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Monday Market Movement – Trade Progress Keeps Things Positive

2,500!

The S&P 500 took back a critical level this morning in the Futures as we're back over the 2,500 line and holding that would be a good sign to close out 2018 - despite the epic disaster that we've already endured in Q4 as we fell from 2,950 to 2,360 so 600 (ish) points down invites 120-point bounces (20% of the drop) and 2,489 was the weak bounce line we expected last week but we're not going to be very impressed until we're back over the strong bounce line at 2,600, along with the other strong bounce lines on the other indexes:

  • Dow 27,000 to 21,600 is 5,400 points so 1,080-point bounces to 22,680 (weak) and 23,760 (strong) 
  • S&P 2,950 to 2,360 is 590 points so 120-point bounces to 2,480 (weak) and 2,600 (strong) 
  • Nasdaq 7,700 to 6,160 is 1,540 points so 300-point bounces to 6,460 (weak) and 6,760 (strong) 
  • NYSE 13,200 to 10,560 is 2,640 points so 528-point bounces to 11,058 (weak) and 11,586 (strong) 
  • Russell 1,750 to 1,400 is 350 points so 70-point bounces to 1,470 (weak) and 1,540 (strong)

Despite the surge in the Futures, we haven't gained a single green box since Friday morning's Report and today is going to be a light trading day and tomorow the markets are closed so we can't take anything very seriously today.  Not only that, but the market is mainly up this morning based on something Donald Trump said over the weekend, as he tweeted:

It's amazing to me that the market takes anything Trump says seriously as the man lies twice as often as he tells the truth (not hyperbole – a statistical fact as 70% of his public statements over the past two years have been lies) so betting against what he says is the higher-percentage play.  Nonetheless, the market jumped on the news and now we'll have to sit back and see if it sticks but it's very easy to move the indexes between the resistance levels – breaking those levels is another story entirely.

Image result for trump trade stock market cartoonI have not read anything from the Chinese side that confirms any great progress being made – this is much more likely a desperate attempt by Trump to calm the markets and avoid breaking the 1931 record for worst December in stock market history.  We all know the President likes to keep score and he used to love talking about his score in the markets – about 20% ago….  

The tweet also followed a Friday CNBC report that the White House had spoken with a prominent hedge fund investor how to halt the market rout, who responded that the President should end his criticism of Powell on Twitter, stop administration turnover and reach a trade deal with China in order to help markets.

When Trump took office in Jan, 2017, the S&P 500 was at 2,300 and we tested that last week so this almost 10% pop back to 2,500 is very important to Trump, as he wraps up his second year.  

It reamains to be seen whether or not Trump is lying about the trade progress but we do know that, on Thursday, Jan 3rd, the Democrats take control of Congress and THEN things are going to get interesting with a little bit of balance thrown back into the Government.  There are currently 19 ongoing investigations into Trump's activities and that's under a Republican Controlled House and Senate – imagine what the Dems will uncover.  

Image result for china belt and roadWhat is China's motivation to deal with a man who is so disliked at home and is almost certain to be replaced no later than 2 years from now and perhaps much sooner?  China tends to play the long game and, though they've had sharp declines in Factory Activity, don't expect them to cave into pressure after just a few months of declines.  China makes 5, 10 and 20-year plans, including the "Belt and Road" plan that Trump wants them to give up – that's simply not going to happpen.

In fact, what Trump has done is demonstrate that China does not need the US as a trading partner which will embolden their Government as they seek to firm up ties with our allies and enemies alike, forming an Asian and European alliance that has now been forced to work it's way around the US obstructionism.  Notice Teheran is a critical junction in China's plans – not a country we've been very tight with in recent years…

That's the great shame of Trump's legacy, he has withdrawn us from all the Global alliances we formed under Obama – we were even supposed to form an Asian-Pacific Trade Alliance with China and their Silk Road partners but Trump dropped that as well as the Paris Climate Accords and even broke off EU trade deals which has left the rest of the World no choice other than to move on without us – marking the true end of the American Century – not great again in the least….

50% of the World's population will be on-line in 2019 and 3.7Bn (92.5%) of those people do not live in the US yet we are thumbing our noses at the Global Consumers and, for now, we can get away with it as 75% of those 4Bn Internet Users are on FaceBook and searching with Google – but it won't last forever and God help us when those foundations begin to crack and we find we NEED good trade relationships in order to survive in the Globalist Reality this World has become.  

Germany's Angela Merkel made a New Year's speech saying Germany will keep pushing for Global solutions and will reject the Nationalism that Donald Trump and his followers embrace.  If the Democrats are unable to reign in Donald Trump in 2019, it's very likely going to be US against the World moving forward – and then we'll find out how great America really is.

Meanwhile, we don't even have a Government – it's still shut down…

Have a happy new year, 

- Phil

 


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  1. Minimum wage rising in 20 states and numerous cities


  2. This is What Traders Will Be Watching In 2019



  3. The Long Pause


  4. Shutdown Enters a New Week as House Democrats Ponder Next Move


  5. A picture of probabilities



  6. Journalist group counts 94 slayings of media staff in 2018


  7. Hi Phil, Not so fast rounding up 2018 not yet 2019!!!!

    The S&P 500 took back a critical level this morning in the Futures as we're back over the 2,500 line and holding that would be a good sign to close out 2019


  8. Good morning! 

    Thanks Yodi.

    I'm in Orlando and I'll be in and out today but mostly out.  Tomorrow the markets are closed but probably Weds we'll do a Webinar on a fairly normal day.

    Indexes look good but we'll have to see what actually sticks.  


  9. Would take the biggest day ever to make this year positive – MAGA







  10. Cyberattack Disrupts Printing of Major Newspapers


  11. 2018 in Graphics




  12. Good Morning.




  13. Carbon/StJ – Canada surprises me.  I love how we blame China when we create more than double the CO2 per person. Thank goodness India's 1+Bn are exceptionally low emitters or we'd all be under water!

    • U.S. stock markets start the last day of 2018 with decent gains, after President Trump tweets over the weekend that he had a "very good call" discussing trade with China's Xi Jinping and says "big progress" was made.
    • S&P gains 0.7%, Nasdaq +0.8%, and Dow +1.0%.
    • Healthcare (+1.1%) and services (+0.9%) sectors lead the markets.
    • Amazon jumps 1.7% after announcing plans to expand Whole Foods reach and to target rural India markets. Netflix rises 2.3% after reporting "Bird Box" streaming numbers.
    • Lagging sectors are utilities (-0.3%) and consumer goods (+0.3%).
    • Dominion slides 1.0% and Southern Company slips 0.4%.
    • Oil is up 0.9% to $45.73/bbl, gold edges down 0.1% at $1282.40/ounce and the 10-year Treasury yield rises 2 basis points to 2.74%.
    • U.S. dollar index slips 0.1% to 96.28.

     

    • It was another exciting year for investors in 2018, with end-of-the-year bear market blues and a stock market roller coaster ride.
    • Other highlights: The U.S. China trade war, Cambridge Analytica scandal, Iran deal exit, Brexit fireworks and the Italian budget, ballooning U.S. debt ceiling, revamped NAFTA, iPhone estimates and patent battles, Disney-Fox deal and IBM-Red Hat, cannabis stocks, Amazon's new headquarters, GE dropped from the Dow and the collapse of Sears, OPEC output cuts, end of ECB bond buying, rate hike drama, and the current government shutdown.

    2019 Market Outlook: A Look At Valuations And The Yield Curve 

    Pacific trade deal kicks in without U.S.

    • U.S. farmers, already hit by low commodity prices and China's punitive trade tariffs, are bracingfor a tough 2019 as the refurbished Trans-Pacific Partnership came into effect.
    • Known as CPTPP, the pact will slash tariffs among the 11 nations that cover 14% of global growth.
    • It's already a reality for Australia, Canada, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Singapore and Vietnam, while the remaining four members – Brunei, Chile, Malaysia and Peru – are soon expected to follow suit.
    • Citing volatile financial markets and softer economic data, Goldman Sachs has shaved its growth forecast for the first half of next year, from 2.4% to 2%, and said growth would slow to a virtual crawl below 2% in the second half.
    • However, the bank declared it was "still not particularly worried about a recession. In our view, a growth slowdown is necessary to 'land the plane' and the two key historical risk factors – inflationary overheating and asset market bubbles – remain largely absent."
    • Regarding rate increases: "We now see a probability-weighted 1.2 hikes in all of 2019, from 1.6 hikes previously… Nevertheless, our forecast remains above market pricing, which implies a stable funds rate in 2019 and cuts in 2020."
    • Wolfe Research sticks with a bullish view on Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC -0.1%) due to the company's free cash flow and capital deployment potential.
    • "Remarkably, on our estimates VAC's four-year free cash flow yield (2019E-2022E) now stands at 65%. We expect all of that cash to be returned to shareholders," updates Wolfe.
    • Marriott Vacations sits near the low end of its 52-week trading range of $60.68 to $154.14.

    Height Capital Markets defends PG&E

    • Height Capital Markets updates on the developments with Pacific Gas & Electric (NYSE:PCG) and the California wildfires charges.
    • The firm thinks California Attorney General Xavier Becerra took a milder stance than some of the media headlines on potential murder charges are indicating this morning.
    • Height's take on the California AG: "He emphasized that his office offered no opinion regarding PCG’s criminal negligence or recklessness – only a summary of the charges they would face if found criminally culpable. With the AG’s brief out of the way, we are looking towards 2019 for the release of the much-anticipated Tubbs fire report from CalFire."
    • Last week, Citi defended PG&E by noting that structural changes forced on the company could lower future risk.
    • Previously: PG&E may face charges in California wildfires (Dec. 31)
    • PCG -4.35% premarket to $22.85.

    Slight rise seen for Dec. U.S. auto sales

    • Edmunds forecasts U.S. auto sales will edge up 0.3% in December to 1,607,724 new vehicles for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17.4M. Fleet transactions are expected to account for 16% of sales.
    • "Automakers are really pulling out all the stops in December to close the year on a high note, and car shoppers seem to be in a buying mood," notes Edmunds manager Jeremy Acevedo, although he does caution on reading too much into the positive month. "Automakers continue to rely heavily on upping fleet sales to mask eroding retail demand, and that's not a sustainable place to be. A record number of lessees returning to the market should help give dealers a boost in the New Year, but rising interest rates and vehicle costs are going to continue to give car shoppers pause and create uncertainty in the market," he notes.
    • Edmunds December forecast by manufacturer: General Motors (NYSE:GM) -3.6% Y/Y to 298K units, Toyota (NYSE:TM) -1.3% to 220K, Ford (NYSE:F) -9.5% to 218K, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (NYSE:FCAU) +16% to 200K, Honda (NYSE:HMC) -1.9% to 147K, Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) -6% to 130K, Hyundia/Kia (OTCPK:HYMLF) +8% to 115K, Volkswagen/Audi (OTCPK:VWAGY) -4.0% to 55K, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) 19K.
    • Auto sales are due to be reported on January 3.
    • Related ETF: CARZ.
    • Driverless and auto tech will take up 300K square feet of floor space at CES, which formally starts on January 8. But a new Bloomberg Businessweek report discusses how far the industry is from a truly self-driving vehicle.
    • Bloomberg cites Waymo's (NASDAQ:GOOGL) soft robo-taxi launch with the service only available to 400 families in Phoenix and the vehicles always having a safety driver in the front seat.
    • Matthew Johnson-Roberson, co-director of the University of Michigan’s Ford Center for Autonomous Vehicles, on Waymo's launch: “It’s a pretty glaring indication that we’re not there yet."
    • GM (NYSE:GM) wants to launch its automated ride-hail service in a U.S. city in 2019. Ford (NYSE:F) hopes to have tens of thousands of self-drivers on the streets of multiple cities by 2021.
    • But Visteon CEO Sachin Lawande says there's a "new realization" it could take until 2025 or longer for truly driverless vehicles.
    • Casinos in Nevada reported that gaming win revenue increased 6.4% Y/Y in November to $967.2M.
    • Revenue on the Las Vegas Strip jumped 10% to $534M off a comparison impacted by the shooting last year at the Mandalay Bay. Downtown LV casino revenue rose 2.2% Y/Y to $55M. Boulder Strip revenue fell 12% Y/Y to $64M.
    • Total slots revenue rose 1.3% to $635M during the month off a win percentage of 6.9%.
    • Games and tables revenue was up 17.7% to $332M off a win percentage of 12.6%. Baccarat win was up 51% Y/Y.
    • Football gaming win was up 69% during the month at sports books.
    • Union Gaming analyst John DeCree calls the November numbers from the Strip even better than expected. "Baccarat bounced back over the past two months, up about 16% QTD in spite of unusually low hold in October. Sports betting win also bounced back, facing an easy comp to last November," he notes.
    • Nevada Gaming Control Board full report (.pdf)

    Nike steams into 2019

    • Shares of Nike (NYSE:NKE) are up 0.7% as the athletic apparel stock looks very likely to end the year as the third best-performing Dow stock of the year.
    • Investors have latched on to the broad strength across brands at Nike and for the most part backed the company's decision to embrace Colin Kaepernick and reset of the corporate culture.
    • Wall Street expects the Nike momentum to continue in 2019, with the average price target on Nike standing at $86.68. Oppenheimer is on the high end with a PT of $90. "We are increasingly confident that a now better operating model is not only helping to drive stronger results currently, but also allowing NKE to distance further from an ever widening competitive set," writes analyst Brian Nagel. "Clear indications of better sales in the US and elsewhere, including China, should help to comfort investors increasingly worried about the potential for macro slowdown," he adds.
    • Canada Goose's first store in China outside of Hong Kong is drawing huge crowds since opening on Friday, according to local reports.
    • The launch of the Beijing store was delayed by about two weeks due to construction work, not political considerations as some have speculated.
    • Shares of Canada Goose are up 5.91% in premarket trading to $44.25.
    • U.S. toy sales fell at a high-single digit percentage in the fourth quarter, according to UBS data, with the two weeks before Christmas failing to provide as big a lift as it did in previous years.
    • Retailers like Target (NYSE:TGT), Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) fought hard for sales, but the loss of Toys "R" Us was in some ways an irreplaceable force in the industry.
    • The results may prove worse at Hasbro (NASDAQ:HAS) and Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT), although the latter's Barbie sales were "surprisingly robust."

    Epic Games takes on Apple and Google

    • "Fortnite" creator Epic Games is launching its own app store that will let developers keep 88% of revenue compared to the 70% for the app stores from Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL).
    • Epic's store went live earlier this month with PC and Mac games, which caused rival Steam to adjust its pricing to remain competitive. Epic plans to start selling Android games in 2019.
    • App stores account for about 5% of total annual revenue for Apple and Google, according to Visibly Alpha data, but the margins are much higher since the companies don't carry any of the app costs.

    Bird Box lift for Netflix

    • Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) is up 1.85% in premarket trading after Friday's late afternoon tweet on huge streaming numbers for Bird Box.
    • While the company is taking on some criticism for its limited approach to releasing viewership data and historical discrepancies with Nielsen numbers, there is no question that Bird Box is a trending topic on various social media platforms.
    • Some digging by The Verge indicates that at least 45M people watched at least 70% of the supernatural thriller. That number could be significantly higher considering friends and family may have watched the show together. The Hollywood Reporter's Daniel Feinberg isn't quite so positive. "I’m fairly sure Bird Box is a phenomenon of some sort, but without verifiable data or comparative data for context, a Netflix-affiliated Twitter feed coming down from on-high with suspiciously specific (and yet entirely vague) data is the epitome of nonsense," he tweeted.
    • Shares of Netflix are up 33% YTD.

    Amazon targets rural India market

    • Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZNturns to local help as it builds a logistics network targeting rural India and 800M people with little access to retailers.
    • The potential customer base has little access to smartphones, credit cards, or a reliable and efficient postal system.
    • Amazon has created package depots in small local stores and enlisted other retailers as learning centers for potential Amazon shoppers.
    • Amazon started its India operations in 2013 and later pledged $5B in investments in the region including warehouses and logistics.
    • Barclays data shows Amazon passed Walmart-owned Flipkart this year in gross merchandise volume.
    • Having failed to broker a deal on a digital tax during its EU presidency, Austria said it plans to introduce its own levy on tech companies including Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) while the bloc works out its plan.
    • Austria's six-month tenure of the rotating presidency ends Tuesday, when the role will pass to Romania.
    • France has also announced plans to tax tech giants at a national level from 2019 if EU states cannot reach an agreement.

  14.  Well, so much for that rally. Apparently I’m not the only one that realizes nobody was confirming Trump’s BS.  


  15. Thoughts on NG?

    Seems cheap, but weather pattern looks warm?


  16. These tweets are simply counter-productive now – won't save a horrible year anyway.




  17. Hi Fellow members,
    Just still a few words before I will part for the year to our camp New Year’s celebration.
    Remember I am 6 hours ahead of most of you.
    Looking back, yes we did lose quite a few pounds not in weight but in our portfolios. I hope some did read my comments on armchair trading.
    Still feels comfortable even most stocks have gone lower with the market. But I hope we can reverse Newton’s Law and say what goes down will go up and remember if you still hold the stock you have only a paper loss and hopefully the div. will come flowing in at the same pace.
    After we see the end of the tunnel, in the New Year we can carefully start selling OTM calls against out stocks. I guess we again have learned our lesson of selling puts, yes they need to be cash secured! And if you now do not like the stock for the strike price you sold the put, you just have to pay the difference or better roll out to a more likable strike price.
    With that said I am off with my wife to the Silvester party. To all of you I do wish a happy, prosperous and healthy New Year, with the exception of one, you who I mean.
    Look after yourselves and I hope we will hear from each other next coming year again.
    Yodi


  18. Wow.. the first thing didn't work so now they say they have a budget and up we go again! 


  19. Happy New Year Yodi!


  20. Bonds not buying the rally again. Shorting a little /NQ.


  21. Yodi- sounds like great fun!! Enjoy your commentaries and after the new year arrives I am going to do some of your armchair trades.  Best wishes to you and yours in 2019!!


  22. Happy New Year to you all, and Yodi, say hi to the Silvesters for me  ;)


  23. happy new year yodi and psw


  24. Happy and Healthy New Year to all !


  25. p.p1 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 14.0px ‘Comic Sans MS’; -webkit-text-stroke: #000000}
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    Happy NY to all!

    Survived my first ever margin call  :|  

    So bought back my 20 AAPL 140 calls at 1.68, still good profit.

     

    Any suggestions for adjusting the upcoming bc spread?

    (Thinking maybe it’s not worth buying back these close $175 calls with AAPL <160):

     

    Long 20 AAPL Jan/19 150c

    Short 20 AAPL Jan/19 175c

     

    Also have the SQQQ spread as suggested:

     

    Long 80 SQQQ Mar/19 $15c

    Short 80 SQQQ Mar/19 $22c

     

    Should we adjust these or wait until we’re closer to expiries?

     

    Thanks.


  26. Wing

    AAPL roll 150 Jan 19 to 140 Jan 21 for 29.40 and sell half (10) Jan 21 200 call for 14.25. Leave Jan 19 175 at present possible expries.


  27. CO2 footprints, I think a lot of that is driven by certain geographic / economic factors 

    for instance, in Canada you need AC half the year and heating half the year because its freezing, much of the population has to drive cars aside from those in major cities using public transport. These things take a lot of energy. 

    Likewise in india much of the population is poor /rural and cant afford AC /cars. Given the economic opportunity Im sure they're numbers would rise.

    ….or maybe im just trying to rationalize being Canadian haha


  28. Phil / Board – Thoughts on BPY? Happy New Year to everyone from the Big Apple!!!


  29. Also – on a 100K portfolio is the SQQQ by itself enough of a hedge or would you recommend adding some TZA or DXD into that mix? From what I understand from reading dialogue on the board, you basically want to protect yourself from, say a 10-20% drop. So in order to protect yourself from a 10% drop, you only need to purchase around $3400 worth of SQQQ, correct? Assuming we got a sudden 10% drop, the SQQQ's would now be worth 3X the $3400, so $10,200? Is this correct logic?


  30. Happy New Year to all!  Thanks Phil, Yodi, Winston and all others who have helped navigate this volatile year.  Wishing 2019 to be better than 2018 for all PSW members!


  31. Hi Phil,  Natural Gas is getting cheap again.  What do you think about selling UNG puts to pay for an additional SQQQ hedge?  The advantage is that UNG short puts are low margin, and given the market drop-off I am margin-challenged right now.  What do you think the outlook on natural gas is in general right now?  Thanks and Happy New Year!


  32. PS:  Regarding my previous question, I know that you favor selling Apple puts to pay for SQQQ spreads, but I have a fair number of Apple short puts and am looking to spread the risk around a bit.  I am thinking of selling the Jan 2019 19 UNG puts to pay for additional SQQQ spreads.  Thanks again.


  33. Thanks Yodi.

    Can roll the 150 AAPL /19 calls to the 140 /21s but won't let me sell the 10 AAPL /21 200calls while I still have the /19 short 175c's with the margin I have.  Would have 10 more shorts than I have long .. 

    If I wait until the 175's expire Jan 18th, then it would work ok ..   might  get a better price for them too .. 

    What do you think?


  34. Happy New Year everyone ! ! !

    Phil, thank you for all that you do.

    Great group of folks on PSW !


  35. Just got back from a nice lunch, looks like things are holding steady.

    /NG/Sun – I like /NGN19 (next July) as a long-term play but I wouldn't want to guess what happens day to day in the winter.  

    Quite the collapse!  We cashed out at $4.50 as that was our 2020 goal but I never expected this kind of pullback.  We need to re-examine our premise before jumping back in but I am picking up 2 contracts down here ($2.78 on /NGN19) as it might pop back fast. 

    Happy New Year Yodi and everyone else with the sense to leave early!  cheeky

    Margin/Wing – Congrats!  Yodi's roll is good on AAPL.  As to SQQQ, we sold our longs and added 2020 bull call spreads to cover the short calls but watch the margin on that as the short March $22s would be considered naked short without PM.

    Canadian/Crs – Well many factors but mostly for you guys it's your sand oil industry, massive CO2 emitters.  

    BPY/Soma – Not one I have looked at recently but generally a good REIT with a nice 8% payout at this very low price.  I think they are worth more than watching so, in the LTP, we should sell 10 of the 2021 $17.50 puts for $4.20 so we lock in a $13.30 entry on 1,000 shares as a good start.  The dividend is $1.26 so we're collecting 3 years worth of dividends up front and we don't have to hedge.  

    SQQQ/Soma – Well just buying SQQQ doesn't do it, it depends on your spread and, of course, if you have a spread, it may not actually pay off right away as the short puts can go up faster than your long puts.  That's why we like to have a variety of dates and ETFs to hedge with.  SQQQ itself will go up about 30% (not exact correlation) in a 10% Nas drop so $3,400 becomes $4,420.  

    With SQQQ at $17, x 1.3 would be $22 so we look at the June $14 ($5)/20 ($3) bull call spread at net $2 which pays $6 if SQQQ is over $20 in June so $3,000 pays $9,000 for a $6,000 gain but, if we recover, you won't get paid but, presumably, your longs are back shape so it won't matter.  You are starting out $4,500 in the money at $17 so you don't lose unless QQQ goes up.

    UNG/John – Lots of decay on them so I don't generally play but $2.80 for the 2021 $20s is very tempting.  As noted above, long-term, I think exports will keep prices high but, short-term, it's a weather game.  Also, keep in mind, you don't HAVE to sell puts against hedges – it should really only be done when there is something you REALLY want to buy (and can afford) if it gets cheaper.


  36. Happy New Year Phil and the rest of the Gang hope next year is good to all of you.  Have a sage and Happy New Year's Eve.

     

     I'm waiting to close out this year and get my mark-to-market numbers and then done for the year.  then I'm out of here.


  37. Happy New Year and Good Health Everyone!


  38. @all- Have a happy and healthy 2019!

    Thank you Phil!


  39. Thanks Phil!


  40. Happy new year indeed – it's been a good one! 


  41. Here's to a happy, healthy and wealthy New Year – looking forward to 2019!

    All the best, 

    - Phil


  42. Sent you all good wishes for the upcoming year and thanks for the wisdom and it wouldn't post it!!! Too many posts it said? Anyways I reiterate "Have a safe and wonderful new year."


  43. Last 5 minutes and it is sinking!! Down and down.


  44. Wish you all a kickass 2019!


  45. well that's that

    hopefully I sold the right stuff to optimize my taxes

    New Year's resolution is to eliminate the swing for the fences trades

    And also I think that sometimes the price you get for selling puts should be a warning sign

    Overall I learned alot this year (some lessons more pricey than others : )

    Happy New Year


  46. Visualizing 2019: Trends to Watch





  47. Corporate Debt Is Reaching Record Levels






  48. Humming U.S. Factories End 2018 on a Sour Note



  49. Happy and Healthy New Year to the entire PSW family!


  50. time to check in on my official 2018 predictions:

    1) The market would close lower than it opened, and

    2) Volatility would be higher

    2017/18 DOW: 24,719 to 23,327 (check)

    2017/18 VIX: 11.04 to 25.42 (check)

    Next year down -40% sometime over the course of the year. Volatility will sky rocket but I think it'll be lower at the 2019 close than it is now. For the record, the Dow has to hit 13,996.48 in order for me to be right. I fully plan on being right.

    On to new year's resolutions: some idiot on Quora is trying to convince me military spending is not socialism. My resolution is to stop talking to idiots on the internet. Enough of this. My twitter word of the year is "initiate." I have some things I want to do and it is time.

    Happy New Years to all. I hope the 2019 rings in some grand times and high profits.

    - BDC


  51. Happy New Year 

    And better trading in 2019


  52. Happy New Year to Phil and his family and to everyone one this board and their families. Wishing everyone a prosperous 2019!



  53. Happy New Year to everyone in this group. Have learned a tremendous amount from you all in 2018. This is the kind of knowledge that will be passed down through generations! Wishing everyone a very prosperous, peaceful, and healthy 2019.


  54. Magic Kingdom closed (too many people).  I’m in Epcot and it’s a madhouse, never seen it this crowded. 

    Every restaurant booked all week, hotels totally full..,

    Buy DIS!!!


  55. Happy New Yearto all PSW’ers!

    Thanks to Phil, Stj, Yodi and all others for contributions.

    Me?, I am sad….2018 was soooo good, I don’t want it to end…..just kidding!….I will pray for Trump shenanigans to subside at least, if not end!


  56. Happy New Year to all. Great contributions, questions, ideas, and answers throughout the year. Long may it continue. I wish all members that they have their best year ever in 2019!







  57. Brazil Has an Idea to Fix Rampant Gun Violence: More Guns – WSJ








  58. The hottest jobs going into 2019







  59. Happy New Year to everyone.