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May Day Massacre – Markets End April with a Whimper

Image result for stagnant wages top 1%Europe is closed, Asia is closed.  

Today is a day the World celebrates it's ordinary workers so, of coure, American doesn't even aknowledge it.  As you can see from the chart, since the Reagan Revolution (when the Rich overthrew the Poor and set up an Oligarchy in the United States), the wages of the Top 1% have grown 138% in the past 4 decades while the wages of the Bottom 90% have grown just 15%.  To acknowlege the working poor in this country would be to potentially begin a conversation on how badly we treat them – and that's a conversation the Oligarchs dare not have in America.

As the Wage Gap expands, so does the Wealth Gap, exponentially – especially now that we're no longer taxing the wages of the wealthy.  As I warned back in 2007's "The Dooh Nibor Economy (that’s “Robin Hood” backwards!)":

One of the great tricks of our economy is that there are avenues of wealth creation that are available to those of us who are already rich that are denied to those of you who aren't.  Only 1% of a Prince and Associates survey of high net worth individuals between $5 and $10M invest in ETFs and only 17% invest in mutual funds, NONE of the investors with more than $20M in assets invested in mutual funds, which are the new "opiate for the masses" but that's a whole other article I will write!  76% of the super-rich (> $20M) invest in hedge funds (Ka-Ching for me!) and another 36% invest in my other enterprise, start-up companies privately and through venture capital firms (and you think I just choose these professions at random).

Obviously, if you have less than $1M in household income you are essentially prohibited from investing in hedge funds due to government restrictions aimed at keeping out the riff-raff protecting the small investor.  This game is rigged so that the bottom 90% are forced to put their money into "safe" investments that return 3-10% a year while the top 10% take that same money and roll it into investments that make over 20% per year.  Just ask a person with less than $500,000 in net worth (there's 295M of them in this country) how much money the dividend tax reduction saved them…

In fact, my example at the time (June 6th, 2007) of how the rich get richer screwing the poor was none other than Donald J. Trump himself (I wonder what ever happened to that guy?):

I'm not going to get into a doctoral thesis on the subject but here's a quick example of how the Dooh Nibor economy works:

  • Donald Trump (and no disrespect to The Donald as I love the guy, but he's a good example), one of our 1,000 Billionaires, spends $1.2B to put up 1,000 new condos in Manhattan.  He sells those condos for $2.2M each to 1,000 of our nation's 1.8M people who have $10M or more, pocketing an extra $1Bn for all his hard work. 

    • Since nice condos "only" cost $1M just 7 years ago, the poor multimillionaires must figure out how to come up with an extra 10% of their net worth in order to maintain the "Trump Lifestyle."  Let's say they earn $500K per year and need an extra 50K – doesn't seem like much does it?

      • They in turn raise the prices they charge to 1,000 of their clients (the 150M strong "middle class") by 10%.  These people are the doctors, lawyers, store owners, white collars, etc. that you do business with every day.

        • That forces the middle class, who can barely afford their lifestyle to pass that 10% on to each other, as well as the 120M Americans who have household incomes of less than $48,000 a year, many FAR less than that in the form of vital services they can't live without.

Image result for the dooh nibor economyThat's how your housekeeper, who spent $3.20 per gallon to fill up her tank in order to clean your house for $10 per hour, ends up paying for the Trump condo she's cleaning.  It's a nickel here and a dime there but when you pick the pockets of 270M people for "just" a quarter a dozen times a day that's $3 x 270M x 365 days = $295Bn a year.   Multiply this petty theft over a 10-year period and that's how you move $3T of our missing $4T from the poorhouse to the penthouse – Dooh Nibor!

All this would be fine if we were equally creating wealth among our lower classes but we are not.  In fact, the median hourly wage for American workers has declined 2% since 2003 after accounting for inflation.  Inflation has, in fact, outpaced income for workers earning up to $80,000 per year, (the bottom 90% of our country).  The top 1%, meanwhile, made "just" 8.7% of all income in 1996 but made 11.2% of it last year, a 28% increase for the decade or $325Bn a year extra going to 1M very happy households.

Image result for stagnant wages top 1%

Should we (assuming you are lucky enough to be one of Mr. Trump's potential buyers) care?  For every one Robin Hood there was a very rich King and his whole court, the wealthy Sheriff of Nottingham and his crew…  even Maid Marion had her own maids – it's human nature, it's the way of the world, it's the natural order of things…

Image result for wealth of top 1%Human nature has now given us President Trump, putting the wolf in charge of the hen house is NOT going to help balance the scales (or the books) for the average American and, by average American, I mean anyone who misses the $3.5M cut-off of wealth that puts you in the Top 1% these days.  

Globally, the Oligarchs of the Top 1% (50M adults) have about $120Tn in wealth, which is an average of $2.4M each.  The Bottom 3.4Bn adults have to make due with $7.4Tn between them or $2,176 each.  The next 1Bn adults are better off, with $31.3Tn, so thay have $31,000 each in net worth while the Global Top 10% have $100Bn or about $285,000 each to their name.

Clearly, the 3.4Bn adults and their families who have just $2,176 between them aren't able to do much but try to survive from day to day.  Lifting them out of poverty would require something radical, like taking $7.4Tn of the Top 1%'s $120Tn (6.2%) and giving it to the bottom 3.4Bn people, which would DOUBLE their lifestyle and lift them out of poverty.  Of course, this would leve the people on Top with just $2.24M, down from $2.4M and, to avoid that kind suffering – they have worked hard to put in "Conservative Leaders" around the World and they have bought up the newspapers and the TV stations, the Radio Stations and the movie companies – all in an effort to convince you – the bottom 5Bn adults on the planet – that poor people suck and it would be bad policy to help them.  

Now I don't blame your average Millionaire for being unwilling to sacrifice $66,000 to eliminate Global Poverty – they are not generally the ones who are objecting.  It's the Top 0.01%, the Billionaire Class, who find it cheaper to buy politicians and TV stations than it would be for them to give up 6.6% ($66.6M per Billion) of their wealth to help their fellow man.  Those are the people who are villifying the poor and paying off politicians to kill any program that may attempt to help them – for fear of them actually working, which would demonstrate the wisdom of redistributing the wealth – even slightly.

And bringing half of the World's population out of poverty in exchange for 6.6% of their wealth won't hurt the 1% at all.  The poor don't use that money to buy back their own stock or go crazy with their paddles at Christie's – the poor spend their money and, like all money – it funnels right back to the Top 1% – so they get it all back anyway.  We're just saying it would be nice if they shared some for a little while.

Image result for workers of the world uniteIt was Marx who said: "Workers of the World unite – you have nothing to lose but your chains" and his lessons were taken to heart, by the Top 1%, who broke the unions and divided the workers by party, by race, by gender – by any means they could to keep them from uniting and they turned the chains into things that are less obvious like student loan debt, non-compete clauses, non-transferable health care and underfunded pension plans – all designed to keep the employees chained to the companies they work for at the lowest wages possible.  

Now we are entering a new era, where automation will make 50% of the existing jobs unnecessary and that will make the Top 1%, who own the machines, amazingly wealthy while the 1 out of 2 of you who become "unnecessary" will get to fully experience life without a Social Safety Net – especially at the rate this administration is working to dismantle it.

In a World that has invented robots to take care of your every need and perform every labor that needs to be done – you would think we would all be living in paradise.  That's not the case, of course, because very rich people have patented those robots and they will collect all the gains from their metal slave labor and they will give none to you – the soon-to-be poor.  

Keep voting for the Oligarchs and see what happens to the Wealth Gap.  Marx warned us about this 100 years ago but, oops, he's also been vilified – hasn't he?  

Happy Workers Day (suckers)! 

"History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce." - Karl Marx


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  1. Good Morning…  IMAX beat with nice growth numbers.

    Profit growth at IMAX

    Shares of IMAX (NYSE:IMAX) are higher after the company tops estimates with its Q1 report off global box office growth of 24% to $247M.

    Gross profit of $50.7M was churned up. The company says adjusted EBITDA per credit facility increased 70% to $31.4M during the quarter.

    IMAX signed contracts for 45 new theaters across 8 countries in Q1.

    "Looking ahead, our objectives this year are focused on improving the earnings power of our core business, increasing the differentiation of The IMAX Experience relative to other moviegoing options, and reinforcing the strength of our brand amongst worldwide consumers," says CEO Richard Gelfond.

    IMAX +3.11% premarket to $23.92.

  2. Thoughts on HBI eanrings?

  3. Good Morning.

  4. Good morning! 

    Not off to a good start, kind of following through on yesterday's drop.  We'll see if 2,640 (20% line) holds on /ES.  

    IMAX/Learner – And next Q will be much better.  I saw Avengers last night and it was packed, which is odd for a Monday at IMAX ($23.50/ticket!).  Keep in mind this is the first feature film shot 100% in IMAX so what will the lesson be for all the big films planning to shoot this year and next?  It might be a one-off but if more IMAX films have more success…

    Dow testing the 24,000 line, /YM 23,968.  Another bad one if it fails.  

    NYSE is right on the 200 dma at 12,460.

    HBI/Crs – Earnings were chopped 0.04 due to one-time costs so would have been 0.26 vs 0.24 expected but headline was a miss at 0.22.  Revenues were a beat and next Q they predict 0.45 and they'll be on track to make $1.75 for the year on a an $18 stock so my thoughts are BUYBUYBUY while people are being stupid. 

    We already have HBI in the OOP:

    Long Call 2020 17-JAN 18.00 CALL [HBI @ $18.47 $0.00] 10 3/15/2018 (626) $4,000 $4.00 $-1.03 n/a     $2.98 - $-1,025 -25.6% $2,975
    Short Call 2020 17-JAN 23.00 CALL [HBI @ $18.47 $0.00] -10 3/15/2018 (626) $-2,100 $2.10 $-0.73     $1.38 $-0.03 $725 34.5% $-1,375
    Short Put 2020 17-JAN 18.00 PUT [HBI @ $18.47 $0.00] -5 3/15/2018 (626) $-1,300 $2.60 $0.25     $2.85 - $-125 -9.6% $-1,425

    Down a bit from our entry but I still like it.  In the LTP, we rolled the $18s down to the $15s and I think we should do that in the OOP as the 2020 $15s are now $4.30 and the $18s are $3.10 so $1.20 is worth spending to roll down $3.

  5. LL – Down 50% from last September. 

    ~~Lumber Liquidators – - Earnings Mover dives -17%, taking out the $20-mark for the first time in months.

  6. PMI

    ~~ Upbeat comments from PMI Manufacturing; ISM up next.

    From Markit press release: 'April survey data signaled a steep improvement in operating conditions across the U.S. manufacturing sector. The latest PMI reading was the highest since September 2014, supported by stronger expansions in output and new orders. Moreover, new business rose at the sharpest pace in over three-and-a-half years. Meanwhile, rates of input price and output charge inflation accelerated to the fastest since mid-2011.'

  7.  HMNY, IMAX, HBI, LB, GE--painful today again ;-(

  8. Hope FTR will surprise to the upside AH…

  9. jabo you need to look a bit more to the happy side of trading!!!!

    Even my pot stock recommendationCANN of other day is up 7.6%. Maybe I send you some of my harvest over!!!

  10. ;-)

  11. Yodi….put me on your list.

  12. advill sorry I am running out of supply!!!

  13. C´mon,. I know you!…you never are out of supply with  your portfolios.


  14. on my list PFE @ 34.99 MO 55.95 PM 81 they are all good for later armchair trades or to sell leap puts

  15. I'd wait for AAPL to report tonight.  If it's bad this market will test the lows at a minimum.

  16. Si/Phil- I dd at 16.2. I was thinking to just hold as the silver contracts only expire in July?

  17. what happened IMAX?

  18. Market seems to be selling every little recovery attempt… making lower lows.

  19. what's up with LB?

  20. Yikes, down and down we go.  Dollar rising, /SI and /YG lower, /CL falling with /RB – nasty day.

    LL/Albo – My only interest was when they got stupidly cheap around $10.  Other than that, I don't see a lot of value in them.

    I guess the good data puts the Fed on the table….

    • ISM Manufacturing Index57.3 vs. 58.6 consensus and 59.3 prior.
    • Employment 54.2 vs. 57.3 prior.
    • Prices 79.3 vs. 78.1
    • New Orders 61.2 vs. 61.9
    • Production 57.2 vs. 61
    • Redbook Chain Store Sales+3.5% Y/Y vs. +2.6% last week.
    • Month-to-date sales are up 3.0% Y/Y and 0.5% M/M through April 28.

    Not that great either.

    PFE/Yodi – Good choice at this price.  Nice dividend too.

    AAPL/DC – They can single-handedly destroy the market with a bad report.

    IMAX/JMD – I do not get it. Something they said in the CC must have bothered people.  

    /SI/Dave – I just went to my 3rd at $16.10 so 3 avg at $16.24 means if I add another I drop to $16.20 but I think I'll wait and make sure we're done going down.  Of course I get back to 2 at $16.24 if we bounce.

    As long as we can see the Dollar is killing /SI then it makes sense to keep betting on /SI as /DX will eventually calm down.

    LB/Jabob – Down with XRT like everything else in the sector.

    So good to have you back harping on every tick of a stock so I can go back to wasting my time on your nonsense…

  21. 23,800, 2,630, 6,600 and 1,527.50 caught bounces – now we'll see if they are strong or weak.  Keep in mind there's no volume as Europe is closed so meaningless movement.

    600 points down so 120-point bounces at 23,920 and 24,040 

    50 points down so 10 points up for 2,640 and 2,650

    150 down so 30-point bounces to 6,630 and, of course, 6,660.

    I'd call it 35 to 1,530 so 1,537 and 1,544.

    Now we have our goals – let's see what happens.  

  22. FCX starting to look interesting again, IMO.

  23. Stocks slip ahead of Apple earnings, FOMC meeting

    • Stocks open lower as investors await Apple's latest earnings as well as the Fed's two-day policy meeting; Dow -0.6%, S&P -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.2%.
    • "Tonight's earnings release from [Apple] will likely keep most fundamental investors from making aggressive changes to their risk," says Jeremy Klein, chief market strategist at FBN Securities.
    • In U.S. corporate news, Dow components Pfizer (-2.1%) and Merck (-0.2%) are lower despite delivering quarterly earnings that beat analyst estimates.
    • Also, Pres. Trump has delayed the imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs on the European Union, Canada and Mexico to June 1 and has reached permanent exemptions for Australia, Brazil and Argentina.
    • Most S&P sectors open in the red, led by energy (-0.8%) and materials (-0.8%).
    • Most of the world's markets are closed for May Day, which likely will lead to lower than average volume in the U.S.; Japan's Nikkei was open, finishing +0.2%, and the U.K.'s FTSE currently +0.3%.
    • U.S. WTI crude oil -1.1% at $67.78/bbl.
    • Still ahead: ISM manufacturing index, construction spending, U.S. auto sales

    Analyst initiates Apple at Buy and 33% upside

    • D.A. Davidson initiates Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) with a Buy rating and a $220 price target, a 33% upside to yesterday’s close.
    • Analyst Tom Forte cites Apple’s “eye for design, strong share in the premium (high margin) markets for smartphones and a growing (but select) number other devices, and the most valuable global brand.”
    • Forte acknowledges that the company faces “a number of significant challenges” including the rise of Amazon and Google but expects Apple to grow sales by 7.5% per year through FY20.
    • Apple reports Q2 earnings aftermarket today.
    • Apple shares are up 0.7% to $166.49. 
    • Previously: Apple gains on expectations of record capital allocation program (April 30)
    • via Bloomberg
    • The e-commerce boom has also led to a boom in online purchases being returned at brick and mortar locations. That's the retailer's problem, yes?
    • Not so much. According to Simon Property Group (NYSE:SPG) CEO David Simon, a significant number of tenants are deducting returns of online items from their brick and mortar sales figures. That means sales per square foot – a key gauge for the likes of Simon and others like GGP and Macerich (NYSE:MAC) – is lower than it otherwise might be.
    • Sales per square foot is not just something investors look at, but a portion of rent – sometimes all of it – is based on property revenue.
    • It's not all bad news for landlords, as consumers who head to the mall to return items are likely to do some shopping alongside.
    • GGP board member Richard Hurwitz maybe has the best solution – move away from the obsession with sales per square foot as a measure of success.
    I think we have to buy some of this:  Freddie Mac reports Q1 results
    • Ford (NYSE:F) unit sales -4.7% to 204,651 to match the forecast from Edmunds. Retail sales were down 2.6% Y/Y during the month to 137,049 units.
    • Passenger car sales -15% to 42,373 units.
    • SUV sales -4.6% to 69,940 units.
    • Truck sales +0.9% to 92,338 units. F-Series sales +3.5% to 73,104 units.
    • The company ended the month with dealer stock of 579,699 units or 68 days' supply vs. 66 days' supply at the end of March.
    • Ford's sales waraup: "The industry continues operate at historically strong levels. We are seeing this with our F-Series trucks, which have now posted 12 consecutive months of year-over-year gains. The market continues to strongly favor wellequipped SUVs and trucks and our F-Series and new Expedition and Lincoln Navigator are capitalizing on this generational shift."
    • YTD U.S. sales -2.9% to 599,581 units.
    • Macau gaming revenue soared 27.6% in April to 25.7B patacas to smash the +21% consensus analyst estimate, according to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.
    • The huge gain came against a comparable from last year of +16% growth.
    • Union Gaming sees the Macau GGR momentum continuing. "With GGR growth accelerating and both VIP and mass remaining above 20% growth, we remain bullish on the market and have a high degree of confidence in our +17% GGR forecast for the year with a bias to the upside," writes analyst Grant Govertsen.

    • Under Armour (UAUAA) trades higher after topping Q1 estimates and reaffirming full-year guidance.
    • Revenue to wholesale customers was up 1% to $779M and direct-to-consumer revenue increased 17% percent to $352M to rep 30% of total sales,
    • North America revenue was relatively flat (-1% currency neutral), while international revenue soared 27% Y/Y.
    • Revenue by category: Apparel +7% to $766M, footwear +1% to $272M, accessories +3% to $92M.
    • Gross margin fell 60 bps to 44.8% of sales as "accelerated" inventory management initiatives factored in. SG&A expenses were up a full three percentage points to 43.4% of sales.
    • Under Armour ended the quarter with an inventory position of $1.1B, up 27% Y/Y.
    • UA guidance: Revenue is expected to be up at a low single-digit percentage rate reflecting a mid-single-digit decline in North America and international growth of over 25%. Gross margin is seen rising ~50 bps to 45.5% of sales due to benefits from lower planned promotional activity, product costs, channel mix and changes in foreign currency. Operating income is expected tofall in a range of $20M to $30M.
    • Previously: Under Armour beats by $0.05, beats on revenue (May 1)
    • UA +1.82% premarket. UAA +0.99%.
    • Macy’s (NYSE:M) provides an update on the expansion of off-price concept Macy’s Backstage.
    • The company says it opened approximately 20 Backstage locations in Q1 as part of its previously announced plan to open 100 locations within existing Macy’s stores in FY18. .
    • Macy’s plans to open a dedicated Backstage distribution center in Columbus, Ohio in the fall of 2019to support the initiative.
    • "This new distribution center will enable us to move merchandise to our Backstage locations faster and with more flexibility," says CEO Jeff Gennette.
    • Source: Press Release

    • Pfizer (PFEQ1 results: Revenues: $12,906M (+1.0%); Innovative Health: $7,829M (+5.6%); Essential Health: $5,077M (-5.4%).
    • Internal Medicine: $2,347M (-1%); Vaccines: $1,463M; Oncology: $1,697M (+26%); Inflammation & Immunology: $869M; Rare Disease: $549M (+8%); Consumer Healthcare: $905M (+7%).
    • Legacy Established Product: $2,636M (+1%); Sterile Injectable Pharmaceuticals: $1,360M (-12%); Peri-LOE Product: $737M (-10%); Biosimilars: $173M (+66%); CentreOne: $171M (-6%).
    • Net Income: $3,561M (+67.9%); Non-GAAP Net Income: $4,668M (+11.4%); EPS: $0.59 (+15.7%); Non-GAAP EPS: $0.77 (+11.6%).
    • 2018 Guidance: Total Revenues: $53.5B – 55.5B; Non-GAAP EPS: $2.90 – 3.00.
    • Shares are down 2% premarket.
    • GrubHub (NYSE:GRUB) is 6.4% lower despite posting a beat on top and bottom lines in Q1 earnings, with double-digit gains in nearly every metric.
    • Revenues grew 49% and net income rose 88% to $47.2M (GAAP income rose 74% to $30.8M).
    • Non-GAAP EBITDA of $64.1M was up 51% and beat an expected $57.9M.
    • Active diners grew 72% Y/Y to 15.1M; "daily average Grubs" rose 35% to 436,900.
    • Gross food sales rose 39% to $1.2B. "Our scale continues to generate improving profitability, leading to strong EBITDA per order of $1.63 during the first quarter, even as we push hard on delivery market expansion and spreading diner awareness," says CFO Adam DeWitt.
    • For Q2, it's guiding to revenues of $228M-$236M (above consensus for $227.9M) and EBITDA of $59M-$65M (vs. expected $60.2M). For the full year, it's guiding to $930M-$965M in revenues (vs. consensus for $950.8M) and EBITDA of $242M-$262M (vs. consensus for $251M).
    • Press release
    • Seagate Tech (NASDAQ:STXdrops 4.8% premarket after Q3 results that beat EPS estimates and narrowly beat revenue estimates with a 5% Y/Y revenue growth. Company provides guidance during the earnings call.
    • Key metrics: Non-GAAP gross margin, 30.8%; cash flow from operations, $558M; FCF, $1.4B; cash and equivalents, $2.9B; total liabilities, $7.6B; total operating expenses, $2.4B.   
    • Earnings call is scheduled for 9 AM Eastern with a webcast available here
    • Press release.    
    • Previously: Seagate Technology beats by $0.14, beats on revenue (May 1)
    • Previously: Seagate Technology declares $0.63 dividend (May 1)
    • Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZNlaunches the $23/box Prime Book Box for physical copies of children’s books.
    • Amazon says the cost of the subscription box works out to about 35% below the cumulative list price of the included books. Each box includes either four board books or two picture books or novels for older kids. All books are hardcover. 
    • Parents can sign up for the books in intervals of one, two, or three months and the books are divided into age groups starting at baby-two years and going up to nine-12 years. 
    • Game on: Amazon’s Mobile Masters 2018 esports mobile game tournament will have $100K in prizes. Mobile Masters will run June 23 and 24 with a broadcast from Amazon’s streaming studio in Seattle.  
    • Boston expansion: Amazon announces plans to expand its Boston tech hub and create an added 2K tech jobs. 
    • Amazon shares are up 0.1% premarket.  
    • Previously: Amazon will add 3K high-tech jobs during Canadian expansion (April 30)

  24. Hedges/Phil- I still cant close my short DXD $10 calls when you guys manage to fill at 0.18. Should I close at whatever it's trading to prepare for a possibility Apple bringing the market down? I think the portfolio has also the 50 short 20 SQQQ calls for May still open, was wondering if that's wise to hold into Apple's earnings? Or I am too pessimistic :D

  25. FCX/Albo – Last time we played them, they were at $5 so hard for me to bite at $15….

    Submitted on 2017/08/22 at 2:27 pm

    FCX (3/5) – This os one I picked last year at $4 and now they are $13.20 but I still like them!  They might actually make $1/share this year and much more if copper and gold tick up in price and yes, I'd rather buy them at $10 so no hurry here but you can already sell the 2019 $10 puts for $1.65, which nets you in at $8.35 or, if you want to be more aggressive, you can sell the $12 puts for $2.60 for net $9.40.  I think I'd be more aggressive on the puts and sell perhaps 10 ($2,600) and use that to buy 20 $10 ($5.50)/17 ($2.50) bull call spreads for $3 ($6,000) so net $3,400 on $14,000 worth of longs if all goes well.

    Submitted on 2017/11/07 at 7:20 am

    I loved copper at $2 and $2.50 but it's iffy here so I don't bother.  FCX is still the bullish way to play, though they are a double from where we played them last year. 

    Submitted on 2018/01/02 at 10:16 am

    ARR/Yodi – I definitely still like them and CIM.  FCX has had too much of a run for me to chase.

    Submitted on 2018/01/04 at 2:36 pm

    FCX/QC – I would think they sell off, they are about 40% in the last month – seems a bit much to live up to.

    They did make $1.17/share last year and this year should be better at $2 but next year they'll be back around $1.40 but that means $15 is kind of reasonable for them – even with the erratic swings.  The next step though, is contemplating the price of copper and that I don't feel great about as we test $3 from above so I'd wait for that to resume an uptrend before jumping in on FCX but, much like I said when they were $13 last year, you can always sell some puts and you can get $1.50 for the 2020 $12 puts, which puts you in for $10.50 – that's a no-brainer and the $15 puts are more aggressive at $2.65 but net $12.35 is a fine target for an entry.

    DXD/Dave – The July $10 calls?  They never did come back to $18 so the spread still stands in the STP as a $8/10 spread – I wasn't going to chase it but I would have taken 0.20, as that's not a huge difference but 0.22 is a bit much.  The reality is DXD is $9 so has to go up more than 10% which means the Dow would have to drop 5% (1,200 points) and AAPL would have to drop $150 to drag the Dow that low by itself so I'm not too worried that AAPL will drop 20% and blow up my hedges, right?

    On SQQQ, the STP has 80 long Sept $15 calls and 40 short Sept $21 calls and 50 short May $20 calls and SQQQ is at $17 so a 20% move on them requires a 7% drop in the Nas and AAPL is 15% of the Nas BUT would likely cause a mass sell-off but still I'd think AAPL would have to go down 10% to blow our range there.  

    I'm not that pessimistic though I might be if these weak bounces are failing!  

  26. Phil, thanks for the info on FCX.

  27. Thanks for the reassurance. times like this, inexperience people like me gets abit shaky hands and usually that's when we pay…. 


    By the way, I know you added a spread on MO, I can't seem to find it. Can anyone link me? 



  28. The Real Villain Behind Our New Gilded Age

  29. BLK bond chief "we're in a completely different regime now than we've ever seen in history."

  30. US delays decision on tariffs for EU, prolonging uncertainty

  31. President Trump has made 3,001 false or misleading claims so far

  32. What Does The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Look Like?

  33. this is what I've been saying: bitcoin (and it's progeny cryptos in general) are a new digital asset class that have characteristics of currencies, equities and commodities, but cannot be described accurately as being only one of these things.

    Often arguments made to minimize crypto miss the key fact. For example, I often read "bitcoin is a poor currency because it can't be used for payment anywhere and is too volatile." The answer is "well, it's not in itself just a currency."   

    Bitcoin, in actuality, is a new System of Trust. It's a completely different system. Gold as a currency is a system of trust (the element Au provides for the trust, and doubles as the underlying value). A fiat currency is a system of trust based on centralized, nation-state law and has no inherent underlying value, except for the economy itself (a recursive valuation in a way). Bitcoin is a distributed consensus protocol that establishes trust among its peers (users) eliminating the need for the centralized laws (the "law" is written into the open-source code). 

  34. Every industry has the early adopters, the mainstream and laggards, so this is not surprising to me. IMO what's important to understand about bitcoin/crypto is that it's a more efficient system of trust. It's adoption is therefore inevitable. The rest of the conversation is about friction and rates. Billions of people worldwide making individual decisions that are in there own, best self-interest, every day, every minute. Trillions of human transactions.

    "Rates" are key a concept in scientific language. If you hold your arm out straight and drop a rock from chest level why does it take 0.52 seconds to hit the ground? Why not 0.01? Why not 50 seconds? If you boil water on the stove it takes 5 minutes. Why not 1 second? Or a year? Carbon dioxide adsorbs energy in the IR spectrum. More of it in the atmosphere means more retained energy (higher surface temperatures). Ice melts at a certain rate. NYC will be 30 feet underwater in 200 years. It is inevitable at the current atmospheric level. If someone sticks their finger into cold water 15 seconds after it was put on the hot burner, 99% of people intuitively know why it's still cold. They intuitively understand the rate of heating for water probably because they've done this "experiment" many times themselves (i.e., "cooking"). This intuition breaks down completely in more complex systems with (relatively) longer timeframes, and are easily manipulated by people with agendas. They say, gee whiz Al Gore, why isn't NYC underwater yet you liar! That's like asking why the 6 gallon pot of cold water isn't even warm yet after 15 seconds. This is intuitive to me, but not to other people.

    It's the same with crypto – it's more efficient, it's now a rate equation.

  35. MO/Dave – Here it is:



    In the Webinar for the LTP:

    • We have 5 MO 2020 $65 puts we sold for $10, now $14 – those are fine.
    • We are going to buy 10 2020 $50 calls for $7.95 (7,950) 
    • We are going to sell 10 2020 $65 calls for $2.50 ($2,500)

    That will net us into the spread for $450 (using the original put price, it's a $1,550 credit if you do it from scratch) and, when MO recovers a bit we'll sell a few short calls.  I'm also thrilled to roll the short puts to 2x something lower and roll down and double down on the spread if MO drops below $50 but I super-doubt it.

    Upside potential is a very nice $14,550.  

    Bonds/BDC – Interesting way to look at it.

    Rieder: Yeah, I mean, it's an amazing thing. We are now creating a dynamic, so it's — people talk about the issuance and how much Treasury — Treasury's got issue. What they did last month was almost 300 billion worth of bills. It's too much. The market can't absorb that much. But what's happening, is not only they are issuing a tremendous amount, but it has real yield to it. So, what's happening now is not only is the Treasury issuing this massive amount of debt, but it's got an income.

    Today, the Treasury supply, particularly at the front end, is giving you an immense amount of cash flow.



    Rieder: It was one thing when they were issuing Treasury bills at zero for years, like it's not that, and now, well, gosh, I can get bills at close to 2% or maybe even a bit behind that. It's really powerful, and you've changed the whole investment paradigm. When you construct a portfolio or if you're an investor, and it used to be, "My God, how am I gonna get any income out of my portfolio." Well now, I've got an easy way to do it without any risk. That is a big deal.

  36. Phil, where did our nattering buddy go ?

  37. albo--wish he would come back!

    FU NN!!!!!!

  38. Naybob/Albo – No idea.  It has been a while.  He's still doing his own posts and still quoting me.  

    Now we have strong bounces! 

    Nas is furthest away (from 6,660) and /RTY is right on the line at 1,543 so we'll see if they can start legging over.  Still all BS with no volume though.

    Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume
    May 01, 2018 263.8700 264.0699 262.1100 263.8300 263.8300 38,272,818
    Apr 30, 2018 267.2600 267.8900 264.4300 264.5100 264.5100 78,622,800
    Apr 27, 2018 267.0000 267.3400 265.5000 266.5600 266.5600 57,053,600
    Apr 26, 2018 264.7900 267.2500 264.2900 266.3100 266.3100 67,731,900
    Apr 25, 2018 262.9100 264.1300 260.8500 263.6300 263.6300 103,840,900
    Apr 24, 2018 267.7300 267.9800 261.2800 262.9800 262.9800 112,885,500
    • UK manufacturing sector fell to 17-month low of 53.9 compared to forecast of 56.5.
    • The growth of output and new orders eased, while business optimism dipped to a five-month low. Falling backlogs of work, supply-chain constraints and rising stocks of finished goods also signaled that output growth will remain subdued in the coming months.
    • “While adverse weather was partly to blame in February and March, there are no excuses for April’s disappointing performance, making the chances of a near term hike in interest rates by the Bank of England look increasingly remote."
    • Source:
    • Canada's economy grew more than expected in February to 0.4% M/M beating the forecast of 0.3%, following the decline of 0.1% in January.
    • Canada’s economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.0% Y/Y in February, above expectations for a gain of 2.8% and following an increase of 2.7% in the preceding month.
    • The data helped ease concerns over the country’s economic outlook and added to the likelihood that the Bank of Canada will raise rates again before the end of the year.
    • Source:
    • Gordon Haskett leverages its new partnership with data platform Alpha Hat to dissect some traffic trends at Kohl's (KSS -1.9%) stores with the Amazon Returns pilot program.
    • "Based on the analysis, the KSS/AMZN partnership seems to be overwhelmingly accomplishing the goal of driving incremental traffic to Kohl's stores," notes analyst Chuck Grom.
    • Grom observes that Kohl's stores with Amazon returns have outperformed other stores by 8.5% and brought in more new customers. Importantly, Grom also points out that the Amazon-related visitors appear to be staying at the stores to also shop – not just return Amazon purchases.
    • Grom and team have an Accumulate rating on Kohl's and a price target of $75 (23% upside potential).
    • Kohl's is due to report earnings on May 22.
    • Steel equities are leading the underperformance within the metals and mining sector after Pres. Trump said he was delaying steel and aluminum tariffs on the European Union, Mexico and Canada until June 1.
    • Steel equities’ underperformance is led by AK Steel (AKS -8.8%), down as much as 9.8% intraday; also X -7.3%CMC -4.1%STLD -3.6%MT -3.6%RS -3.2%NUE -2.9%.
    • Cowen analyst Chris Krueger says he was slightly surprised that the EU was granted a month exemption without any tangible evidence of progress on quotas; all three trading partners have said they would not bend on quotas, so another month of policy tail risk remains.
    • Aluminum names are mostly lower, but Alcoa (AA +1.1%) is higher after a Brazil federal judge ordered Norsk Hydro (OTCQX:NHYDY) to keep alumina operations at 50%, which Bloomberg analyst Andrew Cosgrove thinks is potentially positive for AA but negative for Century Aluminum (CENX -3.8%).
    • The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME -2.2%) pared its earlier loss, after a large block trade hit the tape when the fund was at session lows.
    • 1:35 p.m.: Zuckerberg wraps up his keynote and hands off to Chief Product Officer Chris Cox by saying that while the company is addressing user privacy, "We also need to keep building, and bringing the world closer together." Shares are now down 0.9%, while the S&P 500 is down 0.7%.
    • 1:32 p.m.: Oculus Go, its stand-alone VR headset, is shipping today, Zuckerberg reveals. It starts at $199, and he draws cheers by saying everyone at the conference goes home with one.
    • 1:28 p.m.: Match Group (NASDAQ:MTCH) has slid 9.3% after Facebook announced its push into the dating space.
    • 1:25 p.m.: Instagram is getting video chat and the AR Camera Effects platform from last year's conference.
    • 1:23 p.m.: Marketplace is now in 70 countries, with more than 800M monthly users. More than 1 in 3 Facebook users in U.S. use Marketplace.
    • 1:22 p.m.: A smiling Zuckerberg says the Facebook app is adding a major push into dating, "not just hookups."
    • 1:21 p.m.: A 10-year development roadmap that Zuckerberg puts on screen points to the conference's agenda: Connectivity (satellite & high altitude tech; telecom infra project; shared infra; Wi-Fi/LTE/mmWave/Fiber; Affordable Access); Artificial Intelligence (Vision; Language; Unsupervised Learning; Reinforcement Learning; Generative Networks; AI Developer Tools); and Virtual and Augmented Reality (Social Presence; Oculus Platform; BCI; PC VR; AR Tech; Stand-alone VR).
    • 1:19 p.m.: A new Groups tab will make Groups more central to the Facebook experience, Zuckerberg says. There will be a new "Join Group" plug-in that sites can use to encourage community building.
    • 1:14 p.m.: "What happened with Cambridge Analytica was a major breach of trust," Zuckerberg says in highlighting changes the company has made since 2014 to increase data privacy (including today's steps to give users a view into, and control of, Web-wide tracking).
    • 1:07 p.m.: It's been an "intense year," Zuckerberg says early in his keynote address. "I want to start by talking about how we're keeping people safe."
    • Facebook's (FB -0.5%) F8 developer conference is set to begin at 1 p.m. ET, with observers looking toward new privacy tools, as the Cambridge Analytica data scandal overshadows usual company happenings.
    • CEO Mark Zuckerberg will set the tone with his keynote address.
    • Stay tuned here for updates on key news from the conference, and watch live.
    • Previously: Facebook to allow users view into Internet-wide tracking (May. 01 2018)
    • Crude oil prices could be headed for their lowest settlement in about two weeks, failing to build on yesterday's gains after Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu accused Iran of engaging in a secret nuclear weapons program; WTI -1.3% at $67.64/bbl, Brent -1.5% at $73.59/bbl.
    • The announcement "did not bring anything new to the table," and the market thus shed some of the earlier gains, says Olivier Jakob of PetroMatrix, adding that "It shows how much the market has already priced in the expectation that Trump will not extend the waivers" on U.S. sanctions against Iran.
    • The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported yesterday that oil production rose to a record 10.26M bbl/day in February.
    • A strong U.S. dollar also weighed on crude prices, as the U.S. dollar index hit its highest level since January.
    • At issue are charges forex traders at the bank used a chat room to improperly share information about client orders.
    • Goldman (NYSE:GS) will pay $55M each to the New York Department of Financial Services and the Federal Reserve.
    • Goldman three years ago joined with eight other banks to pay $2B to settle a class-action suit over forex manipulation.
    • Mazda (OTCPK:MZDAY) unit sales -4.6% Y/Y to 23,056 units.
    • Car sales declined 11.3% to 8,471 units.
    • Truck sales were down 0.2% to 14,585 units.
    • Mazda's sales update: "A mix of the new 2018 Mazda6, now with the option of the SKYACTIV-G 2.5T gasoline turbo engine, and the previous-generation modelled to a sales increase of 29.3 percent year-over-year, with 2,909 vehicles sold in the month of April. Mazda CX-9, Mazda’s seven-passenger crossover SUV, finished the month up 0.2 percent YOY, with 2,138 vehicles sold. Sales of the Mazda CX-9 are up 8.5 percent YTD. Sales of Mazda’s CX-line remain strong, with CX-3, CX-5 and CX-9 collectively reaching 14,585 vehicles sold in the month of April. This number represents a decrease of 0.2 percent YOY, and an increase of 8.1 percent YTD."
    • YTD Mazda U.S. sales +14.8% to 107,051 units.
    • Toyota (NYSE:TM) unit sales -4.7% to 192,428 units vs. -7% forecast by Edmunds.
    • Toyota division sales were down 5.1% 170,706 units. Toyota truck sales rose 1.5% Y/Y.
    • Lexus division sales fell 2.1% to 21,642 units.
    • Camry sales fell 5% but stayed close to the 30K level, while Corolla sales declined 17% to 25,896 units. Prius sales were off 24% to 7,420 units. RAV4 sales fell 2.4% to 31,007 units.
    • Sales by model: Corolla -4.5% to 31,051 units; Prius -21% to 8,735 units; Camry -9.5% to 29,463 units; Lexus ES -7.8% to 4,666; RAV4 +24.7% to 34,120.
    • Toyota's average transaction price fell 0.1% Y/Y to $31,157 during the month, according to KBB.
    • YTD Toyota U.S. sales +4.1% to 764,381 units.
    • Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY -1.4%) unit sales -28.1% to 87,764 units vs. -10.6% forecast by Edmunds.
    • Truck sales down 29.1% Y/Y to 47,916 units. Car sales decreased 34.3% to 39,848 units.
    • Sales growth by brand: Nissan -29.1% to 78,804 units; Infiniti -17% to 8,960 units.
    • Frontier sales were squeezed 19.9% to 5,082 units during the month.
    • YTD Nissan sales fell 6.5% to 503,767 units.

    • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) reports Q2 results aftermarket today and all eyes are on the performance of the iPhone after TSMC reported a weaker-than-expected outlook. Other areas to watch include services revenue and a potential record-breaking capital allocation announcement.
    • Revenue: Consensus expects revenue of $60.91B (Apple guided $60B to $62B), which would represent a 15% Y/Y growth, and EPS of $2.67 (was: $2.10 last year). 
    • Gross margins: Apple guided 38% to 38.5% and consensus sits near 38.5%. 
    • Check iPhones: Apple sold 77.3M iPhones last quarter, which included the holiday season, with an estimated 27M iPhone Xs. Consensus has overall iPhone unit sales of about 52M for Q2 compared to 50.8M units last year. Look at the iPhone average selling price or ASP to know how the newer iPhones performed. Last quarter, the ASP was $796 and a big drop would suggest that the high-priced X hit a sales wall. 
    • More device sales: Shipments of iPads expected at 8.8M units (10.2M last year) and Macs at 4.1M units (4.2M last year). 
    • Seasonality: March is a seasonably slow quarter for Apple, made worse by the contraction of the global smartphone market due in part to people waiting longer to upgrade. 
    • Guidance: Some analysts think the iPhone X sales thud won’t hit until Q3 so if Q2 shows better-than-expected results, check to make sure the guidance doesn’t show that the impact is still coming. Consensus has guidance at revenue of $51.6B and EPS at $2.11. 
    • Services: The Services segment missed analyst expectations last quarter with $8.6B. Consensus has this quarter at $8.4B. 
    • Capital allocation: Analysts expect $75B to $150B in shareholder returns in the form of buybacks and dividends this quarter. 
    • Apple shares are up 1% to $166.92.    
    • Previously: Apple gains on expectations of record capital allocation program (April 30)
    • Previously: Analysts and investors make predictions ahead of Apple earnings (April 30)

  39. Looking at AMGN 168.70 and still falling but combined this with a Jun 8 Strangle 167.5/170 p/c for 8.65 does not look to bad. Combined return 4.22% in 38 days.

  40. closed for 8.63 and 168.69 AMGN

  41. Good article for those interested:  Article explores blockchain technology and how it can enhance business to business companies.

    AMGN/Yodi – It's interesting because they made about $7Bn against a $112Bn valuation until last year, when they got hit for $6Bn in additional taxes, so they only made $2Bn but I have to imagine it was a one-time thing due to repatriation or whatever and that makes them a very good deal down here.  On the other hand, they spent $10Bn on buybacks at $192 and that, clearly, was idiotic so who knows where the correct price is now that they are done with that BS.   A lot of their stuff is going off patent and, instead of building a pipeline – they are buying back stock?  Be careful.

  42. Phil thanks for the comment just entered with 1 play only 8.63 will give some good down side protection for 38 days and than we will see. No risk no gain!

  43. Let's pull the trigger on 10,000 shares of FMCC for the LTP.  At $1.36, they just made 0.80 for the quarter but, of course, the Government stole it as they are still under "Conservership".  Mnuchin says they will review their status and this thing can explode if the Government steps back, even halfway.  

  44. I like shorting /RTY below 1,550.  Lined up with 24,000 (also a good line on /YM), 2,645 and 6,666 (a sign?).

    /SI got back to $16.20 from a low of $16.07, /KC finally ran out of gas at $1.25.  

    All about AAPL earnings now. 

  45. Nope, still going higher.  Dow down "just" 100 now.  

    So silly….

  46. Officially down just 70.

  47. gild…ouch

  48. FTR…nice.

  49. AAPL moving up

  50. AAPL nice beat !. slightly above consensus on guidance for 3Q.  SWKS, QRVO going up too. 

  51. looks like theyre increasing the dividend by 16% too and doing some buybacks (as expected i guess)

  52. Only 100 BILLION share buy back!!

  53. AAPL –  Solid Quarter and good outlook - 

    Apple Reports Second Quarter Results

    Revenue Grows 16 Percent and EPS Grows 30 Percent to New March Quarter Records

    New $100 Billion Share Repurchase Authorization Announced, Dividend Raised by 16 Percent


    “We’re thrilled to report our best March quarter ever, with strong revenue growth in iPhone, Services and Wearables,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO. “Customers chose iPhone X more than any other iPhone each week in the March quarter, just as they did following its launch in the December quarter. We also grew revenue in all of our geographic segments, with over 20% growth in Greater China and Japan.”

    “Our business performed extremely well during the March quarter, as we grew earnings per share by 30 percent and generated over $15 billion in operating cash flow,” said Luca Maestri, Apple’s CFO. “With the greater flexibility we now have from access to our global cash, we can more efficiently invest in our US operations and work toward a more optimal capital structure. Given our confidence in Apple’s future, we are very happy to announce that our Board has approved a new $100 billion share repurchase authorization and a 16 percent increase in our quarterly dividend.”

    The Company will complete the execution of the previous $210 billion share repurchase authorization during the third fiscal quarter.

    Reflecting the approved increase, the Board has declared a cash dividend of $0.73 per share of Apple’s common stock payable on May 17, 2018 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 14, 2018.

    The Company also expects to continue to net-share-settle vesting restricted stock units.

    From the inception of its capital return program in August 2012 through March 2018, Apple has returned $275 billion to shareholders, including $200 billion in share repurchases. The management team and the Board will continue to review each element of the capital return program regularly and plan to provide an update on the program on an annual basis.

    Apple is providing the following guidance for its fiscal 2018 third quarter:

    • revenue between $51.5 billion and $53.5 billion
    • gross margin between 38 percent and 38.5 percent
    • operating expenses between $7.7 billion and $7.8 billion
    • other income/(expense) of $400 million
    • tax rate of approximately 14.5 percent

  54. pirate — aapl???

  55. So AAPL seems to have done OK, right?

    • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): Q2 EPS of $2.73 beats by $0.05.
    • Revenue of $61.1B (+15.5% Y/Y) beats by $160M.
    • Shares +4.2%.
    • Press Release

    Apple declares $0.73 dividend

    • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPLdeclares $0.73/share quarterly dividend, 15.9% increase from prior dividend of $0.63.
    • Forward yield 1.73%
    • Payable May 17; for shareholders of record May 14; ex-div May 11.
    • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPLgains 4.4% aftermarket on Q2 results that beat on EPS, revenue, iPhone and iPad shipments, and Services revenue.  
    • Q3 guidance: Revenue, $51.5B to $53.5B (consensus: $51.6B) with gross margin of 38% to 38.5%, other income of $400M, and a tax rate of 14.5%.
    • Device shipments: iPhone, 52.2M (consensus: 52M; 50.8M last year); iPad, 9.1M (consensus: 8.8M; 10.2M last year); MAC, 4.1M (met consensus; 4.2M last year). 
    • Services: Services revenue grew 31% on the year to $9.19B, above the $8.4B consensus. 
    • China performance: Analysts have been expected Apple to lose Chinese market share due to low demand for premium smartphones. Revenue in the region was up 21% in the quarter to $13B but dropped 27% sequentially. 
    • Capital allocation: $100B share repurchase program and a 16% dividend increase, both in-line with estimates.  
    • Earnings call starts at 5 PM with a webcast available here.
    • Press release.  
    • Apple topped estimates on revenue, earnings, and guidance, boosted the dividend, and set $100B in buybacks. Its shares are higher by 4% in active after hours trade.
    • The Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ:QQQ) has added about 0.5% to its 1.15% gain from the regular session.

    SKT not so much:

    • Q1 FFO of $59.3M or $0.60 per share vs. $57.7M and $0.58 a year ago.
    • Same-center NOI fell 1.5% Y/Y, amid store closures and rough weather.
    • Portfolio occupancy slipped to 95.9% from 96.2% a year ago.
    • Average tenant sales per square foot of $384 up from $380. Same-center tenant sales up 1.7% for LTM ending March 31.
    • Full-year FFO per share guidance is trimmed to $2.40-$2.46 from $2.43-$2.49.
    • Conference call tomorrow at 10 ET
    • Previously: Tanger Factory beats by $0.02, beats on revenue (May 1)
    • SKT down 7.5% after hours
    • A revenue shortfall in Q1 earnings has Snap (NYSE:SNAPdown 17.7% after hours.
    • Revenues grew 54% but fell short of Street targets. Adjusted EBITDA, meanwhile, fell to -$217.9M from last year's -$188.2M, and trailed consensus expectations for -$199.5M.
    • Net loss narrowed to $385.8M from a year-ago loss of $2.21B.
    • Daily active users rose about 15% to 191M; they were up about 2% sequentially, from Q4's 187M.
    • Average revenue per user was $1.21 (up 34% Y/Y, and down 21% from Q4). Cost of revenue per user rose 5% to $1.03.
    • Cash and marketable securities came to $1.8B after a 13% sequential drop in cash burn (to $222M). Capex rose to $36.3M vs. a year-ago $18M, and Q4's $21.2M.
    • Conference call to come at 5 p.m. ET.
    • Press release
    • Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD): Q1 EPS of $1.48 misses by $0.19.
    • Revenue of $5.1B (-21.5% Y/Y) misses by $300M.
    • Shares -4.9%.
    • Press Release
    • Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILDQ1 results ($M): Revenues: 5,088 (-21.8%); net sales: 5,001 (-21.8%).
    • Key product sales: Genvoya: 1,082 (+40.7%); Truvada: 652 (-7.7%); Epclusa: 536 (-39.9%); Harvoni: 348 (-74.6%); Vosevi: 107; Vemlidy: 58 (+427.3%); Biktarvy: 35.
    • Net income: 1,538 (-43.1%); non-GAAP net income: 1,958 (-33.6%); EPS: 1.17 (-42.9%); non-GAAP EPS: 1.48 (-33.6%).
    • 2018 Guidance: Net sales: $20B – 21B (unch).
    • Previously: Gilead Sciences misses by $0.19, misses on revenue (May 1)
    • Frontier Communications (NYSE:FTR) is up 6.8% after hours following a Q1 report where both its net loss and revenue declines were less than expected.
    • Revenues grew sequentially, as did broadband trends, the company said. And it marked its first positive in FiOS additions in its California/Texas/Florida properties since acquiring them from Verizon.
    • Net loss under ASC 605 in Q4 was $1.03B; Q1 net income under ASC 606 was $20M ($14M excluding adoption of ASC 606).
    • EBITDA was $908M.
    • Revenue breakout: Data and Internet Services, $985M (down 0.8%); Voice Services, $702M (down 6.5%); Video Services, $280M (down 19.3%); Other, $135M (up 99%). Subsidy and regulatory revenue was $97M (down 50.8%).
    • Guidance for 2018 is unchanged: EBITDA of about $3.6B, capex of $1B-$1.15B, and operating free cash flow of about $800M.
    • Conference call to come at 4:30 p.m. ET.
    • Press release

    AAPL earnings are insane!   Revenues up 16%, earnings up 30% – they will blow past $50Bn in earnings this year.  

  56. AAPL will make $50B this year and AMZN will end up with a higher market cap because…. reasons!

  57. AAPL /  My key take aways from the conference call today.

    X was the best selling phone every week since announce. This has never happened before.

    They are prepaying / buying ahead components of about $2.5B which – probably OLED.

    This should have impact on EPS in Q4 or Q1.  GM at 38.3 ( even with the buy ahead) – my take

    Expects DRAM price to fall soon, NVRAM top out late year.

    Phone Channel Inv – 5  to 7 wks , with 1.8M unit reduction in qtr – this is key not build up on Phone inv.

    GEO % growth – AMR +17, Greater CHN +21, JPN +22, EU + 9, AP 4%

    145B Net Cash Positive ( and bringing in about 15B CF every Qtr). 

    100B Stk Repurchase does not put a big dent in Net Cash Position ( a major acquisition?) – they still aim to be net cash neutral.

    Services 9.2B 8% seq, 30% YTY growth – Cum to date appx 18B cum.

    Generated Revenue of 149.4B and earnings of 33.9 YTD

    Will focus on repurchase over div. for cap return, view business as very undervalued

    I see Sales at 52.5B and earning at 2.15/sh with  Q4 looking at Rev at 54.5B EPS of about 2.7

  58. Exclusive: Bornstein claims Trump dictated the glowing health letter

  59. Global Stocks Rise Ahead of Fed, Trade Talks