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$2,000 Thursday – Our Live Trading Webinar Makes a Quick Two Grand!

I love it when a plan comes together.  

In yesterday's Live Trading Webinar (replay available here) we worked our way into 6 short Dow (/YM) Futures shorts at an average of about 25,167 and we rode them down this morning to the 25,100 line for a quick $2,000 gain on the set and then, in our Live Member Chat Room, we called for a follow-on short below the 25,100 line, with a target of 25,000 for another $500 per contract gain.

It's been a busy week as we have options expirations so we're reviewing our 5 Member Portfolios, one of which we share with the viewers of Business News Network's (Canada's Bloomberg) Money Talk in a portfolio where we only initiate and change trades on the show so every single trade is available to the viewers live.  The disadvange to that restriction is that we can't make adjustments between shows (I'm on quarterly) so we try to stick to low-touch value trades but, as we teach our Members, trading does not have to be exciting to be profitable and our Money Talk Portfolio is already up 68.6% since we intiated it last September (10 months).  Not bad for free samples!  

You can see the review of the adjustments we made yesterday at and here are the clips from the show talking about the market, the portfolio and adding a new trade idea on General Foods (GIS):

Money Talk segments #1 and #2:  

As noted, we are moving to a lot more CASH!!! and were shorting the market as we're taking the trade war more seriously than other investors seem to be and, just this morning, to prove my point, there was more saber-rattling from the President about Auto Tariffs, which would be a horrifically bad idea for the entire Global Economy.  That's what sent the market lower, despite pretty good earnings reports so far.

Just because we're generally bearish doesn't mean we can't find values in the market – they are just few and far between.  On BNN I noted that Barrick Gold (ABX) at $12.25 and Limited Brands (LB) at $32.50 are both great bargains and both of the above spreads are cheaper now than when we first picked them up so our loss is your discount if you are coming in fresh!  

We didn't find anything particularly encouraging in yesterday's Beige Book Report by the Fed – not in the context of having record-high stock prices.  With record-high stock prices we should be seeing words like "strong" and "robust" not "modest" and "moderate" – this economy is slowing down, not speeding up and speeding up is what's priced in but we won't get a correction until the earnings begin to show how faulty the bulls' premise really is at this point.

As you can see from Citi's Economic Surprise Index, the trend has been lower and lower after a pause on the way down in Q1 but Q2 has been TERRIBLE for data reports yet Consumer Sentiment is still strong, mostly because our Government lies to us an average of 9 times a day, telling us how wonderful things are and how there was no meddling in the election or, if there was meddling, there was no collusion and, if there was collusion, then the investigation into it is taking to long so we should shut it down or let Vladimir Putin take over for Robert Mueller and be allowed to question witnesses and let us know whether he and Trump were guilty.  No wonder people are confused!  

Speaking of confused: Sasha Cohen gets GOP and NRA idiots into supporting fake and RIDICULOUS idea of arming children in the schools.  These are real people who are influential policy makers – what else but "deplorable" describes them?

"The Liberals are using these school shootings to further their anti-tragedy agenda."  Priceless (5:50)!   And then they guy agrees with him!   He also gets the guy to high-five him over "It's not rape if it's your wife."  Though at least the guy says (hoping) "That probably won't be on the air."  

What's really horrible is how easily he can push himself in front of actual Congresspeople with a lunatic agenda and then gets them to give testimonials reading obvious (to others) nonsense off a teleprompter.  He gets Joe Walsh (R-IL) to say "A first grader can become a first grenader" and Larry Pratt cites totally fake studies stating children have "the pheromone Blink 182" which is, of course, a rock band along with other pop-culture nonsense that goes right over this guy's head yet he's the "expert witness" Congress goes to to pass laws!

Only a drastically under-educated populace falls for this kind of BS! (or elects these morons to represent them)

Fortunately, Stephen Colbert has a cartoon we can all understand:

That's just TODAY folks – be careful out there!


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  1. He knew and keeps on lying:

    Two weeks before his inauguration, Donald J. Trump was shown highly classified intelligence indicating that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had personally ordered complex cyberattacks to sway the 2016 American election. The evidence included texts and emails from Russian military officers and information gleaned from a top-secret source close to Mr. Putin, who had described to the C.I.A. how the Kremlin decided to execute its campaign of hacking and disinformation.

  2. Phil – GIS is ticker symbol for General Mills rather than General Foods. General Foods has an interesting history. Bought by Philip Morris companies inc in the 1980's, merged with Kraft after PM inc. bought that company to be Kraft General Foods. Kraft spun off from PM when PM split into PM and MO. Then Kraft split into Kraft and Mondelez. Then Heinz bought Kraft to form Kraft Heinz, leaving Mondelez as a standalone company.

    I wonder along that particular journey, how much value was created, jobs eliminated, factories consolidated, investment management fees paid, bond issues remunerated etc. What a web is weaved in the corporate world in search of the golden coin.

  3. Bye-bye LIBOR:

    On Thursday, a meeting that is scheduled at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will focus on preparing for a world without Libor: A panel is expected to address crucial details, including the best ideas for language that should be used to replace Libor in contracts for financial products like business loans, derivatives and floating-rate notes.

  4. Good Morning.

  5. No help from the tax cuts:

    In the postwar period, with top marginal income tax rates at more than 90 percent, it made sense to cut taxes as a way of improving the economy’s long-term health. A series of big tax cuts, under presidents Lyndon Johnson and Ronald Reagan, might have boosted economic activity in their day. But the later tax cuts by George W. Bush were followed by years of underwhelming growth, implying that income taxes were no longer doing much damage to economic efficiency.

    Corporate taxes were really the last hope for the tax-cutting strategy. But if even that doesn’t provide more than a small momentary fiscal stimulus, then we’ve reached the end of that approach’s usefulness.

  6. Interesting chart:

    You have to love the snark via Mike Rosenberg, the Seattle Times reporter covering housing and real estate:

    “Socialist hellhole leads nation in cranes, home price increases and pay increases”

  7. Phil, is it to early to hop into /NGV8 or /NGH9?   

  8. Good morning, All!

    The webinar replay is now available!

  9. Good morning! 

    Double reject off 25,200 so far but indexes are still strong and we'll see if NYSE can hold the Must Hold, which would be a good sign of additional strength.

    12 long /YG now at 1,233.5, which is accurate as I haven't bought any back yet.  Down $7K.

    Just 2 long /SI at $15.447 and nice pop off $15.20 so far.

    The Dollar doesn't have to come down for gold and silver to recover – it just has to stop going up!

    General Mills/Winston – Well GIS is the one I meant to play, fortunately.  No wonder I'm confused though…  

    LIBOR/StJ – They want to get rid of it because that signaled the last massive sell-off.  They don't want there to be easy signals for retailers to watch.

    LOL on Seattle comment – Yeah, that minimum wage hike must be destroying their economy, right?  Here's a good study from Trump's Alma Mater on the wage hikes and their impact so far.     

    (Image: Seattle's Minimum Wage. Source: The Office of Mayor Edward B. Murray)

    /NG/Grass – If you play, you want to be in for hurricane season (into Nov) so /NGZ8 in the least.  This year though, hurricane season doesn't look like it will amount to much (famous last words) so, in the very least, I'd be patient and let /NG show us where the floor is before getting in.

    Speaking of floors (or tops), /CL $68.50 is now a short again (tight stops above).

  10. Wow, nice reversal already!  

    Might not need a bigger chart…

  11. ~~ Oil prices rallying after Saudi said that talk of being in a market oversupply has been said without basis.

  12. Phil/DIS

    DIS keeps driving up.  (FOX is theirs-CMCSA backs out) Would you change anything with your suggested adjustment? DIS:  $13.98

  13. LOL, he can SAY that if he wants but numbers don't lie.  They are like clockwork, jumping in to try to support /BZ at $72 ($67.50 on /CL).  Worse than /BZ (Brent) is OPEC's own basket rates, which are in free-fall:

    Image result for oil glut

    DIS/DC – No, same roll as we'll just roll it again if it keeps going higher and, if that doesn't work, we'll buy another bull call spread that pays us 3:1.

  14. /TF has really been in a tight trading range between 1680 and 1700 for the past several trading sessions. A breakout either way should be indicative where we are heading during the summer months. 

  15. Phil/DIS

    Thanks for the confidence.  Making me nervous.

  16. /NG – Phil,  A follow-up ???   /NGH9 is cheaper by .03 cents and appears to move in-line with /NGZ8.  Cover winter too?  

  17. Quick $500 on 2 /CL contracts is perfectly acceptable…  Might hit that again at $68.50 if it bounces that high.

    /TV/Den – Well over 1,700 now!  Whole index is moving like a penny stock:

    400 to 8000 then back to 400 makes for a proper floor so then 800 again and consolidation at 1,200 and now a run to 1,600 with a 20% (of 400) overshoot would be 1,680 so watch that line.  If it's support, then we could be at 2,000 before a proper pullback but I doubt earnings will support 1,680 and the 80-point spike wouldn't count so retraces from 1,600 would be 1,520 (weak) and 1,440 (strong).

    In fact, I'm going to take 4 short /RTY with tight stops above 1,700 for fun.  This market changes every hour or so, it seems.  

    DIS/DC – It takes practice to learn not to worry about those short calls but, if you are 3:1 covered on the longs – it's really hard to get hurt.  

    /NG/Grass – There is almost always a sell-off into Jan/Feb so keep in mind you don't actually want to be in it that long.  The expectation of the sell-off is what keeps those contracts cheap.

  18. LOL – There's $150 made in 10 seconds!  

  19. Actually, I'm working hard to offset my gold and silver losses…  crying

  20. Most analysts are now negative on AVGO.  But one analyst has a positive opinion.

    ~~Piper Jaffray analyst Harsh Kumar said that after taking a deeper look at the proposed acquisition and speaking with Broadcom Chief Financial Officer Thomas Krause late last week, he now believes the San Jose-based chipmaker's decision to buy CA was a “meticulously” planned decision.

    “It may end up being one of Broadcom’s best acquisitions over the last several years," Kumar wrote in a note to clients on Monday.

    Phil, I remember that you are positive.  Any trade ideas ?


  21. Thank you Phil.  If you had to pick only one, would it be Coffee, Gold, or Silver at these levels?   Knowing your /KC pick is in July 2019.   TIA 

  22. By the way, I did the Butterfly Portfolio update early this morning.

    Short-Term Portfolio Update (STP):  Surprisingly, we're now at $212,917 which is up 113% for the year and up a crazy $38,717 since our 6/13 review.  That's not bad for our "hedges" in a non-stop bull market.  Of course it was our quick winners and good timing flipping our hedges (hedging the hedges) that made all the money – not the hedges themselves.  IQ and TSLA are big winners but so volatile that I wouldn't leave them on if we weren't so far ahead in both portfolios that we could afford the gambles. 

    Those two new trades were pretty much all the gains but that's fine as the other stuff is HEDGES that are INSURANCE to protect the 30% gain ($150,000) in the LTP as well as that portfolio's $500,000 base. 

    To be clear on the strategy here:  The STP is a $100,000 portfolio whose job it is to protect the $500,000 LTP, which is generally 100% bullish.  The more exposure we have in the LTP, the more we hedge the STP but then, when the STP seems too bearish – we make some bullish short-term trades to generate some cash (and if they fail, it's probably because the hedges are starting to work).  

    We also sell puts to raise cash and already we have about $8,000 of gain there, not counting what we closed already and then there's another $19,000 to gain if the market keeps going up – that helps pay for the hedges as well.

    • Short Puts – All good.
    • DXD I – We're coming down to the wire on the July spread but DIS and IBM pumped the Dow up today, adding about 60 points against a strong general sell-off and I don't think we'll lose it into the weekend but, we can make sure we get $1 now by cashing the 100 July $31 calls ($10,000) and buying 100 of the Aug $31 ($1.35)/33 (0.50) bull call spreads for net 0.85 ($8,500) so we take $1,500 off the table and the only way we'll owe money to the short $32 callers is if our Aug spread is over $1 in the money.  
    • DXD II – The Jan spread is at the money and has a $20,000 potential on a 12.5% move, which would be a 6.25% drop in the Dow, so that's that hedge.  Currently it's just over $2,000 so call it an $18,000 hedge we paid net $4,000 for.  
    • IQ – What a crazy-assed stock this is!  Last month we VERY WISELY cashed in our Jan long calls and set up the 2020 spread, which put us short-term bearish and that paid off but it's a long way to expiration so we'll keep a close eye on it.  

    TSLA – We're going to collect 100% on this one – congrats to all who played.  Our entry was just net $2,410 and we'll get the full $14,000 tomorrow for an $11,590 (480%) gain in a month.  Who says it's bad to have cash on the sidelines?

    TZA I – The July $10s will expire worthless so the cost of insurance was $4,150 since May 9th.  The short Jan $15 puts I have faith in recovering a bit so we'll leave those and it's just 20 we sold for $4.80 so net $10.20 is not bad.   I would not call this protection, however, as we'll be lucky to break even.

    TZA II – This one is $12,000 in the money and shows net $11,500 so in very good shape and good as a new hedge.  Upside at $13 is another $36,000 so that's the hedge but $8.50 to $13 is $4.50 which is 53% so it would take an 18% dip in the Russell for this to pay off which means it's not fantastic protection but a more normal 10% dip would still be about $2.50 for $20,000 – so call that the amount of insurance we actually have.  

    So that's just $40,000 worth of protection so we'll either have to add a lot more hedges OR we can trim our LTP exposure – that's our next project!  

  23. Wheeeee again on oil!  Thank you Saudi Bullshit Minister!  $68 is the stopping line on the way up now. 

    That country is in BIG TROUBLE without that Aramco deal pumping $100Bn into their economy.  

    AVGO/Albo – 2 if you count me!  Didn't we just add them?  

    Oops, I forgot our SCO spread in the STP.

    SCO Sept $16 puts can be sold for $1 – not an exciting number for the STP so we'll wait a bit but net $15 is a good floor.  The Sept $15 ($3)/18 (1.50) bull call spread is a good play as $17.50 is $68.50 and we're expecting to be below that so, at the moment, the combo with a full cover is net $0.50 on the $3 spread or net $1 with just 1/2x cover so I think I'd go for that and sell 10 puts ($1,000) against 20 bull call spreads ($3,000) for net $2,000 on $6,000 worth of spreads that are pretty much in the money.  

    It's cheaper now but still a good trade set-up for shorting oil into the holiday weekend. 

  24. LOL:

    AVGO/Albo – Where were you, we sold some puts in the LTP on that silly dip last week:

    AVGO getting crushed as they pay about $3Bn too much for CA but AVGO was over $100Bn so a 20% drop is kind of silly.  I kind of want to pull the trigger right now, at $200 as BRCM was an old favorite of mine and still a good company but there were WAY better things to do with $19Bn in cash than buy CA.  Still, I don't think they are that dumb so let's keep an eye on the 2020 $180 puts, which can be sold for $20 so 5 of those short in the LTP gives us $10,000 for promising to buy 500 shares of AVGO at net $160!  

    Broadcom acquires CA Technologies for $18.9B in cash


    The AVGO thing is so stupid we have to act.  Let's sell 5 of the AGVO 2020 $180 puts for $19 in the LTP.

    They lost $20Bn in market cap because they are buying a company for $19Bn in cash?  Even if CA is worth just $10Bn – it's not THAT bad of a deal! 

    Since it is just me and that other guy who are bullish – I'm not looking to press that trade just yet!  

    One trade/Grass – I'd spread the risk between /SI (now $15.27) and /KCN9 ($121), both of which I love down here.  

  25. Phil – You are so broad based that I never considered just calling you just an analyst. :-)

    FWIW – I remember your trade now.   I also put on a BCS out to 2020.

  26. Phil – any thoughts on ABBV as they are selling off today apparently on a back of a twitter post mentioning upcoming bearish research?

  27. ~~

    Alterego – There's this.

    AbbVie drops after Citron tweets about short position  (90.15 -4.25)

    "@CitronResearch: $ABBV the next great drug short. TGT price $60 Gottlieb's comments for biosimilars and the removal of safe harbor is a DIRECT hit on Abbvie's abuse of Humira. Citron to release a series of reports detailing the Dirty Money. POTUS, AMZN, and now FDA on the case $60 in 12 months"

  28. AVGO/Albo – I think that's a good play, we're just being cautious.

    ABBV/Ego - I don't think they are cheap at $136Bn at $90 with just $5Bn in 3-year flat earnings.  That's 27x for a drug company and I don't see a growth driver that going to push them up 40% to $7Bn in earnings (20x).   

    And what Citron said! 

  29. IQ / Phil, I thought the last adjustment showed you at your best – grabbing the bull by the horns (literally). However, that meant the position changed from somewhat conservative;  20 contracts with 5 short term short) to a much larger aggressive position with 50 contracts and 50 mid term short. So a move from 25% short covers to a position with 100% short covers. 

    I know that was the position that made 'sense' but curious as to how far you would be prepared to press that strategy if IQ was to take off for some reason or the other (normally the other).

  30. Cartesian logic – I sold 2020 $2.5 puts on HMNY for $2.45 ergo HMNY is going bankrupt. 

  31. ABBV Sometimes one has to take a stand at a given point. I am looking at an aggressive armchair trade.

    Sell the Sept 90/90 straddle for 8.40 and buy the stock. Combined return 4.7% per month. Obviously the caller is at the knives age. After the above comments not a play for everyone. But opportunities are always combined with risk. The stock pays a div of 4.2% p.a. Lower protection is 81.60. Upper 98.40.

  32. Hi Yodi; curious to know whether you have adjusted or contemplating adjusting your WSM armchair trade – someone forgot to tell WSM that is was an in an armchair – not a rocket ship! I think the trade was buy stock around $50 and sell the Nov '18 47.5 / 52.5 strangle.

  33. Phil – How are your silver and gold trades doing on this spike down in the dollar?  Have you adjusted them at all?  What is your game plan from here on silver?

  34. Boss they are playing tricks – and its not even Friday. RUT is flying.  

  35. Winston WSM Rolled 7/10 to Nov 57.5/62.5 @ 2.81 4.58 combined monthly return 3.25%

  36. Sorry that I do not publish all my rolls and positions, as by tomorrow I have about 120 options coming due. So a bit of work for a retired man. However anyone having questions, please do not be shy to ask.

  37. ~~ CTL
    These comments are from Southeastern Asset Management's 2nd quarter summary.
     (Q2 Investment return; Q2 Fund contribution)

     "CenturyLink (+17%, +1.45%), the global fiber telecommunications company that is the Fund’s largest position, was the largest contributor in the quarter and YTD, although
     the stock still sells for less than half of our appraisal. The merger integration with Level 3 progressed, with synergies realized as planned, cost cutting initiatives at the legacy segments, and a focused reduction in capital spending. Earnings results confirmed management’s confidence in maintaining the substantial dividend. CenturyLink (CTL) is  viewed more as a traditional landline business akin to overleveraged, lower-quality peers Frontier Communications and Windstream Holdings, but CTL’s declining legacy landline business is becoming less relevant to the company’s total value, as the mix
     shifts to the growing Enterprise services fiber segment. "

     As I mentioned before, this well respected money manager has 14% of it's 8+ billion dollars in assets invested in CTL. An unusually large percentage, and quite a vote of confidence.

     FWIW – The stock at the current price is still yielding more than 11%.

  38. KHC rolled today to the Oct strangle 57.5/62.5 for 1.20/2.26 combined return 2.31 per month.

  39. Commodities down 9% since May. Copper down 15%. Bad for emerging countries. 

  40. WMB rolled today to the Nov. strangle 27/30 for .84/.77 combined return 2% per month.

  41. Oil blasting up yet again, I wonder what the new spin is.

    /RTY to the moon at 1,705 and climbing.

    Dollar pullback was very helpful:

    See, every hour we go in a new direction…

    IQ/Winston – Yes but since we were up almost 100% and sitting on a mountain of cash, it was a good move to make.  I think the plan was to DD on the longs if we had to and roll the short calls but, in the end (or the beginning) you have to make a value call – even with these silly momentum plays and that price was certainly due for a correction.

    HMNY/Winston – Well someone bet $2.45 to make a nickel that it will be BK – what a stupid way to tie up $2.45 – I can't even imagine what a person is thinking to make that play.   Meanwhile, we're still not filling our DD's at 0.10 yet.

    ABBV/Yodi – As noted above, I don't think they are that cheap. 

    Silver/Fel – Got about half back, still down $5K between them.  I'm pretty sure they'll be fine and I'm patient. My hopes are this will be like last July/Aug when Silver popped over $2 ($10,000 per contract) and Gold gained $100 ($3,220/contract).   That's why I have 12 gold and 2 silver but I intend to get back to 5 or 6 /YG when I'm even.

    120 options/Yodi – Wow!

    CTL/Albo – Very nice!  You got your $20 so well played. 

    Copper/Den – I think a lot of this depression in prices is being caused by Chinese companies cashing in their copper collateral as money tightens up.  There's really not much bite to tariffs so far, this is mostly speculation that a major trade war will trigger a global slowdown.

  42. Tilray guy on CNBC talking about the pot Biz.  Right in line with what we've been saying that 90% of pot consumed will be edibles and pills, only 10% smoked.  That's right in-line with our investing thesis at PSWI as we're partnering with guys who process pot into edibles for half of California and will be expanding into other states.  

    Had to short /RTY again at 1,705 – just too much fun not to!

  43. HMNY/Phil- another blogger came out to talk about HMNY, this time seems like one of the top ranking from

  44. ABBV 10/6/17 89.72   4/5/18 90.00   today 90.00.  81.60 they hit  9/7/17 so I think we could have a good chance to see it through. But as usual don’t bet the farm.

  45. HMNY/Dave – Yes, that's certainly the prevailing opinion.

    Well, never going to get the LTP done today but I'll try to finish by early tomorrow.

    Trump `not thrilled' with Fed's path to rising interest rates: CNBC

    |By:, SA News Editor 

    President Trump says he doesn't approve of the Federal Reserve's pace of hiking key interest rates because the increases could interfere with the economic recovery, CNBC reports.

    The Fed's FOMC raised rates twice this year and signal the likelihood of two more by the end of 2018.

    “I don’t like all of this work that we’re putting into the economy and then I see rates going up,” he said.

    He stopped short of directly telling the Fed what to do, though. "At the same time I’m letting them do what they feel is best,” he told Joe Kernan in the interview.

    After his comments, markets reacted. The dollar retreated from a one-year high. U.S. dollar index fell 0.14 to 94.95 this afternoon, after touching 95.65 this morning.

    10-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 2.84%; earlier it had reached 2.90%.

    • The president earlier signaled his displeasure with the Fed's rate hike cycle. Under more pressure than about any asset class from higher U.S. rates have been emerging market equities, bonds, and currencies.
    • Getting a noticeable bump in the immediate aftermath of his comments were the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM -1.1%) and the iShares USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB). Both have given back some of those moves since.
    • Japan's exports to the United States dipped 0.9%, fell for the first time in 17 months on waning shipments of cars and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, two of Japan's most important export products.
    • Japanese business sentiment slipped in July, reflecting companies' fears about an intensifying trade dispute between the United States and China.
    • Japanese imports from the United States fell 2.1% resulting in the trade surplus of $5.24B.
    • The Chinese unit is "dropping like a rock," says the president, speaking to CNBC. "Our currency is going up, and I have to tell you it puts us at a disadvantage."
    • The PBOC overnight set its daily reference rate for the yuan to weaker than the 6.7 to the dollar level, suggesting Beijing is comfortable with the recent decline.

    Speaking of pot investments:

    • NewBridge Global Ventures (OTCQB:NBGV +282.4%announced that the Company has entered into definitive agreements to acquire all of the issued and outstanding ownership interests of six privately-held companies through the issuance of 31M shares of common stock.
    • NewBridge Global Ventures will acquire 100% of the six Companies, which focus on genetics, cultivation, extraction, and distribution.
    • “We believe this step has great potential to improve the quality of life for our communities and also insulate our companies from downward pricing pressure of the underlying commodity.” said Mark Mersman, CEO of NewBridge.

    But not focused on PROCESSING!  

  46. Phil you indicated the cannabis deal was time sensitive but Greg says paperwork still not available?

  47. TRump probably doesn't like rates going up because of all the debt he carries… 

  48. Sold some HL Jan 3 puts.

  49. Candidate Clown King had a different view on interest rates-

    "The Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump, who has previously accused the Federal Reserve of keeping interest rates low to help Barack Obama, said on Monday that the US central bank had created a “false economy” and that interest rates should change."

    But I guess when you're considering handing over US citizens to the Russians for interrogation, a blatant position flip should be the least of our concerns…

  50. SKX going much lower after hours, SA saying they lowered guidance

  51. Cannabis/Tangled – We have to fill the $1M and then get the paperwork done (should be end of month) and then get the funding done (Aug 15th) and, frankly, to execute a $1M deal, 30 days is pretty fast! 

    Not a great close and still anemic volume (50M on SPY).

    • Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) officially holds a stake of 13.8% in Keurig Dr Pepper (NYSE:KDP), according to a new SEC filing.
    • Bloomberg reports that Mondelez in the largest shareholder in the new beverage company with the 191,631,181 shares sitting in its back pocket.
    • SEC Form 13D
    • Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) shares are up 0.4% aftermarket on Q4 results that beat EPS and revenue estimates with an 18% Y/Y growth in revenue. Guidance will come on the earnings call.
    • Productivity and Business Processes revenue was $9.7B (+10% Y/Y in constant currency). Office 365 commercial products and cloud services revenue increased 8% and commercial revenue grew 35%. Office consumer products and cloud services were +6% with subscribers up 31.4M. LinkedIn rose 34% and had a 41% sessions growth.
    • Intelligent Cloud revenue was $9.6B (+20%). Server products and cloud services revenue increased 24%. Azure revenue grew 85%.  
    • More Personal Computing revenue was $10.8B (+16%). Windows commercial products and services revenue grew 19%. Gaming revenue increased 38% with Xbox software and services growth of 35%. Search ad revenue excluding TAC increased 16%. Surface revenue increased 11%. 
    • Earnings call is scheduled for 5:30 PM Eastern with a webcast available here
    • Press release.  
    • Previously: Microsoft beats by $0.05, beats on revenue (July 19)
    • E*Trade Financial  (NASDAQ:ETFC +0.3% in after-hours trading after Q2 EPS and revenue beat consensus estimates and includes its recent acquisition of Trust Company of America.
    • CEO Karl Roessner credits "robust customer trading, steady net buying, and record margin balances" for helping boost results.
    • Q2 total net revenue of $710M topped $710M in Q1 and $577M a year ago.
    • Adjusted operating margin of 46% compares with 44% in Q1 and 38% Y/Y.
    • Net interest margin of 302 basis points vs. 297 bps in Q1 and 274 bps Y/Y.
    • Net new brokerage accounts of 188,000; excluding TCA  acquisition, that figure would be 40,000.
    • Net new brokerage assets of $21.1B; without the TCA purchase, that number would be $2.5B.
    • The quarter had 64 trading days compared with 61 in Q1 and 63 in the year-ago period.
    • Common equity Tier 1 capital ratio slipped to 34.3% from 35.0% in Q1 and 35.0% a year ago.
    • Source: Press Release
    • Previously: E*TRADE Financial beats by $0.07, beats on revenue (July 19)
    • Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRGQ2 results ($M): Total revenue: 909.3 (+7.3%); Instruments & accessories: 476.1 (3.4%); Systems: 277.4 (+18.3%); Services: 155.8 (+2.0%).
    • Net Income:; 255.3 (-11.2%); non-GAAP net income: 327.4 (+13.9%); EPS: 2.15 (-11.9%); non-GAAP EPS: 2.76 (+13.1%).
    • da Vinci system shipments: 220 (+32.5%).
    • Consensus view was EPS of $2.50 on revenue of $877.6M.
    • Shares are up 4% after hours.
    • Nike (NYSE:NKE) won a lawsuit against two shipping companies that imported knockoffs from China into the U.S., according to Bloomberg
    • The judge in the case is due to award damages to Nike from City Ocean Logistics Co. and City Ocean International on a later date.
    Glad we started small!  Skechers in freefall after weak guidance
    • Skechers (NYSE:SKX): Q2 EPS of $0.29 misses by $0.12.
    • Revenue of $1.13B (+9.7% Y/Y) in-line.
    • Shares -25.35%.
    • Press Release
    • Skechers (NYSE:SKX) craters after issuing downside guidance. The retailers expects Q3 revenue of $1.20B to $1.225B vs. $1.26B and Q3 EPS of $0.50 to $0.55 vs. $0.68 consensus.
    • Shares are down 22.44% in initial AH trades.

  52. NQ hit 7405 then at 9:15 everything took a dump.

  53. Yeah, who broke the market?

  54. After days of statements, Senate takes steps against Russia

  55. McConnell withdraws Trump judicial pick minutes before vote

  56. Foreshadowing a Democratic wave

  57. Canadian marijuana company Tilray has first US pot IPO

  58. Good Morning

    GE beat estimates by a penny and revenue was higher than analyst's expectations.

  59. Good morning!  

    Missed another shot at shorting $68.50, now $68 but I think we'll get another chance.  Oil ran up to $69 overnight before falling a quick $1.

    And the markets in general are flying up and down on more trade nonsense:

    • President Trump is willing to up the ante in the trade war with Beijing and could slap tariffs on every Chinese good imported to the U.S.
    • "I'm ready to go to 500," he told CNBC, referencing the $505.5B of American imports from China in 2017, compared to the $129.9B the U.S. exported to the country last year.
    • Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan slid overnight to its lowest in more than a year, stoking worries Beijing's currency management could be the next flash point in a trade dispute with the U.S.
    • It's "too early” to say whether the Trump administration will move ahead with proposed tariffs of as much as 25% on imported vehicles and auto parts, according to Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.
    • The comments came at the start of several Commerce Department hearings, which will investigate whether the Trump administration can use a 1962 national-security law to impose duties on foreign-sourced cars and parts.

    Friday's economic calendar

    • Stocks snapped their five-session winning streak after several quarterly earnings reports disappointed and trade jitters resurfaced on worries that the European Union could slap retaliatory tariffs on goods imported from the U.S.
    • Nine of the 11 S&P sectors fell, with financials (-1.4%) pacing the retreat followed by telecom services (-1.1%), while real estate (+1%) and utilities (+0.9%) were the day's only winners.
    • Pres. Trump criticized the Fed in a CNBC interview, saying he's "not thrilled" about interest rate hikes, which helped raise U.S. Treasury prices, pushing the benchmark 10-year yield 3 bps lower to 2.85% and weighing on bank shares.
    • Trump also commented on the strengthening dollar, saying it puts the U.S. at a disadvantage; the U.S. Dollar Index tumbled in a knee-jerk response but recouped its losses and closed 0.2% higher at 95.00.
    • U.S. WTI crude oil closed up 1% to settle at $69.46/bbl, rebounding from an earlier low of $67.80.
    • Despite aggressive monetary easing by the Bank of Japan for more than five years, domestic prices have become sluggish again in recent months.
    • The trend continued into June, with the core consumer price index, excluding fresh food prices because of their volatility, rising only 0.8% from a year earlier, from a 0.7% rise in May.
    • That's well short of the 2% target set by the Bank of Japan.
    • The White House has invited Vladimir Putin to the U.S. for another summit in the fall, coming on the heels of a highly controversial meeting between President Trump and the Russian leader earlier this week in Helsinki.
    • The last official American visit by a Russian president was in June 2010, when Dmitri Medvedev, now Russian prime minister, visited the United States.
    • Sanctions bite… Gross domestic product in North Korea last year contracted 3.5% from the previous year, marking the biggest contraction since a 6.5% drop in 1997 when the isolated nation was hit by a devastating famine.
    • The Seoul-based Bank of Korea, which is considered the most authoritative source for economic data on its neighbor, also said that the tighter sanctions imposed in 2017 will only show their full impact this year.

    Judge tosses NYC's climate change lawsuit against five big oil companies

    • A U.S. district judge dismisses a lawsuit by New York City seeking to hold five of the world's biggest oil companies liable for their role in contributing to climate change.
    • Echoing a ruling last month that tossed out two similar California cases, the judge said problems associated with climate change should be tackled by Congress and the executive branch.
    • NYC said the five companies - BP, Chevron (NYSE:CVX), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.ARDS.B) – should compensate the city for the cost of mitigating the effects of global warming.
    • The judge agreed with the argument made by the companies that the case should be dismissed because the city's claims arise under federal common law, which displace the city's state law claims.

    Tesla roundup: Batteries, Model 3 rumors

    • Unable to determine how much of the cobalt used in batteries it makes for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) comes from Cuba, a country subject to U.S. sanctions, Panasonic (OTCPK:PCRFY) has suspended relations with its supplier.
    • Sources said the Canadian firm was Sherritt International (OTCPK:SHERF).
    • Responding to earlier rumors, Tesla also confirmed that refunds of bookings for its Model 3 were not outpacing reservations.
    • General Electric (NYSE:GE): Q2 EPS of $0.19 beats by $0.01.
    • Revenue of $30.1B (+3.5% Y/Y) beats by $790M.
    • Shares +0.8% PM.
    • Press Release

    Skechers skid impacts Deckers and Crocs

    • Crocs (NASDAQ:CROX) and Deckers Outdoor (NASDAQ:DECK) are both down about 1.5% in AH trading following weak guidance from Skechers alongside the company's Q2 report.
    • Skechers saw profit drop 24% Y/Y in Q2 as sales growth couldn't keep up with cost pressures. Shares of Skechers (NYSE:SKX) are now down 25.23% AH and could threaten the 52-week low of $23.90 if the selling pressure persists tomorrow. So far, there aren't any Wall Street analysts out with strong defenses on SKX, although that could change by morning.
    • Previously: Skechers in freefall after weak guidance (July 19)



  60. Phil// What is you recommendation for the recent SKX trade?