Archive for 2018

Lynch, Bezos, Capital Allocation And Dividend Investing

By Sure Dividend. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Sure Dividend’s goal is to reach as many people as possible about the advantages of investing in high quality dividend growth stocks for the long run.


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The channel covers the same topics as the Sure Dividend website, just in video instead of in writing.  You can see 3 of our most recent videos at the links below:



We’re planning on developing useful investing content throughout 2018 focused on:

  • Investing tutorials
  • Case studies
  • Analysis of individual dividend stocks
  • The investment strategies used by the world’s greatest investors

The best way to stay in touch with this content is by subscribing to our Youtube channel here, and enabling video notifications (which you can do by clicking ‘subscribe’ and then clicking the bell icon which will appear next).

If you have any video requests, please email them to support@suredividend.com.  We look forward to hearing from you!

Thanks,

Ben Reynolds

Sure Dividend


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Weekly Market Recap Feb 18, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

BOO YAH! Now that’s more like it!  Your regularly scheduled non stop up market returned this past week with a “5 for 5” week (all 5 days up).  Three of those days were >1% so it was a return of the bulls.  That said to return to the “Trump market” we need to get back to almost no volatility and incremental up days of 0.3% or so 80% of the time.   We noted in last week’s recap the NYSE McClellan Oscillator was still VERY oversold so a “snapback rally” was still on the docket.  That was quite a snapback rally!  So the “easy part” of the bounce just happened – now we will see if we are going to return to a more volatile future or go right back to the sleepy market that tacks on a little 4 out of 5 days.

For the week the S&P 500 gained 4.3% in its best week since January 2013, while the NASDAQ ended up 5.3% in its best weekly percentage gain since December 2011.  Remember that strategist talking “death spiral” last week …. probably related to the people who said Brexit would mean the end of life on earth as we know it a few years ago.

“This is a year of recalibration. In January we recalibrated to higher earnings, and now we’re doing it for higher bond yields, which have been led by potentially higher inflation,” said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer of BNY Mellon Wealth Management. “Market participants are correctly focusing on inflation, because a rise in inflation can preface an economic slowdown, or an increase in interest rates that could lead to one.”

Another stat about how ridiculous 2017 was in terms of volatility.

Less than halfway through February, the market has already matched the number of 1% moves seen over all of 2017.   Last year, there were four days with a gain of 1% for the S&P (not including sessions like Aug. 22, when the index technically closed 0.99% higher),


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Weekly Market Recap Feb 18, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

BOO YAH! Now that’s more like it!  Your regularly scheduled non stop up market returned this past week with a “5 for 5” week (all 5 days up).  Three of those days were >1% so it was a return of the bulls.  That said to return to the “Trump market” we need to get back to almost no volatility and incremental up days of 0.3% or so 80% of the time.   We noted in last week’s recap the NYSE McClellan Oscillator was still VERY oversold so a “snapback rally” was still on the docket.  That was quite a snapback rally!  So the “easy part” of the bounce just happened – now we will see if we are going to return to a more volatile future or go right back to the sleepy market that tacks on a little 4 out of 5 days.

For the week the S&P 500 gained 4.3% in its best week since January 2013, while the NASDAQ ended up 5.3% in its best weekly percentage gain since December 2011.  Remember that strategist talking “death spiral” last week …. probably related to the people who said Brexit would mean the end of life on earth as we know it a few years ago.

“This is a year of recalibration. In January we recalibrated to higher earnings, and now we’re doing it for higher bond yields, which have been led by potentially higher inflation,” said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer of BNY Mellon Wealth Management. “Market participants are correctly focusing on inflation, because a rise in inflation can preface an economic slowdown, or an increase in interest rates that could lead to one.”

Another stat about how ridiculous 2017 was in terms of volatility.

Less than halfway through February, the market has already matched the number of 1% moves seen over all of 2017.   Last year, there were four days with a gain of 1% for the S&P (not including sessions like Aug. 22, when the index technically closed 0.99% higher),


continue reading





Only 73% OF Americans Are “Likely To Adhere To The Law”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Many factors influence how effectively a government is able to uphold the rule of law and some of them include access to courts, lack of corruption, effective policing and institutional competence.

While some governments are able to combine these efficiently, resulting in strong adherence to the law, Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes that others tend to struggle.

Research from The World Justice Project measured rule of law adherence in 113 countries around the world, focusing on eight factors: constraints on government powers, absence of corruption, open government, fundamental rights, order and security, regulatory enforcement, civil justice, and criminal justice.

Infographic: Where People Are Most & Least Likely To Adhere To The Law  | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Since 2016, 34 percent of countries saw their rule of law decline, 20 percent improved and 37 percent stayed the same.

Western Europe dominates the top of the ranking with Scandinavia first in the world for adherence to the law. Denmark and Norway were top with a score of 0.89, followed by Finland and Sweden with 0.87 and 0.86 respectively.

Outside Europe, New Zealand, Canada and Australia also made the top-10 while the U.S. came 19th with a score of 0.73.

Venezuela is rock bottom of the ranking with a score of 0.29. The bottom-five is rounded off by Cambodia, Afghanistan, Egypt and Cameroon. Since 2016, The Philippines was the biggest mover, falling 19 places to 88th.

The biggest improvers were Burkina Faso, Kazakhstan and Sri Lanka with each nation moving up nine positions since the last edition of the index was published.





Waymo’s “Uber-Killer” Robo-Taxi Set For Arizona Rollout

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Waymo, a unit of Alphabet, is set to launch a ride-sharing service similar to Uber, but with no human driver behind the wheel. Officials in Arizona granted Waymo a permit to operate as a transportation network company (TNC) across the state on Janurary 24, following the company’s initial application on Janurary 12, Bloomberg  reported.

The imminent release of a robotic fleet of fully autonomous Chrysler Pacifica minivans could be flooding the highways of Arizona, causing major headaches for Uber.

Since April of last year, Waymo has been experimenting with its self-driving fleet on the human guinea pigs of Phoenix, offering residents 24/7 access to the free ridesharing service. TNC status is a significant step for Waymo, because it now authorizes the company to start charging its passengers.

Waymo’s vehicles in the Phoenix area have driven more than 4 million miles on public roads. In November, the company said a portion of its cars in the Phoenix area were operating in fully autonomous mode, what’s known in industry parlance as level four autonomy.

“A fully self-driving fleet can offer new and improved forms of sharing,” Waymo said at the time, adding that in coming months it would invite members of the public to ride in the fully autonomous vehicles, beginning with those already in the early rider program.

“As we continue to test drive our fleet of vehicles in greater Phoenix, we’re taking all the steps necessary to launch our commercial service this year,” a Waymo spokesman said in an emailed statement.

As Quartz notes, driverless cars are widely believed to be the "silver bullet" that will make ride-hailing profitable by eliminating the main cost: wages paid to human drivers.

In the fourth quarter of 2017, Uber paid about $8 billion to drivers in earnings and bonuses, or about 72% of its gross revenue for the quarter. As a result, Uber lost $4.5 billion last year on $7.5BN in net revenue ($37BN gross revenue).

Waymo has yet to discuss driving rates for the Phoenix area, let alone provide plans to operate across other cities in the United States.

The threat from Google could prove existential…
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A Key Inflation Indicator To Watch, Part 1

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Daniel Nevins via FFWiley.com,

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”

—Milton Friedman

Have you ever questioned Milton Friedman’s famous claim about inflation?

Ever heard anyone else question it?

Unless you read obscure stuff written for the academic community, you’re probably not used to Friedman’s quote being challenged. And that’s despite a lousy forecasting record by economists who bought into his Monetarist methods.

Consider the following:

  • When Friedman’s strict Monetarism fizzled in the 1980s, it was doomed partly by his own forecasts. Instead of the disinflation the decade delivered, he expected inflation to reach 1970s levels, publicizing that prediction in 1983 and then again in 1984, 1985 and 1986. Of course, years earlier he foresaw the 1970s jump in inflation, but the errant forecasts that came later left him wide open to a “clock twice a day” dismissal.

  • Monetarists suffered an even harsher blow in 2012, when the Conference Board finally threw in the towel on Friedman’s favorite indicator, removing M2 from its Leading Economic Index (LEI). Generally speaking, forecasters who put M2 in their models are like bachelors who put “live with mom” in their dating profiles—they haven’t been successful.

  • The many economists who expected quantitative easing (QE) to wreak havoc on inflation are, of course, on the defensive. Nine years after QE began, core inflation remains below the Fed’s 2% target, defying their Monetarist beliefs.

When it comes to explaining inflation, Monetarism hasn’t exactly nailed it. Then again, neither has Keynesianism, whose Phillips Curve confounds those who rely on it. You can toss inflation onto the bonfire of major events that mainstream theories fail to explain.

But I’ll argue there might be a better way.

In three articles, I’ll try to convince you that we can develop a better theory by interpreting Friedman’s research differently than he did. Maybe you’ll like the theory, or maybe you won’t, but I promise this: the indicator that falls from it has a better record predicting major inflation trends than any other serious indicator I’ve studied. It’s not the only way to think about inflation, but it’s realistic and practical, and I’m…
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“Automatic-Bidding” Is Fueling Bubbles In The Hottest Housing Markets

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

It has been a year-and-a-half since US home prices surpassed their previous peak from July 2006, and they’ve only continued to move higher since. Earlier this week, we reported that home prices in two-thirds of US cities climbed to record highs during the fourth quarter, according to data from the National Association of Realtors.

This advance has continued even as prices in the ultra-high end of the market – where homes go for $10 million or more – have climbed to such elevated levels that buyers are beginning to disappear.

And today, at a time when investors are worried that rising 10-year yields and the affects of the Trump tax plan could trigger a shakeout in the housing market, the Wall Street Journal highlighted a practice that is being widely embraced in some of the US’s hottest housing markets, like Seattle and San Francisco.

Essentially, these clauses are attached to offers, and stipulate that the buyer will increase his or her offer by a given incremental amount if the seller can prove that a higher, verifiable bid has been made.

Typically, this tactic is employed for homes in the middle-level of the market – because if a buyer is bidding on an ultra-high end home, the increments would be so large they would warrant review by a human.

escalators

And as one professor pointed out, some buyers see it as a way to have their cake and eat it to: That is, a way to ensure that the price they would pay should they win the bid is the lowest possible in their price range.

However, there are obvious concerns that, in our view, make this a terrible tactic.

“A buyer can think of an escalation clause as a ‘have your cake and eat it, too’ clause,” says David Reiss, a Brooklyn Law School professor who specializes in real estate. “But in real estate, as with cake, it is hard to have it all.”

One concern is that the buyer is tipping his hand to the seller by using an escalation clause, Prof. Reiss says.

By indicating the maximum amount he will pay for the house, a buyer is revealing important information—that he’s willing to pay more. For example: Seller lists the house for $1 million. The buyer


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Charles Hugh Smith Fears “Catastrophic Drop”, Financial Markets “Definitely Destabilizing”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via Greg Hunter’s USA Watchdog blog,

Financial writer and book author Charles Hugh Smith has been watching the extreme movements in financial markets closely.

Is he nervous?  Smith says, “Oh yeah, it’s definitely destabilizing. “

In other words, it’s becoming not just more volatile, the whole underlying structure of our economy is destabilizing.  What I mean by that is it’s becoming more brittle or fragile.  That is fundamentally why we are seeing these wild swings. 

People are swinging between…keeping the money machine like it is for another nine years, and the other side of the coin says wait a minute, we have already had a weak expansion for nine years. 

It’s almost the longest expansion in U.S. history.  A normal business cycle doesn’t run in one direction forever…If you don’t allow your economy to have a business cycle recession, then you are simply making it more fragile by encouraging really marginal and risky investments, and that’s where we are now.”

One very big problem is a dramatic loss in buying power of the U.S. dollar, but it’s not just the dollar. According to Smith,

All these currencies, there is nothing backing the currencies except the government’s force.  That’s the yen, the euro, the dollar and the Chinese yuan.  They are all going to have a catastrophic drop against real assets because they are all based on too much leverage, too much debt, too much money being pumped into the financial system that ends up in unproductive speculation. 

You can’t grow your debt at six times the rate of your economy. 

In other words, if you are creating $6, $8 or $10 of debt to eke out $1 of low productivity growth, you are dooming your currency, and all currencies are doing the same thing.

Everybody knows they have been money for 5,000 years, and I personally feel there is a role for crypto currencies.

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Charles Hugh Smith, author of the new book “Money and Work Unchained” and the founder of the popular site OfTwoMinds.com.





Rallies Slow As Semiconductors Tag Resistance

Courtesy of Declan.

Friday saw the indices close near the lows of the day as Semiconductors tagged resistance and its 20-day MA. Supporting technicals offered a mix of bullish and bearish markets but shorts have their opportunity with a stop above 1,334.

The S&P edged a close above the bullish mid-line in stochastics along with a ‘buy’ in On-Balance-Volume. However, the index also experienced a relative loss against Small Caps as it struggles to attract new buyers.

The Russell 2000 pushed across the bullish mid-line and is close to a new MACD ‘buy’ trigger. While the Russell 2000 is outperforming against the S&P it’s underperforming against the Nasdaq. However, a push above the 20-day MA may be enough for it to regain overall leadership.

The Nasdaq may be the relative market leader but Tech indices closed lower where Large and Small Caps finished higher. A loss tomorrow will kick off the potential development of a new downward channel; marking a continued expansion of the consolidation.

The longer term charts are more mixed.  Nasdaq breadth metrics (Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA, 200-day MA, Summation Index and Bullish Percents) are caught in a bit of a no-mans land and are not oversold so it’s neither a buy nor a sell.

Similarly, the number of new 52-week highs and lows do not signify a top or a bottom but look to be favoring further weakness as 52-week lows show a gradual increase but as yet haven’t spiked or gained above the number of new highs.

The Dow Transports-Industrials ratio has again tagged its support neckline as it pressures the ‘bear trap’ following last weeks ‘bull trap’. There is a big void down to 0.20s which is likely to coincide with a weakening of the economy (weak transports = weak demand for goods).

The employment rate and Michigan consumer sentiment are also…
continue reading





Charleston Chopper Crash Blamed On Private Drone

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Officials at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) are investigating a serious helicopter crash that may have been triggered by a drone Wednesday near the southern tip of Daniel Island, South Carolina, in what could be the first-ever drone-related crash of an aircraft in the United States.

The crash was initially reported on Wednesday by WCSC-TV, a CBS-affiliated television station for the Lowcountry area of South Carolina in the United States that is licensed to Charleston, which obtained a copy of the incident report from the police stating that a Robinson R22 helicopter struck a tree and crash-landed.

The private helicopter instructor told police, he was conducting a training exercise at approximately 3:30 p.m, when the incident occurred on the tip of Daniel Island. His student was practicing “low impact and hover taxi maneuvers” above undeveloped land on the island, as a white “DJI Phantom quad-copter” breached their airspace, the report states. The instructor immediately commandeered all flight controls from the student and attempted to avoid a potentially deadly air collision, that is when the tail rotor of the helicopter struck a tree, triggering a crash landing.

The student told the police they were at a maximum altitude of 50 feet when the quadcopter breached their airspace.

She said when the helicopter’s tail struck the tree, “several pieces of the helicopter hit surrounding brush causing the helicopter to turn on its side when it landed,” reported WCSC. Luckily, neither the pilot nor the student was injured, though the helicopter sustained severe damage.

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) announced Friday it is opening an investigation into the accident, spokesman Chris O’Neil said. “The NTSB is aware of the pilot’s report that he was maneuvering to avoid a drone, but the NTSB has not yet been able to independently verify that information,” O’Neil said in a statement.

Bloomberg quoted a statement from drone maker DJI which said:

“DJI is trying to learn more about this incident and stands ready to assist investigators,” the company said in a statement. “While we cannot comment on what may have happened here, DJI is the industry leader in developing educational and technological solutions to help drone pilots steer clear of traditional aircraft.

The accident investigation is the second incident involving a drone in less than two weeks. Earlier…
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Zero Hedge

Auto Shares Surge As Fiat, Renault Confirm Merger Talks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With President Trump in Japan for a state visit and most of Europe headed to the polls to vote in the quinquennial EU Parliamentary elections, there was enough news to keep market watchers occupied during what was supposed to be a quiet holiday weekend in the US. 

But on top of these political headlines, on Saturday afternoon, the news broke that Italian-American carmaker Fiat Chrysler had approached France's Renault with a merger proposal that would leave the shareholders of each carmaker with half of the combined company, in a tie-up that would create the world's third-largest au...



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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons

 

Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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