Archive for February, 2018

Economists’ Latest Leading Recessionary Indicator: Sex

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

When it comes to unorthodox indicators of the business cycle – especially when the business cycle is the second longest in history such as this one – economists have always had creative ways of “calculating” where in the cycle we are at any given moment.

Starting in the 1926s, economist George Taylor came up with the “hemline index” which suggested that the length of women’s skirts tracked stock market performance — rising and falling in tandem. In good economies, we get such results as miniskirts while in poor economic times, as shown by the 1929 Wall Street Crash, hems can drop almost overnight.

Several decades later, former Fed chair Alan Greenspan used to track sales of men’s underwear, which he said fell at the onset of recessions as men delayed buying new underwear during tough economic times.

Then there was the lipstick index proposed by Estée Lauder chairman Leonard Lauder in 2001: he claimed that purchases of cosmetics were inversely correlated with the health of the economy (the idea was later discredited). The 2008 recession gave rise to the tie index, sales of which, it was claimed, rise as employees fear for their jobs.

Now, according to new research there is a new indicator that can warn of a coming recession: sex, or rather the 9 month consequences thereof: the rise and fall of pregnancies.

According to a paper paper published on Monday by the National Bureau of Economic Research, ahead of the past three US recessions, the number of conceptions began to fall at least six months before the economy started to contract. As the FT notes, while previous research has shown how birth rates track economic cycles, the scientific study is the first to show that fertility declines are a leading indicator for recessions.

Speaking to the FT, Daniel Hungerman, economics professor at the University of Notre Dame and one of the report’s authors, said it was “striking” that the drop in pregnancies was evident before the recession that came after the 2007 financial crisis, since it has traditionally been argued that this slump had been hard to predict.

It may be difficult for “experts” but apparently not for a couple deciding what to do next in the bedroom.

The analysis used data on the 109 million births in the US between…
continue reading





Our Fragmented Labor Markets Defy Outdated Conventions

Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds

Conventional economists/media pundits typically view the labor market as monolithic, i.e. as one unified market. The reality is the labor market is highly fragmented. Thus it's little wonder that conventional measures are giving mixed signals on employment, wage inflation, etc.

Here is a typical chart of the labor market: the annual rate of change in hourly earnings, going back to the late 1960s. I've annotated the chart to show that hourly earning rose sharply in the inflationary 1970s, but since then have only popped higher in asset bubbles--the dot-com era and the housing bubble:

Generalized measures that lump all wage earners together give us a snapshot of trends, but they fail to describe the realities of today's labor markets. The reality is much more complex, and thus beyond the outdated conventions that divide the labor force into broad sectors:

1. While most workers are receiving little in the way of wage increases, employers' total compensation costs are soaring due to skyrocketing healthcare premiums and other labor-overhead costs such as workers compensation.

Economists puzzled by the lack of wage inflation in an era of "full employment" should look at total compensation costs instead of wages: the inflation is in the labor-overhead costs, not employee compensation.

2. Regions dominated by a handful of employers do not offer many opportunities for employees to jump to other employers for higher pay. This lack of competition enables dominant employers to suppress wage growth.

3. Scarcities of skills and experience that drive wages higher tend to be sector-specific and are often localized. Across the broad spectrum of basic skills and experience (for example, white-collar work performed by employees with non-technical college diplomas), there are few scarcities that could push wages higher.

4. Regardless of labor availability/scarcity, many small-business employers can't afford to pay higher wages, given their soaring labor-overhead expenses. If wages rise, their options include selling out, closing down, or doing more of the work themselves. Paying higher wages will simply guarantee monthly losses. If you're losing money operating an enterprise, why be in business?

5. Employers demand a great deal now of lower-wage service sector employees. Fast-food jobs (for example) require high levels of productivity


continue reading





“They’re Finally Accepting Reality” – Manhattan Landlords Are Slashing Rents To Fill Vacant Storefronts

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Owners of Manhattan’s commercial real-estate might soon begin to regret their decision to hike rents to absurdly high levels in the hope of attracting the next Chase, Bank of America or Duane Reade capable of paying their extortionate prices.

As Bloomberg reports, owners of prime retail storefronts in the heart of Soho – a trendy shopping district in downtown Manhattan – are struggling to find and retain tenants willing to pay the record rents being demanded by landlords.

BBG

The Bloomberg story begins by recounting the story of one boutique clothing shop that threatened to vacate its space six years early and just eat its security deposit unless the landlord agreed to a lower rate.

The Kooples, a French clothing seller, is threatening to vacate its space six years ahead of schedule if it can’t get landlord Thor Equities to cut the rent. With brick-and-mortar stores suffering from a retail industry shakeout, the company says it isn’t making enough money at the property and wants to focus on the web.

The scene unfolding on the cobblestones of one of New York’s trendiest shopping areas shows the increasingly fraught negotiations between tenants and landlords as vacancies soar and retail rents plunge. Similar scenarios are playing out along Madison Avenue to the north and along other thoroughfares in the city that have long been a draw for those shopping for designer clothing and other luxury goods. Property owners are confronting demands once unheard of in Manhattan, from rent reductions to short-term leases.

Again and again, we’ve pointed to the stagnant deals and rents in some of Manhattan’s wealthiest and most expensive areas as a sign that the New York real-estate market is heading for a downturn after years of torrid growth in the valuations of residential and commercial real-estate.

Manhattan

According to Bloomberg, after a lull in leasings, landlords are beginning to accept their new reality, according to Patrick Smith, a vice chairman of the retail brokerage at Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. It no longer makes sense to keep rents so high in the hopes of landing one of the few corporate clients willing to pay.

Indeed, “landlords are adjusting the way they do business to market conditions,” Smith said. “It’s healthy. It certainly has stimulated activity.”

Of course, outside of Manhattan,…
continue reading





Animal Spirits: The Closet Indexer

 

Animal Spirits: The Closet Indexer

Courtesy of 

On today’s show we talk about:

Listen here:

Charts

      

Recommendations

Thanks for listening!





10 Questions for Nassim Taleb

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb introduced by David McWilliams.


Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues

Ray Dalio eBook

Nassim Nicholas Taleb interviewed by Bruce Oreck at the Tomorrow conference in June 2015. .

Nassim Nicholas Taleb interviewed by Bruce Oreck at the Tomorrow conference in June 2015. . Beschreibu.

The Black Swan author’s latest, The Bed of Procrustes, is a book of aphorisms.Nassim Taleb will now take your questions.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a former trader and hedge fund manager, a best-selling author, and a groundbreaking theorist on risk and resilience. Taleb drew wide attention after the 2007 publication.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Image source: Bloomberg Video Screenshot

The post 10 Questions for Nassim Taleb appeared first on ValueWalk.

Sign up for ValueWalk’s free newsletter here.





Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. Gabelli Research

By Rizwan1. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. – Gabelli Research Analyst Kevin Kedra (2-15-2018)

Invest with Us 1-800-GABELLI (800-422-3554)


Get The Full Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

Charlie Munger eBook

http://facebook.com/gabellitv

GabelliTV

The post Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. Gabelli Research appeared first on ValueWalk.

Sign up for ValueWalk’s free newsletter here.





The Pricking Of The Canadian Real Estate Bubble?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog,

First of all, sorry for the lack of posts lately. Long story, but rest assured, I am back on track and the old ‘tourist regular postings have resumed.

Next up, today I will write about Canadian real estate.

I know, many of you find that about as exciting as watching Winter Olympic curling, but give me a chance – after all, we Canadians have a way to make even curling entertaining.

The Canadian real estate bubble

As most everyone knows, over the past decade, Canada has experienced a massive real estate boom.

And for the past half dozen years, we have had to endure all the proclamations from hedge fund managers about the coming great Canadian housing market crash. Although there has also been some Canadian skeptics, the majority of these doomsdayers have been American managers who, after experiencing their own real estate crisis, can only imagine the next “big short” occurring in Canada.

These managers often simply took the US playbook and applied it to Canada, never considering that the US situation might be different. Nor did they factor in the possibility that Central Bank reaction functions might have changed since the Great Financial Crisis.

Don’t mistake me for some sort of unapologetic delusional Canadian housing bull. I think prices are nuts. But what I think is even more insane is the amount of balance sheet expansion from global Central Banks. We must always remember – the Canadian real estate bears are fighting against the authority that has the power to dictate the quantity of the asset in which we price all these other assets in.

Whether it be US or Canadian dollars, or Euros, or Yuan, do you really believe the supply of money will be suddenly throttled back? Or is it more likely that, given that 2008 is still relatively fresh in their minds, Central Banks will err on providing too much liquidity in the coming years? So yeah, maybe Canadian housing is stupidly overpriced, but so is almost every asset under the sun. Whether it is US equities, European bonds or crypto currencies, these are merely reflections of the absurd monetary policies that envelope the global financial system.

Finally the Canadian bears’ day in the sun?

Yet that doesn’t…
continue reading





In Practice Webcast 13b : Evaluating Dividend Policy – Peer Group Approach

By Rizwan1. Originally published at ValueWalk.

As with much else in corporate finance, companies set dividend policy by looking at what the peer group is doing, paying high dividends when they are, even if they cannot afford them. In this session, I look at the peer group approach to dividend policy, with emphasis on how your peer group is formed and how to control for differences across companies.

Slides: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pd…

The post In Practice Webcast 13b : Evaluating Dividend Policy – Peer Group Approach appeared first on ValueWalk.

Sign up for ValueWalk’s free newsletter here.





Investing Success with Wyckoff Change of Behaviour

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

investing-success-with-wyckoff-change-of-behaviourThe market changes, some call this volatility, in short the market shows the big boys foot prints (or buy and sell order activity).



More from RTT Tv










Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles and Wyckoff Logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. With our website you can chart any security in the world.



NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



…“My satisfaction always came from beating the market, solving the puzzle.  The money was the reward, but it was not the main reason I loved the market.  The stock market is the greatest, most complex puzzle ever invented – and it pays the biggest jackpot…it was never the money that drove me.  It was the game, solving the puzzle, beating the market that had confused and confounded the greatest minds in history.  For me, that passion, the juice, the exhilaration was in beating the game, a game that was a living dynamic riddle”..



Jesse Livermore





..”If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians”..



Warren Buffett





Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50 per cent without becoming panic stricken, you should not be in the stock market.



Warren Buffett





..”Until an hour before the Devil fell, God thought him beautiful in Heaven”..



Arthur Miller, “The Crucible”

 [Contrarian Investing]











..”The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them”



Peter Lynch











Walmart Hikes Age Requirement For Firearm Purchases To 21

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Just hours after Dick’s announced it would end sales of all assault rifles and no longer sell any guns to people under 21, moments ago Walmart – or Warmart, as Bloomberg briefly dubbed it in a rather amusing Freudian slip moments ago…

… joined the bandwagon announcing late on Wednesday that “in light of recent events” America’s largest retailer is “raising the age restriction for purchase of firearms and ammunition to 21 years of age.”

Of course, Walmart could not fully replicate Dick’s “taking a stand”, because it had already stopped selling assault-style rifles back in 2015 due to sluggish demand for guns rather than politics according to the company.

“It was done purely based on customer demand,” Kory Lundberg, a Walmart spokesman, told The New York Times in August 2015. The rifles, he said, were not “something customers were looking for and buying when they came into our stores.”

That however did not stop the angry public to demand that Walmart, which remains the country’s largest gun seller, to follow suit.

“Walmart — PLEASE match the pledge made by Dick’s Sporting goods for the sake of our children,” a Facebook user wrote on Wednesday.

But just to appease the public in a clear attempt at PR crisis management, Walmart said that it was also “removing items from our website resembling assault-style rifles, including nonlethal airsoft guns and toys.”

Nonetheless, Walmart still sells rifles and hand guns: “Our heritage as a company has always been in serving sportsmen and hunters, and we will continue to do so in a responsible way.”

Full statement below:

In light of recent events, we’ve taken an opportunity to review our policy on firearm sales. Going forward, we are raising the age restriction for purchase of firearms and ammunition to 21 years of age. We will update our processes as quickly as possible to implement this change.

In 2015, Walmart ended sales of modern sporting rifles, including the AR-15. We also do not sell handguns, except in Alaska where we feel we should continue to offer them to our customers. Additionally, we do not sell bump stocks, high-capacity magazines and similar accessories. We have a process to monitor our eCommerce marketplace and ensure our policies are applied.

We take seriously our obligation to


continue reading





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

The dysfunctional debt ceiling and why we should kill it: 5 questions answered

 

The dysfunctional debt ceiling and why we should kill it: 5 questions answered

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is taking ‘extraordinary measures’ to avoid busting the debt ceiling. AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana

Courtesy of Steven Pressman, Colorado State University

Editor’s note: The U.S. government maxed out its national credit card in March and has been moving money around ever since to avoid running out of cash. Very soon the Treasury Department ...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

This Is Where The Next Recession Will Start: An Epidemiological Study

By Nicholas Colas of DataTrek

(Published at ZeroHedge)

US recessions are like epidemics: they all begin somewhere, and the “tell” is state-level unemployment data. For example, the end of the 2000 dot com bubble hit Connecticut and Massachusetts first – two hubs for the financials services industry with lots of affluent investors to boot. The end of the 2000s housing boom predictably impacted Florida and Nevada before the rest of the country. This time around, the data shows the manufacturing-heavy states of Michigan, Ohio and Indiana are most at risk. No wonder “Dr. Fed” wants to inoculate the region with lower interest rates.

When medical professionals study epidemics, they look for the source of the ou...



more from Tyler

Digital Currencies

Cryptos Suddenly Panic-Bid, Bitcoin Back Above $10k

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following further selling pressure overnight, someone (or more than one) has decided to buy-the-dip in cryptos this morning, sending Bitcoin (and most of the altcoins) soaring...

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Bitcoin surged back above $10,000...

Ethereum bounced off suppo...



more from Bitcoin

Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver ETF (SLV) Testing Dual Breakout Resistance

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Silver (NYSEARCA: SLV) has been in a bit of a slumber when compared to the price action for Gold (NYSEARCA: GLD).

Precious metals bulls hope that this about to change, as bullish action from Silver is necessary to confirm any bull market / move in metals.

Today’s chart takes a closer look at the Silver ETF (SLV) on a weekly basis. As you can see, Silver is up 5 percent this week alone.

This is good news for metals bulls. But this rally isn’t confirming a breakout just yet.

As you can see in the chart below, SLV has been trading between support (1) ...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

Analysts Weigh In On Netflix's Rocky Quarter

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) reported second-quarter results highlighted by an uncharacteristic decline in U.S. subscribers while international subscriber adds missed expectations. Here is a summary of how some of the Street's top analysts reacted to the print.

The Analysts

Mor...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



more from Biotech

ValueWalk

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

 

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

Courtesy of Jacob Wolinsky, ValueWalk

ValueWalk’s Q&A session with Professor Shubha Ghosh, a professor of law and the director of the Syracuse Intellectual Property Law Institute. In this interview, Professor Ghosh discusses his background, the Human Genome Project, the current state of gene editing, 3D printing for organ operations, and gene editing regulation.

...

more from ValueWalk

Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Charts show us the golden brick road to high prices.

GLD Gann Angle has been working since 2016. Higher prices are expected. Who would say anything different, and why and how?

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



The GLD very wide channel shows us the way.
- Conservative: Tag the 10 year rally starting in 2001 to 2019 and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 10 years.
- Aggressive: Tag the 5 year rally starting in 1976 to 2019  and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 5 years.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if ima...



more from Chart School

Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



more from Our Members

Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>