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Trade War Tuesday – Trump Fires off Another $200Bn in Tarrifs, China Fires Back

Image result for trump china trade warWheeeeeeee!!! 

Isn't this fun?  Diplomacy via twitter is a case of voters getting exactly what they deserve and we'll see how much the market suffers for it.  We gave you hedges yesterday that can turn $2,000 into $10,000 and it's the same hedge I gave you two weeks ago that could turn $500 into $10,000 so I don't feel at all bad when I say "I told you so" as I ranted on and on all month about how this was going to escalate and end badly

This, by the way, is not the end, this is just the beginning as Trump the First has asked for ANOTHER $200Bn worth of tariffs on Chinese goods in retaliation for the $34Bn worth of tariffs they put on our goods which was a retailiation against the $50Bn we put on their goods first.   

The new duties will go into effect "if China refuses to change its practices, and also if it insists on going forward with the new tariffs that it has recently announced," the president said in a statement provided by the White House late on Monday.  Meanwhile, Trump is fighing Congress tooth and nail to REMOVE sanctions against ZTE – because he was paid $500M to do that, so the real message to China is "PAY ME!"  This is why you don't negotiate with terrorists – it only makes them come back for more…

Beijing has already said they will retailiate, saying: "This practice of extreme pressure and blackmail deviates from the consensus reached by both parties on many occasions and is disappointing for the international community. The United States has initiated a trade war that violates market laws and is not in accordance with current global development trends," the Commerce Ministry said.

Image result for putin laughing animated gifSeriously people, let's step back for a second to consider that CHINA has just accused the US of BLACKMAIL and of violating International Laws and undermining diplomacy – all in one paragraph!  President Trump is undoing 70 years of hard-faught diplomatic steps that have given us 70 years of relative peace and prosperity.  Who actually benefits from Trump single-handedly upending the World Order? 

The clock is now ticking as we have until July 6th when the first round of tariffs kick in on both sides and good luck getting Trump to skip a golf vacation around July 4th (he wanted a military parade in his honor with giant missiles and tanks rolling down Pennsylvania Avenue, but that's on hold until November), so we really only have about 10 days to fix the World before things really go off the rails.

Crazy, but that's how it goes
Millions of people living as foes
Maybe. it's not too late
To learn how to love, and forget how to hate

Mental wounds not healing
Life's a bitter shame
I'm goin' off the rails on a crazy train

One person conditioned to rule and control
The media sells it and you live the role
Ozzy

Image result for putin laughing animated gifSpeaking of going off the rails in two weeks – that's exactly how long Angela Merkel has to save her Government over immigration issues that are tearing Germany apart.  Only in this case, it's the opposite of the US as Merkel is firmly against turning away immigrants (being from East Germany herself) while her Conservative opponents want to Make Germany Great Again (MGGA) by rejecting non-Germans (what could possibly go wrong?).

Using the same and possibly also Russia-backed talking points that the GOP is using in the US, Merkel's opponents are not backing down on kicking immigrants out – they are simply giving her two weeks to make deals with other nations to accept them – or else they will pull their support from her Government, causing it to collapse which will then require elections where once-again, the Putin-backed party can take power!  

Even the negotiations themselves will test the credibility of the entire EU as these immigrants are from other EU nations and should, under EU law, be freely accepted.  Merkel will have to spend political capital, call in favors and twist arms to get a deal and stay in power so, even if she wins – here political capital will be expended and her powers greatly diminished and then all it will take is one crime they can pin on immigrants and the Conservatives blame Merkel and take power anyway.  It's a brilliant plan that will cost us the only World leader, besides China's Xi, that can still stand up to Putin.  

President Donald Trump weighed in on the debate on Monday, writing in a tweet that “The people of Germany are turning against their leadership as migration is rocking the already tenuous Berlin coalition.”

That tweet, by the way, sounds more authentic if you say it with a Russian accent…

As I noted yesterday, we exect the S&P to re-test 2,728 so we're right on track this morning and looking like we''ll hit 2,773 so another 45 points to fall from here before we even TEST the top of the range we expected to be in for the rest of the Summer. 

I'm still expecting Tesla (TSLA) to be the catalyst that wrecks the Nasdaq as it becomes this century's Pets.com.   Already you can see the wheels falling off the wagon as Model S cars spontaneously combust and Musk blames "saboteurs" for delays at the factory.  Now, whether there really are saboteurs seeking to undermine Elon's production goals or whether he is insane and paraniod or whether he's just making it up to cover up the fact that there was never any way they would hit his promised June 30th deadline of making 5,000 cars a week – any of those items is a good reason to get the F out of TSLA stock, right?  

We were hoping it would get back to $380 before we shorted it (see last week's notes as well as this good article by Dave Pinsen) but that's not looking too likely now so the trade idea we'll put in our Short-Term Portfolio is:

  • Sell 3 TSLA July $380 calls for $18 ($5,400) 
  • Buy 4 TSLA July $435 ($70)/$400 ($42) bear put spreads at $28 ($11,200)

That's net $5,800 on the $14,000 spread and we'll make $8,200 (141%) if TSLA is below $380 on July 20th (expiration day).  In a bear put spread, we buy the July $435 puts and sell the July $400 puts so anything below $400 pays us the full $35 and that's $14,000 but we owe back money to the short caller for anyting TSLA is above $380 so could be $6,000 if they are at $400 – but that would still be a nice profit.  

Meanwhile, our DXD spread looks good at the moment and we'll see how bouncy the Nasdaq (/NQ) is off the 7,200 line but our premise for shorting the Nasdaq last week was that Apple (AAPL) would have a hard time getting past the $1Tn mark and there are too many 100x earnings companies and we fully expect TSLA to be the first company that makes the crowd realize that some of these emperors have no clothes at all!  

www.philstockworld.com

Be careful out there.

 


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  1. How can you listen to these tapes of kids being separated and not feel anger for the entire situation. Trump and the entire administration are all sociopaths… There is a special place in hell for people like them. And especially for people like Pence, Sessions or Sanders whose Christianity seems to have limits – protect babies before they are born, but take away their healthcare when they are born or separate them from their parents!


  2. What can we learn from Buffett:

    https://blog.thinknewfound.com/2018/06/inferring-the-statistics-of-buffetts-alpha/

    What investors should take away from Buffett’s track record is that the discipline to weather the short-term underperformance was crucial for realizing the long-term outperformance.


  3. Going to be tough for solar going forward with tariffs, but still going strong:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-12/solar-surpasses-gas-and-wind-as-biggest-source-of-new-u-s-power

    Developers installed 2.5 gigawatts of solar in the first quarter, up 13 percent from a year earlier, according to a report Tuesday from the Solar Energy Industries Association and GTM Research. That accounted for 55 percent of all new generation, with solar panels beating new wind and natural gas turbines for a second straight quarter.


  4. Speaking of solar – these guys are investing big:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-a-florida-utility-became-the-global-king-of-green-power-1529331001

    NEP is not cheap though! The dividend is OK but it looks like growth is better than traditional utilities. Any thoughts Phil?


  5. Good Morning.


  6. Thanks for all of your efforts, StJean!  :)


  7. Just controlling my anger right now 1020!


  8. ;)


  9. FU NFLX!!!!


  10. That /SI range continues to shine and is a nice distraction from stocks like GE! Flat again but starting to nibble on longs this morning. 


  11. Good morning!

    NYSE now below 200 dma at 12,595 so nothing to be bullish about until they are back over 12,600.

    Dow is right at the 50 dma of 24,633 (below at the moment) and if that's not bouncy – look out below! 

    So cal it a drop from 25,400 and 5% lower is 24,100 and a bounce from there (1,300 points) would be call it 250 so 24,450 (weak) and 24,700 (strong) should provide support if we're going to hold the 5% line.  So far, 24,700 failed so 24,450 better hold and we haven't tested that yet but watch out now for 24,700 to act like a ceiling this morning – that indicates we're probably consolidating for a move lower.

    NOW, we have our phantom bounce lines IF the Dow falls 5% so now we turn our attention to the bounce lines we're seeing which means we take 25,400 to 24,600 so 800 points and call it 150-point bounces to 24,750 (weak) and 24,900 (strong) so that's twice 24,700-50 comes into play so we can expect it to be a strong bone of contention on the way up. 

    Also keep in mind that 24,700(ish) is where the Dow started the year, so below that is negative for 2018.

    So now we have to say, who is the laggard on the way down for the year?

    So that's why we're short the Nas and Russell – they have the furthest to fall but, since the main issue is trade and they are less susceptible to trade issues than large caps and industrials, they are not yet getting hit very hard but then we have to remember my tugboat theory in which the indexes may go their own way – but only to a certain point and then the rope snaps them back in line with the main body.

    Also note our TSLA trade for the STP in the main post:

    We were hoping it would get back to $380 before we shorted it (see last week's notes as well as this good article by Dave Pinsen) but that's not looking too likely now so the trade idea we'll put in our Short-Term Portfolio is:

    • Sell 3 TSLA July $380 calls for $18 ($5,400) 
    • Buy 4 TSLA July $435 ($70)/$400 ($42) bear put spreads at $28 ($11,200)

    That's net $5,800 on the $14,000 spread and we'll make $8,200 (141%) if TSLA is below $380 on July 20th (expiration day).  In a bear put spread, we buy the July $435 puts and sell the July $400 puts so anything below $400 pays us the full $35 and that's $14,000 but we owe back money to the short caller for anyting TSLA is above $380 so could be $6,000 if they are at $400 – but that would still be a nice profit


  12. /NG/Phil- picking some NGV8?


  13. Kids/StJ – I'm outraged, of course, but not about some selected audio – you can get that at a Yankee game when they kids aren't allowed in the VIP club…  What's really sick here is that we are committing ATROCITIES – the kind we read about in history books as example of evil empires that we are glad were wiped from the face of the Earth while wondering how the people of the times didn't rise up and throw those barbarians out of power for committing such sins in their name. 

    In fact, I'm so pissed, I'm going to make everyone read my weekend warning against complacency again:

    They Thought They Were Free

    The Germans, 1933-45

    An excerpt from

    Milton Mayer

    But Then It Was Too Late

    "What no one seemed to notice," said a colleague of mine, a philologist, "was the ever widening gap, after 1933, between the government and the people. Just think how very wide this gap was to begin with, here in Germany. And it became always wider. You know, it doesn’t make people close to their government to be told that this is a people’s government, a true democracy, or to be enrolled in civilian defense, or even to vote. All this has little, really nothing, to do with knowing one is governing.

    "What happened here was the gradual habituation of the people, little by little, to being governed by surprise; to receiving decisions deliberated in secret; to believing that the situation was so complicated that the government had to act on information which the people could not understand, or so dangerous that, even if the people could not understand it, it could not be released because of national security. And their sense of identification with Hitler, their trust in him, made it easier to widen this gap and reassured those who would otherwise have worried about it.

    "This separation of government from people, this widening of the gap, took place so gradually and so insensibly, each step disguised (perhaps not even intentionally) as a temporary emergency measure or associated with true patriotic allegiance or with real social purposes. And all the crises and reforms (real reforms, too) so occupied the people that they did not see the slow motion underneath, of the whole process of government growing remoter and remoter.

    "You will understand me when I say that my Middle High German was my life. It was all I cared about. I was a scholar, a specialist. Then, suddenly, I was plunged into all the new activity, as the university was drawn into the new situation; meetings, conferences, interviews, ceremonies, and, above all, papers to be filled out, reports, bibliographies, lists, questionnaires. And on top of that were the demands in the community, the things in which one had to, was ‘expected to’ participate that had not been there or had not been important before. It was all rigmarole, of course, but it consumed all one’s energies, coming on top of the work one really wanted to do. You can see how easy it was, then, not to think about fundamental things. One had no time."

    "Those," I said, "are the words of my friend the baker. ‘One had no time to think. There was so much going on.’"

    "Your friend the baker was right," said my colleague. "The dictatorship, and the whole process of its coming into being, was above all diverting. It provided an excuse not to think for people who did not want to think anyway. I do not speak of your ‘little men,’ your baker and so on; I speak of my colleagues and myself, learned men, mind you. Most of us did not want to think about fundamental things and never had. There was no need to. Nazism gave us some dreadful, fundamental things to think about—we were decent people—and kept us so busy with continuous changes and ‘crises’ and so fascinated, yes, fascinated, by the machinations of the ‘national enemies,’ without and within, that we had no time to think about these dreadful things that were growing, little by little, all around us. Unconsciously, I suppose, we were grateful. Who wants to think?

    "To live in this process is absolutely not to be able to notice it—please try to believe me—unless one has a much greater degree of political awareness, acuity, than most of us had ever had occasion to develop. Each step was so small, so inconsequential, so well explained or, on occasion, ‘regretted,’ that, unless one were detached from the whole process from the beginning, unless one understood what the whole thing was in principle, what all these ‘little measures’ that no ‘patriotic German’ could resent must some day lead to, one no more saw it developing from day to day than a farmer in his field sees the corn growing. One day it is over his head.

    "How is this to be avoided, among ordinary men, even highly educated ordinary men? Frankly, I do not know. I do not see, even now. Many, many times since it all happened I have pondered that pair of great maxims, Principiis obsta and Finem respice—‘Resist the beginnings’ and ‘Consider the end.’ But one must foresee the end in order to resist, or even see, the beginnings. One must foresee the end clearly and certainly and how is this to be done, by ordinary men or even by extraordinary men? Things might have. And everyone counts on that might.

    "Your ‘little men,’ your Nazi friends, were not against National Socialism in principle. Men like me, who were, are the greater offenders, not because we knew better (that would be too much to say) but because we sensed better. Pastor Niemöller spoke for the thousands and thousands of men like me when he spoke (too modestly of himself) and said that, when the Nazis attacked the Communists, he was a little uneasy, but, after all, he was not a Communist, and so he did nothing; and then they attacked the Socialists, and he was a little uneasier, but, still, he was not a Socialist, and he did nothing; and then the schools, the press, the Jews, and so on, and he was always uneasier, but still he did nothing. And then they attacked the Church, and he was a Churchman, and he did something—but then it was too late."

    "Yes," I said.

    "You see," my colleague went on, "one doesn’t see exactly where or how to move. Believe me, this is true. Each act, each occasion, is worse than the last, but only a little worse. You wait for the next and the next. You wait for one great shocking occasion, thinking that others, when such a shock comes, will join with you in resisting somehow. You don’t want to act, or even talk, alone; you don’t want to ‘go out of your way to make trouble.’ Why not?—Well, you are not in the habit of doing it. And it is not just fear, fear of standing alone, that restrains you; it is also genuine uncertainty.

    "Uncertainty is a very important factor, and, instead of decreasing as time goes on, it grows. Outside, in the streets, in the general community, ‘everyone’ is happy. One hears no protest, and certainly sees none. You know, in France or Italy there would be slogans against the government painted on walls and fences; in Germany, outside the great cities, perhaps, there is not even this. In the university community, in your own community, you speak privately to your colleagues, some of whom certainly feel as you do; but what do they say? They say, ‘It’s not so bad’ or ‘You’re seeing things’ or ‘You’re an alarmist.’

    "And you are an alarmist. You are saying that this must lead to this, and you can’t prove it. These are the beginnings, yes; but how do you know for sure when you don’t know the end, and how do you know, or even surmise, the end? On the one hand, your enemies, the law, the regime, the Party, intimidate you. On the other, your colleagues pooh-pooh you as pessimistic or even neurotic. You are left with your close friends, who are, naturally, people who have always thought as you have.

    "But your friends are fewer now. Some have drifted off somewhere or submerged themselves in their work. You no longer see as many as you did at meetings or gatherings. Informal groups become smaller; attendance drops off in little organizations, and the organizations themselves wither. Now, in small gatherings of your oldest friends, you feel that you are talking to yourselves, that you are isolated from the reality of things. This weakens your confidence still further and serves as a further deterrent to—to what? It is clearer all the time that, if you are going to do anything, you must make an occasion to do it, and then you are obviously a troublemaker. So you wait, and you wait.

    "But the one great shocking occasion, when tens or hundreds or thousands will join with you, never comes. That’s the difficulty. If the last and worst act of the whole regime had come immediately after the first and smallest, thousands, yes, millions would have been sufficiently shocked—if, let us say, the gassing of the Jews in ’43 had come immediately after the ‘German Firm’ stickers on the windows of non-Jewish shops in ’33. But of course this isn’t the way it happens. In between come all the hundreds of little steps, some of them imperceptible, each of them preparing you not to be shocked by the next. Step C is not so much worse than Step B, and, if you did not make a stand at Step B, why should you at Step C? And so on to Step D.

    "And one day, too late, your principles, if you were ever sensible of them, all rush in upon you. The burden of self-deception has grown too heavy, and some minor incident, in my case my little boy, hardly more than a baby, saying ‘Jewish swine,’ collapses it all at once, and you see that everything, everything, has changed and changed completely under your nose. The world you live in—your nation, your people—is not the world you were born in at all. The forms are all there, all untouched, all reassuring, the houses, the shops, the jobs, the mealtimes, the visits, the concerts, the cinema, the holidays. But the spirit, which you never noticed because you made the lifelong mistake of identifying it with the forms, is changed. Now you live in a world of hate and fear, and the people who hate and fear do not even know it themselves; when everyone is transformed, no one is transformed. Now you live in a system which rules without responsibility even to God. The system itself could not have intended this in the beginning, but in order to sustain itself it was compelled to go all the way.

    "You have gone almost all the way yourself. Life is a continuing process, a flow, not a succession of acts and events at all. It has flowed to a new level, carrying you with it, without any effort on your part. On this new level you live, you have been living more comfortably every day, with new morals, new principles. You have accepted things you would not have accepted five years ago, a year ago, things that your father, even in Germany, could not have imagined.

    "Suddenly it all comes down, all at once. You see what you are, what you have done, or, more accurately, what you haven’t done (for that was all that was required of most of us: that we do nothing). You remember those early meetings of your department in the university when, if one had stood, others would have stood, perhaps, but no one stood. A small matter, a matter of hiring this man or that, and you hired this one rather than that. You remember everything now, and your heart breaks. Too late. You are compromised beyond repair.

    "What then? You must then shoot yourself. A few did. Or ‘adjust’ your principles. Many tried, and some, I suppose, succeeded; not I, however. Or learn to live the rest of your life with your shame. This last is the nearest there is, under the circumstances, to heroism: shame. Many Germans became this poor kind of hero, many more, I think, than the world knows or cares to know."

    I said nothing. I thought of nothing to say.

    "I can tell you," my colleague went on, "of a man in Leipzig, a judge. He was not a Nazi, except nominally, but he certainly wasn’t an anti-Nazi. He was just—a judge. In ’42 or ’43, early ’43, I think it was, a Jew was tried before him in a case involving, but only incidentally, relations with an ‘Aryan’ woman. This was ‘race injury,’ something the Party was especially anxious to punish. In the case at bar, however, the judge had the power to convict the man of a ‘nonracial’ offense and send him to an ordinary prison for a very long term, thus saving him from Party ‘processing’ which would have meant concentration camp or, more probably, deportation and death. But the man was innocent of the ‘nonracial’ charge, in the judge’s opinion, and so, as an honorable judge, he acquitted him. Of course, the Party seized the Jew as soon as he left the courtroom."

    "And the judge?"

    "Yes, the judge. He could not get the case off his conscience—a case, mind you, in which he had acquitted an innocent man. He thought that he should have convicted him and saved him from the Party, but how could he have convicted an innocent man? The thing preyed on him more and more, and he had to talk about it, first to his family, then to his friends, and then to acquaintances. (That’s how I heard about it.) After the ’44 Putsch they arrested him. After that, I don’t know."

    I said nothing.

    "Once the war began," my colleague continued, "resistance, protest, criticism, complaint, all carried with them a multiplied likelihood of the greatest punishment. Mere lack of enthusiasm, or failure to show it in public, was ‘defeatism.’ You assumed that there were lists of those who would be ‘dealt with’ later, after the victory. Goebbels was very clever here, too. He continually promised a ‘victory orgy’ to ‘take care of’ those who thought that their ‘treasonable attitude’ had escaped notice. And he meant it; that was not just propaganda. And that was enough to put an end to all uncertainty.

    "Once the war began, the government could do anything ‘necessary’ to win it; so it was with the ‘final solution of the Jewish problem,’ which the Nazis always talked about but never dared undertake, not even the Nazis, until war and its ‘necessities’ gave them the knowledge that they could get away with it. The people abroad who thought that war against Hitler would help the Jews were wrong. And the people in Germany who, once the war had begun, still thought of complaining, protesting, resisting, were betting on Germany’s losing the war. It was a long bet. Not many made it."

    I mean it people – there will be a quiz!  

    Speaking of beyond despicable – I really hope Jeff Sessions is right and there is a Hell because he deserves to burn in it for all of eternity:

    I don't care who you vote for but people who let this happen can NEVER represent me or claim to represent me and I understand that this sort of thing MAY have happened under Obama but it was not the POLICY – especially long after the atrocities were being exposed.  CONTINUING to act this way after it is pointed out how heartless, cruel, evil and PERMANENTLY DAMAGING to children it is – that's where we cross the line into evil empire folks…

    Buffett/StJ – What worries me is those kind of "hold on through adversity" articles always seem to come out right before or during market collapses.  I think "THEY" try to keep the Retail Suckers in while the big boys head for the exits.

    Solar/StJ – I'm no longer worried about solar.  It's getting cheaper and more efficient to the point where Capitalism kicks in.  If it were illegal, there'd be a black market for it.  By the way, where are Elon's amazing solar panels that look just like roof tiles from 2 years ago?  How does he get away with this BS?

    /NG/Dave – I'm letting it fall at the moment, let it show us where the bottom is. 

    $2.60 to $3 is 0.40 so 0.8 pullback to $2.92 (weak) and $2.84 (strong) and weak failed so hopefully $2.84 holds and makes a good entry.


  14. I'm naked long UVXY – that's how bad I think this is going to go.


  15. Free/Phil  This is one time where history will not repeat. I know all about ignorance and apathy, but in the world we live in, it's in real time and in your face.

    We'll never be able to help those who are willfully ignorant or too damn proud.  F them….


  16. Any one looking at AAPL losing a few points???


  17. UVXY/BDC – That one's a real widow-maker.  Keep in mind the dip buyers still haven't been burned and they consider every down move an opportunity still.  

    Free/1020 – I would hope so, hard to imagine people can just ignore this but CNBC is talking about "Space Force", not immigration.  Trump is the master of distraction and the Conservative Media all pull together to steer the conversation where he wants it and to lay in those talking points until they sound true.

    By the way, no one is talking about the fact that there's a 100% international agreement NOT to militarize space.  What Trump is proposing would start another very cold war that will cost a fortune and benefit no one (but the contractors).  

    AAPL/Yodi  – Good, healthy correction for them so far.  

    Nasdaq is holding up well considering AAPL moving down 2%.


  18. CNBC has MSNBC for all of your viewing needs…. ;)


  19. …and MSNBC starting with Morning Joe at 6am and Rachel Maddow at 9pm EST. is ALL OVER Immigration.

    I need to switch over to CNBC for a little levity…. :)


  20. The GOP’s Immigration Meltdown





  21. Trump Threatens Tariffs on $200 Billion in China Goods, Escalating Fight


  22. ALB/Phil- I dont get why ALB chart is on a downward spiral, lithium prices been problem?


  23. Phil do you think we get the 2pm stick again today or could we actually have a day where there is not a BTFD??


  24. MSNBC/1020 – Too depressing for me.

    ALB/Dave – I think there's a general feeling that there will be no huge boom in lithium pricing and that's why a lot of people bought into ALB and lithium ETFs so it's being sold off as the ETFs lose fans but ALB does well without lithium taking off – that's why I played them, the lithium is less than 1/2 of their income (but growing fast).  

    The lithium demand story won't go away – it just won't explode the way people hoped.  I still like them as a long-term hold but our target in the LTP is just $100, with a little (25%) room for a move higher.

    Short Call 2020 17-JAN 130.00 CALL [ALB @ $91.46 $-1.41] -10 2/5/2018 (577) $-13,500 $13.50 $-9.15 n/a     $4.35 - $9,150 67.8% $-4,350
    Short Put 2020 17-JAN 100.00 PUT [ALB @ $91.46 $-1.41] -5 2/6/2018 (577) $-7,750 $15.50 $2.25     $17.75 - $-1,125 -14.5% $-8,875
    Long Call 2020 17-JAN 75.00 CALL [ALB @ $91.46 $-1.41] 20 3/5/2018 (577) $62,900 $31.45 $-6.70     $24.75 - $-13,400 -21.3% $49,500
    Short Call 2020 17-JAN 95.00 CALL [ALB @ $91.46 $-1.41] -10 3/6/2018 (577) $-21,300 $21.30 $-7.35     $13.95 $-0.95 $7,350 34.5% $-13,950

    So net $20,350 (on the roll) is net $85 break-even on the position (ignoring short puts, which we'd roll) – not terribly aggressive and we will even sell 5 (1/4) short calls if they pop back up.  

    Stick/Jabob – Well it happens every day so why not.  Worth a bet with a tight stop – one day it won't work but probably not today.  Just have to watch the news to make sure things are quiet into the close so the bots can have their way.

    Meanwhile, Blankfein is at the NY Economic Club spinning the crap out of Trump's Trade War, saying it's only the way Trump negotiates and he wouldn't actually destroy the US economy in a dick-measuring contest with Xi – because that would be completely insane.  I agree with Blankfien – other than his base assumption that Trump is not completely insane.  


  25. Netflix Bulls Push Targets Higher


  26. The 5 Dangers of Over Trading



  27. UVXY/caution taken

    we are considering tokenizing energy storage. Could be a wild ride!


  28. MSNBC needs trump more than trump does. They don't talk about anything else. Trump is the King of All Media. He's the absolute, unadulterated heavy weight champion of the global media singularity convergence. The first true global leader. 


  29. Falling Mortgage Applications Cloud U.S. Housing Outlook


  30. China Rout Has 1,023 Stocks Plunging 10% in One Day


  31. 1 x AMZN Oct 1000 put


  32. Storage/BDC – Damn, that would be fun!

    Trump/BDC – Trump is not the first World Leader, he's just a rolling, global disaster that is causing so much chaos that MSNBC, et al have become like the weather channel tracking a massive storm 24/7 – there's always potential damage ahead and aftermaths behind to analyze…

    AMZN/BDC – Nice.

    If I were China, I'd boycott all US goods in July.  They could do it – would make a nice wake up call. Then Xi could demand Trump crawl on his hands and knees through Beijing Square to kiss Xi's ring before he lifted sanctions in August. 


  33. Speaking of Chinese boycotts, BA and CAT both down 3.5% – that's a lot of Dow points!

    MU don't care. 

    SPWR don't care:


  34. Households have $23.5 trillion of equity holdings. That is 40.1% of total household financial assets, and thus, it is higher than the 1968 and 2007 peaks. Read our full Q1 2018 Quarterly Update

    Interesting as Musk claims saboteurs set a fire in his plant yet not calling the Fire Department would be criminal negligence and a violation of their insurance contract:

    We did not receive or respond to any calls for service at the Tesla factory this past weekend.

    Has Scooby Doo caught the Tesla factory saboteur yet?

    "I was sent to a camp at just five years old — but even then, they didn't separate children from families" – recalls his experience in 1941 and compares it with current White House policy.


  35. That 2pm trade is working out for Jabob! 


  36. Wow, that Trump tweet this morning:

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/racist-demagogue

    Democrats are the problem. They don’t care about crime and want illegal immigrants, no matter how bad they may be, to pour into and infest our Country, like MS-13. They can’t win on their terrible policies, so they view them as potential voters!

    Infest… This is from the Nazi vocabulary here! They used to compare Jews to rat infestation!


  37. I don't know how these people can stay in business in the long term:

    https://www.engadget.com/2018/06/19/gamestop-enters-selloff-talks/

    Despite diversifying its offerings to include everything from tablets to figurines, GameStop has still been heavily dependent on physical game and console sales — and pushing used game sales could only do so much in an era when digital rules. Why go to GameStop when you can buy your console on Amazon, download your games straight from the source and avoid the usual pre-order and warranty pitches?

    25 years ago I used to shop there for video games… Now, everything is a digital download!


  38. GME/StJ – I have been surprised over and over again that they keep surviving.  I really thought apps were going to kill them but they didn't though their stores are pretty sad on the whole – like Blockbuster in its later days – sure they had everything, but no one cared….


  39. GME / Phil – I think that they still do OK with used games and such, but even that business will disappear as you can buy all that on eBay or Amazon. Sometimes it takes a while for businesses to die… look at Radio Shack!


  40. As I said before, with SPWR, sell puts at $7 and sell calls at $8.50! Or $9 if you can time that!


  41. I’m short a few /RTY at 1700


  42. KKR/Phil – peaking back up to all time highs… overextended or is this market setup good for them?


  43. Stick faltering, /ES topped at 2,770 but now 2,762.  

    KKR/Scott – I would think they are doing well as the companies they invest in are doing well.  They are certainly not overpriced at $24 ($20Bn) as they made $1Bn last year but not too cheap either.

    Well, it's bee a very dull way to lose almost 1,000 points in two days but that's just 4% anyway on /YM.  From 25,000 the -2.5% line is 24,375 and we didn't even test that so really just a small pullback on terrible news is NOT a sign of market weakness. 

    We'll see how things go tomorrow but certainly nothing going on that makes us want to add more shorts yet.

    Sadly, not enough of a discount to want to add more longs either.


  44. LULU – damn. i was in at 40 once upon a time (out at 65). these markets.


  45. nasdaq stick was strong


  46. Never got my /RTY back. HMNY popping.


  47. HMNY ???


  48. Weather Channel/Phil   That was a great analogy….. :)



  49. Here’s What You Need to Know About Crypto Exchanges








  50. Xiaomi Set Terms for Up to $6.1 Billion Hong Kong IPO





  51. Saudi struggles for Gulf oil producers’ support ahead of OPEC meeting


  52. GE ~~Walgreens Boot Alliance (WBA) to replace General Electric (GE) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, effective before the open Tuesday, June 26.


  53. albo….that sucks!

    FU GE!!!!!!!!!!


  54. Maybe a silly question, but will this cause GE to pullback considerably?   And is selling CALLs at this level worth the risk?  TIA