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Tumblin’ Tuesday – Thursday and Friday’s Low-Volume Gains Erased at the Open

You can't say we didn't tell you so.  

In Friday's report I said: "We're now only 5% below the "obviously overbought" market top.  What changed in the past 7 days?…  The reason I'm skeptical of the rally is that we've bounced back on 1/3 the volume at which we sold off and forming a weak base is why we were shorting the market in the first place a few weaks ago.  Apparently, traders have learned nothing at all this month and we're right back to the madness of the Dow moving up 1,500 points on ridiculously low volume.  This is simply a lack of sellers at the moment and God help us all if they come back!"  Fortunately, we also followed through with our hedges and went into the weekend with a bearish tilt to our portfolios – locking in last week's silly gains.

Even better, of course, were the Futures Trade Ideas we featured in Friday morning's Report, in which I said:  "As I noted in yesterday's Report, we amped up our hedges into the weekend and, this morning, I put out a note to our Members saying":

/YM is 25,300, that's my favorite short and we have /ES 2,740, /NQ 6,845 and /TF1,545 and my stop-outs are if we get over 2,750, 6,850 or 1,550 but, otherwise, I want to accumulate /YM shorts.  

As you can see, we already had a nice $4,385 gain on the /YM shorts by 1:15 on Friday – not bad for 4 hours' work!  After that we were able to rely on our index hedges to protect us and, into the close, we addred the following trade idea for the Russell Ultra-Short (TZA):

I'd go TZA July $11 ($2)/15 (0.90) for $1.10 you get $5 in protection and it's almost $1 in the money to start.  

TZA closed Friday at $11.84 and is should still be a playable hedge this morning if you think your portfolio is too vunerable.  A $3.14 gain in TZA would be 26% and, since TZA is a 3x short for the Russell, that would mean a 9% dip in the Russell should correspond to a 27% gain in TZA, putting the hedge in the money for a $3.90 (354%) gain and, since 354% is 39 times more than 9%, each $1,000 you play on TZA protects $40,000 of your bullish plays against a 9% loss.  See – hedging is not really that complicated, is it?

The Global situation is still very complicated and we prefer to error on the side of caution – especially after seeing a demonstration of how quickly this market can unwind when it's in the mood.  Obviously Trump has his troubles and so does the UK as Brexit begins to look more and more damaging to the World's 5th-largest economy.  China has been on vacation with Hong Kong back on this morning and the mainland coming back to work on Thursday.  The Hang Seng had a considerable drop into the close, getting the week off to a poor start for China.  

WalMart (WMT) has disappointed the Dow this morning with a miss on earnings and is down over 5% so far and that could get worse as profits in Q4 were only $2.18Bn compared to $3.76Bn last year as they simply got their asses kicked in on-line sales, even as same-store sales grew a strong 2.6%.  Walmart's plan to raise wages to $11/hour have spooked shareholders and the bonus payments of $700M they made to make Trump happy ovewhelmed the actual tax savings of $207M since, as I've been saying for ages – these big companies already pay no taxes so tax cuts don't really help them!  

We still like WMT overall, but not for $110 or even $90.  We were buying them last year in the $60s – THAT was a fair price.  Even $80 is not bad but $110 was just silly – part of the overall mania that has been gripping the market since the tax cuts were formally announced.  

This is the case with so many companies that we simply can't get more bullish on the markets until the forward earnings hype comes back to reality – and that may take the rest of Q1, into the next earnings (April) before traders (who aren't very good at math) begin to understand that there are no magic beans that will drive earnings up 20% on tax cuts and the repatriation of overseas funds – both of which are one-time events that cannot be repeated going forward.

There's very little data this week but plenty of Fed Speak and the Fed Minutes will be released Wednesday at 2pm.  The US is auctioning off a huge amount of notes this week as well as our debt soars back to record highs in the first year of Trump's first budget – so that's going to be fun and it's going to put more pressure on the already-strained bond markets.  

In addition to the 6 speakers you can see, Raphael Bostic speaks at 12:10 pm on Thursday so the Fed will be giving us a lot to chew over and don't forget earnings, which are still coming hot and heavy as the final 100 of the S&P 500 are still turning in their reports along with hundreds of other smaller companies:

In fact, according to Value Trap: "Screening all S&P 500 constituents, tax law change adds ~5% to EPS growth this year, summing bottom-up and median rate. It's not the bonanza bulls believe and it's been discounted over and over again."

This is no reason for the markets to be up 20% – or even 10% for that matter and I stand by my assertion that the bottom we hit last week is more likely to be – at BEST – the middle of the range for the bulk 2018 and, very possibly, the top.  

So please, be careful out there! 


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  1. A civil war in a Carnival cruise, passengers gated in their cabins and no way to impose control with the crew.  

  2. Bumping against the 50 DMA! Resistance there would make sense for the bots!

  3. There are always excuses for why tax cuts fail to deliver:

    Heard a random Republican talking head on NPR recently, and when the interviewer questioned him on the “Kansas experiment,” his automatic response was a) Kansas “massively” increased spending when they cut taxes, so that’s why they have problems; and b) North Carolina has done the same thing without the increased spending and it’s working great.

    Not true of course:

    Tax simply never pay for themselves and unless targeted at the middle class have no lasting growth power. But we are governed by idiots who refuse to look at facts!

  4. Predicting the future is a risky proposition:

  5. Wow, someone is bullish on Netflix:

  6. Good Morning.

  7. Phil--you are going to make us depressed!!!

  8. Good morning! 

    I hope everyone had a nice holiday.  

    We spent the weekend in NYC and I'm still shocked at how many empty retail spaces there are – especially in the Village where some streets are 50% empty.  It's really killing the neighborhoods but not the property prices – which are completely out of control – about $1M for a 1Br is not unusual.  

    When you let "market forces" determine rents – then market forces can end up destroying the living conditions of a city and things collapse.  The stores can't afford to hire people who need to live around there and, of course, rising costs of public transportation makes it pointless for people to commute to minimum wage jobs so the store close down and the landlords don't want to lower rents so the stores stay open and the jobs are gone so more and more low-income people have to move out and now there's even less people to work, etc. until the whole thing collapses under its own weight.

    IMAX/Jabob – That's what I've been saying!  

    Carnival/Advill – I hate the "booze cruises" – that's why we like Disney – you don't get that crowd.   Apparently, though, it was 23 people from the same family who are supposedly the main cause of the disruption.

    Big Chart – Still all about those 50 dmas – up or down tells the story and it looks like we're getting goosed into the open. 

    Depressed/Jabob – I was looking for cautious. 

  9. ABX under 13.. 

  10. Phil,

    Would you please advise on QCOM; specifically 2020 $50P, with an initial 5 contractsand a DD if needed. Thanks as always….Can always watch and wait for a more profitable opportunity!

  11. Saudi Resistance to Nuclear Standards Could Roil U.S. Reactor Deal

  12. South Korean Cryptocurrency Regulator Found Dead at Home

  13. QCOM/Jasu – It's kind of crazy with the AVGO offer on the side and them otherwise overpaying for NXPI by a mile (which makes it more likely that AVGO falls apart – not that QCOM wants it anyway but shareholders do).  It's a stay-away to me, way too hard to predict though your put sale is conservative.

    Big Oil finally seeing the light:

    • Global demand for crude oil could peak by 2040 as the use of self-driving cars and renewables such as solar power increases, BP (BP +0.6%) says in its Annual Energy Outlook.
    • BP believes the world’s appetite for oil and other liquid fuels could continue to grow until around 2035, hitting 110.3M bbl/day vs. 95M bbl/day in 2015 before plateauing and falling off moving to 2040.
    • BP foresees a 100-fold growth in electric vehicles by 2040, as chief economist Spencer Dale envisions much more travel but sharing trips in autonomous vehicles rather than using private cars.
    • The company’s new outlook shows peak oil demand coming more quickly than earlier forecasts for crude demand to continue rising until the 2040s; nevertheless, it still expects personal vehicles and industrial trucks to be dominated by oil, with demand comprising ~85% of total transport fuel in 2040 vs. 94% today.

    I am so sick of this peak oil BS!

    No one disputes that there is AT LEAST 50 years worth of verified, discovered crude out there, what they are talking about is peak production and that is based on the asinine logic that rigs are in tight supply but that won’t continue for long when someone makes $90 on the spread from producing to selling a barrel of oil, even at today’s extreme righ rates and tight labor market. 

    To say that production is inelastic is ridiculous, it’s been inelastic because every single spike in oil that would have justified bringing more production on line has been just that, a spike!  If we sustain these prices then Billions of barrels of oil that cost $50-60 to produce could come on line in the time it takes to build new rigs.  That is not even including the 3.5Tn barrels of tar-sand and shale oil that is locked up in the US and Canada that could be produced at the same (less than $60) price.  The only isssue is that no one is going to commit to spending $5Bn to build a shale processing plant that breaks even at $70 a barrel if prices are possibly heading back to $80.

    If we ever elect a real President they can contract with PhilCo energy to buy 500M barrels at no less than $90 a barrel ($45Bn) and I could go get my $5Bn loan and begin my 3-year construction while the US sells 2M barrels of oil a week at the prevailing rates out of the SPR.  In 3 years, my domestic supply of 2Mbd will far offset the 2M/week that the US is using and they can begin refilling their 300M barrels with my much cheaper $90 barrels so at $130 to $90, the US would make a $12Bn profit on the deal while Philco would make $40M a day on the $20 spread between $70 production costs and $90 selling price and the US will have increased domestic output by 20%.

    Submitted on 2009/06/29 at 3:41 pm

    Windmills/Potter – The US is hit with enough sun and wind every day to power the entire planet twice over.  If you believe the "peak oil" idiots, all those energy jobs will be gone soon anyway as we run out so it is nothing but healthy to introduce a new base for energy workers.  There are 100M homes in America that need solar panels, that could keep 1M 6-man teams busy for a few years just doing the installations, then you ‘ve got the production work and the infrastructure jobs and you’ve already replaced all 6M energy jobs while working to cut out 20% of the nation’s energy usage, even more if we transition to electric cars along the way…

    Submitted on 2012/02/15 at 12:40 pm

    Gasoline/Kinki – New cars are getting way more fuel efficient.  This was part of my long-term premise to short oil from 5 years ago and this trend will not go away.  That's why peak oil is bogus – the only reason we have such inefficient cars was because oil was cheap, if oil is expensive, we will learn to use less of it and there is no way they can cut production back faster than we cut consumption without some serious offsetting economic growth which is not happening in this economic environment.   We consume 19M barrels a day, China 8.5Mbd – if we cut 5% (1Mbd) China has to grow 11.7% just to keep consumption level and they certainly aren't looking for ways to waste fuel either.  Europe is already way more efficient than we are but the whole World can improve and it doesn't take much improvement on 86Mbd consumed globally to create a pretty serious production glut (beyond the one we already have).  But, back to the main point – I'm not sure we can really say that lower fuel consumption = bad economy – just that oil has gotten to a price people aren't willing to pay at this level of consumption.  Tina even took the Volvo to the Atlantic City this summer instead of the Mustang because she was pissed at how much gas cost her the first trip (over $100 at 12 mpg).  I'm sure people are making similar choices even if they don't have new cars yet.  There's a psychological breaking point when people buy gas and it's over $50, which is about where we get with gas over $3.50 a gallon.  

    Submitted on 2013/06/12 at 9:45 pm

    Oil glut/ZZ – I've been saying it since 2007 – that's when the whole supply/demand curve began inverting on them only back then, they were still spinning that peak oil BS and I had to deal with those fanatics on a daily basis.  Middle East is mostly screwed without oil money – I don't see how they can transition quickly enough as they are 80% or more oil now in most OPEC nations and barely getting by on $90 oil pumping at max capacity – if oil drops to $70 – they can't pump more so revenues fall 25% but they'll pump all they can and drop oil to $55 and then they are in deficits etc.  The time to invest in a new economy came and went for those guys.  Dubai may have pulled it off by making themselves a commerce and banking center but it took 20 years and it almost broke them in boom times.  Now, I just can't see even the Saudis pulling it off.  

    Peak Oil/StJ – Has always been a myth.  Once there was a peak coal scare and, before that, peak wood (although they did actually deforest a lot of Europe).

    Submitted on 2014/06/11 at 10:56 am

    Imports/Shadow – Keep in mind that 8% less than last year is about 5Mb/Week less oil than last year.  That's how far demand has dipped in the US.  There's a reason that the 2017 oil contracts at $85 – they know peak demand has passed and now it's just a question of how long they can fake it before the whole trade unravels on them.  

    Submitted on 2014/07/21 at 9:50 am

    All this "peak oil" nonsense is the same BS they roll out all the time when they want to goose oil prices.  In 2007 they told us the Saudis were out of oil and then it was Mexico and Venezuela and then Brazil and then Canada would be out soon.  It's such a load of crap – but it does fool some of the people all of the time – so they keep doing it.  

    Submitted on 2014/12/10 at 4:07 pm

    Can we now, please, line up all the analysts and pundits who used to say "Peak Oil" and shoot them?

    Submitted on 2015/08/04 at 2:53 pm

    Oil/StJ – I said that back in 2008 when people were screaming "Peak Oil" that it was really peak demand.  Should have just made that one trade and retired…

    Submitted on 2016/07/13 at 12:55 pm

    The only thing that made oil valuable was the ability of OPEC and then our own US Cartel to be able to manipulate the prices while regulators looked the other way.  There's no natural reason for it to come back because it's not at all rare or hard to find.  Peak oil was what they used to say in the 70s to drive prices higher – there's no indication of that and, in fact, like wood or coal, we'll more likely stop using it long before we run out. 

    Submitted on 2016/11/28 at 11:40 pm

    Peak demand for oil is the big new thing. True, the International Energy Agency, in the annual World Energy Outlook it released earlier this month, didn’t envision a peak coming before 2040 barring a big acceleration in anti-climate-change efforts. But at least it’s talking about the possibility, …

    Submitted on 2017/03/20 at 3:19 pm

    Demand/Latch – Well I wouldn't say peak or no peak but gasoline will peak out where we are now and go into decline so oil demand will drop off too BUT that doesn't mean that, ultimately, demand won't catch up again over time – especially if oil stays cheap and gets used for more things.  LONGER-TERM, I think solar/electric will be our primary source of power and heat and sythetics (that we create) will replace oil for most industrial uses.  We can already build diamonds – not a big leap to hydrocarbons and then it's just a matter of cost/efficiency.  Actually, Germany ran their army on synthetic gasoline 75 years ago and they did pretty well – came in 2nd!  

    Submitted on 2017/07/07 at 7:22 am

    Death of oil/StJ – That's exactly the time-frame I've been predicting for years but the Volvo announcement (no more gas-only cars by 2019) probably means that time-frame (2040) is still conservative.  So now the rest of the World is waking up to my peak demand theory which then leads to our Stranded Oil Theory that impacts the Saudis (so they are selling Aramco now) and other producing countries, whose reserve values will run downhill fast.

  14. Did WMT just become a bargain?

  15. Phil/NXPI

    Good morning!

    Hey, I sold some Jan 2018 puts and those expired, of course.

    I also sold some 2019 $100 and $110 puts.

    I know what you have said in the past about the deal possibly breaking down due to lack of tender.

    what do you think now?

    Safe to sell some 2019 $120 puts now?

  16. WMT/Tangled – Clearly you didn't read the above post.  Cheaper is not a bargain.  This is what happens when you give retail companies .com multiples. 

    Speaking of valuation:

    • Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) lead director Tom Horton tells CNBC that Broadcom’s (NASDAQ:AVGO) latest bid was “just not even close to what the value of the company is.”
    • Horton: “We’re on the verge of reaping the benefits of all the investments we’ve made in 5G, which is rolling out in a very profound way over the next couple of years. And we’ve just closed on the NXP deal, which has $1.50 of accretion inherent in it so that part of the puzzle has now been put in place.” 
    • Qualcomm shares are down 1.9%
    • Broadcom shares are up 2.3%.     
    • NXP Semiconductors (NASDAQ:NXPI) is up 6.1%.           
    • Previously: Qualcomm increases NXP offer to $44B, activist investor approves (Feb. 20)
    • Previously: Broadcom: Qualcomm's boosted NXP offer a unilateral value transfer (Feb. 20)

    NXPI/Maya – I think QCOM is determined to close NXPI as it makes them harder to swallow but I still think they are wildly overpaying for NXPI, maybe should be $100 max so what do you plan to do with your puts if the deal does fall apart?   You have to have a good, comfortable plan for that before you go messing around like that, just to collect, what, $2?  Clearly the risk is $20 and the reward is $2 so are you more than 90% sure you'll get paid.  Will you go through these bets 10 time before one of the deals blows up to make a profit?

    BitCoin $11,730 now that they killed that South Korean regulator.  

    Nas up 0.8% (same as AAPL).  Dow down half a point, others flat.  

  17. What a huge spread between the /RB March and April contracts.  $0.18+ cents.  Doesn't that seem excessive?  It should narrow between now and end of month right….?

  18. /RB/Ult – SHOULD but maybe not.  I certainly wouldn't roll early for that price.  Tested $1.75 but not below so far:

    /CL rejected at $62.50 

    Strong Dollar not helping:

    Honey badger don't care:

    Guess what I like to do down here on /KC?

    No Mr Bond, I expect you to die! 

  19. Phil/NXPI

    Point taken, although my assessment of NXPI is different.

    I agree with their shareholders that they are undervalued at $110.

    So, my risk assessment was not $20.

    Regardless, and more to logistics, if the deal DOES go through, what happens to the puts?

    Do they expire at closing of the deal?

    Or am I given the shares at the strike price of puts?

  20. Any one did have a look at MRK hoovering at the low end of the band. Paying Div of 3.49%

  21. Yodi/MRK


    you saw that too?

    I have a ton of PFE but ma be time to get into some MRK also.

    I just love dividends…less tax!

  22. PFE is a bit pricy at present prefer 32 so I wait on that but like some comments on MRK

  23. NXPI/Maya – I think the bump they are getting and it's fine as long as you don't mind being a long-term holder – that's the main point.  Yes, the short puts terminate if the deal goes through for cash and, if some stock swap, they may remain until they expire but become very illiquid.  

    MRK/Yodi – Their older dugs are in sharp decline and Keytruda sales are driving the company now, which is not great but better than nothing.  Clearly they'll have to buy a pipeline and then the long-term hope is they don't screw up and overpay.  GAAP-wise, earnings are not that great (1/30th of Price) while non-GAAP that they report brings their p/e to 15, which is all I'd ever pay for them.  PFE strikes me as a stronger player.  

    TEVA still cheap at $20.

  24. WMT now down nearly 10% I am looking at a jan19 85 put for 4.15 puts you in range of Phil's above comment.

  25. Phil thanks for MRK I agree with PFE closed two weeks ago just about at present range. So for me better at 32.

  26. Hi Phil

    Any levels futures plays you are liking outside of /KC?

  27. Money managers think the worst is yet to come for the S&P 500

    Oil heads for highest close in 2 weeks, with optimism about OPEC's efforts to re-balance the market

    I bet we could recast this campaign as a Crypto-Currency and clean up selling on Conservative sites!

    So our Global GDP is $80Tn and global debt is up $71Tn in 10 years so about 10% of our GDP has been debt-financed for the last 10 years.  That's way more than all the growth! 

    West Boca High students walk off campus in school shooting protest

    Turns out Parkland was where my niece (22) and nephew (25) went to school.

    Levels/Rayne – I usually like to just watch on the first day of the week and, so far, no real clues today that are helpful for tomorrow.

  28. IRM/Phil – knocked down quite a bit, div now yielding 7 % for this data storage company.  Are the clouds various making this obsolete?

  29. PHIL,

    What are your open futures positions?

  30. Indexes getting weaker. 

    IRM/Scott – Not cheap at all and business is going nowhere.  $9.2Bn at $32 with $200M in income (still speculative, 2016 was half of that) and no revenue growth?  No thanks!  I liked them at $25ish (watch list, never triggered) but no way $32.  

    Futures/Japar – Just 4 long /KC @ $120.76 and 2 long /NG @ $2.7145 - the usuals that I pretty much always buy when low in the channel.  

    /RB finally came below $1.75 but I missed it so not chasing.

  31. Oops, that's /NGV8, of course. 

  32. Friggin' Barron's:


    • General Electric (GE -2%) sinks following a weekend Barron's cover story that warns business challenges facing the company could send shares down another 10% or more.
    • Among the headwinds cited in the article: The stock does not look cheap based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis; weak trends in GE’s power business could put 2018 earnings at risk; the market for natural gas turbines for electric utilities is in decline as a result of the growth of increasingly cheap solar and wind power; and ghosts of businesses past – such as the old insurance contracts that caused GE to take a $9.5B pretax charge – continue to haunt the company.
    • One reason it is hard to have confidence in GE, says Deutsche Bank's John Inch, is the dramatic decline in the company’s financial guidance: GE a year ago still talked about generating $2/share in 2018 EPS but its current guidance is $1.00-$1.07, with Wall Street consensus even lower at $0.98, and while many of the company's peers are generating strong growth, GE’s organic sales were down 6% in Q4.
    • "If GE is dumped from the Dow industrials, bulls would seize on that as a sign of a bottom," writes Barron's Andrew Bary. "Yet a close look at GE suggests the stock isn’t cheap based on earnings, a sum-of-the-parts analysis, leverage, complexity, and business challenges. GE’s best days may lie in the past."


    • Gold prices settle -1.9% at $1,331.20/oz. for the sharpest daily decline since December 2016, as the dollar continues its rebound from a brutal selloff in recent weeks and many Asian investors – big buyers in gold – continue to observe Lunar New Year, dampening buying momentum.
    • But gold could get a boost as the U.S. government launches a series of auctions for $258B worth of debt this week; "if there is less than the required appetite for that mountain of debt, that could weaken the dollar and support gold," says Ole Storer, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen. "That leads me to believe that any correction in gold will continue to be a buying opportunity at this stage.

    What kind of pace is selling $258Bn in debt?  Even for the month we're borrowing at a $3Tn pace!  

  33. Advill – a civil war on Carnival Legend – here's another take on the story, and another.   I too have been on the cruise from hell. Staff were probably warned by numerous parties in multiple events over a period of days, and did next to nothing.

    By not taking decisive corrective action immediately, those who take advantage are emboldened, become brazen, and the staff lose control of their ship.  The captain, 1st officer and head of security should be keel hauled for letting this happen on their watch.  But they won't, just a slap on the wrist.

    Whether its brawling, safety or health issues, or literally poisoning their guests to death, ultimately the cruise lines don't give a shit.  Their internal customer service functions running right up through the useless executive level and CEO's, are chocked full of experts in denial.

    Cruise ship customers have no rights or recourse, up to and including robbery, rape, mayhem and murder, not by other customers, by the cruise line staff themselves. Read the contract, the devil is in there, you are just paying cattle and remember, ship happens, Argghhhh and Out.

  34. This would be much worse if QCOM deal wasn't pushing chip stocks way up.

    Cruise/Naybob – Hey, the passengers were offered a 25% refund, that's mighty big of them. blush

    CMG still crushing it:

  35. Phil – 25% refund -"Passengers have been offered a 25% refund but some have criticised the offer as 'unacceptable'." 

    Yeah that is mighty white of them and I'm shocked they even offered it, which means things must have been really bad on that cruise.  And good F-ing luck to the passengers attempting to get anything more out of them.

  36. MODAYS MATTER PHIL!!!! ;-)

  37. Phil – "We spent the weekend in NYC and I'm still shocked at how many empty retail spaces there are – especially in the Village where some streets are 50% empty.  It's really killing the neighborhoods"

    Indeed that urban collapse you aptly describe, the inverse of which, where rents and wages are low, is readily evident in non urban or rural America. 

    My Go State Wolf Pack friend near Chapel Hill NC took the Vette out for a cruise, just about an hour Southbound thought he had driven into a Twilight Zone set. Couldn't buy a burger, eat at a restaurant, get gasoline or even drain the lizard in a public restroom, all shuttered. Said it was surreal and made the hair on the back of his neck stand up.

    There are whole ghost towns in many states, all quite unadvertised and depressing.  Speaking of which sorry Dathan (Jabo), Phil is just being cautious and there is nothing wrong with that especially right about now. IV time and Out.

  38. TUSDAYS AS WELL!!!   :)

  39. Started a new position in SWN.  Two of the American Funds own 7% of the stock.  In addition, it was purchased by Dan Loeb and quite a few other hedge funds in the 4th quarter at prices more than 2 points higher.

    Bought the stock at $3,65.

    Sold the Jan 2019 4 calls for $.80.

    Sold the Jan 2019 3 puts for $.47.

  40. Monday's/Jabob – Today is Tuesday.  

    Ghost towns/Naybob – This country has a huge problem and no one is trying to fix it.

    SWN/Albo – Not my favorite but getting reasonable at this price.

    CHK getting cheaper too:

  41. StJ – isn't the 1977 prediction now technically true?

  42. Hi All.  Does anybody have any good suggestions for RSS reader that works with protected feeds like the comment thread?

  43. Dang! Forgot today was Tuesday! ;-)

  44. Rayne,

    I am sure there are several, but I have found RSSOwl to work great.  Here is what today's RSS link looks like:

    It is the web site link of the day's comment from the email, you will have to remove all comments starting with the ?utm_…. that appears if you reach the web site by clicking on the email link and replace it with 'feed/atom' (without the quotation marks).

    Hope you can get it to work.

  45. Thanks lotter. That works perfectly.

  46. People Want 3 Things from Work, But Most Companies Are Built Around Only One

  47. World shares mixed after Wall Street sell-off, focus on Fed

  48. Just Like Nixon’s Last Days

  49. Good morning!

    All about the Fed minutes today:


    Market's Red Line for Yields Isn't Where Everyone Thinks It Is. (videoAmong the myriad theories for the violent correction in equities two weeks ago, one of the most prominent was a spike in Treasury yields toward the dreaded 3 percent level. It’s wrong, according to Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse AG. At least that’s the case when the 10-year rate is below what he calls the neutral level of 3.5 percent, Golub wrote in a note to clients Tuesday. The last time the 10-year yield topped that was in 2011.

    Productivity Primed to Pick Up in U.S. and Europe, McKinsey SaysThe era of anemic productivity growth may be coming to an end in the U.S. and Europe. So says the research arm of consultation company McKinsey & Co. in a new 147-page report. It argues that productivity could expand at a 2 percent-plus annual clip over the coming decade versus the roughly 0.5 percent pace in recent years. “We are very optimistic” about the potential for achieving significant gains, Jaana Remes, a partner at McKinsey Global Institute in San Francisco, said in an interview.

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    Dennis Gartman Blows Up With Investment In Riot Blockchain