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Which Way Wednesday – Beige Book Edition

More Fed data.

That's what we're waiting for today as the Fed will release their Beige Book, which covers the end of the shutdown period and should give us a read on how damaging the shutdown has been to Q1 earnings.  As you can see from the chart, the Atlanta Fed's estimate of growth in Q1 is pretty close to zero while the "consensus" estimate of leading economorons is just under 2% – that's a pretty wide gap and it's going to matter A LOT which way that line begins to bend.

For the moment, the markets are hanging onto hope that the US and China have finally worked out their differences and that the Governement won't shut down again this year and Brexit won't be a total disaster and, of course, that all those warning signs that have been flashing in the economy are temporary (from our self-inflicted wounds) and we will get back to growth very quickly.  Despite my skepticism, that is how we've been playing the market as our Member Portfolios are generally bullish – with a few hedges – "just in case".

I would still be happier if the market made a nice 10-20% correction and stayed down long enough to consolidate for a proper move up but it doesn't look like the powers that be are willing to let that happen – and that includes China – who went to great lengths to prop up their own markets this week as well.

The OECD cut it's Global Outlook – again – and warns more cuts may be ahead, reducing the Global Groth Rate from 3.5% to 3.3% and Australia's GDP just missed their growth forecast by the same 0.2%, at 2.3% vs 2.5% expected.  Italy has given up on the US and Europe for that matter and has joined China's "Belt and Road" trade initiative – making them the first G7 Nation to economically defect to greener pastures in China while China, however, has not trouble trading with the US – sending a record $419.2Bn worth of goods to America in 2019.

U.S. trade gap's jump in December pushes 2018 total to $621 billionThe annual deficit in goods and services that Trump seemed to care so much about has INCREASED 12.5% ($68.8Bn) to $621Bn DESPITE the tariffs so Trump has now INCREASED the Trade Deficit by $119Bn during his first two years in office.  Isn't that GREAT???  Trump constantly cites the Trade Deficit as evidence of the failure of his predecessors’ trade policies - will his party now hold him accountable to the same measurments?  LOL – of course not!  

And we are "saved" by the export of our services as the Goods part of the trade deficit, which Trump usually cites, is now $891.3Bn, up $83.8Bn (10.4%) for the year.  In Services, we have a $270.2Bn surplus – maybe we should stick to what we're good at and embrace the idea of being a service-based economy rather than trying to make America great by going back to a 1950s model economy?

We did export $2.5Tn worth of stuff, led by Oil and Airplanes and usually we export a lot of Soybeans, but Trump's tariffs but the brakes on that and shipments dropped $4Bn in 2018 (and the poor farmers are suffering for it).  Now we're starting a Trade War with India as Trump is trying to please his sponsors from the Medical Equipment Industry, who wanted to jack up prices but India said "no thank you" as they have rules against greedy corporations ripping off consumers when they are in dire need. 

Image result for trump diplomacy cartoonThis is likely to push yet another critical trading partner into China's arms and one struggles to understand Trump's long-term strategy here – unless, of course, it's to undermnine the United States' leadership role in Global Commerce and Diplomacy – in which case he's doing a fantastic job!  

And North Korea restarted their Nuclear Missile Progam.  

Are we great yet?

 


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  1. Good morning, All!

    It's webinar day! Join us at 1pm!

    https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1070855453502484749


  2. Good Morning



  3. We now seem to be picking a trade fight with India. It looks like this administration likes to pick fights where we get pummeled for a while (like with China) so that they can claim victory when they negotiate a return to the previous state. Of course in the meantime, people suffer and need to be bailed out! Winning…


  4. And how about that great love we get from N. Korea… Back to where we were 2 years ago where they build missiles again. Another great diplomatic victory there. #2020CantComeSoonEnough


  5. Socialism is killing people:


  6. Healthiest/Stj, it would be interesting to see that data with an obesity overlay


  7. Good Morning!


  8. I am sure that there is some correlation Mike!


  9. These trade deals really helped the trade deficits. #MAGA:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-trade/us-trade-deficit-jumps-to-10-year-high-in-2018-idUSKCN1QN1M4

    The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that an 18.8 percent jump in the trade deficit in December had contributed to the $621.0 billion shortfall last year. The 2018 deficit was the largest since 2008 and followed a $552.3 billion gap in 2017.

    The trade deficit has deteriorated despite the White House’s protectionist trade policy, which President Donald Trump said is needed to shield U.S. manufacturers from what he says is unfair foreign competition.


  10. Good morning!  

    I can't even see the indexes on TOS anymore as they are so squeezed into their range:

    Big Chart starting to look like Spitting Cobra pattern – coiled high for a quick strike lower!  

    Socialsim/StJ – I keep hearing people say these Socialist countries have 40% tax rates but people don't seem to understand that most countries don't have state and local taxes – so really not worse than ours and the trade-off of free Health Care ($24,000/yr for my family) and Education ($500,000 for 2 kids) seems like a good one to me!   Not to mention National Retirement Programs that aren't about to go bankrupt…


  11. J.Jill, Inc. Announces $1.15 Per Share Special Dividend

    QUINCY, Mass. — March 6, 2019

    J.Jill, Inc. (NYSE:JILL) today announced that its Board of Directors has declared a special dividend of $1.15 per share, which will be paid on April 1, 2019, to shareholders of record at the close of business on March 19, 2019. The aggregate payment will be approximately $50.0 million and will be funded through available cash on hand.


  12. Phil,  would this be a good time to start a position in WBA or would you wait for lower?  Looks like support could be around $60.  Thanks!


  13. As I'm going to be in CA next week with a lot of meetings, I'm going to do early portfolio reviews:

    Butterfly Portfolio Review:  $151,344 is up $11,743 since our 2/13 reviewWe dumped GE on 2/25 and I also added in WHR, which we added late on 2/13 (so the fills are 2/14).  

    Other than when we got burned in the Dec dip, we've been pretty steady gaining 10% per quarter – AS PLANNED – and still the Butterfly Portfolio remains our most consistent, year after year.  

    • AAPL – We're pretty aggressively long with the 5 short puts and it's a massive, $135,000 spread, currently valued at net $45,637 so about $90,000 of upside potential (not even counting additional short call and put sales) makes this fantastic for a new trade.

    • DIS – Right on track and this is a $26,250 spread currently priced at net $16,420 so $10,000 more to make on the spread but we're also collecting over $3,000 per quarter in premium for a potential $18,000 more over the next two years so this one's a keeper!  Actually, the 5 2020 $90 puts are mostly dead at $1.50 so let's buy those back ($750) and sell 10 2021 $100 puts for $6 ($6,000) because I'm very confident DIS is worth way more than $100.

    • MDLZ – This is a proper Butterfly Play where we bought long puts solely to protect us, "just in case" and the calls also are outside the range.  The real action here is the short calls and puts we sold $2,650 against $7,500 worth of puts and calls, leaning a bit bearish (more puts, close to the money) as we thought MDLZ was toppy in late Jan.  They've gone higher since but no worries and our goal here is to just grind out the premium sales – we don't expect to "win" on the 2021 puts or calls – it's all about collecting $1,750 on the call side 8 times ($14,000) and maybe $2,000 on the puts is $16,000 back on $7,500 for an $8,500 (113%) profit.  See – it seems boring but the results can be pretty exciting over time!  

    • OIH – Better than it was but doesn't get traction, which is annoying.  I suppose we should sell 10 July $17 calls for $1.30 ($1,300) as that's $5,200 we can recover while we wait.  They can't really hurt us as we can just roll them to a cover (2021 $21s are $1.30) and, of course, if OIH goes up the -$2,625 on the short puts can reverse to a $4,750 profit – so we're not going to cry if OIH shoots back to $24 are we?

    • WHR – Still has that new trade smell and good for a new one!  In this case we have a $30,000 spread that we've sold $5,250 worth of puts and calls against and it's all on track at net $6,669 so great for a new trade with $23,331 upside at $150 (close already) PLUS whatever we make selling puts and calls along the way (maybe another $20,000).  THAT IS WHY THIS PORTFOLIO CAN MAKE THIS KIND OF MONEY WITH JUST A FEW POSITIONS! 

    So the 5 positions we have are looking to generate $140,000 in profit over the next two years, which would pretty much double the portfolio but up 140% from our base $100,000 so a nice, annual return rate – if all goes well.  Of course it doesn't ALL go well and that's why we were up 40% last year and not 70% but, if you only TRY to be up 40% – you may only end up 20%, right?


  14. Phil / GE

    Yesterday you posted this

    GE/Jabob – That's why we got out – never trust those spin-off deals.

    Are you out of GE or is this WAB you were referring to?


  15. 7 Ways to Invest in Water



  16. iPhone sales are falling, and Apple’s app fees might be next


  17. Hi Phil,

    What do you think of UNH? Overpriced? Got down to $212 in December, then up past $270 recently, now back down….I have a couple of May $250 puts, sold at $5.00 when the stock was around $268 a share. 30 delta at the time. I was thinking of rolling out to the Jan 2021's $210 strike, where I can still get a credit for rolling…..Too early to roll down? I'm afraid these could get away from me even farther if we have that 10-20% correction that sticks…..Thanks…



  18. WBA/Robert – Sure, I think this is a bit silly but all Pharma could be down all the way into the election out of fear the Dems will push reforms.  

    GE/Jeddah – In the Butterfly Portfolio, we dumped out of GE on 2/25 as I didn't trust the split so we never got the WABs either.  

    UNH/Sun – I used to love them as a growth stock 10 years ago but that was at $20 (split-adjusted), not $32.  At about $230Bn ($239) with $12Bn in profits, they are priced around right but now with 300,000 employees – I don't see the easy path to growth they had when they had 100,000.  

    Year End 31st Dec 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E CAGR / Avg
    Revenue $m 122,489 130,474 157,107 184,840 201,159 226,247 244,454 264,836 +13.1%
    Operating Profit $m 9,623 10,274 11,021 12,930 15,209 17,344     +12.5%
    Net Profit $m 5,625 5,619 5,813 7,017 10,558 11,986 14,251 16,024 +16.3%
    EPS Reported $ 5.50 5.70 6.01 7.25 9.50 12.2     +17.3%
    EPS Normalised $ 5.50 5.70 6.01 7.25 9.50 12.2 14.6 16.6 +17.3%
    EPS Growth % +4.1 +3.6 +5.5 +20.6 +31.1 +28.3 +20.0 +13.5  
    PE Ratio x           19.8 16.5 14.5  
    PEG x           0.99 1.22 1.06
    Profitability

    There are several proposals to limit the profits taken by Pharmacy Benefit Managers (Optum Health), which is about 1/2 of UNH's revenues – the managed care, where we originally invested, has become a much smaller part of their business and they spent big ($22Bn debt) to get into the PBM business.  

    This model has generated significant criticism lately for good reason. Commercial insurers complain that pharmacy benefit managers are not passing through the rebate revenue they should. In Medicare, the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission has consistently raised concerns that pharmacy benefit managers are not choosing the lowest-cost drugs. And recent work by 46brooklyn suggests that pharmacy benefit managers are charging Medicaid managed care organizations, or MCOs, much more for generic drugs than they are paying pharmacies.

    So, with their business potentially under fire, I see UNH as not that compelling at 20x earnings.  15x is $180ish – that's where I'd be willing to go.  If you sold May $250 puts, they are $16.50 so down $11.50 and the 2021 $185 puts are $10.50 – I'd be more comfortable with those BUT, if UNH does fall another 20% ($50) the price of the 2021 $230 puts is $25, so you could still see a lot of pain – even if it holds that line.


  19. Russell really taking a dive – failing 1,550.  



  20. Thanks Phil…after reading that I think I'll bail and do something else with the proceeds…..


  21. Phil

     Do we have a trade on QCOM

     Thanks

     


  22. Aren't the close to a new trade deal with China? Bring back Kudlow…


  23. Good plan Sun.

    Well the BBook was better than I thought, not much damage from the shutdown and almost all the negatives are from self-inflicted wounds.

    • Ten out of 12 Federal Reserve districts saw slight-to-moderate economic growth in late January and February, with only Philadelphia and St. Louis reporting flat economic conditions, according to the Fed's Beige Book report.
    • The government shutdown led to slower economic activity in about half of the districts and affected sectors including retail, auto sales, tourism, real estate, restaurants, manufacturing, and staffing services.
    • Residential construction activity was steady or slightly higher across most of the U.S., but residential home sales were generally lower.
    • Majority of districts saw modest-to-moderate gains in employment and labor markets remained tight for all skill levels.
    • Prices continued to increase at a modest-to-moderate pace, with several districts noting faster growth for input prices than selling prices.
    • A few districts continued to report upward price pressures from tariffs on certain goods and services. Several, though, noted that the price of steel, which has been impacted by tariffs, had stabilized or fallen recently.
    • The three major U.S. stock averages have pulled up from session lows; S&P -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.6%, and Dow -0.4%.

    What hurt was Williams downgrading GDP to 2% – that makes Trump's tax cuts a complete disaster.  

    • New York Fed President John Williams sees U.S. GDP growth slowing to about 2% this year, down from just above 3% for 2018.
    • The moderation isn't necessarily cause for alarm, but rather a "new normal," and meshes with slower growth in the labor force and productivity.
    • "From the perspective of monetary policy, the overall picture of the economy is about as good as it gets: very low unemployment, sustainable growth, and inflation just about at our 2% goal," he said in remarks at the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday.
    • Of course there are risks to consider as well, such as geopolitical uncertainty, and Williams stresses the Fed's response will always depend on the data.
    • "We’ll consider the full range of data, the headline statistics, the market indicators, and we’ll listen to our business contacts on the ground, as we aim to keep the economy on its current course of a strong labor market, sustainable growth, and 2% inflation," he said.
    • Previously: Fed's Powell notes elevated global uncertainty in Congressional testimony (Feb. 26)

    Certainly nothing we expect to be at record highs for.

    I shorted /RB at $1.7634 with a stop at $1.765 – just looking for a quick penny.  


  24. /RB/Phil, shorted at 1.7834?


  25. Yes, not $1.7634 so stop is $1.7685.

      


    • Amazon (AMZN -1.1%) will shut all 87 of its U.S. pop-up stores by late April, according to WSJ sources.
    • An Amazon spokesperson tells the WSJ: “After much review, we came to the decision to discontinue our pop-up kiosk program."
    • The small shops display products like smart speakers, tablets, and Kindles and exist in malls, Kohl's stores, and Whole Foods locations in 21 states.
    • Amazon plans to expand its physical bookstores and stores devoted to four-star and above rated products from its e-commerce platform.
    • Recent reports suggested Amazon plans an additional move into the grocery space that could include a chain with lower prices than Whole Foods.
    • Facebook (FB +0.6%) chief Mark Zuckerberg seems to be signaling a philosophical change to the company's approach, with a new note outlining a shift to a "privacy focused" future.
    • Facebook and Instagram have been the digital equivalent of a town square, he suggests: "But people increasingly also want to connect privately in the digital equivalent of the living room. As I think about the future of the Internet, I believe a privacy-focused communications platform will become even more important than today's open platforms."
    • "I understand that many people don't think Facebook can or would even want to build this kind of privacy-focused platform — because frankly we don't currently have a strong reputation for building privacy protective services," he adds.
    • But Facebook will work in that direction in the way it's developed WhatsApp, he says, by focusing on the most fundamental and private use case of messaging, and then build added value atop that.
    • In the next few years, Facebook will "rebuild more of our services" around the ideas of private interactions, encryption, reducing permanence, safety, interoperability and secure data storage.
    • Facebook (FB +0.7%) is adding new resiliency and scale by building out two new long-haul fiber routes in the Eastern U.S.
    • The new routes will provide direct connectivity between data centers in Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina — and the company will sell excess capacity through a new wholesale subsidiary.
    • That investment should be a boon for local, regional and other third-party providers along the way. The project will take 18-24 months, starting sometime this year.
    • "Unlike a retail telecommunications provider, we will not be providing services directly to consumers," Facebook's Kevin Salvadori says. "Our goal is to support the operators that provide such services to consumers. We will reserve a portion for our own use and make the excess available to others."
    • The new unit, Middle Mile Infrastructure, will operate as a wholesaler or (where necessary) as a telecom carrier.

    • General Electric (GE -7.6%) is mired in its worst two-day slump since November following yesterday's revelation that its industrial businesses will post negative cash flow this year and today's analyst reaction.
    • CEO Larry Culp's efforts not to "sugarcoat" the "multiyear turnaround" in the company's power business prompted J.P. Morgan's Stephen Tusa to say his Wall Street-low $6 price target might be too generous.
    • "We believe this is a broken business that is running out of backlog needed to feed an installed base that is now declining," Tusa said about the power division.
    • "The cash bleed in 2019 is going to be big, very big," says Melius Research analyst Scott Davis. "It is clear that a very big restructuring announcement is coming and the money to do it will be large. There is no easy way out of this mess."
    • GE shares have closed below their 200-day moving average for 533 straight sessions, the longest such stretch since FactSet data is available going back to January 1972, but have held above the 50-day MA since Jan. 4, 2019.
    • An independent evaluation commissioned by Match Group (MTCH -0.4%) put its Tinder at about $10B, according to Cheddar sources.
    • Match wanted the new valuation as part of a lawsuit between the parent company and a group of early Tinder employees, who allege Tinder's valuation was manipulated during a 2017 bank analysis that set the value for stock options.
    • In the wake of dealing with a number of scandals, Deutsche Bank (DB +0.5%) cut its bonus poolfor 2018 to less than EUR 2B ($2.3B), ~10%-15% less than 2017, Bloomberg reports, citing a person familiar with the matter.
    • Many employees' bonuses are being cut severely and some bankers in New York and London will get zero payouts, according to people with knowledge.
    • The German lender's equities trading unit lost ~$750M last year and the bank has considered closing its entire equities operation.
    • Previously: Cerberus's Zames tasked with Deutsche Bank turnaround: WSJ (March 5)
    • Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) short sellers are down $5.49B or 29% YTD in mark-to-market losses compared to the $3.89B mark-to-market profits picked up in 2018, according to S3 Partnersdata.
    • Alibaba remains the biggest global short with total interest amounting to $20.8B.
    • BABA shares have gained 18% in the past three months as optimism grew about the US-China trade relations compared to the 2.9% growth for the S&P 500.
    • Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFTbrings its previously announced South African data centers online, becoming the first major cloud player providing local service to Africa.
    • IBM operates data centers in South Africa, but its services aren't as broad or deep. Amazon Web Services plans to bring its South Africa data center online in 2020.
    • Microsoft originally planned to bring its centers online last year. Its Office 365 and Dynamics 365 will become available later this year.
    • The company expects cloud computing service demand to triple in Africa over the next few years.
    • Shares of Dean Foods (DF -7.8%) are crumbling after a brutal assessment by S&P Ratings on the food and dairy company.
    • Mounting industry and operational issues are cited by S&P, which made its second ratings cut on Dean in a month.
    • "It is highly uncertain whether the company can successfully turn the business around over the next year," warns analyst Raina Patel.
    • The ratings agency sets a Negative outlook on Dean Foods and drops the credit rating to CCC+ from B-.
    • Dean Foods traded at an all-time low of $3.02 earlier in the session.
    • Nomura Instinet lifts its forecast on 2019 Macau gross gaming revenue growth to +1% from -3% due to a "less dire outlook" for VIP gaming activity than was previously in the hopper.
    • Analyst Harry Curtis sees an opportunity for investors in the beat-up sector on the revised forecast.
    • "Our experience has been that when opinions are predominantly on one side (negative), the risk/reward is generally skewed to the other (upside)," he advises.
    • Curtis thinks that if EBITDA multiples revert to historical averages, then total returns including dividends should be +36% for MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM), +22% for Melco Resorts & Entertainment (NASDAQ:MLCO) and +19% for Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN).
    • Texas' ERCOT power grid operator warns projected record demand for electricity and tight reserves this summer could result in a higher chance of alerts asking customers to conserve energy.
    • ERCOT says its current planning reserve margin – the difference between total generation available and forecast peak demand – is a historically low 7.4%.
    • A decline in natural gas prices due to record and growing production from shale formations such as the Permian Basin caused power prices in the Ercot North hub to drop to an average of just $33.86/MWh over the 2014-18 period vs. an average of $41.37/MWh during the five years ending in 2013 and $57.15/MWh during the period ending in 2008.
    • Some of the biggest power companies with operations in Texas include units of Sempra Energy (NYSE:SRE), CenterPoint Energy (NYSE:CNP), American Electric Power (NYSE:AEP), NRG Energy (NYSE:NRG) and Vistra Energy (NYSE:VST).
    • Cleveland Research cuts its Micron (NASDAQ:MU) 2019 revenue estimate to $24B from $25.5B citing DRAM price headwinds.
    • Cleveland attributes the headwinds to higher competition, weak end-demand, and customer inventory consumption.
    • The firm says current NAND trends will likely bring the industry under cash-cost in Q2 while the second half could become more balanced if output is reduced.
    • Micron shares are down 4.6% to $38.15. Peers Intel (INTC -1%) and Western Digital (WDC-3.5%) are along for the ride.
    • The Bank of Canada maintains its target for the overnight rate at 1.75%, noting that the economic slowdown in Canada during 2018's last quarter was "sharper and more broadly based" than it had expected.
    • The loonie sinks 0.5% against the greenback.
    • "After growing at a pace of 1.8% in 2018, it now appears that the economy will be weaker in the first half of 2019 than the Bank projected in January," the central bank said in its statement.
    • Now the bank's Governing Council "judges that the outlook continues to warrant a policy interest rate that is below its neutral range."
    • It appears the Bank of Canada, like its U.S. counterpart, will be waiting and watching before taking any further actions.
    • "With increased uncertainty about the timing of future rate increases, Governing Council will be watching closely developments in household spending, oil markets, and global trade policy."
    • Previously: Bank of Canada maintains benchmark rate at 1.75%; loonie gains (Jan. 9)
    • MoviePass says it is revamping its business in another pivot from its original model.
    • The subscription service says it will work closely with a film-production unit of Helios and Matheson Analytics (OTC:HMNY).
    • MoviePass plans to focus on technological innovation and high-quality content production through three key channels – MoviePass (theatrical subscription service), MoviePass Films (original content production company) and Moviefone (multimedia media information and advertising service). Enhancing box office results for industry partners is still a priority of the new look MoviePass.
    • MoviePass isn't as relevant to theater chains AMC Entertainment (AMC -0.4%) and Cinemark (CNK +0.8%) as it was early last year.
    • "We saw MoviePass' importance to our box office significantly decline each and every quarter. I mean, it was in the low single digits in the first quarter and in the fourth quarter it was less than 1%," noted Cinemark CEO Mark Zoradi during the company's Q4 earnings call (transcript)
    • Sinopec (NYSE:SNP) plans to sign a 20-year liquefied natural gas supply agreement with Cheniere Energy (NYSEMKT:LNG) once China and the U.S. end their trade dispute, Reuters reports, adding details to previous reports of a potential contract between the two companies.
    • SNP intends to buy ~2M mt/year of LNG from Cheniere starting 2023, according to the report; based on the delivered cost of U.S.-sourced supplies into east China in January at $8.30/MMBtu given by Chinese customs, the 20-year deal would total ~$16B.
    • Cheniere reportedly reached a consensus with the Chinese group in late 2018 on commercial terms after months of negotiations, but the signing of the deal was held back by the ongoing trade friction between the U.S. and China.
    • Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY) is up 5% premarket on light volume in response to its announcement that wholly owned subsidiary Tilray Portugal Unipessoal Lda. has completed a harvest of medical cannabis at its European Union (EU) campus there.
    • The company says it has invested about €20M in the facility which totals almost 250K sq. ft. with room to expand.

  26. QCOM/QC – Yes we do, in the LTP:

    Short Put 2020 17-JAN 50.00 PUT [QCOM @ $55.12 $1.18] -10 4/16/2018 (317) $-6,700 $6.70 $-3.10 $-16.13     $3.60 - $3,100 46.3% $-3,600
    Short Call 2020 17-JAN 70.00 CALL [QCOM @ $55.12 $1.18] -15 6/5/2018 (317) $-6,000 $4.00 $-2.68     $1.32 $0.35 $4,020 67.0% $-1,980
    Long Call 2021 15-JAN 50.00 CALL [QCOM @ $55.12 $1.18] 20 11/19/2018 (681) $21,000 $10.50 $-0.32     $10.18 $1.27 $-650 -3.1% $20,350

    This is leftovers from a position we used to have but I thought $55 was about right for an entry and we didn't panic out when it went lower.  


  27. Phil

    QCOM  Thanks



  28. We Will Survive. Probably.







  29. ECB seen taking tentative step to prop up ailing euro zone


  30. Chinese Tourism Boom That Propped Up Luxury Brands Is Faltering


  31. China Finds a G-7 Ally for Belt and Road


  32. Good morning!

    Indexes down about 0.25% but no major damage.  Oil popped on Iran, Venezuela sanctions $56.85 – funny how Trump says he wants lower oil prices but jumps in with things that are ABSOLUTELY going to raise the price whenever oil threatens to fail $55 ($65 Brent).  

    /RB is up to $1.815 and I like it short again here with tight stops, of course.  

    /NG back to our long entry ($2.825) if you like the rough ride:

    You can tell how the trade talks are going by copper pricing:

    And Soybeans: