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Monday Market Movement – Earnings Season Finally Begins!

Related imageIt's earnings season!  

Finally we get to see whether or not these record highs come with record earnings!  We got off to a bang on Friday with beats from FRC ($1.26 vs $1.22 expected), INFY ($9.36 vs $8.95), JPM ($2.65 vs $2.35), PNC ($2.61 vs $2.60) and WFC ($1.20 vs $1.10) so so far, so good it seems and, this morning, Citigroup (C) came in at $1.87 vs $1.79 expected and Goldman Sachs (GS) is $5.71 vs $5.02, M&T Bank (MTB) $3.35 vs $3.29 and we're waiting for Schwab (SCHW) and Washington Federal (WAFD) but things are looking good in banking

Goldman Sachs, of course, gained 2.5% on Friday so today's earnings is giving them no additional lift and that's another sign of a toppy market as the whole banking sector went up on just a few earnings reports so woe unto any of them who fail to deliver going forward.  We still have plenty of Banks to hear from but, more interesting, will be the companies who may have been affected by the Government Shut-Down in Q1 – that's where we're expecting to get some resistance.

Earnings Whispers has the above cool charts for earnings and I love the "implied move" into earnings as it can alert you to seriously mis-matches that we can potentially take advantage of like Micro-Vision, where options imply a 50% move but the average move is only 11.3%.  MVIS is essentially a penny stock, trading at $1.03 but it does have options abd a fun way to play them is to sell the August $1 calls for 0.40 and sell the August $1 puts for 0.30 so you are collecting 0.70 and anything less than an 0.70 move between now and Aug 16th (expiration day) is your profit.  

Sketchers (SKX) on the other hand, usually makes violent moves on earnings yet it's priced for a relatively calm 7.6% move so we can play them to be more violent than that but we can also use our heads and, though we love to be bullish on SKX when they are low (and we are aggressively long in our Long-Term Portfolio but we will be covering), they are now toppy in their channel, trading at 18x earnings and you can sell July $36 calls for $3 so anything under $39 (up 13%) is a profit on the short calls – a real no-brainer for us as we already have a long spread to cover.  

SKX Short Put 2020 17-JAN 30.00 PUT [SKX @ $34.41 $0.00] -10 7/16/2018 (277) $-5,280 $5.28 $-2.31 $-3.58     $2.98 $0.00 $2,305 43.7% $-2,975
SKX Long Call 2020 17-JAN 23.00 CALL [SKX @ $34.41 $0.00] 40 7/20/2018 (277) $25,600 $6.40 $6.55     $12.95 $0.00 $26,200 102.3% $51,800
SKX Short Call 2020 17-JAN 27.00 CALL [SKX @ $34.41 $0.00] -40 7/20/2018 (277) $-22,000 $5.50 $4.40     $9.90 $0.00 $-17,600 -80.0% $-39,600

Since our long spread is deep in the money and net $9,225 out of a potential $16,000, we have $5,775 left to gain so there's no reason to take it off the table but we can sell 10 of the July $36 calls for $3 and pick up $3,000 while we wait – not a bad use of our spread, right?

We'll be reviewing all of our Member Portfolios this week and, when we can wring an extre few thousand Dollars here and there – it's very nice bonus income for us during earnings season and, as more and more reports come in, we get a better feel for which stocks we'll need to cover and which stocks still have room to run as their sectors start chiming in.  At the moment, we're still playing on the side of caution as we think the market is toppy – so we're more on the lookout for shorting opportunities.  

We don't have a lot of data this week but we have 6 Fed speeches, 3 today and 2 of those are Charlie Evans and the other is Rosengren, who are all hawkish – or what would pass for hawkish in this flock of doves we call the Fed.  Kaplan, tomorrow, is one of the Fed's most doveish members but he seems like a hawk compared to Bullard and Harker on Wednesday so I'm wondering what they are up to, steering us from doveish to hawkish as the week progresses?

Earnings will make this an exciting week and April options expire on Friday – so plenty of chances for fireworks.  We'll just have to see how things progress.

 


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  1. No tax cuts for the middle class:


  2. We are not being overtaxed:


  3. Good Morning!


  4. Options are expiring on Thursday this week. Markets are closed for Good Friday. 


  5. Good morning! 

    Good to be home, haven't seen the place all month except for one day.  

    Futures perking up a bit into the open so now we're green but volume has been such a joke all month – it's hard to take anything seriously. 

    Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume
    Apr 15, 2019 290.00 290.35 290.25 290.30 290.30 981,691
    Apr 12, 2019 290.00 290.47 288.26 290.16 290.16 69,668,400
    Apr 11, 2019 288.83 288.84 287.58 288.21 288.21 55,093,100
    Apr 10, 2019 287.77 288.39 287.31 288.29 288.29 52,601,500
    Apr 09, 2019 287.72 288.08 286.70 287.31 287.31 66,142,300
    Apr 08, 2019 288.10 288.91 287.37 288.79 288.79 53,566,300
    Apr 05, 2019 287.92 288.63 287.60 288.57 288.57 58,621,700
    Apr 04, 2019 286.78 287.46 286.01 287.18 287.18 48,997,500
    Apr 03, 2019 287.32 287.76 285.75 286.42 286.42 68,243,200
    Apr 02, 2019 286.04 286.23 285.09 285.97 285.97 40,070,400
    Apr 01, 2019 284.70 286.16 284.40 285.83 285.83 77,617,900

    Good chart, StJ – summarizes the situation quite nicely.  If you consider that with the fact that we're under-taxed by maybe 10% of our GDP ($2Tn/yr) and that that entire $2Tn should be coming from Corporations – we would have no debt at all and even surpluses if people weren't such morons giving away our nation to the Corporations.

    Good Friday/Buckeye – I forgot about that, thanks! 


  6. The reason corp taxes are so low is they’re using tax loopholes in your favorite socialist countries to avoid paying them. If we figured corp tax as Worldwide profit x % corp rev attributable to the US market x US corp tax rate, we’d have all the revenue we need without raising tax rates  


  7. Goldman is taking down the Dow of all things as Revenues were a bit of a miss.  C as well.  

    Loopholes/Dawg – So you're saying Socialist countries have lower tax rates than Capitalist ones?  That's interesting…  I still think we need a straight-up VAT with no exemptions so cheating is not a thing and everyone pays their share – that's the kind of Socialism I can really get behind.  We have a $22Tn GDP so a 25% VAT would raise $5.5Tn, which is about $2Tn more than we raise now and the only people suffering would be those paying less than 25% tax.  It would also be a way of making sure that any foreign products/services sold in the US also paid their proper taxes.  

    It's not hard at all to fix things – you just need to stop making exemptions for corporations though I would kick $500Bn back to the poor to mitigate the 25% (probably all of it from the bottom 50%).  

    • Barclays advises "taking advantage and adding selectively" to Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) positions ahead of the earnings print on April 25.
    • The firm says Q1 is likely to be mixed like Q4, but that sentiment is "already bracing for this." Barclays predicts 41% growth for AWS, which brought in $7.4B at a 46% Y/Y growth in Q4.
    • Key quote: "Stepping back, investors rarely get a chance to buy AMZN at 19x Ebitda, or 15% below recent highs."
    • For Q1, analysts estimate $59.74B in revenue and $4.73 EPS.
    • Barclays is getting ahead of next week's Facebook (FB -0.4%) earnings with a recommendation to add to positions, as 2018's controversies could fade further into the background with solid results.
    • There's probably not as much upside as in Q4, but internal checks point to another strong quarter, analyst Ross Sandler says: "The investment community is skeptical around core FB’s user growth and engagement, so any color around stable-to-improving user trends should go a long way toward improving the narrative." Comps vs. last year's problem quarters should mean revenue beats, and the F8 developer conference April 30-May 1 should provide another catalyst, Sandler says. (h/t Bloomberg)
    • The firm is Overweight on the stock with a $210 price target, implying 17.8% upside from current $178.41.
    • Shares of Callaway Golf (NYSE:ELY) are up 3.55% and Acushnet Holdings (NYSE:GOLF) is 2.05% higher in the wake of Tiger Woods win in the Masters.
    • The Woods victory dominated social media yesterday and is thought to have raised the profile of golf just ahead of the spring/summer season.
    • Nike (NYSE:NKE) is up 1.05% to outpace broad market averages and lead the Dow 30 on the day, with some investors betting the company will see increased interest in its large line of Tiger Woods golf apparel.
    • Previously: A win for Tiger is a win for Nike (April 15)

     

    • Shares of William Hill (OTCPK:WIMHFOTCPK:WIMHY) are down 2.2% in London trading after the bookmaker was bruised when Tiger Woods won the Masters.
    • The U.K. company with a large presence at the sports books of U.S. casinos reportedly lost a "seven figure" amount on the Woods win due to its unbalanced position on the sentimental bettors pick.
    • MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM) went into the tournament with exposure on Woods, but was able to fade it over the course of the tournament to break even.
    • Daily fantasy sports provider FanDuel lost $2M on the Masters.

    Zillow direct home transactions live in Dallas-Fort Worth

    • Zillow Group (ZZG) says its Offers home transactions are now active in Dallas-Fort Worth, its second Texas market following Houston.
    • It marks the ninth market for Zillow Offers, where the company directly buys homes and preps them for turnaround and sale. It's planning to be active in Miami, Minneapolis, Nashville, Orlando and Portland by fall.
    • The company says that a year after launch, Zillow Offers receives a request for a cash offer every five minutes, making up $100M in demand value every day.
    • Empire State Survey: 10.1 vs. 6.8 consensus, 3.7 prior (unrevised).
    • New Orders 7.5 vs. 3.0.
    • Shipments 8.6 vs. 7.7.
    • Number of Employees 11.9 vs. 13.8.
    • Goldman Sachs's (NYSE:GS) Q1 reflects a muted start to the year with net earnings of $2.25B, or $5.71 per share falling from $2.83B, or $6.95 per share, a year ago.
    • Beats average analyst estimate of $5.02.
    • "We are focused on new opportunities to grow and diversify our business mix and serve a broader range of clients globally," says Chairman and CEO David Solomon.
    • Boosts quarterly dividend to 85 cent per share from 80 cents.
    • Q1 revenue of $8.81B, missing consensus of $8.89B, increased from $8.08B in Q4 2018, and fell from $10.1B a year ago. By segment:
    1. Investment Banking revenue of $1.81B, fell 11% Y/Y and was essentially flat from Q4 2018.
    2. Institutional Client Services revenue of $3.61B rose 49% from Q4, fell 18% from the year-ago quarter; FICC revenue of $1.84B jumped 124%  from Q4, but fell 11% from Q1 2018; equities revenue of $1.77B, up 10% Q/Q, down 24% Y/Y.
    3. Investing & Lending revenue of $1.84B fell 4% Q/Q and fell 14% Y/Y.
    4. Investment Management of $1.56B fell 9% Q/Q and fell 12% Y/Y.
    • Q1 net interest income of $1.22B rose from $991M in Q1 and $918M in Q1 2018.
    • Q1 provision for credit losses of $224M increased from $222M in Q4 2018 and $44M in Q1 2018.
    • Common equity tier 1 ratio of 13.7%% at March 31, 2018 vs. 13.3% at Dec. 31, 2018.
    • Tangible book value per share of $198.25 at March 31, 2018 vs. $196.64 at Dec. 21, 2018.
    • Goldman shares slip 0.1% in premarket trading.
    • Conference call at 9:00 AM ET.
    • Previously: Goldman Sachs beats by $0.69, misses on revenue (April 15)
    • Gogo (NASDAQ:GOGO) releases preliminary results with consolidated revenue expected between $197M to $200M (consensus: $201.95M) with a net loss between $17M to $20M, adjusted EBITDA from $35M to $38M, and $188M in cash and equivalents.
    • The company also launches a $900M offering of senior secured notes due 2024.
    • "What do I know about branding," tweets President Trump. "Maybe nothing (but I did become president)."
    • Trump's 3-point plan: Fix the 737 MAX, add some great additional features, and REBRAND the plane with a new name.
    • "No product has suffered like this one. But again, what the hell do I know."
    • Boeing (NYSE:BA) shares are off marginally premarket.
    • Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) is removing several thousand electric bikes from service in its bike-share program in New York, Washington and San Francisco because of a braking problem.
    • The company's bike share division is working to replace about 3,000 pedal-assist bikes in the three cities with traditional bikes to prevent service interruptions.
    • Lyft already operates about 17,000 traditional bikes in those cities.
    • Germany has no plans to stop Chinese telecom equipment supplier Huawei from participating in the build up of its 5G internet if it complies with all the security requirements, FT reports.
    • Huawei is up against mounting worries that its technology will enable Chinese espionage through those high-speed mobile networks. It so far faces bans from the U.S., Australia, New Zealand and Japan.
    • Related: Nokia (NYSE:NOK) and Ericsson (NASDAQ:ERIC)
    • Expanding its digital business and North American footprint, French advertising giant Publicis (OTCQX:PUBGY) will pay $4.4B to acquire Alliance Data's (NYSE:ADS) Epsilon marketing unit, seeing a 12.5% accretion to headline, diluted EPS from the deal.
    • Catalent will announce this morning acquire privately-held Paragon Bioservices for $1.2B, in a bid to expand its gene therapy manufacturing capabilities.
    • Meanwhile, in one of the biggest solid-waste company acquisitions in more than a decade, Waste Management is reportedly near a deal to acquire rival Advanced Disposal Services for nearly $2.9B.
    • "If the Fed had done its job properly, which it has not, the Stock Market would have been up 5000 to 10,000 additional points, and GDP would have been well over 4% instead of 3%…with almost no inflation," President Trump tweeted on Sunday.
    • "Quantitative tightening was a killer, should have done the exact opposite!"
    • ECB President Mario Draghi took the rare step of sounding concern over the independence of the Fed in the face of the constant criticism and cautiously stuck to the message that an upturn in the European economy is still possible in the second half of 2019.
    • Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Instagram and WhatsApp were down in much of the world for several hours on Sunday, in the latest failure to hit the three social media platforms.
    • The company told the BBC: "We're sorry for any inconvenience," but gave few other details.
    • Facebook experienced one of its longest outages in March, when some users around the globe could not access Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp for more than 24 hours.

  8. Yodi,

    I have IBM spreads. 5 piece of 2021 110/145 and 5 of 2021 115/145

    And I have sold 4 of 18apr 146 calls for $1.78.

    IBM is now $143.76 and the 144 calls have a loss of -$366 at the moment.

    Tomorrow earning. Is it wise to keep these calls?
    thanks 


  9. Phil,

    Canadian Banks. I was reading about the short thesis our there by Steve Eisman on Canadian banks being leveraged 25 to 1 and capital ratios of RY and BMO seems to be inflated and equal to US banks. What are your thoughts on them and what would be a good short position set up ?

    Thank you,

    Pat 




  10. For low-income people, employer health coverage is worse than ACA


  11. Phil/taxes: It’s not a question of rates, it’s a question of loopholes that need to be closed. see this link for just the most famous example of tax avoidances schemes where multinational corporations use loopholes in foreign national tax codes to shuffle profits to no or low tax jurisdictions. Tax laundering is what it amounts to.  

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/double-irish-with-a-dutch-sandwich.asp


  12. Phil/Dis- any adjustments for ltp? We only half covered the April short calls


  13. kgabor115

    IBM a hard nut the Apr 146 has still a premium of 2.66 against the div indicated at 1.57. So no one would call on your 146 caller. However the stock my jump 3$ so at todays stock price plus 3$ you will be hardly ITM still gives you enough time to roll. you would only face assignment if the caller (146) would be 100% ITM taking the div in to consideration. Just remember most stocks fall after the div declaration by the amount of the div. I would hang in at 146 not paying 2.66 premium..

    Just for consideration I still hold the 140 and 141 Apr caller and as you can see a much harder decission.

    At present I am going to all my positions due April 18 and have not come yet to I in the alphabet. I let you know later.


  14. CMG Update:   So, anyone in this trade with me knows this  IC we entered on 3/18 has paid off HUGE.  .  So now it's time to lock in the profits.  Sometime today, buy back most or all of your remaining call and put spreads.  I'll summarize at EOD.  Happy Trading!


  15. kgabor115

    I got to IBM for me still to much premium in 140 and 141 caller 6$ and 5.50 respectively so I wait and see. Not worth paying +- 3$ premuim for a 1.57 div. We will see.


  16. RY/Pat – Well I'm not following them closely enough to know that off the top of my head but maybe it's true.  They are both up in their channels and both trading at 12.5x so neither one is an obvious short so I'd default to who has better options and nether really do but you can buy RY Sept $75 puts for $1.10 and BMO Sept $75 puts for $1.10 and they are both around $77.50 but BMO is lower so I guess I'd play that and hope for a dip but, if earnings are solid – I think I'd take the small loss off the table.  

    Loopholes/Dawg – Well that's closed by VAT because we don't give a crap what happens overseas – if something is sold in America, it's taxed in America.  States use sales taxes and it works great – very little hassle chasing people down to collect.

    DIS/Dave – We'll do all our adjustments this week I was hoping they'd pull back a bit but doesn't look like it.

    IBM/Kgab, Yodi – Our Stock of the Year is doing well!

    /SI hit $14.80 this morning but popped back despite the rising Dollar. 

    Coffee grinding higher:

    /NG still sucking:


  17. Phil did you fill the new OOP JO short call position?


  18. Phil IBM Stock of the year doing well, but what do you think of my opinion The proof of the pudding is in the eating!!!


  19. SIG for memebr still holding the Apr 26 putter I did roll to May 31 23 put for 1.50!!!


  20. Oh no, Notre Dame is on fire – big one!  I went to Christmas Mass there once – all in Latin – so great!  

    JO/Tangled – They were $1 that afternoon, close enough.  Now 0.80 but they should come back.  

    IBM/Yodi – It is an expensive dividend and should move the stock a bit, I agree there's no sense in bailing early on the short calls though the calls expire before the dividend is paid so you need to look forward to your next move sooner than later.  Either way, there will be no premium on those calls on Friday so no sense paying it now.

    • "That's to help support the inflation outlook and make sure it's sustainable," Charles Evans, the president of the Chicago Federal Reserve told CNBC.
    • Says he doesn't consider the Fed's December rate hike to be mistake.
    • As recently as September and December, Evans thought there would be a couple more rate hikes.
    • “I had been thinking that inflation was finally going to be solid, hit 2% on a sustained basis — maybe go over a little bit," he said.
    • Inflation, though, has been falling short of the Fed's target of 2%.
    • 10-year Treasury prices rise, pushing yield down almost 2 basis points to 2.549%; 2-year Treasury yield unchanged at 2.398%.
    • The Federal Reserve's mandate is two-fold: Strive for full employment and keep inflation under control, i.e. at ~2%.
    • The Fed started a months-long review of strategy because inflation hasn't been rising as expected as unemployment declined to near a half-century low.
    • Now Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida hints that the central bank may look at the full-employment side of the of its objective and may support the case against further monetary tightening, Bloomberg reports.
    • Specifically, at a Minneapolis Fed conference last week, panelists discussed the connection between monetary policy and the portion of national income that goes to wage earners--also called labor share.
    • The assumption that low unemployment automatically increases inflation depends on the balance of power between employers and workers.
    • In the past year, growth in pay accelerated while consumer price inflation slowed. During that time, corporate profit margins haven't contracted much, so in Clarida's framework there may be more room to absorb higher wage bills without raising prices.
    • That could add to arguments against further rate hikes.
    • Previously: Draghi takes aim at Trump as he targets Fed (April 15)

    • Monday's decline continues in midday New York trading as real estate and financial stocks tug down on the three major U.S. stock averages.
    • The Nasdaq slips 0.4% and S&P 500 falls 0.3%. The Dow, meanwhile, declines 0.3% as Goldman sinks 3.2% after Chairman and CEO David Solomon calls the quarter a "muted" start to the year.
    • By S&P industry sector, real estate (-0.9%) and financials (-0.6%) lag the broader market, while consumer staples (+0.5%), utilities (+0.2%), and health care (+0.1%) are the only sectors to manage gains.
    • Crude oil slides 0.9% to $63.29 per barrel.
    • 10-year Treasury yield falls 1.5 basis points to 2.554%.
    • Dollar Index unchanged at 96.92.
    • While Goldman Sachs (GS -3.2%) and Citigroup (C -0.1%) Q1 earnings exceeded consensus estimates, investors weren't impressed and bank stocks, in general, slumped.
    • Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLFslides 0.8% in early afternoon trading, backtracking from Friday's 1.8% gain, its largest since April 1.
    • Goldman Chairman and CEO David Solomon stressed that the bank is "focused on new opportunities to grow and diversify our business mix" and called the results a "muted" start to the year. Goldman's stock is the biggest decliner in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is down 0.2%.
    • The only U.S. megabank that's up, Wells Fargo (WFC +0.7%), is the only one that fell on Friday.
    • The other big banks: Bank of America (BAC -1.1%), JPMorgan (JPM -1.4%), Morgan Stanley (MS -1.2%).
    • Regional banks followed suit, as M&T Bank (MTB -2.2%) fell despite Q1 EPS beating its average analyst estimate. Others: PNC Financial (PNC -0.3%), Axos Financial (AX -0.9%), Bank OZK  (OZK -2.6%), Fifth Third (FITB -1.6%), KeyCorp (KEY -1.3%), CIT Group (CIT -1.2%).
    • Many non-U.S-based multinational banks are faring better--Lloyds Banking Group (LYG +0.9%), Barclays (BCS +0.6%), Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS +0.5%), and Credit Suisse Group (CS+0.6%).
    • Previously: Goldman seeks to diversify business mix after muted Q1 (April 15)
    • Shares of Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) are down another 1.90% as selling pressure following the Disney+ unveiling extends for another session.
    • MarketWatch's Jeffrey Reeves says it's way too early to ring any sort of death knell for the streamer due to the new competition.
    • Reeves notes that what Disney offers in star power, Netflix offers in first-mover advantage and a native digital platform that is "in-step" with how streaming-video audiences consume content. "Maybe it won’t crank out blockbusters with big merchandising deals, but you can be sure that Netflix will keep you binging on stuff that connected with you personally. That adds up to staying power, and should support the recent price increase in its service," he writes.
    • Netflix reports earnings after the closing bell tomorrow. A few NFLX consensus marks to watch: revenue $4.50B, operating income $408M, EPS $0.57, domestic streaming net adds +1.38M, international streaming net adds +6.52M.
    • Shares of Netflix are up 29% YTD even after a couple of shaky days of trading.
    • Starbucks (SBUX -0.5%) announces that it's partnering with Cypress Creek Renewables and U.S. Bank on a portfolio of solar farms across Texas.
    • As a part of the deal, two solar farms developed and built by Cypress Creek will provide enough energy for the equivalent of 360 Starbucks stores in Lone Star State, including stores in Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, Plano and Arlington.
    • Starbucks is separately investing in six Cypress Creek-owned solar farms in Texas.
    • Source: Press Release
    • MedMen Enterprises (OTCQB:MMNFF +1.4%announced Q3 2019 unaudited total revenue of $54.9M (+11% Q/Q), of which systemwide revenue was $36.6M (+22% Q/Q); PharmaCann of $15.5M & Other of $2.8M.
    • Gross margin across its retail operations was 51%.
    • Systemwide retail revenue, including revenue from pending announced acquisitions, is based on 32 retail stores.
    • The operational retail locations, including pending acquisitions, represent 39% of the 82 total stores that the Company is licensed for across 12 states.
    • The transition of the MSCI All China Indexes to the MSCI China All Shares Indexes was originally scheduled for June 1, but that's been shifted back to November 26.
    • The change is being made to eliminate the multiple methodologies upon which MSCI covers China-related shares. It would boost the weighting of A-shares in MSCI indexes to 20% from 5%.
    • Names in the red: Alibaba (BABA -3.2%), Baidu (BIDU -2.9%), JD.com (JD -4.3%), Bilibili (BILI-5.9%).
    • The Xrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR -2.4%)

  21. That fire in Notre Dame looks really massive… 

    Incendie dans la cahtédrale Notre-Dame de Paris, le lundi 15 avril.


  22. Imagine the artwork that's being lost!


  23. Related image

    Related image

    Image result for notre dame cathedral

    Image result for notre dame cathedral

    Makes me want to cry….


  24. On France24 they said that the roof collapsed! That would be a total loss I think. Unbelievable. They are talking about the fire originating on one of the renovation sites.


  25. You can track progress here - https://www.france24.com/en/live


  26. So horrible to watch the massive fire at Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris. Perhaps flying water tankers could be used to put it out. Must act quickly!


  27. Incredible Just traveling through France. I can see the disaster on TV it will be a complete historical loss.
    The fire brigade cannot reach the roof. In deed they shall use planes to extinguish the fire


  28. I am telling you it is just heartbraking to see this on TV


  29. It's simply unbelievable! I didn't think I would see that in my lifetime.


  30. The last time I was at Notre Dame 2 years ago  I walked the stairs  to the top, its so sad to see this its a world treasury I told my nephew last night   to allow a day there next year

    On his trip to Europe with the high school band he is 16


  31. Speaking of tragedies:


  32. By the way, notice $85 to $70 is 20% and you're working with 15 points so 3-point overshoot to $67 and the bounces are weak at $73 and strong at $76 and that fails and look out for the 40% correction to $55 where the weak bounce is now $6 ($61) and strong $67 before they are seen as stabilizing.  


  33. Well, $17 would be 20%, of course but that just makes the overshoot more likely.  Lacking any real historical consolidation, it's best to round off to the big numbers on the chart.  


  34. I don't think that we are done going down with LYFT! I know other companies don't make money or little money, but for their model (and UBER) to work, they need a lot of things to happen – it's not simply more people as they lose money on each ride now. 


  35. Final CMG post:   Closed entire position for total profit of $3.70 per contract over 17 days.   I will hold no CMG positions through earnings.  And yes, Notre Dame Cathedral……..      Cynic that I am,…..I wonder who did that?      


  36. A friend from Paris just called.  Her apartment overlooks Notre Dame.  She sent a photo taken from her window (which I could not succeed in dragging into this post).  She said the fire looks like a volcano and that it is still out of control.  This loss is devastating for France and for us all; one thousand years of history up in smoke.  Evidently, they are not using airborne tankers to fight the fire out of fear that the entire structure will collapse.


  37. Not much action today other than a world landmark burning down!  

    LYFT/StJ – Uber is even more out of control than LYFT with their $100Bn valuation – same thing will happen.  I guess, down the road, they get rid of the drivers and become profitable but, until then, there's no way to make real money in that model.  

    $3.70/Iflan – Not bad!  


  38. The French are certain to bring back a Notre Dame, that will once again be the shining center of Paris…. :)


  39. Who Goes Public When? Tech Companies Maneuver to Stand Out in the Horde


  40. Bed Bath & Beyond to close 40 stores


  41. Notre-Dame Will Be Rebuilt, Macron Says, as Fire Is Extinguished