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Thrilling Thursday – Asia Takes Trade War Seriously, Americans Oblivious

Image result for quiet placeAs long as you are quiet, the monsters can't get you.

While it's a fun plot for a movie, it dosn't play out very well as a trading premise and just because we choose to ignore problems, doesn't mean they will go away – or leave us alone.  The market was heading back up into the close and again in the Futures but then those dummies at Dailmer had to make a sound (a profit warning due to tariffs) that sent all the EU auto-makers lower

This isn't about Trump's tariffs, this is about the Chinese tariffs that are a retaliation to Trump's tariffs to which he has threatened to retaliate with more tariffs which will, of course, cause China to retaliate with even more tariffs and so on and so on – we're only in the first inning of this game!  Both Dailmer and BMW are down over 5% for the week now after dropping 4% this morning in EU trading and EU markets are down about 1% but the US Futures are flat because we still think we can sneak past all the monsters without getting hurt.

Yesterday, in our Live Trading Webinar, we discussed some of the many reasons we were not going to chase the indexes higher and, in fact, we took a short on the Nasdaq as it tested 7,330 and caught a nice dip back to 7,300 for a $600 per contract gain and this morning we'll look for a chance to short it again as it's up for no reason.

We're still not a believer in the "rally" until we see the NYSE get back over that 12,800 line and we're about 1% away from it now and it's very, very doubtful that we'll get there today, no matter how quiet the US investors are.  

 

In fact, on the NYSE, we are wathing for a failure at 12,600 (the 200-dma), which would signal the very strong possibility of a leg down for the indexes.  We still have our long hedge on the Nasdaq and our 10 QQQ 2020 $220 calls from our June 12th Morning Report at $2,000 are already $2,550 for a 27.5% gain even though QQQ is only at $177.25, up $2.25 or 1.3% so we are getting the 20x leverage we expected on a move higher – just in case we're wrong and the index doubles before it drops 10%.

Still, that 6,500 target is very tempting with /NQ at 7,300 as it's down 800 points and that would pay $16,000 per contract on a correction – that puts the risk of playing here with tight stops above into perspective, right?  While US Investors may not be worried about the impact of Trump's Trade Policy, Fed Chairman Powell sure is, saying:

  “Changes in trade policy could cause us to have to question the outlook,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said during a panel discussion at a European Central Bank conference in Sintra, Portugal. “For the first time, we’re hearing about decisions to postpone investment, postpone hiring.” 

Shhhhh, say it quietly so people can ignore it – even though the monsters are right next to your assets!  Meanwhile, Congress is not, so far, letting Trump get away with his ZTE deal and that will really piss off Chaiman Xi, who paid Trump $500M to lift the sanctions against that company.   While Trump is used to screwing people out of hundreds of Millions of Dollars and giving them nothing but empty promises in return – that is not the way Xi expects to be treated as the leader of 1/4 of the World's population.

Xi is also not happy to see the Shanghai Composite crashing to the lowested level in two years, failing the 3,000 mark, all the way down to 2,950, which is down 20% from the highs it hit after Trump and Xi's "successful" November meeting.  I guess you can say it's a chart of our rapidly deteriorating relationship with China but, shhhhhhhhhhh…..

Speaking of things to be quiet about – it's no accident that OPEC is having their meeting to raise production ahead of the July 4th weekend and ahead of Europe's August holidays because they can raise their output into rising summer demand before people realize we still have a glut.  Yesterday, we told you we were shorting oil as it rose into the inventory report and it went all the way up to  $66.25 before plunging back to $65 for a lovely $1,250 per contract gain for our Report Readersyou're welcome

The meeting is tomorrow but it looks like we'll hit our predicted 1Mb/day output increase on the nose and, as noted in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar, we're not keen on shorting oil into July 4th but stay tuned for a wonderful shorting opportunity around then.  Until then, we're actually HOPING (but not betting) that oil goes back to $70 – so we can make more on the way down but it certainly doesn't deserve a penny over $68.50 based on the current Fundamentals – so that's around where we'd begin scaling into some shorts.

Remember, I can only tell you what is likely to happen and how to make money trading it – that is the extent of my powers…

Image result for property tax rate usSpeaking of predicting the Future – I'm not at all happy with Zillow's Housing Affordabilty Report, which shows home mortgages have risen to take the biggest slice of the average paycheck since 2009 (17.1%), driven up 1.2% since Q4 on rising rates and rising prices.  The median US home is now 5.4 TIMES household income, compared to 2.78 times income that was typical from 1985 to 2000.  Not only that, but a huge flaw in Zillow's report is the failure to account for property taxes (including school taxes) - which have risen completely out of control over the same period as the Federal Government drops more and more of the cost burden on local Governments (in order to save Top 1% taxpayers from having to fund it).  

I couldn't find a good chart but Illinois is a good example with Household Income rising 80% since 1990 while Property Taxes went up 180%.  Anyone who owns a home in America knows this pain.  Not only do rising property taxes suck money out of your pocket but they DEVALUE your home because people don't buy a home, they buy a mortgage and higher taxes means the person looking at your home has to allocate less money to you and more to your local Government.

That's the big lie when they lower Federal Aid – the aid is still required – it just needs to be made up for on the local level, where it doesn't impact rich people or corporations as much.  Why is that, because no matter how rich you are -you can only have so many homes.  Bill Gates has $100Bn more money than you do but he's only got 3 or 4 homes and yes, they are big homes, but not even 1/4 of 1% of his wealth so taxes, no matter how high, are miniscule to the Top 1% while a $10,000 property tax bill to you may be a bit more inconvenient, right?

Taking taxes into account, homes have never been less affordable than they are now and peaks in housing costs are often preludes to recessions.

So please, be careful out there! 

 


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  1. Nasdaq out of sync it seems!


  2. ….and don't look in the closet….


  3. Good Morning.


  4. That Obama bull market is going to set records:

    http://ritholtz.com/2018/06/visualizing-longest-bull-markets-modern-era/


  5. Good morning, All!

    The weekly webinar replay is now available! 

    https://youtu.be/CDVlBJp_uJs


  6. ~~ NFLX – Netflix target raised to $500 at Pivotal Research Group.

    Sure.  Why not ?  

    Sorry, Jabob.


  7. Pandora (P) has been on quite a roll.

    ETSY at all time high.  Phil, remember this little guy ?   Looks like a short on fundamentals, but hasn't rolled over yet.


  8. NFLX / Albo – Their forward P/E is a cheap 90! Room to run for sure lol


  9. BTW, Goldman is not far with a TP of $490! I think that the $500 number is psychological but they all sound insane.


  10. Good morning!  

    Big Chart – Dow failing 50 dma is very big deal, as is NYSE failing the 200.  Other indexes off in Lala Land at the moment but I think a double failure will bring them all back to test their 50 dmas.

    NFLX/Albo – At least they make money ($500M) so $500/share would be about a $220Bn valuation – only 440x earnings.  Still puts them miles ahead of TSLA at $61Bn while losing $2Bn.  That's what happens with these bubbles – some headline stocks are so ridiculous that you look at a stock trading at 50x earnings and think it's a good deal.

    In the end, it's pretty simple, 50x earnings is a 2% return and, obviously, it's risky.  When you can get 3% from a guaranteed note vs 2% in a stock – all it takes is a tiny sign of weakness and money will FLY out of stocks and into bonds.

    ETSY/Albo – Yeah, I didn't think they'd catch on so well.





  11. OK, now I'm happy!  

    Been waiting for that one all week!   100-point drop so look for 10-point overshoot to 7,240 and then bounce with weak at 7,270 and strong 7,290 so I'm just taking it and running as we test 7,240 and we'll see about a new entry after we see how bouncy it is…



  12. Eureka! Giant Oil Find Set to Bring Guyana Startling Riches. Maybe – WSJ


  13. HMNY raising some cash:

    Helios and Matheson Analytics Inc. Enters Into Agreement to Issue $164 Million in Convertible Notes

    Stock is up because it's not directly dilutive, which is a surprise.  Still have to be patient and let things play out.


  14. Phil have you seen any actual analysis by someone who has some expertise of US tarriffs on other countries vs their tariffs on us, and what the true deficits are when both goods and services are counted?  I do not find anything but maybe I am just not searching for the right terms.   I have no faith in what ANY govt says the numbers are.


  15. Not good for AMZN:

    Online retail rattled by Supreme Court ruling

    • The Supreme Court rules that states have the constitutional power to require online sales taxes be collected in a highly-watched case involving a challenge by South Dakota.
    • The SCOTUS decision is creating a ripple in the tech and consumers services sectors. Keep an eye on Amazon (AMZN -1.2%), eBAY (EBAY -1.8%), PayPal (PYPL -0.1%) and Wayfair (W -2.7%) among others as the full implications are digested.
    • Related ETF: IBUY.

    Puerto Rico announces $1.5B in public-private partnerships to rebuild

    • Puerto Rico Governor and the Public-Private Partnerships Authority, announce projects to help rebuild the island's infrastructure and economy.
    • Six public-private projects are underway, representing more than $1.5B in investment:
    • Modernizing water utilities: The Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority project, representing capital investment of over $100M, will replace outdated water meters; offer better maintenance, and improve efficiency.
    • High-capacity energy storage: Project to develop a high capacity energy storage plant to provide greater stability to Puerto Rico's energy system , while providing resilience and responsiveness to fluctuations or power system outages.
    • Ferry service to outer islands: Service between Culebra, Vieques and Cataño will create a new route to leave from Ceiba.
    • Improve cruise ship docks: Proposal seeks to modernize and optimize the cruise docks in order to receive larger and more modern cruises.
    • Updating student facilities: The project will develop  dormitories, parking and a student center for the Mayagüez Campus of the University of Puerto Rico.
    • Public safety training: The project is expected to be formally announced by the end of this month.It will consist of a necessity and convenience study, followed up by training for public safety officers.
    • Source: Press Release
    • Previously: MasTec awarded PREPA power contract (June 4)

    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rises

    • The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to 56.5 from 55.8 a week ago.
    • State of the Economy index, Personal Finance index and Buying Climate index all rose during the week.

    Leading Indicators

    • May Leading Indicators+0.2% to 109.5 +0.3% consensus, 0.4% prior (revised).
    • Coincident Economic Index +0.2% to 103.7.
    • Lagging Economic Index +0.5% to 105.2.

    Philly Fed business reading drops sharply

    Oppenheimer watches Tesla debate from the sidelines

    • Oppenheimer played referee on Tesla (TSLA +0.1%) this week at a bull/bear lunch. The firm says the two sides of the Tesla argument boil down to differences on gross margin rates and Model 3 demand. Consensus was reached at the lunch that Tesla needs to sell 500K Model 3s a year to support its share price and raise funds.
    • "Unsurprisingly, bulls and bears agreed the company needs to raise capital and that a raise would drive shares higher by eliminating a near-term overhang. Attendees also agreed that given its history, TSLA would likely raise near-minimal capital necessary for 12-18 months," writes analyst Colin Rusch.
    • Oppenheimer's Tesla thesis (Perform rating, no price target): "While we believe TSLA has the potential to become a transformative technology company and deliver outsized returns for investors, the company's pace of growth, recent questionable decisions around capital allocation, and lack of disclosure keep us on the sidelines."

    Barnes & Noble down 8.5% post Q4 results

    • Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS) reports comparable store sales declined 4.1% in Q4.
    • Retail ales dropped 3.9% to $765.45M.
    • NOOK sales fell 21.6% to $25.09M.
    • Gross margin rate down 40 bps to 29.1%.
    • SG&A expense rate +30 bps to 29.3%.
    • Merchandise inventories up 1.2% $958.2M.
    • The company expects FY2019 EBITDA to be in the range of $175M to $200M.
    • BKS -8.53% premarket.
    • Previously: Barnes & Noble misses by $0.09, beats on revenue (June 21)

    Micron +4.8% after earnings, upside Q4 guidance

    • Micron (NASDAQ:MU) provides Q4 guidance on the earnings call. Revenue is expected from $8B to $8.4B (consensus: $8.08B) and EPS from $3.23 to $3.37 (consensus: $3.23).
    • Gross margins expected between 59% to 62% and operating expenses from $725M to $775M. 
    • Earnings call transcript
    • Micron shares are up 4.8% premarket to $61.75.  
    • Previously: Micron dips despite Q3 beats; NAND and DRAM shipments flat Q/Q (June 20)

    Bank of England votes to maintain bank rate at 0.5%

    • As expected, the Bank of England votes by majority of 6-3 to maintain interest rate at 0.5%..
    • GBP/USD +0.21% to 1.3203.
    • Monetary Policy Committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of corporate bond purchases and UK government bond purchases.
    • UK GDP expected to grow by about 1.75% per year over forecast, according to May Inflation report, BOE says.
    • Indicators suggest US growth bounced back strongly in Q2 from a soft Q1. Euro-area growth has been weaker than expected.
    • " More broadly, the prospects for global GDP growth remain strong, and while financial conditions have tightened somewhat, they continue to be accommodative," the BOE statement said.
    • Previously: Rate clues seen at ECB forum (June 19)

    Ow, my wrist!  Deutsche Bank fined $205M for rate manipulation by New York state

    • Deutsche Bank agrees to pay $205M fine as part of a consent order with New York State Department of Financial Services for unlawful conduct in its foreign exchange trading business that involved attempting to manipulate foreign exchange currency prices or benchmark rates.
    • Violations include  efforts to improperly coordinate trading activity through online chat rooms, improperly sharing confidential customer information, misleading customers to benefit the bank, and trading aggressively to skew prices, the DFS said.
    • Under the consent order, Deutsche Bank will take remedial actions and submit plans to DFS to improve senior management oversight of the its compliance with New York State laws and regulations.
    • Previously: JPMorgan to pay $65M penalty for attempted ISDAFIX swap rate manipulation (June 18)
    • Previously: Citigroup agrees to pay $100M to 42 states to settle LIBOR manipulation probe (June 15)

    Exxon still not complying with climate subpoenas, New York AG says

    • Exxon Mobil (XOM -0.3%) continues to refuse to turn over documents crucial to New York’s investigation into whether the company’s public statements about climate change misled investors, according to a court filing by the state's attorney general's office.
    • XOM has not complied with subpoenas for cash flow projections reflecting how it used proxy costs to calculate the financial impact on its assets from future regulations tied to climate change, says the AG, which wants to know how the information has been used in making investment decisions and evaluations for assets and projects.
    • The state suspects XOM may use two sets of proxy costs, one for public use and one for internal applications.

    Notice how we are totally numb to Corporate Crime?  These are horrible, evil people in positions of power who screw over millions of people yet they keep their jobs and pay tiny little fines and go right on to commit the next crime.


  16. Tariffs/Tangled – Well people have argued the effects of tariffs for centuries and, no, I haven't seen anyone settle it here or quantify the numbers because they are all based on speculation which is then subject to further interpretation.  Better off giving darts to a monkey and using those numbers…  

    There was a good IMF study last year and those guys will be thrilled to put their premise to the test but all this stuff is academic and happens in a vacuum because the reality is we have an overpriced market based on everything going smoothly and tariffs unsmoothe things which then leads to a rational repricing of risk and THAT is the real danger to the markets and, ultimately, the economy if people (and Corporate People) begin to lose faith and get defensive.  


  17. Retailers are leading the bounce as on-line placed on a more level playing field now.


  18. has anyone noticed the current market max daytrading potential is short the first hour and go long the remainder of the day? It seems this is every day now.


  19. GNC – New recovery high.


  20. bio--absolutely!

    especially after 2pm..with mr stick


  21. Got another crack at shorting /NQ at 7,290 (strong bounce) but very tight stops above.

    Every day/BDC – Yep, certainly long after the EU close is the way to go so far.  

    GNC/Albo – Suddenly people are interested.


  22. Eurozone consumer confidence unexpectedly falls in June

    • Eurozone consumer confidence dropped to -0.5 in June from +0.2 in May, compared to the expectations of a decline to 0.0, adding to signs in the second quarter of a cooling of the bloc's economy.
    • While the Commission did not give details on the reason for the deterioration, protectionist talk by the United States administration and fear of a trade war with China and the European Union have spooked markets worldwide.
    • The downward pressure on economic growth in the quarter is also a headache for policy makers at the European Central Bank set to end a stimulus program by the year-end.

    CNBC: GE may not break up completely but could announce spinoff

    • General Electric (GE -1.7%) slides to a fresh 52-week low as CNBC's David Faber reports the company is expected to make a significant announcement about its future by the end of Q2.
    • The news may not amount to the full break-up that some had anticipated but it would be a "significant announcement around reorganization of the company, including potentially something being spun," according to Faber.

  23. GNC – Added to my 2.50 short put position.  Bought some stock at 4.32 and covered with Jan 5 calls for .90.   36% return if called.


  24. Phil,

    Thoughts about sbux at these levels?

    Thanks


  25. VIX is steadily climbing since yesterday, but no momo-fang are still hanging out with full sails.


  26. Nice, right back to 7,240 on /NQ!  Gotta love those dip-buyers.  

    U.S. natural gas production to surge 60% in 20 years, report says

    • U.S. natural gas production already has jumped 60% in just over a decade and is forecast to surge by another 60% to 118B cf/day during the next 20 years, according to a new report from IHS Markit.
    • Natural gas is responsible for about a third of all U.S. electricity now and should grow to ~50% by 2040, and U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas will grow to at least 10B cf/day in five years, the report says.
    • Meanwhile, expectations of excess supply have eroded as demand for LNG also has been soaring; China increased LNG imports by 46% last year, and LNG imports from the U.S. were conspicuously left out of its retaliatory tariffs on the U.S.
    • Cheniere Energy's (NYSEMKT:LNG) Sabine Pass Train 6, Exxon's (NYSE:XOM) venture with Qatar Petroleum in the Golden Pass LNG project and LNG Ltd.'s Magnolia LNG have been approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission; Tellurian's (NASDAQ:TELL) Driftwood LNG and Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu Pass projects are pending.

    Cheniere Energy's Midship pipeline gets positive FERC environmental report

    • Cheniere Energy (LNG +1%) is higher after staff at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issues a positive environmental report for its proposed $1B Midship natural gas pipeline in Oklahoma.
    • The Midship project is designed to deliver 1.44B cf/day of gas from the STACK and SCOOP plays in Oklahoma's Anadarko Basin to existing pipelines near Bennington, Okla., for transport to Gulf Coast and southeast markets; Cheniere is targeting completion of the project in early 2019.
    • The FERC staff says approval of the project would result in “some adverse environmental impacts [but] these impacts would be reduced to less than significant levels” with the implementation of steps recommended by the company.

    AT&T debuts WatchTV, two new unlimited plans

    • AT&T (T -0.6%) has officially rolled out its "WatchTV" skinny bundle as part of a launch of two new "unlimited" wireless plans.
    • As expected, the streaming video service is available at no additional cost with the plans, set to debut next week. It will be $15/month as a stand-alone service, with premium add-ons costing extra.
    • Full details will come at launch, but "AT&T Unlimited &More" and "AT&T Unlimited &More Premium" will each come with a $15 monthly credit toward DirecTV Now. The premium plan will also allow for a no-cost premium video service add-on, for that $15 credit to be applied to DirecTV or U-verse TV, and 15 GB of high-speed tethering along with high-definition video.
    • As planned, WatchTV will have more than 30 live channels and more than 15,000 shows/movies on demand — but no ESPN, pro league channels or regional sports nets, and no local broadcast.

    Soap opera twists around Tesla and ex-employee

    • Tesla (TSLA -3%) says an ex-employee of the company being sued for data theft has threatened to "shoot" up the Gigafactory in Sparks, Nevada.
    • The Storey County Sheriff's Office is investigating the potential threat. Tesla says it has added extra security at the battery plant.
    • The ex-employee in question is Martin Tripp, a former Gigafactory technician who claims the data theft story is much different.
    • "I am being singled out for being a whistleblower. I didn't hack into system. The data I was collecting was so severe, I had to go to the media," claims Tripp.

    But the employee, Martin Tripp, told The Washington Post that he did not tamper with internal systems and is instead a whistleblower who spoke out after seeing "some really scary things" inside the company, including dangerously punctured batteries installed in cars.

    Tesla attorneys wrote in their lawsuit that Tripp, a former technician at the company's Gigafactory battery plant in Nevada, wrote software to aid in an elaborate theft of confidential photos and video of Tesla's manufacturing systems. The firm's attorneys said Tripp worked at Tesla from October to last week, when company investigators confronted him with evidence.

    But Tripp, 40, said he did so because he was alarmed by what he learned while an employee, including what he claimed were hundreds of Model 3s that had punctured batteries. Tesla representatives have said they would not ship cars that have safety concerns.

    Tripp said he did not hack into Tesla computers, saying, "I don't have the patience for coding." He also said he was not, as Tesla lawyers claimed, disgruntled about not getting a promotion. "That's their generic excuse," he said. "I could literally care less."

    Tesla on Wednesday night refuted Tripp's claims to being a whistleblower and said he has made false and exaggerated claims to try and hurt the company. Tesla said it never used punctured batteries in any Model 3 vehicles and that he was wrong about Musk's Model 3 production numbers and raw-material waste.

    Asked if Tripp was the employee Musk had suggested was behind the sabotage, Musk tweetedWednesday, "There is more, but the actions of a few bad apples will not stop Tesla from reaching its goals. With 40,000 people, the worst 1 in 1000 will have issues. That’s still ~40 people."

    Emails provided to The Post appear to reveal a testy exchange between the two men Wednesday morning, with Musk saying, "You’re a horrible human being," and Tripp responding, "Putting cars on the road with safety issues is being a horrible human being!"

     

    Tripp said he left his previous job with a medical-device company and moved his family to Nevada to work for Tesla, believing it was "a golden opportunity. I looked up to Elon, I looked up to Tesla. I was always drooling about the Teslas and wanting to buy one. And I was living the mission: to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy."

    But he said he grew disillusioned after seeing the company's waste, unsustainable practices and "seeing how Elon was lying to investors about how many cars they were making." He added, "I wanted to leave the world better for my son. And I felt I was doing everything but that."

    He said he did not share the information to hurt Tesla but to shine a light on potential dangers. He said he now believes Musk is a "narcissist" who "only cares about himself."

    Nothing surprising to that story, really.

    SBUX/Harip – I think $50 is about the right price for them, they are a mature fast-food retailer in a saturated sector earning about $2.40/share so 20x is as generous as I would be with someone like that.  DIN (Applebee's, IHOB) is a way better deal at $77.50 as they just had a great Q and are on track to drop $5+ to the bottom line (p/e 15).  The IHOB thing is silly but smart – it's not like people will forget they have pancakes but those places are dead after lunch so Burgers may be just the trick for them and, on the whole, they didn't have to spend much to get it all over the news – good marketing!

    VIX/That – Dollar down 0.75% since the open is supporting things this morning while the big boys head for the exits.

    Nice bounce on gold and silver

    Oil up $1.50 from opening lows

    Tomorrow is going to be interesting!


  27. This 2nd bounce was weaker than the first – will Mr. Stick fail us today?


  28. FTR/Phil – CFO resigning.. hmm. Seems like a clumsy way to announce.


  29. Scott, re FTR, stock down to $6.76, seems like quite an overreaction  -- I wonder if something else is also going on, or is it just risk aversion in a market that is overvalued and possibly on the way to a full-blown trade war?  Phil, or anyone, any thoughts?


  30. FTR/Scott, John – Well, that's often how those things go.  People get cancer or something and have to quit and the company spins it as well as they can.  End of Aug is likely to be an easy transition but bad timing for the company, just as it was regaining some footing.  As to the over-reaction (15% in two days), when a company has a lot of debt and the CFO resigns – people get understandably nervous!  

    McBride was a heavy hitter with tons of experience in the industry – he will be hard to replace with an equal.  Rumors will be flying too…

    Indexes still looking ugly one hour after 2pm!


  31. TSLA failing $350!   Damned saboteurs….

    Image result for tesla musk cartoon profit

    Right on track!


  32. By the way, here's Elon before he got rich – who says money can't buy everything?

    Image result for elon musk before after

    Just to remind you how much this guy cares about image…


  33. GE – liking buy/writes here: buy shares, sell Jan 2019 13 puts and calls at ~2.34 for net $10.40 entry.


  34. Haha that Elon before/after pic reminds me of the Bezos before after

    http://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-before-and-after


  35. HBI nice move today! but for what, a UBS neutral rating and $22 target?


  36. Yeah, where do you get these makeover guys?  Elon has clearly had work done, Jeff just looks like he got in shape and maybe a nose job.

    HBI/Scott – Well $22 was higher.  Maybe people expected a downgrade?  A lot of retailers perked up on that Internet tax news – much more even playing field now.  Even though people were supposed to pay their tax on internet purchases - turns out "some" of them didn't.

    Now if only people would notice LB in the bargain basement!


  37. And Bezos still has that goofy laugh.  CNBC guys made so much fun of him, that he refused to go on their show.  And Bezos is laughing all the way to the bank.


  38. Ouch, see how ugly it gets when you don't have a stick?

    I'm off to a meeting, will check in later.


  39. IQ finally taking a break as the Chinese markets swoon.

    Hopefully a good opportunity shows up for new positions. 


  40. I’ll just be happy our short calls stop killing us!

    China is not down much tonight so far.


  41. Direct primary care. Interesting. OK, now I see how a HealthCoin could work.






  42. Tomorrow's news… drone strike in Netherlands, Hague destroyed. Trump says "oops." Would anyone be surprised? 


  43. Well it ended badly in a bunker for the last guy who invaded the Netherlands :-)


  44. Good morning!

    Indexes up a bit but not too exciting – hard to call on a Friday though so maybe a watch and wait day, which suits me as Maddie's graduating this afternoon!

    China perked up into the close and ended the day up a little bit and Europe is up 0.5-1% so no reason we shouldn't be able to hold a bit of a gain today – I'll figure out the bounce lines to watch.

    Nothing too exciting in the news either.

    Pentagon asked to prep housing for up to 20,000 unaccompanied migrant children on military bases

    Dow Ties Worst Losing Streak In 40 Years.

    Fed Finds All 35 Banks Will Be Fine If Stocks Crash by 65%, VIX Hits 60.

    Bank of England to get sweeping new powers as Chancellor says Goldman Sachs' UK Puppet will not be a rule-taker from Brussels.

    The First Burger Restaurant Run By A Robot Is Opening In San Francisco.


  45. I am sure that was Melania giving Mueller a message on where to find the stash of documents.


  46. Phil / Maddie´s graduation

     

    Congratulations Phil…your worries are just beginning…..LOL


  47. Yes CONGRATS! Good times, I'm sure she's thrilled, and you too for different reasons… welcome to adulthood, sort of. Glad she's going to college, eases them into it. Nothing beats that proud feeling, mu oldest just finished her first year of vet school, that's my girl :)