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Final Thursday in May – Back to 2,728 on the S&P 500

Image result for helter skelter

"When I get to the bottom I go back to the top of the slide

Where I stop and I turn and I go for a ride

Till I get to the bottom and I see you again" 

We're closing out the month back at the top of the slide (so far) after a wild couple of days that took the S&P all the way down to 2,675 (down 2%) before blasting back yesterday to retest our 2,728 (strong bounce) line on the S&P 500 (/ES).  We'll have to take today's action with a grain of salt as it's the end of the month and yesterday's up volume on the S&P ETF (SPY) was half (67M) of Tuesday's down volume (115M) so the "rally", as they often are, is half-hearted at best.

We'll wade through a lot of data this morning with Personal Income and Outlays at 8:30, Chicago PMI and Consumer Comfort at 9:45, Pending Home Sales at 10:00, Natural Gas Inventories at 10:30, Oil Inventories at 11 (we're bearish) followed at 1pm by the Fed's Lael Brainard's NYC speech on "Economy and Monetary Outlook" – such fun!  

Brainard is a Fed Centrist so we'll see which way she tilts this afternoon but not much of this matters on a window-dressing day though, as I noted to our Members in yesterday's Live Chat Room, either the end of the month or the beginning of the next month has been cause for a sell-off every time this year.  Since we feel 2,728 on /ES is going to be the top, it makes sense to short the index here (2,725) with tight stops over 2,728, which would be a $150 per contract loss.  

Yesterday, in our Live Trading Webinar, we also discussed shorting the Russell (/RTY) below the 1,650 line, but we're above that now and, of course, we're still happy to short the Nasdaq (/NQ) below the 7,000 line, as we still expect an eventual pullback to 6,500 – and that would pay $10,000 per contract!  

As usual, no one notices that the Dollar tends to drive these reflexive rallies and yestersay was no exception with the Dollar Index (/DX) falling from Tuesday's 94.80 all the way to 93.70 and that's down 1.16%, which puts the +1.3% re-pricing of the S&P into context, doesn't it?  Whether or not the indexes hold up against a rising Dollar will tell the true tale of this market but this morning the Euro should stay strong as strong EU inflation (2%) gives the impression the ECB will have to tighten very soon.  

Another EU market-mover this morning is likely to be Trade War news as Trump desperately tries to distract people from the escalating investigation into, well, everything he's been doing.  One of the reasons Germany's DAX is trading down this morning is due to a rumor that Trump intends to ban the import of luxury cars, which I know sounds ridiculous but it's Trump and we passed ridiculous last summer and we're well into ludicrous these days.  

Any re-escalation of the Trade War is bad but the market has already shrugged it off as if nothing Trump has said actually matters and, hopefully it doesn't but I don't think I'd bet on it.  Just yesterday, Pete Navarro was on NPR, of all places, saying that Steve Mnuchin was speaking out of turn when he said we're going to avoid a Trade War with China.  Here's a sample:

INSKEEP: OK. Just a week ago, the Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the trade war with China was on hold. So why did you resume?

NAVARRO: That was an unfortunate soundbite, basically for two reasons. One is that what we're having with China is a trade dispute, plain and simple. They engage in a whole range of unfair trade practices. They run up a $370 billion trade surplus with us, which costs us over 1 million factory jobs a year. And President Trump basically is going to address that with appropriate measures based on appropriate investigations by people like the United States Trade Representative.

INSKEEP: We get the impression that the products that you're aiming at with these new tariffs are Chinese products that China wants to be a world leader in in this plan that they have a, 2025 strategy, things like artificial intelligence, new energy vehicles like electric cars, robotics, that sort of thing.

NAVARRO:  We're going to, one, the president is going to levy 25 percent tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese exports to us. Now, what are those exports? Those exports are precisely the exports in these China 2025 industries. What China does as a matter of government policy is they target an industry…

INSKEEP: Well, then why is it that the president then suddenly said that he wanted to cut a break to ZTE, this Chinese tech company that repeatedly violated U.S. rules and was sanctioned and then violated even the agreement to get out of the sanctions. Why does the president want to cut them a break, given everything you've just said?

NAVARRO: Forgive me, Steve. As a U.S. government official, I cannot comment on that matter as of yet because it's a law enforcement matter. I can't say any more than that. That's my instructions.

INSKEEP: You can't comment in any way on the president's…

NAVARRO: No, no. As a U.S. government official – on the ZTE case, it's clear. It's a law enforcement issue. I simply can't comment on it. So if we can, it'd be best to move on.

INSKEEP: It doesn't fit with your strategy at all, though?

NAVARRO: It's a law enforcement matter. Justice Department is involved, Commerce is involved…  …The district court's involved. Let's move on.

Image result for trade war chinaThat's the problem with all of Team Trump's messaging these days – they are always just one word away from crossing into one of their scandals – two in this case as Ivanka's Chinese patent grants came up as well.  I think that caused the main message to be lost but the message was loud and clear – we are sanctioning China and the Trade War is ON!  

It's hard to see what it is we need to protect – American Tech Companies seem to be doing just fine – especially if you look over at the Nasdaq as it approaches the 7,000 mark, up from 4,000 less than 2 years ago so 75% gains in 24 months has got to be considered impressive, right?  This is not looking overvalued at all, is it?

We're "only" 40% higher than we were in the Dot Com bubble and that was almost 20 years ago but, of course, at the time, people thought it had been a big mistake to pay 100x earnings for companies and now those are the dips we buy – so times do change and this time is different yadda, yadda, yadda…


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  1. Good Morning, All!

    The webinar replay is now available!

  2. Trump message / Phil – There is just so much going on now that their message is simply obfuscation and deligitimization of the system. There was a good discussion last night about the direction that it could go – for example refusing to accept the results of an election because the numbers cannot possibly be trusted when they are counted by enemies of the administration. It sounds hyperbolic but there are things happening today with this guy that we thought would not be possible only 2 years ago – the level of corruption, the attacks on institution like the law enforcement and the complete lack of oversight from Congress who 2 years ago would have been rushing to investigate one of the Obama kids for grade inflation.

  3. Some advice from another possible Buffett:

    • Read (all day if you can)
    • Think independently
    • Make few investments. Hold them for a long time.
    • Buy at a reasonable price
    • Sell your mistakes and hold the successes

  4. Maybe we should be more cautious – there are some warning signs:

  5. Good morning!

    Phil- still holding 2 shorts of rty overnight, was wondering will you still add? I understand you got 8 shorts but if your in my shoes, I Guess you will scale in but at which point you will take the lost, like when the index are at which levels

  6. JILL - Jill beats by $0.10, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS; revs in-line; comps +2.3%; sees Q2 comps flat to positive log single digits.

    Stock up big.

    Selling 1/3.

  7. ~~GM shares soar on $2.25B investment for self-driving cars.

    ~~Detroit — Shares of General Motors Co. soared nearly 10 percent in premarket trading Thursday after the carmaker announced it will get more than $2 billion from the world's largest technology investor to boost the company's autonomous vehicle launch in 2019.

  8. Good morning!

    What a relief just to get back to last night's lows on /ES and /RTY – I'm keeping tight stops here to lock in small losses!  

    I still think we go lower but was down about $7,000 this morning so down $2,000 is a happy way to start my day!  

    Big Chart – NYSE is over the line so all is well until it isn't

    Message/StJ – Yeah, the message is chaos at the moment and things are getting worse, not better.  

    Simpson/StJ – Well, it's pretty much exactly what Buffett says.  I say that too – I guess I need a better publicist!  

    Love that chart, StJ – Sums things up nicely.

    /RTY/Dave – As noted above, I'm thrilled to get out with a small loss at this point as the market has not been cooperating.  -$2K I already made up on the /CL short as we just hit $67 (quick $500 per contract) so no sense in being greedy.  Living to fight another day is the most important thing you can do in Futures Trading!  

    Great call Albo, blowing through our targets:

    03-Jan-18 09:06 ET


    J. Jill target raised to $15 from $11 at Deutsche Bank; Buy  (8.14).

    Also OOPS !    Think its worth a shot at $3.85.

    JILL/Not too many around us but looks good.   Small but good growth and I like the fact they aren't over-expanding.

    Debt peaked out at $254M in 2016 and they paid down $33M last year but still had $60M in cash flow.  Options only go out to Aug, unfortunately, as it's a fairly new $200M stock.  Still, you can sell the Aug $5 puts for $1.20 to net in for $3.80 and leave it at that as it's a nice 6-month return or you can add the $2.50 ($2.15)/$5 (0.70) bull call spread for $1.45 and you net into the $2.50 spread for 0.25 and your break-even is about $3.75.  

    GM/Albo – That's going to really piss off the Chinese that we have no problem with letting Japanese companies invest in US manufacturers.  

  9. DLTR 

    Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR) falls sharply after missing Q1 estimates and setting full-year profit guidance short of expectations.

    The company sees FY19 EPS of $5.32 to $5.62 vs. $5.25 to $5.60 prior and $5.64 consensus estimate. On the top line, Dollar Tree sees Fy19 revenue of $22.73B to $23.05B vs. $22.97B consensus.

    Dollar Tree management cites higher shrink, distribution costs and occupancy expenses as drags on Q1 profit.

    CEO uopdate: "We are pleased with the acceleration in sales we have seen in the first several weeks of our second quarter. Both our Dollar Tree and Family Dollar banners are focused on meeting customer needs through delivering great values and convenience every day. I believe we are well-positioned to deliver increased value to long-term shareholders by continuing to grow and improve our businesses."

    DLTR -7.66% premarket to $88.97.

  10. I have a lunch meeting so will be gone from 11:30 to about 1:30.

  11. Good Morning.

  12. Is it me, or does it seem that business is more confident than their consumers?…..

  13. DLTR – Sold some '20 80 Puts this AM on this….  integration is still in progress, took it on the chin today 

  14. You are on a great run Albo…. 

  15. FWIW  I have a lakefront rental that I have up and running for 3 years. This summer has been a total bust. Last year I raised prices as I was getting so many bookings and pressure. Still was booked wall to wall. This year I lowered prices since the early bookings were not coming in, BUT it is still incredibly slow. No traffic on roads, camp ground basically empty. Something is going on and it may be a start of recession. The other odd thing is, nothing is for sale? No listings, or very few. Very strange indeed. Like everyone holding their breath?

  16. DLTR/Batman – Shrinkage!  Not good.  I don't get the occupancy expenses excuse though, they are giving commercial real estate away these days. 

    More confident/1020 – The problem is the business owners are in the Top 10-1% and they think things are fantastic with their new tax cuts and record-high stocks, etc.  If you think about it, how many people in the bottom 50% do you even come in contact with during the day?  People making less than $24,000 a year?  For people managing companies – it's just the cleaning people in their office, who they certainly don't hang out with and then the service people they come across during the day so their impression – from the people they actually talk to – is that things are fantastic. 

    Take SBUX for example, they are so sorry that they kicked people out for being black but they are not sorry they charge $5 for a cup of coffee….

    Traffic/Pirate – I think gas prices are hitting people very hard.  The luxury vacation market is booming, I got kicked out of my room at the 4 seasons in DC because the Saudi Prince wanted the floor (we had 2 rooms booked and they gave us a 3rd for free to make up for it).  Disney is packed wall to wall this summer – we're going in Aug and had to pull favors just to get dinner reservations.  So the people with money (Top 10%) are having a ball but I don't think that's the Lakefront crowd, is it?

  17. STJ / Simpson – I've been following him since he left BRK… Lives in Florida and has a private investment fund.  Super investor.

  18. Anyone short /RB?

  19. I wish PSW had like buttons.  I wish the permalinks could be bookmarked within site. 

    • EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude -4.2M barrels vs. -0.4M consensus, +5.8M last week.
    • Gasoline +0.5M barrels vs. +1.9M last week.
    • Distillates +0.6M barrels vs. -1.0M last week.
    • Futures -1.48% to $67.2.

    This is not bullish, gasoline build is bad and the rest is shuffling inventory. 

    I DD'd on my /RB short at 2.195 so 4 avg 2.189 at the moment and I'm good going to my meeting on that note.  

    Nice little profits on the indexes in the end! 

  20. Bank bailouts are in our future:

    The dispensability of each of these individual provisions in isolation is the problem. Obama-era legislation known as Dodd-Frank, after its two main congressional sponsors, largely eschewed big bank structural reform in favor of dozens of separate efforts to plug gaps and tighten screws. Now the powers that be are systematically loosening screws, unplugging gaps, and widening loopholes. That’s true on the level of formal legislation and rulemaking and equally importantly in terms of the pace and vigor of enforcement and oversight activity.

    While it’s no surprise that Republicans are acting to undo a law they almost uniformly opposed when it passed in 2010, back then, Republicans claimed to have alternate solutions to the problems with the pre-crisis regulatory framework.

    Today they’ve completely given up on those alternate solutions. They’re tearing down the safeguards and putting nothing in their place while assuming, rightly, that nobody is paying attention. One day there will be a price.

  21. Wheeee, there you go.  Can't let the initial reaction fool you on those reports – more important to think about what it means and play it the way the data sends you!  

    Back to 2 short now with a nice profit and a stop over 2.18.

    Back after my meeting.

  22. what just made the nasdaq shoot higher?

  23. Nq/jabo- no idea I added a few shorts. New tarrifs etc that’s seem negative news to be.

  24. 159 days until the mid-term elections

  25. October surprise BDC?

  26. you never know. I think the formula they have is currently working: grind your base further into poverty so the blame immigrants and  "libruls" even more. It's a vicious downward sprial that is shockingly effective.

  27. If one believes that fortune favors the bold, then here is one for consideration: 

    JBS S.A. (JBSAY)- Headquartered in Sao Paulo, Brazil, JBS is the largest meat processor in the world. 150 facilities worldwide process beef, chicken, pork plus by products from processing (leather, cosmetics, etc.) . The company has 150 plants around the globe and they own several US brands- Swift; Pilgrims Pride.

    JBS got its nose bloodied when the Batista's got nailed for bribery. They spread a lot of money around to Brazilian pols. They walked away with a financial fine after helping to catch the Brazilian president's hand in the cookie jar. Brazil’s sordid tale of beef and bribes 

    The Batista family still maintains control (42%) so the foxes still own the hen house. 

    Stock has traded down lately probably due to disruption from the Brazilian truckers strike. Brazil’s Temer Vows to End Strike and Continue Economic Overhauls . 

    The JBS annual report  reads like an extended press release with little actual data for analysis. However, what numbers that are reported indicate good revenue, cash flow and net profit  plus some debt reduction. 

    Here is the investment premise. JBS owns 78% of US based Pilgrims Pride (PPC) whose market cap is $5.2B and JBS's market cap is $6.7B. Assuming PPC is worth its stock price, JBS's share is worth $4B. So the balance of JBS can be had theoretically for $2.7B or approximately $2/share. 

    Unfortunately no options on JBS stock. Perhaps later as there has been some consideration of a US IPO. 

    I have an order in for some shares below current market to see if it comes in. Would appreciate any insights others may have.

  28. Woo-hoo on /RB – Taking that money and running now!

    Like I said, better to take the small loss and find something else to trade – there's always another opportunity around the corner – IF you don't lose your money…

    I figure the green line will be bouncy and I certainly didn't expect to make $4,000 so I'm happy to cash it and look for the next good trade.  

    Nas was strange – does anyone know what that was?

  29. Index/Phil- I’m holding rty shorts and nq…. I’m bearish or you think it’s good to take profits? Nothing seem to good news after the tarrifs was introduced 

  30. /KC with a nice pop today.  

    Formula/BDC – Sadly, a great point.  

    JBSAY/Pstas – Great analysis.  Only monkey wrench is, if their guys go out of power, you can expect retribution to fall on them so keep an eye on the politics.  

    /RTY/Dave – Well, it depends how uncomfortable you were when it was going against you last night.  For me, we're taking a two-week vacation at Disney in Aug and on the Disney Cruise so I'll be spending about $10K on misc stuff if things go well and $5K if they don't so +/- $5K on a trade is just the difference between dinner at Roy's or dinner at Roy Rogers or whether we take the Range Rover tour of the island with the gourmet picnic or whether we bike to a beach barbeque. 

    None of it hurts me or my family in any way if I happen to lose, so I went to bed last night and didn't even worry about the open trade.  If you were sweating over the loss, then it's madness not to take the profits.  As noted above – I cashed it all in because I was just happy not to have to go to Roy Rogers and now I just paid for 1/2 the trip with the /RB trade.  So it's not about whether I think it's good to take profits – it's ALWAYS good to take profits – don't be greedy!  

  31. Trudeau is trying to appeal to the American people over Trump saying "We have to believe at some point that common sense will prevail." – GOOD LUCK PIERRE!  

  32. Canada is announcing retaliatory tariffs.  

    I hope we have enough shorts!  

  33. Any news on LB?

  34. ETSY is a stock I've been trading for some time.  Keeps hitting new highs. Thought that they would have been bought out some time ago.   Looks overpriced to me, but shorted a few more Jan 2020 $15 puts for pocket change.  They are now some 17 points out of the money.

    Joined you guys in ETM.  Stock at new low and yielding 5.20%+.  Yield should support the stock in here.  Sold 20 December 6 puts  for .45.  Will add some stock and sell some calls if it drops farther.

  35. LB/Jeff – Went ex-dividend today so I guess someone was waiting to sell. 

  36. a very very sad day in canadian us relations  

  37. LB their div is .60 but the drop is 1.86. Nether trusted this stock.

  38. China’s Mighty Piggy Bank Is Shrinking

  39. Index/Phil- I closed my RTY shorts, Rb shorts. total c. $5k…. holding my nq shorts at avg 7000 to sleep… I feel at 7000 is good line to hold overnight… hopefully I don't get screwed…
    Thanks for teaching how to read the lines!

  40. LB/Yodi – They are making $3 per $33 share and paying a $2.40 (7%) dividend.  They also bought back $400M of stock last year and the year before, which is 5% of the company and still $1.5Bn in the bank.  Hard for me to lose interest…

    Good job Dave, just in time too!  

    Well, we found a floor and now back to see how we bounce. 

    So 2,728 to 2,675 we'll call 50 so 10-point bounces to 2,685 and 2,695 (strong) got blown through so now we watch the 10-point retrace lines at 2,718 (weak) and 2,708 (strong) to see if we break back into the bullish end of the channel.  

    As I've pointed out though, the end/beginning of months has been a good time to short – so I'm not going to place any long bets and I cashed my shorts so just watching into tomorrow, I guess.

  41. Oops, should have mentioned that bigger picture is 2,740 to 2,680 so 60 points is 12-point bounces 2,692 and 2,704, which is what just held up this afternoon.  That's kind of a bullish sign considering the bad news.

    • California’s electric utility companies plan to spend $738M on charging infrastructure for electric vehicles under a series of proposals approved by the state's Public Utilities Commission.
    • Pacific Gas and Electric (PCG +0.7%) agrees to spend $22M to install infrastructure for more than 230 direct current fast-charging stations and $236M on infrastructure and rebates to support electric trucks, buses and other medium or heavy-duty vehicles, and Southern California Edison (EIX -0.3%) will spend $343M on similar efforts.
    • Together, the two utilities are expected to help install chargers at more than 1,500 sites, supporting 15,000 medium- or heavy-duty vehicles such as municipal and school buses.
    • Sempra Energy's (SRE +0.4%) San Diego Gas & Electric says it will provide rebates for as many as 60K customers to install home charging stations and offer installation services, totaling $137M.
    • Square (SQ +0.3%) stock has jumped by half  since the payment tech company introduced Bitcoin trading in November for its Cash App customers, racking up $8B in market value.
    • In the past year, the shares have more than doubled, observe Bloomberg reporters Lily Katz and Selina Wang, with no signs of slowing down.
    • Cryptocurrency isn't the only thing supporting the shares, though. Its pending purchase of Weebly for $365M, a string of better-than-expected earnings, and prospects for continued growth also helped.
    • “Square’s integrated hardware, software and services solutions position the company to benefit from ongoing card acceptance penetration at smaller merchants while gaining share against existing solutions that lag from a technological or efficiency-basis,” wrote RBC Capital Markets analyst Daniel Perlin.
    • Previously: Square's Dorsey is sure of cryptocurrency's future, just not sure which one (May 16)
    • Boeing (BA -1.6%) CEO Dennis Muilenburg says "we don't see any immediate or significant impact" from U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and is optimistic that the U.S. and China will work together to hammer out fair trade terms.
    • "We remain hopeful that the U.S. and China will reach a conclusion that is productive for both countries," Muilenberg tells, noting "the world will need 41,000 new airplanes and more than 7,000 of them will be in China. We are doing well in China, and our Chinese customers are very important to us."
    • The stakes are high for Boeing, as ~70% of the company's planes delivered in 2017 were to countries outside the U.S., including 22% to China.

  42. The thing about Trump and hi family (er, "adminisitration") is they represent complete, as in 100.0% in totality, self-enrichment, graft and corruption. So this gives us the ability to track to what extent the systems of the State are corruptible, since no one could be more than 100% corrupt and self-interested. With democrats (and mostly previous GOP admins until this one) there is some level of Kumbayah that goes on, in between their self-dealings, that has something to do with representing the masses that elected them. With Trump there is ABSOLUTELY NONE. He's is 100% get mine get mine. Just look at Pruitt. Good grief.

    It is, beyond the stretch of reasonable imagination that Trump' "base" could support him considering if even one of the 1000 scandals with his name on it had occurred under a democrat admin (beyond the insufferableness of a "tan suit" aside, of course).

    I'm basically down to the Supreme Leader theory. Trumpism is like a cult. Cults are kooky, but they are DEVOTED. Trump enables their rage and then lets them know who they direct their rage at is acceptable. It is so important to understand this: Everything else is meaningless in comparison to this power. Germany was the same way in the 1930's. Once you have people under this trance you can do whatever you want ("shoot someone in 5th avenue"). Sleep with a porn star while leading the parade with the Moral Values Sceptor? Check. They don't care. The only difference between the US now and Germany in 1934 is Trump has support from 40% of the population and Hitler has 60. That's it. Remember: Everything Hitler did was legal.

    People write about trump's fatal flaw but it's aggravating; he doesn't have one. From the perspective of trying to make the United States into a totalitarian state he's basically redlining as close to 100% test scores, that's A+ territory, that one could possibly achieve. He's completely overthrown the GOP party which looks absolutely nothing lie it  did in 2000-2008, let alone the "Reagan era." Down-ticket GOP candidates are tripping over themselves to broadcast who's the bigger Trump lover. Once the economy falls apart, he goes from 40% to 60%, just like Hitler, and then it's over. From that obviously correct perspective, ask yourself, what possible motivation would he have not to tank the economy? You don't think for one second that the tariff bullshit is whimsical do you? I have a bridge to sell you.

    This is a brand. We've never seen anything like this before. Trump is everything. The legislature is controlled by the GOP, they haven't passed anything (except that must-do to 0.01% tax cut). They are an entire branch of government you never even hear about anymore. The Supreme court got their stolen seat and rubber stamp trump's garbage 5-4 so you never hear about them any more. The government and State institutions change every day a little bit further and a little bit more and it's just enough that we don't notice from day to day but aggregate effect is a monumental shift. 

  43. BDC – Don't know that there was an anti-Hitler sentiment in Germany like we have an anti-Trump one here at this time. Tanking the economy here might have the opposite effect. Remember, in Germany the entire population felt aggrieved by the the reparations that had been (in retrospect wrongly) imposed by the Allies at the end of WWI. In the US, only a minority feels that way now – white, older and evangelical people mostly. So don't know that we get to 60%. At least I hope I am right!

  44. The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. Winston Churchill

    Our Reality.  :(

  45. Attitude is a little thing that makes a big difference.  Winston Churchill

    We'll get thru this.   :)

  46. Kites rise highest against the wind – not with it.   Winston Churchill


    Pretty Smart Guy….

  47. StJ – I hope you wrong too but your history is misguided. A lot of people were against Hitler in Germany, they were strategically silenced via the propaganda machine and once war started, their kids were conscripted and then it was totally over. 

    For the midterms we are going to see a lot of this because the strategy is Unleash the Anger. This will be a new and hocking phase that makes the previous "slow creep" of fascism phase seem delicate and pleasant in comparison. This is assured to occur. Consider the following statistics: 76% of the trump's nazis think the media makes up lies, 60% think they are the "enemy of america."

    Here's what fascism, hatred and anger inevitably and always ends up looking like. Take a good look at it. This is what Trump and his base want for America.

  48. 76%/BDC, "76% of trump's nazis" + Hillary Clinton think the media makes up lies      

    "(CNN)Hillary Clinton, speaking in public Thursday for one of the first times since losing the presidential election a month ago, called the proliferation of fake news an epidemic."

  49. BDC, I'm confused here, particularly 40% to 60% of what? and "what possible motivation?" - can you elaborate? Are you saying Trump thinks it would be good for him to tank the economy?

    Once the economy falls apart, he goes from 40% to 60%, just like Hitler, and then it's over. From that obviously correct perspective, ask yourself, what possible motivation would he have not to tank the economy? You don't think for one second that the tariff bullshit is whimsical do you? I have a bridge to sell you.

  50. Not a pretty finish.

    MU took a big hit today.

    No news, just MS cutting them to equal weight.  

    Things are so overbought.

    As to Hitler, his opponents were pretty much all executed – the vocal ones, anyway, so it's hard to say what you would do if everyone who speaks up around you is hauled off to a camp – never to be heard from again.  It's nice to think you'd stand up but try going to Dallas and making BDC's speech in a bar and you'll see what I mean…

    COST beats but not enough to keep the stock over $200.

  51. Phil – on the bright side, in 1945 the Soviets gave the highest level ration cards to "intellectuals ad artists" (see my previous link, it's a good read). I certainly would not have wanted to be a young woman around that time, that is for sure.

    Phil/Dallas Bar – unfortunately I'm just another coward amongst cowards. I would never do it. I just kiss my wife and daughter every day and thank God we have one more day of this Gift of Life because I know every Trump supporter is trying to fulfill their idiotic miserable march to Revelation-inspired death (which they want to take everyone with them of course). It's the tired, old "my life is so miserable but my moron-fantasy afterlife is so great I can't wait to die" routine. 87 virgins or something. It's all so stupid.

    ilene/60% – Trump needs the economy to tank to get from his current support (<40%) to Hitler's (>60%). Most  people think this is trump's fatal flaw, that is, his support will tank with the economy and I think exactly the opposite, so therefore he's actively trying achieve this.

  52. BDC – that's what it seemed you might be saying but I would think it would go the other way, i.e., a tanking economy would hurt Trump rather than prop him up. Guess I don't see your reasoning there.  Am I missing something?

  53. To me this discussion feels like back in 2009-2014 when people like to retro-fit stock chart patterns to historical patterns like the ones from 2000 or 1929, etc.   History tends to rhyme, but it doesn't repeat exactly.  Its a different world now, with different technologies and different set of values and different people who are able to vote and control the levers of power.  What I find so fascinating is that Trump really IS building a wall:  He's building a whole new "Wall of Worry" in the stock market.  Its amazing. 

  54. ilene – I don't think you are missing something. We just disagree on it.

  55. The whole tanking economy helps Hitler (I mean Trump, oops) is an interesting hypothesis. I'd like to think it couldn't happen here but the decline of our empire and current state of affairs does make me wonder. How many trillions of debt will it take? With perpetual war it may not take long. These things happen slowly, then all of a sudden.

  56. I see Trump as less Hitler and more Nero.

  57. Too true, tangled.

  58. That's true, Nero was not only a head of state, but also a talentless entertainer who craved the recognition! Very appropriate comparison.