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Technical Tuesday – Trumpdown Keeps Markets Weak

Well, we're making no progress.

On Friday we looked at our bounce levels and we were encouraged that we'd improved enough to be a bit more confident into the weekend but the ongoing Government shutdown by the President is making us more and more concerned every day – especially with the mounting evidence that President Trump may be a Russian Agent who's actual intent is to weaken this country.  Still, the entire GOP is going along with this insanity and they can't all be in Putin's pocket – can they?

Even if Trump isn't destroying America on behalf of Vladimir Putin, he's still destroying America so we added some hedges to our Short-Term Portfolio yesterday in our Live Member Chat Room in order to lock in our recent profits as well as to protect ourselves from the next Twitter rampage coming out of the oval office.

Trump is meeting with Congress this morning and, hopefully, it will go better than Friday's meeting, where he threw a tantrum and walked out because Nancy Pelosi said no to his wall – even after he offered her candy.  Meanwhile, you can see the Brits debating Brexit all day and all night in their Parliament because, when something important is affecting your Government – a real Government tends to focus on the problem.

That's a live feed – how cool is that?

Image result for british parliamentDon't even try to compare that to CSpan – it will make you cry.  British Parliament is based on debate and consensus so any MP is a skilled orator – it's basically a job requirement.  Most of our Congresspeople can't put two coherent sentences together without their entire staff working overtime to prep them and God forbid our Congresspeople get interrupted – that's game over for them but that's the entire game in the UK – a much better way to discuss the issues.  

With about an hour to go before the markets open, the Futures are down a bit and that may not seem bad but the Dow (/YM) Futures were up 200 points around midnight and have since collapsed back to where we were at yesterday's close.  The big boost came from an announcement out of China that they would implement more stimulus such as a cut in VAT rates as well as tax rebates and go-forward tax reductions to "Make China great again!"

We'll hear more doveish comments from Kashkari (11:30), Kaplan and George (1pm) as the Brexit vote is expected to fail and the Fed will look to offset our own market turmoil so it's going to bde a wild day.  This morning we got very bad news as the Empire State Manufacturing Index dropped 66.6% to 3.9 vs 10.75 expected by leading Economorons.  I always find it very disturbing when the "great" economic minds that are consulted by Bloomberg et. al are completely missing economic deterioration that is going on right under thier noses.

How many other things are they getting wrong and who is relying on these morons to make policy?  Also a surprise is a 0.2% DROP in the December Producer Price Index, so now we have DEflation and even the core PPI (ex-food & energy) is down 0.1% – for the Fed, that's much, much worse than inflation so it is starting to look like their December rate increse may have been a mistake after all.  

Image result for shutdown gdpIt is estimated now that we are losing 0.1% of our GDP for each week the Government remains shut down and, as noted yesterday, estimates are now 2.2% vs 3.1% pre-shutdown so we're looking at dipping below 2% by next week if this thing isn't resolved and keep in mind we'll be hearing warnings from many of the corporations that will be reporting over the next few weeks – not a recipe for a bull market by any means!  

As with many things, the Republicans think if they can't see the effect at their local Mercedes dealership, then it isn't real – no matter how much data you present them with and it makes you wonder how many of those "Leading Economorons" are Republicans but the answer is MOST of them, since it's exactly those kinds of clueless fact-ignoring idiots that the GOP likes to employ in order to make their completely unrealistic economic policies sound better to the American people.  

Unfortunately that means, when you really need good economic forecasting – there's little of it to be found and certainly none of it in those that advise our President most closely (Kudlow, Laffer….. say no more!).  Of course, if I were a Russian Agent looking to destroy the US economy, I would want to surround myself with the dumbest economists I could find so – mission accomplished – I guess…

  • If I were a Russian Agent, I might have collected $109M in cash from Russians – Trump did.  In 2010, the private-wealth division of Deutsche Bank also loaned him hundreds of millions of dollars during the same period it was laundering billions in Russian money. ‘Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets,’ said Donald Jr. in 2008. ‘We don’t rely on American banks. We have all the funding we need out of Russia,’ boasted Eric Trump in 2014.”   
  • If I were a Russian Agent, Russia might interfere in an election to put me into office – Russia did.  
  • If I were a Russian Agent, I might direct Russian spies to hack the computers of my opponents – Trump did and Russia did.  
  • If I were a Russian Agent, I'd have a lot of contacts with Russian operatives along with my team – Trump and his team have 101 documented contacts with Russia, so far.  
  • If I were a Russian Agent, I'd hire a campaign manager who was also an agent who would feed data to the Russian hackers in order to better coordinate election-rigging – Trump did.
  • If I were a Russian Agent, I'd fire the head of the FBI who was looking into the "Russia thing" if I could – Trump did.  He also bragged about it to the Russian Ambassador and Foreign Minister while sharing top-secret information with them – hardly the worst of his crimes…
  • If I were a Russian Agent, I'd seek to undermine the credibility of US Intelligence and even my own Justice Department – Trump did.    
  • If I were a Russian Agent, I'd take Vladimir Putin's word over my own experts on Russia's role in election hacking – Trump did.  
  • If I were a Russian Agent, I'd try to get the US out of NATO and encourage other Members to quit the allianceTrump did.  
  • If I were a Russian Agent, I'd support pro-Russian leaders in Europe like Viktor Orban in Hungary and Marine Le Pen in France – Trump did and does. 
  • If I were a Russian Agent, I would praise Putin as “a strong leader” while trashing just about everyone else from grade-B Hollywood celebrities to leaders of Allied Nations. I would even praise Putin for expelling U.S. diplomats and, notwithstanding written nstructions from my own aides saying “DO NOT CONGRATULATE”, I would congratulate Putin on winning his own rigged reelection – Trump did.
  • If I were a Russian Agent, I'd burn the notes about my meeting with Putin – Trump did
  • If I were a Russian Agent, I'd defend Russia's invasion of Afghanistan – along with anything else Putin cares to do – Trump did and does.  
  • If I were a Russian Agent, I'd pull our troops out of Syria, handing control of the country over to Russia – Trump did
  • If I were a Russian Agent, I would not respont to Russian attacks on Ukranian ships in International Waters nor would I look into Russia's poisoning of various strategic agents around the World – Trump did not.  

These are just some of the FACTS that just happen to be very consistent with the thesis that Donald Trump is a Russian Agent that was placed in power to undermine the United States of America and irreparably divide our country along with a massive disinformation campaign aimed to destablize our entire Democracy.  You may, of course, form your own opinion from these facts – it's a free country – for now…

 


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  1. I am not working for Russia:

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/nyt-trump-suggested-us-withdrawl-from-nato-several-times-2018

    Multiple times throughout the course of 2018, President Trump suggested privately that he wanted to pull the U.S. out of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, The New York Times reported. 

    They just have me by the balls!


  2.  

    Ignore this user

    Missing trade for STP:

    The May $125s are $14 and the $140s are $6.25 so net $7.75 on the $15 spread is good for 100% upside by itself if the CAT comes back (it usually does).  We only have 5 short 2021 $100 puts in the LTP and we sold them for $10 last time they dipped so plenty of room for more so, for the STP, we'll start with a short-term play as follows:

    Sell 5 CAT 2021 $120 puts for $15.30 ($7,650) 

    Buy 10 May $125 calls for $14 ($14,000) 

    Sell 10 May $140 calls for $6.25 ($6,250)

    That's net $100 on the $15,000 spread so $14,900 of upside if all goes well and, if not – we'll have a CAT spread in the LTP!  


  3. Good Morning!


  4. Good morning! 

    Big Chart is not bad – need the RUT, Nas and NYSE to clear the 50 dmas and we could be off to the races.

    CAT/DC – Thanks, please remind me on Thursday.

    Today I'm at the Cannabis Investing Conference in Miami.  A lot of people seem interested in our Marijuana Investment Fund and I'm making a lot of connections but, unfortunately, it's a very jam-packed agenda so I will not be around much today or tomorrow but I will try to check in once in a while when I have free time.

    NY seems about ready to legalize – that's a huge market.


  5. AVGO – New recovery high. Up 11 points today.   

    Covered some with OTM calls.


  6. WTF spiked the Nasdaq 100 points?

    • Online holiday sales increased 16.5% to over $126B this year, according to data from Adobe Analytics.
    • The tally included the huge shopping days of Thanksgiving ($3.7B), Black Friday ($6.2B) and Cyber Monday ($7.9B).
    • Overall sales for the 2018 U.S. holiday shopping season were up 5.1% to over $850B, according to a separate report from Mastercard.
    • One of the bigger takeaways from the 2018 holiday season was that major players such as Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Target (NYSE:TGT), Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) and eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) continued to peel away market share from smaller chains and department stores. Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY), Wayfair (NYSE:W), Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) and Stitch Fix (NASDAQ:SFIX) also nabbed more sales from brick-and-mortar stores.
    • Chain store sales rose +6.7% for the week ending on January 12, according to Johnson Redbook
    • Sales are expected to top 7% for the full month of January.
    • Stocks open higher while the Dow gains but trails the other major indexes as JPMorgan Chase (-1.3%) missed top and bottom line estimates for Q4; Dow +0.2%, S&P +0.6%, Nasdaq +1%.
    • European markets mostly edge higher ahead of today's crucial Brexit vote, with U.K.'s FTSE and France's CAC both +0.2% while Germany's DAX is flat; in Asia, Japan's Nikkei +1% and China's Shanghai Composite +1.4%.
    • In U.S. corporate news, Netflix +6% on news it will raise prices to its monthly memberships by 13%-18%, the company’s biggest price increase since it launched its streaming service more than a decade ago.
    • In other earnings news, Wells Fargo (-1.3%), Delta Air Lines (+0.1%) and UnitedHealth (+0.8%) all beat earnings estimates.
    • An early look at the sector standings shows communication services (+1.3%) and energy (+1%) outperforming the broader market, while the financials (-0.1%) and material groups (-0.3%) lag behind.
    • U.S. Treasury prices edge higher, pushing yields lower across the curve, with the two-year and 10-year yields each down a basis point to a respective 2.51% and 2.70%; the U.S. Dollar Index +0.2% to 95.77.
    • WTI crude oil +2.8% to $51.94/bbl following signs that China might roll out more fiscal stimulus.
    • Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) is hiking prices by 13% to 18%, according to Associated Press.
    • AP's Michael Liedtje says the increase is the largest by the company in 12 years.
    • The price increases in the U.S. include a bump on the most popular plan to $13 per month from $11 and an increase in the premium ultra-high def service to $16 from $14.
    • Shares of Netflix are up 5.13% in premarket trading to $350.00.

    • PG&E (PCG -28.9%) opens with another sharp drop, triggering a circuit breaker halt; shares have now lost nearly two-thirds of their market value since the company declared its intention to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
    • Gov. Newsom and other California lawmakers appear to show little interest in bailing out the company.
    • PG&E’s move “underscores the reality that the state cannot regulate utilities as we have for the last 100 years,” says Betty Yee, the state’s controller.
    • The stock receives two additional downgrades, from Macquarie and Argus Research, which had previously rated PCG a Buy; entering this week, Argus, BAML, Citi, Deutsche Bank, Evercore ISI, J.P. Morgan, Macquarie and Wells Fargo had continued to rate the stock a Buy.
    • Money market mutual funds' assets climbed to $3.07T in December, their highest level since March 2010, largely driven by retail investors, CNBC reports.
    • About $183B flowed into money market funds since the end of Q3, with almost three-quarters of that to retail funds, according to the Investment Company Institute.
    • The increase in money market fund assets coincided with the late-2018 stock market slump that resulted in the S&P 500 losing 6.2% for the year.
    • With investors wary about stock market volatility, higher short-term interest rates are also making money market funds more attractive for those who want a short-term asset, says Sean Collins, chief economist at ICI.
    • Medicine Man Technologies (OTCQB:MDCL) has signed binding term sheets and conditions for acquisition of MedPharm Holdings, LLC for undisclosed terms.
    • MedPharm Holdings is an intellectual property development and holding company focused on cannabis research and product/brand development.
    • The acquisition is expected to close in the Q119.
    • Andy Williams, Medicine Man Technologies' CEO: ''This planned acquisition of MedPharm Holdings, LLC brings world-class processing, research and pharmaceutical-grade products to the Medicine Man Technologies' portfolio. This is a significant step in becoming a dominant global operator, filling a key gap in our current products and services''.
    • Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers says Micron (MU +0.8%) can sustain positive FCF at downturn levels similar to 2009.
    • Rakers' comments follow a meeting with Micron's CFO. The analyst says concerns over the first quarter inventory build are driven by NAND versus DRAM inventory, but Micron is comfortable it can manage inventory normalization.
    • The firm lowers its Micron 2019 and 2020 EPS and revenue estimates.
    • Source: Bloomberg First Word.
    • JPMorgan Chase (JPM -1.2%) Chairman Jamie Dimon overall has been bullish on the U.S. economy. But the government shutdown throws a wrench into economic projections.
    • "Someone estimated that if it goes on for the whole quarter, it can reduce growth to zero," Dimon said on the bank's media call to discuss Q4 earnings.  "We just have to deal with that. it's more of a political issue than anything else."
    • Nevertheless, in JPMorgan's earnings release, Dimon calls on the country's leaders "to strike a collaborative, constructive tone, which would reinforce already-strong consumer and business sentiment."
    • Basically, everyone needs to work together to "help strengthen the economy for the benefit of everyone," he says.
    • Previously: JPMorgan -1.8% after big Q4 EPS miss (Jan. 15)
    • Walgreens Boots (NASDAQ:WBA) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) sign a multiyear deal that signs up more than 380K Walgreens employees for the 365 cloud apps.
    • Azure will also become WBA's cloud provider for the majority of its IT infrastructure, a significant win against cloud market leader Amazon, which is pushing into the healthcare space.
    • The companies will also work to develop innovative platforms enabling next-gen health networks and care management solutions using Microsoft's Azure and AI tech.
    • In 2019, WBA will pilot 12 store-in-store "digital health corners" to sell select healthcare-related hardware and devices.
    • Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) Q4 EPS of $1.21 beats consensus estimate of $1.20, compares with $1.13 in Q3 and $1.16 in the year-ago quarter.
    • Reflects growth in loans and deposits; credit performance remained strong, says CFO John Shrewsberry. Effective income tax rate was lower vs. Q3.
    • Wells Fargo slips 1.2% in premarket trading.
    • "We continued to have positive business trends in the fourth quarter with primary consumer checking customers, consumer credit card active accounts, debit and credit card usage, commercial loan balances, and loan originations in auto, small business, home equity and student lending all growing compared with a year ago," Shrewsberry says.
    • Q4 net interest margin of 2.94%, unchanged from Q3, and vs. 2.84% in Q4 2017.
    • Q4 effective income tax rate was 13.7% vs. 20.1% in Q3.
    • Q4 mortgage banking income of $467M fell from $846M in Q3.
    • Total average loans were $946.3B in Q4, up $6.9B form Q3.
    • Total average deposits $1.3T, up $2.6B from Q3.
    • Allowance for credit losses $10.7B at Dec. 31, 2018, down $249M from Sept. 30, 2018.
    • Community Banking net income of $3.17B vs. $2.82B in Q3 and $3.47B in Q4 2017.
    • Wholesale Banking net income was $2.67B vs. $2.85B in Q3 and $2.37B in Q4 2017.
    • Wealth and Investment Management net income of $689M vs. $732M in Q3 and $675M in Q4 2017.
    • Return on equity 12.89% vs. 12.04% in Q3 and 12.47% a year ago.
    • Previously: Wells Fargo beats by $0.01, misses on revenue (Jan. 15)
    • Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) and Ford (NYSE:F) formally announce a broad alliance.
    • Commercial vans and pickups will be a focus, with the alliance expected to leverage the manufacturing capacity of both automakers to boost the capability and competitiveness of their vehicles. and deliver cost efficiencies, while maintaining distinct brand characteristics. Through the alliance, Ford will engineer and build medium-sized pickups for both companies, which are expected to go to market as early as 2022. Ford intends to engineer and build larger commercial vans for European customers, and Volkswagen intends to develop and build a city van.
    • The companies estimate the commercial van and pickup cooperation will yield improved annual pre-tax operating results as early as 2023.
    • Volkswagen and Ford plan to continue to look at collaboration opportunities in autonomous vehicles, mobility services and electric vehicles.
    • Overall, the alliance is expected to drive significant scale and efficiencies and enable both companies to share investments in vehicle architectures that deliver distinct capabilities and technologies.
    • The alliance does not entail cross-ownership between the two companies. A joint committee led by Ford CEO Jim Hackett, Volkswagen CEO Bernard Diess and other senior executives will guide the alliance.
    • As far as the rest of the industry, the giant alliance could lead to some talks between other major players.
    • Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) announces adjusted pre-tax income of $1.2B in Q4.
    • Unit revenue was up 3.2% during the quarter off "healthy" leisure and corporate demand for tickets. Unfavorable F/X rates clipped TRASM by 50 bps during the quarter.
    • "As we move into 2019, we expect to drive double-digit earnings growth through higher revenues, maintaining a cost trajectory below inflation, and the modest benefit from lower fuel costs," says Delta CEO Ed Bastian. "Margin expansion is a business imperative and we remain confident in our full-year earnings guidance of $6 to $7 per share," he adds. Analysts are expecting an EPS mark of $6.68 for the full year.
    • Looking ahead, Delta expects Q1 EPS of $0.70 to $0.90 vs. $0.93 consensus and unit revenue growth of 0% to 2%. Capacity is seen rising ~4%. The timing of Easter, increasing currency headwinds and the ongoing government shutdown are seen as negative factors during the quarter.
    • Shares of Delta are down 1.57% in premarket trading to $47.00 vs. a 52-week range of $45.08 to $61.32.
    • Barclays reaffirms its Overweight rating and $180 target on Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) and advises to buy ahead of earnings.
    • "The best opportunity in large cap Internet is to catch a quality name when sentiment is washed out, valuation is depressed and positioning is offsides," writes analyst Ross Sandler.
    • The analyst says Facebook's current valuation already takes into account and discounts for headline risk and regulatory issues. DAU growth in the next report could provide a surprise upside.
    • Source: Bloomberg First Word.
    • Facebook will report Q4 results on January 30.
    • FB is up 0.4% premarket to $146.
    • Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY) and Authentic Brands Group ink a long-term revenue sharing agreement to market and distribute a portfolio of consumer cannabis products.
    • The products will be distributed within Authentic Brand Group's brand portfolio in jurisdictions where regulations permit.
    • Under the terms of the deal, Tilray will initially pay to Authentic Brands $100M and up to $250M in cash and stock, subject to the achievement of certain commercial and/or regulatory milestones. Tilray will have the right to receive up to 49% of the revenue from cannabis products sold, with a guaranteed minimum payment of up to $10M annually for 10 years.
    • "As we work to expand Tilray’s global presence, this agreement leverages our complementary strengths and will be accretive to our shareholders as we reach new consumers across the entertainment, fashion, beauty, home and health and wellness sectors," says Tilray CEO Brendan Kennedy.
    • TLRY +2.85% premarket to $103.00.
    • Source: Press Release
    • Italian banks plunged in Milan following a report that the European Central Bank told the lenders it oversees to cover all of their existing non-performing loans by 2026.
    • The article in Il Sole 24 Ore focused in particular on Italian banks, saying the country's lenders were burdened by the highest amount of impaired loans in Europe.
    • Banks would not have to comply with the request if they were able to explain why they cannot.
    • In Milan: UBI Banca -8.8%; UniCredit (OTCPK:UNCFY-3.5%; Intesa Sanpaolo (OTCPK:ISNPY-2.8%.
    • A patent lawsuit filed by Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) against Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been thrown out by a German regional court, which said the copyright in question was not violated by the installation of its chips in some iPhones.
    • Qualcomm, waging a worldwide patent battle with Apple, said it would appeal after winning a separate case before a court in Munich in December that enabled it to enforce a local ban on the sale of older iPhones.
    • AAPL +0.5% premarket
    • There are more signs of gloom for Europe's economic powerhouse following last week's dismal industrial production figures.
    • According to flash data, German GDP grew 1.5% in 2018, compared with 2.2% in 2017, pointing to the weakest growth rate in five years.
    • Reasons include a trade war-induced economic slowdown, delays in auto output due to tougher pollution standards and a warmer-than-expected November that held down energy production.

  7. QUIK,  my very speculative stock, has been a serial disappointer.  Delay after delay has postponed what I still believe will be a sharp ramp up in revenues.  Meanwhile, they keep getting engagements with some very large partners and recently announced, what I believe could be, a very important strategic acquisition.

    https://ir.quicklogic.com/press-releases/detail/467/quicklogic-acquires-sensiml-saas-ai-company

    The press release describes both QUIK, and Sensiml.

    I've been way too early (or just plain wrong?)

    However, I think an interesting option play would be :

    Buy the stock at $,90.

    Sell August $1 calls for $.20. This gives you a cost of $.70 for the stock.

    If stock is above $1 in August that gives you a 33% return.

    Personally, I believe the stock will be much higher in August, but a 33% return in 7 months is nothing to sneeze at.

    FWIW, it is my largest (number of shares) of any position.  That and $1 gives you several choices at Mickey D's.


  8. Well, looks like it turned into a good day after all.  

    Oil up at $52.

    Very impressive against a strong Dollar.

    QUIK/Albo – I'll be more interested when they don't lose $1 for every $1 of revenues.  If you've been frustrated before, projections are it will continue through this year at least:

    Year End 31st Dec 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 TTM 2018E 2019E CAGR / Avg
    Revenue $m 14.9 26.1 27.8 19.0 11.4 12.1 12.4 12.9 22.6 -4.1%
    Operating Profit $m -12.2 -11.8 -12.8 -17.5 -18.8 -14.0 -14.0      
    Net Profit $m -12.3 -12.3 -13.1 -17.8 -19.1 -14.1 -14.1 -12.3 -7.47  
    EPS Reported $ -0.29 -0.27 -0.24 -0.32 -0.29 -0.18 -0.17      
    EPS Normalised $ -0.29 -0.27 -0.24 -0.31 -0.29 -0.18 -0.17 -0.14 -0.080  
    EPS Growth %                    
    PE Ratio x           n/a n/a n/a n/a  
    PEG x           n/a n/a n/a n/a
    Profitability

      

    My main worry is they dilute to raise cash.


  9. Phil – All good points.  I think this is the year all that changes.  Of course my track record leaves a lot to be desired on this one. 8-)





  10. Attorney General nominee William Barr at Senate hearing says he would support law prohibiting marijuana nationwide; says marijuana legalization in states is a backdoor nullification of federal law, however he will not use federal resources to target marijuana companies.


  11. Albo/QUIK    I would be concerned with their ability to maintain $1 minimum price, for fear of delisting. However I believe exchange will give the company plenty of time to work that out.  I learned the hard way when one I owned failed to do so and now trades on the pink sheets. 



  12. Disney Seeks Deals for Sports Networks by Late February






  13. MJ/Albo – We already have a law prohibiting marijuana nationwide, that’s the current law.   As long as they don’t go trampling over states’ rights, and things continue as they are now, which is actually good for the small companies as it keeps big tobacco and such out of the game for a longer period.


  14. MJ/Phil, doesn't the supremacy clause of the US constitution apply?  "This Constitution, and the Laws of the United States which shall be made in Pursuance thereof; and all Treaties made, or which shall be made, under the Authority of the United States, shall be the supreme Law of the Land; and the Judges in every State shall be bound thereby, any Thing in the Constitution or Laws of any State to the Contrary notwithstanding."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supremacy_Clause


  15. Stockbern – You're right about $1 listing requirement.  Typically, companies can get extensions.  In any event, I think that issue will go away when they report next month. We'll see.



  16. Good morning! 

    Things look calm fortunately as I will have pretty much no time today.  Only a short post, in fact.

    MJ/Mike – If they choose to enforce it, yes but, if the states don't prosecute then there would have to be massive Federal over-reach to enforce – like the FBI running in and shutting down distributors, growers, perhaps even manufacturers.

    As it stands, the 1970 Controlled Substances Act lists "Marihuana" as a Schedule I substance BECAUSE it has "a high potential for abuse" and "no currently accepted medical use" and lacked "accepted safety" – all of those issues can be challenged and Congress can deschedule things very easily – it simply isn't a priority as the Government is closed at the moment.

    That's the only reason pot is "federally illegal" so it looks like it's a LOT more likely to break for the industry than against it – it's just a question of time.


  17.  

    Sent the question to Webbroker about holding two sets of short calls against one long set (ie covrng a short position with a BC spread) .. they say they have to ask for margin for the 2nd set of short calls. They say that a specialty broker with higher fees might do it without margin but they can’t :(

    So I actually can do it, with enough mgn.

    ——

     

    Related AAPL Questions:

     

     Currently holding some suggested AAPL bc spreads including:

     

    1. 20 Jan’21 140c (rolled from ’19 150s) vs 20 Jan’19 175’s (expiring)

    2. Long 20 Jan’20 150c vs Sh 20 Jan’20 190c

     

    When short Jan’19 175c's expire Fri, I could sell some more short calls against the Jan’21 140s (any suggestions? I suppose it depends if I sell two sets or just one and how much margin I have.)

     

     

    Speaking of margin, I also have:

    Short 5 Jan’21 170p  @$22.2   (mgn ~ $40k)

    Short 7 Jan’21 195p   @ $31.7  (mgn ~$ 67k)

     

    These short puts are holding me hostage with most of my margin and am wondering if there is something constructive (liberating) to do with them?

     

    No rush if it’s a busy day.

     

     THX!