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Monday Market Movement – Trump Turmoil Roils Futures

Oops I Did It Again Snl GIF by Saturday Night LiveOops, he did it again.  

Our deal leader hit the Twitter this weekend, attacking Meuller and his team summarizing all the Team Trump talking points with the following (1 of 8):

The Mueller probe should never have been started in that there was no collusion and there was no crime. It was based on fraudulent activities and a Fake Dossier paid for by Crooked Hillary and the DNC, and improperly used in FISA COURT for surveillance of my campaign. WITCH HUNT!

That came after Trump opened the doors for every lawyer in America to request a retrial for anyone who was ever convicted by the FBI:

Andrew McCabe FIRED, a great day for the hard working men and women of the FBI – A great day for Democracy. Sanctimonious James Comey was his boss and made McCabe look like a choirboy. He knew all about the lies and corruption going on at the highest levels of the FBI!

It's very unusal for a leader to claim that his own national intelligence force is corrupt "at the highest levels" after firing both leaders.  That makes every case they ever worked on (thousands) now questionable – imagine how many Russian that were convicted of crimes, not to mention the 13 Russians that were recently indicted – can now make a case that the President himself said the FBI was an untruthful, corrupt organization whose word could not be trusted.  

Image result for Cambridge AnalyticaBut that's not what made the Nasdaq drop 100 points overnight.  That was a different scandal, also involving the President (of course) and his campaign propaganda firm (founded by Steve Bannon), Cambridge Analytica, involving a fake personality test that targeted likely Trump voters and fooled them into revealing their personal information AND the personal information of their contacts – 50M people in total.

The EU’s justice chief Vera Jourova tweeted the news of the leak was “horrifying, if confirmed” and that “we don’t want this in the EU.” The EU commissioner will travel to the U.S. this week and said she “will seek further clarifications from #Facebook to understand this problem better.”  Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, a Democratic member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, went so far as to press for Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook’s chief executive, to appear before the panel to explain what the social network knew about the misuse of its data “to target political advertising and manipulate voters.”

Image result for Cambridge Analytica trump

The fallout from the reports added to questions Facebook was already confronting over the use of its platform by those seeking to spread Russian propaganda and fake news. The social media giant has grappled with the criticism over the issue for much of the past year, and struggled to keep public opinion on its side.  Jonathan Albright, research director at the Tow Center for Digital Journalism at Columbia University, wrote that the lack oversight and transparency into what sort of data Facebook collected on its users meant that the company’s platform could continue to be exploited.  “Unethical people will always do bad things when we make it easy for them and there are few — if any — lasting repercussions,” Mr. Albright said.

Image result for Cambridge Analytica russiaThe Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that Special Counsel Robert Mueller has requested that a data analytics company called Cambridge Analytica turn over internal documents as part of its investigation into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia during the 2016 election.  This story is specifically about how team Trump, with the help of this data company, might have facilitated Russia’s meddling in the US presidential election and likely explains Trump's sudden lashing out against Meuller – as he gets a lot closer to the truth of the matter.

What's at stake here is the future of FaceBook and other internet companies that turn you and your data into a commodity that they sell to anyone willing to pay for it.  There's virtually no oversight and think of how many times you are asked for your password and your personal information in a daily basis and then consider that every page you view, every item you buy, every ad you click on – is noted and tracked by these "free" services and turned into saleable data.  It's not something they can stop doing – IT'S THEIR ENTIRE BUSINESS MODEL!  

Half the people on the planet (over 3Bn) have facebook accounts so this is not just a US and UK issue and it's not just Facebook (FB) they will be looking at and passing regulations about.  That's why Facebook is down 4.25% this morning and Google (GOOGL) is down 1.25% and Amazon (AMZN) is down 1% and it's not going to stop here – there will be hearnings and investigations that drag on for months and will place a headwind on tech.

So it's going to be an interesting week as we're forced to re-evaluate the true value of some of our tech titans with the Fed meeting on Wednesday and Powell's first conference as Chairman right after.  

We also have some fun early earnings releases that will give us our first look at Q1, which seems like it was disappointing for retailers, in the very least:

Be careful out there and – change your password!  

 


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  1. Good Morning.


  2. Good morning all!

    CSIQ up with great earnings this morning. Q4 eps $1.01 per share, 2017 eps up 50% over 2016. One of my faves.


  3. Phil

    Is there any trade on T or TWX with the trial going on?

     Thank  you


  4. Took early gains on /RB this morning. Back in 1x at 1.95


  5. Phil/FB/GOOGL

    GOOD MORNING?

    “Hearings and investigations for months”

    I am not so sure. It seems they stopped selling the data at some point and it was the data they had sold earlier that is in question.

    Now, I am not on FB and neither am I their fan…for the exact reason.

    But do you think this will impact earnings or is it a one day/one week PR related issue. Somehow, I cannot envision millions stopping using the site based on what we heard.

    So, is it or is not time to sell some puts into the excitement?


  6. Good morning!  

    What craziness with FB, down 5.4% now.  /NQ holding 6,950 so far and we're still miles off the lows so it's really not very weak, considering.  More important to watch the S&P around 2,750 as that's the 50 dma it failed and NYSE is falling further away from 13,000 and even below the Must Hold at 12,800 so – NOT GOOD there.  

    The Nas still has a very long way to go to catch up to the others on the downside and, since this news has a sweeping effect on many Nas companies and since analysts will only this week begin downgrading based on data concerns – /NQ is still my favorite short below 6,950 with tight stops or 6,975 or back at 7,000 but I can't see that happening.

    CSIQ/Jet – My 2nd favorite solar play.  Was in our portfolios last year but we missed it this year. 

    T/QC – I didn't see any arbs I liked on those, just a stay away with all the swirling uncertainty.  

    /RB/Jeff – Watch the Dollar – it's weak at 89.50 and may break lower.  

    FB/Maya – Well if they stopped selling data then they'll have less data earnings and if they said they did but they didn't – things can turn ugly.  I don't think people will stop using them but I do think there will be oversight and that oversight will cost money and impact their margins to some extent.  Anyway, the point is you can not assume the infinite expansion (and other countries are really going to freak out) that's baked into FB's $500Bn valuation on $40Bn in sales and $16Bn in profit (p/e 31).   If they start being valued as a normal company with a normal p/e – they can lose value even if they make more profits.  

    As to selling puts – no, I wouldn't bet against them.  I just wouldn't pay $175 to own them nor will I consider them a great deal at $150 but MAYBE around $125 they will be interesting.

    Meanwhile, worry more about the whole market selling off as the Nas breaks technicals.  


  7. Phil / CVS – Is there anyway to search for past comments on CVS or any stock in particular? I know you've commented on them, but can't find any in my external notes. Thinking they bottom around $60 – if this weakness continues… Thanks, Eric


  8. ~~ TSLA

    Tesla: Goldman Sachs reiterated Sell rating this morning, cautious on production and Q1 deliveries . 


  9. Hello

    Can anyone point me to the latest adjustment to the OOP portfolio? Thank you for your time!

    regards


  10. ~~mikezuela

    great. Thank you!!

    regards


  11. ~~HL -6.2% (to acquire three high-grade Nevada gold mines with the acquisition of Klondex Mines).

    Used weakness to sell some Jan 2019 $3 puts for .35.


  12. FB / Cambridge-

    This is a (long) article from a year ago talking about the beginnings of Cambridge Analytics.  FB closed the initial loophole the company exploited in 2012 ('likes' were initially public by default).  But to Phil's point, who else is FB selling this data to (or who else is exploiting FB users) & how bad will it get if they have to limit or stop selling the personal data (its what FB does!!!)

    https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/mg9vvn/how-our-likes-helped-trump-win


  13. Sorry could not post the lines today! Still busy conferencing in Boston!


  14. CVS/Eric – You can try google searching "Philstockworld: CVS" or use the search box on the top left of this page which should include comments.  I have an admin comment search that lets me look for "CVS/", which would be a likely answer to a question but here's the best summary:

    Submitted on 2016/05/03 at 1:13 pm

    CVS/Shear – These guys aren't cheap considering they are Coke and Pepsi with WBA, who have half as many stores but 40% more employees so it's service vs prices and I wouldn't want to guess the winner there.  

    Submitted on 2016/10/18 at 1:21 pm

    CVS/Selozi – I like WBA better but neither one of them are cheap enough to interest me.  For a watch list – sure, if they get 10-20% cheaper, I can get excited but not at these levels.  

    Submitted on 2016/11/08 at 10:47 am

    CVS/Options – Ever since WBA formed, I've pretty much decided RAD and CVS are essentially doomed.  Boots really has it together in Europe and they are spending big to revamp Walgreens over here and it will cost Billions for CVS and RAD to start catching up, which will impact earnings, etc.  Actually, RAD already gave up and is being swallowed by WBA as well, which does not bode well for CVS.

    Submitted on 2017/02/02 at 11:20 am

    CVS/8800 – Anyone who is not WBA is screwed.  

    So I never liked them between $80 and $100 and, even at $75, I wanted to wait for the $60s but, with the pressure from WBA, I don't even like them at $65 very much and the AET merger is interesting but will cost more than they gain at first so I'd still rather wait until the combined company reports (if it goes through).  

    FB/EMike – Who indeed?


  15. Selling FNSR Jan 2019 $15 puts for 1.65 looks like an interesting play.


  16. Phil,

    Are you still holding your /rb and /cl shorts from the weekend? 


  17. Is FTR going to hold 7?

    What a POS!!!!


  18. March 19, 2018 09:55 ET (13:55 GMT)

    DJ Frontier Comm Price Target Cut to $10.00/Share From $16.00 by Morgan Stanley


  19. HL/Albo – saw that this morning, too. Considering a full buy/write play.


  20. MU/Phil – earnings this week. Do you think they can possibly justify recent rise/hold through earnings?


  21. Scott – Just looking to bring in some cash by selling puts on stocks Id like to buy at prices I'd like to pay.  Full buy/write would probably work well.  I think buying FNSR below 14 is a gimme.

     

     


  22. Shorts/Japar – Only my /KC and /NGV8 longs, which is the same as almost any weekend (if they haven't popped) and the /NQ shorts we just put on (wheee! already!) 

    What to expect from the new Fed dot plot on interest rates

    Uncertainty is the biggest headwind facing the market, money manager Douglas Gordon says

    Russia Is This Week’s Emerging-Market Focus as the G-20 Meets on TradeEmerging-market investors are bracing for further fallout from allegations Russia was behind a nerve-agent attack in the U.K., overshadowing an election that’s expected to extend Vladimir Putin’s tenure as the Kremlin’s longest-serving leader since Josef Stalin. Elsewhere, traders will be rooting for Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers to find ways to avoid a global trade war when they meet in Argentina on Monday and Tuesday, while Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting should provide guidance on the path of U.S. monetary policy. Bloomberg Economics estimates a trade war could chop $470 billion from the global economy by 2020.

    US Ends Formal Economic Talks With China Ahead Of Trade Wars

    China Unexpectedly Names Yi Gang As Next Central Bank Chief

    This political-risk gauge just hit a 15-year high — and here’s what it means for the stock market

    Congress Braces for Battle Over Massive Spending BillParty leaders begin setting terms of debate on Obamacare subsidies, immigration enforcement, tax provisions and infrastructure.

    Bitcoin Battered To Fresh Lows After Twitter Joins Crypto Ad Ban

    Bitcoin: Not 'Just A Correction' Anymore, The Bubble Is Bursting, For Now 

    The Next Housing Crisis: A Historic Shortage of New HomesFewer new houses are being built in America than at almost any time before; ‘It’s a good time to be here in Grand Rapids, if you can get a house’.

    Death of Iran's Nuclear Deal Could Set Oil Bulls Loose

    This 3-D printed electric car costs $7,500 and took three days to make

    Goldman reiterates bearish Tesla outlook, expects Q1 deliveries to disappoint

    • Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA-1.8% premarket after Goldman Sachs reiterates its Sell rating and $205 price target, saying data points so far suggest Q1 deliveries will prove disappointing.
    • "We believe the company is tracking below its 2018 Model S/X guidance of approx. 100K units (an implied 25,000 per quarter)," Goldman says. "Further, while monthly Model 3 deliveries are showing sequential improvement, we estimate that they will fall well short of consensus expectations."
    • Goldman foresees a slow ramp for the Model 3 and expects TSLA shares to "de-rate" as targets are pushed out.
    • UPS's entire central London fleet will soon be made up of electric vehicles, marking the "beginning of the end" of what the company called reliance on the internal combustion engine.
    • UPS's new "intelligent smart grid" will stagger when delivery trucks charge, solving the problem of needing to recharge a large number of vehicles simultaneously without having to pay for an expensive power supply upgrade.

     

    China and Germany agree to work on steel overcapacity following US tariffs

    U.S. retailers urge Trump against tariffs

    • Retailers across the U.S. have sent President Trump a letter urging him not to impose massive tariffs on goods imported from China, which could target more than $60B in duties on products ranging from electronics to apparel, footwear and toys.
    • "Applying any additional broad-based tariff as part of a Section 301 action would worsen this inequity and punish American working families with higher prices on household basics," the letter stated.
    • Trade associations also publicly pushing back include the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the National Retail Federation and the Information Technology Industry Council.

    Canadian Solar jumps after beating Q4 earnings, shipment guidance

    • Canadian Solar (CSIQ +6.6%) surges after Q4 earnings top expectations, revenues rise 66% Y/Y and solar shipments exceed company guidance.
    • CSIQ says Q4 solar module shipments totaled 1.83 GW, slightly lower than 1.87 GW in Q3 but beating guidance of 1.72-1.82 GW, and gross margin was 19.7%, compared to 17.5% in Q3 and Q4 guidance of 16.5%-18.5%.
    • CSIQ issues upside guidance for Q1, seeing revenues of $1.37B-$1.4B vs. $1.22B analyst consensus estimate, and expects total solar module shipments of 1.3-1.35 GW, including 65 MW for its own utility-scale solar power projects; it foresees Q1 gross margin of 10%-12%, which reflects the impact of lower margin U.S. solar projects already sold in the quarter.
    • For the full year, CSIQ sees revenues of $4.4B-$4.6B vs. $3.98B consensus, and expects total module shipments of 6.6-7.1 GW.

    WSJ: Grubhub, Yelp announcing partnership expansion today

    • WSJ reports that GrubHub (NYSE:GRUB) and Yelp (NYSE:YELP) will announce extended partnerships today that will double the number of included U.S. restaurants to 80K.
    • The deal completes GrubHub’s $288M acquisition of Yelp’s Eat24 restaurant delivery directory. 
    • Yelp will get an undisclosed cut of each GrubHub order placed through its website and app. 
    • GrubHub CEO Matt Maloney says the increased scale will allow Grubhub to eventually cut delivery fees since drivers can make multiple deliveries in one trip. 
    • Maloney: “I see a point where we could conceivably have extremely low if not free delivery for consumers.” 
    • GrubHub shares are down 2.1% premarket.  
    • Previously: Yum Brands and Grubhub announce strategic partnership (Feb. 8)

    Facebook Becomes Higher Risk 

    Facebook(FB) Ignites Debate Over Third-Party Access to User DataIt says that a firm kept data for years despite saying records were destroyed.

    Facebook(FB) is facing its biggest test ever — and its lack of leadership could sink the company

    Google to convert product searches into cash

    • Google (GOOGGOOGL) is teaming up with retailers including Target (NYSE:TGT), Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Costco (NASDAQ:COST) and Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA) on a new program called Shopping Actions, Reuters reports.
    • In exchange for search listings and linking to loyalty programs, the companies will pay Google a piece of each purchase.
    • According to analysts, the current default choice for many consumers is a Google search that ends with a purchase on Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).

     

    • Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZNintroduces the GameOn cloud service that helps developers easily add leaderboards, competitions, invites, and giveaways into games.
    • GameOn developers can also choose from certain products on Amazon’s e-commerce platform to offer as a prize.
    • GameOn uses the AWS cloud platform but like Alexa and Dash doesn’t fall under the AWS umbrella in a reporting sense.
    • Last week, Microsoft announced a new cloud gaming division. The company previously acquired PlayFab, a cloud-based gaming service that helps developers integrate tournaments and leaderboards.  
    • Amazon shares are down 1.1%.
    • Previously: Microsoft launches cloud gaming division, offers $250K CPU bug bounty (March 15)
    • Nomura Instinet reaffirms its Neutral rating on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and drops its FY18 iPhone unit sales forecast from 226M to 221M (consensus: 224M).
    • Analyst Jeffrey Kvaal says demand checks “suggest little improvement in iPhone demand in 2018” and supply chain “downticks suggest iPhone expectations have yet to bottom.” 
    • Kvaal says AT&T’s BOGO iPhone X promo didn’t do well and was retracted after two weeks. 
    • But Apple isn’t the only smartphone brand hurting. The analyst says preorders for Samsung’s (OTC:SSNNFOTC:SSNLF) Galaxy S9 are down 30%. 
    • Price target: $175, a 2% downside to Friday’s close. 
    • Apple shares are down 0.9% to $176.38.  
    • Several Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) screen suppliers traded sharply lower overnight, including Samsung (OTC:SSNLF), Sharp (OTCPK:SHCAF), LG Display (NYSE:LPL) and Japan Display (OTCPK:JNNDF), following a report from Bloomberg stating the tech giant was making displays of its own.
    • Apple has made a "significant investment in the development of next-generation MicroLED screens" at a facility near its California headquarters, but consumers will "probably have to wait a few years before seeing the results."

    This Is What The CIA's Venture Capital Fund Is Investing In Now


  23. That's a quick $1,000 per contract back at /NQ 6,900 – don't be greedy – it's bound to be bouncy (30 points) all the way back to 6,930 just to be weak! 

    FTR/Jabob – How much are you willing to sell me?

    Key points from Frontier’s outlook

    During its recent 4Q17 earnings conference call, Frontier’s management provided its guidance for 2018. Frontier’s management anticipates adjusted FCF (free cash flow) to be approximately $800.0 million in 2018. The company anticipates capital spending to be in the range of $1.00 billion to $1.15 billion in 2018. Additionally, management is confident that the company can achieve adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) of about $3.6 billion by the end of 2018 through improved operating metrics and cost-cutting.

     

    Additionally, management expects cash taxes of less than $25.0 million, cash pension and OPEB (other post-employment benefits) of approximately $150.0 million, as well as interest expenses of about $1.5 billion in full-year 2018.

    MU/Scott – A bit expensive for me now but an old favorite I certainly wouldn't bet against.  


  24. I've got a feeling the market is getting short this week.


  25. Wow, bustin' lower!  

    Look how far out of predicted range we are already:


  26. 2.5% drop in a day is a big move for an index and, so far, that's not holding.

    This is why SQQQ is our focus short.


  27. I like QLD a little better than SQQQ with the 2x decay in there working for you as well.


  28. Last week I added a LABD (3X Bear Biotech) as a hedge. 

    Took off 1/3 up 17%.


  29. scottmi – MU – Believe the upside is priced in for the near term, everything will depend on guidance. So might have some retrace/profit taking for a few weeks before the upward march.


  30. MU – read a few notes that 2Q2018 server memory demand is increasing driven by China. This is offset by seasonal weakness in mobile memory demand for the next 2Qs. 





  31. /NQ, picked up a few longs at 6850




  32. Same here jeffdoc

     

    Long NQ at 2850


  33. Good call Jeff, should be bouncy (35 points is weak).  

    State – I hope you mean 6,850.


  34. I'll go long Naz at 2850 too…


  35. Yes. Phil. 6850 :)


  36. VIX woke up:


  37. get used to VIX being up


  38. Phil or anyone – how highly do currencies correlate the way Phil likes to correlate the indices and buy or short the laggard? For example today Euro, Pound, Peso, Franc all up but not Aussie, does buy the laggard make sense in this context?


  39. MU/lerner – thanks..


  40. What is the /NQ stop?


  41. Out of NQ at 6860 back in at 6836


  42. Currencies/Mr M – Those are too crazy for me to play – so many factors.  I'll play the Dollar when it's too low but even that's tough to call.

    Wow, here's -500 on the Dow – when we fall, we fall! 

    /NQ/Ravi – Stop when it's not funny anymore!  At the moment, I'd say 6,850 would be a good stop line.  The fall to 6,800 is 250 so 50-point bounces off that line.  Dow 25,500 makes 100-point bounces off that line, /ES 2,700 gets 10-point bounces and failing the weak bounce means maybe another leg lower. 

    All looks like falling knives at the moment:


  43. Planning on DD NQ to lower base (currently 6836) if it goes further down. Looking for DD entry point ?


  44. I see a lot of poker players on this board today.

    I am fishing for a armchair trade ETE sell the Jan19 13/15 p/c for about 2.65 and buy the stock for 14.40 to 14.45. Brings a relaxing combined 2.4% per month.


  45. Entry/State – I would play more so with tight stops if lines fail (25 lines on /NQ) as there's a bit of panic at the moment.  As Yodi notes, poker…

    Looks like we found a bit of support at 24,500, 2,700, 6,825 and 1,555.

    Bounce from 25,000 to 24,500 is 100 points to 24,600 (weak) and 24,700 (strong)

    Bounce from 2,760 to 2,700 is 12 so 2,712 is weak and 2,724 is strong

    Bounce from 7,100 to 6,850 is 30 points but we know /NQ likes the 25s so I'd want to see 6,875 (weak) and 6,900 (strong) 

    Bounce from 1,600 to 1,550 is 10 so 1,560 (weak) and 1,570 (strong).


  46. Yeah.. out NQ at 2850.. taking the side lines for the moment.. I just feeling a bid bold as I did well on my which I held NQ short over teh weekend.. No point of pressing my luck too hard I guess..


  47. CORRECTION:  I was just feeling a bid bold as I did well on my NQ short which I held over the weekend.. No point of pressing my luck too hard I guess..


  48. sobering to compare VTI to virtually all other positions I've held in last few years. lots of laggards.


  49. I like gold going on a five year run

    http://heartlandpreciousmetals.com


  50. NPR: Uber Suspends Self-Driving Tests After Pedestrian Is Killed In Arizona. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwjJrR0DY


  51. you can track greencoin now on the cheddur app. It's a pretty good app for tracking crypto prices on the phone. Im "seachris" if you want to "follow" me on there.


  52. Wise move State, weak bounce failing already though.

    Gold/BDC – I wonder if that would finally help ABX?  crying

    Uber/Jet – Well that was bound to happen.  Now I'll be interested to see how it's handled by courts and media.  Self-driving cars WILL kill people, just hopefully less than humans do…  If we can't act like grown-ups and accept that, we'll never get to adopt the technology.

    Greencoin/BDC – Weren't you going to call me to discuss?


  53. Phil and everyone:  any thoughts/reactions to this evaluation of FTR?

     https://seekingalpha.com/article/4154094-frontier-communications-potential-shareholder-returns-next-decade


  54. FTR/John – good article, and some interesting comments, too. Glad I limited FTR to a bit under 2% of portfolio. Yeah, may be 2% dead money for a while. I am not excited about the author's suggestion that management may declare bankruptcy as a debt-management tool.


  55. John,

    Interesting article. Phil did name a play on FTR just the other day and pulled that stock apart. Possible we can pull it up again.


  56. FTR/John – It's a phone company, that's how they work.  "Assuming they need to direct all of free cash flow towards debt" is just the sort of idiotic assumption junior analysts make.  They are not paying 18% on their debt, that's just the price demanded by new buyers to take their bonds off your hands since it has since been downgraded.  As the guy notes, their avg interest is 8.4%.  The author does not "believe" the statement of the CEO that the Cap-Ex is non-recurring and then extrapolates off his non-belief.  

    And yes, this is a long-term hold stock – the way T was in the 50s or VZ in the 70s or TWC in the 80s – it's very expensive to build out phone networks and it's a long-slow payback cycle that rewards only the patient.  

    Meanwhile, in our LONG-term Portfolio, our FTR position is this:

    FTR Frontier Comms. Corp. 2500 1/2/2018 76 $17,875 $7.15 $-0.20 $7.15     $6.95 $-0.70 $-500 -2.8% $17,375
    Short Call 2020 17-JAN 8.00 CALL [FTR @ $6.95 $-0.70] -25 1/3/2018 (669) $-3,125 $1.25 $0.45     $1.70 $0.00 $-1,125 -36.0% $-4,250
    Short Put 2020 17-JAN 8.00 PUT [FTR @ $6.95 $-0.70] -25 1/3/2018 (669) $-10,000 $4.00 $-0.60     $3.40 $0.32 $1,500 15.0% $-8,500

    So we bought them for $7.15 and we sold $8 puts and calls for $5.25 so our net cost of the stock was $1.90 and, if we are "forced" to double down at $8, our average cost will be $4.95 and then, in 2022, we will sell a few more Dollars worth of puts and calls and our basis will be zero so cry me a river if the stock is not going up – I COULD CARE LESS!

    You don't have to play a stock only because it's going up – sometimes you can just buy a stock so you can rent out puts and calls to make an income – it's called being the house and not the gambler…


  57. could be great for the lucky ones who waited to start buying at 7 as opposed to 60!


  58. Seriously ! ?

    Drug stocks in the red on as Trump mulls suing pharma firms over opioid crisis

    The market's down day notwithstanding, drug makers who have even a limited exposure to opioids are under pressure after President Trump commented that he is "considering" suing said firms over their role in the crisis. He made the comments during a speech in New Hampshire.

    Selected tickers: (INSY -0.5%)(MNK -5.7%)(ENDP -4.7%)(DEPO -5%)(TEVA -2.6%)(MYL -2.4%)(ABC -3.9%)(MCK -2.8%)(JNJ -3%)(PFE -1.6%)(AGN -2.2%)(PRGO -2.9%)(ABBV -2%)


  59. Phil:  Thank you for taking the time to read the FTR article and react.


  60. I second john's thank you!


  61. Lucky/Jabob – Well if you bought 100 at $60 ($6,000) and 100 at $30 ($3,000) and 200 at $15 ($3,000) that's an average of $30 for 400 ($12,000) less at least $4 worth of calls x 800 ($3,800) is $8,200 for 800 ($10.25) and then you go 800 more at $7 ($5,600) is $13,800 for 1,600 shares is $8.62 and then sell the $8 puts and calls for $5.25 is $8,400 so now net $5,400 for 1,600 shares is $3.375/share and called away at $8 would be great and your net entry now is no more than your net entry at $60 but now you have 16x more shares at 1/2 the current price.

    If you are going to stick with a stock and stick to the plan then you should be THRILLED when it gets cheaper but, if you are going to hate being in it and curse it out, then you should have damned well stopped out with a 20% ($1,200) loss two years ago and been done with it.  

    Big bounce into the close but still a lot of damage was done.


  62. Market up big AH. Is this some conspiracy against retail investors?


  63. Jelu…I see NAS100 at 6855 ..previous close was above 7000 and todays low was around 6820.   Am I missing something?  


  64. Never mind… seeing the AH move – up to 6918 now.  Lets see if it sticks or sells off tomorrow at the EU market open


  65. I picked up front week QQQ calls.

    I'm now hedging my hedges…. this is when things get squirrelly for me


  66. Learner, I just saw /ym up 100 from the close. Going back down now.


  67. Phil/call, let me know what your Tuesday is like


  68. ARNA…..boom.


  69. Why Process Is U.S. Health Care’s Biggest Problem



  70. NYC launches investigation into Kushner Cos. false filings


  71. Mueller pens Trump in as he slips restraints elsewhere



  72. U.S. expected to impose up to $60 billion in China tariffs by Friday: sources


  73. Medicaid is rural America’s financial midwife


  74. Trump’s High-Tech Dirty Tricksters





  75. 1 sentence that explains the wacky and super dysfunctional world of Donald Trump






  76. Apple grabs two-year lead in 3D sensing race


  77. Border wall, Hudson River project hold up spending bill


  78. Good morning! 

    This Trump stuff is heating up fast, people seem oblivious. 

    Futures ticking up a bit.  Also the tariff thing, people in the US don't seem to understand what a big deal this is to the rest of the World.

    Any time after 10:30, BDC…


  79. ‘Why I’m Leaving the GOP’


  80. Europe’s Planned Digital Tax Heightens Tensions With U.S.