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Thousand Dollar Thursday – Our Webinar Trades Make Quick Profits

Do you want $1,000? 

How about $1,237.50?  That's what we made during our Live Trading Webinar yesterday in the S&P Futures alone.  And that was at 2,925 – this morning, our two remaining Futures contracts stopped out at 2,915 after testing 2,912 and that was good for an additional $500 per contract gain – another $1,000 to start your day!  

Futures trading is not hard and it is not scary or complicated – that's one of the things we try to teach our Members in our weekly live trading Webinars.  In fact, in yesterday morning's PSW Report, we made an entire case for shorting the S&P Futures (/ES) at 2,640 so all we did at the 1pm Webinar was follow our own advice.  A 15-point drop on the /ES Futures is good for $750 for each contract and each contract requires $6,600 in margin and changes $50 for each point the S&P moves.  

So, the way we like to enter a trade in the Futures is to find a good line of support or resistance – in this case S&P 2,640 – and then we use that for a stop, say at 2,645, so we're limiting our loss to $250 but, ideally, we prefer to catch a move on the way under the line – so momentum is on our side and then we keep very tight stops over the line. 

Usually we win or lose $250 but, once in a while, we win a lot more on a nice move in our favor.  If we can keep our small wins and losses about even then those big wins become our profits.  Our other calls from yesterday's morning Report were:

We're still shorting the S&P (/ES) at 2,940 with tight stops above the line and the Dow (/YM) at 26,900 – also with tight stops above and we're shorting Oil (/CL) Futures at $75.50 – but very dangerous into inventories at 10:30 and, other than that – it's another "watch and wait" sort of day while we wait to see if the S&P can break over 2,940 and make a serious run at 3,000 because – why not?

See, that's all there is to it.  Even this morning you can still catch the Oil (/CL) Futures short at $76.30, still well above our target though missing the boat a bit from yesterday's PSW Report, which would be delivered to your inbox every morning (unless I'm late) at around 8:35, while the report is "IN PROGRESS" if you were to SUBSCRIBE FOR $3/day and, of course, you have access to the full report every day before the market opens at 9:30 – or as soon as I'm done writing it but usually on time.  

Of course, if you don't think it's worth $3 to get trade ideas that make thousands – save your money.  If you think Futures trading is too difficult for you, try opening what they call a Paper Money Account at TD Ameritrade's Think or Swim (my favorite and no, they don't pay me but they should!) or any broker's practice account and then see if it's really not for you or if you are just being a wimp.

Like many things in life, good trading is about being in the right place at the right time and the hardest thing to teach people is PATIENCE.  People are not generally patient – especially in these days of instand gratification.  I was fortunate to learn trading from my Grandpa Max, back when I was very young and, in those days, the newspapers only published stock information on Sundays so you really didn't have a choice other than to wait weeks and months to see your trades play out.

Image result for patient tradingOften enough, my grandfather would decide to keep an eye on a stock when I saw him in the spring and, in the winter, he would still be "watching" to see if it would give him a good entry.  That's how I learned to trade stocks so it's the IMPATIENCE of most investors that is difficult for me to adapt to.  While trading futures is a very quick in and out sort of game – waiting for the right set-up to trade is the exact opposite. 

The key to being in the right place at the right time is to keep putting yourself in the right place and, eventually, it will be the right time.  Take people who audition for shows – they could be very talented but not look the part or "sound right" at any given audition so they can give up after a few tries or they can keep trying until they find a show they fit into.  You'll find most successful actors are very, very persistent people.  Successful traders are too! 

We look for good lines of support and resistance but we also go in with a Fundamental view that the stock or commodity should be higher or lower than it is at the moment.  If all the stars don't line up for a trade – we move on and try to find something else.  That's why last year's Top Trade Ideas were 85.7% successful in 2017 – going 54 and 7 but some of those "losers" turned into winners in the end anyway.  

We only send out a Top Trade Alert to our Members for the set-ups we think have a very high probability of success and those are stock and options trade ideas, not Futures.  Our most recent Top Trade Alert had 9 trade ideas in it – that's a bit unusual but, as we discussed yesterday – I saw a great opportunity to take advantage of a toppy market and make $100,000 by Christmas – so we jumped on it!

You can't take advantage of great trade ideas if you have all your money tied up in mediocre trades.  That's why we regularly purge our Member Portfolios and always try to keep a good amount of CASH!!! on the sidelines because – when the right trade comes along – we want to be ready, willing AND able to pull the trigger on it.  

This is a really crazy market and the political climate is even crazier and the economic climate is all over the place so it's a good time to stay flexible and stay very well-hedged.  While we're waiting PATIENTLY, there will be many many trades we're able to take advantage of but don't over-expose yourself in either direction.  I'd love to get more bearish but it's been a suicide play for the last two years so, for now, we're going with the flow but keeping one hand firmly on the exits – just in case. 

 


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  1. How people like Trump get away with cheating on their taxes with a helping hand from the GOP Congress:

    https://www.vox.com/2018/10/3/17932216/donald-trumps-tax-returns

    This was not, to be clear, a case of austerity imposed by budgetary necessity. The IRS believes that business owners like Trump illegally underpay taxes by about $125 billion per year, based on macroeconomic estimates. Investing in catching those tax cheats would pay off easily, but congressional Republicans haven't wanted to do it because, arguably, they think it’s good that rich business owners are able to get away with cheating on their taxes.


  2. Good Morning!


  3. Cool chart:


  4. The Big Hack: How China Used a Tiny Chip to Infiltrate U.S. Companies

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-04/the-big-hack-how-china-used-a-tiny-chip-to-infiltrate-america-s-top-companies

    “During the ensuing top-secret probe, which remains open more than three years later, investigators determined that the chips allowed the attackers to create a stealth doorway into any network that included the altered machines. Multiple people familiar with the matter say investigators found that the chips had been inserted at factories run by manufacturing subcontractors in China.”


  5. I read that this morning Mikezuela and I guess it's one of the risks of getting all our computing manufacturing in China! It's been denied by lots of companies but when there is smoke…


  6. Pretty cool map with lots of demographics information:

    https://opportunityatlas.org/

    I learned some information about my neighborhood!


  7. Good morning, All!

    The webinar replay is now available!

    https://youtu.be/_TSsekNk6p0


  8. Good morning!

    $75.75 on /CL is the stop out now, as we're below it.  Still hoping for $75.50 or lower, not much support until $74.50.

    Still looking for 1,678 (weak bounce) on /RTY going back to Tuesday's notes and below 1,670 is more likely that we're legging down to 1,640 (strong retrace from 1,700) and then we can expect the other indexes to AT LEAST weak retrace from their highs.

    That's off the year runs so, for the Dow, we're looking at 25,000 to 27,000 which is 2,000 points so 400-point retraces are 26,600 (weak) and 26,200 (strong):

    /ES is essentially the same /10 so 2,700 to 2,900 means 2,860 and 2,820 and, since /ES is still at 2,923, it makes a great short below the 2,920 line with tight stops above.

    /NQ 6,400 to 7,600 is 1,200 so 240-point retraces and Nas loves 25s so call it 250 to 7,350 and 7,100.

    HMNY almost a nickle!  

    IRS/StJ – The whole system is a joke.  We need a VAT so everyone pays their fair share.  Then you don't even need the IRS – just enough to police corporate transactions without bothering citizens, who would only pay through payroll taxes which the companies take out.  

    With a $20Tn economy, our Government currently only collects $3Tn, including SS, Medicare and Payroll taxes.  State and local taxes are another 10% so a 25% VAT would generate $5Tn and balance our budgets without taking a penny from the workers.  Probably a 20% VAT and 10% Payroll would be enough to start paying down debt.

    That chart is great!  

    China/Mike, StJ - Imagine how they feel when so much stuff comes from the US.  

    Goaaallllllllllllll on oil!  

    Opportunities/StJ – That's from a massive study they just finished.  Good use of Big Data.


  9. This guy should just get a permanent Emmy:


  10. Phil, didn't you put out a trade idea for shorting the retail sector ETF?


  11. XRT/Soma – That was from last Thursday's Report:

    As I noted on Tuesday, we are already getting swamped by companies who are issuing negative guidance for Q3 and the good news is that's going to lower the expecations bar considerably, so it won't be as easy to disappoint but Bed Bath and Beyond just reported a rough quarter and that stock tumbled 15% after hours.  The Retail ETF (XRT) is trading at record highs – it was only at $22 before collapsing to $8 in 2008 and now it's at $52, so it makes a fun short if you are worried about Retail Stocks (and we are).  For our Short-Term Portfolio (STP) we can add the following hedge:

    • Sell 10 XRT Jan $52 calls for $1.85 ($1,850) 
    • Buy 20 XRT Jan $55 puts for $4.15 ($8,300) 
    • Sell 20 XRT Jan $50s for $1.45 ($2,900) 

    That's net $3,550 on the $10,000 spread that's more than 1/2 in the money to start so the upside potential below $50 is $6,450 (181%), not bad for 3 months and a great way to hedge potential losses on retail stocks.  

    I'm also liking AMZN on the short side again but they are super-scary to short so I think we'll patiently wait to see if they can get back to $2,050 before putting our foot down.  What's enticing about AMZN is you can sell the Jan $2,400 calls for $21 and probably better than $22 this morning as they test $2,000 and, while AMZN has moved 20% in a quarter many times before – they haven't done so when 20% was $200Bn.  Not only that but the Jan $2,400 calls can be rolled to half as many of the 2020 $3,000 calls, which are currently $57 so, if you have the money for it, it's a fun short.

    Selling 10 of the Jan $2,400 calls for $21 nets you $21,000 but requires $80,000 in ordinary margin.  Nonetheless, making $21,000 on $80,000 in 3 months is a pretty good use of sideline cash and it's very hard to imagine AMZN gaining 20 times Macy's (M) entire $10Bn valuation in that period of time – their earnings would have to be truly astonishing!   Still, too risky for our Member Portfolios, though we may consider the short position if we can find a good way to hedge it. 

    Going well so far.


  12. 26,600 is a good line to play for a bounce on /YM (weak retrace line from above).

    Obviously done with our shorts at the moment and we'll see what the bounce looks like.


  13. So we're at 25,600, 2,900, 7,540 and 1,660 and, if these fail weak bounces – we may be heading to the strong retrace lines so short the laggard again.  




  14. From the FT "GE’s $23bn writedown is a case of goodwill gone bad" (subscription required). 

    "When General Electric replaced its chief executive this week, it also said it would write off $23bn from the value of one of its core divisions, the business supplying equipment to the power industry. Most of the charge relates to its 2015 purchase of the energy businesses of Alstom of France for $10.1bn, and it raised a question that has been widely asked in the days since: How is it possible to take a writedown that is greater than the cost of the acquisition? The Alstom deal is not the sole reason for the writedown — the rest of GE’s power division is also sinking fast— but the accounting for the purchase reveals how GE was so keen to get the deal done that it paid too much".   

    Unfortunately for investors stupid incompetent management is a difficult characteristic to analyze on an company's financial statements.            


  15. Why Democrats Should Be Worried About That NPR Poll




  16. Phil/ indices

    Good morning!

    So., go long if those levels hold? 

    S&P seems to be holding the 2900 line, but it’s still early going of day 1.

    It still feels like AAPL wants to test 240..closed my shorts yesterday with small profits but did not anticipate today.


  17. GE/Winston – On the bright side, we won't have to pay taxes for a couple of years.

    Just weak bounces so far on the indexes.  We got just 50 points out of /YM ($250) and the bounces on the 200-point drop were 40 and 80 points so need 26,680 to be strong.

    AAPL/Maya – It's just that every $5 on AAPL is $25Bn in market cap.   As I noted with AMZN, the entire Market Cap of Macy's is $10Bn, GM is $50Bn – a $10 move in AAPL.  These are crazy numbers to move up and down in the short-term and very out of touch with reality.

    /NQ breaking down again, /YM may be the laggard below 26,650 for a new short play (very tight stops over). 


  18. what did winston say about GE? I don't see his post?


  19. It was 11:16 – are you ignoring him?  His name would be on the bottom of your comment box.


  20. $75 on /CL!  

    • Danske Bank (OTCPK:DNKEYdives 4.6% in U.S. trading after disclosing that U.S. Department of Justice started a criminal investigation into the money-laundering scandal where $230B from accounts linked to Russia and other former Soviet countries were funneled into Europe through Danske's tiny Estonian branch.
    • The bank says it's received requests from the DOJ. It's also in talks with "authorities regarding the terminated non-resident portofolio at its Estonian branch, which was active between 2007 and 20015."Those include criminal investigations in Estonia and Denmark
    • "We are cooperating with the authorities investigating us as a result of the case. However, it is too early to speculate on any outcome of the investigations," says interim CEO of Danske Bank, Jesper Nielsen. 
    • Previously: WSJ: Danske Bank in money laundering probe; Citi, Deutsche Bank involved (Sept. 14)

  21. Phil – I don't see Winston's post at 11:16. 

    And I would never ignore Winston !


  22. I had to refresh to get winston's comment


  23. AHA, Stockbern.  Thanks.


  24. Try refreshing.  Sometimes people get ignored by accident.  I think Winston's link caused the comment to be held as spam briefly, that's why you might have missed it on the auto-refresh.

    • investors pulled more than $2B from the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Exchange-Traded Fund (HYG -0.3%) last month, the most in a single month since May 2016, the Wall Street Journal reports.
    • Furthermore, some investors are buying protection in the form of option contracts that would help to offset losses if junk debt sells off.
    • The resilience of high-yield credit at a time when the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates is leading to growing apprehension among some, the WSJ says.
    • The spread between Treasury yields and the average speculative-grade bond yield has declined to the narrowest level in a decade, indicating that investors are willing to take less compensation on riskier companies on the basis that economy is strong enough for these companies to make their debt payments.
    • Previously: Junk bonds' risk premium shrinks to smallest since 2007 (Oct. 2)
    • The lodging and casino sectors are showing some sensitivity today to macroeconomic news. Analysts indicate that the mix of higher oil prices and elevated interest rates could dampen some of the enthusiasm over a consumer spending boon.
    • Notable decliners include Empire Resorts (NYNY -5.1%), Bluegreen Vacations (BXG -2.3%), Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO -3.3%), Century Casinos (CNTY -2.6%), Marriott Vacations (VAC -2.8%), Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV -4.6%), Royal Caribbean (RCL -1.9%), Caesars Entertainment (CZR -2%), MGM Resorts (MGM -2.1%), Las Vegas Sands (LVS -1.9%), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH -1.5%), Wyndham Destinations (WYND -2.2%), Marriott International (MAR -1.8%), Park Hotels & Resorts (PK -2.1%), Hilton Worldwide (HLT -1.5%), InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG -2.4%), Extended Stay America (STAY -1.3%) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN -2.2%).
    • The retail sector is off to a bumpy start today, trading below broad market averages. Some analysts are pointing to the mix of broad macroeconomic news, the so-so forecast from the NRF on holiday sales and Amazon's minimum wage price hike as potential contributing factors.
    • Notable decliners include Tilly's (TLYS -3.9%), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF -2.9%), L Brands (LB-2.9%), Urban Outfitters (URBN -1.7%), Express (EXPR -1.9%), Sears Holdings (SHLD -3.2%), Francesca's (FRAN -3.8%), The Children's Place (PLCE -1.1%), Tailored Brands (TLRD -1.6%), Dillard's (DDS -1.5%), RH (RH -1.7%), Floor & Decor (FND -2.6%), Ollie's Bargain Outlet Stores (OLLI -2.4%), Burlington Stores (BURL -1%), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO -1.9%), Ralph Lauren (RL -2.7%), Hanesbrands (HBI -1.8%), Genesco (GCO -1.5%), Zumiez (ZUMZ -1.3%), PVH (PVH -1.9%), G-III Apparel (GIII -2.3%) and Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS -1.6%).
    • Previously: Holiday retail sales forecast to rise 4.3% to 4.8% (Oct. 3)

    • Global luxury stocks trade weaker after reports in China indicate that the government may crack down on citizens bringing in goods from outside of the country. There has been no official word from Beijing on the issue.
    • The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 1.73% on the day.
    • High-end retail decliners include Kering (OTCPK:PPRUF -7.1%), LVMH-Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (OTCPK:LVMHF -4.7%), Hermes International (OTCPK:HESAF -3.3%), L'Oreal (OTCPK:LRLCF -3.8%), Burberry (OTCPK:BURBY -5.7%), Tiffany (TIF -1.7%), Ralph Lauren (RL -3.7%), Compagnie Financiere Richemont (OTCPK:CFRHF), Tapestry (TPR -2.9%) and Michael Kors (KORS -1.5%).
    • Live Nation (NYSE:LYV) is slipping, down 2.7%, as the Federal Trade Commission announces it will hold a public workshop examining the online event-ticket marketplace.
    • The FTC has set the workshop for March 27.
    • "The online event ticket industry has been a frequent topic of consumer and competitor complaints, and FTC staff is seeking public input in advance of the workshop, including possible discussion topics and potential participants," the commission says.
    • Issues that frequently come up include "practices that prevent consumers from obtaining tickets, mislead consumers about price or availability, or mislead consumers about the entity from which they are purchasing."
    • The beverage sector is active following today's earnings release from Constellation Brands. There weren't any big surprises on the cannabis front from the company as it mainly stayed on script about the upside potential it sees.
    • "Our $4 billion investment in Canopy Growth provides us with a strong foothold in the emerging global cannabis market, which could be one of the most significant growth opportunities of the next decade," stated Constellation CEO Rob Sands.
    • New Age Beverages (NASDAQ:NBEV) is up 12.6%. 30-day return +444%.
    • DavidsTea (NASDAQ:DTEA) is down 10.3%. 30-day return -20%.
    • Reed's (NYSEMKT:REED) is off 2.5%. 30-day return -13%.
    • Level Brands (NYSEMKT:LEVB) is 7.7% lower. 30-day return +53%.
    • Celsius Holdings (NASDAQ:CELH) is showing a 2.8% loss. 30-day return -13%.
    • China's overseas expansion will spread over land that is home to more than half the world's population, which has the potential to increase copper use by at least 1.6M metric tons, or ~7% of annual demand, BHP Billiton (BHP +1%) tells Reuters.
    • BHP's latest analysis estimates overseas construction projects tied to China's Belt and Road Initiative represents one third of the global economy and will drive spending of as much as $1.3T through 2023.
    • "Increasing the international competitiveness of manufacturing in these regions may create a major lift in future demand from copper intensive sectors, such as automobiles, consumer durables and machinery," BHP says.
    • China is expected to be a major beneficiary of increased demand because of its massive copper smelting capacity, but BHP believes it also is well placed because it can develop its own capacity and work with junior players.
    • Aluminum prices continue to rise following the planned closure of one the world's largest alumina refineries, with three-month aluminum +1.9% to $2,248/metric ton on the London Metal Exchange.
    • Prices have surged to their highest level since June on yesterday's news that Norsk Hydro planned to fully shut its Alunorte alumina refinery, the world's largest.
    • Commerzbank analysts say the Alunorte shutdown is "fueling fears that the global aluminum market will no longer be adequately supplied, especially as uncertainty surrounding the largest Russian aluminum producer also continues."
    • While Century Aluminum (CENX +2.6%) is higher after signing an alumina supply deal, most other aluminum related names are edging lower: AA -0.4%CSTM -0.9%KALU -0.1%OTCQX:NHYDY -3.5%.

    • AT&T (T -0.8%) has named 99 new markets for its "5G Evolution" offering, a partial step towards 5G-like speeds.
    • That brings the total number of such markets to 239. AT&T says it wants to bring 5G Evolution to more than 400 markets by the end of the year, and nationwide coverage in the first half of 2019.
    • The technology offers theoretical peak speeds on supported devices of up to 400 Mbps.
    • AT&T is also extending LTE-LAA technology in parts of 20 cities, coming to "at least 24 cities this year." The LTE-LAA tech has a peak theoretical wireless speed of 1 Gbps on capable devices.

  25. speaking of XRT 

      buyer of 5,750 January $48/$45 put spreads today for $0.87

     




  26. Phil – Chinese stocks down sharply, likely as a result of that article you posted on Super Micro.


  27. Peeps on the board – I'm thinking about rotating my current 401K allocation into the money market fund option as a safety measure. Given the current market, what are opinions around this? Am I over-reacting? TIA


  28. BBBY – 10,000 of the Jan 12.50 puts traded today.

    Stockbern, do you have any insights ?


  29. China/Albo – This can lead to all sorts of trade issues – massive scandal, national security.  Total mess.  Also, "national security" issues allow Trump to do all sorts of things and it's a huge distraction from Kavanaugh and Trump's tax fraud, as well as the $3Tn tax cut to rich people Congress just passed.  

    Under the Fog of Kavanaugh, House Passes $3.8 Trillion More in Tax

    Funny how these things work out…

    Overreacting/Soma – I don't think so.  I'd wait for the dust to settle.

    Dow now down 1.25%, /ES down 1.25%, Nas down 2.5%, Rut down 1.8%.  Oil down 2.5% – $74.50!


  30. COST reports after the bell today


  31. /CL finally catching up to yesterday's inventory report. Covered 1/3.


  32. I would think 7,475 on /NQ should be it as it's the 2.5% line so 0.5% bounce is 40 points, back over 7,500.  If that fails – very, very ugly.

    Keep in mind this is just the pullbacks we were expecting after the window-dressing ended – just so happens that today we got some catalysts to get them going.

    Oil/Ati – Well, we said support around $74 was next…

    Parties Clash After Release of FBI Kavanaugh Report

    As senators began reviewing the FBI report on Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, the White House and top Republicans said they found no corroboration of the sexual-misconduct allegations against him after examining the results, while Democrats argued the probe was incomplete.

    U.S. Stocks Fall as Treasury Yields Extend Climb

    U.S. stocks slumped Thursday as a rise in U.S. Treasury yields to multiyear highs reverberated around the world.


  33. Yes, great calls on /CL yesterday, good to watch your process during the webinar as well! 


  34. FBI background check of Kavanaugh appears to have been highly curtailed


  35. Thanks Ati.

    Wow, this is just so ugly.  Not even getting weak bounces now.  

    Commodities down too – nothing is spared and panic sets in:


  36. Phil/panic

     

    any crap roll on VXX calls.

    regards


  37. albo  BBBY  probably a strangle buyer with the $17.50 calls


  38. Thanks, Stockbern.

    Phil – The more I look at BBBY, the better I like being short the Jan 12.50 puts. If put to me, the stock will be yielding almost 6% and I'd simply sell the 2020 12.50 calls against the position and receive the dividend payments.

    BBBY is the latest in a long list of retail stocks taking a hit.  Many, if not most, of the others, i.e.,  M, JWN, TGT, KSS, etc. have come back nicely.


  39. WOW this loads like a hard down day – across board


  40. VXX/Pat – Not calls, better off shorting them when they get above 15 – never lasts (so far) but the spikes can kill you so makes a lousy short too.

    BBBY/Albo – I'm tired of banging the table on them, people will either play them or they won't.  LB too.  These things take ages to turn around but well worth it when you get them cheap enough.

    Getting some bounces now, as expected, /NQ right back to the 2% line, /TF 1.5%, /YM and /ES -1%.

    Nothing really playable – especially with NFP being a wild-card tomorrow.  Under 200,000 jobs expected so easy to beat and tragic if not.  Claims were right in-line so not expecting fireworks.  


  41. NASDAQ 100 trading at the 50dMA.  Has tested that line several times since May.  It'll be interesting to see if the bulls can rally it into the close.


  42. Not much of a recovery, more important how we finish up tomorrow.

    • Big European oil companies are snubbing efforts by the European Union to shield Iranian crude from U.S. sanctions, including Total (TOT -0.8%), whose CEO, Patrick Pouyanné, says the company will not join EU efforts to bypass the sanctions.
    • The EU has announced plans to create a special payments channel for crude from Iran, but speaking for many, Pouyanné says "We cannot afford to take the risk to be banned from using the U.S. financial system."
    • The biggest European buyers of Iranian oil have included TOT, Eni (E -0.9%) and Spain's Repsol (OTCQX:REPYFOTCQX:REPYY), but the U.S. has promised to punish any company that defies its Iran sanctions.
    • "We have no presence in [Iran] any more and our trading contracts will naturally expire in November," an Eni spokesperson tells the Financial Times.
    • “The companies that are global players do care about their U.S. footprint, and they probably care about that an awful lot more than a bit of Iran business,” says Roger Matthews, a senior lawyer and sanctions specialist at Dechert. “For the bigger players, it’s difficult to see how this [payments channel] is going to make an awful lot of difference.”

    • Fox Business Network's Charlie Gasparino says the SEC is investigating Tesla (TSLA -5%) separately from the Musk-SEC settlement case.
    • Sources tell the journalist that the SEC inquiry is on potential misstatements on the company's targets for Model 3 production and company profitability. The case is considered "tougher" for the agency to handle and prove than the funding secured and follow-up tweets from Elon Musk on the go-private deal.
    • The story hasn't been confirmed by either the SEC or Tesla.

    • Super Micro (OTCPK:SIMC“strongly refutes” this morning’s Bloomberg report that the company was a conduit for Chinese chips meant to spy on American companies.
    • Key quote: “In an article today, it is alleged that Supermicro motherboards sold to certain customers contained malicious chips on its motherboards in 2015. Supermicro has never found any malicious chips, nor been informed by any customer that such chips have been found.” 
    • And this: “Each company mentioned in the article (Supermicro, Apple, Amazon and Elemental) has issued strong statements denying the claims.” 
    • Super Micro says it was never contacted by government agencies (domestic or foreign) about the alleged claims and that the company takes all security claims “very seriously.”
    • Super Micro shares are down 40.2% to $12.79.    
    • Previously: Amazon, Apple refute Bloomberg report on Chinese supply chain attack (Oct. 4)
    • Previously: Super Micro -54.5% on supply chain sabotage report (Oct. 4)
    • SunPower (SPWR -1%) is lower even after BofA Merrill Lynch upgrades shares to Neutral from Underperform with a $7.50 price target, raised from $7, as the firm expects SPWR to capitalize on near-term opportunities following the Section 201 tariff exemption.
    • The exemption gives SPWR management the opportunity to again target commercial customers that were put on hold when talk of tariffs first started, says BAML analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith, adding that the exemption implies the company will not need to pay ~$200M in tariff fees through 2021, an amount that translates to a ~$2M weekly cash burn.
    • The firm expects SPWR to provide further details about improvements and volumes with upward revisions to guidance on the company's Q4 earnings call.
    • SPWR this week completed its acquisition of SolarWorld Americas, making it the biggest U.S. solar panel manufacturer.


  43. Phil

     Do we have a trade on spwr

    Thanks


  44. Phil / RB – what are your thoughts on shorting /RB below $2.10?  Still a few wks until the /CL Nov contracts expire & heading into the weekend, so Im not sure the risk/reward is in my favor here.  TIA-


  45. COST- not living up to it's 30+ p/e. Down AH. 


  46. VXX / Pat – I actually some sold some Dec 60 calls today at $0.85. When the VIX is up 30% it's usually a decent time to sell. They are already down to $0.70 so we'll see what happens. They roll to the Jan 90 so not worried – VIX would have to be over 60 to be in trouble. VXX moves 3x slower than the VIX on average because it mixes futures with different expirations. For example, now the VIX is up 22% for the day, but VXX is up 6%. I posted before but I am looking at around 60 days to expiration (to get more premium) and at delta of 10. The Dec 60 have a delta of 12 but I feel pretty safe given the possible rolls.





  47. A Complete National Disgrace


  48. ‘It was not real insurance’



  49. Floor Charts for the Floor Show



  50. Stj/VXX

    appreciate your inputs. good the know about the time range and the delta

    regards