Archive for 2018

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Apple Suppliers Tumble After Report Tim Cook “Secretly” Developing Own Screen

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

There is one way to assure that your supply chain is not impacted by the upcoming trade wars: bring all your manufacturing to the host nation and no longer rely on foreign suppliers.

That’s precisely what Apple appears to be doing because in a move that may cause a dramatic shake-up among the key vendors to the world’s biggest company, Bloomberg reports that Apple is designing and producing its own device displays for the first time, using a secret manufacturing facility near its Cupertino headquarter to make small numbers of the screens for testing purposes; if successful the numbers will grow far bigger.

In the latest indication that Tim Cook wants to eliminate any supply bottlenecks, and really, any suppliers – recall the historic crash of Dialog Semi which plunged the most in 16 years after a report that Apple would bring its power-management chip production in house – the tech giant is making a significant investment in the development of next-generation MicroLED screens, according to Bloomnerg sources.  MicroLED screens use different light-emitting compounds than the current OLED displays and promise to make future gadgets slimmer, brighter and less power-hungry.

Since MicroLED screens are more difficult to produce than OLED displays, not to mention expensive, the company almost killed the project a year or so ago, but since then engineers have been making progress and the technology is now at an advanced stage, though consumers will probably have to wait a few years before seeing the results.

Bloomberg adds that, as noted above, this ambitious undertaking “is the latest example of Apple bringing the design of key components in-house.” And while the company has designed chips powering its mobile devices for several years (see Dialog) its move into displays has the long-term potential to hurt a range of suppliers, from screen makers like Samsung Electronics Co., Japan Display Inc., Sharp Corp. and LG Display Co. to companies like Synaptics Inc. that produce chip-screen interfaces. It may also hurt Universal Display Corp., a leading developer of OLED technology.

As one would expect, the stocks of several key Apple suppliers have been whacked early in the Asian session, with Japan Display dropping as much as 4.4%, Sharp tumbling up to 3.3%, Samsung sliding 1.4% and BOE Technology Group down 2.7%.

Analysts, especially Apple bulls, are…
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The Bond Market Hits A Tipping Point: What That Means For Stocks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

When we earlier discussed the unwillingness of institutional investors to return to the market even as retail investors swing from one mood extreme to another, we showed a chart showing the historical and seemingly relentless selling by virtually every investor class in the past decade, which left just one question for traders: when do the stock buybacks finally stop and put an end to the party?

Answering that question would also require the response to another, far bigger question: when does the bond market stall out, or in other words, when does the endless demand for yield finally fizzle out?

For anyone to claim they have the definitive answer would be folly: after all there have been so many prior occasions in which analysts and pundits declared the end of the all consuming bond bid, only to be mocked by investors gorging on even more corporate debt.  And yet based on recent bond sales, it appears that finally investors may be getting full.

But how is that possible? Just two weeks ago there was an unprecedented $100 billion in bids for CVS’s gargantuan  9-part $40 billion IG deal?

Well, as Bloomberg reported recently, in a first indication that the saturation point is approaching, there have been far fewer orders coming in for new bonds, relative to what’s for sale. This has resulted in bond-selling companies paying more interest compared with their other debt, according to Bloomberg data, and once the securities start trading, prices have been falling on more than 50% of new issues, an indication that “flipping” bonds for a profit is now only profitable half the time. And flipping for a profit, or loss – as any bond trader knows – is a well-known leading indicator to the overall strength of the bond market.

This, as Bloomberg notes, is also the latest signal following weeks of declining inflows and even occasional fund outflows, that the IG debt market is losing steam and may be approaching its tipping point after years of torrid gains, amid concerns about rising rates and talk of tariffs weighing on corporate profits.

“Investors are starting to be a little more disciplined,” said Neuberger Berman PM Bob Summers. “They aren’t just waving in every deal now.”

To be sure, investors’ restraint amounts to…
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Jack Vogel On Quantitative Value & Momentum Investing

By Sure Dividend. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Our most recent podcast interview is with Jack Vogel, the CFO and CIO of Alpha Architect – a quantitative factor-based investing firm that invests client money using empirically-verified strategies like the value effect and the momentum effect. Along with performing financial research and managing client money, his firm also has an excellent suite of tools for evidence-based investing.


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Today’s conversation is with Jack Vogel, the CFO and CIO of Alpha Architect – a quantitative factor-based investing firm that invests client money using empirically-verified strategies like the value effect and the momentum effect.

Jack has a PhD from Drexel University and has an interesting mix of an academic’s knowledge and a practitioner’s experience. What really stands out about this conversation is his intellectual curiosity and his commitment to do the right thing for his customers – which means compounding capital at high rates on an after-tax basis over long periods of time.

Our conversation is wide-ranging and discusses everything from behavioral finance to security analysis to his firm’s research methodology. Please enjoy my conversation with Jack Vogel.

Interested in more episodes of the podcast? Check out the Sure Investing Podcast website: www.sureinvesting.co

Alternatively, check out the Sure Dividend website to learn more about my firm’s research efforts: www.suredividend.com/research/


You can access the interview at the following podcast listening mediums:

Thanks,

Nick McCullum

Sure Dividend

ValueWalk readers can click here to instantly access an exclusive $100 discount on Sure Dividend’s premium online course Invest Like The Best, which contains a case-study-based investigation of how 6 of the world’s best investors beat the market over time.

The post Jack Vogel On Quantitative Value & Momentum Investing appeared first on ValueWalk.

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Bitcoin Soars $1000 Off The Lows After G-20 Rejects Crypto Crackdown

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

While advertising bans and Mt.Gox Trustee overhangs remain, the FUD of a possible global regulatory crackdown in the G-20 Communique was a major driver of this weekend's weakness… until Les Echos confirms FSB has rejected calls for regulation.

After headlines suggesting a global crackdown on cryptocurrencies spooked the markets on Friday, Reuters reports that the global watchdog will pivot more toward reviewing existing rules and away from designing new ones, resisting calls from some G20 members to regulate cryptocurrencies like bitcoin.

The reaction was immediate as a relief rally – on heavy volume – sent Bitcoin $1000 higher, erasing Friday's losses…

Interest in cryptocurrencies surged last year as prices rocketed only to tumble in recent months, triggering warnings from regulators. But in a sign of too little consensus for radical action, Reuters reports that the FSB said more international coordination was needed to plug data gaps in monitoring the rapidly evolving but still tiny sector worth less than 1 percent of global GDP at its peak.

“The FSB’s initial assessment is that crypto-assets do not pose risks to global financial stability at this time,” FSB Chair Mark Carney said in a letter to G20 central bankers and finance ministers who will meet in Buenos Aires on Monday and Tuesday.

All major cryptocurrencies are rallying on the news…





Retail Investors Are “The Marginal Buyer Of Equities Again” As Institutions Resume Liquidation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One week after US stock funds suffered “massive” outflows, on Friday BofA reported that a record $43.3 billion had been put into equities “as investors shrugged off trade war risks that had initially sent stocks reeling”, even as those very risks returned in the subsequent week and pressured the S&P lower on four out of five consecutive days.

The record inflow also came one week after JPMorgan warned that based on the recent “erratic behavior of retail investors… and the spreading of equity ETF outflows out to non-US equities” the idea that retail investors will serve as the marginal buyer of equities in the current environment was in jeopardy, “especially after buying an unprecedented $100bn of equity ETFs in only one month during January.”

Not for long though, because as we reported on Saturday, just hours after BofA was “stunned” by the record “wall of money” flooding into stocks, JPMorgan was as well, and in his latest “Flows and Liquidity” note, JPM’s Nick Panigirtzoglou wrote that “equity ETFs saw a very big inflow of $34bn this week (Monday to Thursday). This is by far the highest weekly equity ETF flow ever, driven almost entirely by US equity ETFs.”

“Equity ETFs saw a very big inflow of $34bn this week (Monday to Thursday). This is by far the highest weekly equity ETF flow ever, driven almost entirely by US equity ETFs.” – JPM pic.twitter.com/0o0cM4mouQ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 17, 2018

According to JPM, this means that “there is little doubt that, following an interruption in February, retail investors have resumed their equity ETF buying in March” at least until the market’s next sharp swoon.”

There was more good news. Recall that 2 weeks ago we reported that according to Morgan Stanley, market liquidity defined as the available size at the top of the book in the US equity futures market – i.e. how many futures can trade without impacting price – had tumbled to near record lows, and failed to rebound since the February volocaust.

Not anymore though because at the same time as retail investors resumed their equity ETF buying, emerging as the marginal buyer of equities again,” JPM found that “equity market liquidity appears to…
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Expiration Spikes Volume but Markets Flat

Courtesy of Declan

There wasn't much to be said about the gains or losses from Friday but volume spiked which disguised the intention of either bulls or bears. Friday's flat action probably best suits bulls as it marks a stall in selling losses.

The S&P is resting on rising support with just On-Balance-Volume on a 'sell' trigger.
 


The Nasdaq is on a 'bull trap' but it's close enough to suggest it hasn't yet fully confirmed the 'bull trap'. Buyers have a decent opportunity with stops (risk measure) going on a loss of 7,463.
 


The Nasdaq 100 took a small loss but it too sits on support - support which is also a convergence with former channel resistance now support.
 


The Semiconductor Index hasn't the same vulnerabilities as either the Nasdaq or Nasdaq 100 but is well above nearest support and may offer an entry opportunity for bulls.  Ideally, I would like to see the index at 1,393 before committing but swing trading a break of Friday's high/low with a stop on the flip side covers both sides of the trade.
 


The Russell 2000 looks to have mapped an excellent pullback with Friday's gain offering the best of the day's action. Relative performance is on the verge of a new 'buy' signal which fits nicely with other bullish technicals.
 


Keep an eye on the ratio of new highs to new lows. The past month has been a bit of a speed wobble but if this is building to a workable swing low then more losses are required.
 


For tomorrow, watch for a bounce play in the indices but if things go pear shaped then hard-and-fast would be best to build a more sustainable bottom.
 





Why The Police Are Quietly Turning To Google To Find Criminals

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following this weekend’s revelation that Cambridge Analytica, a polling and analytics firm partly funded by billionaire Trump donor Robert Mercer, Democrats have renewed their cries for increased oversight of tech companies like Facebook, Twitter and Google to monitor whether they are being responsible stewards of the reams of personal data that Americans and people all around the world fork over to them on a daily basis.

But one issue that has fallen by the wayside as lawmakers have zeroed in on talk about so-called “Russian interference” is how do Facebook, Google and their ilk protect US citizens’ civil liberties from unlawful search and seizure?

As it turns out, they don’t – at least, not really.

Google

As North Carolina TV station WRAL points out in a recent expose, Law enforcement are becoming more aggressive in requesting data gleaned from individuals’ cellphones when they’re investigating major crimes like murder, rape and arson – even when these requests are unjustifiably broad-based by the standards of applying for search warrants.

In one controversial technique that’s increasingly being employed in these types of investigations, police draw a perimeter around the area where a crime – like a murder, for example – occurred. They then apply (and typically receive approval) for a search warrant to collect the data from all smart phones that crossed into the perimeter around the time that the crime allegedly occurred.

WRAL uses the example of two shootings that happened on opposite sides of the city years apart. Detectives on each case used this controversial new technique, which involves requesting the metadata from any nearby phones months or even years after the crimes occurred.

Google

But constitutional lawyers are raising legal objections to this technique, which they say allows for repeated unjustified infringement on the rights of innocent individuals who just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time…

Raleigh police say the cases are unrelated. But in March 2017, months after investigations began into both shootings, separate detectives on each case, one day apart, employed an innovative strategy in criminal investigations.

On a satellite image, they drew shapes around the crime scenes, marking the coordinates on the map. Then they convinced a Wake County judge they had enough probable cause to order Google to hand over account identifiers


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Are Bitcoin Bubbles Predictable?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Tobias Huber via Hackernoon.com,

A Fundamental Valuation of Bitcoin and a Diagnostic for Bitcoin Bubbles

Visualization of the bitcoin price

Spencer Wheatley, Didier Sornette, Tobias A. Huber, Max Reppen, Robert N. Gantner  –  based on our recently published paper.

Since its release in 2008 by Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin has grown tremendously, and cryptocurrencies have become an emerging asset class. At the end of 2017, the price of bitcoin peaked at almost 20’000 USD, but now sits at around 8’500 USD. The explosive growth and volatility of bitcoin has intensified debates about the cryptocurrency’s intrinsic or fundamental value.

While many have claimed that bitcoin is a scam and its value will eventually fall to zero, others believe that further enormous growth and adoption await, often comparing it to the market capitalization of stores of value, such as gold. By comparing bitcoin to gold — an analogy that is based on the digital scarcity that is built into the Bitcoin protocol — some market analysts predicted bitcoin prices as a high as 10 million USD per bitcoin. Given bitcoin’s wild trajectory, many are wondering where it will go next.

While there is an emerging academic literature on cryptocurrency valuations, which, for example, attributes some technical feature of the Bitcoin protocol, such as the “proof-of-work” system, as bitcoin’s source of value, an alternative valuation can be based on its network of users — the more users/nodes it has, the more valuable the network becomes. In the 1980s, Metcalfe proposed that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of nodes.

Now, if Metcalfe’s law holds here, fundamental valuation of bitcoin may in fact be easier than valuation of equities  – which relies on various multiples, such as price-to-earnings, price-to-book, or price-to-cash-flow ratios  –  and might, therefore, be indicative of bubbles.

Here, we develop a diagnostic for bubbles and crashes in bitcoin that combines Metcalfe’s law  –  which will provide a fundamental value for bitcoin — and the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model, which has been developed to detect bubbles. When both measures coincide, this provides a convincing indication of a bubble and impending correction. For more details, see our paper.

A Fundamental Valuation of Bitcoin

Metcalfe’s law states that the value, in this case market capitalization (cap) of a network is proportional to the number of users squared  – i.e., relating
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Goldilocks R.I.P. (Part 2)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

Goldilocks is a conceit of monetary central planning and its erroneous predicate that falsifying financial asset prices is the route to prosperity.

In fact, it only leads to immense and unstable financial bubbles which eventually crash – monkey-hammering the purported Goldilocks Economy as they do.

It also leads to a complete corruption of the economic and financial narrative on both ends of the Acela Corridor.

To wit, the Fed’s serial financial bubbles on Wall Street are falsely celebrated as arising from a booming main street economy. In fact, they are an economic dagger that bleeds it of investment and cash and exposes it to “restructuring” mayhem from the C-suites when the egregious inflation of share prices and stock option values finally gets crushed by another financial meltdown.

In this context, the Washington Post (WaPo) is out this morning with brutal takedown of our friend Larry Kudlow for his ebullient whistling past the graveyard on the eve of the financial crisis and Great Recession. It would be an understatement to say he didn’t see it coming, but it’s also completely unfair not to acknowledge that 95% of Wall Street and 100% of the FOMC were equally bubble-blind.

In fact, when Larry Kudlow waxed eloquently in a piece in the National Review about the awesome economy the George Bush Administration had produced in December 2007, he was just delivering the Wall Street consensus forecast for the coming year:

 There’s no recession coming. The pessimistas were wrong. It’s not going to happen. At a bare minimum, we are looking at Goldilocks 2.0. (And that’s a minimum). Goldilocks is alive and well. The Bush boom is alive and well. It’s finishing up its sixth consecutive year with more to come. Yes, it’s still the greatest story never told…….In fact, we are about to enter the seventh consecutive year of the Bush boom.

Well, not exactly. The worst recession since the 1930s actually incepted that very month and 10 months latter came Washington’s hair-on-fire moment when the monetary and fiscal spigots were opened far wider than ever before— bailing out everything that was collapsing, tottering, moving or even standing still.

Still, Kudlow (like most of Wall Street) was not about to give up on his love affair with Goldilocks until she positively betrayed him. Thus, by February 2008 when the economic clouds were gathering, Kudlow insisted that,

Maybe we are going


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Zero Hedge

Auto Shares Surge As Fiat, Renault Confirm Merger Talks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With President Trump in Japan for a state visit and most of Europe headed to the polls to vote in the quinquennial EU Parliamentary elections, there was enough news to keep market watchers occupied during what was supposed to be a quiet holiday weekend in the US. 

But on top of these political headlines, on Saturday afternoon, the news broke that Italian-American carmaker Fiat Chrysler had approached France's Renault with a merger proposal that would leave the shareholders of each carmaker with half of the combined company, in a tie-up that would create the world's third-largest au...



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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons

 

Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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