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  1. seer

    The bonds will trade tight in HY after the initial shakeout, but spreads will widen.  It will be a welcome addition  to the index given what's available in the sector and a big part of it. The two notch downgrade and liquidity rating of 3 out  of 4 is harsh and reflects the analyst's lack of experience (amazing they would assign someone so junior and green to this company, but that's another conversation).

     Looks like I won't get the pullback I was hoping for in the stock, but it should drop if the rest of the market does so maybe there will be another opportunity.

    ~~Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") downgraded the senior unsecured ratings of Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, Ltd ("Teva") and its subsidiaries to Ba2 from Baa3. Moody's also assigned a Ba2 Corporate Family Rating, Ba2-PD Probability of Default Rating, and SGL-3 Speculative Grade Liquidity Rating. The rating outlook is stable. This action concludes the rating review initiated on December 14, 2017.

    * "The downgrade of Teva's ratings to speculative grade reflects the challenge
      of managing its significant debt burden while facing a prolonged period of
      earnings erosion," commented Morris Borenstein, Moody's Assistant Vice
      President. "While Teva's cost restructuring program will help to partially
      offset declines, execution risk is high. In addition, we believe earnings
      declines from Copaxone and its US generics business will be severe, and that
      meaningful deleveraging to under 4 times gross debt/EBITDA will take several
      years to achieve," added Borenstein.
    * Teva's Ba2 Corporate Family Rating reflects its significant scale in both
      generic and branded drugs, its global diversity, and its position as the
      world's largest generic drug company. Teva has the largest generic pipeline
      in the industry, including first-to-file opportunities. This pipeline,
      together with Teva's branded pipeline, will support revenue growth over the
      long term. Still, Moody's expects base earnings and cash flow to severely
      contract over the next two years due to headwinds in its US generics segment
      and generic competition on its largest earnings driver, Copaxone.
    * Teva's credit profile is constrained by high financial leverage, which
      Moody's does not expect will fall below 4 times gross debt/EBITDA until after
      2019. The company has limited financial flexibility and is facing significant
      debt maturities.
    * Teva is taking significant actions to reduce its cost base by $3 billion over
      the next two years, which will shore up profitability and support
      deleveraging. Moody's expects that Teva will use the majority of its free
      cash flow to reduce debt. It is critical that the cost restructuring plan
      boost cash generation enough to keep pace with maturities and to ultimately
      reduce leverage.
    * While Moody's believes that Teva's cost base will come down, the timing
      through 2019 is uncertain. Moody's views Teva's cost restructuring plan and
      reorganization as aggressive and it raises the risk for business disruptions.
      At the same time, potential portfolio rationalizations in the generics
      segment could harm Teva's relationships with customers.
    * Teva's SGL-3 Speculative Grade Liquidity Rating reflects an adequate
      liquidity profile. Teva has roughly $7.5 billion of debt maturing through
      2019. Beyond previously announced divestiture proceeds, Moody's projects free
      cash flow of around $2.5 billion which is insufficient to cover all of Teva's
      2018 debt maturities without moderate refinancing. Moody's does not assume
      any asset sales, although the company has used asset sales in the past to
      reduce debt. The credit agreements contain financial covenants including
      minimum interest coverage of 3.50 times and maximum net debt/EBITDA of 5.00
      times declining to 4.75 times beginning in 2019 with further step downs.
      Moody's believes that the company will likely breach the leverage covenant in
      the first quarter 2018 unless it amends its credit agreements. Teva has a
      $4.5 billion revolving credit facility expiring in 2020 that is undrawn,
      although access is limited due to covenant concerns.
    * The rating outlook is stable reflecting Moody's view that Teva will be
      focused on debt repayment. It also reflects Moody's expectation that credit
      metrics will be weak over the next 18 months before realized cost savings
      drive improvement.
    * Moody's rates all of Teva's debt Ba2, the same as its Ba2 Corporate Family
      Rating. All of Teva's debt is unsecured and unconditionally guaranteed by
      Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, the parent company.
    * Teva's ratings could be upgraded if the company materially improves its
      operating performance and liquidity, and is able to more than offset price
      erosion with new product launches. Teva would also need to improve its growth
      trajectory, notably supported by successful product launches. Additionally,
      Teva would need to sustain debt/EBITDA below 4.5 times before Moody's would
      consider an upgrade.
    * The ratings could be downgraded if Teva's operating performance remains weak,
      or if it encounters operating disruptions while implementing its major cost
      restructuring plan. Ratings could also be downgraded if free cash flow
      remains weak for an extended period of time, or if Moody's expects
      debt/EBITDA to remain above 5.0 times. Failure to receive covenant relief
      under its credit agreements, or a failure to repay or refinance upcoming debt
      maturities well in advance could also lead to a downgrade.

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Zero Hedge

US Doubles Down As Empire Declines

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Kevin Zeese and Margaret Flowers via,

US empire is in decline. Reports of the end of the US being the unitary power in world affairs are common, as are predictions of the end of US empire. China surpassed the United States as the world economic leader according to Purchasing Power Parity Gross National Product, and ...

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Phil's Favorites

Trade War Humor? Zimbabwe Rejects Imported Chinese Condoms For Being "Too Small"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

A Chinese condom manufacturer is considering producing its prophylactics in different (read: larger) sizes after Zimbabwe's health minister complained that the condoms its produces are too small, and are therefore ineffective at helping the country combat its rampant AIDS crisis.

Zhao Chuan, the chief executive of condom manufacturer Beijing Daxiang and His Friends Technology Co, told the South China Morning Post that his firm was planning to produce a new suite of products following the complaints.

Chuan's announcement comes after Health Minister David Parirenyatwa made the comments at an event in the capital Harare last week to promote HIV/Aids ...

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Insider Scoop

41 Biggest Movers From Yesterday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. (NASDAQ: OMEX) shares climbed 118.42 percent to close at $8.30 on Thursday after the company disclosed positive Mexico Court Decision nullifying a previous denial of application for Don Diego project.
  • Omeros Corporation (NASDAQ: OMER) shares gained 35.31 percent to close at $15.75. The maker of a cataract surgery drug called Omidria realized a "big win" from Wednesday's release of the U.S. government spending bill, according to Stat News. Specifically, a policy included in the spending bill includes a pass-through exte... more from Insider

Chart School

Bitcoin Cycles Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker. uses Bartel's logic to find dominant cycles in a time series.

Cycles are present in markets, as shown below the 22 and 40 day cycles on calendar days looks like the best fit. Therefore the chart below suggest we can expect a bitcoin low either now or in a few weeks.

Bitcoin has not been effected by the SP500/Dow sell off which is a very bullish sign, bitcoin may see safe haven money chasing price very soon, add to this the sister coin, litecoin, isgetting ready for wider use with the massive e-commerce payment market (litepay, litepal, atomic swamps, lightening network).

The bitcoin move is not over!


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U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross Speaks With CNBC's "Power Lunch" Today

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

WHEN: Today, Thursday, March 22, 2018

WHERE: CNBC’s “Power Lunch”

Following is the unofficial transcript of a FIRST ON CNBC interview with U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on CNBC’s “Power Lunch” (M-F 1PM – 3PM) today, Thursday, March 22nd. Following are links to video from the interview on

]]> Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Timeless Reading in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.


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Digital Currencies

Why accountants of the future will need to speak blockchain and cryptocurrency if they want your money


Why accountants of the future will need to speak blockchain and cryptocurrency if they want your money


Courtesy of Anwar Halari, The Open University

If you haven’t already heard of Bitcoin, you either haven’t been paying attention or you’re a time traveller who just touched down in 2018. Because by now, most of us will have heard of Bitcoin and some of us have even jumped on the bandwagon, investing in cryptocurrencies.

But despite its popularity, many people still don’t understand the technology that underlines it: blockchain. In...

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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)


"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...

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How your brain is wired to just say 'yes' to opioids

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


How your brain is wired to just say ‘yes’ to opioids

A Philadelphia man, who struggles with opioid addiction, in 2017. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Courtesy of Paul R. Sanberg, University of South Florida and Samantha Portis, University of South Florida


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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!


We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.


EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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