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Trade Won Tuesday – China Gives Up, Trump Wins – America is Great!

What total insanity!  

Now China's Xi gave a speech last night promising foreign companies greater access to China’s financial and manufacturing sectors, pledging Beijing’s commitment to further economic liberalization.  In a speech that officials had billed as a major address, Mr. Xi said Tuesday that plans are under way to accelerate access to the insurance sector, expand the permitted business scope for foreign financial institutions and reduce tariffs on imported automobiles and ownership limits for foreign car companies.

Though these were vague statements, the markets instantly reacted as if the Trade War ended and we flew back to the highs that we lost yesterday afternoon (still not strong bounces).  There's nothing really to do but sit back and see what sticks but, far from a victory for Trump, Xi took the time to criticize the US President and his policies.  As noted in the Wall Street Journal:

“In a world aspiring for peace and development, the Cold War and zero-sum mentality look even more out of place.” Mr. Xi told the Boao Forum, a government-backed gathering of business and political leaders on the tropical island of Hainan.

“Putting oneself on a pedestal or trying to immunize oneself from adverse developments will get nowhere,” he said.

Many of the initiatives Mr. Xi offered up have been previously proposed. That, along with the lack of definite schedules for action, drew some skeptical reviews from foreign business executives and Chinese researchers alike.  “We have every intention to translate the measures into reality sooner rather than later,” Mr. Xi said, though he didn’t provide a clearer timetable for those or the other measures announced.

Image result for trump trade xi cartoonIf Trump is smart (debateable), he'll thank Xi and move on – WITHOUT declaring victory.  Only by stressing cooperation can we back off the cliff of this Trade War but, of course, the cooperation Xi envisions is essentially Globalization – the very thing the Trump Administration and their media lackeys have been working hard to vilify in 2018.  China, of course, knows this and seeks to usurp the US's previous position as the Global Leader in Trade and Commerce by acting like the adult in the room.

Meanwhile, Trump has much bigger fish to fry as the offices of his personal attorny, Steven Cohen, were raided by the FBI last night, presumbly over Cohen's claim that he paid off Stormy Daniels to stop her from talking about the Presidential Penis which may have been an illegal campaign contribution but Trump claims he didn't know anything about it, which clearly makes it an ethical violation (attorneys may not act on their client's behalf without their client's knowledge) so, either way – laws were broken.

Related imageOf course, this is like taking out Tom Hagen (Corleone's right-hand man) in the Godfather – he knows way too much about the family business and where all the bodies are buried and Trump really can't function without him at this point.  

It's difficult to run a vast, criminal empire by yourself – even if you do have sons to help you.  You need a sharp legal mind who knows all the deep, dark family secrets to keep the Feds at bay and to silence your enemies with threats and intimidation.  Take away that guy and the head of the family becomes vulnerable…

Meanwhile, the markets were weakening long before Trump declared a Trade War and vague promises by Xi don't really end things so we're still watching those bounce lines to see if we make any progress and, as they were yesterday (because we're all pumped-up again in the Futures), they are:

  • Dow 23,800 (weak) and 24,200 (strong)
  • S&P 2,640 (weak) and 2,684 (strong)
  • Nasdaq 6,500 (weak) and 6,700 (strong)
  • NYSE 12,450 (weak) and 12,600 (strong)
  • Russell 1,520 (weak) and 1,540 (strong)

We're actually a bit stronger than yesterday, when the S&P was all red and the Dow had not made the strong bounce but now, like yesterday, we'll see if they can hold it FOR AN ENTIRE DAY – WITHOUT GOING UNDER and THEN it might be time to go fishing through our Watch List, looking for bargains. 

Until and unless the NYSE clears it's must-hold line at 12,800 (now 12,500), you can't call this a rally anyway and the Russell is a long way from clearing 1,584 at 1,533 – even with the 19-point pop in the Futures.  The Dollar is still way down at 89.30, down a full 1% from Friday's close – making the market's gains even less impressive, since they are priced in Dollars.  

That's got Oil (/CL) back near our shorting line at $65 but Brent (/BZ) is also testing $70 so we can't short oil if /BZ is over $70 but, at this line ($64.75) it is worth a poke with tight stops above OR if /BZ goes over $70 as either a bounce in the Dollar or a simple loss of momentum (or a poor inventory report tomorrow) can send oil lower fast.

 


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  1. MW L Brands stock price target cut to $42 from $48 at MKM Partners 

    Apr 10, 2018 07:39:00 (ET)


  2. ALB stock price cut to $95 from $112 by Citi

    4/10 20:56



  3. What are markets cheerful about? China just retreated strategically – no timeline for anything and they know that Trump has the attention span of a squirrel (and greater worries at home) so nothing will change in the long run. They are playing 3 dimensional chess against someone playing chutes and ladders! And now we have Trump ready to take his anger on Assad and Mueller. Nothing good can come out of either.


  4. Hi Phil. Considering the ME political situation: Israeli strikes on Syria, Trump’s threats, the abandonment of the Iran deal, and the relocation of the embassy to Jerusalem; when does this begin to spook the market?

    Will it take US airborne infantry landing before anyone takes heed?


  5. Thanks for the laugh SJL/ Its a great way to start the day!


  6. Good Morning.


  7. Good morning Phil,

    With your travel this week are you planning on having a webinar tomorrow?


  8. LB/Jabob – That's OK as our target is $45 in two years. 

    Speaking of stocks you can pick up cheap!   Our March entry on LB is even cheaper now:

    Long Call 2020 17-JAN 35.00 CALL [LB @ $38.23 $0.00] 10 3/1/2018 (652) $12,690 $12.69 $-4.49 n/a     $8.20 - $-4,490 -35.4% $8,200
    Short Call 2020 17-JAN 45.00 CALL [LB @ $38.23 $0.00] -10 3/1/2018 (652) $-8,500 $8.50 $-3.95     $4.55 - $3,950 46.5% $-4,550
    Short Put 2020 17-JAN 35.00 PUT [LB @ $38.23 $0.00] -5 3/1/2018 (652) $-3,000 $6.00 $0.95     $6.95 - $-475 -15.8% $-3,475

    ALB/Dave – I don't know why they are so hated, do you have a link to the analysis?

    Cheer/StJ – It's becoming more and more clear how Trump was elected as it seems American's have the same simplistic, short attention span view of things that he does – even market "investors".  The way we fly up and down on non-event news now is amazing yet no one seems to mind…

    Spook/Roamer – This market believes everything will work out and, if it doesn't, the Fed will save them.  Meanwhile, I didn't even mention the CBOE scoring of the budget (see yesterday's news) which says we have DOOMED ourselves with debt but, again, no one seems to care at all.  I think if Russia stormed Washington the markets would dip but then quickly recover when Putin promises to "drain the swamp" and "Make Amerika Great Again".

    Webinar/Rperi – No Webinar.  I'm not even sure I'll put in much of a day as the conference I'm here for starts tomorrow and, apparently, I'm on some panel no one bothered mentioning to me! 

    Back to "normal" next week.


  9. I like 2,650 for a short poke on /ES (tight stops over) and that's lined up with 24,350 on /YM, 6,575 on /NQ and 1,535 on /RTY. /CL at $64.89 with /BZ at $70.16 but I'm willing to play short here on /CL and risk a $120 loss if it pops $65.  Dollar 89.25.


  10. US Futures Spike As Xi Pushes Globalization Agenda.

    • Stocks open with a powerful rally, as China's Pres. Xi helped soothe trade war fears with plans to further open up the country's economy, including significantly reducing import tariffs for automobiles, improving market access for foreign investors, and better enforcing intellectual property rights of foreign firms.
    • "If you look at President Xi's speech, it was conciliatory and that feels like a de-escalation," Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR, tells CNBC. "That's what the market wants."
    • The Dow opened ~400 points higher and is now +1.4%, while S&P +1.1% and Nasdaq +1%; European markets are moderately higher, with Germany's DAX +0.9%, U.K.'s FTSE +0.6% and France's CAC +0.4%, and in Asia, Japan's Nikkei closed +0.5% and China's Shanghai Composite surged +1.7%.
    • In the U.S., Facebook is little changed ahead of CEO Mark Zuckerberg's scheduled testimony before the U.S. Senate Judiciary and Commerce committees this afternoon.
    • Gains are broad based, with growth-sensitive sectors such as energy (+2%), financials (+1.5%), materials (+1.5%), tech (+1.5%), industrials (+1.4%) and consumer discretionary out in front, while defensive groups such as consumer staples (+0.5%), telecom services (+0.3%) and utilities (+0.1%) lag.
    • Also, the U.S. Producer Price Index for March showed prices trending higher, which likely will reinforce the Fed's tightening bias on the belief that inflation rates are poised to pick up.
    • U.S. WTI crude oil also is sharply higher, +2.2% at $64.80/bbl, as trade war fears ease.
    • Still ahead: wholesale inventories

     

    What, Us worry?  Global Debt Jumped to Record $237 Trillion Last Year .

    Nafta Partners Seek Deal by Early May, Mexico Says.

    • Australia business conditions fell 6 points to +14 in March as confidence seemingly taking a hit from the threat of a global trade war.
    • The survey's measure of profitability eased 4 points to +14 in March, while its sales index also slipped 4 to +20; business confidence dipped 2 points to +7.
    • "The strength in business conditions and leading indicators are consistent with stronger economic growth in coming quarters and the employment index is pointing to strong jobs growth which should reduce unemployment," said Oster.

    Iran Warns U.S. Would "Regret" Pulling Out of Nuclear Deal Soon After Doing So

    • Redbook Chain Store Sales+2.9% Y/Y vs. +4.4% last week.
    • Month-to-date sales are up 3.4% Y/Y and 0.3% M/M through the April 7. April sales are expected to be up 3.4% for the full month.
    • March Producer Price Index: +0.3% vs. +0.1% consensus, +0.2% previous. +3.0% Y/Y.
    • Core PPI +0.3% vs. +0.2% consensus, +0.2% prior.

    Syria, Middle East tensions pose bigger risk for oil prices.

    Iron Ore Giant Says Miners Have Shut Gates on Adding New Supply.

    • Another legal setback? France is entitled to bring criminal proceedings against UBER's local managers for running an illegal taxi service, according to the European Court of Justice.
    • The ruling follows the court's previous decision classifying Uber as a transport service and therefore stripping it of the protections against undue national regulation that are enjoyed by digital services.
    • Reporting March operational results last night, United Airlines (NYSE:UAL) said Q1 revenue should come in at the high end of guidance, and capacity at the low end.
    • Reporting this morning, American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) sees Q1 TRASM up 3-4% vs. 2-4% previous guidance, and CASM up 3% vs. 2.5% previous guidance. Pretax margin is now guided to 4-5% vs. 2-4% previously. Full-year EPS continue to be guided to $5.50-$6.50.
    • Premarket: UAL +2.15%, AAL +1.4%, Southwest (NYSE:LUV+1.5%, Delta (NYSE:DAL+2.5%, JetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU+1.3%, Hawaiian Holdings (NASDAQ:HA+1.8%, Spirit (NASDAQ:SAVE+2%.

    Nvidia(NVDA) stock gains after Morgan Stanley says cryptocurrency weakness offers buying opportunity.

    WATT +25% on FCC certification of near field transmitter.

    • Shares of Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) are on watch after Morgan Stanley hikes it price target to $350 from $275 to rep +20% upside potential.
    • Analyst Benjamin Swinburne says the Overweight-rated streamer is still only in the early stages of penetrating large addressable markets globally, pointing to Asia in particular.
    • He also reminds that Netflix has ample pricing power in key markets.
    • Netflix is 2.71% higher to $297.80 in premarket action. The all-time high for NFLX is $333.98

    Trump attacks Mueller 'witch hunt' as WH source calls investigation 'out of control'

    Trump rips Cohen raid: 'It's a disgraceful situation, it’s a total witch hunt'.                    


  11. I trust you followed my early morning plays. Here one more contender with out further explanation

    T buy the stock and sell the May 35/36 Strangle for 1.63 your combined return 3.98% per month


  12. Just one further comment on these plays always set up the strangle first to follow by buying the stock, as the strangle is always more difficult to sell as to buy the stock. This is on all armchair trades!


  13. RB/Phil- thoughts on RB at 2.019? worth a short?


  14. This TSLA has surely no direction, one day up the next down, just like a flag in the wind.


  15. Phil / Pharm,

    What are your thought on MNK (Mallinckrodt Plc) I was looking at their financials and their P/E seems to be very cheap they also seem to have a lot of cash on their balancesheet (Not sure if they sold anything or raised cash) The PE looks very attractive and I am inclined to take a stab at it but wanted to get your thoughts as well.

    Thanks as always

    Pat


  16. /CL strong.  ERX up 8%.


  17. Thanks, Phil.  Looking forward to it.


  18. Wow, up and up we go.  Back in the green for the year if this sticks and no reason it shouldn't as both sides are willing to pretend the Trade War is over.

    We'll see if /NQ hits any resistance at 6,600 but, if not – look out above!  2,660 on /ES also should be a pause in a rational market.

    Good point on strangle first, Yodi.

    /RB/Dave – Not with oil over $65 and /BZ over $70 (now $70.50) – this market is rallying and everything is coming with it.

    TSLA/Yodi – They keep getting great press but earnings will be a nightmare. 

    MNK/Pat – Sorry, I don't follow them, no idea what their pipeline is like.  


  19. News

    21.225

    -0.175

    IMAX Corporation To Announce First-Quarter 2018 Financial Results And Host Conference Call

    Apr 10, 2018 08:30:00 (ET)
     

    NEW YORK, April 10, 2018 /PRNewswire/ — IMAX Corporation (NYSE: IMAX) today announced it will hold a quarterly conference call to discuss its first-quarter 2018 financial results on Tuesday, May 1, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. 


  20. definitely seems to be some irrational exuberance in /RB today, more so then in /CL.  Up almost 10 cents this week.  Went against Phil's advice to stay away and tried shorting at 2.0250..:(


  21. Anyone fancy arguing that DT saying Attorney-Client Privilege is dead is him actually waiving privilege :-)


  22. ~~ – NY Times reporting that Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein approved raid on President Trump lawyer's office.


  23. :)


  24. pat_swap 

     MNK you may want to look at the lawsuits they have

    Last time I looked it was over 250 just for opioids drugs

    Not sure what Pharm thinks he is the expert, but they are not a drug company.

    More like a Valeant. also look at a chart

    My 2 cents


  25. Phil – You see how everything looks better from the West? ;)




  26. Trump Keeps Breaking the Rules


  27. Opened a small position in falling knife CLDR.  Sold a few Aug 12.50 puts for $1.77.  Company has an investor day on Thursday.  Could be interesting, IMHO.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4161336-cloudera-cloudy-now

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4162011-cloudera-incredibly-cheap-sinking


  28. IMAX/Jabob – Should be a good year for them. 

    Expectations are for 0.10/share vs 0.06 last year for Q1 and whole year is expected to be 0.88 so no major reason for them to move higher unless there's a significant beat.  Last year was 0.62 though, so good progress if they are on track.

    /RB/Ult – Ouch.

    Privilege/Malsg – He sure doesn't act like a guy who's got nothing to hide, does he?

    Rosenstein/Albo – Not surprised, he's on Trump's hit list so F him I suppose he figures.  

    Better/1020 – It must be the legal weed.

    Oh no, markets acting a bit like yesterday, Dow down 200 from the highs but at least they were up 500 so still a lot of cushion.  What an insane market though…

    • Israeli’s consumer protection bureau is investigating Apple (AAPL +1.5%) for failing to disclose the throttling of some older iPhones to preserve battery life.
    • The Consumer Protection and Fair Trade Authority question Rony Friedman, Apple’s head in Israel. An Authority spokesman says it has the power to levy significant fines, but it’s still too early to discuss that possibility.
    • Apple apologized for the slowed iPhones in December, and its most recent software update includes more information on a phone’s battery use and the ability to turn off throttling.
    • In better news for Apple, Piper Jaffray’s twice-yearly Teens Survey shows that the number of teens owning an iPhone grew from 78% in the fall to 82% now. And 84% of the teens say their next phone will be an iPhone.
    • The survey includes thousands of teenagers across 40 states.
    • Apple shares are up 1.5%.
    • Piper Jaffray is out with its semi-annual survey of teenage consumers.
    • "Our spring survey has shown an uptick in teen spending, which we believe mirrors the economic expansion we are experiencing broadly. Within a teen’s wallet, food is the top priority but video games (for males) and beauty (for females) are gaining share," notes Piper analyst Erinn Murphy.
    • Notable brand winners in the Generation Z survey were Adidas (OTCQX:ADDYYOTCQX:ADDDF), Vans (NYSE:PVH), Supreme (NASDAQ:CG) and Tommy Hilfiger. Nike (NYSE:NKE) and eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) lost some mindshare compared to a year ago.
    • In the handbag category, Michael Kors (NYSE:KORS) outdistanced the Kate Spade and Coach (NYSE:TPR) brands.
    • Upper-income teens preferred Chick-fila-A, Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) and Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) over other restaurant chains.
    • In the battle for social media attention, Snapchat (NYSE:SNAP) completely dominated Instagram, Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB).
    • Sephora (OTCPK:LVMHFOTCPK:LVMUY), Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA) and Neutragena (NYSE:JNJ) all scored well in beauty.

    • Crude oil prices enjoy their strongest two-day rally in nearly a month, as optimism surges among investors that the trade dispute between the U.S. and China may be resolved without greater damage to the global economy.
    • U.S. WTI crude for May delivery now +2.5% at $64.99/bbl and June Brent crude +2.4% at $70.32/bbl.
    • “There is a lot of positive news for the recent move higher in oil,” including tensions between the U.S. and Russia and easing trade war talk with China, says Long Leaf Trading's Scott Gecas, also listing last week’s inventory report that showed a 4.6M-barrel decline in U.S. crude stocks, Middle East tension from the Syrian chemical attack and the possibility on renewed U.S. sanctions on Iran.
    • Meanwhile, news that Saudi Arabia is aiming for an $80 oil price adds to bullish sentiment around the oil market, says Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn, and that "usually, what the Saudis want, the Saudis get."
    • The Saudis want oil prices near $80 to help support the valuation of Saudi Aramco ahead of its IPO, Bloomberg reports.
    • Goldman Sachs is out with a fresh note that doubles down on the firm's Sell rating and 6-month price target of $195 on Tesla (TSLA +4.4%).
    • Analyst David Tamberrino and team expect Model 3 production at the end of Q2 to trail the 5K target by a wide margin and also see trouble on the Model S/Model X front.
    • "We believe that Model S/X demand will likely be challenged going forward with the phase-out of the US EV tax credit in 2H18 and as incremental competition launches at the same time —and we adjust our forecasts accordingly," reads the GS take on Tesla.
    • In another bit of gloom, Goldman says it expects a capital raise this year out of Tesla due to the pace of Model 3 cash burn vs. production.
    • Finally, there's the question of how long Model 3 reservation holders hang in there. "We believe there could be further pressure to reservation figures with increased cancellations as even potential early-adopters lose patience; we believe this would likely drive shares materially lower," notes GS.
    • While part of the company focuses on a bellwether antitrust trial, AT&T (T +0.2%) has provided a substantial update on its 5G technology trials.
    • The telecom had expanded testing beyond enterprise trials in Austin, Texas, to other cities, including Waco, Texas; Kalamazoo, Mich.; and South Bend, Ind.
    • In Waco, where the trials focus on small and mid-sized businesses, AT&T says it offered 5G millimeter wave service to a retail location more than 150M from the cell site that saw wireless speeds of about 1.2 Gbps. The company observed latency rates at 9-12 ms and the test supported hundreds of simultaneous connected users.
    • In Kalamazoo (small-business trial), it saw no impact on mmWave signal from rain, snow or other weather, and "earned mmWave signals can penetrate materials such as significant foliage, glass and even walls better than initially anticipated." AT&T saw gigabit-plus speeds in line-of-sight up to 900 feet away.
    • Meanwhile, in South Bend (where the trial covers small businesses and residential customers), it saw low latency across a full end-to-end 5G architecture as well as gigabit speeds in both line-of-sight and otherwise.
    • Goldman Sachs is out with a fresh note that doubles down on the firm's Sell rating and 6-month price target of $195 on Tesla (TSLA +4.4%).
    • Analyst David Tamberrino and team expect Model 3 production at the end of Q2 to trail the 5K target by a wide margin and also see trouble on the Model S/Model X front.
    • "We believe that Model S/X demand will likely be challenged going forward with the phase-out of the US EV tax credit in 2H18 and as incremental competition launches at the same time —and we adjust our forecasts accordingly," reads the GS take on Tesla.
    • In another bit of gloom, Goldman says it expects a capital raise this year out of Tesla due to the pace of Model 3 cash burn vs. production.
    • Finally, there's the question of how long Model 3 reservation holders hang in there. "We believe there could be further pressure to reservation figures with increased cancellations as even potential early-adopters lose patience; we believe this would likely drive shares materially lower," notes GS.

  29. S –  Sprint shares spike on headlines that the company and T-Mobile (TMUS) have again restarted merger talks. 


  30. SQQQ- I still have 50 short May 20 calls, should I roll to Sep 23 calls and collect another $1 or sep 24 calls to collect $0.65?


  31. S/Albo – Those guys need to do something.

    SQQQ/Dave – Why pay them $1.15 to do anything? They will give you that $1.15 premium in 38 days while rolling to the Sept $23s  adds $1 of premium but over 164 days so 0.013/day gained vs 0.03/day for the short May calls.  

    Well, for all this effort, we've only gained one green so far (/TF) with NYSE 12,540 the next likely to cross but /TF may still blow 1,540 again as it's just 1,543 so good line to watch there.

    • Dow 23,800 (weak) and 24,200 (strong)
    • S&P 2,640 (weak) and 2,684 (strong)
    • Nasdaq 6,500 (weak) and 6,700 (strong)
    • NYSE 12,450 (weak) and 12,600 (strong)
    • Russell 1,520 (weak) and 1,540 (strong)

    • BP (BP +3%) says it is teaming up with Tesla (TSLA +5.5%) to build its first battery storage project one of its 13 wind farms in the U.S. as part of a strategy to expand its renewable energy business; no financial terms are disclosed.
    • BP says TSLA will supply the 212 MW battery at its Titan 1 wind farm in South Dakota in H2 of this year, to be used to store electricity and meet demands when the wind is not blowing.
    • “Lessons from the project will enable BP to make better informed decisions when evaluating and developing battery applications in the future [and] supports BP’s broader strategy to invest half a billion dollars annually into low-carbon technologies," the company says.
    • via WSJ
    • About 20% of conventional mortgages this winter went to borrowers spending more than 45% of their monthly incomes on mortgage and other debt payments, according to the report. That's almost triple the proportion of such loans from 2016 and early 2017, and the highest ratio since the housing crisis.
    • At issue, say economists, are home prices rising at a faster pace than incomes.
    • For realtors like ReMax (NYSEARCA:REMX) and Realogy (NYSE:RLGY), it could mean the spring selling season will be a weak one.
    • For Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC) – where the amount of these high debt-ratio loans soared 73% in 2017's second half (mostly thanks to Fannie) – it might be worth remembering how they got into this government conservatorship mess in the first place

    So far, 2 up days don't equal one down day's volume:

    Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume
    Apr 10, 2018 264.27 265.76 262.98 264.74 264.74 65,175,535
    Apr 09, 2018 261.37 264.84 259.94 261.00 261.00 100,099,500
    Apr 06, 2018 263.42 265.11 258.00 259.72 259.72 179,521,200
    Apr 05, 2018 265.55 266.64 264.32 265.64 265.64 82,652,600
    Apr 04, 2018 256.75 264.36 256.60 263.56 263.56 123,715,300
    Apr 03, 2018 258.87 261.31 256.84 260.77 260.77 119,956,900
    Apr 02, 2018 262.55 263.13 254.67 257.47 257.47 186,286,300
    Mar 29, 2018 261.12 265.26 259.84 263.15 263.15 111,601,600

  32. ERX t daily high.  Trimming a piece.


  33. Climate Change Polarizes the U.S. — What Should Leaders Do?


  34. Yodi, great recommendations, thanks!



  35. FB – a lot of this-week just OTM puts and calls trading today…


  36. Advil thanks glade you like them PFE is a bit high today but filled T.

    Passed by your home town last week on the way up to Germany. Looks like you will be living one of these days in an other Country.!!!!! I prefer it to be Spain. We had a nice time there.




  37. Tariff Tough Talk


  38. CGNX – held up to a GS downgrade today… looking at Nov $45 puts @ 3.20  — Just $772 regular margin yields 68% annualized return


  39. Zuckerberg doing well so far, Nas off on huge relief rally.


  40. /CL really up


  41. Hopefully it will be a good short tomorrow. 

    I'm willing to short /RB here at $2.045 with a stop over $2.05 – don't forget API is later.  

    Wow, Senators generally going really easy on FB.


  42. FU HMNY!!!! 

    dangit!


  43. I don't know why HMNY is so hated.


  44. Phil, Can you give us some thoughts about where you see the S&P by end on April, end on May …range bound?…in decline?…slowing climbing?.unpredictable? …and any thoughts for rest of the year. I appreciate the bounce lines and your view on appropriate valuation being much lower, and the hedge advice. I believe your focus on fundamentals and market excess has been invaluable these past years and now. Thanks. Strether


  45. Good morning. I have given you in the last two mornings some TURBO CHARGED armchair trades.

    I hope you followed. I have given you WSM as a normal armchair trade, which is now working in my port with a 2.39 % per month return.

    For this morning try the TURBO C. same stock 50.48 with a return of 5.03 %, or even 6.56%. Buy stock and sell the May 47.5/50 P/C for 3.05. Combined return 5.03 % per month. Now be prepared to lose the stock! You even can raise your steak to a 50/50 straddle for 3.95 with a return of 6.56 %. Still your upper and lower protection is 53/47.

    Take in to consideration the stock went up 1.03 in one day. Yesterday was a CLOWN's up day, as we could have the Wednesday as a CLOWN's down day! Still to get the stock at 50$, where you protected down to 47 is not a bad deal. But my gut feeling is they will call for the stock, as their ex div. is 4/26, so you might get called and you only will sit with a bunch of cash, Phil's favorite war cry!!!


  46. Here some coffee and donut trades: WTI Sell vertical May put 5/4 for .50. On one option Max profit 50.00 Max loss 50.00. PM margin 56.00. Down protection 4.50. This gives me TOS this morning. In this case, if it works, it is better than playing black or red on the wheel. The worst you can lose is the commission!


  47. Another trade I found interesting

    ADS unfortunately they only go to 2019, but here my lowest play 2x Jan 19 BCS 220/190 for 16.35, 1x Sell Jan 19 190 put for 13.50, and if you inpatient you can sell 1x May strangle 195/230 for 5.27. 

    The stock is at a low, not finally through FB, and I expect the stock will go up. Possible you will have to roll the May 230 caller. But in the present situation it pays to sell short month strangles against your BCS.

    You can increase your play in relationship to the above minimum set up.


  48. Hi Yodi, yes independentism is a headache nowadays, will not prospere but in the meantime is a mess with protests, lack of governance etc….thanks god this is Europe.

    NEVER pass Barcelona again without notifying me!….regards 


  49. Turbo Charge — I very much enjoy reading your suggestions Yodi, very nice work.  While, I am getting more comfortable trading options (long way to go..) I confess, it takes me a while to digest the information, even Phil's trades rattle my head for hours.  Anyway, I am optimistic in another 1000 hours or so… I'll be able to interact more with the trade ideas.  It is my longer term plan, but wanted you to know… I do appreciate you sharing – it expands upon what Phil is teaching me. 

    However… I am digging trading futures.  You inquired about returns in a comment earlier this week or last…. I can share with the group, I am up 7% on trading Futures from Jan. 1st and this includes a 11K loss on /RB back in Feb. This was also one of the most valuable learning lessons, as I now play indexes and /RB, /CL with very tight stops with a max loss in mind before entering the trade. And, one of the biggest improvements, for me, was NOT playing the front month on most of these trades, including /RB, /CL.  I am looking forward to experiencing the relaxing cigar smoking armchair trades, including the turbo charged in the near future, if all goes as planned.   Which is simply to use this futures account to fund the options portfolio, once it reaches 20% returns, I'll begin to divert future monthly returns 50/50 into my options portfolios and use the surplus to build a larger bankroll for larger positions in the Futures market, one day! 


  50. I am currently Long  4 /NGV, 2 /NGH, 9 /SBN (feeling some pain on this one), 1 /ZLN

    Recently took profits off the table on /NGV, /NGH, /KCN, /ZLN and /SIN… And for my losses they were small, but  didn't fair well on /YM, /NQ, or /CLN

    Shout out to JeffDoc for sharing his comments on future trading recently.  It led me down the path of taking some of these profits off the table, which will produce better results with the recent dips in /NG.  Another lesson learned, no need to be greedy.  And, of cos, Phil's response to my question on Long /SIN at 12.28.      

    Disclaimer: I am so very new and do NOT recommend following along – just wanted to share that Futures have been a very good way for me to hedge my Options portfolio.  





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  57. Grass, great work! Appreciate the shout out…credit goes to Phil and the others on this board who contribute their trading insight. I’ve learned volumes here. Not being greedy and letting smaller wins has been the key for me. 



  58. Phill/  I have the following position on HMNY and loosing money on all these trades and would like your suggestion

    (1) 1000 shares bought it at the total cost of $7980.00 and loosing $5120 on this trade

    (2) Sold 2 Aug18 Strike $7.5 puts for a total of $640 and loosing $360 on this trade

    (3) Sold 10 Aug18 Strike $5 puts for a total of  $1750 and loosing $975.00 on this trade.

    Thanks.


  59. Comment content omitted because it is too long.


  60. Good morning! 

    Running a bit behind as I'm burning the candle at both ends and a bit in the middle this week.

    Imageseven-of-fine

    Today I have to cut out early for a lunch meeting so only here until 2pm which, unfortunately, is the Fed minutes.

    Trump is killing the markets this morning with some extra-insane tweeting – especially re. trying to prove he's not colluding with Russia by starting WWIII from his bed:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump

    Try reading them with this soundrack – helps a little:

    Futures giving up about half of yesterday's gains (1%) so far. 

    S&P/Streth – No change from my prediction all year, 2,640 will form up as the top of a channel that bottoms out around 2,400 (if we avoid WWIII and all-out trade war with China) and Q1 earnings should start well on Friday with Financials and large caps but, as we move into the meat of the S&P 500, cracks are likely to show that will force a bit of a revaluation and give us a shot towards 2,400, likely in May.

    Great trades Yodi, thanks! 

    Good trading Grass, thanks for sharing.  That's what it's all about, practice, learn and improve!  

    HMNY/Rookie – Re-ask in new post please.

     


  61. Phill/  Will do.  Thanks.  This Syria war, could this a distraction for the Trump Admin to get the public to focus on Syria war instead of the Cohen raid?  If the Russia investigation continues full steam ahead there might be a chance to Trump admin go to war with Syria so people won't focus on the investigation.  Your thoughts …