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Trump Tweets Oil Down to $67.50 Giving our Readers $2,000 Per Contract Wins!

I am now a Donald Trump fan!  

Yesterday morning I was interviewed on the Benzinga Pre-Market Show where our trade of the day was to short Oil (/CL) (USO) Futures at $69.50 and, during the day yesterday we got had a nice $1,500 per contract gain as oil dropped to $68 and then, this morning, as oil climbed back to $68.50, where we wanted to short again, our beloved President, Donald J. Trump tweeted out exactly what I had said yesterday afternoon at my Nasdaq interview, with the President saying:

Needless to say we are thrilled, not just with the money but with the President's ability to summarize what we say during a 5-minute interview in a single tweet – THAT'S LEADERSHIP!  Now, if the President would just put me in charge of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and stake me with the Treasury, we could pay off the National debt in no time buying and selling oil contracts.  

We wouldn't need OPEC to back down if we simply break the NYMEX and we could do that by calling their bluff and promising to sell their fake, Fake, FAKE orders for 223M barrels of oil for May delivery, which we said last Friday would be cancelled or rolled by today and, lo and behold, as of this morning, there are only 26,672 contracts left open for May delivery, representing just 26.6M barrels (90% cancelled) and that will be cut in half today, leaving the US with just 13Mb imported to Cushing at $67.50 per barrel when, earlier this month, we had "orders" for over 500M barrels at $62.50 that were canceled by the criminal NYMEX trading cartel WHO ARE UNDERMINING THE ENERGY SECURITY OF THE UNITED STATES, which happens to be TREASON!  

Well, the orders were not "cancelled" – they "roll" the orders into other months to FAKE demand there as well and this little shell game pushes the price of oil up and up and costs US Consumers Billions of Dollars at the pump every month.  In fact, this month's $5 gain x 20M barrels a day x 30 days is $3Bn we're being screwed out of in April alone.  On the whole, manipulation of this sort accounts for 50% of the price of oil or $216Bn a year just on the base oil barrels and another $216Bn on refined products – that's $432Bn a year that is being extracted from American consumers by home-grown manipulation at the NYMEX – HALF or our deficit!  If you don't believe me – just ask former Exxon CEO and former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson – who said as much to Congress.  

Click for
Chart
Current Session Prior Day Opt's
Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
May'18 68.26 68.62 67.62 67.85 08:50
Apr 20

 


-
-0.44 3069 68.29 26672 Call Put
Jun'18 68.22 68.66 67.61 67.89 08:50
Apr 20

 


-
-0.44 245721 68.33 584545 Call Put
Jul'18 67.88 68.40 67.37 67.64 08:50
Apr 20

 


-
-0.44 19750 68.08 234272 Call Put
Aug'18 67.43 67.83 66.86 67.11 08:50
Apr 20

 


-
-0.42 7527 67.53 164915 Call Put
Sep'18 66.79 67.20 66.27 66.50 08:50
Apr 20

 


-
-0.40 4228 66.90 232714 Call Put

As you can see from this morning's NYMEX strip chart, the front 4 months plus what's left of May have 1.243 BILLION barrels of open orders which is 178M barrels more than were open just a week ago.  That means that, not only was every single FAKE order from May simply transferred to longer months but they added 178,000 FAKE orders to jam the prices higher.  

The problem is it's far to easy for the manipulators to roll the contracts but, if the President allows me to run the SPR (and gives me a Treasury checkbook to cover the margin), we could have called their bluff and promised to sell them (by shorting) 200M barrels at $69.50 from the SPR and when oil drops $2 like it did a week later, we pocket $400M in profits.  The worst case is they call our bluff and buy 200M barrels of oil from the SPR for $69.50 and that puts $13.9Bn into treasury and causes a build in commercial oil inventories of 50M barrels a week for the month of May – that would be fun!  

Image result for no collusion tweetClearly, they could never do that so I could continue to make $400M a week for Mr Trump and much, much more if, for example, the President were to make more tweets like this morning's and, of course, there would be NO COLLUSION – I would just happen to make Billions of Dollars any time Trump tweets something about oil – that's the American way, right?  Certainly that's what the people who did make Billions of Dollars will be saying when questioned abou these trades.  

Have a great weekend,

- Phil

 


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  1. Good Morning

    Phil, I have this position in SQQQ:

    Bought 10 2019 $15 calls at $3.33 now $3.70

    Bought 5 2020 $20 calls at $7.17, now $2.55

    Sold 10 2020 $25 calls at $2.35, now $1.83

    What do you think a good adjustment would be?  I rolled the position down, 5 of the $20's didn't fill



  2. Draining the swamp to help the little people:

    https://www.vox.com/2018/4/20/17225564/mick-mulvaney-cfpb-payday-loan-cases

    In the agency’s first report to Congress since Mick Mulvaney took the helm in November, the CFPB said it is dropping sanctions against NDG Financial Corp, a group of 21 businesses that the agency, under President Obama, had accused of running “a cross-border online payday lending scheme” in Canada and the United States.

    “The scheme primarily involved making loans to U.S. consumers in violation of state usury laws and then using unfair, deceptive, and abusive practices to collect on the loans and profit from the revenues,” the CFPB lawyers argued in the complaint filed in the Southern District of New York in 2015.[...]

    he CFPB’s dismantling of the case against NDG is the latest example of the bureau backing off of payday loan companies accused of defrauding consumers — an industry that donated more than $60,000 to Mulvaney’s past congressional campaigns.

    There is a special place on the Fourth Circle for these people!


  3. Yes! go Trump go! Ive been stuck in this SCO short puts for some time and they're underwater haha


  4. Is energy ready to bounce:

    http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2018/04/a-bounce-for-energy.html

    Could be simply oil prices getting ahead of themselves! And energy has been a laggard the last 10 years.

    Here’s a look at one of the more remarkable stock charts of the last 20 years. This shows the relative strength of the energy sector.


  5. wow skx down 25%


  6. Good Morning and a happy April 20 to all!   :)


  7. Good morning!  

    Indexes turning down at the open, we'll see how things shake out.  GE can't save us by itself.

    Actually, AAPL is down 2.5% and nothing can save us if AAPL is selling off. 

     

    SQQQ/Grass – Well, you bought more premium than you sold so of course you are losing money.  You are the sucker who paid the premium, not the House, who sells the premium.  Hopefully you have long positions that are making some money.  2020 spreads only make you money if the Nasdaq goes down and STAYS DOWN all the way into Jan 2020 – until maybe 3 months out, the short calls will probably do better than your long calls so it's a rotten hedge unless you are simply protecting long-term plays in which case, why change the hedge?  

    The best thing you have is the Jan $15s so I'd liquidate the 5 2020 $20ss for $4.60 (not $2.55, that's crazy).  If your broker is saying $2.55, get another broker as they are robbing you!  

    So that's $2,300 and you can leave the short $25 calls (you can add 2020 long calls when the Jans expire) and that pays for most of 10 more Jan $15 calls and you can then sell 5 June $19 calls for $1 ($500) to begin to pay for the rest.  If SQQQ goes up, the June $15s can be rolled to the Jan $35s (now $1.45), so no worries there and, if SQQQ goes lower, you can sell 5 more calls and use the $1,000 you've collected to roll your 20 Jan $15s at least $1 lower.  Wash, rinse, repeat and notice you are constantly SELLING premium which WILL expire worthless – that's the whole trick to it!  

    Big Chart – Failing the 50 dmas would be very bad – any of them.  

    Swamp/StJ:

    Image result for trump swamp

    Energy/StJ – I like OIH but not a fan of oil being over $70 or any individual oil companies.

    SKX/Tommy – That's why I LOVE earnings season – there's always a good sale somewhere.  SKX got way ahead of themselves, which is why we didn't get back in this year.  So many ticking bombs like this one as earnings reveal who can really make these lofty valuations.  

    Happy day 1020!

    Image result for happy 4/20 day

    Remember – Big Brother is watching you!  


  8. Nah….Big Brother will be surfing today….. ;)   Welcome to California….


  9. Phill// Reminder about the HMNY Numbers from yesterday's post.  Here is my question on yesterday's post regarding the numbers. Thanks.

    (b)   Could you explain in more details about the numbers (such as 53% of the stock, +$75M and the $1.66) you had arrived in your post. Sorry I am not able to follow you on this.  You could explain after hours the math behind this.  Thanks

     " a general note on diluting companies:  If you own a stock at $175M at $4 share and they sell $150M worth of stock.  Now you own 53% of the stock you had + $75M.  In HMNY"s case, there was are 45M authorized shares so you own the stock + $1.66". 


  10. Phill/  Where do you see the price for AAPL after the earnings?  Do you think they will halt the Apple X model as rumored?  Thanks.


  11. Oil/Phil- such a pity some of us let go the shorts at low 68s… but now I know POTUS is on our side on this… next time I will have a stronger conviction to hang on… till the next short!


  12. new low for LB… dangit!


  13. HBI too ;-(


  14. Long-Term Portfolio Review (LTP) – Part 1:  $575,343 is DOWN $11,663 from $587,006 at our 3/14 review but the STP is up $45,000 so our paired portfolios are certainly doing their net jobs of grinding out profits in any market conditions.  As I said the other day, when the LTP was up 17%, it was a good time to cash out and go on vacation as we had an $85,000 gain in the the LTP and a $75,000 gain in the STP and that was $160,000 (26.666%) gained on $600,000 in 4 months and there was no way we weren't going to do worse for the rest of the year.  

    When you get way ahead of the curve – take the money and run!  If this wasn't my job I would have cashed out and taken at least earnings season off and come back in May with CASH!!! to see if people go away or not.  BUT, everyone hates it when I cash out – so I don't – but I did say it was the smart move!  

    We haven't cashed out the hedge fund either but we're 90% in cash and up about 6% for the year as we play a lot more conservatively in the Fund while we're benchmarking.  Our goal there is simply to make 20% though hopefully we'll have a nice crash and we can put more money to work and double that up but, for now, slow and steady wins the race…

    Short Puts – We're just bookmarking positions that we'd like to buy if they get cheap and, if they don't, then we keep the money we collect.  Ideally, we sell $4-5,000/month in puts so the short puts drop $50-60,000 a year into our pockets in a bull market.  That's 10% of the portfolio right there!  IBM is at a point where we want to turn it into a position and CM as well.  CBT was a speculative lithium play and I don't want to kill it as we're in for net $61.40 and the stock is $56.66 so no big deal but I'm not enthusiastic enough to add to that one.  No hurry on any of them.

    • FTR – Doing very well now.  
    • NRZ – Newish and still good for a new trade. 
    • ABX – Amazingly undervalued.
    • ALB – Slight rejection at $100 and I am still hoping for $110 before selling 10 more short calls.

    • ALK – Almost at our 2-year target already!  
    • ARR – Did not hit our $24 cover target and we should have pulled the trigger when we were rejected.  Earnings are soon though so I'd rather wait and see now.  
    • BBBY – This is the one that cost us all the money!  Was +$2,400, now -$4,500 so $6,900 swing on this spread!   It's silly though as we're not worried about the $17.50 puts but, at the moment, they are hitting us for an $1,850 "loss".  I think the best adjustment here would be to roll the $17.50 calls ($3.85) to the $15 calls at $4.75 as it's a no-brainer to spend less than $1 to gain $2.50 of intrinsic value.  We can buy back the 20 short 2020 $25 calls for $1.45 ($2,900) and sell 10 $22.50 calls for $2.25 ($2,250) and then, when the stock comes back, we can sell a few short-term calls as well.

    • C – We're back to where we came in in early Feb.  I'm still good with these targets.  
    • CBI – Still waiting for an infrastructure bill.  They are merging with MDR and it will be a long, slow turnaround so I don't want to make changes until we see what the combined shares look like but we may as well buy back the short 2020 $25 calls for 0.95 as it's a 45% gain in 3 months and we'll sell more calls on a bounce in the combined company. 
    • CDE – Doing much better than ABX.  
    • CHK – We had a good entry on this one so we're profitable even though they've been pretty disappointing overall.
    • CHL – We finally got a fill on the short puts so now we just watch and wait.  
    • CMG – Time to pay the piper on our short calls!  Our long spread is practically in the money and good for $50,000 if we stay on track and currently at net $15,000 so $35,000 more upside make that great for a new trade as we're $35/50 in the money.  The short puts are simply protecting our gains so I think we'll roll our 3 short April $300 calls at $33.50 ($10,050) to 4 short June $325 calls at $23.50 (9,400) so we're spending $650 to buy $25 in strike and we can do that 8 more time before we're in trouble.  


  15. China slaps 179% tariff on sorghum. Affected states:

    Kansas (281 million bushels), Texas (149 million), Arkansas (43 million), Nebraska (23 million), Colorado (22 million), Oklahoma (21 million), South Dakota (18 million), Missouri (13 million), Mississippi (9 million), and Louisiana (6 million). 

    You get what you vote for.


  16. with our Obama-led Long Prosperity; good economy, low gas prices, low food prices, now coming to an end, maybe DBA CORN SOYB worth having some action. CORN Nov 2018 23 calls are only 15 to 20 cents. Commodities have been dead for so long the premiums are almost free.


  17. No improvement in the indexes but with AAPL down 3%, there's no hope – it's too much of a drag on all but the RUT (so that should be bounciest).  

    Oil bounced off $68.50 again.  Dollar way up at 90.18.

    HMNY/Rookie – $150 + $175 is $325 and, since you own your shares in the $175, pre-diluted group, you own 175/325 = 53% of the stock after the dilution.  Since your company raised $150M in cash (hyporthetical, there's no sure numbers yet) I rounded to 1/2 and said your shares got $75M in cash for agreeing to dilute and, since there are 45M shares, that's $1.66 per share in cash.  Notice we're hovering right at my $2.35 target now.  Makes perfect sense….

    It's really not too different to your company paying you a special dividend except, instead of sending you a check for $1.66, you are keeping it in the bank to fund the operations.  People who don't like that arrangement are selling and people that do have faith in what the company will do with $1.66/share in cash are buying and the equilibrium is $4 (pre offering) – $1.66 = $2.34.  Not complicated, just math. 

    AAPL/Rookie – I don't think the 10 is going away but I think the price will come down.  It's a great phone and once you get used to the move where you pick it up knowing it needs to see you – it is better and faster than the thumb ID.  Everything else about the phone is a technological marvel – especially the camera, which takes amazing photos.  If people don't want the X, they don't have to buy it but AAPL is not going to discontinue it and I'm sure they'll make another $11Bn for the Q which is on track for $44Bn + a bonus $10Bn in Q4 is $54Bn and you can buy the whole company for $847Bn which is only 15.6x earnings but they also have $250Bn in cash so really more like you are paying $600Bn and a p/e below 12 for the company so who gives a crap what people think about them – they are still a buy!  

    There's only about 10 companies on the planet that AAPL can't write a check for and buy tomorrow so what exactly can compete with them?  If they can't make something they partner or buy.  They haven't skipped a beat in 6 years but that doesn't stop idiots from saying "this time is different" every quarter:

    Year End 30th Sep 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 TTM 2018E 2019E CAGR / Avg
    Revenue $m 156,508 170,910 182,795 233,715 215,639 229,234 239,176 261,652 271,387 +7.9%
    Operating Profit $m 55,241 48,999 52,503 71,230 60,024 61,344 64,259     +2.1%
    Net Profit $m 41,733 37,037 39,510 53,394 45,687 48,351 50,525 57,756 62,605 +3.0%
    EPS Reported $ 6.31 5.68 6.45 9.22 8.31 9.21 10.2     +7.9%
    EPS Normalised $ 6.31 5.68 6.45 9.22 8.31 9.21 10.2 11.4 13.1 +7.9%
    EPS Growth % +59.5 -9.9 +13.6 +42.8 -9.9 +10.8 +22.4 +24.2 +14.4  
    PE Ratio x           18.8 16.9 15.1 13.2  
    PEG x           0.78 0.70 1.05 1.47
    Profitability

    Oil/Dave – $68.50 was a perfectly good target, you can't play for outliers like that – it drives you crazy. 

    Ouch, down sharply into Europe close.  Nas failing 6,700!  

    Go China!  Trump needs to be punished for this trade BS, it's a path we really can't go down.  

    Corn/BDC – I never play grains but I do like DBA in those cases.  

    Hopefully we get another shot around $18.50.  


  18. turn BTC or BCH directly into gold: 

    https://www.apmex.com/product/1/1-oz-gold-american-eagle-bu-random-year

    cheaper than credit card or paypal!


  19. it is just so enigmatic to me what these people are talking about:

    “If you put the currency in pocket and you forget about it for a year, and then at the end of the year, if you put it out then it shouldn’t have lost half its value.” 

    No, if you put 1 BTC in your pocket, a year later you have 1 BTC. However, BTC does dilute, and this rate is known, there are now about 17M coins and in 50 years there will be 21M, so if you put 1 BTC in your pocket now, you'll have at worst, 0.809 BTC in some long timeframe. By comparison, 1 Federal Reserve Dollar in you pocket in 1913 is now worth $0.05. 

    "For a cryptocurrency like bitcoin to see widespread adaptability as a stable currency, the supporters must come to a consensus whether they wish to use it as a currency or wish to use it as an investment vehicle to generate high returns. “Those two objectives can’t co-exist in the same world,” adds Damodaran."

    That's exactly wrong! That is indeed the magic this new System of Trust brings to the table: it's exactly both those things at the same time. It's funny, these "professors," how limited their ability to see reason right in front of them. I live in a totally different world than these people, I cannot see what they see at all.



  20. DXD/Phil- I didn’t get to close my 10 call shorts, can’t get filled. Now it’s at .25, should I just close at .25? Or you feel don’t need to spend more just to get bearish that fast in earning Seasons?


  21. Phil//  Thanks for an amazing and a very detailed explanation on the HMNY numbers and also for the APPL analysis.  


  22. BitCoin/BDC – Well, you are doing apples to oranges because you are talking dilution of the net amount of BitCoins vs the transactional value of a Dollar.  In the case of a Dollar, you could buy a up of coffee for 0.05 in 1913 but the average worker was paid 0.30/hr, so you could buy 6 cups of coffee for an hour's work.  Now a regular (they were all regular) cup of coffee is maybe $1.50 and you can still buy 6 cups of coffee for an hour at minimum wage but maybe 15 at the average wage.  In the end, all currency is simply a method of facilitating trade and, in and of itself, it has no value of it's own other than as a trading instrument.  That's the fundamental flaw in the way Crypto bulls see their "currency" they think currency is a thing of value but that's not what currency is.  

    Schumer puts up a bill to decriminalize pot at the Federal level.  MO at $57!  

    DXD/Dave – I don't know what the other end is but if you mean the April $8/10 spread we put in the STP a month ago, we were looking for 0.50 in July for the short calls and they were 0.70 on 4/2 – a full month after we made that trade so I can't imagine why you couldn't get 0.50 – what broker?  At this point, I would not bother covering until it pops back. 

    You're welcome Rookie.  


  23. Phil/oil reserves

    Good morning to you!

    Awesome math on the oil futures! 

    You definitely have MY vote for the SPR Director!

    I wish I could follow you into some of these trades, but my life is already busy enough and I just can’t stay tied to the computer…’Regular’ investing tak3s enough of my time, although I enjoy the mental stimulation and challenge of adjusting positions etc(not too often! Haha!)


  24. DXD/Phil- Yes the July, no I did get the trade up… I meant few days ago when you said let's closed the short on 10 calls. I did'nt get to fill them and close the shorts even at $0.2. Currently it's at .3, will you still recommend chasing to close it or leave it be?


  25. Boss, I am taking LULU short here.  Just because I think it is stretched.   Any words of wisdom against it.


  26. A day for amateurism

    can't say enough about how awesome #6 was: she started in the second wave (that's like the joggers wave).


  27. Long-Term Portfolio Review (LTP) – Part 2:  We had very little work to do in P1 so hopefully P2 will go smoothly as well.   There's no sense making many adjustments when we're going to hear earnings reports over the next 30 days, we have 20 30-day periods to go on most of those trades so using 5% of them to gather more information before allocating capital is kind of sensible, right? 

    • F – On track and paying a nice dividend while we wait. 
    • FNSR – We got aggressive on these but it's likely to be a slow recovery.   (Finisar Is Oversold, Morgan Stanley Says In Upgrade)
    • GE – We got aggressive on these and earnings were good but it's going to be a long, slow recovery. 
    • HBI – Earnings are 4/30 so we'll see.  
    • HMNY – They just announced a dilutive round and, like the OOP, we want to improve the position.  The 20 2020 $7.50 puts at $5.80 ($11,600) can be rolled to 30 of the $5 puts at $3.60 ($10,800) so we spend $800 to roll down $2.50 in strike and our obligation is the same $15,000 worth of HMNY if assigned.  The $2.50 calls at $1 MUST be rolled to the $1.50 calls at $1.30, would be criminal not to do that and, if we DD there, our basis is $2.05 on the $1.50 calls so our break-even is $3.55 – I can live with that.  

    Though it's annoying when a stock doesn't go up, we were (and still are) only obligated to own $15,000 worth of HMNY and now, with 100 $1.50 calls, we have spent $2.05 so $20,500 there means we're in this trade for $35,500 and that's just 2/3 of a $50,000 allocation block.  You can't go into speculative trades and then chicken out – we knew it was risky but it seemed like a good risk and the dilution isn't news to us nor is the fact that they are burning cash – THAT WAS THEIR BUSINESS PLAN!  

    Unfortunately for them (and us), if Tech goes out of favor and people stop buying into those "growth at all cost" models – then we're screwed!  

    • HRB – Still good for a new trade, which is ridiculous as it's at our goal.  
    • IMAX – I got bored banging the table on this one, now it's gone.
    • LB – Another opportunity to deploy some cash.  We're only obligated for 10 at $45 so let's roll those short puts at $14.50 ($14,500) to 15 of the $37.50 puts at $9.40 ($14,100).  We may as well buy back the 30 short $50 calls for $2.10 ($6,300) and spend $2.20 ($6,600 to roll the 30 $35 calls ($5.80) to the $30 calls at $8 and we'll half cover by selling 15 $40 calls for $4.20 ($6,300) so we're spending net $6,600 to push our calls $15,000 into the money – smart!   We'll start selling short calls when they recover too.  Even now, Aug $40s are $1 for 119 days out of 637 so there's $6,000 we can recover over time selling 10 short calls per period (not yet, of course). 

    • MT – On track.
    • NLY – Waiting to sell short calls at a better price.  Hopefully we can get $1 for the $12s. 
    • SKT – Great for a new trade.  Earnings not until 5/1.  (Every Retail REIT Is Toast — Except For These 3) and we collect 0.34 dividend on 4/30 too.  
    • THC – Nothing to do here but wait to collect the rest of our money.  

    • UCTT – Took a dive recently but we expected that and now it's time to buy back the short $22.50 calls and buy 20 2020 $15 calls, now $6.65 and I love this as a new trade.   
    • VRX – Right on track.  
    • WBA – Still good for a new trade but it will be a long integration process.  
    • WPM – Back in business as silver surges.  

    All in all, business is very good with the LTP/STP and we're very well-balanced into earnings.  We're going to add IBM for sure and we still don't have AAPL, so hopefully they go on sale too!  


  28. Oil/Maya – I said the same thing to Obama and he ignored me.  We could have had a surplus so big even Hillary could have gotten elected!  As to Futures, you have to trade what fits your life and schedule – you seem to have a lot of fun jetting around – don't trade that in for trading!  

    Speaking of trading, /KC getting that nice pop again.  As I said the other day, take those quick profits over and over again and you don't need to catch "the big one".

    I took one off the table at the Webinar and that left these two, which I intend to stick with until $120 but, if we hit $116 again, I'll add one or two and then sell 2 at $117 and my new basis for 2 would be $115.  Makes the big one much bigger when it comes…

    DXD/Dave – I still like it if you need the hedge and now, I would not pay more.

    LULU/That – Stretched!  LOL!  They are a clothing store trading at 45x earnings.   What do you need me to say?  When you are paying $13Bn for a clothing retailer, what should the earnings be?  $1Bn would be 13x earnings – that's fair.  $500M would be 26x earnings and maybe if they are growing fast that's not too bad…

    Year End 28th Jan 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E CAGR / Avg
    Revenue $m 1,370 1,591 1,797 2,061 2,344 2,649 3,022 3,348 +14.1%
    Operating Profit $m 376.4 391.4 376 369.1 421.2 456     +3.9%
    Net Profit $m 270.6 279.5 239 266 303.4 258.7 418.5 472.9 -0.9%
    EPS Reported $ 1.86 1.91 1.66 1.89 2.21 2.33     +4.7%
    EPS Normalised $ 1.86 1.91 1.66 1.89 2.21 2.53 3.09 3.51 +6.4%
    EPS Growth % +46.5 +3.2 -13.5 +14.2 +16.8 +14.5 +21.9 +13.8  
    PE Ratio x           37.7 30.9 27.1  
    PEG x           1.72 2.23 2.86
    Profitability

    They do have radically pumped-up estimates for forward earnings but, even if they hit them, still not a bargain.  

    My attitude with a stock like this is wave goodbye and God bless them if they grow into that value and, meanwhile, if the market crashes and we can sell $70 puts for $10 (now $4.50) – THEN I'll be mildly interested.  

    Oops, my bad, you said you are shorting (I was distracted by "stretched").  Well I agree with that one but they are a dangerous MoMo stock that have beaten estimate in all of the last 4 quarters.  Still, $100 should make people think a bit more so you can sell 3 June $100 calls for $3.75 ($1,125) and buy 5 of the $100 ($7.50)/$90 ($2.80) bear put spreads for $4.70 ($2,350) and then you are in for net $1,225 on the $5,000 spread that's half in the money.  


  29. Giuliani to Join Trump’s Legal Team


  30. Wells Fargo agrees to pay $1 billion to settle customer abuses




  31. 7 Traits of Super-Productive People





  32. Phil / oil deal – please check email


  33. HMNY/Phil- I remembered you recently added 50 more 2.5 calls to LTP after the dilution. So I assume the adjustments goes together with the addition right?


  34. Phil,

    I see the LB adjustment you are making above.  I have a slightly different position and wonder if it is worth adjusting.  I have:

    1x of the 2020 LB $35 puts sold for $6.20

    2x of the 2020 LB $35/$45 BCS bought for net $4.35

    Since the long 2020 $35 call (currently $5.70) is still higher than the net debit paid for the spread, I am inclined to leave it alone for now.  And the $35 put is at the money, so no adjustment there either.  Do you agree or is there an adjustment you would make? 


  35. Phil/NLY   Thanks for the HMNY advice.  Thinking of buying NLY, say 1000 shares.  What would you write against it?   Sell 10 each July $10 puts and calls?


  36. NEM/Phil – what is special about NEM that it has been so much stronger than ABX?


  37. and RGLD, too..


  38. Oil/Chris – Wow, let's get going on that one.  Call me over the weekend or later.  

    HMNY/Dave, LTP - No, 100 is our target so if you already added 50 more, that's plenty!  

    Sometimes, if I haven't logged an entry in the LTP, I forget and pick it again.  

    LB/CSL – Well, it's always a good idea to roll long calls down $5 for $2.50 or less.  If you're not willing to do that – why stay in the trade?  No sense in messing with the puts as the target is fine and the short $45s are a fine target too.  I'd do the roll and make the money back later with 1/4 sales short-term calls.  

    NLY/Taihu – They have really terrible option prices but, with the stock at $10.27, I'd sell the 2020 $8 calls for $2.40 and the $10 puts for $1.30 so that's net $6.57 so, if you get called away at $8, who cares?  The dividend is 0.30/qtr so you'd still get 1/2 if called away and plenty of cushion if it drops.  If you do get called away, $8 is dropped in your account and the short calls would be cancelled and you simply buy more stock and sell more calls and that qtr you have 0.13 (the net $10.40) instead of 0.30 but I'd rather have the extra protection than take the risk.  

    In the LTP, we were more aggressive and did not sell calls yet but our buy-in was $10.05 so, as long as they hold $10, we don't have to worry.  We already collected our first 0.30 dividend ($750 on 2,500 shares) on 3/28 against our net $17,250 entry so 4.3% return since 3/2 on just the dividends and the 0.21 ($525) upside to the stock is another 3% so about 7.3% in a month on this "boring" play! 

    NEM/Scott – ABX has been having a huge problem with environmental issues in Peru and labor issues in a couple of other places – kind of a run of bad luck.  They used to move in lock-step and I think ABX will make a huge move up to cover the gap at some point.  NEM is not targeting much growth in production or earnings this year and NEM traders may switch horses if ABX starts to get more exciting.  

    ABX vs. NEM: Which Is the Better Gold Stock Ahead of Earnings? – Zacks

    RGLD I don't pay enough attention to to say but I'd say the main point is ABX simply had a bad year and, hopefully, they've addressed those issues into 2018.

    Barrick Gold: Great Company, Great Price


  39. HMMY/Phil- sorry a little confuse with that last statement. So 100 1.5 calls is your target? 


  40. Sold some MAT Jan 2019 12 puts for $1.50.  Thinking Mattel's CEO's resignation could pave the way for Hasbro to make another pass at them.


  41. NEM/Phil – thanks.

    Any interest in LGF/A these days?


  42. Phil/LB – Thanks for the advice.  Did the $5 roll for $2.20 and will look to sell covers on strength.  


  43. LB, KSS, CHS, GPS, FL,  even BURL today… - just savage.

     

    But not TLRD, or M


  44. OLED – going to try to collect a few shares today if I can get 93.95 before close…  June $95 puts still looking good, too.


  45. PDCO – orders in for Oct $20 puts @ 1.50.  just $370 regular margin.


  46. OLED

    Scott – I would be more inclined to sell some Jan 90 puts for $14.  But that's just me.  Why the interest in this name ?



  47. HMY/LTP, Dave - Yes, we should have 100 $1.50 calls uncovered.  

    Not a good-looking finish for the week.  

    MAT/Albo – I kept giving them a chance and they kept disappointing.  Blowing their Marvel and Star Wars licenses was the last straw.

    LGF/Scott – Remind me on the weekend as I'd have to go over their pipeline.  I used to like them and might have played them again but then the Weinstein thing happened, which tainted them. 

    Your welcome CSL. 

    I love that "Do you have any Republican friends video" – would be interested in the opposite question in Dallas.   

    Have a great weekend folks,

    - Phil


  48. OLED/Albo – makes money, -no- debt, big pullback to long term support trendline. not going all in here, but could be a floor.




  49. OLED/albo – and I filled at 93.95…


  50. CLF is looking really interesting.  They are expecting something like $900M in free cash flow in 2018, and they are valued at just $2.3B.  They are closing their Australian mine, which is their last asset that is exposed to the seaborne iron market (which competes with Rio, etc).  Their balance sheet is looking really strong, and they were talking on the conference call about beginning a dividend sometime soon.  Current PE of about 6.6.  It seems like their go-forward business has a big moat.  What do you think Phil?


  51. This is the kind of thing Watson (AI) can do even better than humans.  A transcription factor is a protein that turns genes on or off (basically).  Researchers patented the ability to use specific substances to target specific transcription factors and treat different diseases (‘turn off’ or suppress the gene that causes the disease).  Whether or not that actually affects the disease process or is even a viable or safe technique remains to be seen, but it provides a new avenue for exploration.  From page 193 on you can see the specific genes and the various agents that effect their expression. Notably, not all treatment agents are prescriptions.  This factor alone is significant since it further demonstrates that expensive treatments are not always the most efficacious or necessary.  

    http://pdfaiw.uspto.gov/.aiw?PageNum=0&docid=20180016314&IDKey=95FBB886E92C&HomeUrl=http%3A%2F%2Fappft.uspto.gov%2Fnetacgi%2Fnph-Parser%3FSect1%3DPTO1%2526Sect2%3DHITOFF%2526d%3DPG01%2526p%3D1%2526u%3D%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsrchnum.html%2526r%3D1%2526f%3DG%2526l%3D50%2526s1%3D20180016314.PGNR.%2526OS%3D%2526RS%3D


  52. Phil

     T AT&T Inc. report earning on Tuesday what do think a short?

    Do you think they move up If they lose their court case and gave up on the buyout of Time Warner  TWX?

    Thanks


  53. Kim Jong Un: North Korea no longer needs nuclear tests



  54. Good morning possible a bit early for you guys, but yesterday I did read a very disturbing article.

    Basically the IMF has intentions to get out of the domineering effect of the dollar, meaning the banking system could change to a type of ledger system where the $ will only possible be good in its own country such as the Peso in Mexico, but will lose the position as leading currency. This obviously will make an enormous impact on the stock market and the complete financial situation. Down goes your retirement!!!

    The banking system will not be depending on the USA. The US will not be able to sell bonds to other countries. This should be somehow taking effect around beginning of July this year.

    Anyone has heard of such rumors? Even Ilene's articles above showing warning signs.

    Please comment.


  55. Here are some cut comments from the writer, obviously the man wants to sell his books, but it could happen.

    Under the guidance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global elites will use that new financial system to replace the US dollar with their own globalist currency.

    With the globalist currency replacing the dollar, demand for Treasury bonds will dry up… cutting the US government’s main source of funding.

    Distributed Ledgers have recently emerged as a key technology supporting multiple applications. The potential exists to transform payments and securities settlement… by offering currency substitutes.”

    The UN said we need “a new global reserve system… that no longer relies on the United States dollar as the single major reserve currency.”

    And the IMF admitted they want to make “the special drawing right (SDR) the principal reserve asset in the [International Monetary System].”

    More recently, they advanced their plan by helping private institutions, such as the UK’s Standard Chartered Bank, issue bonds in SDRs.

    And that “the IMF seems to be exploring the possibility of permitting a broader use of [their globalist currency] beyond internal transactions among member central banks.”

    For example, in 2014 the Obama administration fined French bank BNP Paribas $9 billion because they did business with Cuba and Iran.

    The bank didn’t break any French laws.

    But the US government threatened to kick them out of the US banking system if they didn’t pay the fee.

    Since the US dollar plays such a key role in international trade…

    Being kicked out of the US banking system is like a death sentence.

    As long as the US dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency…

    International financial institutions must be able to clear and settle US dollar transactions if they want to remain in business.

    That’s why French bank BNP Paribas paid the fee.

    Something similar happened with Britain’s Standard Chartered Bank, Germany’s Commerzbank and Switzerland’s UBS, among others.

    But what if global elites could set up another network beyond the reach of the US government…



  56. Pompeo facing rare opposition from Senate panel


  57. Trump’s 2019 Nightmare




  58. Eurozone interest rates could stay frozen well into 2019


  59. Good morning!

    Futures flat bu have been up 100 and down 100 so far:

    Not much happened over the weekend so we'll see what happens tomorrow (today doesn't matter).

    CLF/Palotay – I like them a lot and tariffs should help them over the long haul.  We sold the 2020 $10 puts for $3.60 in the LTP back on 1/10 – one of our first new LTP trades – but then they blasted higher so we never filled and then they blasted lower and, for whatever reason, we forgot to add the bull spread.  Now they are in the middle so I'm waiting and seeing but you can still sell those puts for $3.35 – not bad.  

    Cools stuff, Seer.

    T/QC – I don't short companies I like.  Would be nice if they go lower and we can add a bunch.  I think it doesn't really affect them much if they don't get TWX as yes, it saves them money but then it puts their growth strategy into question.  

    Dollar/Yodi – That's a major move and made possible by Trump's antagonization of everyone, making the US seem like an unstable place for the rest of the World to rely on.  As I keep saying, if Putin wanted to have an agent that completely destroyed the United State's standing and power in the World, he couldn't have done better than Donald Trump – even if there is "no collusion".  

    Still, any unwind would be a very long, slow process due the enormity of the Dollar holdings:

    March 30 (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar's share of currency reserves reported to the International Monetary Fund declined in the final quarter of 2017 to a four-year low, as other currencies' shares of reserves grew, data released on Friday showed.

     

    The share of dollar reserves has declined for four straight quarters as the greenback weakened in 2017 due to faster growth outside the United States and bets that other major central banks would consider reducing stimulus. Still the dollar has remained the biggest reserve currency by far.

    Global reserves are assets of central banks held in different currencies, mainly used to support their liabilities. Central banks sometimes have used reserves to help support their respective currencies.

    "Reserve managers in Q4 liked (yen) and 'other currencies,"' Steven Englander, head of research and strategy with Rafiki Capital Management, wrote in a research note. "The limited (U.S. dollar) buying is not surprising. Reserve managers buy (U.S. dollar) when they have to — they rarely want to buy."

    Reserves held in U.S. dollars rose to $6.28 trillion, or 62.7 percent of allocated reserves, in the fourth quarter, from $6.13 trillion, or 63.5 percent, in the third quarter. The share of U.S. dollar reserves declined to its smallest level since reaching 61.24 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013, IMF data showed.

    Ranked second behind the greenback, the euro's share of global reserves reached 20.15 in the fourth quarter, up from 20.05 percent in the third quarter. This was its biggest share in three years, but well below the single currency's peak share of reserves at 28 percent in 2009.

    The yen's share of currency reserves rebounded from a dip in the third quarter to 4.89 percent, which was its biggest since the fourth quarter of 2002, IMF data showed.

    China's share of allocated currency reserves was 1.23 percent, up from 1.12 percent from the prior quarter. The IMF had reported the yuan's share of central bank holdings for the first time in the fourth quarter of 2016.

    The article you cite is mileading in many ways.  The UN quote, for example, is from 2010:

    Scrap dollar as sole reserve currency: U.N. report – Reuters

    As I said, even if they all finally agree to do it, it's a long, SLOW process.  


  60. Phil Thanks for the detailed information, the clown’s course is very disturbing! I think Adolf Hitler was a brainchild in comparing with him!!!!!!