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Fake Money Friday – Weak Dollar Makes Markets Look Like They Are Recovering

The Dollar is testing 94.

That's down over 1% since Sept 1st and 1.5% off it's highs so take the market "gains" with a Lot's wife-sized grain off salt since the indexes have gone nowhere for the month yet the Dollars they are priced in have lost 1% of their buying power – that's not good!  

We're picking up longs on /DX off the 94 line, looking for at least a $200/contract bounce to 94.20 and, of course, keeping very tight stops below the line but 94 should be nice and bounce – even if it ultimately fails.  Brexit still isn't finished and the Trade War is far from settled (despite the relief rally on White House happy talk) so it won't take much to jam the Dollar right back to 95, which would be $1,000 per contract gains if all goes well.

Meanwhile, despite the huge boost from our weak currency, the S&P (/ES) is right where we left it at the end of August and the volume has gotten even lower by 10-15% – any lower than this and the last two guys trading can just get together in person to make their few transactions.  Professional traders do not like seeing low liquidity in the markets but it sure doesn't seem to bother the Robots and ETFs that are trading the market these days.  That's becuse people think things are great and aren't trying to sell but God help us all when they do…

In Wednesday's Live Trading Webinar we were shorting Gasoline (/RB) Futures at $2.04 and we let one contract ride overnight and that one contract made a nice $2,112 yesterday afternoon so – you're welcome!  It's too risky to keep playing over the weekend so we'll just hope "THEY" spike it back up over the weekend so we can short it again next week.  

More likely we'll switch to shorting Oil (/CL), which is still at $69 as oil is coming into a very difficult roll as December is already stuffed with almost 300M barrels worth of fake, Fake, FAKE orders and the 4 front months now have over 1Bn barrels worth of FAKE!!! orders that will have to be cancelled or rolled by the end of the year.  Just imagine if they actually took delivery of 1Bn barrels of oil over a 4 months period.  The US only uses 19M barrels a day so each month we go through 570M barrels but we produce 11Mb on our own and import 8Mb so just 240M per month is imported for the entire US but 3.5Mb of that comes from Canada in piplelines and 1.5Mb comes in pipelines from Mexico which means only 3Mb/d arrives by ship and certainly not all of that goes to Cushing, OK – a facility that can only handle 50Mb per month!  

Click for
Chart
Current Session Prior Day Opt's
Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
Oct'18 68.79 69.14 68.66 68.84 07:52
Sep 14

 


-
0.25 96879 68.59 194488 Call Put
Nov'18 68.63 68.95 68.46 68.64 07:52
Sep 14

 


-
0.23 21637 68.41 363927 Call Put
Dec'18 68.56 68.85 68.40 68.57 07:52
Sep 14

 


-
0.22 9783 68.35 289955 Call Put
Jan'19 68.41 68.72 68.30 68.45 07:52
Sep 14

 


-
0.20 1560 68.25 154772 Call Put

Still, the NYMEX is trading 250Mb per month worth of FAKE orders for delivery to Cushing, OK – a physical impossibility yet the regulators do nothing to stop it and I have complained to Democrats and Republicans for two decades and nothing ever changes so all we can do is accept the fact that these are fake orders and make our money back betting that, when expiration day comes along (next Thursday) they will have a lot of pressure to roll contracts.  That's going to make Oil (/CL) a very good short below the $70 line.

If you want to hedge your short position on front-month /CL contracts, you can pick up a long contract, like the Dec 2022's, which are trading at $57.52, more than $10 below the current contracts so you can lock in your own oil for delivery in 4 years for $57.52 while fearlessly shorting the front-month contracts because, if they move up against you, you can simply do what all the NYMEX traders do, which is to roll your front-month and, 48 months from now, if oil is still at $70, you'll have a $12.50 spread times 1,000 barrels for a $12,500 per contract gain.   

Dec'22

-

-

-
57.12 * 07:52
Sep 14

 


-

-

-
57.42 8840 Call Put

If oil drops, we assume the front month will have a more drastic move down than the longer months so you can pick up the short-term money and cash in or wait for the next bounce and do it again.  That's all it takes to lock in the price of all the gas and oil your family is likely to use in the next 4 years while allowing you to make some short-term money speculating along the way.  That's how we force those FAKE!!! bastards at the NYMEX to pay us for their BS con game – so it's satisfying as well…

Meanwhile, our Central Banksters may not see a need to hike rates but Russia's Central Bank just did, raising their key interest rate to 7.5%, the first rate hike since 2014, when rates were as high as 17% at the peak.  “Changes in external conditions observed since the previous meeting of the board of directors have significantly increased proinflationary risks,” the Central Bank said in a statement, noting that the ruble’s exchange rate has weakened since the start of the year. The Ruble is down more than 14% against the Dollar so far this year, although it rose 0.7% in response to the rate hike. 

Turkey raised rates sharply yesterday, from 17.5% to 24% as that country looks to reign in the inflation that our own Fed can't seem to find and signs of, despite the fact that home prices are rising and fuel prices are rising and auto prices are rising and education costs are rising and medical costs are rising (in fact, the Administration has been very vocal on that point) yet, somehow, officially in the US – there is no inflation.  Dictatorships are more honest with their people than the US Government – sad.

We have lots of data this morning with China's Retail Sales along with ours as well as Industrial Production for both countries while China will give us Fixed-Asset Investments and the US will have Consumer Sentiment and Retail Inventories.  I have no idea when China comes out but we just (8:30) got retail sales and they sucked at 0.1% while Import Prices for 2018 (so far) have blasted up 3.7% – what inflation?

Running an economy based on false information is what led to the collapse of 2008.  All the reports ignored the facts back in 2007 as well and we got glowing reports from the Banking and Real Estate sectors and none of the official Government Reports picked up on the myriad of underlying problems that were flasing massive warning signs for those who were willing to pay attention (while being ridiculed by the bulls for being a worry-wart).  As I've said many times, I got tired of banging the drup and warning people to be more cautious in 2007/8 so I'll error on the side of annoying you in 2018/19 to make sure the next drop doesn't catch you overly bullish.

Leading Economorons had forecast Retail Sales to be up 0.5% so it's "just" an 80% miss – which is pretty good for these guys yet they'll ask them for targets again next month as well.  Last month, Industrial Production was up 0.1% and this month they predict 0.4%, so we'll see how that goes but Michigan Sentiment (10am) should be strong as the other consumer surveys have been strong so far.  

So it's wait and see into the weekend but I like the S&P (/ES) Futures short at 2,915 with tight stops above as a play on the data so far.

Have a great weekend, 

- Phil

 


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  1. Interesting that making the iPhone in the USA would not be that expensive and certainly Apple could afford it:

    https://www.vox.com/technology/2018/9/13/17851052/apple-iphone-price-china-trump-us-trade

    However, cost is only one part of the problem:

    As Konstantin Kakaes wrote in the MIT Technology Review in 2016, putting together the iPhone in the US from parts made abroad would only cost about $30 to $40 more per phone, a modest increase for a device with a 64 percent profit margin. Even if every part was made in the US, an iPhone would cost about $100 more, Kakaes concluded, assuming raw materials were still purchased on global markets.[...]

    “There’s a confusion about China,” Cook said. “The popular conception is that companies come to China because of low labor cost. I’m not sure what part of China they go to, but the truth is China stopped being the low labor-cost country many years ago. And that is not the reason to come to China from a supply point of view. The reason is because of the skill, and the quantity of skill in one location and the type of skill it is.”


  2. Good example on how democracies dies – Hungary edition:

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/9/13/17823488/hungary-democracy-authoritarianism-trump

    This is the lesson the Hungarian experience offers for the United States. A political party that was once dedicated to democracy can, over time, become so preoccupied with holding power that it no longer cares enough about the substance of democracy to play by the rules.

    America is not yet on that brink. The Democrats are favored to take back at least one house of Congress in the 2018 midterms, which would give them the power to check Trump and the GOP’s undemocratic inclinations. Democracy in the United States has fallen ill, but it’s pretty far from a terminal diagnosis.


  3. Good Morning!


  4.  

    Former Trump Campaign Chairman Paul Manafort pleads guilty to charges of conspiracy against the United States related to his foreign lobbying activities in Ukraine - 


  5. Good morning!

    Wow, nice quick win on /ES so far, testing 2,910.  I'm taking quick gains as I forgot I didn't want to play anymore this week (but I have my 2 long /KCN9, of course) since I'm up about $8K and don't want to blow a penny of that.

    Risks are for people who DIDN'T lose $20,000 last month…

    Big Chart – Just making "M"s at the moment, another 50 dma test lies ahead.

    China/StJ – That's a good point but one the Conservatives will never admit because it comes from China's investments in Infrastructure and Education to lift the amount of money their bottom 1Bn (66%) are able to make, which in turn lifts the economy and produces a record number of Billionaires but the GOP doesn't want NEW Billionaires – they tend to be Democrats – the GOP wants frightened, old-money Billionaires who want to stifle innovation and opportunity to maintain the status-quo at all costs – even if it destroys this country in the long-run.  Essentially it's nothing more than a protection(ist) racket for the Top 1%.

    Hungary/StJ – Another good example of how assholes trying to hold their power wreck the country around them. 









  6. Paying for Healthcare – The Belle Curve


  7. Hogs/1020 – One of many problems they'll be facing. 

    Very quite today – I guess we're taking Monday's and Fridays off now?

    Next week will be busy with portfolio reviews.


  8. Nat gas taking a huge dive as hurricane isn't disrupting anything and it's too warm for heating and too cool for air conditioning and pools are closing so real drop in demand.

    Not worth playing as we may go much lower in Dec.

    Unless, of course, we get a gulf hurricane.


  9. Oops, many no pardon anymore:

    In a major reversal, former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort is cooperating with the special counsel as part of the plea deal in his federal criminal trial.

    I guess Trump will turn on him now! Called him so courageous 2 weeks ago. Not so much now. Funny what the prospect of 20 years of jail does to someone's courage.


  10. CLF has had a strong couple weeks.  They are getting close to starting a dividend and/or buyback program.    Current estimates are for over $2.0 in earnings in 2018 and still cheap.  I'm waiting for $15 before I start lightening up.


  11. LB – Cashing out my short put position.  Small profit.

    Better places for those funds, IMO.


  12. what reversed the mkt at 12?


  13. Everything went off the cliff-anything else happening?


  14. Trump's tweets keeping it interesting I guess?

    UVXY has really cratered – I was assigned some at an average of $9.50, but even with the underlying at $8 it's still been a great year selling puts. Hoping for a pop!


  15. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-14/trump-said-to-want-200-billion-in-china-tariffs-despite-talks

     "President Donald Trump instructed aides on Thursday to proceed with tariffs on about $200 billion more in Chinese products despite his Treasury secretary’s attempt to restart talks with Beijing to resolve the trade war, according to four people familiar with the matter."



  16. Wow, nice, sudden drop after hitting 2,915 again.  I told you tariffs were not fixed! 

     

    • For the umpteenth time, it's being reported that the administration is moving forward with $200B in tariffs against China.
    • Tripping along at about 26,200 prior to the news, the Dow has slipped all the way to 26,125 – roughly flat on the session.

    Dollar over goal at 94.40 – congrats to the players on that one.

    CLF/Palotay – Tariffs have been good for them.

    LB/Albo – They just gave up on Henri Bendel so still reorganizing.  Market likes the move though.  As you know, I've been banging the table and saying they're a $40 stock – no matter what the current price is.


  17. OPK – Resumed trading.  Staying away.


  18. Phil, can you give your thoughts on NXPI.  I'm short 5 2020 $100 puts, with a basis of $8 (so net $92).  I'm thinking it may be time for a bull call spread, although I recognize last week's dip would have been a better time to do it.


  19. OPK/Albo – Not too terrible but certainly not good.  

    Here's their story:

    OPKO Health, Inc. (OPK) is pleased to confirm that The Nasdaq Stock Market has lifted the trading suspension of OPKO’s shares.

    As noted previously, OPKO and 19 other defendants, including Dr. Phillip Frost, its CEO and Chairman, were named in a Complaint filed on September 7 by the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). The Company will vigorously defend itself against these charges.

    As noted previously, the SEC’s lawsuit does not contain any allegations about OPKO’s financial practices, financial statements or business practices.

    Here's the SEC's story:

    According to the SEC, 10 individuals, including Frost, and 10 associated entities, including Frost's Frost Gamma Investments Trust, participated in "long-running fraudulent schemes that generated over $27 million from unlawful stock sales and caused significant harm to retail investors who were left holding virtually worthless stock."

    The SEC's complaint states that a group of "microcap fraudsters" led by Barry Honig used "classic pump-and-dump schemes" between 2013 to 2018. 

    In these pump-and-dump schemes, Honig allegedly acquired "large quantities of the issuer's stock at steep discounts, and after securing a substantial ownership interest in the companies, Honig and his associates engaged in illegal promotional activity and manipulative trading to artificially boost each issuer's stock price and to give the stock the appearance of active trading volume." Once shares rallied because of the manipulation, the group allegedly sold their shares, "reaping millions of dollars at the expense of unsuspecting investors." Frost allegedly participated in two of three schemes, according to the SEC's complaint. 

    Opko Health has also amassed equity stakes in various companies, including Arno TherapeuticsCocrystal Pharma, and RXi Pharmaceuticals. Overall, Opko discloses ownership in 12 small-cap companies in its 2017 10-K SEC filing that are collectively valued at $40.6 million as of Dec. 31. 

    Unfortunately, based on the SEC's complaint, it appears Frost's wheeling-and-dealing style may have landed him and Opko Health in hot water that significantly tarnishes his and his company's reputation. 

    Up until now, the fact that Frost has been involved so heavily in Opko Health as CEO and is its largest shareholder has helped support the company's share price. Given the black eye associated with the SEC charges against him, investors are unlikely to pay a Frost-premium to own Opko Health shares from here. 

    If that's the case, then Opko Health is going to need some big wins. Unfortunately, Opko Health's acquisitions haven't panned out so far. It's been slow going for Rayaldee, and BioReference Labs' revenue is declining. Also, a chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting drug, Varubi, that it licensed to Tesaro (NASDAQ: TSRO) and that won FDA approval in 2015 has been a commercial dud. Earlier this year, Tesaro walked away from Varubi after it had to pull an IV formulation off the market following reports of anaphylaxis. Overall, Opko reported a $6.2 million net loss on $263.7 million in sales, down 10% year over year, in Q2. 

    The lackluster financial performance does little to offset the overhang now associated with the SEC's "continuing investigation." The situation is likely to be a major distraction for the company, and the possibility of lawsuits adds even more uncertainty. 

    WTF is wrong with people?  Frost is a multi-Billionaire and he's messing around with that nonsense?

    NXPI/Palotay – We discussed them in the Webinar yesterday, I don't think there's anything wrong with them other than they became ridiculously over-priced and now they are realistically priced at $92.50, which is $32Bn for a company dropping about $1Bn to the bottom line.  I know most estimates you look at show $2Bn but this is why:

    Income Before Tax 1,789,000 -592,000 1,495,000 647,000
    Income Tax Expense -483,000 -851,000 -104,000 40,000
    Minority Interest 189,000 221,000 288,000 263,000
    Net Income From Continuing Ops 2,272,000 259,000 1,599,000 607,000

    Sadly, analysts are idiots and simply extrapolate off whatever last year was but last year NXPI got a $483M tax credit (even more the year before) so, more realistically, they made just $1.78Bn but then they would have to pay ordinary taxes on that at some point so call it $1.5Bn at best and so $32Bn is 20x realistic earnings – so this is right where they should be trading.

    Year End 31st Dec 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 TTM 2018E 2019E CAGR / Avg
    Revenue $m 4,358 4,815 5,647 6,101 9,498 9,256 9,402 9,430 9,911 +16.3%
    Operating Profit $m 251 537 1,046 2,015 -182 2,061 622     +52.4%
    Net Profit $m -115 348 539 1,526 200 2,215 973 2,280 2,445  
    EPS Reported $ -0.47 1.36 2.17 6.10 0.58 4.28 0.69      
    EPS Normalised $ 0.21 1.81 2.25 3.61 1.01 0.59 0.61 6.90 8.24 +22.7%
    EPS Growth % -82.5 +747.2 +24.5 +60.4 -72.0 -41.2 -89.0 +1,061 +19.3  
    PE Ratio x           154.6 150.3 13.3 11.2  
    PEG x           0.15 0.14 0.69 0.63
    Profitability

    While I wouldn't panic out of the short puts (you can always roll them), I don't thing I'd want to be aggressively long here.


  20. Thanks Phil.


    • The Atlanta Fed tracker is now seeing 4.4% GDP growth in Q3. That's up from the 3.8% expected just a few days ago. Boosting the forecast were this morning's retail sales and industrial production reports.
    • The Blue Chip consensus remains at about 3.1%.

    • The count of total active rigs in the U.S. rises by 7 to 1,055 after staying flat a week ago, Baker Hughes reports in its latest survey.
    • Oil rigs also rose by 7 to 867 and gas rigs remained flat at 186, while two rigs are classified as miscellaneous.
    • U.S. WTI crude oil +0.5% $68.92/bbl, a bit higher than before release of the data.
    • MGM Resorts (MGM) officials say that traffic at the MGM Springfield is way ahead of expectations.
    • The new casino is averaging about 50K daily visitors during the weekends and 25K daily visitors during the week since the August 24th opening,
    • Early forecasts for the MGM Springfield were for traffic of around 15K to 20K per day.
    • Shares of MGM are down 18% YTD.
    • Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF +3.2%) says it is launching a promotional campaign with other companies that tout the benefits of Pres. Trump's steel tariffs, targeting voters in iron- or steel-producing states through the next several weeks ahead of the Nov. 6 midterm elections.
    • “We’re not going to be even talking about the tariffs, we’re going to talk about the jobs that they generate,” says CEO Lourenco Goncalves. “This is a campaign explaining to the public that we’re not an industry of the past, but an industry of the present.”
    • CLF does not say how much it is spending on the campaign or which other companies are involved, although an ad says it is paid for by “American steel producers."
    • Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLAproduced close to 6.7K units over the last seven days and pushed out 2.3K in the last two days alone, according to Electrek.
    • Electrek says Tesla is still on track to achieve at least the lower-end of its Q3 Model 3 production guidance of 50K to 55K vehicles and has a shot to even surpass it by the end of the month if production keeps trending higher.
    • The latest info from Electek indicates that Tesla should be close to producing 80K vehicles total in Q3.
    • Earlier this week, Seeking Alpha Marketplace's Anton Wahlman observed that the company has been commenting on production and sales quite a bit, but not reaffirming prior profitability or cash flow targets. On Tesla's Q2 earnings call, Elon Musk said he was "highly confident" of the automaker being cash flow positive and GAAP profitable in Q3. Will investors push Tesla lower if the GAAP number is in the red?
    • Shares of Tesla are up 2.0% on the day as they look to retake the $300 level again.
    • Cannabis Pharmaceuticals (OTCQB:CNBX +6.9%) says one of its cannabinoid compounds demonstrated a greater ability to kill cancer cells than traditional chemo in a preclinical study. No other information is provided.
    • JP Morgan says Intel’s (NASDAQ:INTC) “worsening” chip shortage could reduce Q4 PC shipments by 5% to 7%.
    • Analyst Gokul Hariharan: "We expect this to affect both notebook and desktop PCs and likely to have a higher impact on commercial and high-end consumer PCs, where using AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) or older Intel family of CPUs as substitutes are more difficult." 
    • The analyst suspects Intel might have already converted some of its 14nm manufacturing capacity to the 10nm process. Intel isn’t moving to its next-gen tech until the end of 2019. 
    • Intel shares are up 0.2% to $45.68.      
    • Previously: Report: Intel will outsource some 14nm production to TSMC (Sept. 10)
    • Caterpillar (CAT +0.6%) reports a 23% Y/Y increase in worldwide machine retail sales for the rolling three-month period ending in August, roughly flat vs. results from June and July.
    • The North American region surpassed Asia Pacific with a 29% Y/Y growth rate for the period, rising from 27% in July and 22% in June, while Asia Pacific sales gained 28%, declining from 30% last month and 37% in June; sales growth rose 18% in Latin America but fell to just 9% for Europe and the Middle East.
    • CAT's energy and transportation retail sales for the latest rolling three-month period rose 11%, as sales rose 30% in oil and gas and 12% in power generation but fell 4% in transportation and slid 8% in industrial.
    • CAT says worldwide sales in the resource industries rose 35%, including 30% growth in North America and 77% in Asia Pacific; in construction industries, global sales gained 21%, including 30% in North America and 19% in Asia Pacific, while total energy and transportation retail sales rose 16%.
    • Looking for a volatile IPO stock to trade? NIO (NYSE:NIO) fits the bill as shares follow on yesterday's monster 70% gain with a 25% drop before being halted by the Nasdaq on a mandatory volatility action.
    • Shockingly, NIO soared to a market cap valuation of over $14B yesterday to outdistance established auto players Kia Motor (OTCPK:HYMLF) and Mazda (OTCPK:MZDAY) on a valuation basis.
    • The reasons for investors to be concerned about NIO include cash burn questions, a slow production ramp and a sky-high valuation – while the positive thesis on NIO hinges on Beijing support for EVs and growing demand for premiums EVs.
    • NIO's share price has ranged from $5.35 to $13.80 this week.
    • Previously: NIO +70% in second day stunner (Sept. 13)
    • Sears Holdings (NASDAQ:SHLD) says the potential deal to sell Kenmore and home improvement assets to Eddie Lampert-controlled ESL Investments will be subject to a vote of "disinterested" shareholders. A special committee of independent directors is also reviewing this proposal on behalf of the company.
    • Sears is up 13% in premarket trading, although at the depressed share price the move only represents a gain of $0.16. Widening out the scope, Sears is still down 64% YTD.
    • Sears is only covered by one Wall Street investment firm, but remains a favorite target of discussion in the short-selling community.
    • Dave & Buster's Entertainment (NASDAQ:PLAY) trades higher after topping estimates with its Q2 report.
    • Food and beverage revenues increased 10% to $130M and amusement/other revenue rose 17% to $189M.
    • Operating income increased 50 bps to 14.4% of sales during the quarter.
    • Looking ahead, D&B expects sees full year revenue of $1.23B to $1.26B vs. $1.20B to $1.24B prior guidance and $1.24B consensus.
    • Shares of D&B are up 2.56% in premarket trading to $58.99.
    • Dave & Buster's (NASDAQ:PLAY) announces that it's initiating a $0.15 per share quarterly dividend. The dividend yield at yesterday's closing price is 1.04%.
    • The board also increased the company’s total share repurchase authorization by $100M and extended the share repurchase program through the end of FY20. Including the additional authorization, D&B now has ~$146.9M available for share repurchases.
    • Hedgeye's Howard Penney is already puzzling over the capital allocation move. "Over the next 12 months if $PLAY spends $100MM buying stock back and spends $190 million in cap ex it will need to borrow $ to pay the dividend! The dividend is purely a cosmetic move for company that has declining customer counts," he tweets. Hedgeye has been warning on Dave & Buster's since last year.
    • Over the last 52 weeks, Dave & Buster's ranks 30th out of the 47 restaurants stocks with a market cap of at least $50M with a +10.3% performance.
    • PLAY +1.82% in premarket action.
    • Previously: Dave & Buster's higher after guidance lift (Sept. 14)
    • The disappointing 0.1% gain in retail sales was offset somewhat by an upward revision in the July retail sales tally to +0.7% from +0.5%.
    • On a year-over-year comparison the retail sales numbers look a little brighter, retail sales were up 6.6% in August, led by gains in gas stations (+20.3% Y/Y), clothing stores (+6.3%), grocery stores (+4.3%), general merchandise stores (+3.7%), food services/drinking places (+10.1%) and nonstore retailers (+10.4%).

    • Aurora Cannabis (OTCQX:ACBFFannounces that shares and warrants in subsidiary Australis Capital will be start trading on the Canadian Securities Exchange under the symbol "AUSA" on Wednesday, September 19, immediately following the distribution of Units by Aurora to shareholders.
    • Australis is Aurora's investment arm that will target stakes in the cannabis arena and associated real estate.
    • Among the takeaways from a number of presentations at the Barclays financial services conference this week, according to Evercore ISI's John Pancari: The fast loan growth story is taking longer than hoped to materialize, and net interest margins could disappoint.
    • He notes M&T (NYSE:MTB) trimmed its loan growth outlook, while Comerica (NYSE:CMA), SunTrust (NYSE:STI), and KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) implied the same. A number of other players, however – PNC Financial (NYSE:PNC), Citizens First (NYSE:CFG), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB), and Zions (NASDAQ:ZION) – didn't change their loan growth guidance.
    • Source: Bloomberg
    • Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) is presenting today, and giving its shareholders some needed good news, lifting its two-year ROTCE target to 14-17% from 12-15% (presentation slides here). As for loans, C&I and consumer loans are seen slipping sequentially. Net interest margin in Q3 is expected to be flat from Q2. Its shares are higher by 0.8% premarket.
    • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPLhas chosen LG Display (NYSE:LPL) as the second supplier of OLED screens for iPhones, according to the Electronic Times.
    • Sources at the South Korean paper say LG’s flexible panels recently passed Apple’s quality tests. 
    • Samsung Display was the only OLED supplier for the iPhone X, which had a delayed release due to production issues, and Apple tries to avoid overreliance on one supplier. 
    • LG experienced problems procuring production equipment for the smaller OLED panels, which pushed its full-fledged OLED shipments until next year.       
    • Previously: Apple won't have second OLED supplier until 2019 (Sept. 7, 2017)

    Silver: The Ultimate Bottom

    AMD: Winter Is Coming 

    • Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAY) aims to produce 40 electric or hybrid vehicles in China by 2025, according to a company statement.
    • Despite some recent down months, the automobile market in China is still easily the world's largest. Last year, 24M cars were sold in China, compared to 17M in the U.S. and 15M in the European Union.
    • Shares of Volkswagen are up 1.51% in Frankfurt trading.
    • British business is responding to yesterday's comments made by BOE Governor Mark Carney, who said a "no-deal" Brexit would result in a 35% crash in home prices and the unemployment more than doubling.
    • Major British companies have warned of the risk of border delays and additional charges, but some Brexiteers are calling Carney's predictions "completely wrong."
    • JD Wetherspoon founder Tim Martin said he's got a "terrible record for making these sort of predictions."
    • It's just been a few weeks since the rollout of Venezuela’s new money, which stripped five zeros off the bolivar, but inflation of the new currency is already 100%.
    • That would push annual inflation above 100,000%, according to Bloomberg's inflation scale.
    • It comes as Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro meets with President Xi of China, one of his ailing country's biggest creditors, which has reportedly agreed to extend a $5B credit line.
    • DocuSign (NASDAQ:DOCUprices its public offering of 8,060,550 shares of common stock by certain selling stockholders at a price of $55.00 per share.
    • Underwriters over-allotment is an additional 1,209,082 shares.
    • DocuSign will not receive any of the proceeds from the sale of the shares.
    • Closing date is September 18.
    • Previously: DocuSign launches secondary equity offering (Sept. 12)

    • Nike's (NYSE:NKE) stock closed at an all-time high on Thursday, hitting a record $83.47 per share.
    • The company has been at the center of controversy after former NFL quarterback Colin Kaepernick last week became the face of its 30th anniversary "Just Do It" campaign.
    • At the time, some predicted the marketing move would tank Nike's stock valuation, while others claimed it was a genius business decision.
    • Taking a giant leap toward commercializing space travel, SpaceX (SPACE) has signed up its first passenger for a flight around the moon, with the person's identity to be revealed on Sept. 17.
    • Asked whether he'd be the first passenger, CEO Elon Musk – who's also the head of Tesla – posted an emoji of a Japanese flag.
    • SpaceX's valuation has climbed to about $28B, making it the third-most valuable venture-backed startup in the U.S. after Uber and Airbnb.

    • Procurement of solar energy by U.S. utilities exploded to a record 8.5 GW in H1, prompting the Solar Energy Industries Association to boost its five-year installation forecast despite the Trump administration’s tariffs on imported panels.
    • The report says procurement soared in part because the 30% tariff was lower than feared, and panel prices fell faster than expected because China pulled back its subsidies in June, creating an oversupply of modules in the global market that eroded the impact of the tariff.
    • The research firm raises its utility-scale solar forecast for 2018-23 by 1.9 GW, although the forecast is still 8% lower than before the tariffs were announced; utility projects make up more than half of the total solar market.
    • Utilities will eager to get projects going because of a federal solar tax credit that will begin phasing out in 2020, the report says, adding that next year will be the most impacted by the tariffs.
    • Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAFOTCPK:VLKAY) say it will end production of the iconic Beetle next year, ending an 80-year run for a car that once introduced many Americans to the German brand.
    • Production of the original Beetle ended in 2003 but a more-modern version of the car that was larger and had more creature comforts debuted in 1997; the newer model has been produced in Mexico since 1999.
    • VW says the move comes as it focuses on other models and its electric car lineup but left the door open for a potential return of the nameplate.

  21. Well that was a day we could have skipped!  

    Have a great weekend folks – I leave you with this feel-good video, 

    - Phil


  22. that's funny! have a great weekend everybody!


  23. Great Find Phil!  :)






  24. Thousands of residents still out of their homes after gas explosions trigger deadly chaos in Massachusetts


  25. Has China’s most famous actress been disappeared by the Communist Party?






  26. A great article posted by St. Jean Luc that I thought worth posting in the room….

    http://jimoshaughnessy.tumblr.com/post/175118354574/mistakes-were-made-and-yes-by-me

     

    My take away…

     

    "I’m lucky that I keep journals in real time, in that it helps me avoid something we all face—hindsight bias. Our brains are very complicated, and they manage to fill in our memories with thoughts we didn’t think at the time; with things we didn’t know at the time. It’s almost impossible for us to accurately recall what we were thinking and the version our brain serves up to us is, to be charitable, very kind to us but also incredibly wrong. Here are some things I wrote down at the time:

    1.     Be humble—arrogance killed some of the best potential deals in history.

    2.     Take the money—when someone else wants to give you a lot of money for something you have, let them. Work out the details afterward.

    3.     Don’t overanalyze—everything will eventually break down and from some angle will not make sense.

    4.     Understand people’s motives—they are not always what they seem.

    5.     Understand how fragile the average person is—it will always come out at the worst possible time.

    6.     Murphy was an optimist—expect six-sigma events as normal, not extraordinary.

    In another journal, I wrote that hubris—excessive pride or self-confidence—was an expert assassin of even well-founded hopes and dreams. Whom the gods would destroy, they first make great, especially in their own minds.

    What’s the Point?

    The point is simple—mistakes provide a lesson-rich environment. But you’ve got to own your mistakes. You’d be compounding them if you tried to point your finger at anything or anyone other than yourself. The most successful people I’ve met have usually also been the ones who not only made the most mistakes but also always owned them. If you have the ability to say “I was wrong” and truly believe and learn from it, you’re close to gaining a new superpower in life.

    So many people refuse to own their own mistakes, blaming others, bad luck, bad timing, you name it. If life give you a choice to compete against any type of person, always pick the ones that think most outcomes are due to luck. Does luck play a part? Almost always, but I rarely think—outside of lottery tickets—it’s ever the overriding reason for an outcome. Having the ability to learn all the lessons you can from mistakes you’ve made makes you better prepared for the next time. For as Isaac Asimov said, “in life, unlike chess, the game continues after checkmate.”    


  27. That was a good article 1020… Thanks for reposting part of it!






  28. Chief Justice Roberts halts campaign finance ruling