Archive for 2018

You’re Paying Attention To The Wrong Interest Rate

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by John Del Vecchio and Brad Lamensdorf via LMTR.com,

Lamensdorf Market Timing Report – Special Edition

This special report by LMTR.com will highlight a few charts. Investors with a lot at stake should pay close attention to these gauges over the coming months. Failure to act on warning signs could be the difference between a comfortable retirement or years of slaving away at work. Investors have too much to lose to be asleep at the wheel.

Start by paying attention to the interest rate that matters. Chances are, you’ve watched the talking heads on TV. They are heavily focused on the Federal Reserve and what actions members plan to take on interest rates.

But, the interest rate that really matters is LIBOR. LIBOR stands for the London Interbank Offered Rate. It’s an extremely important rate.

When investors borrow money and use their portfolio as collateral, the loan is often priced at LIBOR plus some base interest rate. For example, the loan might be priced at LIBOR plus 1%. Importantly, these loans are not priced based on the federal funds rate.

Please note the blue line on chart below. The blue line is 3-month LIBOR, which has been rising steadily from the ashes to multi-year highs. Nearly every day it is getting more and more expensive to maintain these lines of credit that wealthy investors have been using.

How much credit is out there, borrowed against stock portfolios? Trillions of dollars.

People with portfolios of liquid assets, people who own stocks, have access to these credit lines. Often they must have more than $1 million in stocks and bonds to gain access to LIBOR-plus loans. These are the one percenters.

They can buy a new house or finance a large purchase of an illiquid asset by using their portfolio as collateral. These assets might be boats, planes, fine wine, or investable art.

You name it.

The rub is that the banks don’t ask you what you’re going to use the money for. The only stipulation is that it can’t be used to buy more…
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“He’s A Political Prisoner Whose Life Is In Clear And Pressing Danger”: Tommy Robinson Offered Asylum By German MP

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A German member of Parliament (MP) has offered British activist Tommy Robinson political asylum following his arrest on Friday for suspicion of breaching the peace while livestreaming outside the trial of a child grooming gang. 

Tommy Robinson is a political prisoner, whose life is in clear and pressing danger. We have to do everything we can to make sure he is granted political asylum,” said the office of conservative German MP Petr Bystron in a Saturday statement provided to the Gateway Pundit's Cassandra Fairbanks.

“As we know, German asylum laws are applied very liberally. Since 2012, 1.8 million mostly economic migrants have come to Germany under these asylum laws, even though they were not actually persecuted politically,” said Bystron, who himself came to Germany as a political refugee from Communism when he was 16.

The statement continued on to say that Robinson is an actual victim of political persecution and that he is appealing to the German Federal Government, the German Foreign Office, the European Union and all human rights organizations — including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch — to step in and fight for his freedom and grant him asylum in Germany. -TGP

Freedom of speech is under attack all across Europe. I was at the AfD march in Berlin today, where people were waving #FreeTommy signs. I grew up under Communist dictatorship, and I will not let our freedoms be taken away again,” Bystron told TGP.

Ein guter Tag für Deutschland. Ein Albtraum für die #antifa. Für die #ZukunftDeutschland|s waren heute >5.000 Patrioten auf Berlins Straßen. Die Botschaft ist angekommen: die #AfD gibt unser Land nicht auf. @AfDimBundestag #AfDdemo #AfDwirkt pic.twitter.com/dcToRWOSHa

— Petr Bystron (@PetrBystronAfD) May 27, 2018

Happening right now:

Massive patriotic march in Berlin.#FreeTommy #UK #TommyRobinson #FreeTommyRobinson #AFD #US #MAGA pic.twitter.com/7b71tTLRbw

— Northern Lion???? (@Swede_Watch) May 27, 2018



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Eurodollar University: Way Beyond Bank Reserves

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

The Crash of ’87 was a big deal, though not in the way most people remember. It was a stock market event, obviously, and those are the terms under which it has been understood. That’s not really its legacy, however, as the major shifts that began with Black Monday have had little and most often nothing to do with stocks or share prices.

Alan Greenspan was new to the top job at the FOMC on October 19. He and his fellow policymakers were very much concerned a stock market crash might trigger something along the lines of 1929. They would think that because for them, operating under an expectations regime, it didn’t matter that money and shares had been divorced and separated for decades by then. The Fed in its moneyless modern incarnation worried about how people might feel about the market chaos, and then act on those feelings alone.

Wall Street itself was shaken, though not because of some pop psychology side experiment. The bull of the eighties was much more than Gordon Gekko. The BSD’s were all bond traders, not stock jockeys. It was the rise of the quants.

The stock crash was appreciated, then, as a very prominent, in-your-face example of “tail risk.” These extreme outcomes are applicable in all markets. Even the bond desks were sweating heavily in October 1987.

Some that weren’t were those like John Meriwether’s “young professors”, the experience at Salomon Brothers (Solly) as retold by Michael Lewis’ Liar’s Poker. These mathematicians actually foretold the future. And Solly wasn’t alone or unique.

In the aftermath of Black Monday, JP Morgan’s chairman Dennis Weatherstone began to demand a 4:15 update every trading day. He wanted to know just how much the whole “bank” might stand to lose in the next day’s trading based on everything that had happened up to and including the just-completed session. It was the forerunner of value-at-risk, or VaR.

Again, it wasn’t really about share prices or exposures to what was offered at the NYSE. JP Morgan wasn’t itself a stock trader so much as an investment bank exposed to price swings in other markets, those ostensibly called “fixed” income. FICC would often be anything but,…
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America 2018: Dicier By The Day

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Scrape all this putrid excrescence off and we're left with a non-fantasy reality: everything is getting dicier by the day.

If we look beneath the cheery chatter of the financial media and the tiresomely repetitive Russian collusion narrative (that's unraveling as the Ministry of Propaganda's machinations are exposed), we find that America in 2018 is dicier by the day.

The more you know about the actual functioning of critical subsystems, the keener your awareness of the system's fragility, reliance on artifice and an unceasing flow of "free money." Keynesian economics boils down to a very simple premise: a slowing or stagnant economy can be goosed by distributing plenty of "free money" which can be freely blown on either speculation or goods and services.

The "free money" (either created out of thin air or borrowed into existence at rates of interest so low that they're less than zero when adjusted for inflation) dumped into speculation gooses assets higher, generating the "wealth effect" beloved by Keynesians, and the "free money" dumped into goods and services gooses consumption, tax revenues, hiring and so on.

The catch is "free money" is never actually free. Creating trillions out of thin air reduces the purchasing power of all existing currency, and pretty soon you're following Venezuela into "our money has lost all its value" territory.

Borrow trillions into existence and at some point even ludicrously low rates of interest start piling up serious sums of interest due, and the system eventually collapses under the weight of defaults and interest payments that stripmine the economy's productive capacity.

Every subsystem in America has compensated for structural stagnation and increasing friction by reducing redundancy and buffers. Have you noticed how many airline flights are now delayed by mechanical issues? Nobody keeps spare parts in stock, and servicing is now concentrated in a handful of hubs; there's no spare aircraft or flight crews available. All the buffers and redundancy have been stripped out to lower costs and maintain profits, lest the management team be fired for missing a quarterly earning target.

If you think America's healthcare system is functioning wonderfully, you need to hear some unvarnished, frank reports from nurses and doctors who are speaking off
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Moody’s: All Of Retail Isn’t Dying, But Brick-And-Mortar Probably Is

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

We have continually reported on many of the sure-fire signs that brick-and-mortar retail, as a sector, is still feeling enormous pressure from online retail and is, for the most part, simply disintegrating. On top of a number of bankruptcies over the last year, including stores like Bon-Ton and Toys 'R' Us, retail department store space is also freeing up and landlords are having trouble finding tenants.

A new report out by Moody‘s, however, seeks make the argument that it isn’t all of retail that’s dying, just mainly brick and mortar. It also makes the point that e-commerce is what's primarily holding up "retail" in general. The first point we'll take with a grain of salt, the second we can concede a little easier. 

The article, which calls the decline in brick and mortar retail a "relatively minor change in the economy" noted that many of the employment shifts happening as a result of declining jobs in brick-and-mortar retail have been made up by big players in ecommerce:

In the aggregate, it’s true that employment has flatlined at brick-and-mortar retailers, which we define as NAICS codes 44 and 45 minus nonstore retailers. However, despite the weak recent growth, brick-and-mortar retail employment is still close to a historical high at 15.3 million, falling only 22,000 jobs below the peak reached in 2017.

The historically high number of retail jobs overall does mask one negative trend: The growth of retail has not kept up with the rest of the economy. At the peak in the mid-1980s, retail made up 11.8% of overall employment. By 2017, it had fallen to 10.4%. So is this the much trumpeted death of retail? This is overblown for two reasons.

The report notes that this only brings retail's share of the labor maket to the same levels it was at back in the 1970's. Somehow, the report uses this mined piece of data to come to the conclusion that the sector "isn't entering new territory" and that retail overall may not be in as bad of shape as everyone thinks it is. It continues:

Second, it’s useful to place this into a broader context by


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Swift Injustice: The “Terrifying” Case Of Tommy Robinson

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Bruce Bawer via The Gatestone Institute,

  • The swiftness with which injustice was meted out to Tommy Robinson is stunning. No, more than that: it is terrifying.

  • Without having access to his own lawyer, Robinson was summarily tried and sentenced to 13 months behind bars. He was then transported to Hull Prison.

  • Meanwhile, the judge who sentenced Robinson also ordered British media not to report on his case. Newspapers that had already posted reports of his arrest quickly took them down. All this happened on the same day.

  • In Britain, rapists enjoy the right to a full and fair trial, the right to the legal representation of their choice, the right to have sufficient time to prepare their cases, and the right to go home on bail between sessions of their trial. No such rights were offered, however, to Tommy Robinson.

The very first time I set foot in London, back in my early twenties, I kicked up into an adrenaline high that lasted for the entire week of my visit. Never, in later years, did any other place ever have such an impact on me — not Paris, not Rome. Yes, Rome was a cradle of Western civilization, and Paris a hub of Western culture — but Britain was the place where the values of the Anglosphere, above all a dedication to freedom, had fully taken form. Without Britain, there would have been no U.S. Declaration of Independence, Constitution, or Bill of Rights.

In recent years, alas, Britain has deviated from its commitment to liberty. Foreign critics of Islam, such as the American scholar Robert Spencer, and for a time, even the Dutch Parliamentarian Geert Wilders have been barred from the country. Now, at least one prominent native critic of Islam, Tommy Robinson, has been repeatedly harassed by the police, railroaded by the courts, and left unprotected by prison officials who have allowed Muslim inmates to beat him senseless. Clearly, British authorities view Robinson as a troublemaker and would like nothing more than to see him give up his fight, leave the country (as Ayaan Hirsi Ali left the Netherlands), or get killed by a jihadist (as happened to…
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Stunning Images From Space As “Widening & Advancing” Lava Flow Reaches Hawaii Power Plant

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In just the past 24 hours there were between 250 and 270 earthquakes at Kilauea’s summit, with four explosions on Saturday sending ash to altitudes as high as 12,000-15,000 feet, said Stovall and National Weather Service meteorologist John Bravender.

The scale of the eruption and lava flow is so immense that satellites have been photographing it from above. First up, Digg shows an incredibly detailed shot from the European Space Agency's Earth Observation satellite, showing the bright flows sticking out against the lush green of the island: 

And NASA Earth Observatory got in on the action with this stunning night shot of the lava flows:

Satellites aren't the only ones capturing cool photos – this view from the Gemini Observatory shows the "glow from an extensive region of fissures over the course of a single night": 

However, more worrying for now is that fact that the lava crossed onto the Puna Geothermal Venture (PGV) Saturday evening local time, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, having destroyed dozens of nearby houses in the past few days.

The plant's wells run a mile deep in some areas.

Tom Travis from Hawaii Emergency Management told CBS News that in the worst-case scenario, there would be "a steam release, many chemicals, but primarily hydrogen sulphide, a very deadly gas".

“The flow from fissures 21 and 7 was widening and advancing,” Janet Snyder, a spokeswoman for the County of Hawaii, said in an email on the position of lava heading northeast toward PGV at 12:30 p.m. (6:00 p.m. ET)

Hawaii Governor David Ige has said the wells are stable.

Since Hawaii’s Kilauea volcano began a once-in-a-century-scale eruption May 3, authorities have shutdown the plant, removed 60,000 gallons of flammable liquid and deactivated wells that tap into steam and gas deep in the Earth’s core.

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“A Toxic Coup Narrative”: Why Italy’s Political Crisis May Be About To Explode

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

On Friday Europe experienced an existentially terrifying "deja vu" moment straight from the 9th circle of Europe's 2011/2012 sovereign debt hell, when first Italian, and then Spanish, yields exploded amid fears of political chaos in the Eurozone's 3rd largest economy, coupled with the threat of an imminent collapse of the Rajoy government in Spain, the 5th largest economy.

But while Spain is a late entrant to Europe's "political chaos" soap opera, all eyes remain on Italy where not only are short-term rates at level that MF Global would go Chapter 22…

… but the BTP-Bund spread exploded well beyond Goldman's "contagion" threshold of 200bps

… while the scariest chart of all revealed that Italian redenomination risk is now at an all time high, reflecting the reality of Italy's 'Mini-BoT' parallel currency concerns.

However, if it was the market's intention into scaring Italy's political system into submission, the same way it did in 2011 when the ECB got Sylvio Berlusconi to "quit" in just a few days as Italian bond yields exploded, it has failed, and according to the latest development in Europe, the Italian crisis may be about to get much worse.

Newly appointed Italy Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte

For those who missed it, Italy entered the weekend with the country deadlocked in what may be a Euro-defining clash whether euroskeptic professor, Paolo Savona, strongly endorsed by the League party, is allowed to become the country's next economy minister. Here are the latest troubling details from Leonardo Carella:

The nomination of the designated Finance Minister, Paolo Savona, is being held back by the President of the Republic - a prerogative he formally has but that has rarely been exercised – reportedly over Savona’s anti-EU views.

From President Mattarella’s point of view, Savona, an 82 year-old professor who served in Ciampi and Berlusconi’s administrations, would send the markets out of control and would bring Italy to the brink of open conflict with the EU.

From Lega’s point of


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How Christian media is shaping American politics

 

How Christian media is shaping American politics

File 20180522 51105 p4w2a9.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

President Donald Trump with televangelist Rev. Pat Robertson. AP Photo/Steve Helber

Courtesy of Jason C. Bivins, North Carolina State University

For Americans growing up between the 1950s and the 1980s, religion was not a regular presence on television. Aside from Sunday morning shows or occasional commercials, religious programming issued end-time warnings, sought monetary contributions, or staged faith healings. But it did not cover news.

Today is different, however. Not only are there entire networks devoted to religious broadcasting, but also Christian television has moved directly into covering news and politics, reaching millions of Americans daily with a conservative perspective on current events.

As a scholar of religion and politics in America, I believe it is important to understand the impact of the medium at this point of time as well as how it came to have such influence.

The growth of Christian media

American Christians have historically used new media to spread the gospel. In the 19th century, evangelicals used pamphlets and advertising techniques. The early 20th century produced a religious radio subculture that is still thriving in programs like the ones offered by Focus on the Family or Moody Radio.

By the early 1950s, preachers like Fulton Sheen, Robert Schuller or Billy Graham took to television.

While there was occasionally a political overtone to these programs, most of them refrained from explicit commentary. This changed beginning in the 1970s, in large part, because of two related political trends:

One, since the late 1970s, largely fundamentalist Protestant organizations like the Moral Majority took to popularizing Christian conservatism. These organizations rallied national support to influence politicians to oppose abortion rights and the Equal Rights Amendment, among other causes.

Two, around the same time, beginning with Ronald Reagan’s presidency, conservative politicians started to harness evangelicals as a voting bloc. As a result, many of these politicians began paying closer attention to Christian media for indications of this bloc’s concerns. This gave Christian media further influence in the political world.

The televangelists

The…
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GDPR: ground zero for a more trusted, secure internet

 

GDPR: ground zero for a more trusted, secure internet

File 20180525 51102 a4jra3.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Shutterstock

Courtesy of Bill Buchanan OBE, Edinburgh Napier University

Most of us have been bombarded recently by a barrage of emails from companies begging us to “stay in touch” or “opt in” or informing us of a “policy update”. On May 25, an historic date for the internet, the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) comes into force. For some, it is the start of a more citizen-focused world, for others it will see the collapse of their digital marketing strategy.

The number and scope of serious data breaches have dramatically increased in the last few years. In 2013, around three billion Yahoo user accounts were affected by a hacking attack. Recently it was revealed that 143m customers of the credit score agency Equifax were hit by a similar breach. And on top of this, we see breaches of privacy in the mass harvesting of data from Cloud service providers, as highlighted by the Facebook/Cambridge Analytica debacle. No wonder there is an increasing lack of trust in how companies capture and process our data.

Even Spotify has got in on the GDPR action. Spotify

A new dawn

GDPR replaces the EU’s 1995 Data Protection Directive, which set out minimum standards for processing data. With the new regulations, individuals are afforded the power to compel companies to reveal (or delete) any personal data they hold, and failure to adhere to the new rules will result in stiff penalties, with a maximum fine of 4% of a company’s turnover. For a company like Facebook, this could mean around US$1.6 billion.

Many companies already work within audit/compliance regimes. In the finance industry, for example, this is typically the Payment Card Industry Data Security Standard (PCI-DSS). But these regulations have often failed to stem the tide of data breaches within companies, necessitating more robust standards. At the core of GDPR there are four foundation elements:

Consent and how your data is used

As GDPR ensures that consent is explicit, the…
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Zero Hedge

Mass Chemical Attack On School In China Leaves 54 Injured, Mostly Children

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

What's being reported as a mass chemical attack on children happened Monday afternoon at a school in southwest China. The horrific incident injured fifty-one children and three teachers at a kindergarten in Kaiyuan city, Yunnan province, state media reported Tuesday

A 23-year old man, now in custody, reportedly scaled a wall to get into the school and then sprayed a corrosive chemical on the students and teachers...



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Insider Scoop

10 Stocks To Watch For November 12, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

  • Wall Street expects D. R. Horton Inc (NYSE: DHI) to report quarterly earnings at $1.25 per share on revenue of $4.86 billion before the opening bell. D.R. Horton shares rose 1.3% to $53.31 in after-hours trading.
  • Analysts expect Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ: SWKS...


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Phil's Favorites

How To Spend $45,000 On A $27,000 Car

Courtesy of Mike Shedlock, MishTalk

As cars become more expensive, and trade-ins worth less and less, buyers go deeper in debt on new cars.

Please consider taking a $45,000 Loan for a $27,000 Ride.

Consumers, salespeople and lenders are treating cars a lot like houses during the last financial crisis: by piling on debt to such a degree that it often exceeds the car’s value. This phenomenon—referred t...



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The Technical Traders

Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Investing - Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

This current market environment is very reminiscent of the 2006-08 market environment where price rotated into weakness on technicals and continued to establish new all-time price highs in the process – creating what we are calling a “zombie-land melt-up”.  This very dangerous price action is indicative of money chasing a falling trend.  Where technicals and fundamentals are suggesting that price is actually weakening quite substantial, yet the process of price exploration is continually biased towards the upside as investors continue to pile onto the back of the beast expecting a further melt-up.

Let’s take a look at what happened to the ES and Gold in 2006 an...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Indicator Sending Fresh Bearish Message, Says Joe Friday!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could the Gold/US Dollar ratio be sending a fresh concerning message to Gold bulls this week? Joe Friday says Yes!

This chart looks at the Gold/Dollar ratio over the past 8-years.

The intersection of two long-term channel met at (1) a few months ago. The ratio was testing the bottom of one as resistance and the top of another as resistance at the same time.

As the ratio was testing both channels as resistance, a sizeable bearish reversal pattern took place at (1).

Since the reversal pattern took place, the ratio has been heading lower.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; The ratio is breaking below...



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Digital Currencies

3 Reasons Why One Trader Didn't "Manipulate" Bitcoin Price To $20K

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin price highs in 2017 were not the result of a single trader on an exchange, the CEO of payment company Circle claims. In a series of tweets on Nov. 4, Jeremy Allaire disputed ...



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Chart School

Gold Gann and Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold has performed well, golden skies are here again. In fact it has been a straight line move, and this is typically unusual and a pause can be expected.

It seems the markets are happy again, new highs in the SP500, US 10 year interest rates look to re bound, negative interest may soften. The US FED has reversed their QT and now doing $250BN (not QE) repo. The main point is the FED has stopped QT, and will do QE forever. The evidence now is the FED put is under market risk and the possibility of excessive losses do not exist. 

Point: If in future if there is market risk, the FED will print it's way out of it.
Subject To: In this blog view. The above is so until the amount required rocks confidence in the US dollar as a reserve currency.&n...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Today's Fed POMO TOMO FOMC Alphabet Soup Unspin

Courtesy of Lee Adler

But make no mistake, if the Fed wants money rates to stay down by another quarter, it will need to imagineer even more money.

That’s on top of the $281 billion it has already imagineered into existence since addressing its “one-off” repo market emergency on September 17. This came via  “Temporary” Repo Man Operations money, and $70.6 billion in Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) money.

By my calculations that averages out to $7.4 billion per business day. That works out to a monthly pace of $155 billion or so.

If they keep this up, it will be more than enough to absorb every penny of new Treasury supply. That supply had caused the system to run out of money in mid September.  This flood of paper had been inundati...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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