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Which Way Wednesday – Russell 2000 Fails at the 200 DMA

Are we recovering from yesterday's dip?

While the Futures are up 0.2%, the Dollar is down 0.2% so that's just a re-pricing against the weak Dollar, rather than a pre-market rally and, even with the currency boost, the Russell (RUT) has once again failed to hold the 200-day moving average at 1,573 and that's what signaled our March sell-off but it won't be a catastrophe until we fail the 50-day moving average at 1,545 – so that's the line we want to watch very closely.  

Yesterday we shorted the S&P Futures (/ES) with a target of 1,580 and we hit that on the nose for a $1,000 per contract gain and then we flipped to the Nasdaq (/NQ) shorts at 7,600 and those paid us another $400 per contract into the close but this morning we're just watching and waiting – mostly hoping oil pops to $65 on inventories (10:30), so we can short that. 

Oil is up from the $59-60 range in late March so call it $59.50 and 10% up from there is actually $65.45 but let's say $65.50 and it's a $6 run so $1.20 pullbacks to $64.30 (weak) and $63.10 (strong) but I'm betting weak holds as we have a holiday coming up.  In either case, we can prettty confidently take a poke at shorting oil at $65 with a tight stop over (0.10) and then again at $65.50 and $66 if we have to and we'll carry our 0.20-0.30 loss knowing it's very likely that, when we get it right, we have a $1.20 ($1,200 per contract) gain to look forward to.

Remember, I can only tell you what is likely to happen and how to make money trading it – the rest is up to you!  

Today we have a $20Bn auction of 10-year treasury notes at 1pm and it's long been a pattern that the market goes down ahead of a 10-year auction as it scares investors into buying bonds, which keeps the rates low and countries that owe $21Tn NEED to have rates a low as possible.   This morning the ECB announced they will keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year "at least" and they will keep re-investing their asset purchases – taking pressure off the Fed to change their policy.

Image result for fed funds rateThe real pressure on the Fed is coming from Washington and, just this morning, Trump's Fed nominee, Stephen Moore called for a reversal of the December rate hike.  The Trump Administration has been pulling out all the stops to get the Fed to go back to emergency level zero-rates, even as they tell you how GREAT the economy is.

Speaking of data, CPI just came in hot at 0.4% vs 0.2% expected by Leading Economorons, probably caused by that 10% pop in oil prices they forgot to take into account because, you know – morons!  Sadly, they will ask the same group of idiots what they predict next month, and the month after that…

As you can see from the Fed's "Dot Plot", rates are supposed to go up to 3% by election year (2020) and a 1% rise in rates will add $210Bn to the Deficit, which is already over $1Tn a year under Trumps 2nd budget (they start in July).  With the weaker economy, higher rates and lower tax collections – it's possible that Trump's 2021 budget projections will be borrowing $2Tn a year on behalf of the American people.  Are we great yet?

Remember, Trump is really good at building things – he just sucks at paying for them – that's why he went bankrupt 5 times and how he turned Atlantic City, NJ into a wasteland as he built $10Bn worth of casinos and stiffed all the local contractors and then the casinos shut down (because all of his projections were ridiculous fantasies) and now all the people are out of work and the town has no money because they gave tax breaks to Trump on the expectations of revenues that never came.  Sound familiar?

There's no particular news that should rally the market back up today but, lately, the pattern has been anything BUT bad news leads to more gains so we'll see how things shake out but next week is earnings – there's going to be plenty of bad news for the next 4 weeks after that!

Be careful out there.

 


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  1. Feds charge 2 dozen in billion dollar Medicare brace scam






  2. How Big Tech Makes Its Money


  3. Any one here?


  4. Oh, thought today was thurs, my bad



  5. Good morning, All!

    Join us for our usual weekly webinar at 1pm!

    https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4549708045535787532


  6. The relentless Tesla short sellers:

    https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-short-sellers-musk-20190408-story.html

    If you spend any time on the Twitter hashtag $TslaQ, you know what this means to Tesla short sellers. They believe the lots full of new Model 3s — and Models S and X vehicles, too — show Tesla has reached a cliff in demand for its vehicles. When the rest of the world finally admits the company’s days as a fast-growth story are numbered, they say, its stock price will crash, creating a bonanza for investors who, like Machine Planet, have bet big that Tesla’s shares are grossly overvalued.

    They might be right and we'll find out soon I think.


  7. Dividends are not as big as they used to be in total return:

    https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2019/04/dividends-dont-matter-as-much-as-they-used-to/

    One of the biggest reasons for this shift is the increase is stock buybacks. In the early 1980s, the SEC instituted a new regulation that gave corporations incentives to repurchase their own shares. You can clearly see how this trend has changed stock yields over time:


  8. Good Morning!


  9. Good morning Phil.  I have BBBY ($18.80) BCS $10 / $12.5 that is deep in the money.  The interesting thing is the short $12.5 still show having $1.025 value of time premium left so it would be nice to capture that.  I was thinking about selling the $10 calls and adding $17.5 / $20 BCS.  The way I see it is BBBY could go up another $1 before the short calls would start loosing and the new BCS would gain from BBBY going up.  Thoughts?


  10. hi you've got the oil run in top of post as a 10 dollar run with 2 and 4 weak and strong but its a five dollar run.


  11. Good morning!

    Russell weakness is the key to the day, NYSE's 200 dma is 12,500, so miles to go before failing that (3%) and, of course, the RUT is still going to make a golden cross soon so failing the 50 dma (1,545) would be the real shocker.  /RTY is actually up today, testingtthe 200 dma at 1,573.

    Banksters being grilled at the House – not likely to be any fireworks but you never know.

    TSLA/StJ- $150 is my target for next year.   Unfortunately, the Jan $200 puts are $21 with the stock at $275 – so I can't really bring myself to play short.  I suppose the 2021 $300 ($85)/230 ($50) bear put spread at $25 would be my favorite way to play and you could lower that by selling 1/2 the $400 calls for $33 so net $7.50 on each $70 spread is a nice way to short TSLA at the moment.

    If they go BK, you get paid early! 

    Tax credits/Albo – Well that could give TSLA some extra life. 

    BBBY/Robert – Well they have earnings tonight so premiums are inflated.  Not sure what your date is but not worth closing early so I'd just wait for another $1.   I think BBBY is still very undervalued at $18.80, which is $2.5Bn after making $425M last year in a transition period and probably $400M this year unless they lower guidance but they beat last Q and seemed upbeat about the future.  So p/e around 6 means there is no scheme involving shorting (and that's what you'd be doing) that I'd endorse.

    Good question to one of the Banksters who dodged a question about making 500x the average employee and he said "the board sets my salary" to which the Congresswoman replied "But you do set the salaries of your employees."  Great point!

    • Tighter financial conditions in Q4 2018 were "too short-lived to meaningfully slow the buildup of vulnerabilities," the International Monetary Fund concludes in its April 2019 global financial stability report.
    • Thus, medium-term risks to global financial stability is broadly unchanged from October.
    • Financial vulnerabilities are elevated in sovereign, corporate, and nonbank financial sectors in several systemic countries, the report says.
    • The IMF also took an in-depth look at house prices, applying insights from past analyses and new statistical techniques to 32 advanced and emerging market economies and major cities.
    • Sees "heightened downside risks to house prices up to three years ahead."

    Oil hit our short target at $64.50 on worse than API inventories.  /RB good short too at $2.045

    • EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude +7.0M barrels vs. +2.3M consensus, +7.2M last week.
    • Gasoline -7.7M barrels vs. -2.0M consensus, -1.8M last week.
    • Distillates -0.1M barrels vs. -1.3M consensus, -2.0M last week.
    • Futures +0.64% to $64.39

  12. Oil/Tommy – Oops, sorry about that, I was thinking 10%.  So the correct pullbacks are $1 to $63.50 (weak) or $2 ($62.50) strong.





  13. Good Morning!   CMG trade update.   CMG continues to inch higher prior to 4/24 earnings.  IVR remains high at 76 so there is more profit to extract from the trade.  We now hold 18 April IC 770/760..680/670. It's worth .62 , so you could cash out now for 75% gain, but I prefer to continue milking it for additional profits.  If you believe it will reach 760 prior expiration ( I don't) buy back the 770/760 for 17 cents.  Now buy back the 680/670 put spread and sell a 700/690 spread for an additional 1.20 credit.  We'll milk this cash cow as long as she allows.  Happy Trading!   




  14. CMG/Iflan – Congrats.  This daily grind higher is insane and people are still raising targets.  Meanwhile, they are expected to earn $3 in Q1, on the way to a $12 year, which is 1/60th of $716 – about 3x what most QSRs trade for.  

    Last year, in Q1, they only made $2.13 so $3 would be very impressive earnings growth and the logic is that they used to make 10% on $4.5Bn in sales and now they have $5.5Bn in sales so, at some point, they should be able to make 10% again and $550M makes the $20Bn valuation seem reasonable but that's the dream – the reality is they made $176M last year, $176M the year before and $22M the year before that but here comes the magic fairy dust!  I think there's bound to be some disappointment on earnings (4/24).

    Year End 31st Dec 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E CAGR / Avg
    Revenue $m 3,215 4,108 4,501 3,904 4,476 4,865 5,297 5,838 +8.6%
    Operating Profit $m 532.7 710.8 763.6 34.6 270.8 258.4     -13.5%
    Net Profit $m 327.4 445.4 475.6 22.9 176.3 176.6 341.8 425.7 -11.6%
    EPS Reported $ 10.5 14.1 15.1 0.77 6.17 6.08     -10.3%
    EPS Normalised $ 10.6 14.3 15.4 1.25 6.47 8.21 12.4 15.6 -5.0%
    EPS Growth % +19.9 +34.6 +7.6 -91.9 +419.5 +26.9 +50.5 +26.4  
    PE Ratio x           86.6 57.5 45.5  
    PEG x           1.71 2.18 2.14
    Profitability

  15. Phil – I have been waiting to play CMG and want to initiate a put spread as an earnings speculation play. What would you recommend? My thoughts are to buy a 725/675 put spread in May for some egg mcmuffin money. 



  16. The Stories We Tell Ourselves to Sell Ourselves



  17. Delta lifts 2019 revenue forecast after quarterly beat



  18. CMG/Willsons – Very dangerous, of course, reminds me of the time we shorted TSLA after they doubled and then they doubled again, so be careful!  What I don't like about a May spread is you have no time to recover.  The spread looks like $20 to make $50 to me and it's only $9 in the money so you're paying $11 in premium just to play.  I would rather buy the Jan $800 ($125)/700 ($68.50) bear put spread at $56.50 and sell the May $650 puts for $13.50 to net in for $43.50 on the $100 spread with the expectation that CMG doesn't fall more than 10% on earnings and, if it does, you can roll (the Sept $565 puts are $13.50) and, if it doesn't fall, it should be pretty easy to get another $10/month selling puts until you have a free spread.  

    • U.S. stocks were mixed as industrial giants Boeing (-1.1%) and United Technologies (-1.1%) weigh on the Dow, now down ~0.1% in late morning trading.
    • The Nasdaq rises 0.5% and the S&P 500 gains 0.2%.
    • By S&P sector, utilities (+0.9%), information technology (+0.6%), and real estate (+0.5%) outperform the broader market as industrials (-0.5%), financials (-0.4%), and materials (-0.3%) lag.
    • Crude oil rises 0.3% to $64.17 per barrel.
    • 10-year Treasury rallies, pushing yield down almost 3 basis points to 2.473%.
    • Dollar Index edges up 0.1% to 97.09.

    • KBHome (NYSE:KBH) and PulteGroup (NYSE:PHM) are raised to neutral from underweight by JPMorgan, recognizing more stable demand as mortgage rates continue to decline.
    • Boosts December 2019 price targets for Pulte by 6% and for KB by 12%.
    • Says "positive momentum" likely to continue in the near-term for the sector.
    • Still "hesitant to ascribe target multiples that are greater than prior mid-cycle valuations."
    • JPMorgan's 2020 EPS estimates stay 5%-10% or more below Street consensus for several names in the sector.
    • KBH analyst ratingsPHM analyst ratings.
    • Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A +0.6%) says it will exit the Baltic LNG liquefied natural gas project led by Russia's Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY) on the Russian Baltic Sea coast.
    • Shell, which has a long history of energy cooperation with Russia, had been studying the possible implications of a recent decision by Gazprom to move toward the full integration of its Baltic LNG and gas processing plants.
    • Shell had developed a technology specifically for the Sakhalin Energy LNG plant and in February said it had created a 50-50 venture with Gazprom that would use Shell’s LNG know-how to develop Russia’s own technology for supercooling gas.
    • The venture was expected to effectively insulate Russia from any new U.S. sanctions on LNG, a sector in which key technology belongs to a handful of global majors.
    • Shell remains a shareholder in the Gazprom-led Sakhalin-2 plant, which produces LNG on the Russian Pacific island of Sakhalin.
    • IMAX (IMAX +0.4%) plans to open the company's largest screen yet at an independent German theater in 2020.
    • "Now, through our new partnership with the Lochmann Filmtheaterbetriebe, the largest IMAX theater in world will reside in Germany and serve as a premium entertainment destination in the country," says IMAX chief Richard Gelfond.
    • The new agreement extends IMAX's recent momentum in Germany, where the company now has 10 theatres open or contracted to open in Germany.
    • On the investor scorecard, shares of IMAX are up 26% YTD.
    • Source: Press Release
    • Levi Strauss (LEVI +4.6%) reported Q1 revenue growth of 7% Y/Y to $1.44B, with growth across all regions; and constant currency +11% Y/Y.
    • Regional sales: Americas $717M (+9% Y/Y); Europe $465M (+3% Y/Y) and Asia $253M (+8% Y/Y).
    • Q1 Gross margin declined by 30 bps to 54.6%; and operating margin improved by 100 bps to 14%.
    • Adj. EBITDA increased 10.2% Y/Y to $234.9M; and margin improved by 52 bps to 16.4%.
    • SG&A expenses were $581.89M up by 3.3% Y/Y.
    • Cash from operations was $56M, compared to $66.17M a year ago; and Adj. free cash flow was $17M.
    • FY19 Guidance: Company expects constant-currency net revenues growth of mid-single digits;constant-currency Adj. EBIT margin flat-to-slightly up; and capital expenditures of ~$190M – $200M and anticipates nearly 100 new company-operated store openings in FY19.
    • Previously: Levi Strauss reports Q1 results (April 9)
    • Goldman Sachs backs up its Buy rating on Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP +0.5%) in a fresh note to clients.
    • GS thinks the coffee story at KDP remains underappreciated by investors.
    • Coffee brands under the control of Keurig Dr Pepper include Peet's, Caribou Coffee, Krispy Kreme, Panera, Hollys Coffee, Tully's Orient Express, Timothy's and Green Mountain.
    • A group of Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY +1.8%) investors are calling on the retailer's board and management team to increase the level of disclosure and transparency when it reports Q4 results later today.
    • In particular, the investors want to know what are the same-store sales, revenues, online sales, gross margins, operating margins, capital expenditures, depreciation, assets and square footage broken out by each of the larger business concepts (Bed Bath & Beyond, Cost Plus World Markets, buybuy BABY, Christmas Tree Shops, and That! and Harmon)?
    • Also of interest is a clarification on the 500-basis point deterioration in gross margin since 2013. How much is attributable to mix shift, promotional activity, lower AUR, increased clearance and changes in initial mark-up?
    • And what specific performance can the management point to that explains why they are "ahead of plan"?
    • Investors participating in the BBBY full-court press include Legion Partners Holdings, Macellum Advisors and Ancora Advisors.
    • Source: Press Release
    • Boeing (NYSE:BA) shares are 1.1% lower in early trade, marking a fourth-straight session decline, after JPMorgan analyst Seth Seifman cut his price target to $430 (from $450) following yesterday's Q1 deliveries data.
    • He also reduced his 2019 adjusted EPS estimate to $19.35 from $20.60 and his 2020 forecast to $22.30 from $23.50.
    • Seifman's general view remains positive, however, and he reiterated an Overweight rating.
    • "At this stage, modeling Boeing requires major assumptions for which there is little basis right now. Boeing is among the companies best positioned to benefit from positive aero fundamentals, in our view, and the company is consciously trying to shape the industry to capture more value for itself, which could mean strong relative performance and potential upside to estimates."
    • New legislation is expected to be introduced by a group of bipartisan lawmakers today to expandthe electric vehicle tax credit by 400K vehicles per manufacturer, according to Reuters.
    • The "Driving America Forward Act" would give each automaker a $7K tax credit for an additional 400K vehicles in addition to the current 200K vehicles eligible for the $7.5K tax credits. The phase-out period would be shortened to nine months. The legislation would also extend the hydrogen fuel cell credit through 2028.
    • The bill is sponsored by Democratic Senators Debbie Stabenow and Gary Peters, Republican Senators Lamar Alexander and Susan Collins and Democratic Representative Dan Kildee.
    • Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) are up 1.92% in premarket trading, while General Motors (NYSE:GM) is 0.65% higher.
    • The European Central Bank will determine precise terms of the next round of quarterly targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTRO-III) at an upcoming ECB meeting, ECB President Mario Draghi during the central bank press conference.
    • "Will also consider whether the preservation of favorable implications of negative interest rates for the economy requires the mitigation of their possible side effect, if any, on bank intermediation."
    • Euro slips 0.2% against the U.S. dollar trading at $1.125, had been as high as $1.129 before Draghi's press conference.
    • "The pricing of the new TLTRO-III operations will take into account a thorough assessment of the bank-based transmission channel of monetary policy, as well as further developments in the economic outlook," Draghi said.
    • Risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remain tilted to the downside, specifically geopolitical factors, the threat of protectionism, and emerging market vulnerabilities.
    • "Ample degree of monetary accommodation remains necessary to safeguard favorable financing conditions and support the economic expansion."
    • He also calls for other policy areas must contribute to increase "longer-term growth potential" and to reduce vulnerabilities.
    • "All countries should reinforce their efforts to achieve a more growth-friendly composition of public finances," he said.
    • Previously: ECB sees key interest rates unchanged for rest of the year (April 10)
    • There's a lot of information for airline investors to chew on today.
    • First off is the latest government read on pricing. Air fares fell 0.6% M/M in March, according to data compiled by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Fares have now been lower in four of the last five months. Fares were down 2.9% Y/Y in March on an unadjusted basis (BTS data).
    • Delta's earnings arrived also arrived in ahead of expectations this morning, with profit up 31% Y/Y and revenue at a record for the quarter. The company also guided Q2 EPS comfortably higher. Meanwhile, JetBlue's capacity in March rose 13% Y/Y and the long-awaited jump across the Atlantic appears imminent.
    • Macy's (NYSE:M) announces the launch of a narrative-driven retail experience in 36 stores nationwide in a bid to increase store traffic.
    • The company says the program called STORY at Macy’s will deliver new concepts through a signature blend of unique collaborations, narrative-driven merchandising and dynamic event programming.
    • The department store operator says businesses such as MAC Cosmetics, Crayola and Levi's Kids plan to partner with it on STORY to show off hundreds of curated products and host engaging community events.
    • "The discovery-led, narrative experience of STORY gives new customers a fresh reason to visit our stores and gives the current Macy’s customer even more reason to come back again and again throughout the year," Macy's CEO Jeff Gennette on the concept.
    • Source: Press Release
    • Alexion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ALXN) resumed with Outperform rating and $161 (17% upside) price target at Raymond James.
    • Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB) resumed with Market Perform rating at Raymond James.
    • Cerner (NASDAQ:CERN) upgraded to Buy with a $76 (21% upside) price target at SunTrust after adding $1.2B to its stock repurchase program and board pact with Starboard Value. Shares up 1% premarket.
    • Guardant Health (NASDAQ:GH) upgraded to Buy with an $84 (27% upside) price target at BofA/Merrill Lynch after eviCore coverage of Guardant360 lung cancer test. Shares up 5% premarket.
    • Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) upgraded to Buy with a $77 (17% upside) price target at UBS citing the upside with Descovy in PrEP and filgotinib in arthritis. Analyst Carter Gould still expects a Q1 EPS miss, however. Shares up 1% premarket.
    • AmerisourceBergen (NYSE:ABC) downgraded to Underperform with a $76 (2% downside risk) price target at BofA/Merrill Lynch. Downgraded to Neutral at Evercore ISI.
    • First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR+4.3% pre-market after Goldman Sachs adds the stock to its Conviction Buy List and raises its price target to $75 from $64, matching a Street high.
    • Goldman's Brian Lee sees "a backdrop of improving fundamentals in the global solar landscape" in addition to "continued strength in the U.S. utility-scale development pipeline, a tailwind FSLR is well positioned to harvest."
    • Lee also cites FSLR’s ability to expand its capacity in Malaysia, which "could add as much as 23% upside to our 2021E EPS, all else being equal."
    • Bank of America Merrill Lynch lifts EPS estimates on Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ:BBBY) on its view that drivers for EPS growth exist.
    • "While it’s very unlikely that BBBY will return to peak margins, after years of overspending and numerous cost inefficiencies, we see no reason that BBBY couldn’t see hundreds of basis points of improvement," advises BAML.
    • "The biggest opportunities appear to be in advertising, tech spending, leases, coupon expense, product sourcing and compensation."
    • Analyst Curtis Nagle and team raise the 2019 EPS estimate on Buy-rated BBBY to $1.96 from $1.71 and take the 2020 EPS estimate to $2.49 from $1.54. A price objective of $25 is set.
    • Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond are up 2.11% in premarket trading.


    • HSBC downgrades Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) from Hold to Reduce saying it could take some time to see benefits from the recent Services push.
    • HSBC: "Services makes ecosystem more sticky but won't necessarily enable Apple to recruit more consumers to iPhone we feel."
    • PT raised from $160 to $180, implying a 10% downside.
    • More action: Bank of America Merrill Lynch raises its Apple PT from $210 to $220 seeing "more upside" to iPhone units.
    • The firm estimates that 24% of the 900M iPhone install base are older than the iPhone 6, and half of those are candidates for an upgrade. Of the remaining, new iPhones, the firm thinks 80% are candidates for an upgrade.
    • Benchmark cuts its Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC) estimates for Q4 from $0.55 EPS and $3.65B to $0.33 EPS and $3.6B.
    • The FY20 view drops from $6.73 EPS with sales of $16.6B to $4.87 EPS with $15.3B in sales.
    • The firm cites less confidence in a NAND chip recovery in 2019, pointing to weak results from Micron and Samsung. Benchmark says any recovery that does happen will be weaker than expected.
    • Among the catalysts over the next year, says BMO analyst Daniel Salmon, are two Star Wars-themed attractions opening in U.S. parks this summer, the launch of Disney+, and the possible restart of the buyback program.
    • Salmon continues to find Netflix and Amazon preferable to Disney (NYSE:DIS), but is comfortable being a buyer of all three.
    • He upgrades to Outperform, with $140 price target suggesting 20% upside.
    • Shares are up 0.7% premarket to $117.69.
    • Investor Day is tomorrow.
    • MBA Mortgage Applications
    • Composite Index: -5.6% (W/W) vs. +18.6.
    • Purchase Index: +1.0% vs. +3.0%.
    • Refinance Index: -11.0% vs. +39.0%.
    • 30 year mortgage rate at 4.40% vs. 4.36%.
    • Canada is "constantly looking at ways to refresh the [tariff] retaliation list [against the U.S.]… to have an even greater impact," Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland told reporters, adding to the recent trade tensions taking place across the globe.
    • David MacNaughton, Canada's ambassador to Washington, told U.S. agricultural reporters on Monday that Canada could announce a new list of targets as soon as next week, which would include a significant number of agricultural products.
    • Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) is exploring purchasing a big stake in its Chinese electric vehicle joint venture partner JAC Motor and has tapped Goldman Sachs as an adviser on the plan, Reuters reports.
    • It's the latest step by foreign automakers to increase their stakes in their Chinese joint venture partners or in the ventures themselves since Beijing relaxed ownership rules last year in the world’s biggest car market.
    • AT&T (NYSE:T) is internally discussing selling its HBO Europe business as company aims to reduce a debt pile of $170B, FT reports.
    • Comcast-owned Sky (OTCPK:SKYAY) would be an "obvious buyer” given its relationship with HBO. Sky distributes HBO content in the UK, Germany and Italy.
    • HBO became part of AT&T after the telecom group closed its $85B acquisition of Time Warner Inc last year.
    • Shareholders are suing the U.S. planemaker for alleged securities fraud violations and concealing safety deficiencies in its 737 MAX planes, whose fatal crashes and grounding led to a $34B market value tumble.
    • According to the complaint, Boeing (NYSE:BA) "effectively put profitability and growth ahead of airplane safety and honesty" by rushing the 737 MAX to market, while its growth prospects were undermined by an alleged conflict of interest from retaining broad authority from the FAA to assess the plane's safety.
    • On Tuesday, Boeing said Q1 aircraft orders fell to 95 from 180 a year earlier, with no orders for the 737 MAX following the worldwide grounding.


  19. Wilsons.  CMG/earnings play…..In years past I used to do a lot of earnings plays, but not so much anymore.  As Phil said….dangerous.  They really are a crap shoot.  Fun, but just gambling.  I now like what I call post-earnings plays.  Let the earnings pass, wait a few days for things to settle, then trade the trend.   So with CMG I'm playing pre-earnings, with the trend steadily upward.  Come earnings I'll be out completely, then maybe back in later, maybe not.  


  20. All right, my voice survived the Webinar. Finally getting better. 

    I added another /RB short so 2 at $2.057 at the moment and down around $650 but I'm going to stick with it I think.

    Oil still at $64.50 and the EIA report was not very bullish.

    Someone suggested a play on JO which I really like for the OOP, let's add:

    • Sell 10 JO Sept $35 puts for $3 ($3,000)
    • Buy 10 JO Sept $30 calls for $5 ($5,000)
    • Sell 10 JO Sept $40 calls for $1.10 ($1,100)

    That's net $900 on the $10,000 spread that's $3,700 in the money to start with a $9,100 (1,010%) upside potential.  Margin is high at $6,766 is the only drawback but we have it to spend and it's only 6 months.  


  21. Phil

    Jo play.You mean calls instead of 2 puts not?


  22. Apologies for any similar posts before me but should these be calls:

    Buy 10 JO Sept $30 puts for $5 ($5,000)

    Sell 10 JO Sept $40 puts for $1.10 ($1,100)

    ?


  23. JO/OOP, Kgab, Tangled – Yes, sorry, I did mean calls. I do have to get my brain scanned – it's getting worse!

    /RTY really blasted back up:

    Dow's lagging:

    /NKD doesn't have BA in it, why is it down with the Dow?


  24. I'm going to see Shazam tonight, which is really Captain Marvel but DIS used Marvel's Captain Marvel in a movie first so now the original Captain Marvel has to title it's movie Shazam, which is what Billy Batson says to turn into Captain Marvel – get it?

    Image result for captain marvel

    Related image

    I'd really like to know what legal wranglings led up to this mess.


  25. Bunch of selling into the close but most of the gains are holding (except Dow red).








  26. Asian shares fall as Fed minutes show data may tweak stance



  27. What happens now Brexit has been delayed until October 31?