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The PhilStockWorld.com Money Talk Portfolio Review – Jan 30, 2019

I'll be on BNN's Money Talk tonight at 7pm

For the past year, we've been keeping a Money Talk Portfolio, which we only adjust live on their show, once per quarter so we have to keep it well-balanced and self-hedging.  We rode out the recent downturn with style as our last review, on Oct 24th (the last time I was on the show) we were at $95,645, up $45,645 (91.3%) from our $50,000 start and we projected that our remaining positions would gain $70,015 by Jan, 2021 (the time-frame for our spreads). 

Not content with that, we added two new trades (MU and MJ) and one hedge (TZA and CAT), adding another $50,000 of upside potential over the same time-frame.  So, with $120,000 of upside potential over the next 24 months, we expect to make about $5,000 per month but the market took a nasty downturn and we're only just recovering so I'm sorry to report that we're only up to $105,845, which is up $55,845 (111.7%) and "only" up $10,200 (20.4%) in the past 3 months.  

We were unable to make adjustments during the downturn, which we did call very well in our Live Member Portfolios (see our Jan 21st Portfolio Review), so the performance is not quite as good as our Live Trading Portfolios but it's the perfect portfolio for less active traders, who just like to check on their progress every few months.  As of yesterday's close, our positions were:

As you can see, the MJ trade we added during the October show has blasted higher and is up $6,550 already but it's a $40,000 spread we had intended to make $38,500 on so up $6,550 in a quarter is what we call "on track" and, even as a new trade, the net is still just $8,050 so the upside is $31,950 (396%) if MJ is over $45 in 2021.  

And that, by the way, is how we review our portfolios.  You should always know how much you expect to gain from every one of your trades and options allow us to know not just how much but WHEN we expect to realize our gains – so it's very easy to check to see if our trades are on or off track and make adjustments accordingly. 

Of course, at Philstockworld, we are primarily Fundamental Investors and what we really care about is buying stocks that are undervalued.  The options are just a way for us to leverage the anticipated gains – as well as to provide good hedges – just in case we're wrong!  So, without further adieu:  

ALK – A lot of times, we sell a put on a stock we'd REALLY like to own to rasise cash to pay for a hedge.  That way, if the market goes higher (and our stock does well), it mitigates the cost of the hedge.  ALK is a nice sleeper stock and we expect to collect the next $2,600 on this one.

CAT – This also begain as an offset but CAT took another dip recently so we're going to turn it into a full spread because the CAT always comes back!  We're going to add the bull call spread to the short calls:

  • Buy 5 CAT 2021 $100 calls for $35 ($17,500)
  • Sell 5 CAT 2021 $130 calls for $19 ($9,500)

That's net $6,000 on the $15,000 spread but we sold the short puts for $6,000 so we have a net gain of $15,000 if all goes well and the $5,000 margin requirement doesn't change so a very efficient trade from that perspective as well.  Even if you were to sell the $100 puts today for "just" $8.50 ($4,250) the net of the spread would be $3,750 with $11,250 (300%) of upside potential just $4 higher than the stock is trading at today!  As it stands, we certainly expect to make the full $15,000 on this spread and currently it's valued at net $1,712 (the $6,000 we're investing less the negative $4,288 value of the puts we already sold) so our upside potential at $130 is $13,288 (776%) from here.  

SQQQ – This spread is a hedge and SQQQ is the 3x Ultra-Short for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX).  The potential of the spread is $10,000 and currently it's value is net $4,700 so it's offering just $5,300 of upside potential but, hopefully, we lose the remaining $4,700 while our longs go higher. .  

TZA – Since this hedge expires in April, it's more urgent to make an adjustment (I won't be on the show again until then) so we'll do the following to buy more time and add more protection:

  • Buy to close 40 short TZA April $15 calls for 0.50 ($2,000)
  • Roll 40 TZA April $10 calls at $1.95 ($7,800) to 40 of the Jan 2020 $8 ($3.90/15 ($1.60) bull call spreads at $2.30 ($9,200)

We're spending net $3,400 to move to a $28,000 insurance policy that lasts through Jan of 2020.  The only way we lose (it's in the money) is if the market goes up and that would be a win on our longs.  That's what hedges are supposed to do.  The current net of the TZA spread was $5,660 plus the $3,400 we just spent puts us in for $9,060 we hope we're going to lose while our longs gain the big bucks.  It's our "insurance" cost to protect our other positions.  

GE is crazy cheap at $9 and, despite taking a bath on the original trade, I'd like to stick with them with the following:

  • Buy to close 10 short GE 2020 $18 calls at 0.10 ($100)
  • Roll 10 short GE 2020 $15 puts at $6.10 ($6,100) to 20 short 2021 $12 puts at $3.80 ($7,600)
  • Roll 30 GE 2020 $13 calls at 0.41 ($1,230) to 30 2021 $8 ($2.70)/12 ($1.20) bull call spreads at $1.50 ($4,500)

Here we're spending net $1,870 to put ourselves into a $12,000 spread that's $3,000 in the money to start.  The GE spread we had was net -4,990 (we had a loss) and that loss is lowered by $1,870 as it's cash that came in from the sidelines so less cash and less loss.  That makes the new position -$3,120 and, if we collect the full $12,000, it will be a +$15,000 for the portfolio less the $1,870 adjustment cash equals a potential gain of $13,250.  

GIS – Off to a choopy start but we like this one for 2019 and we need to gain 10% to get our full $11,250 from the current net $1,890 so $9,360 (495%) left to gain for the year makes this still very nice for a new trade.  

GOLD – Was ABX but they bought GOLD and decided to use that symbol.  About where we came in after 6 months but I love gold and GOLD in 2019 and this trade has $12,500 potential and currently just net $1,812 so upside potential of $10,688.

LB – Our 2018 stock of the year is not doing so well at the moment and it's tricky in this portfolio as we can't take advantage of the ups and downs (we've been in and out twice in our other portfolios).  Still, that's no reason not to buy into a great value stock so our adjustment will buy us more time to be right:

  • Roll 40 LB 2020 $27.50 calls at $4.30 ($17,200) to 40 2021 $22.50 ($8)/32.50 ($4) bull call spreads at $4 ($16,000)
  • Buy back 20 (1/2) of the short 2020 $35 calls for $1.80 ($3,600)

In this case, we're spending net $2,400 to drop our target by $5 on the $50,000 spread.  The net was just $940 + the $2,400 is our contribution into the new $50,000 spread so we still have $46,660 left to gain – very good as a new trade!  

One question I get asked is "What about the money we originally spent?"  In this case, it was net $2,840 but that money is already out of the balance of our portfolio and what matters is the position we have NOW against the cash we have NOW and what we can do with that.  You should always look at every new trade as if it's a brand new trade and decide if THAT trade is the best thing you can do with your cash and margin at any given time.  In LB's case, we have a position that's slightly down but spending just $2,400 turns it into a position that has a great chance of returning 20 times that amount.

MU – Our other trade from last Q.  Off to a slow start but on track at net $1,525 from our original net $550 start so up $975 (177%) on cash so far and on the way to our full $15,000 means we have another $13,475 (883%) left to gain over the next two years if we hit $50.  

WPM – Our 2016 Trade of the Year is doing very well already at net $7,545 and it's an $18,750 spread so $11,205 left to gain and we're only 10% below our goal, miles ahead of schedule..  

So that's $152,476 of potential gains from our 9 long positions less $13,760 we expect to lose on our hedges (if things are going so well on our longs).  Of course, nothing goes perfectly according to plan but a plen to make 300% on a $50,000 portfolio that's already up 100% is a pretty good way to start!  

We put very little additional cash to work and didn't use much margin either so we still have about $100,000 of buying power (ordinary 2x margin) but I'm aiming to keep the portfolio within the bounds of what you can do with $50,000, not $105,845.  

As we have plenty of room, let's add our 2019 Trade of the Year, IBM to the mix with a brand new trade as it's still cheap at $135 and we don't have to be too aggresive to make good money so we'll play it as follows:

  • Buy 5 IBM 2021 $120 calls for $21.50 ($10,750)
  • Sell 5 IBM 2021 $135 calls for $14 ($7,000)
  • Sell 2 IBM 2021 $130 puts for $16.50 ($3,100)

That's net $650 on the $7,500 spread so the upside potential is $6,850 for a 1,053% return on cash and the ordinary margin requirement for the 2 short IBM puts is $4,488 so it's a very margin-efficient trade as well (using little margin to make big gains).  

The key to successful trading is having a realistic trading plan and then making sure that plan is successful.  If you are diversified in your positions and if you hedge properly – there shouldn't be any times in which all your positions are losing and that, then, gives you the flexibillity to make adjustments when you need to or, in the case of our Money Talk Portfolio – the ability to completely ignore the market gyrations and simply take stock and make adjustments once a quarter.

You don't need to play a lot to make money – just play smart when you do play! 

You are invited to attend today's Live Trading Webinar at 1pm, EST, where we'll get the Fed results and discuss these and other positions.  Just click the link above to register.

 


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  1. A different take on budget deficits:

    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-01-27/whos-afraid-budget-deficits

    Deficit fundamentalists argue that they are championing a noble and underappreciated cause. In some ways, they are; deficit reduction is never a political winner. But if they turn out to be right, economists and policymakers will know soon enough. The financial markets give immediate feedback about the seriousness of the budget deficit. If the debt becomes a problem, interest rates will rise, putting financial and political pressure on policymakers to accomplish what fiscal fundamentalists have long wanted. But even if that happens, it is not likely to cost so much that it would be worth paying a definite cost today to prevent the small chance of a problem in the future.

    Policymakers will always know when the market is worried about the deficit. But no alarm bells ring when the government fails to rebuild decaying infrastructure, properly fund preschools, or provide access to health care. The results of that kind of neglect show up only later— but the human cost is often far larger. It’s time for Washington to put away its debt obsession and focus on bigger things.

    Of course, there is always a solution to raise taxes on the people who can pay more.

    It's also funny to look at projections – on the back of the Clinton tax increase, it looked like deficits were going to be erased. In come Bush and that's gone:


  2. Phil / AAPL – 40X Jan '21 120 calls – are you looking at covering these partially or otherwise?


  3. Good morning, All!

    Jam packed day! Join us for our webinar at 1pm! (Then BNN at 7pm!)

    https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6206742435791331852


  4. Good Morning!


  5. Phil,
    I have a question about your IBM trade for the MoneyTalk portfolio.
    What's the thinking behind selling the $135 calls that's almost in the money?
    From my understanding, as the stock price goes up so does the cost of
    closing that position. I always thought the idea about selling calls was
    to place them in a range where they could expire worthless.


  6. Phil / Thoughts on T after the drop this morning?


  7. Somavision I put in an order to buy more stock. You can sell as well more puts, Jun 29 put for 1.60.


  8. Thx Yodi


  9. Have been doing quite well just selling naked puts against GOLD, NLY, WPM. Going to add T into the mix.


  10. Somavision. The only disadvantage by just selling just puts is, you miss out on the stock div, as well as the value of selling cherry calls once the stock shows some recovery! This is the base principal of the armchair trade.


  11. Yodi / I hold the stock as well. Haven't been selling calls as the stocks recover, but will give it a shot after reading your posts! The calls you sell are 2-3 months out?


  12. Phil / Thoughts on HRB? Time to lay down a trade for tax season?


  13. Good morning! 

    That review took longer than I thought with all the math….

    Big Chart – Well in the range now but AAPL and BA are about 2/3 of the Dow gains so take today with a grain of salt.

    AAPL at the +5% line at $162.50 so that should at least pause it.  $158 was the weak bounce and $176 is the strong off the drop from $230.  

    To break the downtrend, you only have to strong bounce in the time it took you to fall so two months to $176 or another month to go before that's a fail.

    IBM/Gardling – Once you get to expiration, all that matters is the net of the spread (if it's in the money).  Whether it's a penny in the money or $1M in the money, you still get the net of the spread.  We have a lot of positions in the MTP and I didn't want to open up a large one but I did want to add our new Trade of the Year so I took a conservative position with an excellent chance of making at least 5x back on cash without using much margin – that's why I set it up that way. 

    The main idea is to sell more premium than you buy – as much as possible in your favor.  That's what Being the House is about!  

    T/Soma – Didn't have a chance to look.  VZ did well, T did not – I guess it's just a tough market but they are all building to 5G so I'm willing to give them all a pass this Q.  T just merged with TWX too, so that's another pass we should be giving them this whole year.  

    HRB/Soma – We already have them.  

    Long Call 2020 17-JAN 20.00 CALL [HRB @ $25.67 $0.02] 20 12/26/2018 (352) $10,700 $5.35 $1.10 $4.40     $6.45 - $2,200 20.6% $12,900
    Short Call 2020 17-JAN 27.00 CALL [HRB @ $25.67 $0.02] -20 12/26/2018 (352) $-4,300 $2.15 $0.33     $2.48 - $-650 -15.1% $-4,950
    Short Put 2021 15-JAN 23.00 PUT [HRB @ $25.67 $0.02] -10 12/27/2018 (716) $-3,700 $3.70 $-0.48     $3.23 $-0.13 $475 12.8% $-3,225

    https://www.philstockworld.com/2019/01/21/philstockworld-january-portfolio-review-members-only/

    • HRB (OOP) – Every year we buy them in the winter and then, around tax season, people remember them and start buying.  Good for a new trade.  
    • HRB (LTP) – At our goal but net $6,500 out of $14,000 means i'ts great for a new trade, even up $3,600 from our original entry.  

  14. Somavision in general this is correct. But I do not sell calls at the time where we have the stock tankes like today!!!


  15. Phil/IBM TRADE

    Looks to me like you meant to write 2021 not 2020 for BCS and sold puts.



  16. Data Sheet—Why the Case Against Huawei Looks Trumped Up


  17. Apple blocks Facebook from running its internal iOS apps


  18. AMGN down 5% looking to sell the Jun 180 put for 10.80


  19. Bought AGNC for 17.95


  20. AAPL Mar 175 caller for 1.18 to 1.20


  21. Phil / Yodi – On a day like today, when the Nasdaq is up, is it a good idea to sell SQQQ calls if I want to add to my hedge?






  22. EU leaders say No, non and nein to Brexit deal changes



  23. IBM/DC – That's correct, should be 2021, thanks!  

    SQQQ/Soma – Selling SQQQ calls does not add to your hedge, buying them does!   So SQQQ is down 5% today but the VIX is also down so it all depends on when you are getting the best price.   Note SQQQ bottomed around $11 so $13.50 not a huge bargain – especially if Tech earnings keep coming in well.  Also, they could "fix" China – that would also kill SQQQ.  That's why I only adjusted TZA this morning, not our SQQQ spread.  If we're going to get weakness, it is likely to hit the RUT first.

    • Helios & Matheson (NASDAQ:HMNY) schedules a special shareholder meeting for March 15 to vote on an amendment to its certificate of incorporation for a one-time reverse stock split.
    • The board is recommending that the reverse split (at a ratio somewhere between 1-to-2 and 1-to-500) be approved.
    • HMNY trades at $0.011 at last check.
    • Smartphone vendors shipped 375.4M units during Q4, down 5% Y/Y for the fifth consecutive quarter of declines, according to preliminary IDC data.
    • Samsung (OTC:SSNNFOTC:SSNLF) and Apple (AAPL +4.9%) led the vendors with market shares of 18.7% and 18.2%, respectively. Samsung's shipments dropped 6% Y/Y and Apple's dropped 12%.
    • Huawei, OPPO, and Xiaomi rounded out the top five with shares of 16.1%, 7.8%, and 7.6%. All three increased shipments on the year with growths of 43.9%, 6.8%, and 1.4%, respectively.
    • Exxon Mobil (XOM +0.8%), Plains All American (PAA +0.5%) and Lotus Midstream say they have formed a joint venture to build the Wink to Webster pipeline, connecting the Permian Basin in west Texas to the Texas Gulf Coast.
    • PAA will lead project construction and already has initiated pre-construction activities on the new common carrier pipeline system that will carry more than 1M bbl/day of crude oil and condensate.
    • The companies say the project is underpinned by a significant volume of long-term commitments and is targeted to begin operations in H1 2021.
    • McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) trades higher after issuing a long-term outlook as part of its earnings day presentation.
    • The company expects to achieve systemwide sales growth of 3% to 5% and EPS growth in the high single digits. Management also highlights that return on invested capital is forecast to be in the mid-20% range.
    • Shares of McDonald's are up 2.69% on the day to rank 2nd out of the 44 publicly-traded restaurants stocks.
    • Previously: McDonald's global comp tops estimates (Jan. 30)
    • Bank of America (BAC -0.9%) expands eligibility for commission-free online stock and ETF trades through Merrill Edge to all Preferred Rewards members, instead of only the higher tiers of the loyalty program.
    • More than 5.25M clients are enrolled in Preferred Rewards, with combined client banking and investment assets of over $425B.
    • T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ:TROWsinks 5.6% after adjusted EPS of $1.54 misses consensus estimate of $1.60 in a quarter that saw market depreciation and losses of $110.8B and net client outflows of $8.4B.
    • Q4 ended with assets under management of $962.3B, down 11% during the quarter.
    • Q4 adjusted operating expenses of $794.7M rose 4.7% Y/Y.
    • Q4 net investment advisory revenue from U.S. mutual funds were $817.9M, virtually flat Y/Y; from subadvised and separate accounts were $365.8M, up 8.2% Y/Y.
    • Q4 effective fee rate of 46.4 basis points slipped from 46.7 bps in Q3 and 47.1 bps in Q4 2017; decline is due to clients transfers to lower fee vehicles or share classes and a shift in asset mix toward lower fee products as a result of the sharp market decline in the quarter.
    • Previously: T. Rowe Price misses by $0.06, revenue in-line (Jan. 30)
    • EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude +0.9M barrels vs. +3.1M consensus, +8.0M last week.
    • Gasoline -2.2M barrels vs. +2.8M consensus, +4.1M last week.
    • Distillates -1.1M barrels vs. -2.0M consensus, -0.6M last week.
    • Futures +1.05% to $53.87.
    • Foxconn/Hon Hai (OTCPK:HNHAFOTCPK:HNHPDmight not make LCD panels in Wisconsin at its $10B campus, according to comments from Louis Woo, special assistant to CEO Terry Gou.
    • The company says it plans to hire mostly engineers and R&D rather than the originally planned manufacturing workforce.
    • The 20M square foot campus was first introduced at the White House in 2017. Foxconn received $4B in controversial local and state incentives for the project.
    • Plans to build large-screen LCDs at the facility were changed to smaller screens. And now Foxconn might scale back or cancel those plans due to the high cost of labor and advance TV manufacturing in the United States.
    • The company says the facility will instead become a "technology hub" for research and some packaging and assembly.
    • Foxconn says that roughly three-quarters of the full 13K jobs promised for Wisconsin will be for engineers and other highly-skilled workers.
    • Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF +12.2%) surges more than 12% to top all NYSE gainers in early trading, after rival miner Vale said it would cut iron ore production by as much as 10%, or ~40M metric tons/year, in the wake of Brazil's deadly dam disaster.
    • Trading volume in CLF totaled 6.4M shares within 20 minutes after the open, compared with the full-day average of 7.9M shares.
    • Also opening higher: BHP +2.1%RIO +1.8%.
    • Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) is up 2.2% after edging revenue expectations this morning with a record figure and reaffirming fiscal-year guidance.
    • Profits were sharply higher, with net income swinging to a gain of $251M from a year-ago loss of $37M.
    • EBITDA was up 6% to $576M.
    • The company added 346,000 net subscribers to crest the 34M-subscriber mark. Net new self-pay subscriber additions came to 414,000 to reach 28.9M.
    • Meanwhile, self-pay churn for 2018 ended up at 1.7%, its lowest full-year churn since 2007.
    • For 2019, it's reiterated guidance for self-pay net adds "approaching 1M," total revenue of about $6.1B (vs. consensus for $6.08B), EBITDA of $2.3B and free cash flow of about $1.6B. That guidance doesn't give effect to the acquisition of Pandora.
    • Previously: Sirius XM EPS in-line, beats on revenue (Jan. 30 2019)
    • Previously: Sirius XM adds $2B to stock buybacks (Jan. 29 2019)
    • Press release
    • The latest privacy headlines around Facebook (FB +1.4%) have the social network in Apple's (AAPL +5.2%) crosshairs: Apple is banning a "market research" app Facebook used to draw in all of a user's mobile data.
    • Facebook had already agreed to pull the app from Apple's App Store after reports emerged that Facebook was paying people to install the VPN that gathered personal data, activity that as of last summer is against Apple privacy guidelines. Now Apple won't let Facebook distribute it again.
    • Facebook apparently took advantage of a developer program that allowed approved partners to test and distribute apps specifically for their own employees, Recode reports. Such apps don't get reviewed and approved as usual, but Facebook used the program to pay non-employees as much as $20/month for their data.
    • "Facebook has been using their membership to distribute a data-collecting app to consumers, which is a clear breach of their agreement with Apple," Apple says. "Any developer using their enterprise certificates to distribute apps to consumers will have their certificates revoked, which is what we did in this case to protect our users and their data.”
    • Updated 12:01 p.m.: NYT reporter Mike Isaac notes that revoking Facebook's enterprise certificate means a whole lot of internal development builds at Facebook don't work on iPhones, resulting in "total chaos over inside FB internal channels right now."

  24. So much for Foxconn coming to the US:

    https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/foxconn-may-not-build-10b-wisconsin-plant-trump-touted-n964411

    Foxconn is reconsidering plans to make advanced liquid crystal display panels at a $10 billion Wisconsin campus, and said it intends to hire mostly engineers and researchers rather than the manufacturing workforce the project originally promised.

    Announced at a White House ceremony in 2017, the 20-million square foot campus marked the largest greenfield investment by a foreign-based company in U.S. history and was praised by President Donald Trump as proof of his ability to revive American manufacturing.

    I am sure that we will hear about in the State of the Union address.


  25. Almost Webinar time – I'm on schedule for a change.

    Gotta run to get ready for the TV show after that.

    We have highest deficit relative to our GDP among 35 advanced economies because of a shortage of tax revenue, mostly from corps and wealthy. Our spending on social programs is among lowest of these 35 economies, and we bring in the fifth-lowest total revenue as a share of GDP.

    This guy just can't go a day without being a dickhead:

    In the beautiful Midwest, windchill temperatures are reaching minus 60 degrees, the coldest ever recorded. In coming days, expected to get even colder. People can’t last outside even for minutes. What the hell is going on with Global Waming? Please come back fast, we need you!


  26. How did these people get ahead in business:

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/schultz-walks-back-denunciation-medicare-for-all

    Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz walked back his denunciation of Medicare for all Tuesday night, downgrading his insult from “un-American” to “unaffordable.”

    “It’s not that it’s not American,” Schultz told CNN’s Poppy Harlow. “It’s unaffordable.”

    The fact is, we are already "affording" it with profits on top of it. It's called the insurance industry. What's not affordable is our current healthcare system!


  27. Somavision,

    I am sorry I am not the best man to ask for hedges, I do have some as you mentioned already,

    But not enough to cover my Ports. In a great extend my cherry calls in a way serve as a hedges.

    Phil is the man there and he aswered already your question.


  28. LOL. Look at GLD and GOLD spiking as Powell speaks!


  29. Phil, any recommendations for a new AAPL position? I was in a long term spread (short $140 puts, long 150/165 BCS) that expired earlier this month when apple was around 157 (so still made a profit, no complaints about that!). 

    Now that its out of my account would love to get AAPL back in my portfolio eventually. Just wondering if you'd add now? or maybe wait to see if this little post earnings pop comes back a little?

    Anyway, would love to know your thoughts, I'm not on the webinar but if you answer on there I'll check out the replay when I can

    Thanks


  30. So, did I miss anything?

    Seems like Powell is making all the right noises so all is well.  /NQ even past the 2.5% mark!

    What volatility?

    And, of course, the Dollar is tanking as we have no intention of tightening.

    So bad we even make the Euro look good! 

    Now all we have to do is not piss off China…

    Schultz/StJ – It's not that complicated an issue, other countries with universal health care spend 7-10% of their GDP on coverage and we spend 17% on partial coverage – clearly we're doing something wrong.

    AAPL/CRS – A bit chasey after a 10% run.  My goal would be to find a $20 spread that pays $40 to start and plan on selling puts if they pull back and just be happy with 100% gains if they don't pull back.  The 2021 $150 ($33)/180 ($18) bull call spread is $15 on the $30 spread that's half in the money – that's a good one or $140 ($38.50)/180 ($18) for $20.50 – something like that…

    It's way too low in the channel to sell short-term calls but imagine that, if you had the $140/180 spread for $20 and AAPL got to $200, you could sell 1/2x the June $200s (now $1.20) for $10.50 (the price of the $165s) and that would give you $5.25 per long and you could use that money (AFTER the trade works) to roll the short $180s to the $190s and then you could do that again the next 6 months and twice more next year and you could end up with a $140/220 spread for net $20 – even without selling puts…


  31. I'd take the /YM short below 25,000 with tight stops above if I could watch it closely.


  32. Held up into the close, that's nice.

    Off to BNN…


  33. Fed went from 4 rate hikes to zero and from balance sheet reduction on autopilot to flexible. All in the course of 1 quarter. Just pitiful. The Fed is the market's bitch.


  34.  

    Tesla prelim Q4 $1.93 vs $2.02 S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $7.23 bln vs $7.09 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

     

     

    Microsoft misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line 

     

     

    Qualcomm beats by $0.11, misses on revs; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revs in-line 


  35. FB reports.

    Stock up big in after hours.


  36. MSFT guides in-line, but is keeping capex up to meet demand.  The CFO talked about difficult comps from last year, facing this year. It will be interesting to see how the stock reacts.  It looks like the tailwind of cloud market share gains from retailers moving away from AMZN is still there, but growth comps are getting tougher.  It will be interesting to see how the stock moves from here. 


  37. Microsoft’s Azure revenue growth slows, shares fall



  38. 1 number that proves the shutdown was a GOP disaster






  39. Italy Falls Into Recession as Output Shrinks