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Monday Market Movement – August Vacations Kill the Volume

Image result for trump trade war tweets cartoonIt's vacation time! 

I'm on vacation and Europe is on vacation which leaves no one to trade the market, so don't expect much this week or next.  Even the President is on vacation but, sadly, not away from Twitter, where he's having a busy weekend claiming victory in the Trade Wars and attacking the media.  So far, the markets have been oblivious to the escalating Trade War, which is very, very dangerous and the reason we pressed our hedges at the last options rollover.

Another guy who can't stop tweeting is Elon Musk and, following the Presendential tradition of inappropriate tweeting, Musk sent out a parody video of Hitler shorting Tesla stock which is, frankly funny and, coincidentally, I once made a paradoy using the same video on the same subject when the company was much smaller ($150 and we were long) but, then again, I don't run a $60Bn company.  Actually, if you read my 2013 parody's text – it does lay out exactly what Musk had to accomplish to get to this stage of success.

Oddly enough, we're getting ready to short TSLA again as it re-tests its highs as it is overpriced.  Even if they are able to further ramp up production they are still bleeding cash and, as the Trade Wars escalate, TSLA could get caught in the crossfire but, over $360, it's priced well beyond perfection.

Apple (AAPL) is still a bargain at $1Tn ($208) and people are talking $250-300/share now which suits us fine as our pre-earnings play on AAPL for our Short-Term Portfolio was:

July 30th, 2018 at 12:15 pm | (Unlocked) | Permalink

AAPL/John – I don't think anything very exciting happened in Q2 and they've beat the last 4Qs by a bit and last Q2 they made $1.67, which was an 0.10 (6.4%) beat and this Q people are expecting $2.18 which is up 0.51 (30.5%), which would be huge but last July the stock was at $154 and now $189 so up $35 is only 22% so it's not likely they miss and that would certainly justify $200 but it would be crazy to play them short-term since the market has not been taking disappointment well.  If you want to play AAPL on earnings, I'd go with:

  • Buy 5 June 2020 $165 calls for $40 ($20,000) 
  • Sell 5 Jan 2019 $185 calls for $14.70 ($7,350)

That's net $12,650 on the $10,000 spread but you have 18 months to roll the short calls and the June 2020 $220s are $15 so, if all goes well, you can roll your way to a $27,500 spread and, if all doesn't go well, the short Jans will go worthless and you can then sell puts like the June 2020 $165s (now $11) for $15 or $20 and sell some 2020 calls for $15 or $20 and then you have a credit spread with a nice, cheap entry on the put side.  

As an educational tool, let's put it in the STP.

As we expected, we're right at the $1Tn mark after earnings and the June 2020 $165 calls are now $54 while the Jan $185s are now in the money at $27.40 so the net of the spread is now $13,300, up $650 (5%) but those Jan $185s can be rolled to the June 2019 $195s ($25) or the Jan 2020 $205s ($25.75) or the June 2020 $215s ($24.90) so, for just a coupld of Dollars, the spread can be widened up to $50 for a potential $25,000 pay-off (+100%) but, for now, we'll keep the short $185s until the $4.40 of premium wears down a bit more.  

Of course, we already had much more aggressive long-term plays on AAPL in all our portfolios – including our Money Talk Portfolio, where our position is:

Long Call 2019 18-JAN 150.00 CALL [AAPL @ $207.99 $0.00] 20 9/6/2017 (165) $50,600 $25.30 $33.65 $25.30     $58.95 $0.10 $67,300 133.0% $117,900
Short Call 2019 18-JAN 165.00 CALL [AAPL @ $207.99 $0.00] -20 9/6/2017 (165) $-35,400 $17.70 $27.13     $44.83 $0.48 $-54,250 -153.2% $-89,650
Short Put 2019 18-JAN 140.00 PUT [AAPL @ $207.99 $0.00] -10 9/6/2017 (165) $-9,100 $9.10 $-8.75     $0.35 $-0.00 $8,750 96.2% $-350

So here, last September, we spend net $6,100 on the Jan spread and we haven't touched it since and it looks fairly certain Apple will expire well over $165 in Jan and we'll collect the full $30,000 for a gain of $23,900 (391%) in 15 months.  You do not have to swing for the fences to make great money betting on blue-chip companies using these options strategies! 

That's why we don't fear moving to cash – it's not like we're going to miss anything.  Companies don't "get away from us" because we don't need to bet they go higher to make great money on our spreads.  Another nice thing about our spreads is we don't have to take big risks to pick up bargains. 

Facebook (FB), for instance, fell from $215 to $170 on in-line earnings with disappointing growth but it's still a monster company with half the World's population logging on at least once a month.  It's only up to $178 this morning and, even if they only make $6/share ($7.20 expected), that's 30x earnings but I'd certainly pay $120 and I can sell 5 2020 $140 puts for $9 ($4,500) which would net me in for $131 – so not tragic enough for me not to consider the $4,500 free money to play with.  

I don't have to play FB to go higher than it is now.  In fact, I can pick up 5 of the June 2020 $140 calls for $56 ($28,000) and sell 5 of the June $165 calls for $40 ($20,000) which is net $8,000 and, less the sale of the June 2020 $140 puts, that's net $3,500 on the $12,500 spread that's 110% in the money to start.  Our break-even is $147 which is $30 (20%) below the current price so our bet is that, as long as FB doesn't fall more than 20% (and fail to recover) by June, 2020, we will have a profit, up to $9,000 (257%).  

Our worst-case is having 500 shares of FB assigned to us at net $147 ($73,500), but that assumes we take no action along the way.  The ordinary margin requirement on the short puts is just $5,000 as they are so far out of the money, so it's a margin-efficient way to make $9,000 too.  

See, that's a very non-aggressive way to make $9,000 – making solid, long-term returns does not have to be stressful. This particular play is not right for our OOP, because it's too big and not right for our LTP, because it's too small but if you have a desire to take advantage of Facebook's dip – it might be right for you!

We still have plenty of earnings reports to pay with and it's a slow week, economically, with not much going on outside PPI Thursday and CPI Friday, but neither of them are usually big market-movers:

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Forecast Briefing.com Consensus Prior
Aug 07 10:00 JOLTS – Job Openings Jun   NA NA 6.638M
Aug 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Jun   $15.5B $15.5B $24.6B
Aug 08 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications Index 8/04   NA NA -2.6%
Aug 08 10:30 Crude Inventories 8/04   NA NA +3.8M
Aug 09 08:30 PPI Jul   0.2% 0.3% 0.3%
Aug 09 08:30 Core PPI Jul   0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Aug 09 08:30 Initial Claims 8/04   217K 220K 218K
Aug 09 08:30 Continuing Claims 7/28   NA NA 1724K
Aug 09 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jun   0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
Aug 09 10:30 Natural Gas Inventories 8/04   NA NA +35 bcf
Aug 10 08:30 CPI Jul   0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Aug 10 08:30 Core CPI Jul   0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Aug 10 14:00 Treasury Budget Jul   NA NA -$42.9B
 

It looks like we'll be able to find some fun stuff to trade this week – even if half the World is on holiday.

 


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  1. These tax cuts are are really for the middle class:

    https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/08/trickle-down-economics-is-working-about-as-well-as-usual/

    But who shows the results…


  2. Good Morning.


  3. HMNY

    ~~•MoviePass plans to limit customers to three movies a month in a reset of prior terms, according to The Wall Street Journal.
    •The company notes that about 85% of its customers already watch no more than three movies a month.
    •CEO Mitch Lowe tells the WSJ the move will help reduce cash burn by 60% and help make the attempted run at profitability more manageable.
    •Shares of parent Helios and Matheson Analytics (NASDAQ:HMNY) are swapping hands at $0.06 in premarket trading.
     


  4. No, we are not adding jobs in the steel industry and tariffs won't help:

    https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/08/raw-data-us-steel-production-since-the-end-of-the-recession/

    Overall steel production in the US has been increasing steadily but very slowly since its collapse in 2015. Capacity utilization has been running between 60-70 percent since the end of the recession and is currently at 76 percent, which suggests there’s unlikely to be a major boom in new plant construction. Employment in the steel industry in Pennsylvania has declined by about 2,000 over the past three years and has been dead flat since Donald Trump became president.


  5. Good morning! 

    Let's buy back the short IQ Jan $35 calls in the STP, they are down to $2.75 from $8.25 we sold them for but, more importantly, down from being $10 in the money!  Our longs are 2020 $25/40 but it's a free spread already with the profits from the short puts so let's just see if they run back up so we can sell more calls.


  6. Greg,

     

    Can you please send me the information on the New Age Ventures investment if it's not too late?

     

    Thank you,

     

    Ken Felton


  7. Indexes down a bit.  Could be the first negative day since July 27th for the Nas but it's no different than that chart from last weeks about the probability of consecutive results:

    Of course this applies to a coin flip situation where the movement of an index can be influenced by positive or negative factors but I think we can say that they are also rarely going to line up consecutively as well.  

    It would be interesting to look at the idea of starting bets against anything happening the 6th, 7th or 8th time in a row and see how often things really push that far.

    NewAge/Fel – I'll have Greg send you something. 


  8. HMNY up 28%!   Woo-hoo!  Another 12% and we might hit double digits (0.10)!

           MoviePass lowers terms to 3 movies/month 24m 10       

    MoviePass: How Existing Investors Can Get Another Chance

    No particular reason the markets are down.  I have to go return my renal car, should be back around 11.


  9. /RTY is the laggard at 1,677.5 so a good short with very tight stops above.  Lined up with 2,838 (so watch 2,840), 25,370 (so watch 75) and 7,396 (so watch 7,400).


  10. VIX below 12, who is worried!

    Short VXX calls doing great though!


  11. Phil,

    FYI, re New Age Ventures, sent you an email last night and emailed Greg this AM . Look forward to the particulars.


  12. Phil, an unusual question for this forum but I live in London and "retail" investors based in Europe often cannot longer trade SPY, QQQ and many other ETS (as explained here - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-23/the-unforeseen-boost-to-europe-s-etfs-as-spy-no-longer-an-option). That's despite using the US stock broker – IB would now not allow me trading most of instruments you seem to be using for hedging… I wonder if you could recommend any alternatives? The link above includes some suggestions but they do not look too good…


  13. HMNY

    Yahoo Finance shows that after the reverse split, the company has 1.69 millions shares outstanding.

    It looks like the stock has traded 96 million shares today.    Interesting, huh ?


  14. Well, that selling didn't last long at all.  

    Didn't even get to 1,670 before popping back up.

    NYT: Steel giants with Trump ties block tariff relief for hundreds of firms

    Cisco, Arista agree to dismiss all patent litigation

    Facebook +2% on report it's seeking big-bank customer data

    About time!  Maven to acquire Say Media assets

    • Maven (OTCQB:MVEN +50%agrees to acquire Say Media assets, which include enterprise advertising and tech platform partnerships
    • Maven also announced a convertible preferred stock financing with net cash proceeds of ~ $13M led by B. Riley FBR and Maven CEO & founder James Heckman.
    • Preferred stock proceeds will be used to complete the Say asset purchase, the HubPages merger, and provide working capital.
    • Both the acquisitions are expected to close during August 2018.

     

    • "You better be prepared to deal with rates 5% or higher--it's a higher probability than most people think," JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon told participants at Aspen Institute's 25th annual summer celebration gala this weekend, Bloomberg reports.
    • The U.S. 10-year Treasury note has a way to go to reach that level.This morning its yield is down less than 1 basis point to 2.94%. Early Friday morning, the yield was at 2.99%.
    • Still, Dimon is optimistic on financial markets outlook. He says the current bull market can continue for about two or three more years because the economy is doing well.
    • TLT +0.36%; TBT -0.65%
    • Previously: U.S. Treasury yield slips after weaker-than-expected July jobs report (Aug. 3)
    • MoviePass plans to limit customers to three movies a month in a reset of prior terms, according to The Wall Street Journal.
    • The company notes that about 85% of its customers already watch no more than three movies a month.
    • CEO Mitch Lowe tells the WSJ the move will help reduce cash burn by 60% and help make the attempted run at profitability more manageable.
    • Shares of parent Helios and Matheson Analytics (NASDAQ:HMNY) are swapping hands at $0.06 in premarket trading.
    • Sector watch: The U.S. box office is up 8.2% Y/Y through August 5, according to the latest tabulation by Box Office Mojo.

    Wynn Resorts names new chairman

    • Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD) falls sharply after lowering its view for full-year EBITDA due to recent generic drug bid activity and anticipated generic drug market conditions for the balance of the year.
    • The retailer sees adusted EBITDA of $540M to $590M vs. a prior forecast for $615M to $675M.
    • Shares of Rite Aid are down 10.57% in premarket action.


  15. QCOM – good press

    Cowen analyst Matthew Ramsay upgrades Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) to Outperform from Market Perform.

    Price target to $80 from $64. Implied upside 22%.

    "With more clarity into 5G, risk/reward is compelling," Ramsay writes.

    QCOM was also mentioned positively by Morgan Stanley today: "We spoke with a senior RF engineer at a leading China OEM and learned that Qualcomm is in the driver seat to capture new RF content in the initial wave of 5G capable phones in China."

    At $80, only Canaccord's T. Michael Walkley has a higher target on QCOM ($81). Street low is DZ Bank's Ingo Wermann at $45.


  16. Worry/StJ – What can there possibly be to worry about?

    New Age/8800 – You and me both!  Their lawyer is very picky, which isn't bad once we're partners but sucks as we're trying to arrange the partnership…  Just heard from Greg, he says he just Emailed you 2x with no response.  Maybe make sure it's not hitting your spam?  I assume he's using the address of whatever you sent him.

    Alternatives/Alter – Well, I'm sure you can trade the futures, that's one way.  Also, is there not a broker that lets you trade US securities?  SPY may not be compliant but that doesn't mean SDS is not – not sure what alternatives you've tried.  You can also hedge using stocks with high beta correlations or stocks that are just stupidly expensive like NFLX as a Nasdaq crash would almost certainly take them down too.  

    So, for example, let's say we were trying to protect a $200,000 portfolio from a 10% drop in QQQ which would likely cost you 20% ($40,000) if you have a lot of leveraged positions.  So you want to mitigate at least 1/2 the damage and let's see how we can do that with NFLX.

    By the way, you can also find a bearish hedge fund that makes money in down markets – they have those too.  

    • Sell 5 NFLX March $400 calls for $19 ($9,500)
    • Buy 10 NFLX Jan $360 puts for $37.50 ($37,500) 
    • Sell 10 NFLX Jan $330 puts for $22.50 ($22,500)

    That's net $5,500 on the $30,000 spread that's half in the money at the moment and NFLX is almost 20% away from $400 so very unlikely to cost you money on short calls unless the Nas is blasting higher and anything down will pay you back $24,500 in profits to offset the long losses in the index. 

    It's not perfect and, of course, NFLX can strangely benefit from an event so it's best, in a larger portfolio, to spread the targets around but this is a good example of something you can use as a hedge instead of hedging the indexes.  

    HMNY/Albo – Either the people are going nuts trading it back and forth or something else is wrong.  Trading volume ramped up drastically AFTER the split – that's super-strange.

    Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume
    Aug 06, 2018 0.07 0.13 0.07 0.12 0.12 132,645,875
    Aug 03, 2018 0.11 0.14 0.06 0.07 0.07 154,583,500
    Aug 02, 2018 0.20 0.20 0.10 0.10 0.10 98,048,900
    Aug 01, 2018 0.59 0.60 0.21 0.23 0.23 52,302,600
    Jul 31, 2018 0.73 2.00 0.46 0.50 0.50 44,673,100
    Jul 30, 2018 1.87 1.87 0.78 0.80 0.80 11,481,700
    Jul 27, 2018 6.83 7.05 1.86 2.00 2.00 8,087,800
    Jul 26, 2018 10.60 11.99 6.75 6.83 6.83 2,467,600
    Jul 25, 2018 14.23 14.98 10.50 10.60 10.60 2,002,200
    Jul 25, 2018 1/250 Stock Split
    Jul 24, 2018 25.00 27.50 20.00 22.50 22.50 260,900
    Jul 23, 2018 27.50 27.50 20.00 25.00 25.00 221,800
    Jul 20, 2018 30.00 30.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 167,500
    Jul 19, 2018 30.00 30.00 27.50 27.50 27.50 129,800
    Jul 18, 2018 30.00 35.00 27.50 27.50 27.50 324,700
    Jul 17, 2018 30.00 30.00 25.00 30.00 30.00 184,300
    Jul 16, 2018 40.00 40.00 27.50 27.50 27.50 329,200
    Jul 13, 2018 52.50 52.50 35.00 37.50 37.50 389,300
    Jul 12, 2018 42.50 50.00 42.50 45.00 45.00 113,700

  17. BRK/B trading up 3%+ this morning on 2nd Q earnings release. Book value per B share is now 145. The "old" buyback (120% of BV) is now 174. The "new" buyback standard is "below intrinsic value" as determined by Buffet/Munger, I doubt we see any movement on buybacks unless there is a general price retrace. Historical trading range has been 1.2 to 1.6 BV. Today trading at 1.4 so in the middle. 

    Available cash (float) up 2B to 116B. 



  18. Shake Shack Could Fall A Lot Further



  19. OLED trading at recovery high.  Added a couple more BCSs.

    They report Thursday afternoon.


  20. HMNY / Phil, Albo – Could it be that they are simply adding shares each day, with stealth dilution? That's a good way to raise cash.



  21. Thanks, Phil. Most of the ETFs (e.g., SPY, Q/SQQQ, TZA, SDS, DXD, TWM etc) are unfortunately not available for me through all of the US brokers. Looks like this leaves me with futures & short specific stocks. But your example with NFLX was a good one, thanks.


  22. STJ – If they were, they'd have to publicly disclose it. Unless they have an unbelievably large shelf registration.  It's very confusing.


  23. BRK/Pstas – Fairly priced, I think.  Good proxy for the S&P.

    HMNY/StJ – Not sure they can do that without notification, but it does look like that's what they are doing.  Shareholders voted to allow 5Bn shares to be created but very odd if they are just printing and selling every day though, if that's how they are raising money, at 0.10, it still raises $500M but, if the stock recovers, they have to sell a lot less.  So 2M at $10 was $20M and 2M at $8 was $16M and 8M at $2 was $16M and 12M at $1 was $12M and 44M at 0.50 was $22M.  If that's the case, then they have quite a war chest after issuing 500M shares (about $100M) and the only thing keeping their stock down was their own flooding the markets – very primed for a massive short squeeze if that's the case (now up 75% at 0.12), which is what would happen if they suddenly announced they have $100M in cash.

    Hedges/Alter – Also, if you are rich enough to make it worth it, you can set up a trust in the US and have the trust open a US trading account you use to hedge your main holdings.   Also a nice way to move money around.

    HMNY/Albo – LOL, from July 2nd too!  


  24.  Speaking of volume (or lack thereof):

    Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume
    Aug 06, 2018 283.64 284.78 283.21 284.75 284.75 13,595,650
    Aug 03, 2018 282.53 283.66 282.33 283.60 283.60 53,919,900
    Aug 02, 2018 279.39 282.58 279.16 282.39 282.39 63,426,400
    Aug 01, 2018 281.56 282.13 280.13 280.86 280.86 53,853,300
    Jul 31, 2018 280.81 282.02 280.38 281.33 281.33 68,570,500
    Jul 30, 2018 281.51 281.69 279.36 279.95 279.95 63,742,500
    Jul 27, 2018 283.71 283.82 280.38 281.42 281.42 76,768,700

  25. That's SPY, by the way, should be over 30M by 12:30 – even at the "normal" low volume.

    Wow, 12:30 already?  So much for swimming…  Guess I'll just try to knock off early.


  26. FB and AMZN both having good days.  AAPL $209.  NFLX up 2% too.  FAAN great, GOOGL a bit flat but not down.

    Facebook has asked banks to share financial information about customers, including account balances, as it seeks to boost user engagement

    Since began trading in '93, owning only during regular trading hours would leave you down ~9%. All of its gains have come outside of regular trading: https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog (the late 90s/early 00s period is where most of the regular trading hours weakness comes from)

    The “Expected Probability Paradox” For Options Traders

    ALARMING: All-time hottest temperature records set ALL OVER THE WORLD this past week:


  27. Glad to help solve the HMNY mystery… Sometimes the simplest explanation is the correct one! 

    Works for our president too…


  28. True.  

    Boy, our guys are on vacation too…

    You don’t have to convince me to knock off early, I’m going to go out at three but I’ll be back tomorrow.


  29. Nothing to worry about:

    • German industrial orders plunged by 4.0% in June, following a 2.6% increase in May, the steepest monthly drop in nearly a year and a half, indicating lower production in the coming months.
    • Foreign demand fell 4.7%, with orders from countries outside the Eurozone falling the most.
    • The Economy Ministry said that industrial orders fell by 1.6% on the quarter in the April-June period, citing the trade tensions caused by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies.
    • Venezuelan consumer prices rose to 82,766% in the 12 months ending in July, as the OPEC nation's hyperinflation continues to accelerate amid a broader economic collapse.
    • The IMF last month estimated that Venezuela's consumer prices would rise 1,000,000% in 2018.
    • Inflation in July slowed slightly to 125% from 128.4% in June, according to opposition legislator Angel Alvarado.
    • Maduro, who was reelected in May in a vote that dozens of foreign governments described as rigged, is preparing to remove five zeroes from the country's currency in an effort to keep up with inflation.
    • Chinese car imports declined 87.1% Y/Y in June to 15,000 vehicles as automakers delayed shipments before tariff cuts on foreign-made vehicles took effect last month.
    • Overall sales of imported cars during the 1H18 fell 22.1% Y/Y to 451,971 vehicles.
    • In May, China announced that it would steeply cut import tariffs for foreign-made automobiles and car parts to 15% from 25% from July 1, however, China raised tariffs on cars imported from the United States to 40% amid rising trade tensions with Washington.
    • The Trump administration says it expects buyers of Iranian oil to begin winding down their purchases as of midnight tonight in response to new U.S. sanctions, but countries including China, India and France are considering creative measures to keep importing Iranian crude.
    • U.S. sanctions against Iran on sectors including automotive and aircraft are set to return on Aug. 7, while oil companies will have until Nov. 4 to adjust; Iranian oil exports declined in July by 300K bbl/day to 2.3M barrels, as European refiners cut purchases ahead of returning sanctions, and analysts say Iran’s losses ultimately could total 1M bbl/day.
    • "Our goal is to get the import of Iranian oil to zero," says a senior U.S. official, adding that the government "is not looking to grant exceptions or waivers but [will consider] requests on a case-by-case basis."
    • Total (TOT -0.2%), the main importer of Iranian oil to France, has cut its purchases from Tehran and largely filled the gap with Russia’s Urals crude grade, according to European traders.
    • MoviePass (NASDAQ:HMNY) issues the full details on its new pricing plan and terms.
    • The service says it will retain its monthly subscription rate of $9.95 and at the same time create a "long-term and sustainable" business model.
    • "For our subscribers who have migrated to the new subscription plan, we are suspending Peak Pricing and Ticket Verification," notes MP.
    • More details: "The new plan is focused on usage by the bulk of our subscribers who have historically used MoviePass to attend three movies or fewer a month. Additionally, the new plan addresses past misuses which imposed undue costs on the system, including ticket scalping, unauthorized card usage and other activities, which in the past necessitated the use of certain remedial measures that have sometimes been inconvenient for our subscribers."
    • MoviePass subscribers will transition to the new plan on August 15 upon their renewal. Subscribers will have access to three movies a month for $9.95, and up to a $5.00 discount for any additional movie tickets.
    • HMNY is +38.57% to $0.097.
    • Source: Press Release

    That's just since lunch!


  30. OSTK

    Overstock.com unit tZERO announces that its Security Token Offering will close tonight  (36.95 +0.70)

    The company plans to report on the results of the STO this coming Thursday, August 9, 2018, during Overstock's earnings call.

    BDC, do you have an opinion on this ?   Thanks.


  31. WHR/Phil- time for a BCS?


  32. Psts. Abx.  That wsj article. Lining up the ceo for an exit. 



  33. OSTK /Albo:

     

    That bloody stock is killing my gains!  let´s see opinions.