Archive for 2017

Jesse Livermore – 21 Investing Rules That Have Stood The Test Of Time For 77 Years

By The Acquirer’s Multiple. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Before the modern day tweeter @Jesse_Livermorethere was a famous investing legend also called Jesse Livermore. The original Livermore was born in 1877 and died in 1940. Livermore was famous for making and losing several multimillion-dollar fortunes and short selling during the stock market crashes in 1907 and 1929. Livermore was an investing genius who unfortunately could not stick to his own rules – Which is why one of his rules – “The human side of every person is the greatest enemy of the average investor or speculator”, is so relevant to every investor.

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Livermore claimed that his lack of adherence to his own rules was the main reason for his losses after making his fortunes in 1907 and 1929.

The good news is that Livermore left investors with 21 investing rules which are still as relevant today as they were when they were written seventy seven years ago.

Here are Jesse Livermore’s 21 rules for investors:

By AP photo (MSN.com) [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons

1. Nothing new ever occurs in the business of speculating or investing in securities and commodities.

2. Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year.

3. Don’t trust your own opinion and back your judgment until the action of the market itself confirms your opinion.

4. Markets are never wrong – opinions often are.

5. The real money made in speculating has been in commitments showing in profit right from the start.

6. At long as a stock is acting right, and the market is right, do not be in a hurry to take profits.

7. One should never permit speculative ventures to run into investments.

8. The money lost by speculation alone…
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How America Could End Up In An Unexpected War With China

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Doug Bandow via The National Interest,

Three decades ago the People’s Republic of China was an economic backwater. Today the PRC sports the world’s second-largest economy. Shanghai most dramatically illustrates the country’s transformation. The city is filled with stylish office buildings, five-star hotels, luxury stores and foreign visitors.

Reflecting their success, the Chinese are increasingly confident as well. If not yet a great power, the PRC seems destined to eventually share global leadership with the United States. And its people know that.

Which means future U.S.-China relations could be rocky.

Ties turned confrontational under the Obama administration, which announced a “pivot” or “rebalance” to Asia. Washington officials unconvincingly claimed that the policy was not directed against Beijing. The Chinese may be many things, but they are not stupid.

Candidate Donald Trump sounded like he intended to pursue an even more truculent course, upgrading relations with Taiwan, launching a trade war, blockading Chinese possessions in the South China Sea and pressuring the PRC to “solve” the North Korea problem. But then came the bilateral summit and the president’s one-way love-fest with Chinese president Xi Jinping. All suddenly became sweet and light in Trumpland.

However, in the long-term the president’s pleasant words backed by an offer of unspecified trade concessions won’t go far in buffering relations between a unipower determined to preserve its dominance and a rising power equally determined to assert itself.

First, the Trump administration yielded Pacific economic leadership to the PRC. Beijing is likely to find new commercial opportunities, limiting Washington’s ability to do trade harm.

Second, nationalist passions are not easily cooled. The issue is not just a few obstreperous officials who don’t know their country’s proper place. The real challenge is posed by a population that believes in a much greater China.

So far North Korea has dominated discussions between the two governments. Even if cooperative efforts fail, any damage to the bilateral relationship likely will be contained. At most, application of secondary sanctions against Chinese financial institutions would lead to economic turbulence, not military confrontation.

Territorial disputes throughout the Asian-Pacific region pose a far tougher test. The Philippines’ unpredictable Rodrigo Duterte has been sparring with Beijing over Scarborough Reef. Tokyo has refused to even acknowledge a dispute over the status of the Senkaku


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Does America Need A Northern Border Wall?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Keeping track of people legally entering and leaving the United States is a formidable task. Nevertheless, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has released figures on people who overstay their visas and other legal forms of admissions. Total overstays for 2016 stood at close to 740,000 people, of which up to 630,000 were suspected to still be in the country.

Infographic: Which Foreign Citizens Overstay Their Visas Most Often? | Statista

You will find more statistics at Statista

As Statista’s Dyfed Loesche notes, Canadians and Mexicans are the biggest groups of people with non-immigrant admissions to the United States that overstayed their lawfully authorized time period. However, the DHS only counts in arrivals and departures by sea and air as stated in its report.

Unlike all other countries, the overwhelming majority of visitors from Canada or Mexico enter the United States by land. “The collection of departure information in the land environment is more difficult than in the air and sea”, the DHS writes. While many Canadians or Mexicans could fly in ore arrive by boat they might leave the U.S. across the land border.

So, there’s always a degree of uncertainty in the data.

While Canada and Mexico are the United States’ direct neighbors the figures for the rest of the countries shown in the below above probably are more accurate. This overview includes countries that are taking part in the so-called visa waiver program (VWP) and those who don’t. It only shows data for leisure and business visas, not for students.

The DHS admits that there is a level of uncertainty in how accurate these numbers are and calls them a snapshot. For the air and sea arrivals and departures the department relies on data that commercial and private carriers need to provide.

Also, the figures include suspected in-country and out-of-country overstays. This means that some of the people who initially overstayed might have already left.

All of which raises the question – does America need a northern border wall also?





Weekly Market Recap May 28, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Another winning week for the bulls, in a year full of them!  Things kicked off with a bang with a gap up Monday as the after shocks of the Comey removal – the one thing that seemed to shake this market for 24 hours – passed in the night.   Wednesday, minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting showed broad agreement on plans to begin shrinking the central bank’s balance sheet and also pointed to a likely rate increase next month, as widely expected.   Another gap up to start the day Thursday and serenity was found for the week.  Every day was up for the S&P 500 to book a weekly finished of +1.4% while the NASDAQ raced ahead +2.1%.

The minutes of the early May meeting showed that members were in agreement on a general approach to unwinding the massive balance sheet built up over the course of the asset-buying spree that was at the center of the Fed’s quantitative easing strategy.   Nearly all Fed officials said they were content with a plan to end the reinvestment of principal of maturing securities — the main approach favored to shrink the balance sheet instead of asset sales — in slow, ever-increasing stages, rather than ending the reinvestment all at once. In their discussion of interest-rate policy, most Fed officials said it would “soon” be time to raise rates again, a signal that the majority among the central bank’s policy makers remain resolute about hiking rates at their meeting next month.

On the economic front, it was reported Wednesday that existing home sales fell 2.3% in April, coming in below expectations as lean inventory constrained demand.   New home sales declined 11% but this is a volatile report month to month.  Friday, data was released that showed orders for durable goods fell to a five-month low in April, though the decline was slightly narrower than had been expected. Separately, the latest estimate on first-quarter gross domestic product was revised higher, moving to 1.2% from 0.7%.

Here is the 5 day…
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Yuan Funding Costs Spike As China Changes FX Rules

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The effects of China’s rules-change proposals around the Yuan Fix are already starting to show in the FX, money markets as one-week funding costs have exploded to the annualized equivalent of 14%

As a reminder, we reported late last week that China announced it would introduce a new “counter-cyclical factor” to reduce exchange-rate volatility while undermining efforts to increase the role of market forces. In some ways this announcement was not unexpected: recall that after a period of eerie stability, on Thursday the Yuan surged shortly after China’s downgrade by Moody’s, which prompted speculation that the central bank was directly manipulating the currency as the PBOC’s daily fixings had “materially diverged” from the prescribed formula, resulting in a gap between the reference rate and currency’s spot value.

Roughly at the same time as a similar move was taking place on Friday, Bloomberg first reported and China later confirmed that policy makers would add a “counter-cyclical factor” to the yuan’s daily fixing, a move which “would give authorities more control over the fixing and restrain the influence of market pricing.” Subsequent detailed revealed that authorities would change the daily $/CNY fixing mechanism, so that the change of the fixing from the previous day’s close would also take into account a “counter-cyclical  adjustment factor” (how this is determined is not specified though), in addition to the USD’s movement against a basket of currencies.

While the practical consequence was a surge in both the onshore and offshore Yuan to three month highs, traders and commentators were left confused by this latest intervention by Beijing into what has become China’s fulcrum security.

“The counter-cyclical adjustment factor sounds like an increased role for the fixing to be nudged away from where markets would set it,” Sean Callow of Westpac Banking Corp told Bloomberg. “The authorities’ actions give the impression that they are more worried about yuan stability than declared in their public statements.”

The reaction has been notable…

Offshore Yuan has spiked dramatically in the last few days – coinciding with apparent Fed dovishness in the minutes and PBOC rule changes…

And, as Bloomberg details, deliverable yuan funding costs have soared after the PBOC said it’s considering changing the way it calculates the yuan daily reference


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Chuck Akre on How To Find Companies with High Rates of Return

By Maj Soueidan. Originally published at ValueWalk.

I wanted to pass along an excellent video for you to watch or listen to in your spare time. It’s packed with great perspectives by Chuck Akre about how to approach stock picking strategies to find serial compounders. I love that he started his successful investment career later in life, proving that investing can be a developed skill at any point in one’s life.

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Mr. Akre’s idea is straightforward: find companies that earn high rates of return on the money that management invests in their businesses, and you will come across stocks that increase by 2x, 3x, 4x, and more, otherwise known as multi-baggers. You can get clues on this rate of return by looking at a company’s net margins (sales minus expenses = net income, net income divided by sales = net margins).

You can also search for companies that have a high return on invested capital (ROIC), a calculation I will address in another email.

Companies with high margins and/or ROICs rank high on our research hierarchy. In fact, in our last email we talked about one we believe is on the verge of hitting some key growth inflection points.

Stocks like credit card giant Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) and Red Bull competitor Monster Beverage Corporation (NMS:MNST) are great examples of companies that kept reinvesting capital at favorable returns for long periods of time. The effect is extraordinary!

Just look at the returns you could have captured with the discipline to buy and hold these stocks.

MNST Monster Chart

I know it’s easier said than done to hang on to stocks in time of increased volatility, but that does not mean we should stop looking for these opportunities, if not just to capture part of a long-term multi-bagger. We’ve uncovered over 50 of them since GeoInvesting was founded a decade ago. Consider giving Geo’s premium subscription a try and we know it will be worth your while.

Enjoy the video here

The post Chuck Akre on How To Find Companies with High Rates of Return appeared first on ValueWalk.

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Charles Munger – Still The Best Article Ever Written on Stock Picking

By The Acquirer’s Multiple. Originally published at ValueWalk.

This is still the best talk ever given on The Art of Stock Picking by Charles Munger. It’s a masterpiece in the world of value investing. The lessons that Munger provides are timeless and it’s an absolute must read for all investors.

Here is an excerpt from the article, The Art of Stock Picking by Charles Munger.

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Charlie Munger

Charlie Munger

By Nick (Charlie Munger) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Art of Stock Picking By Charlie Munger, (Warren Buffett’s partner at Berkshire Hathaway)

I’m going to play a minor trick on you today because the subject of my talk is the art of stock picking as a subdivision of the art of worldly wisdom. That enables me to start talking about worldly wisdom a much broader topic that interests me because I think all too little of it is delivered by modern educational systems, at least in an effective way.

And therefore, the talk is sort of along the lines that some behaviorist psychologists call Grandma’s rule after the wisdom of Grandma when she said that you have to eat the carrots before you get the dessert. The carrot part of this talk is about the general subject of worldly wisdom which is a pretty good way to start.

After all, the theory of modern education is that you need a general education before you specialize. And I think to some extent, before you’re going to be a great stock picker, you need some general education. So, emphasizing what I sometimes waggishly call remedial worldly wisdom, I’m going to start by waltzing you through a few basic notions. What is elementary, worldly wisdom?

Well, the first rule is that you can’t really know anything if you just remember isolated facts…
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They’re Killing Small Business: The Number Of Self-Employed Americans Is Lower Than It Was In 1990

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

After eight long, bitter years under Obama, will things go better for entrepreneurs and small businesses now that Donald Trump is in the White House?

Once upon a time, America was the best place in the world for those that wanted to work for themselves.  Our free market capitalist system created an environment in which entrepreneurs and small businesses greatly thrived, but today they are being absolutely eviscerated by the control freak bureaucrats that dominate our political system.  Year after year, leftist politicians just keep piling on more rules, more regulations, more red tape and more taxes.  As a result, the number of self-employed Americans is now lower than it was in 1990

In April 1990, 8.7 million Americans were self-employed, but today only 8.4 million Americans are self-employed.

Of course our population has grown much, much larger since that time.  In 1990, there were 249 million people living in the United States, but today there are 321 million people living in this country.

What this means is that the percentage of the population that is self-employed is way down.

In fact, one study found that the percentage of Americans that are self-employed fell by more than 20 percent between 1991 and 2010.

And if you go back even farther, the numbers are even more depressing.  It may be hard to believe, but the percentage of “new entrepreneurs and business owners” declined by a staggering 53 percent between 1977 and 2010.

Sometimes I like to watch a television show called Shark Tank, and on that show they make it seem like entrepreneurship in America is thriving.

But the exact opposite is actually the case.  In a previous article, I discussed how the number of new businesses being created in the United States has been steadily falling over the years.  According to economist Tim Kane, the number of startup jobs per one thousand Americans has been declining for several consecutive presidential administrations

  • Bush Sr.: 11.3
  • Clinton: 11.2
  • Bush Jr.: 10.8
  • Obama: 7.8

So why is this happening?

As I mentioned at


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Russia And Iran Sign Oil-For-Goods Barter Deal; Escape Petrodollar

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Iran signed an agreement with Russia under which it has broken free from the petrodollar, and will “sell”, or rather barter crude oil to Russia in exchange for products. The announcement was made by Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh, as reported by Russia’s RIA and TASS news agencies.

“The deal has been concluded. We are just waiting for the implementation from the Russian side. We have no difficulties; we signed the contract, everything is coordinated between the parties. We are waiting for Russian oil companies to send tankers,” he said, as quoted by Russian news agencies. While sanctions against Iran have been lifted, restrictions on trade in US dollars for the country’s banks remain, making it difficult to sell oil on the open market.

As reported here just over three years ago, the $20 billion agreement was initially signed in April 2014 when Iran was under Western sanctions over its nuclear program. Russian traders were to participate in the selling of Iranian oil. In exchange, Iran wanted essential goods and technology from Russia.

This is what Reuters reported in April 2014 when the deal was first announced:

Iran and Russia have made progress towards an oil-for-goods deal sources said would be worth up to $20 billion, which would enable Tehran to boost vital energy exports in defiance of Western sanctions, people familiar with the negotiations told Reuters.

In January Reuters reported Moscow and Tehran were discussing a barter deal that would see Moscow buy up to 500,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil in exchange for Russian equipment and goods.

The White House has said such a deal would raise “serious concerns” and would be inconsistent with the nuclear talks between world powers and Iran.

Little did the US know back in 2014 that less than three years later, Russia would also be running the US, courtesy of wholesale manipulation of tens of millions of Americans, whom it hacked and convinced to vote for Trump.

Sarcasm aside, when the sanctions against Tehran were lifted in 2016, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said the deal was no longer necessary. However, Novak said in March 2017 that the plan was back on the table with Russia buying 100,000 barrels per day from Iran and


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New Home Prices Are Over 50% Higher In Canada Than The US

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Kaitlin Last via BetterDwelling.com,

The price of new homes is quickly diverging in Canada and the US.

 Data from the Canadian Housing and Mortgage Corporation (CMHC) show that new homes are selling for substantially more than the same time last year.

Meanwhile south of the border, data from the US Bureau of Census show that new home prices are on the decline.

This has lead to an even wider gap between the average price of a new home in Canada and the US.

Canadian New Construction Is Higher

The price of a new home across Canada is up for the second month in a row. The average sale price in April was CA$751,881 (US$559,123). This represents an 11% increase from the same time last year, when measured in Canadian dollars. When compared in US dollars, that increase drops to a much more conservative 2.64%. Even after factoring in the loonie’s decreased buying power in Canada, new home prices still climbed.

US New Construction Is Lower

American new home builders aren’t seeing such steep climbs in sale prices. Actually, they aren’t seeing climbs at all. The average price of a new home in the US was CA$495,271 (US$368,300). This represents a 3% decline from the same time last year, when measured in US dollars. In Canadian dollars, this was a 0.49% decline from the same time last year. Both forms of measurement show declining home prices in the US, curious since their economy is in a much better state than Canada right now.

US Vs. Canadian Prices

New homes are trading at substantially higher values in Canada than the US in April. The average new home in April 2017 was 51% higher in Canada than the US. The same time last year, prices in Canada were only 36% higher. It appears in a post-crash United States, new home buyers are taking much more conservative strides. In a hasn’t-crashed-in-decades Canada, new home buyers are optimistic about future values.

The gap between new home sale prices in Canada and the US is growing substantially. The US is a country with a booming economy, almost 10 times the population of Canada, and less land mass. Somehow, new home prices in the US are dropping


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Zero Hedge

Americans' Economic Hope Has Collapsed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Which came first, the confidence or the stock market rally?

One thing is for sure, the crash in stocks in December has crushed the hope of Americans that their economic future is going to be better under President Trump.

Overall confidence dipped to 58.1 - a 4-month low, but, U.S. consumers this month were the most downbeat on the economy since November 2016, a third straight drop after expectations reached a 16-year high just three months earlier, as the partial government shutdown wears on toward a fourth week.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Triple Breakout Test In Play For S&P 500!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the rally of late about to run out of steam or is a major breakout about to take place in the S&P 500? What happens at current prices should go a long way in determining this question.

This chart looks at the equal weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) on a daily basis over the past 15-months.

The rally from the lows on Christmas Eve has RSP testing the top of a newly formed falling channel while testing the underneath side of the 2018 trading range and its falling 50-day moving average at (1).

At this time RPS is facing a triple resistance test. Wil...



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Phil's Favorites

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

 

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

Courtesy of Victoria Honeyman, University of Leeds

As the clock ticks down to March 29 2019, all of the political manoeuvring, negotiating, arguing and fighting is coming to a peak. In the two and a half years since the 2016 EU referendum, views on both sides have hardened and agreement still seems as far away as it was the day after the referendum.

With Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement disliked by all sides, and voted down by an unprecedented majority in the House of Commons, everyone is wondering what can and should be done next?

...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto-Bubble: Will Bitcoin Bottom In February Or Has It Already?

Courtesy of Michelle Jones via ValueWalk.com

The new year has been relatively good for the price of bitcoin after a spectacular collapse of the cryptocurrency bubble in 2018. It’s up notably since the middle of December and traded around the psychological level of $4,000... so is this a sign that the crypto market is about to recover?

Of course, it depends on who you ask, but one analyst discovered a pattern which might point to a bottom next month.

A year after the cryptocurrency bubble popped

CCN...



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ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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