  Nothing personal.

    MetaMask/BDC – That's interesting stuff.  Amazing how fast this stuff is progressing.  We're on the way to micro-payments here and that has a ton of potential applications.  That's something Bob from FUNN and I were discussing down in Florida last week.  No word on that yet, they are still deciding which way they want to go.  Also – call me re. Greencoin strategy when you have time. 


  18. December 5th, 2017 at 10:48 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Phil just don't make fun of an old man I just simply forgot to press the V


  19. December 5th, 2017 at 10:49 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Still trying to glose positions but tellung you it is not that easy!!!! 60% in cash now


  20. December 5th, 2017 at 10:50 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Boy sure have finger trouble this afternoon here, must be the wine


  21. December 5th, 2017 at 10:59 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Not that easy/Yodi – That's why I'm making my emphatic call now.  It's hard enough getting these ridiculous prices now – imagine how hard it will be to close things if people start panicking.  

    Daily Show did a great Trump/FBI summary yesterday:


  22. December 5th, 2017 at 11:01 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    OK, I added 1 long /SI at $16.06.  Will add another at $16, two more at $15.97 and then my avg will be $16 on 4 and probably stop out if $15.95 doesn't hold.  


  23. December 5th, 2017 at 11:15 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  24. December 5th, 2017 at 11:15 am | Permalink Ignore this user

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  28. December 5th, 2017 at 11:15 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  29. December 5th, 2017 at 11:15 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    So how to handle that butterfly WYNN position Phil.  Just closing it now is a big loss.  Could be worse later but at current prices in a year the losing long $160 call would be a winner.


  30. December 5th, 2017 at 11:15 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  31. December 5th, 2017 at 11:15 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  32. December 5th, 2017 at 11:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  33. December 5th, 2017 at 11:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  34. December 5th, 2017 at 11:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  35. December 5th, 2017 at 11:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  36. December 5th, 2017 at 11:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  37. December 5th, 2017 at 11:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  38. December 5th, 2017 at 11:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  39. December 5th, 2017 at 11:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user
    America’s Lost Einsteins
    By: Alana Semuels


  40. December 5th, 2017 at 11:16 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  41. December 5th, 2017 at 11:17 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  42. December 5th, 2017 at 11:17 am | Permalink Ignore this user
    Republican National Convention delegate comes forward about witnessing Trump-Russia conspiracy in action
    By: Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report


  43. December 5th, 2017 at 11:28 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    I don't think they got the "stop buying the dip" memo.

    On another note, NMFC is a BDC of reasonable quality paying 9.5% consistently and now trading at 14.10.

    You can buy the shares and sell the April $12.50 call for $1.55 and sell the  $15 put for $1.50 and if it stays above 12.50 you get .55 plus .68 div in 136 days for annual return of 23.5%.  Anyone want to check my option math?


  44. December 5th, 2017 at 11:29 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    TSLA – Per usual Adam Jonas finds a way to reiterate his $379 price target with TSLA struggling to stay over $300.  I wonder if Elon has him on speed dial or he just does this on his own.  As usual if you actually get beyond the bot friendly price target picked up by the wire services it is actually describing Tesla's business as quite weak, so combine it with SpaceX.  He's very good at this CYA stock support routine.

    https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/8+Reason+Elon+Musk+Could+Merge+Tesla+%28TSLA%29+and+SpaceX+-+Morgan+Stanley/13569880.html


  45. December 5th, 2017 at 11:30 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  46. December 5th, 2017 at 11:30 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  47. December 5th, 2017 at 11:30 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  48. December 5th, 2017 at 11:30 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  49. December 5th, 2017 at 11:30 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  50. December 5th, 2017 at 11:30 am | Permalink Ignore this user

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  54. December 5th, 2017 at 11:31 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  55. December 5th, 2017 at 11:31 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    RH earnings tonight and HRB tomorrow before the open according to IB Brokers


  56. December 5th, 2017 at 11:31 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  57. December 5th, 2017 at 11:31 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  58. December 5th, 2017 at 11:31 am | Permalink Ignore this user

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  60. December 5th, 2017 at 11:31 am | Permalink Ignore this user

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  62. December 5th, 2017 at 11:31 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  63. December 5th, 2017 at 11:31 am | Permalink Ignore this user
    Want That House? You’d Better Pay in Cash
    By: Laura Kusisto and Christina Rexrode


  64. December 5th, 2017 at 11:32 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  65. December 5th, 2017 at 11:32 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  66. December 5th, 2017 at 11:45 am | Permalink Ignore this user

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  70. December 5th, 2017 at 11:45 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    "Want that house, better pay cash."  Its true.  Already recounted how houses here in top school district outside Phoenix are going quickly.  There was another bid at same time as mine (according to broker, but I believed him.)  He recommended the seller take mine because it was cash, though I did not pay full price.  Downsizing baby boomer with cash, as the article says.


  71. December 5th, 2017 at 11:45 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  72. December 5th, 2017 at 12:01 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    WYNN/Butterfly, Tangled – Well, officially we're closing it down and taking a loss.  Overall, the portfolio is up 282%, including WYNN so it's simply done.  If you wanted to stick with it, we have the following:

    So the net loss is about $35K at the moment and, if I were going to stick with it, I'd roll the 2019 $145 calls at $32.38 ($64,750) to 40 of the 2020 $160 ($34.50)/$190 ($23.50) bull call spreads at $11 ($44,000) and roll the 20 short Jan $130 calls at $30.80 ($61,600) to 20 more short 2019 $160 calls at $24.50 ($49,000) and sell 20 of the 2020 $135 puts for $20 ($40,000).

    That puts $48,150 back in your pocket and leaves you with 40 short 2019 $160 calls at $24.40 ($97,600) and 20 short 2020 $135 puts at $20 ($40,000) that offset each other, covered by 40 long 2020 $160/190 bull call spreads at $11 ($44,000) and, since you have $49,000 back in your pocket and the net of the spread was a $9,850 credit, that means you have $53,850 towards the 40 short calls PLUS $30 of protection from the spread so WYNN would have to be over $216.92 before you took a loss on this spread (but then we could adjust it again). 

    Best case is the short puts go worthless and then you collect the long $120,000 to add to the $53,850 in pocket but there's a lot of room to win in-between off this "big loss" position if you give it time. 

    Dip/Baron – It will take a while.  As a rule of thumb, dip buyers have to be burned 3 times in a row before they learn their lesson and it's been 4 years since they've had a real lesson.  

    NMFC/Baron – Interesting but financial data on them is spotty.   I think it's a good way to play them.

    TSLA/Stu – Their story is really starting to unravel.  Good test of $300 coming up again.  

    RH/Baron – Already up big but I wouldn't bet against them.

    HRB/Baron – Now there guys I love when they are cheap:

    There's not likely to be anything exciting about these earnings but you can pick up the July $24 ($4)/30 ($1.40) bull call spread for $2.60 and it pays $6 if all goes well for a $3.40 (130%) in 6 months if all goes well.  If earnings are disappointing, then you can sell puts like 2020 $20 puts, which are $2.60 now while the $25 puts are $4 – so in that range and that would more than pay for the spread and then you can invest in rolling the long calls so, either way, it's a good position.

    See, we're already finding new stuff to trade with our CASH!!!

    Cash/Baron – Lots of deals blow up in financing and the realtor wants that bird in the hand so cash buyers have huge advantages.  


  73. December 5th, 2017 at 12:09 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    I'm a real estate guy and did well when I had cash; never used financing until I got greedy, and then I got slaughtered.  Oik, oik, oik, ooowww… darkness


  74. December 5th, 2017 at 12:19 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    :P hil, yes RH is certainly too dicey to short.  Yahoo Finance shows :

    ~~Short % of Float  -   71.53%


  75. December 5th, 2017 at 12:19 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Phil – I always learn more from you managing the losing positions. The winners tend to manage themselves!

    Looking at TOS option prices, it looks like on the WYNN trade mentioned above the Jan 19, $130 calls are quoted at $41 and not $30.80 as shown in PowerOptions. Maybe the Poweroptions screen needs an update?


  76. December 5th, 2017 at 12:20 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Don't know where the smiley face came from.  Fat Fingers ?


  77. December 5th, 2017 at 12:45 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Phil/RH and HRB,

    Albo/RH

    I was just giving notice on the earnings but thanks for the input.  Not crazy about HRB because of the elimination of tax deduction, supposed simplification, etc.  Still have   short calls at $27 but got rid of everything else at even.  RH is trickier so I''ll ask.  I have several 2019 puts at appr. $40 but the $120 call got away from me when they pre-announced. (Guess I wasn't watching the deltas carefully enough.)  Anyway, could just dump the short call, or roll it up, or buy back everything at even, or let it all ride.  Big question is if they pre-announced, can they really go higher?


  78. December 5th, 2017 at 12:50 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Baron - You wouldn't think so, but when there's that big a short position, anything could happen, such as a very positive outlook for the next quarter, buyback programs, etc.  Really anything could spook the shorts and cause a squeeze.  Dicey.


  79. December 5th, 2017 at 12:55 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Baron still holding HRB in an amchair trade, You might have a point with tax simplification, But just come out of the forest where again I have chopped 42 trees, also armchairs, all which are on top of the scale, however Phil might have a point with HRB, they are on the lower part of the scale. Not sure about RH did not play them again as I lost quite some money on them but they are very high and after today they might have a good drop.


  80. December 5th, 2017 at 1:02 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Your top five picks for 2018 would form a good core for the new portfolio (CHK, CLF, HBI, TEVA, GE).   Working on opening positions based on your 11/19 post recommendations. A little patience and you can get the entry prices indicated. 


  81. December 5th, 2017 at 1:02 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Winston, I’m showing $30 on those calls. 


  82. December 5th, 2017 at 1:05 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Financing/Baron – Always a double-edged sword.  Got approved for $500M line after two years of trying with GE for a project in 2006 but, by then, I had decided the market was going to tank and we turned it in for inactivity 6 months later.  I only regret we hadn't come up with some way to keep it open into the crash – could have made a fortune buying that dip!  

    WYNN/Winston – Not usually that far off.  Oh, they are not 2019 is why, they are Jan 19th, 2018.

    RH/Baron – Well your ??? calls I would roll to the ??? and then ??? puts maybe ?????  Mostly my advice is stop being the sucker who buys the premium (that's the guy we SELL to).  

    HRB/Yodi, Baron – We already have a one-page form 1040 EZ, which 1/3 of the people file.  The "postcard" trick is nothing but a re-working of that.  HRB tends to bottom out in the fall and then peak out again in the spring and summer – when people start thinking about taxes.  With all the changes to the tax bills – I think more people will seek advice, not less.  

    Top 5/Den – Well stage one in Jan is we build our watch list and then we start buying things that are on sale – mostly by selling puts.  Then, when one of those puts goes in the money, if we still like the stock that's gotten cheaper – THEN we initiate a new position.  THAT is patience. 


  83. December 5th, 2017 at 1:11 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Albo/Yodi/RH/HBR

    So, no agreement.  Still, looking at the RH chart, I don't see a short squeeze after the pre-announce.  I see a small retrace with buying and then a cup forming back up with less buying.   So i guess the shorts are not showing concern and the longs are not pushing their luck.  The safe thing would be to drop my short call and let my puts ride out to their eventual glory, and next time, be more careful about short calls.


  84. December 5th, 2017 at 1:11 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    PHM/Phil – what a run.. do you see any negative implications for builders like these guys (and TOL, KBH, etc) with the new tax thing? Or will that be juicing the market for such 'assets?'


  85. December 5th, 2017 at 1:20 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Phil, after all these years I still don’t understand how you choose to start a position with short puts or BCS. What do you look for to decide that?


  86. December 5th, 2017 at 1:21 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    WYNN dyslexia – my bad – apologies for the confusion.


  87. December 5th, 2017 at 1:38 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Copper very weak today.  Covered some FCX with OTM Jan 2019 calls.


  88. December 5th, 2017 at 1:38 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    BOTZ – buying the dip… just a $1000 today.. may go lower, but starting.


  89. December 5th, 2017 at 1:39 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Yodi… the image of you chopping down trees, then your arm chairs… lol, I imagine you spending all winter building chairs from the trees…


  90. December 5th, 2017 at 1:39 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Phil, can you give me your thoughts on adjusting the WMT butterfly position?  Thanks.


  91. December 5th, 2017 at 1:42 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    I haven't heard anything about capital gains taxes, does anyone know if and how they are affected? 


  92. December 5th, 2017 at 1:52 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    IBB… looks like has found some support. do I dare? well.. not today.


  93. December 5th, 2017 at 1:55 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Jelutuck

    Below I did set up a play you should study. I tryed to explain it as good as possible.. Looking at the same today you could even set the BCS 30/45 but here you will pay a bit. Setting up the BCS the stock should have dropped or on the lower side of the scale, See HRB today,  positive cash flow and the difference between long call and short call in the BCS should be at least 50% meaning your delta should be below .50.

    Selling the leap put should be some what in line with the long call or lower. Here from some days ago:

    Interesting play with MU dropped from 49 to 41 approx. Here my conservative entrance to this play. Buy the Jan 20 35/45 BCS @ 4.46 x 4, sell the Jan 20 32 put for 5.05 x 3, sell the Jan 18 45 call for 1.82 x 2 and sell Jan 18 37 put for 1.09 x 1, setting it up as above you will start with a credit of 204.00 excluding commissions.

    Obviously MU would have been looked better at 35$ or even 30$ but looking at it from the positive side, you have two years of selling some good cherry calls.

    The company shows a positive cash flow and has a PE of 9.52 and no div. to talk about. So I cannot understand why anyone would buy the stock except for capital gain. Even if the stock lands up Jan 20 at 35 you should have lost no money on the spread and would have profited on two years of selling cherry calls. My BCS entries are, to begin, always small and for anyone’s budget to start.


  94. December 5th, 2017 at 1:59 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Mkustars,

    No just taking somewhat Phil's warnings a bit more serious. Not making chairs but using some trees for the winter as fire wood!!!! I trust next year we will have a better picture, possible Trump will have chocked on his Christmas meal.


  95. December 5th, 2017 at 2:07 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    I have closed the above MU play BCS 30/45 cost @ 7.28 x 4sold 4 Jan 20 puts for 5.00 and sold 1/2 Jan 18 45 call for 1.61. So as you can see to enter this play will cost you relative little to start with a 15 $ spread and many cherry calls to sell.


  96. December 5th, 2017 at 2:08 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Pharmaboy – any thoughts on VSTM? The stock looks attractive and there are many big institutions holding shares. Potential catalysts early next year. Thoughts?


  97. December 5th, 2017 at 2:12 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Albo/Yodi/RH

    Looking strong today, must be shorts covering, probably should do the same.


  98. December 5th, 2017 at 2:16 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    RH  Baron For me I might be wrong, but if I had the stock I would sell.


  99. December 5th, 2017 at 2:19 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Yodi, oh I agree. it's just the image of you physically chopping the trees, and not being satisfied you start on the furniture… gave me a smile :)


  100. December 5th, 2017 at 2:23 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Sorry Do not know how the smiles work on this site. There is no smile list on top here!


  101. December 5th, 2017 at 2:28 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    just type : and ) together


  102. December 5th, 2017 at 2:29 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Builders/Scott – Very much so.  There are winning and losing tax states and people will be migrating and it will impact housing prices.  NJ will get hit hard as a lot of people will leave our high state taxes and the state will lose a lot of Medicare funding so they will raise taxes and then homes will lose value as property taxes go higher and demand goes lower (and rates are rising anyway).  So, if you are going to buy a builder – make sure you give a lot of thought to where they do business (FL and TX should do well).

    Shorts/Jet – If I want to by HOV, for example, now $2.60 but I'm worried about the tax impact on them, I could just sell the May $3 puts for 0.65 to net in for $2.35 if they go down or make 0.65 if they go up.  Over that time, I'll get more information (2 more earnings) and then, if I'm feeling more confident, I might add a May $2 (0.80)/3 (0.25) bull call spread for net 0.55 and now I'm in for an 0.10 credit and break-even is $2.45 (lower than it is now), which is halfway between my net $1.90 call entry and the put-to price of $3.  

    The difference above is I'm looking to play a bullish earnings play on HRB but, if they blow earnings, my fallback plan is to THEN sell the puts and adjust the spread for more of a long-term trade while, on HOV, I'm simply using the put to take a discount on the current price and, in this case, being a bit aggressive by selling the $3 puts.

    WYNN/Winston – That's why I simply write 2019, 2020, etc.  the less clutter the better. 

    Copper/Albo – Slowing global demand, might be a dangerous trend.  

    That's a crazy one-day drop – a lot of futures players badly burned. 

    BOTZ/Scott – One of their top holdings is Keyence (KYCCF), one of the biggest companies Americans have never heard of with $420Bn in sales.  Their chart confuses people because they had a split but very strong company.

    WMT/Butterfly, Paolotay – You guys are going to have to get in the habit of giving me the positions once we flush the portfolios!  

    Here we're burned by the short Jan $77.50 calls but we already took profits off the table and this is our new spread, just to cover the short calls on what we thought would be a pullback.  Like WYNN, we can cash the 25 2019 $80 calls at $20 ($50,000) and roll them to 50 of the 2020 $90 ($15.30)/$110 ($6.60) bull call spread at $8.70 for $43,500 and sell 25 of the 2020 $85 puts for $6.20 ($15,500) and roll the 25 short Jan $77.50 - calls at $21.80 ($54,500) to 25 more of the short 2019 $90 calls at $12.25 ($30,625).  So that's net $1,875 for the adjustment and we already banked long profits on the spread and you have $100,000 worth of long spreads covering 50 short $90 calls so you start getting in trouble at $110 but I'd stop out 15 of the short $90s if WMT goes over $100 (apx $20,000) and another 10 if they break over $105 ($15,000) and then you would have spent $36,875 to have a $100,000 spread that's almost 100% in the money and half-covered.  

    Capital gains/Mkucs – Here's how to pay 0% Capital Gains.  Also: "Under The Trump Tax Plan Should You Become A Company"  Otherwise, as far as I know, the Cap Gains rate remains the same 20% max but only 15% if you make less than $418,400 – so defer that income!  

    IBB/Scott – Well the 200 dma is at $103 so that's what's holding them up at the moment and they are hugging that line and harshly rejected at the 50 ($107) so more likely consolidating for a move down than up.

    Hopefully we can have fun with LABU again:

    Good set-up Yodi.  yes


  103. December 5th, 2017 at 2:36 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    You, thanks for the MU trade. Looks like you are a bit bearish short term and bullish long term. Seems about right.


  104. December 5th, 2017 at 2:36 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Looking weak into the close.  


  105. December 5th, 2017 at 2:41 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Mkucstars thanks :) but no smile???


  106. December 5th, 2017 at 2:42 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    OK got it :)


  107. December 5th, 2017 at 2:45 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    GME – gotta short these guys. never liked the business and taking on debt…to pay for stock buybacks and maintain dividends? Expect the dividends will have to go down at some point here. I'll consider my trade wrong if they get back over 21.


  108. December 5th, 2017 at 2:46 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Phil thanks just try to pass some of my thoughts and plays on to the members. However I think now is the time to be patient and wait until next year.


  109. December 5th, 2017 at 2:54 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    PHIL,

    What are your open future positions? What’s your outlook on /CL price going into January 2018 and after the IPO?


  110. December 5th, 2017 at 2:59 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Next year/Yodi – Yep, It's a very good Christmas week to take off this year with Christmas Day on a Monday, so that week will be pointless (I'll be in Vegas).  Jan, of course, we have the initial fear of tax selling that month and then, of course, it's Q1 earnings and we'll have tons of opportunities to buy stuff.  

    Futures/Japar – Didn't I just say above?  Looks like 2 long /NGV8 at $2.87 and 1 long /SI at $16.065 and 4 long /KCH8 at $128.40.


  111. December 5th, 2017 at 3:07 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Bot some /YM at 24200 at noon per stick play rules, we'll see.


  112. December 5th, 2017 at 3:17 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Phil

     

    What would be an update on this hedge?

    Or use something different

    Thanks

     

    Buy 200 DXD April $8 calls for $1.30 ($26,000) 

    Sell 200 DXD April $11 calls for 0.30 ($6,000) 


  113. December 5th, 2017 at 3:35 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    sorry Phil I didn’t see that post. Thanks for reposting 


  114. December 5th, 2017 at 3:42 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Albo/Yodi/RH

    Bought back the short calls on theory of what can go wrong; not much really for them, and one of you or Phil  was right, they could announce something else, which would definitely send the shorts covering.  If it does go down, my puts will not be significantly impacted, and can then short again.  Thanks for letting me me talk this through.


  115. December 5th, 2017 at 3:46 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    WMT – Thanks for the adjustment on WMT Phil.  WMT seems really overvalued to me, with a 22+ PE.  Just because they are making moves to better compete with Amazon, doesn't mean they are going to start seeing significant growth.  I'm assuming you would agree with selling calls with a lower strike, to add more downside protection if we break below $90, and putting a stop on the $90's.  I can see one small earnings disappointment dropping this to $80 real quick.  


  116. December 5th, 2017 at 3:51 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Baron – No matter which way it goes I think you made the right move taking off he risk.  And your short puts should be safe.


  117. December 5th, 2017 at 3:51 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    SVU/Phil – never coming back? To see that weekly 200ma again seems pretty distant… then look at a monthly chart. just eternal sadness and disappointment.. :-(  


  118. December 5th, 2017 at 4:05 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    DXD/QC – Nothing wrong with it.  DXD is at $9.12 and the spread is $1.20/0.25 so 0.95 is less than $1 for the same protection.

    WMT/Palotay – Well the moves they are making is why we liked them when they were down but now it's going to be a long, expensive fight for market share.  Well yes to selling calls but don't have too many short calls or back in trouble again real fast.  

    SVU/Scott – $15 to $19 is a pretty good comback for one month.  Not sure what you expect of the poor guys!  Give them a chance to prove they are turning around. 

    Wow, you guys are not satisfied with anything, are you?  

    Finished ugly at the lows – not a good sign.  What else can we promise people to boost the markets?  Doveish Fed Head = Done that.  Lower Taxes = Done That.  Pro Business President = Got that.  Global Recovery = 3% growth baby!  Deregulation = Got that.  Drill baby drill = Drilling.  Trade Protections = Walls being built…

    I don't know, what's the next promise to add another $5Tn (5%) to Global Markets while GDP grows $2.5Tn?  


  119. December 5th, 2017 at 4:10 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    That's easy Phil, just start over again, keep repeating the oldest one.  I'm guessing economy not so strong, forget rate hikes after this one.  Should be enough to float the boat.


  120. December 5th, 2017 at 4:14 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    It´s now or never for FTR?

     

    The tables below, highlighted in a note by Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab & Co.’s chief investment strategist, contrast the performance of the S&P 500’s 11 main sectors in 2017, divided before and after Nov. 27, the day before tech stocks began their “swift reversal” from their leadership perch, through the end of last week.

     


  122. December 5th, 2017 at 4:24 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    "Wow, you guys are not satisfied with anything, are you?"

    LOL, simple…. we want it all, and we want it now! 

    You're doing awesome Phil and we appreciate you :)


  123. December 5th, 2017 at 4:28 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  124. December 5th, 2017 at 4:28 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    PLAY beats by .004, misses on revs and lowers guidance but still up 4%. Noticed DIN, DNKN and CAKE strong today.  So notwithstanding my comment yesterday about paying $50 for pancakes, we must be betting that the first thing the idly rich do when they get take reform is throw themselves an orgy of pancakes, coffee and whatever CAKE makes.


  125. December 5th, 2017 at 4:31 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Wow, John Oliver was moderating a panel Dustin Hoffman was on and he ended up getting him to discuss his sexual harassment issue.  What balls on that guy!  He wasn't being a goof, it was a serious moment – very cool.

    Good chart Advill – only Admins can post images:

    We don't want this to be Phil's Cat Video World, do we?  

    Image result for cute cat animated gif

    Holy cow, we just got 50,000 new followers!

    CAKE makes me happy at least twice a month!  


  126. December 5th, 2017 at 4:36 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Hmmm… I wonder too what the Cheesecake Factory makes…. LOL

    Have you not seen The Big Bang Theory? Decent eats, there's one at Md Live casino.


  127. December 5th, 2017 at 4:39 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Ooooh, kittens! Now that's more like it :)


  128. December 5th, 2017 at 4:42 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Yeah, we don't even eat the cheesecake but I love the Kobe Burger and Roasted Artichoke.  Kids love all sorts of food they have.  Good fun place to go if you avoid the crowded times, when they have hour waits – so it's a good business.  


  129. December 5th, 2017 at 4:44 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Here's more evidence of my BitCoin/Gold theory:


  130. December 5th, 2017 at 6:15 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Phil watched your interview earlier today. Forgot to mention: has anyone told you that you resemble Tony Soprano? :)


  131. December 5th, 2017 at 6:20 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Phil /cats/cake?-…….Bday?


  132. December 5th, 2017 at 9:15 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

  133. December 5th, 2017 at 9:15 pm | Permalink Ignore this user
    Tax Plan Crowns a Big Winner: Trump’s Industry
    By: PATRICIA COHEN and JESSE DRUCKER


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    Consumer Bureau’s New Leader Steers a Sudden Reversal
    By: JESSICA SILVER-GREENBERG and STACY COWLEY


  141. December 5th, 2017 at 9:30 pm | Permalink Ignore this user
    How low will the GOP go?
    By: Jill Filipovic


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  144. December 5th, 2017 at 9:43 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    BDC

    Thanks for the comments on sparklecoin. I’m not sure about those crypto kittens of whatever they’re called. 


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  160. December 6th, 2017 at 4:45 am | Permalink Ignore this user
    World Stocks Stumble as Selloff Continues
    By: Riva Gold and Kenan Machado


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  181. December 6th, 2017 at 5:00 am | Permalink Ignore this user
    Weinstein’s Complicity Machine
    By: The New York Times


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    Donald Trump just accidentally waived his own attorney-client privilege
    By: Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report


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  208. December 6th, 2017 at 5:30 am | Permalink Ignore this user
    Donald Trump’s motorcade stopped by wall of protesters yelling profanities at him
    By: Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report


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  211. December 6th, 2017 at 5:45 am | Permalink Ignore this user
    In the United States the 1 Percent Now Own More Wealth Than the Bottom 90 Percent for the First Time In US History
    By: News From the War Against the Middle Class: The World’s Most Accurate Economic Forecaster


  212. December 6th, 2017 at 5:45 am | Permalink Ignore this user

  213. December 6th, 2017 at 7:34 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    BDC – Crypto Kitties – Again? Two words… Pet Rocks.


  214. December 6th, 2017 at 7:55 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Phil. Is it time to accumulate some TZA?