Archive for 2017

Satoshi Secrets & Why Nearly 4 Million Bitcoins Are “Lost” Forever

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Jeff John Roberts and Nicolas Rapp via Fortune.com,

Just as gold bars are lost at sea or $100 bills can burn, bitcoins can disappear from the Internet forever.

When all 21 million bitcoins are mined by the year 2040, the actual amount available to trade or spend will be significantly lower.

According to new research from Chainalysis, a digital forensics firm that studies the bitcoin blockchain, 3.79 million bitcoins are already gone for good based on a high estimate – and 2.78 million based on a low one. Those numbers imply 17% to 23% of existing bitcoins, which are today worth around $9,000 each, are lost.

While others have speculated about the number of lost bitcoins, the Chainalysis findings are significant because they rely on a detailed empirical analysis of the blockchain, where all bitcoin transactions are recorded.

As the graphic above shows, Chainalysis’s conclusions rely on segmenting the existing bitcoin supply based on age and transaction activity. For some segments, the company used statistical sampling to determine the amount lost.

The segment “Mined Coins” reflects bitcoins mined in 2017 (which are presumed not to be lost), while “transactional” refers to those that have moved or spent in the last year—very few of which are lost. Likewise, the category of “Strategic Investors,” who have held their bitcoins for 1-2 years represent a very small share of the losses.

Here’s the data in another format, which shows how “Out of circulation” bitcoins – those mined 2-7 years ago and belonging to long-time investors known as “hodlers” – and those from the early days of bitcoin in 2009 and 2010 account for the vast majority of the lost coins:

These figures reflect bitcoins that are truly lost, and not hacked or otherwise stolen – in these cases, of course, the bitcoin is not lost since the thief has control of them.

Note the numbers above are based on the high estimate, and that the low estimate, which is based on only a 30% loss in “hodler” coins, puts the number


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Thanksgiving 2017 – David Stockman Explains Why There Is No Peace On Earth

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

After the Berlin Wall fell in November 1989 and the death of the Soviet Union was confirmed two years later when Boris Yeltsin courageously stood down the red army tanks in front of Moscow's White House, a dark era in human history came to an end.

The world had descended into what had been a 77-year global war, incepting with the mobilization of the armies of old Europe in August 1914. If you want to count bodies, 150 million were killed by all the depredations which germinated in the Great War, its foolish aftermath at Versailles, and the march of history into the world war and cold war which followed inexorably thereupon.

To wit, upwards of 8% of the human race was wiped-out during that span. The toll encompassed the madness of trench warfare during 1914-1918; the murderous regimes of Soviet and Nazi totalitarianism that rose from the ashes of the Great War and Versailles; and then the carnage of WWII and all the lesser (unnecessary) wars and invasions of the Cold War including Korea and Vietnam.

We have elaborated more fully on this proposition in "The Epochal Consequences Of Woodrow Wilson's War", but the seminal point cannot be gainsaid. The end of the cold war meant world peace was finally at hand, yet 26 years later there is still no peace because Imperial Washington confounds it.

In fact, the War Party entrenched in the nation's capital is dedicated to economic interests and ideological perversions that guarantee perpetual war; they ensure endless waste on armaments and the inestimable death and human suffering that stems from 21st century high tech warfare and the terrorist blowback it inherently generates among those upon which the War Party inflicts its violent hegemony.

In short, there was a virulent threat to peace still lurking on the Potomac after the 77-year war ended. The great general and president, Dwight Eisenhower, had called it the “military-industrial complex” in his farewell address, but that memorable phrase had been abbreviated by his speechwriters, who deleted the word “congressional” in a gesture of comity to the legislative branch.

So restore Ike’s deleted reference to the pork barrels and Sunday afternoon warriors of Capitol Hill and toss in the legions of beltway busybodies that constituted the civilian branches of the cold war armada (CIA, State, AID etc.) and the circle would have been complete. It constituted the most awesome machine of warfare and imperial hegemony since the Roman legions


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Cramer: Walmart Investors Owe CEO Doug McMillon A Big Thank You

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Cramer: Walmart Investors Owe CEO Doug McMillon A Big Thank You

It’s one thing to come up with a turnaround story for a major corporation. But actually implementing that plan and proving it to be a successful one can be very difficult. Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE: WMT) investors should consider themselves among the lucky few investors who have experienced a bona fide turnaround story.

Even the great Warren Buffett once warned investors about betting on turnaround promises.

“We react with great caution to suggestions that our poor businesses can be restored to satisfactory profitability by major capital expenditures,” Buffet said back in 1983. “The projections will be dazzling — the advocates will be sincere — but, in the end, major additional investment in a terrible industry is about as rewarding as struggling in quicksand.”

The quicksand has been replaced by rocket fuel for Walmart investors in 2017. The stock is up 40 percent year-to-date, more than doubling the return of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY). The SPDR S&P Retail (ETF) (NYSE: XRT) is down 5.5 percent this year.

CNBC’s Jim Cramer recently said Walmart investors should be thanking CEO Doug McMillon, the author of this rare turnaround story with a seemingly happy ending. Following Walmart’s recent blowout quarterly earnings, Cramer told investors how crazy it is for a large cap stock to jump nearly 11 percent in one day.

“But when you consider how much time and thought and effort McMillon put into this resurgence, all you can do is say, ‘Congratulations, Mr. McMillon, for your visionary efforts,’” Cramer said.

Walmart investors are hoping the turnaround story continues. Walmart reported 50 percent growth in online sales in the most recent quarter but earned just over 4 percent of total online sales during Cyber Weekend 2016, according to Slice Intelligence.

Related Links:

Take Advantage Of The Retail Sector’s Historical Black Friday Strength With These Stocks, ETFs 

Wage Pressures And Holiday Comps In
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4 Biggest Price Target Changes For Monday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Stifel boosted the price target for VMware, Inc. (NYSE: VMW) from $118 to $150. VMware shares closed at $124.22 on Friday.
  • Morgan Stanley raised Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) price target from $39 to $55. Micron shares closed at $49.68 on Friday.
  • Cowen increased the price target on PVH Corp (NYSE: PVH) from $145 to $150. PVH shares closed at $135.47 on Friday.
  • Morgan Stanley cut Rockwell Automation (NYSE: ROK) price target from $204 to $194. Rockwell Automation shares closed at $191.48 on Friday.

Editor’s note: A previous version of this story incorrectly stated Leerink Partners lowered the price target for Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG) from $156 to $120.

Posted-In: Price Target ChangesPrice Target Intraday Update Analyst Ratings





32 Stocks Moving In Monday’s Pre-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Gainers

  • Digital Power Corporation (NYSE: DPW) shares rose 284 percent to $3.110 in pre-market trading after jumping 30.63 percent on Friday. Digital Power will present at the 10th Annual LD Micro investor conference on December 7th.
  • Pareteum Corp (NYSE: TEUM) rose 98.5 percent to $1.8200 in pre-market trading after gaining 11.79 percent on Friday.
  • Marathon Patent Group Inc (NASDAQ: MARA) shares rose 91.6 percent to $11.40 in the pre-market trading session after surging 171.69 percent on Friday.
  • U.S. Global Investors, Inc. (NASDAQ: GROW) rose 52.6 percent to $7.49 in pre-market trading after surging 59.42 percent on Friday.
  • Seven Stars Cloud Group Inc (NASDAQ: SSC) rose 40.2 percent to $4.40 in pre-market trading after gaining 26.10 percent on Friday.
  • Micronet Enertec Technologies Inc (NASDAQ: MICT) shares rose 24.8 percent to $1.76 in pre-market trading following the announcement of a 555,556 share private placement at $0.90 per share.
  • Net Element International Inc (NASDAQ: NETE) rose 16.7 percent to $6.00 in pre-market trading after jumping 31.46 percent on Friday.
  • Mexco Energy Corporation (NYSE: MXC) rose 13.5 percent to $5.05 in pre-market trading after declining 4.51 percent on Friday.
  • LM Funding America, Inc. (NASDAQ: LMFA) shares rose 13 percent to $4.00 in pre-market trading after gaining 17.61 percent on Friday.
  • Technical Communications Corporation (NASDAQ: TCCO) rose 11.9 percent to $4.70 in pre-market trading after gaining 1.85 percent on Friday.
  • Gain Capital Holdings Inc (NYSE: GCAP) rose 11.1 percent to $9.25 in pre-market trading after climbing 13.95 percent on Friday.
  • Time Inc (NYSE: TIME) rose 10.1 percent to $18.60 in the pre-market trading session. Meredith Corporation (NYSE: MDP) announced plans to buy Time in a $1.84 billion deal.
  • RYB Education Inc – ADR (NYSE: RYB) shares rose 8.8 percent to $17.90 in pre-market trading after dipping 38.41 percent on Friday.
  • Intelsat SA (NYSE: I) rose 8.7 percent to $4.50 in pre-market trading after slipping 0.48 percent on Friday.
  • Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: CPRX) rose 8.6 percent to $3.80 in pre-market trading after the company disclosed ‘positive’ top-line results from


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5 Biggest Price Target Changes For Monday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Leerink Partners lowered the price target for Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG) from $156 to $120. Celgene shares closed at $104.50 on Friday.
  • Stifel boosted the price target for VMware, Inc. (NYSE: VMW) from $118 to $150. VMware shares closed at $124.22 on Friday.
  • Morgan Stanley raised Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) price target from $39 to $55. Micron shares closed at $49.68 on Friday.
  • Cowen increased the price target on PVH Corp (NYSE: PVH) from $145 to $150. PVH shares closed at $135.47 on Friday.
  • Morgan Stanley cut Rockwell Automation (NYSE: ROK) price target from $204 to $194. Rockwell Automation shares closed at $191.48 on Friday.

Posted-In: Price Target ChangesPrice Target Intraday Update Analyst Ratings





Chinese Liquidity Dries Up: Stocks Hit 3-Month Lows, Tumble Most Since June 2016

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

It appears The National Team is taking a well-earned break as Chinese stocks extend their losses from late last week in the biggest 3-day drop since June 2016.

Breaking below a key technical support level…

Chinese shares were already on a shaky footing after last week when investor confidence was sapped by fresh government steps to reduce financial risks, and a rout in the bond market; but three straight days down with no aggressive 'management' buying is unusual…

With the Shanghai Composite back to its lowest since August (when China's National Team – aka state-backed investor China Securities Finance Corp – announced it had boosted its stake in the entire brokerage sector)…

At the same time, short-term liquidity markets are showing serious signs of strain as 1-month HKD HIBOR spikes to its highest since Dec 2008…

And South Korean stocks plunged most in 3 months…as tech shares slumped following an analyst’s report suggesting the memory chip “super cycle” would soon fade, led lower by Samsung Electronics.

Something has changed!





Aussie Government Unleashes Counter-Terror Unit To Halt Youth Crime Storm

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The Northern Territory (abbreviated as NT) is a federal Australian territory covering 520,902 square miles with a total population size of 245,000 (8th largest in Australia).

A brand new report from the NT Police Commissioner indicates an elite unit of the Australian Federal Police called Territory Response Group (TRG) will be using military grade weapons to patrol Alice Springs and Darwin at night.

Commissioner Reece Kershaw confirms TRG’s deployment to the area and said, it’s in response to concerned communities as the youth crime wave spirals out of control.

Timing of the deployment is for the holiday season, as many local officials believe crime will surge.

Police estimate more than 50 percent of property break-ins in NT are from youths as young as 10 to 12-years old. TRG will be using military grade equipment and weapons to monitor people  kids “acting suspiciously”.

“We’ve had information around Alice Springs of kids jumping onto roofs of hotels and stealing people’s wallets and all sorts of things. TRG will be there to act as surveillance, and what we call the night-time assessment team”, Mr Kershaw said.

According to ABC Australia,

The announcement came a week to the day since a royal commission delivered its report on youth detention and child protection systems in the Northern Territory. The report published damning findings about police over-arresting and over-charging children and youth.

A recommendation to raise the age of criminal responsibility from 10 to 12 years of age has so far been accepted by the NT Government “in principle”. Legal groups have called for an immediate moratorium on child arrests, but so far the Government has not provided a timeframe on when the recommendation would come into effect.

Earlier this year, A Current Affair, an Australian TV media outlet, launched an investigative report called ‘Aboriginal Youth Crime Storm In NT’.

The mind blowing report highlights the out of control crime by youths breaking into commercial and residential properties.

TRG will be providing protection and surveillance to community members in Darwin, the capital of NT, and Alice Springs, a community in the most


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Weekly Market Recap Nov 26, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Thanksgiving week is usually great for bulls and this last week was no exception.  Gobble gobble. Most of the gain for the week was concentrated in the rally Tuesday (in the opening hour!); it was quiet otherwise.   A little post Thanksgiving pop happened Friday morning as well.  And that was your week folks.

News flow was SLOW.  Federal Reserve minutes Wednesday were a “highlight”:

The Fed viewed a “near-term” increase in interest rates as possible but central bank officials also expressed concerns about persistently low inflation, hinting that the bank may dial back its rate increases in 2018. The language from the Fed’s Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting was comparatively softer than in the September discussions, reflecting worries that tepid inflation might also be a result of “developments that could prove more persistent,” according to the Fed minutes.  The minutes also showed that several members worried that keeping interest rates too low could create a financial bubble.

Durable-goods orders fell 1.2% in October, well below the forecast of a 0.7% gain. Excluding transportation orders increased 0.4%.

Random Chinese software stock – congrats if you had the foresight to own it 6 weeks ago. 😀

This is an example of moving averages needing some time to catch up to price… and then “boom”.

I will keep coming back to this housing ETF chart because it’s been so wow.  Forget the 20 day moving average, this ETF has been riding it’s 10 day moving average for nearly 3 months now.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 .. NOT via Jill Mislinski.

It was another great week for emerging stocks – Bespoke has some data on the great year.

Let’s start off with performance and the fact that the largest stocks in the ETF have been on fire this year.  Of the twenty stocks shown, just one- China Mobile (-0.27%)- is down on the year!  Overall, the twenty stocks are up an average of 51.8% YTD with three up by triple-digits and a total of eight up by over 50%!  Keep in mind too,


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Saudi Coalition Crumbles In Yemen: Sudanese Mercenaries On Front Lines, Foreign Officers, Proxies In Revolt

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Most Americans might be forgiven for having no clue what the war in Yemen actually looks like, especially as Western media has spent at least the first two years of the conflict completely ignoring the mass atrocities taking place while white-washing the Saudi coalition's crimes. Unlike wars in Iraq, Libya, and Syria, which received near daily coverage as they were at their most intense, and in which many Americans could at least visualize the battlefield and the actors involved through endless photographs and video from on the ground, Yemen's war has largely been a faceless and nameless conflict as far as major media is concerned.

Aside from mainstream media endlessly demonstrating its collective ignorance of Middle East dynamics, it is also no secret that the oil and gas monarchies allied to the West are rarely subject to media scrutiny or criticism, something lately demonstrated on an obscene and frighteningly absurd level with Thomas Friedman's fawning and hagiographic interview with Saudi crown prince MBS published in the New York Times.

Saudi Arabia's hired help in Yemen: Sudanese fighters headed to the front lines. Image souce: al-Arabiya

But any level of meticulous review of how the Saudi coalition (which heavily involves US assistance) is executing the war in Yemen would reveal a military and strategic disaster in the making. As Middle East Eye editor-in-chief David Hearst puts it, "All in all, the first military venture to be launched by the 32-year-old Saudi prince as defense minister is a tactical and strategic shambles."  

And if current battlefield trends continue, the likely outcome will be a protracted and humiliating Saudi coalition withdrawal with the spoils divided among Houthi and Saudi allied warlords, as well as others vying for power in Yemen's tenuous political future. But what unsurprisingly unites most Yemenis at this point is shared hatred for the Saudi coalition bombs which rain down on civilian centers below. For this reason, Hearst concludes further of MBS' war: "The prince, praised in Western circles as a young reformer who will spearhead the push back against Iran, has succeeded in uniting Yemenis against him, a rare feat in a polarized world. He has indeed shot himself, repeatedly, in the foot."

So how has this


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Phil's Favorites

The guts of an Apple iPhone show exactly what Trump gets wrong about trade

 

The guts of an Apple iPhone show exactly what Trump gets wrong about trade

The components of an iPhone add up to a different cost than the phone itself. Poravute Siriphiroon/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jason Dedrick, Syracuse University; Greg Linden, University of California, Berkeley, and Kenneth L. Kraemer...



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Zero Hedge

Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Jump; Stocks Dump On Powell-Pullback, Trade-Talk

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A stunned equity market could not believe that Batman Powell and Doveboy Bullard dared to talk down the odds of a 50bps rate-cut in July...

Ugly day in China overnight after Monday's snoozefest...

Mixed bag in Europe with a weak open but France and Spain rallying into the close (still red on week)...

Ugly ...



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ValueWalk

Beyond Meat vs Impossible Burger: Comparing The Vegan Meat Burgers

 

Beyond Meat vs Impossible Burger: Comparing The Vegan Meat Burgers

Courtesy of Vikas Shukla, ValueWalk

Pexels / Pixabay

The trend of vegan food has been gathering momentum in the last few years as people become more health conscious. They have also begun to realize the environmental impact of raising meat for human consumption. According to PETA, it takes an estimated 1...



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Insider Scoop

Wedbush Steps To The Shopify Sidelines

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Shopify Inc (NYSE: SHOP) ha introduced multiple new initiatives to spur growth, but the stock's valuation is already full at current levels, according to Wedbush.

The Analyst

Wedbush's Ygal Arounian downgraded Shopify from Outperform to Neutral with a 12-month price target lifted from $270 to $305.

The Thesis

Shopif...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Wilshire 5000 Creating A Triple Top? An Important Breakout Test Is In Play!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The stock market has been on fire of late, rallying up to the edge of price resistance on several indexes. Today, we look at one of those stock market indexes: the Wilshire 5000.

The Wilshire 5000 tracks all of the stocks in the US market, so it is a broad-based index that carries significant importance when gauging the health of the overall US stock market.

Looking at the long-term “weekly” chart above, it is pretty clear that the index is at an important price juncture.

The Wilshire 5000 spent the last 25 years trading within a rising price channel (1)...



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Chart School

Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally ends

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

When valuations for the boring water company or the boring electric company is trading like your Facebook, Apple, Amazon or Netflix or Google (ie FANG) you know something is wrong.

This is when a seriously over valued market is screaming at you.

Of course the reader must understand in a world where money printing goes super nuts (Zimbabwe style) the stock market may go hyper inflationary and picking a time frame for a top is never a good idea, but we are not there yet. There is no Ben Bernanke helicopter money to the masses yet (ie MMT). 

To see when water company's (and such like) are nearing the crazy FANG like valuations a review of the Dow Jones Utility Index channel shows us how history can repeat. The c...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

If you’ve got the raw data, why not mine it for more info? Sergey Nivens/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Sarah Catherine Nelson, University of Washington

Back in 2016, Helen (a pseudonym) took three different direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic tests: AncestryDNA, 23andMe and FamilyTreeDNA. She saw genetic testing as a way...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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