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Trade War Thursday – Trump Taxes $200Bn In Chinese Goods 25% – Americans Pay Him $50Bn

Image result for trump tariff cost consumersMore tariffs?

The Trump administration said that it is considering increasing the proposed tariff on $200 billion in Chinese imports to 25% from 10% – indicating there is now no possibility that there won't be tariffs at all. President Trump has asked U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to hike the duties, which could be implemented as early as next month and are implimented as a TAX paid by the US Consumers of Chinese goods – it doesn't cost China a think yet the MSM has allowed the word tariff to go unexplained while it's the American people who pay the price and the Top 1% who reap the benefits as those tariff taxes go to pay for more tax cuts for Trump's Billionaire Buddies.

Not only are tariffs an unfair and possibly illegal tax on the American people but they also increase the costs of goods and services by removing competition from the local market.  Not only is Trump placing a $50Bn stealth tax on American Consumers and causing runaway inflation by making things more expensive but China will retailiate with their own $50Bn tax on American goods and who does $50Bn matter more to – US or Chinese Consumers?  So Chinese consumers will stop buying American goods altogether while US consumers will simply pay $50Bn more and keep buying the same stuff.  China said this morning:

“China has made full preparation for the U.S. threats to escalate the trade war, and will have to retaliate to defend national pride and the people’s interests.” 

The reason most Americans don't realize that tariffs are actually just a tax they are forced to pay or that they are one of the worst economic ideas in history is that we haven't had a tariff war since 1930 – when one started the Great Depression.  After that, people who actually went to Business School had no doubts at all that tariffs were a TERRIBLE idea – and they have been used sparingly ever since.  Until now.

Image result for trump tariff cost consumers

You would think an 80% drop in the stock market would be lesson that wouldn't be forgotten yet here we are, marching right down the road to disaster once again led by a President who makes the same "chicken in every pot" promises that Hoover used to make while actually passing policies that destroy working class Americans and funnel their money to the Top 1%.  What the poor don't understand is how great it is for the rich when the economy collapses – though they may suffer some damage, the fact that they have any money left at all allows them to buy homes and businesses for 10 cents on the Dollar – something we just saw happen during the 2008 crash, which pushed US Wealth Inequality past even the levels we saw in 1929, before the Great Gollapse.  

Image result for smoot hawley tariffAs you can see from the early day's of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, these little market gyrations are nothing so far.  The real damage accumulates quarter over quarter and takes years to play out.  This gives the wealthy all the time in the World to cash in their equities while retirement accounts and pension plans (aka "dumb money") gets destroyed and then they rush in with their checkbooks to prey on impoverished Americans.  2008 was just a test run for what Trump is about to unleash on our citizens.

The other great thing about Tariffs is that they can be targeted to give advantages to your friends and pain to your enemies as certain companies are exempt while others suffer.  For instance, Lakshmi Mittal of ArcelorMittal (MT), the world's biggest steel maker is THRILLED with Trump's tariffs because they have driven up the price of steel and MT's profits rose to $1.9Bn in the 2nd quarter – up 41% from last year.  Meanwhile, the price of US autos is expected to increase by $5,000 per car on higher steel prices and other auto-related tariffs – that's how the TAX on the US consumers transfers money from the consumers right into the pockets of the Top 1% – in Europe!

This great turn of events for MT comes just 5 months after Laski Mittal bought a $25M apartment at the Trump International in NYC.  US Steel (X) is also a major contributor to Trump and the GOP and Trump crows all the time about how well he is taking care of his buddy, CEO Dave Burritt but, so far, none of the jobs or factory openings they promised have actually happened – just more money for Trump and his buddies.  Dave has said that  Trump's tariffs are "vital to the interests of the United States" – keep that in mind when you pay $5,000 more for your next car…

Of course, steel company executives aren't the only people buying Trump properties to curry the President's favor.  Buyers connected to Russia or former Soviet republics made 86 all-cash purchases — totaling nearly $109 million — at 10 Trump-branded properties in South Florida and New York City, according to a new analysis shared by McClatchy. Many of them made purchases using shell companies designed to obscure their identities. 

The size and scope of these cash purchases are deeply troubling as they can often signal money laundering activity," said Rep. Adam Schiff of California, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee and a former federal prosecutor. "There have long been credible allegations of money laundering by the Trump Organization which, if true, would pose a real threat to the United States in the event that Russia were able to leverage evidence of illicit financial transactions against the president."

Special Counsel Robert Mueller has spent more than a year investigating whether Trump's campaign colluded with Russia to interfere in the 2016 presidential election, a widening probe that appears to include questions about his family business, the Trump Organization. "This is all about money laundering," former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon is quoted as saying about the Mueller inquiry in the book, Fire and Fury.

The all-cash buyers include Alexey Ustaev, founder of a private bank based in St. Petersburg, Russia; Igor Zorin, a government official who runs a state-owned broadcasting company; the wife of hockey player Viacheslav Fetisov; pop star Igor Nikolaev; Roman Sinyavsky, a luxury real estate broker who was one of the first to sell units at a Trump's South Florida building and Evgeny Bachurin, who Russian President Vladimir Putin fired as head of Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency before becoming a donor to a political action committee supporting Trump, according to American Bridge.  Other news reports have looked at Russian buyers of Trump Organization properties but less attention has been paid to the all-cash purchases.

"We've long suspected that Donald Trump's businesses were a front for money laundering and our research suggests it could be true," said Harrell Kirstein, communicators director for the Trump War Room at American Bridge. "The millions of dollars in previously unreported, all-cash real estate deals we discovered raise troubling questions about who is funding his businesses, why, and what they're getting in return."

Image result for trump money launderingForget the politics and whether or not Trump is a corrupt Putin Puppet of a President, this recent scandal is almost a non-issue compared to the overall collusion and obstruction of justice cases that are swirling around the President and that means that, no matter who you support, whether it's the United States of America and the Constitution or Donald Trump and the GOP, there is going to be MASSIVE political turmoil this fall and that is NOT likely to be good for the markets.

The Fed WILL raise rates, that's also not a positive for the markets and there IS a Trade War starting and not even 1% of us are going to win that one – also bad for the markets (80% bad in 1930 and 1931).

These are reasons to be very cautious with our investing and not to mindlessly run in and buy dips – that's the mistake many people made in 2008 as the market corrected 20% – and then another 20% – and then another 20%.  As the great Yogi said "It ain't over until it's over."

 


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  1. Good morning!  

    This is worth considering:  If your win rate is 50%, over the course of 800 trades you WILL have many times where you lose 5 times in row and DOZENS of times when you lose 3-4 times in a row.  Statistics are a real bitch!

    That's why it's better to wait for times when you are more likely to be 2/3 right rather than guessing and, of course, cash management is a MUST – as it stops the losing from wiping you out.  That's the real house advantage in Vegas – very few people stop playing after winning 5 times in a row but a lot of people walk away (or get wiped out) by 5 or more consecutive losses so they leave the table at the worst possible time – after knocking down a statistical anomaly that simply went against them!  

    EXPECT TO LOSE and you will win a lot more often!  


  2. Good morning,

    AAPL/Phil- the STP calendar you did, so we won't be even looking to roll the Jan till much closer expiry right?




  3. Good Morning.


  4. StJohn/Disney – That's an amazing chart. My late uncle-in-law was what they call a "salary president" for several SamSung divisions in the very early years, and I thought he had a lot of moving parts to watch. By the way, did you know Samsung started from a guy selling dried fish out of a warehouse in Daegu, expanded to sugar (later spun off as Hwasung, under my uncle's hand), before becoming the huge conglomerate. The original building is still there, a museum.


  5. See what happens when you fail the strong bounce lines!   Take those QQQs puts off the table in the STP – we got lucky at $1.20!  

    ugust 1st, 2018 at 12:15 pm | (Unlocked) | Permalink

    Things are topping out already, watch those bounce lines for shorting opportunities!  

    August 1st, 2018 at 3:04 pm | (Unlocked) | Permalink

    Indexes not at all impressive considering AAPL is adding 85 Dow points and probably 8 points to /ESand 0.75% to the Nasdaq (15% of 5% – easy math) 


  6. Actually it was $1.20 on the weeklies! 


  7. TEVA down but it might be a buying opportunity:

    For the full year, it raised its forecast for adjusted EPS to $2.55-$2.80 from $2.40-$2.65 estimated last quarter. It maintained its outlook for revenue of $18.5-$19 billion.

    3-day rule in effect for me, but tempted to add soon.


  8. Buying some QQQ weekly calls


  9. Anyone taking a long on /RB at this level for weekend run up? I figure good for a couple of cents. EIA wasn’t that bad


  10. more HBI pain… dangit!!!!


  11. Sold QQQ weeklies


  12. So is Apple officially the first Trillion $ company?


  13. APPL should buy IBM or something.  Get Watson and put IBM shareholders out of their misery.


  14. IBM down to 142 !! TLSA Phil worth an other high flying play?

    IP good for an other armchair trade!


  15. Phil//  What are you thoughts on PZZA given the recent turmoil going with the company and the founder?  Is it worth an investment and if so any good trade ideas?

    Thanks.


  16. @yodi – what do u mean by "armchair trade"?


  17. Good Morning, All!

    The webinar replay is now available!

    https://youtu.be/SKK8P3NQHKs


  18. Somavision.

    Trust you new? My armchair trades are explained in the Members corner. Lots or interesting reading.


  19. @yodi – thx! i'm a newbie. will check it out.


  20. Yodi – Thanks for your efforts!  :)


  21. @Phil – I'm not getting the member alerts in the morning. have checked my junk mail.


  22. Dollar tested 95 again but pulling back at BOE tighens 0.25 despite gloomy economic outlook.

    Factory orders rise 0.7% in July, misses forecast

    • Initial Jobless Claims +1K at 218K vs. 218K consensus, 217K prior (unrevised).
    • Continuous Claims: -23K to 1.724M vs. 1.747M (revised).

    • Stocks open lower as U.S.-China trade concerns weighing on equity markets around the globe; Dow -0.5%, S&P -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.2%.
    • Pres. Trump wants to hike proposed tariffs on $200B worth of Chinese goods to 25% from 10%, citing China's refusal to meet U.S. trade demands, and Beijing has responded with threats of retaliation.
    • Major European markets trade lower across the board, with Germany's DAX -1.7%, U.K.'s FTSE -1.1% and France's CAC -0.8%; in Asia, Japan's Nikkei finished -1% and China's Shanghai Composite closed -2%.
    • In earnings news, Tesla +10.2% after above-consensus revenues and a reaffirmed outlook overshadowed disappointing earnings, and CEO Elon Musk said "our goal is to be profitable and cash-flow positive for every quarter going forward."
    • Most sectors are in the red, with materials (-1.6%) and energy (-1.2%) the worst performers with financials (-0.9%) and industrials (-0.9%) are also showing relative weakness.
    • U.S. WTI crude oil -0.5% at $67.32/bbl.
    • Still ahead: factory orders, EIA natural gas inventory

    Tesla higher after turning heads on Wall Street

    • Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLAopens up 8.45% after posting a better quarter than expected by many analysts and investors. The company's cash burn wasn't as bad as some of the most dire forecasts, while Elon Musk's apology tour to analysts is being well-received.
    • RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Spak: "2Q18 results better than expected and we are more comfortable with 2H18 profitability/cash flow. Further, there seems to be more ammo for bulls than bears in commentary. Given stock's propensity to sentiment/momentum, we could see a rally, but remain Sector Perform rated believing a lot priced in."
    • Goldman Sachs (almost a perma-bear on Tesla): "This was a positive quarter. Automotive gross margins, cash burn, and ending cash balance were better than expected. In addition, the company may have turned the corner on its historical operational mis-execution… We see the second quarter as a positive step for Tesla as a manufacturing organization, but a step that requires continued forward momentum in cost control, operating efficiency, and ultimately positive cash flow."
    • Oppenheimer (upgrades to Outperform, $385 PT): "While we have been cautious on Model 3 ramp, we believe GM performance on Model 3 will carry the stock over the next 12+ months. With higher volumes and slower spending, we believe TSLA has reached a critical inflection point in its development. We expect bearish arguments now to focus on limited potential for Model 3 volume at higher price levels. We note that despite some recent price pressure, Model S and X ASPs have remained at relatively elevated levels. We would not be surprised to see a similar scenario play out for Model 3."
    • Consumer Edge Research: "Even at $35K to $40K we think this vehicle [Model 3] is profitable, but they are far clear of that, the average selling price we think will be closer to $50K as we look to Q3 and Q4."
    • Needham (Underperform) concedes the quarter was better-than-anticipated on a sales and free cash flow view, but stays cautious due to the "astronomical" valuation. Bearish-leaning Bank of America Merrill Lynch takes it price target to $200 from $180 in a very minor bit of capitulation.
    • Sources: CNBC, Bloomberg, Reuters Morning Call
    • Previously: Tesla reaffirms profitability, production targets (Aug. 1)
    • Previously: Tesla conference call live updates (Aug. 1)
    • Boeing (NYSE:BA) has pushed back the flight schedule of its Starliner capsule by several months to a range of "late 2018 or early 2019," in line with a GAO report that previously estimated the schedule would be delayed.
    • The capsule, being built to fly U.S. astronauts to the International Space Station, suffered a failure during a test in June.
    • NASA gave Boeing a $4.B contract in 2014 to build three spacecraft while SpaceX won a $2.6B contract to develop a crew version of its Dragon vehicle, but both programs have been steadily delayed.
    • Since the end of the Space Shuttle program in 2011, astronauts have flown aboard Russian Soyuz – at a cost to NASA of more than $70M per seat.

    Royal Caribbean expects record earnings this year

    • Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL) reports net yields were up 2.8% on a constant currency basis in Q2.
    • Management says the compan'y profit beat was driven by better than expected revenue from the global brands, better performance from the joint ventures and lower than expected expenses which were driven by timing.
    • Looking ahead, RCL sees Q3 EPS of $3.90 to $3.95 and full-year EPS $8.70 to $8.90. The comparisons to the current analysts consensus marks may not be appropriate due to external factors included.
    • CFO update: "2018 is shaping up to be another year of record earnings, which is being driven by a strong demand environment and effective cost and capital management. While it is too early to guide on 2019, it is very encouraging to see these positive trends further supporting a strong book of business for next year."
    • Shares of Royal Caribbean are up 0.64% in premarket trading to $110.69.

    Shorting /NQ on the cross below 7,300, of course.  

    /RB/Japar – Dollar near 95 hopefully will be rejected so yes, I like the long over $2.045 with tight stops below for the weekend pump (still early in the cycle so not much pressure).

    HBI/Jabob – We just bought it for the Hedge Fund and added more LB.

    • Sell 10 HBI 2020 $18 puts for $2.80 ($2,800)
    • Buy 15 HBI 2020 $15 calls for $4.20 ($6,300)
    • Sell 15 HBI 2020 $23 calls for $1 ($1,500) 

    That's net $2,000 on the $7,500 spread so $5,500 (275%) upside if HBI can get back to $23 in two years.  With 15 longs, as it recovers, we can sell 5 short-term calls for income like the Oct (78 days out of 533) $20s for $1 (now 0.30), which is the price of the $18s, so a move to $20 would do it.  That would return $500 maybe 6 times for $3,000 – a nice bonus while you wait.

    AAPL/Ult – Yep, $206 should do it, happy $1,000,000,000,000!  

    IBM/That – Only $130Bn – that's how much AAPL gained this month (so far).

    TSLA/Yodi – I hope they go higher so we can short again.  Aside from pulling their lease revenue forward and counting it as cash on the books, they also are now counting $900M worth of deposits as cash – which is total BS because it's a loan from the buyer, not a donation!   I like IP too.  

    PZZA/Rookie – I think they go a bit lower, these things don't resolve quickly.  Look at WYNN.  Around $37.50 I'd be more excited to buy.

    The Papa John's sign has been removed from Cardinal Stadium …

    Papa John's dumped by sports teams, schools over Schnatter …

    Alerts/Soma – The PSW Report is just the morning Report at the top of this page.  Alerts are sent out rarely and are always sent from chat so, if you are a Premium Member – you see them here before anyone else.  On the top right of this page it should say "somavision's account" and, if you click that link, you can make sure the alerts are checked off and you have the right info for them to be sent to.  If still a problem, greg at philstockworld dot com will be happy to help.  

    Shorting /NQ again at 7,315 but stop over 7,317.50.  Watching /RTY 1,675, /YM 25,200 and /ES 2,812.50 for signs of trouble.  


  23. Trillion Dollars Baby!  


  24. Phil were you going to look at WYNN this morning?


  25. Phil / Apple

    1 Trillion I feel that's the magic number that makes people think its time to sell and breaks NQ. Hopefully. Apple seems to be fairly priced at this point.

    Pat


  26. Phil, thanks for this format "Shorting /NQ again at 7,315 but stop over 7,317.50." 

    It really helps when you suggest specific stop levels


  27. Everything looks great except the NYSE Composite but hey, APPLE!

    Kind of like SQUIRELL! to a dog


  28. Phil I still don't get it how can TSLA go up 10% in a day and a stock like F has a value of 9$. Does not make sense for me.


  29. F 6% dividend too… I just ignore Tesla. Can't buy it, can't short it, gonna be fireworks someday but I'll just leave it alone.


  30. Phil.. Your thoughts on CELG for a BCS. They have forecasted $8+ per share in earnings.  The sell off from their acquisition spree appears to have stabilized.  The stock was at $147, reached $74 and is nostarting to move. Lot of phase 3 trials in 1q2019.  If they meet $8 even with no new products it is trading at a trailing PE of 11.  If their phase 3 trials work, this will rocket up… the company’s 2021 targets are $12 eps.  Looks like the risk reward appears decent here.  


  31. Olde vix(xy) was was higher in June than now.  I guess now that earnings are out nothing to fear.  Wonder what dot.com era used for indicators.


  32. Is the Nasdaq going to stop going up?????? Lol


  33. Wow, all green again – popping higher 

    WYNN/Tangled – Only if you reminded me…  All the casinos are having trouble as consumers are squeezed and can't afford them and the high-end gamblers aren't splurging either with all the uncertainty but this too shall pass – eventually.   I don't like WYNN at $150 ($16.5Bn) because they only made $400M (taking away a massive tax windfall they had last year) so the p/e is about 40, not the 20 people think it is.  Then with all the shenanigans with the WYNN's – I'd stay away, ESPECIALLY when you can buy MGM, who have 60% more revenues ($10Bn) and about $1Bn in normalized profits and you can buy them for $15Bn at $28.   MGM has $3Bn more debt ($12Bn) than WYNN but MGM more income to pay it with.  

    I think the whole sector will sell off a bit more but MGM worth watching at $28 as you can already sell the 2020 $28 puts for $4 to net in for $24.

    AAPL/Pat – Well you'd think so.  I have 10 /NQ shorts at the 7,350 line now so I HOPE AAPL pulls back a bit from the $1Tn line.  

    Stops/Alter – Well you can't afford conviction on that one though, as noted above, I've got a bit of conviction now at 7,350 but it's STILL going higher so hard to say where it stops.  But that's the point, take a 2.5 loss at 7,315 and another at 7,330 and another at 7,350 and you're down 7.5 x 20 ($150/contract) but it only takes one 50-point drop to make you $1,000 per contract when you finally get it right.  

    Image result for loser loser animated gif

    Squirrel/Mkucs – The masses are easy to distract.

    Image result for squirrel up animated gif

    Sense/Yodi – You are playing in the wrong market if you are looking for sense.  TSLA lose $1Bn for the quarter (much more without accounting shenanigans) but F MADE $2Bn so clearly F should sell off with a $39Bn market cap while TSLA rises with a $57Bn market cap.  And, while you are believing that – I can also tell you there was NO COLLUSION!

    TSLA/Mkucs – Very stay away unless they pop $360, where I'd love to short them again.    

    CELG/Learner – They are cheap for CELG at $90 but not cheap for a large-cap Biotech as that's $66Bn with $3Bn in earnings though forward estimates are through the roof for some reason:

    Year End 31st Dec 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 TTM 2018E 2019E CAGR / Avg
    Revenue $m 5,507 6,494 7,670 9,256 11,229 13,003 14,122 15,125 16,878 +18.7%
    Operating Profit $m 1,746 1,809 2,515 2,292 2,817 4,662 3,981     +21.7%
    Net Profit $m 1,456 1,450 2,000 1,602 1,999 2,940 2,798 6,484 7,595 +15.1%
    EPS Reported $ 1.65 1.68 2.39 1.94 2.49 5.20 5.28     +25.8%
    EPS Normalised $ 1.82 1.86 2.45 2.19 2.90 4.01 4.48 8.75 10.6 +17.1%
    EPS Growth % +41.8 +2.2 +31.7 -10.3 +31.9 +38.5 -3.4 +118.2 +20.6  
    PE Ratio x           22.5 20.1 10.3 8.55  
    PEG x           0.19 0.17 0.50 0.42
    Profitability

    OMG!  

    U.S. healthcare spending nearing 20% of GDP

    Oops, I see it..  They are guiding up to $8.75/share for 2018 and have reduced the share count to 735M (after a $3.5Bn buyback) = $6.4Bn.   They are also sitting on $12Bn in cash though $16Bn in debts too – but very serviceable.  

    A lot of eggs in the REVLIMID basket and that's why CELG is so cheap, both MYL and Dr Reddy are both in court trying to force generic versions through and word is that CELG does not have a good pipeline.  Not only that but REVLIMID costs cancer patients $20,000 a month and is becoming a political football as the drug companies don't want to pay for it and Medicare is demanding steep discounts and even Trump is complaining about this one so the FTC is likely to force CELG to step aside and let the generic boys do their work.

    Of course, these fears are often overblown but CELG is more likely to get bad news than good news in the future.  If I were going to gamble to the upside, I'd go with 20 2020 $100 ($10)/$120 ($4.50) bull call spreads for $5.50 ($11,000) and sell 5 (1/4) Sept (50 days) $90 calls for $3.80 ($1,900) as you have 10 sales ahead of you so very likely to get your $11,000 back and then you can see how it plays out. 

    7,375 on /NQ!  Wow!!! 

    Will it stop/Soma – Not looking like it but I think this should be it and, because AAPL is up $40 from $160 (25%) at $200 and an 20% (weak) overshoot of that run is $8 to $2.08 and we're at $1Tn, I think we'll get at least a weak retrace, which is a $16 drop back to $192 on AAPL which is 7.7% so 1.5% of the Nas from 7,375 is 110 points so 7,265 is my target for a pullback by Tuesday, which would be good for $2,000 per contract.  


  34. Learner/CELG

    Back on 7/25 this trade was implemented in the STP. FYI

    Sell 5 CELG 2020 $85 puts for $9.20 ($4,600) 

    Buy 10 CELG Jan (2019) $90 calls for $6 ($6,000) 

    Sell 10 CELG Jan (2019) $100 calls for $2.70 ($2,700)


  35. CELG/DC – Thanks, I forgot.  I thought they'd improve into earnings and they did a bit but not a long-term play for me, due to the generic issues but, for now, they do make a lot of money per $90 share.

    Speaking of $90 shares, my kids now have 10,000 shares of HMNY (now 0.13) which is 2.5M of the old shares, which were $30 not too long ago.  Would be funny if it ever goes back up!  Paid around $10K so $1/share is what we're in for.  As noted yesterday, it seems to me that they were not lying about their $300M line of credit but, based on their actions, it's a monthly draw-down, which is why they needed an emergency loan on Friday (27th) and were able to pay it back on Weds (1st) and then it makes sense why someone would lend them money – because they were able to show them that they had the money coming in that quickly.

    So, assuming that and let's assume $25M a month with 3M customers paying $10/month is another $30M so $55M a month is burning but they ran out of money on Thursday and July only had 4 weekends in it so I'd say they are spending $15M a week.  (3M people see 2 movies a month – makes sense).  

    Now they are raising fees on 8/15 by $5, presumably because that will bring in $15M more a month and will cover the $7.5M before they need to borrow again as Aug has 5 Fridays – not to mention a holiday weekend.  

    So we can assume that they may get that burn under control and then it's an issue of how they deal with the remaining $15M/month burn but it's really not so bad and let's say someone comes in with $500M for 90% of the company and we get to 5M subscribers and break-even.

    At that point, what's the company worth with revenues of $1Bn?  Even if you say just $1Bn, that's still $600 per current (1.4M) share or $60 per 90% diluted share after a $500M investor comes in.  He'll certainly get his money's worth if that happens!

    Again (and I've always said this) – I'm not saying it WILL happen but I think their concept is viable and likely viable enough find an interested party at some price.  That party may insist on liquidating the current shareholders but it would be mean for no reason since there's so few of us remaining and $60 x 1.4M is only $100M – really not worth getting into the lawsuits and such vs the great stories of how the faithful got rich.  

    Yes, it's a lottery ticket but it would be a nice one if each of my kids gets a house off my $10K gamble (and only another $1K to DD again at 0.10 for 20,000 at 0.50 avg).  

    From the company this morning:

    MoviePass: We’re Still Standing

    To paraphrase Mark Twain: Talk of our demise is greatly exaggerated

    …any crowing about the uptick in box office receipts this summer season should include the fact that a significant percentage of that total is directly attributable to MoviePass subscribers.

    Here’s just a sample:

    • MoviePass contributed nearly one-fourth of the domestic box office receipts for Lionsgate’s “Blindspotting” through the first Tuesday after its release.
    • MoviePass ticket purchases represented nearly 17 percent of Thursday night previews for Paramount’s “Book Club.”
    • For Warner Bros.’ “Tag,” which MoviePass promoted in-app, its purchases represented 13 percent of the film’s opening weekend domestic box office totals
    • MoviePass ticket purchases accounted for about 12 percent of the entire theatrical run for Magnolia Pictures’ runaway documentary hit “RGB.”

    Overall, we believe as much as 6 percent of the industry’s total box office receipts can be traced to our loyal subscribers. It’s clear that because of MoviePass, more people are seeing more movies at fair prices. Instead of wishing us away, the industry, particularly the independent film producers, should be congratulating and supporting us. Absent MoviePass, exhibitors are fighting to preserve profits in a declining box office environment. That’s the doomed strategy.

    Yes, we’re going through a rough patch not unlike what other disruptive enterprises experienced in their early days. Much of our issues can be attributed to the unprecedented growth in a business that just 12 months ago did not exist.


  36. Any good earnings plays for this afternoon?


  37. Phil// Question on Moviepass (HMNY) – I thought the company's market cap has to be a min of $50 Million dollars.  So based on that HMNY would be de-listed before someone might come and save them.  What are your thoughts?  Thanks.


  38. By the way, on CELG.  The long logic is much like TEVA's as yes, REVLIMID is 60% of their revenue but 

    Earnings/Soma – I like GPRO down here as they beat last Q and sold 30M cameras (since 2009) and Jackie bought a knock-off and declared it total crap and then got the Hero and is thrilled with it.  They are pulling in $1Bn and most of their losses have been over R&D misses like drone systems.  They will still lose money, but probably less than 0.25/share and that's pretty good progress.  What I like about GPRO isn't the mass-market cameras but their $50,000 Professional Systems, where they are the king of the market by a wide margin.  

    We sold 20 2020 $8 puts for $3.75 back in Jan and they are now $2.70 so we're up a bit and I still like the target.  You can sell those to pay for the $5 ($1.85)/$8 (0.80) bull call spreads at $1.05 so let's say you did 3 longs for each short and it was 30/10 (net $450) on the $9,000 spread so 1,900% upside potential at $8 and worst case is you own 1,000 shares for $8.45/share.

    HMNY/Rookie – Delisted/Rookie – They will have about 60 days to cure it (because they were briefly over $1, the clock reset) so it's up to management to find a buyer in that time and stay off the penny exchange though another 1/100 reverse would leave me with 100 shares at $13 and the whole company would be down to 160,000 shares.  This is just a lottery ticket, probably throwing money away but could be very cool if it hits.


  39. Make that 20,000 at 0.55 ish avg now – just filled a DD at 0.10.

    In the LTP and OOP, we're also going to TRIPLE DOWN on HMNY at 0.10 because we're talking only about $1,000 more and we may as well see it through at this point.


  40. In the LTP, that will be total of 30,000 HMNY as well as in the OOP.


  41.  Unfortunately, the whole newsfeed went under the portfolio Review, Since I wrote that article after this one.