Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

Monday Market Movement – Trump has his First Debriefing

President Trump is meeting his handler this morning.

It's a private meeting, of course, and whatever goes on from there we will only know from what Trump and Putin say about it but, fortunately, both men are well-known for giving the public faithful accounts of their actions behind closed doors, right?  According to protocols, however, Putin at least should have a report and maybe one day we'll get to see it.

Futile though it's been, we're taking another whack at shorting the Futures this morning as noted in my 7:21 note to our Members:

On the whole, I still like the short side and we'll be looking to cash a lot of positions in our portfolio reviews.  /NQ below 7,400 (tight stops above for all) is good as is, /YM 25,000, /ES 2,800 and /RTY 1,690 – 3 below and short the laggard is the safest way to play but I'm hoping NFLX disappoints and hurts the Nasdaq and, of course, it's time for negative AAPL rumors!  

Powell testifies before Congress for the first time tomorrow – that's a biggie.  June Retail Sales this morning, Industrial Production tomorrow, Housing Wednesday and the Beige Book and NY and Philly Feds this week too!  So plenty of data to chew over.

8:30 am Retail sales June   0.5% 0.8%
8:30 am Retail sales ex-autos June   0.3% 0.9%
8:30 am Empire state index July   -- 25.0
10 am Business inventories May   -- 0.3%
9:15 am Industrial production June   0.6% -0.1%
9:15 am Capacity utilization June   78.3% 77.9%
10 am Jerome Powell testimony        
10 am Home builders' index July   -- 68
8:30 am Housing starts June   1.312 mln 1.350mln
8:30 am Building permits June   -- 1.301mln
10 am Jerome Powell testimony        
2 pm Beige book        
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 7/14   220,000 214,000
8:30 am Philly Fed July   22.0 19.9
10 am Leading economic indicators June   -- 0.2%
  None scheduled

Also we are finally into earnings season and we're off to an exciting start with very high expectations which may lead to some nice shorting opportunites on high-flyers like Netflix (NFLX), who report this evening.  

As you can see from the chart above, Netflix is anticipated to move 9.3% on earnings but usually doesn't move that much and they are just below the $400 line so we're talking about $37!   The problem is traders don't know if it's $37 up or $37 down but you can sell the Aug $420 calls for $14 and that's a fun way to short the stock.  I'd sell 2 of those for $2,800 and buy 3 Aug $450 ($60)/400 ($25) bear put spreads for $10,500 so net $7,700 on the $15,000 spread and your break-even is about $422.50 – anything below that is profit!

Sketchers (SKX), on the other hand, is undervalued at $31.29 and their options are, not surprisingly, pricing in a 15% move since the stock fell from $42 to $28 (down 33%) after last earnings were disappointing.  Most of the rising costs in their Q1 report were from INVESTMENTS but idiot traders don't like companies to invest in the future and Sketchers is ambitiously moving to make themselves a global brand – that's expensive!  Expensive but worth it as China grew 30% with 4.4M pairs sold and overall international growth was 62.1%.

SKX won't turn around this Q, they hired a lot of people and are building distribution centers in China and Europe.  Since expectations are way down, I doubt they will disappoint again so we may as well take advantage of the high volatility expectations to sell some premium for our Long-Term Portfolio.  Since we REALLY don't mind owning them long-term, we can aggressively sell puts:

  • Sell 10 SKX 2020 $30 puts for $5.25 ($5,250) 
  • Buy 20 SKX Jan (2019) $28 calls for $6 ($12,000) 
  • Sell 20 SKX Jan (2019) $34 calls for $3 ($6,000) 

That's net $750 on the $12,000 spread that's $6,000 in the money to start and our break-even is $29 so SKX has to drop $2.29 before we have any concern at all.  We're doing the 2019 bull call spread to take advantage if theres a quick move higher as those will hit $5 of our $6 goal if, for some reason, SKX pops back to $40 (not counting on it).  Still, $35 is a very realistic goal for the year's end.  The upside potential on the play is $11,250, which is a 1,500% return on cash if SKX goes 10% higher and our worst case is being forced to own 1,000 shares of SKX at net $30.75 – just a bit below where it is now.

That's how we use options both to leverage our gains and hedge against losses at the same time!  

We'll look for more fun opportunities as the week continues.


Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!

Comments (reverse order)

    You must be logged in to make a comment.
    You can sign up for a membership or log in

    Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

    Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

  1. VRX – Valeant Pharma completes name change to Bausch Health Companies, will begin trading under the ticker BHC effective today.

  2. Trump / Phil – Good article about what we know and maybe a warning to Trump:

    The indictment also sends a message to President Trump and members of his entourage who are potential targets of Mueller’s probe: Here’s a hint of what we know; how much are you willing to wager that we don’t know a lot more about Russian contacts and collusion?

    And here’s a spooky final question: How much has the intelligence community told Trump about its operations against Russia? If you were one of the American intelligence officers who helped gather the information that’s included in Friday’s indictment, what would you think about the fact that Trump has asked for a private meeting first with Putin?

  3. And the view from a Russian journalist opposed to Putin:

    In their habits, they're radically different. Trump is a posturing performer, full of idiotic narcissism. He appears to be a disorganized fool, to be honest. Putin, on the other hand, is calculating, organized, and he plans everything. He also hides much of his personal life in a way that Trump does not.

    Then there's also the fact that Putin is so much more experienced than Trump. He has more than 15 years of global political experience. He knows how to do things, how to work the system. He makes plenty of mistakes, but he knows how to think and act. Trump is a total neophyte. He has no experience and doesn't understand how global politics operates. He displays his ignorance every single day.

  4. Why?

    Foreign investors spent $259.6 billion to acquire, launch, and expand businesses in the United States in 2017, according to numbers released Wednesday by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. That's down from an historic high of $439.5 billion in 2015.[...]


    "Last year, there was a lot of uncertainty," McLernon says. "Multinational companies in general are concerned about how governments will be treating foreign companies operating in their countries. Cross-border acquisition is not surprisingly taking a hit from economic nationalism, not just in the U.S. but also worldwide"

  5. Good Morning.

  6. Good morning!

    Still flatlining into the open.  Trump and Putin now in hour 2 of their 1 on 1 debriefing.

    Trump Hopes to Repair Strained U.S.-Russia Ties At Summit With Putin

    Speaking at the start of a one-on-one meeting with Vladimir Putin, which is expected to last about 90 minutes, President Trump said the two leaders would discuss issues related to trade, the military, nuclear weapons and China, including their “mutual friend” President Xi Jinping. 576

    China Cozies Up to EU as Trade Spat With U.S. Escalates

    Those who tasted blood by selling WTI short before Wednesday’s plunge seem determined to go for the kill at below $70. That could happen this week. “The summer demand for oil has peaked and without additional supply issues, there’s no reason for WTI to be trading above $65,” noted Phil Davis, founder of PSW Investments in New York.

    Davis says he “made a ton” selling US crude at $70 a barrel when it was trading above $74 before the 4th of July holiday. His bet: the market had overestimated gasoline consumption for the peak summer driving period.

    Arabica Anomaly

    Likewise, prices of arabica, the coffee bean of choice for top retailers including Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX), has been languishing, down 12% on the year, because of “sheer hype” of a seasonal anomaly in Brazilian production that led to fears of a glut, said Davis. To underscore his point, Brazil’s coffee exporting group Cecafé said on Friday that June’s end-season arabica exports slumped instead by 10 percent to 26.16 million bags.

    Arabica Weekly

    “A shortage of arabica will be looming soon and coffee prices will go much, much higher,” said Davis, who has started building long positions in futures of the bean trading for July 2019 at $1.2180 a lb, to exploit the differential to the spot price of under $1.10 a lb.

    VRX/Albo – Wow, needlessly confusing.

    Big Chart – Needlessly bullish. 

    Retail Sales were in-line, Empire State slipping but not so terrible — yet:

    • July Empire State Survey: 22.6 vs. 21 consensus, 25 prior.
    • New Orders 18.2 vs. 21.3.
    • Shipments 0.0 vs. 4.4.
    • Number of Employees 17.2 vs. 19.
    • June Retail Sales+0.5% M/M vs. +0.5% consensus, +1.3% prior (revised).
    • Core Retail Sales +0.4% M/M vs. +0.4% consensus, +0.9% prior (revised).
    • Ex-autos: +0.3% M/M vs. +0.4% expected, +1.3% prior (revised).
    • Control group flat M/M vs. +0.4% consensus, +0.8% prior (revised).

    • Retail sales continue to perk along, led by breakouts in a few key categories.
    • Food services and drinking places showed a 1.5% M/M and 8.0% Y/Y sales increase in a very solid showing for the restaurant sector (MCDDNKNYUMWENDINEATCMG).
    • Sales at health and personal care stores rose 2.2% M/M and 6.7% Y/Y. Keep an eye on Sally Beauty (NYSE:SBH), Ulta Salon (NASDAQ:ULTA) and e.l.f. Beauty (NYSE:ELF).
    • Building material and garden equipment sales increased 0.8% M/M and 6.2% Y/Y in what should be a positive sign for Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and Lowe's (NYSE:LOW).
    • On the disappointing side, sporting goods sales fell 3.2% M/M and 4.7% Y/Y as a smaller industry-wide store base continues to impact the tally. However, shares of Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS) are up about 20% YTD as the retail chain picks up scraps from Sports Authority and Sports Chalet. Hibbett Sports (NASDAQ:HIBB) is 15% higher YTD.
    • Cuba is planning a series of potentially far-reaching changes, with a new constitution set to recognize the free market and private property, while dividing political powers between a president and a prime minister.
    • The fundamental means of production will remain under central control, but foreign investment will be recognized as an important spur to development.
    • The Communist Party will also remain "the superior leading force of society and of the state."
    • CEFs: CUBA
    • Bank of America (NYSE:BAC): Q2 EPS of $0.63 beats by $0.06.
    • Revenue of $22.61B (-1.0% Y/Y) beats by $340M.
    • Press Release
    • Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) gains 0.74% in premarket trading after reporting Q2 EPS 63 cents vs 44 cents Y/Y.
    • Q2 net charge-offs $996M vs $908M Y/Y, driven mostly by higher losses in the consumer credit card portfolio due to seasoning, loan growth and storm-related losses.
    • Starts additional $500m investment in technology to be spend over next several quarters, citing benefits of tax reform.
    • Q2 consumer banking: revenue $9.21B vs. $8.51B Y/Y; Merrill Edge brokerage assets up 20%; provision for credit losses $944M vs. $834M; net income $2.88B vs. $2.03B Y/Y.
    • U.S. consumer credit card: average credit card outstanding balances $93.5B vs $94.4B in Q1; total credit/debit spend $147.5B vs $137.4B Q/Q; risk-adjusted margin 8.1% vs. 8.3% Q/Q.
    • Global wealth and investment management: revenue (FTE) $4.71B vs $4.70B Y/Y; AUM flows $10.8B fs $27.5B Y/Y; net income $968M vs $804M Y/Y.
    • Global banking: total revenue (FTE) $4.92B vs $5.04B Y/Y; average deposits $323.2B vs $300.5B Y/Y; net income $2.06B vs $1.79B.
    • Global markets: revenue (FTE) $4.22B vs $3.95B Y/Y; average total assets $678.5B vs $678.4B in Q1 and $645.2B a year ago; average trading-related assets $473.1B vs $463.2B in Q1 and $452.6B a year ago; net income $1.12B vs $830M Y/Y; net income excluding DVA $1.25B vs $929M Y/Y.
    • BlackRock (NYSE:BLK): Q2 EPS of $6.66 beats by $0.11.
    • Revenue of $3.61B (+11.4% Y/Y) beats by $20M.
    • Press Release
    • Q2 adjusted EPS $6.66 vs $5.22 Y/Y.
    • Q2 total net inflows $20B vs. $103.6B Y/Y.
    • BLK -0.02% in premarket trading.
    • By region, long-term net inflows of $14.5B made up  $21.0B from Americas, $900M from APAC, and outflows of $7.4B from Europe.
    • By segment, long-term net inflows made up of $5.5B from retail, $17.8B from iShares, outflows of $8.8B from institutional.
    • Cash management net inflows of $5.7B.
    • AUM $6.3T as of Q2 end, up 11% from $5.69T Y/Y.
    • Q2 effective tax rate 24.0% vs 30.5% Y/Y.
    • “Our diverse global platform generated $20B of total net inflows in the quarter and $276B over the last twelve months. Secular trends supportive of BlackRock’s future growth continue, especially in technology, including Aladdin and digital wealth, alternatives and iShares," says Chairman and CEO Larry Fink.
    • Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB+7.4% premarket after saying it expects to report Q2 pretax profit of about €700M and net income of approximately €400M, which is "considerably above the average consensus estimate."
    • The latest figures appear to be good news for new CEO Christian Sewing, and company management "believes that these results demonstrate the resilience of the franchise." Deutsche will report full earnings on July 25.
    • Saudi Arabia is said to have offered extra crude to some customers, extending additional cargoes of its Arab Extra Light crude to at least two buyers in Asia, Bloomberg reports.
    • The Trump administration is also actively considering tapping into the nation's 660M-barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve as political pressure grows to rein in rising gas prices before November elections.
    • Crude futures -1.7% to $69.82/bbl.
    • A Norwegian union for workers on offshore oil and gas drilling rigs has stepped up a six-day walkout that has hit crude output after employers did not respond to demands for higher wages and pension benefits.
    • The union is adding another 900 employees to the currently striking 700 workers, but the expanded action is not expected to have any immediate extra impact on production beyond the closure last week of Shell's (RDS.ARDS.B) Knarr field.
    • Crude futures -0.8% to $70.48/bbl.

    • Wheaton Precious Metals (NYSE:WPMagrees to acquire an amount of gold and palladium equal to a fixed percentage of production from Sibanye-Stillwater (NYSE:SBGL) Stillwater and East Boulder mines.
    • WPM says it will pay $500M up front and make ongoing payments equal to 18% of the spot gold price and spot palladium price until the reduction of the advanced payment to zero, and 22% of the spot gold price and spot palladium price thereafter.
    • "Stillwater is another accretive addition to Wheaton's portfolio of assets that is expected to contribute both production and cash flow for decades to come," says WPM CEO Randy Smallwood.
    • The most important aviation trade show of the year will kick off tomorrow, attracting about 100,000 trade visitors from 100 countries.
    • Alternating every year with the Paris Air Show in France, the 2018 Farnborough International Airshow runs until July 22.
    • In 2016, the last time Farnborough played host, more than $124B in sales and commitments were placed at the event.
    • The battle has begun between Boeing (NYSE:BA) and Airbus (OTCPK:EADSY) at the Farnborough Air Show.
    • The U.S. planemaker has kickstarted the exhibition with a $4.7B deal for freight planes with delivery company DHL and the firm purchase of 30 737 MAX 8s with leasing firm Jackson Square Aviation.
    • Airbus is already plotting its revenge. It's working on a blockbuster agreement to sell $23B worth of aircraft to AirAsia, as well as confirming a $6B A350 jetliner deal with Taiwan's StarLux Airlines.
    • #FarnboroughAirShow18
    • Previously: Lockheed Martin reaches 'handshake deal' deal for 141 F-35 jets (Jul. 15 2018)
    • Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) is helping take Britain into the commercial space age after claiming government grants totaling £23.5M to launch small satellites from a remote area of the Scottish Highlands.
    • The new spaceport around Tongue in Sutherland is expected to be used mainly for earth observation and other data-gathering tasks, with the goal of having launches from the early 2020s.
    • End of an era… Sears's (NASDAQ:SHLD) presence in Chicago ended on Sunday, with the closing of its Six Corners store, which opened in the Irving Park neighborhood 80 years ago.
    • The retailer has lost $11.2B since 2010, its last profitable year.
    • Sears launched its first stores, in 1925, in the city, but now has fewer than 1,000 outlets nationwide.

    • Genetic Technologies' (NASDAQ:GENEannounces that its new breast cancer and colorectal cancer risk assessment tests should be released in October.
    • Additionally, the company expects prostate cancer, melanoma, type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease tests available over the next 12 months.
    • Shares are up 45% premarket.

    • There's more analyst apprehension on Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) ahead of today's Q2 earnings report due out after the market closes.
    • Buckingham Research moves to an Underperform rating from Neutral on concerns over valuation and global competition. "International competitive intensity is increasing, while pricing power is limited in high growth and especially competitive middle-income markets like India," says analyst Matthew Harrigan. "As TV goes all- IP delivery globally and Netflix soon loses much outside content it will have to increasingly differentiate itself through in-house production as its user experience advantage erodes," he adds.
    • Citi warns that the short-term setup might not be favorable for the streamer even as it remains "positive" on the long-term prospects.
    • Last week, it was UBS and Deutsche Bank turning cautious ahead of the Netflix Q2 print.
    • NFLX +0.28% premarket to $396.90.

    Bloomberg: Apple loses key execs in India struggles

    • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has lost three execs in India in recent weeks, according to Bloomberg sources.
    • The departures include the national sales and distribution chief, the commercial channels and mid-market business head, and the leader of telecom carrier sales. 
    • Apple has struggled to gain traction in India due to high import tariffs and a consumer base that prefers cheaper smartphones. Apple has a single-digit market share in the country. 
    • Sources say Apple has been slow to cultivate local business relationships and has had difficulties understanding the market. 
    • Michel Coulomb took over as head of Indian operations last December. Coulomb has been with Apple since 2003 and was previously the South Asia managing director. 
    • Apple shares are up 0.2% premarket to $191.65.       
    • Previously: Apple roundup: Production starts on iPhone 6s in India, Barclays forecasts June Q(June 26)

  7. Phil still on the SCO Sept long call at 13 naked. Are we still holding out to sell callers? Stock is up 4% today.

  8. SCO trade rocking' and rollin'. Bang.

  9. StJ – good job in Moscow

  10. OLED – Strong.  Trading above the 50 dMA.

  11. For what’s worth NOC tree Jan 20 300/300 BCS bought at 16.25 sold Jan 20 285 put for 16.90 sold ½ Aug 17 285 put for 2.45 and sold Aug 17 330 call for 5.60. Many monthly strangles to sell to fill your pocket.

  12. SBUX armchair sell the Aug 24 51/52 strangler at 2.85 and buy the stock at 50.85

  13. IP I hold already the armchair for Aug and Oct but also good for new entries.

  14. ADS drops 7% today any one knows what gives?

  15. SCO/Yodi – See above, some brilliant trader says oil will fall back to $65.  cheeky

    So oil back to $65 is down 5% more, which is up 10-% more on SCO to about $18.50 and then we can sell some covers but I think now is too early though we do have to worry about the next round of holiday bullishness after the Aug rollover (20thish).

    At the moment, they have 5 days to roll out 160Mb(ish) so 32Mb/d should be easy for them but next month they have to start rolling to Dec and that month is fat.  The front 4 months were barely 1Bn into the summer but now, assuming just 120M from this month roll into the next 3/4, then Sept/Oct/Nov/Dec will be 1.2Bn again so that's a 20% increase in FAKE!!! orders in the last 30 days (while oil was going up).

    Click for
    Current Session Prior Day Opt's
    Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
    Aug'18 70.52 70.87 68.48 68.75 10:26
    Jul 16


    -2.26 243782 71.01 172793 Call Put
    Sep'18 69.52 69.78 67.47 67.75 10:26
    Jul 16


    -2.20 119980 69.95 438721 Call Put
    Oct'18 68.04 68.41 66.11 66.40 10:26
    Jul 16


    -2.15 38897 68.55 234650 Call Put
    Nov'18 67.61 67.87 65.63 65.95 10:26
    Jul 16


    -2.06 15266 68.01 128479 Call Put
    Dec'18 67.18 67.42 65.27 65.59 10:26
    Jul 16


    -1.99 28577 67.58 294191 Call Put
    Jan'19 66.88 66.99 64.95 65.19 10:26
    Jul 16


    -1.96 10102 67.15 159394 Call Put

    So, to summarize, I'm pretty confident in my target…

    And congrats to StJ, what a great run France had – I hope you found a good place to watch the game.  I watched England lose in a British Pub, things were so sad…

    That Cuba ETF (CUBA) at $6.68 seemed worth a toss but no options.

    GILD is pushing some sort of HIV prevention drug (TruVada) that I can't understand why people would take it because the potential side-effects are ghastly and they say you still need a condom but it just adds a little more protection.  

    What are the other possible side effects of TRUVADA for PrEP?

    Serious side effects of TRUVADA may also include:

    • Kidney problems, including kidney failureYour healthcare provider should do blood and urine tests to check your kidneys before and during treatment with TRUVADA. If you develop kidney problems, your healthcare provider may tell you to stop taking TRUVADA.
    • Too much lactic acid in your blood (lactic acidosis), which is a serious but rare medical emergency that can lead to death. Tell your healthcare provider right away if you get these symptoms: weakness or being more tired than usual, unusual muscle pain, being short of breath or fast breathing, stomach pain with nausea and vomiting, cold or blue hands and feet, feel dizzy or lightheaded, or a fast or abnormal heartbeat.
    • Severe liver problems, which in rare cases can lead to death. Tell your healthcare provider right away if you get these symptoms: skin or the white part of your eyes turns yellow, dark "tea-colored" urine, light-colored stools, loss of appetite for several days or longer, nausea, or stomach-area pain.
    • Bone problems, including bone pain, softening, or thinning, which may lead to fractures. Your healthcare provider may do tests to check your bones.

    Common side effects in people taking TRUVADA for PrEP are headache, stomach-area (abdomen) pain, and decreased weight. Tell your healthcare provider if you have any side effects that bother you or do not go away.

    I mean, really?  How does a drug like this not fail in testing?

    Someone needs to reign in the madness of drug marketing in this country…

    NOC/Yodi – Almost identical chart to LMT.  I like LMT a little better because the F35 finally works well enough to sell and, of course, FUSION! 

    Still, any defense stock is a good bet with Trump stomping around the globe causing chaos. 

    SBUX is a great call at $50 and we don't have it in the LTP so:

    • Sell 10 SBUX 2020 $50 puts for $5 ($5,000) 
    • Buy 15 SBUX 2020 $50 calls for $6.20 ($9,300) 
    • Sell 10 SBUX 2020 $57.50 calls for $3.20 ($3,200) 

    That's net $1,100 on the $11,250 spread and room to sell 5 shorter calls when it gets closer to $55 for some monthly income (5 short Aug $50 calls are $2 for $1,000, for example).  Since we're only 2/3 covered, short calls can't hurt us.

    I know I said I wanted to cash things out but that doesn't mean there aren't still good bargains to buy…

  16. That was a nice dip, finally.  Be careful as it's bouncy already.

  17. Trump talking up Russia in his speech, what great partners they are.  "Syria is complicated"…  

    He's clearing his throat a lot – maybe Putin poisoned him?

    No mention of discussing election tampering.

    Doing Q&A – this will be interesting.

  18. Zero collusion Trump says.  Well, that's it, we can all go home now…

  19. Yeah…and things are good as of 4 hours ago….What the hell does that mean?

  20. Do Putin's lips move when Trump is talking?

  21. What is there to partner with Russia? We hardly trade with them, they have a GDP lower than California's. As McCain said, it's a gas station with nukes!

  22. Putin says name a single fact that proves the collusion.  See – no collusion!  

    Uh-oh, now Putin is saying "certain" people can show their sympathy for Trump's campaign in "certain" ways and what's wrong with that?  

    Putin says Meuller can request that RUSSIA interrogate the witnesses but Russia would then be able to question our CIA and FBI officials that they suspect of doing things.  OMG – how does the market not collapse on this BS?!?

    Traitor Trump is nodding at everything Putin says, even though what he just said was completely outrageous…

  23. LOL 1020… I'll put a deposit right now.

  24. Trump / Phil – It might be possible that Mueller is actually building a case not for collusion, but treason now. If you look at the article I posted earlier, the US intelligence was able to find the name of the GRU guys who hacked Hillary's email. I think that it's quite possible they also have transcripts of all the Putin-Trump conversations!

  25. And Trump chooses to believe Putin over his own intelligence services and Justice department! It's just maddening and insane on its own. Why more people are not outraged at that is simply bewildering. 

  26. Tdump is toast – What i'm looking forward to is those who will circle the drain with him….

  27. innocent!!

    like OJ!!

  28. Trump said Putin said it's wasn't Russia that hacked the election and he has no reason not to believe him but the real question is what happened to Hillary Clinton's Emails?  In Russia they wouldn't be gone so easily.  Call's Putin's offer NOT to allow subpoenas a "great offer" – what a tool!

    Putin says:  "Do you deny the United States is a Democracy?  Then you can't accuse this company of interference without a trial.  I know a thing or two about dossiers!"  WOW!!!   

    Trump's last word is "Witch Hunt" after saying Strzok's testimony was "A disgrace to our country and a disgrace to the FBI."  


  29. ….everything but So.Cal…… :)

  30. HMNY – New low.  Schwab is offering 24% to borrow stock.

  31. SKX/Phil- I like SKX value play, is that official LTP?

  32. I don't know what Putin has on Trump, but it must be really big for him to behave treasonously! 

  33. Urine?

  34. Guy on Bloomberg made a good point: "If there wasn't collusion before, there was certainly collusion at that press conference."  LOL!  

    HMNY – Almost time to DD again at 0.10.  Only costs another $1,000 so why not? 

    SKX/Dave – Yes, official for the LTP! 

    • Sell 10 SKX 2020 $30 puts for $5.25 ($5,250) 
    • Buy 20 SKX Jan (2019) $28 calls for $6 ($12,000) 
    • Sell 20 SKX Jan (2019) $34 calls for $3 ($6,000) 

    ?That's net $750 on the $12,000 spread that's $6,000 in the money to start and our break-even is $29 so SKX has to drop $2.29 before we have any concern at all.  We're doing the 2019 bull call spread to take advantage if theres a quick move higher as those will hit $5 of our $6 goal if, for some reason, SKX pops back to $40 (not counting on it).  Still, $35 is a very realistic goal for the year's end.  The upside potential on the play is $11,250, which is a 1,500% return on cash if SKX goes 10% higher and our worst case is being forced to own 1,000 shares of SKX at net $30.75 – just a bit below where it is now.

    Down a bit today so easy fills.  

    Putin/StJ – In all seriousness, I think what Putin has on Trump is Trump only wants to be President to get rich like Putin and Putin just gave him a pep talk about how, when he was first elected, people said he was a crook and a thug and was robbing Russia blind but he killed all his enemies and things got much better for Putin and now he's worth $70Bn.  THAT is what Trump is motivated by! 

  35. 'Only' 70 billion?  I say he has Bezos beat….

  36. Oil down to $68!  /BZ under $72. 

    /RB failing $2.01 so about to test $2.  

    Dollar is propping things up with a huge 0.8% fall from Friday's high.

    Still metals can't hold it together:

    Putin/1020 – Hard to say exactly what he's worth but it's a lot for a guy who never worked outside the public sector.

  37. Besides the clown, I can not find out why ADS is down 8.7% can some one help pls.

  38. ADS/Yodi – All I see is a bit more charge-offs and delinquencies in June and an 11% rise in Receivables so I guess people think their sales numbers may be inflated in relation to how much cash they'll actually be able to collect?

    Alliance Data reports June net charge offs 6.6% vs. 6.4% last month – Reports June delinquency rate 5.5% vs. 5.4% las
    ( 07/16 07:30:26)

    Alliance Data  reports June net charge offs 6.6% vs. 6.4% last month -
    Reports June delinquency rate 5.5% vs. 5.4% last month. 

    Alliance Data Systems Sees 11% Increase in June Receivables
    (MT Newswires 07/16 08:01:30)


    08:01 AM EDT, 07/16/2018 (MT Newswires) — Alliance Data Systems (ADS), a
    provider of data-driven marketing, said its card services segment saw $17.7
    million in receivables for the month of June, up 11% over June 2017.

    Net charge-offs for the month were at 97,406, up 6.6% from the prior year.

    Seems like a pretty violent reaction to me but maybe there's more to it?

  39. Wow, fights breaking out all over TV about whether or not Trump just committed treason.  

    People are very pissed…

  40. If it walks like a duck… why are people shocked when it quacks? How much evidence do we need before people believe Trump is selling this country down the river for his own benefit? We are bankrupt already and he is taking advantage. Look at his history, why would anyone be surprised? It only gets worse year after year, we're waiting for interest rates to normalize to make it obvious we are in such a deep hole with no plan to get out, and we keep digging… the plan seems to be keep spending until we can't anymore. Space force anyone? Then what? This isn't Trump's fault, but his actions do appear to border on treason. Look what he's gotten away with so far. He will continue to walk that tightrope as long as we let him. He will blame others for everything always. Remember the term "the buck stops here?" You'll never see it on his desk. You will however likely see it in his bank account. I'm shocked!  Not. Prepare as best you can.

  41. Phil/ ABW strategy – I like the way you seem to have accommodated your approach to be slightly more cautious in selling 1x LEAP short puts, and 1.5x LEAP long calls and 1x LEAP short calls (see SBUX trade above). Noted that the SKX trade is 1x / 2x / 1x.

    In the SBUX trade if you sold the Aug '18 $50 short calls now, they could be rolled (if needed) to Jan '20 $60 short calls for a small credit. Maybe that bird is worth being in the hand now? And support the case for caution.

  42. Senate Intelligence Republican Rohrabacher now says "Meddling is not the same as collusion" – that's the position they are backing into now?

    SKX/Winston – Well with 20 fully covered, selling 5 short is not too dangerous and I don't see why SKX would blast higher.  SBUX is more dangerous so I'd rather play it with the 5 open longs until we get a move higher.  I know they can be rolled but I don't see why SBUX would have poor earnings and they are low in the channel so I'd rather take a chance they pop.  It's not a big chance…  Certainly you CAN play it more conservatively but when I have a good feeling – I go for it.

  43. Thanks Phil ADS most appreciated. Possible a good place to sell some puts.

  44. Phil – not sure what is ebing announced but Truvada is one of the NHS’s standard treatments for HIV (together with a booster drug) for HIV infection and for anyone who may have been exposed to the virus. The side effects can be miserable when you take it for 28 days in a big dose but its effective at destroying the virus before it can take hold. When its taken as a treatment for actual infection it is also effective and it is used in the UK as a preventative (not available on our NHS for free but the NHS will monitor those who purchase it privately to check for kidney problems) its really effective and the side effects are not as bad. Our NHS uses the drug extensively.

  45. WTAF – Did you President just publicly dismiss an agent of your domestic security services at a Press Conference with a foreign enemy? Okay, the UK has gone a little mental over the last year but … wow …just wow.

    So, anyone want to buy some water filters?

  46. Truvada/Malsg – They have been advertising it a lot and it seems they want people to just take it constantly as a prevention (maybe lower dosage?).  It's just all those side effects make it seem not worth it for simply preventing HIV – Of course if you have HIV or have been exposed, then sure, take a chance but just to take it because you intend to engage in risky behavior?  

    And I'll take a gross of water filters please!  

  47. Peak oil demand seen in fewer than 20 years, Wood Mackenzie forecasts

    • Global oil demand will peak at around 2036, says oil consultancy Wood Mackenzie, an earlier date than many energy majors use in their scenario planning.
    • Wood Mackenzie’s long-term energy outlook, which was given to clients in May but not yet reported, comes as some of the world’s oil majors have begun to prepare for a future when oil demand is no longer steadily rising while others have been more hesitant, chiefly Exxon Mobil (XOM -1%) and giant state-owned oil companies such as Saudi Aramco, which have resisted the notion that demand for their primary fossil fuel products could stop growing within 20 years.
    • “Autonomous electric vehicles or robo-taxis will really change the face of transport in the coming decades,” says Ed Rawl, Wood Mackenzie’s head of crude oil research. “We presume they become commercial by 2030 and widely accepted by 2035… They will be on the road far more as they are autonomous, displacing a disproportionate amount of oil-based transport."
    • But seeing peak oil demand on the distant horizon does not mean lower prices in the short term, Rawl says, as growing U.S. supply should turn the U.S. into by far the biggest oil producer by the middle of the next decade but output from other countries outside OPEC likely will slow by ~2023.
    • Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.ARDS.B) confirms it lifted the force majeure declared May 17 on exports of Nigerian crude Bonny Light following the repair and reopening of the Nembe Creek Trunkline.
    • Bonny Light is one of Nigeria's key export grades, with production of 200K-250K bbl/day, and is popular with global refiners.
    • Bonny Light was under force majeure earlier this year and three times last year due to pipeline leaks caused by attacks from militants.
    • Cnooc (CEO -2.8%) is willing to invest another $3B in its existing oil and gas operation in Nigeria, according to the country's national oil company following a meeting with the Chinese in Abuja.
    • During the visit, Cnooc CEO Yuan Guangyu reportedly said the company had invested more than $14B in its Nigerian operations and was ready to invest more since the country was its largest investment destination.
    • Nigeria has been holding talks with oil majors over new finance agreements for joint ventures since last year, and last year signed financing deals with Chevron and Royal Dutch Shell worth at least $780M.
    • Crude oil prices accelerate earlier losses as U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says some oil buyers could get waivers to continue buying Iranian supplies despite sanctions; U.S. WTI -3.6%at $68.47/bbl, Brent -3.5% at $72.71/bbl.
    • But analysts say higher production from Libya and the possibility that Russia could agree to further increase supply to fill possible production gaps are mostly behind today's steep losses.
    • Russia and other oil producers could raise output by 1M bbl/day or more if shortages hit the market, Russian Energy Minister Novak told reporters on Friday, prompting Commerzbank commodities analyst Carsten Fritsch to say that the comments had reminded the market of the determination by Russia and Saudi Arabia to pump more oil if needed.
    • The Trump administration is considering a release from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, WSJ reported on Friday.
    • Investors also may be reacting to news that China’s economic expansion eased slightly in Q2, rising 6.7% vs. 6.8% in Q1, weighed by the government's debt cleanup even before growth takes an expected hit from the trade fight with the U.S.

    • The European Commission will soon decide on Google’s (GOOGGOOGL) fine for antitrust practices related to its Android OS.
    • The decision was originally expected last week but was delayed by President Trump’s visit to a NATO summit. The decision is now expected on Wednesday. 
    • Reuters sources say the fine will likely exceed the $2.8B penalty Google received last year for favoring its shopping service over competitors. 
    • Regulators accuse Google of forcing smartphone makers to pre-install its Search, Play Store, and Chrome browser.  
    • Previously: WSJ: Google facing multibillion-euro fine from EU over Android (July 10)


    Image result for gene editing cartoon
    • CRISPR/Cas9 gene-editors Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -5.9%), Editas Medicine (EDIT -4.8%) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -5.4%) are all underwater on below-average volume on the heels of a just-published paper in Nature Biotechnology.
    • The authors claim that CRISPR-Cas9 can cause large DNA deletions and rearrangements near the target site, presenting a potential hurdle in interpreting experimental results and in designing specific therapies.
    • According to Salk Institute bioengineer Patrick Hsu, the finding is in line with previous results from not only CRISPR but also other gene-editing systems. Such unwanted edits are a problem that warrants more attention from researchers. "I do think this has been underappreciated by the field," he says.
    • Study lead Allan Bradley of the Wellcome Sanger Institute in Hinxton, UK says, “The cell will try to stitch things back together, but it doesn’t really know what bits of DNA lie adjacent to each other.”
    • According to Intellia SVP Thomas Barnes, the company has been looking for large deletions in gene-editing studies in mouse livers, but have found no evidence of such deletions, adding that this may be due to the low rates of division in the cells his team is working on. Bradley's study used actively dividing cells.
    • Brandeis University molecular biologist James Haber says the unwanted edits are a problem, but not a development killer for anyone using the gene editing technology. "It means that when people use it, they need to do a more thorough analysis. It's generally important to know whether your mutations are as you think they are."
    • Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is down 3.11% to start the week after some head-scratching developments with CEO Elon Musk.
    • Musk popped up on this list of donors to the GOP-friendly Protect The House political committee to the surprise of some and engaged in a heated Twitter battles with one of the rescue cave divers in Thailand. For his part, Musk says he gives "nominal" amounts to both parties to maintain dialogue and subsequently deleted his most controversial tweet on the British diver.
    • It's only been about a week since Musk said he would be "better' about steering clear of Twitter wars.
    • What to watch: Tesla is due to reports earnings during the first week of August. A level-headed performance on the post-earnings conference call by Musk could go a long way to calming some of the recent anxiety over the CEO expressed by Wall Street analysts.
    • Gogo (GOGO -4.7%) will likely need to pursue an equity raise that will be dilutive, Northland Securities says, even as SmartSky presents more formidable competition in business aviation.
    • The company on Friday held a conference call on a new business plan that sent shares to double-digit losses amid skeptical reactions.
    • "GOGO is an open heart surgery patient that requires more than a Band-Aid to reverse their deep rooted I/S and B/S woes," writes analyst Paul Penney. Management tried a "Fred Astaire tap dance impersonation" on the call, but the company probably needs to pursue an equity raise to avoid a "going concern" issue in a Deloitte & Touche audit, and it faces near-term debt maturities that need to be addressed soon. (h/t Bloomberg)
    • Meanwhile, SmartSky has a number of advantages in its 4G LTE offering, he says.

  48. RTN/Phil- do you like RTN with the chances of increase military spending? :)

  49. RTN/Dave – Honestly, I only like LMT as a poke on fusion long-term and not enough to play it at these prices (we liked it when it was below $200 for the LTP 2 years ago).  RTN is also already very expensive at $200, up from $120 in 2016 and for what?

    Year End 31st Dec 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 TTM 2018E 2019E CAGR / Avg
    Revenue $m 24,414 23,706 22,826 23,321 24,124 25,348 25,615 26,781 28,282 +0.8%
    Operating Profit $m 2,989 2,938 3,179 3,067 3,295 3,318 3,618     +2.1%
    Net Profit $m 1,888 1,996 2,244 2,110 2,244 2,024 2,151 2,840 3,201 +1.4%
    EPS Reported $ 5.65 5.96 6.97 6.87 7.56 7.53 8.00     +5.9%
    EPS Normalised $ 5.65 5.96 6.97 6.87 7.56 7.53 8.00 9.91 11.4 +5.9%
    EPS Growth % +8.2 +5.4 +17.0 -1.4 +10.0 -0.4 +1.9 +31.7 +15.0  
    PE Ratio x           26.5 25.0 20.1 17.5  
    PEG x           0.84 0.79 1.35 1.11

    Last year was no better than 2016 yet up to $180 (+50%) and now $200?  What justifies these moves?  They project a 30% increase in profits which would justify 1.3 x 120 = $156 but the problem is people then extrapolate that as if they'll grow every year (maybe if Trump keeps doubling down on military) but, so far, earnings growth has been NOTHING like 30% – not even 10% – barely 5% in fact:

    Earnings History 6/29/2017 9/29/2017 12/30/2017 3/30/2018
    EPS Est. 1.76 1.91 2.02 2.11
    EPS Actual 1.89 1.97 2.03 2.19
    Difference 0.13 0.06 0.01 0.08
    Surprise % 7.40% 3.10% 0.50% 3.80%

    So no, not too interested unless they get back to $160 (and as long as it's not because they messed up, of course). 

  50. AMZN juggernaut continues !

    Bezos should just give Trump 4 or 5 billion if he agrees to resign.  No love lost between those two.

  51. HMNY/Dave – Wow, are people now writing articles specifically to refute me?  

    1. Sirius XM got a life-changing capital infusion

    So HMNY didn't get one — yet.  What point does that make.  Not a lot of sugar daddies in the movie business?  Their projected losses for 2 years are less than any studio loses on a flop.

    2. Sirius XM turned profitable 

    Again – yet?  Have we given HMNY a couple of quarters (and no, SIRI was NOT at all profitable in a couple of quarters.  In fact, they ended up in a suit with Howard Stern because they were underwater and so were his options.  They didn't make money until years later, when they merged with XM and this author is either an idiot or he does no it and is simply being paid to lie to you.

    3. MoviePass doesn't have pricing elasticity

    So it's either $30 or $10 and nothing in between?  100M NFLX subscribers would beg to differ.  

    But, of course, who am I to argue with Keith Noonan?  

    CAPS Stats & Trivia

    Score Club 200 Long-term Score Club 100 Score Club 300
    CAPS Player Rating 55.64
    Player Rank 30958 out of 69784
    Score 921.44
    Score Change Today   <td class="result pos" "="" style="border-top: 1px dotted rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right: none; border-bottom: 1px dotted rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left: none; border-image: initial; margin: 0px; padding: 5px 0px; font-style: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(68, 170, 0); line-height: 18px;">+16.90
    Accuracy 39.53%

    This just in, I have a coin that says "heads" so buy HMNY – that coin ranks 25% higher than Noonan in overall predictions!  cheeky

    Wow, former CIA director willing to call a spade a spade:

    Donald Trump’s press conference performance in Helsinki rises to & exceeds the threshold of “high crimes & misdemeanors.” It was nothing short of treasonous. Not only were Trump’s comments imbecilic, he is wholly in the pocket of Putin. Republican Patriots: Where are you???


    Why did Trump meet 1 on 1 with Putin? What might he be hiding from Bolton, Pompeo, Kelly, & the American public? How will Putin use whatever Trump could be hiding to advantage Russia & hurt America? Trump’s total lack of credibility renders spurious whatever explanation he gives.

    Bezos/Albo – LOL!  How about he gives $4Bn to the Democrats so they can take back the House and Senate – that would be better and Trump would be totally lame duck (if not in jail).

  52. NRZ/HMNY/Phil almost at 0.11 now, by the way did anyone's NRZ get called off? Mine got called off and I am only left with the puts, should I close my puts and take profit?

  53. AMZN should put hot butter knives on prime special – at least after NFLX earnings

  54. Would the term cuckold be inappropriate to describe Trump's relationship with Putin?

  55. NRZ/Dave – Well it's way over but the 2020 $15 calls are $3.30 so $18.30 is still 0.08 premium and the dividend is 0.50 but that paid on 6/29 so why on Earth would you get called away today?  If so, then they gave you 0.08 but, as a re-sell, I'd sell the $17s for $1.50 instead as that's 0.28 premium so safer for next dividends (also gives you $2 more gains if they hold it).  

    AMZN/That – Apparently having server issues on Prime Day – that's a no-no.

    Cuckold/Fel – Does that mean bitch?  wink

  56. NRZ/Phil- no idea, apparently it got called away close to the ex-dividend date….. buying again at this price level is advisable? $18.23 now

    • Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) App Store generated $22.6B in worldwide gross app revenue in 1H18, according to Sensor Tower data
    • Google Play had $11.8B in revenue in the same period. 
    • Last year, the figures were $38.5B for Apple and $20.1B for Google.
    • Sensor Tower estimates that iOS sales have increased 26.8% Y/Y and 29.7% for Google.
    • Caesars Entertainment (CZR +1.1%) announces that it completed the acquisition of Centaur Holdings for $1.7B to add the Hoosier Park Racing and Casino in Anderson, Indiana and Indiana Grand Racing and Casino  in Shelbyville, Indiana to its casino portfolio.
    • "The Centaur acquisition expands our footprint to the attractive central Indiana region with exciting new destinations that are profitable, well-capitalized and highly complementary to our existing portfolio," says Caesars CEO Mark Frissora.
    • Caesars Entertainment plans to invest $50M in various property improvements and IT upgrades and anticipates introducing table games to the locations.
    • Caesars says the effective purchase price multiple of the acquisitions will end up being less than 7X after the tables games and synergies are factored in.
    • Source: Press Release
    • Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB+8.3% in late U.S. trading after Germany's largest bank said its Q2 net income and pretax profit would both surpass consensus estimates.
    • Shares traded as high as $12.20 today, the highest since May 24. Its 52-week high, though, was $20.23 on Dec. 18. More than 15M shares changed hands, approaching three times its three-month average daily volume of 5.3M.
    • Q2 group revenue is expected to be EUR6.6B, compared with consensus estimate of EUR6.4B.
    • Common equity tier 1 capital ratio is expected to be 13.6% vs. consensus estimate of 13.3; fully loaded leverage ratio forecast to be 3.9% vs. 3.7% average consensus est.
    • Full Q2 earnings results are set to be released on July 25, 2018.
    • Previously: Strong forecast sends Deutsche Bank up 7% (July 16)
    • "This time is different" are the four most dangerous words in economics, says Minneapolis Fed boss Neel Kashkari.
    • While many go to great lengths each economic cycle to explain away an inverted yield curve, Kashkari reminds it's been a perfect indicator of a coming recession for the last half-century.
    • The yield is curve is nearly flat at the moment, but threatens to go negative soon, particularly if the Fed continues its rate-hike cycle. Reason enough, says Kashkari, for the central bank to think twice about more tightening.
    • Kashkari isn't a voter on the FOMC this year, and his dovish views aren't too much of a surprise.
    • Nutrisystem (NTRI +2.2%) trades higher after announcing the launch of DNA Body Blueprint.
    • The company says the genetic-based product uses a proprietary algorithm that provides an integrated personal action plan focused on eating behaviors, nutrition and metabolism.
    • A national marketing campaign will be launched by Nutrisystem next week.
    • "By providing a personalized overview that is the ultimate roadmap for an individual’s ongoing nutritional needs, this product delivers on our mission of helping consumers make more informed choices and achieve outcomes that drive overall health," says Nutrisystem CEO Dawn Zier.
    • Source: Press Release
    • What happened to Whirlpool (WHR -1.6%) following the imposition of import tariffs on rivals LG Electronics and Samsung wasn't exactly according to plan, notes The Wall Street Journal.
    • Higher input costs on steel and aluminum have contributed to a decline in net income and shares of Whirlpool are down 15% since the import tariff was hailed by some as a "win" for the company.
    • Whirlpool management is due to give another update on how tariffs have played out for the company when earnings are disclosed next week.
    • Euro zone's surplus for goods traded with the rest of the world dropped in May to €16.5B compared to €19.3B in as exports fell 0.8% and imports increased 0.7%, one month before United States' tariffs on European steel and aluminum kicked in, official data showed on Monday.
    • The European commission cut its growth forecast for the eurozone for 2018, citing trade tensions as one of the main reasons for the slowdown.
    • The 28-country EU expanded the surplus in its trade in goods with the United States, the bloc's main trade partner, to €54.8B compared with €48.1 in the same period of the previous year.

    /NRZ/Dave – We bought it for $16.60 and sold the $15 calls for $1.95 so I'm not going to use the term "advisable" as it's no longer a great deal BUT you DID buy it for net $14.65 (not counting the $2.10 short puts) and got called away so up 0.35 there and then buying again for $18.22 and selling the $17 calls for $1.50 is net $16.72 less the 0.35 gained is $16.37 so you'd be back in at that price though you COULD sell the $15s for $3.20 and net in for $14.67 – EXACTLY where we started.  I just suggested the higher strike since you don't seem to like getting called away.  

    Of course, the short puts pay as much as the dividend without all that messy owning the stock so you could always just sell more puts or be happy with the puts you did sell and let them expire while you move on to other things. 

  57. nflx…

  58. My NRZ was called also, but on 6/27.

  59. NFLX – Wheeeee!   Down $50!

  60. See, that's why I wanted to do the Jans and not 2020 – we can get paid early and get out.

  61. So there is some sanity after all in the market,

  62. Big wheeeee on the whole Nasdaq!  

  63. Those sqqq calls might finally start to pay off. Like to see TESLA tank also.

  64. NFLX is still about $300 from a buying opportunity!

  65. Phil really a great tip on NFLX in your early morning (yesterday) comment. Nearly 5K in one day not to often. Thanks.

  66. Republicans Rebuke Trump for Siding With Putin as Democrats Demand Action

  67. Good morning!

    You're welcome Yodi.

    Dow (/YM) is the laggard to the downside this morning at 25,025, game on if /NQ fails 7,300 and /ES fails 2,790 and /RTY looking to cross below 1,680 as well but be aware – this is also where they all may bounce.

    Dollar seems to be done falling at 94