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Non-Farm Friday – Markets Bounce Back Despite Trade Deadline

Hope reigns eternal.  

Today we'll see how well the Non-Farm Payroll Report goes at 8:30 but we're up another quarter-point at the moment (7:30) in anticipation of a strong report, led by Government hiring for the 2020 census.  Even with the extra workers, only 180,000 jobs are expected so it's going to be an easy upside surprise and wages are expected to be up at a 3.2% annualized pace with, of course, no sign of inflation – that the Fed can see, anyway…

On the right is the ShadowStats chart of REAL Inflation, which is pegging near 10% using a consistent methodology since 1980 – before the Government began tweaking the measurments to make sure the Data was no longer able to show inflation.  In essence, what the Government has done is like measuring the temperature in Celcius instead of Farenheit in order to show you how they have cooled off the planet because they didn't bother changing the units on the chart – it's a huge scam and it's getting more and more out of control as the lies get bigger and bigger to cover it up.  As noted by ShadowStats:

Consumer Price Index Has Been Reconfigured Since Early-1980s
So As to Understate Inflation versus Common Experience

  • CPI no longer measures the cost of maintaining a constant standard of living.
  • CPI no longer measures full inflation for out-of-pocket expenditures.
  • With the misused cover of academic theory, politicians forced significant underreporting of official inflation, so as to cut annual cost-of-living adjustments to Social Security, etc.
  •  Politicians look to expand further the concept of artificially-suppressed cost-of-living adjustments in current budget-deficit negotiations, through the use of the Chained-CPI.
  • Use of the CPI to adjust retirement benefits, private income or to set investment goals impairs the ability of retirees, income earners and investors to stay ahead of inflation.
  • Understated inflation used in estimating inflation-adjusted growth has created the illusion of recovery in reported GDP.

Image result for real inflation rateSo the GDP is measured against inflation and, if you pretend there's no inflation you can then attribute all price increases to growth in your GDP while telling retirees and wage-earners that there's no inflation so they don't need more money to live in a $20Tn economy than they did in a $10Tn economy.  See how the scam works?  It's not just wonky fun for Economists, real people are being hurt by this charade every day!

I know this seems extreme and crazy and you may think "why would we not know about this" but it's like those frogs that sit still in water as it's brought to a boil – over 30 years, it's very hard to see what is happening to you as every year you adjust your expectations a little bit lower and put up with a bit more crap until it's just what you are used to.  Do you really think things have NOT gone up 4-5 times, as ShadowStats suggests?  Let's look at some things we know are true:

Image result for inflation items 1980

  Image result for inflation items 1980

I think stamps are a good, minimum benchmark as they reflect the cost of running the post office with all those employees and trucks and buildings, etc. and they are only allowed to break-even so profit isn't a part of the change.  As noted in Chart 2, stamps jumped 48.5% just since 2000 and now they are 0.55 – up another 12% in the last 4 years.  Since 1975 (that's the last year they did big surveys) a stamp is up 0.42 or 323% – a lot closer to ShadowStats than the Government's oficial figure.  

Even if you are losing just 1% of buying power compared to the official CPI each year, it means you have 50% less buying power than you did in 1969, when we were happy and free and thought one Million Dollars would make us very, very rich:

relates to Woodstock, Nixon, Stonewall and the Man on the Moon: 50 Years Since 1969

Peace and love – what were we thinking???

8:30 Update: Only 75,000 jobs!  Not only that but April has been revised down by 39,000 jobs and March has been revised down by 36,000 jobs so we've also been lied to for the past two months and that makes the net of this month ZERO jobs as 39 and 36 revised down add up to exactly the 75,000 that have been created.  The only reason the market isn't tanking immediately is because the Dollar is diving 0.5% and holding it up.  25,800 is a good short on the Dow (/YM) and 2,850 in the S&P (/ES) and 7,300 on the Nasdaq (/NQ) and 1,510 on the Russell (/RTY).

When the Dollar stops falling (probably 96.50), the bounce will hit the indexes harshly and we should get a snap down but keep very tight stops on any shorts as weak job growth and low wage growth (0.2%) can put the Fed back on the table for some more QE and, after all, isn't that what really drives our economy?  Why create jobs when we can just print more money, right?

Image result for us money supply graph

Image result for trickle down reaganomicsSee, as long as we keep creating Trillions and Trillions of Dollars and giving them to rich people, they will be able to buy stocks and get richer and richer and richer and that wealth will then trickle down and make us all rich – it's the perfect plan that's been working since Reagan proposed it back in the 70s which George Bush Sr. called "Voodoo Economics" but is now called the Official Policy of the United States and its Central Bank.  

All those Trillions of Dollars do raise the price of the things you buy – especially if they are things rich people also buy like cars (up 722% in 50 years), homes (up 462%) or college (up 1,023%).  Those are not things our government weighs heavily in their measurments as they concentrate on things like toothpaste and toilet paper – that we all use every day but a rich person doesn't brush their teeth 5 times more often than a poor person but they can buy 5 houses and 5 cars and send 5 kids to Ivy League Colleges.  Poor people – not so much…

As we go into the weekend, Mexico is trying to stave off tariffs but it's foolish as this isn't about them or meeting Trump's insane demands.  Like China, Trump does not care about getting a deal done, he just wants to put an additional $75Bn tax on the American people since he's gotten very little blowback from the $125Bn tax he's placed on Chinese products – mostly because he keeps saying, over and over again, that "China is paying for it" and the Billionaire-owned media never challenge him on it and the average Americans seem to have their brains thoroughly washed via repetition.  

Image result for propaganda repeat quote

This gives Trump $200Bn to dole out to his friends and supporters (many of which are in his own family, by coincidence) and he's certainly not looking to cut off that gravy train of off-budget income.  What Dictator would?

Have a great weekend, 

- Phil

 


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  1. Tanking / Phil – Futures must be taking off because there will be new political pressure put on the Fed to lower rates. As you said yesterday, we are truly addicted to low rates now – this is the fuel to the market. It finances all these buybacks.


  2. Good Morning!


  3. phil  I hope your right about "the bounce will hit the indexes harshly and we should get a snap down". The situation is insane. 


  4. GBTC – Sold 1/2.   


  5. Good morning!

    Incredible that we jump up that way after that jobs report.  You can't play this insanity.  

    Big Chart – BTFD wins again.

    Insane/Den – Insane is the new normal.


  6.  

    CMG

    Chipotle Mexican Grill called a Fresh Pick at Robert W. Baird; remains Outperform, $800 tgt.

     

    Stock pulled back to $636 on Monday.  I should have listened to the BTFD guy ! 


  7. Well, that's what it took for /SI to pop over $15.

    So I guess less jobs is bullish for oil demand now?  #Fdupmarkets

    /RTY failing 1,510 – that's good for a short (tight stops above) and we're lined up with 25,950, 2,870 and 7,375.

    CMG/Albo – All dips get bought on that one but I kind of like a short at the $700 line if the market wasn't so irrationally bullish at the moment.

    You can sell 2 CMG July $720 calls for $18.20 ($3,640) and buy 5 July $710 ($30)/680 ($18) bear put spreads for $12 ($6,000) and that's net $2,360 on the $15,000 spread that's $5,000 in the money at $700.


  8. we are over strong bounce lines does that mean no new shorts


  9. US employers add a weak 75,000 jobs; unemployment stays 3.6%





  10. Bounces/Tommy – Yeah, you can't fight the tape.  

    So we got optimistic news re. Mexico and China this morning – that boosted the markets, as usual, despite the scary jobs numbers.


  11. We’ll see how things look after lunch but if we’re still up gonna take a short poke at the highest index, maybe around 2:30 EDT. 


  12. Dollar isn't bouncing, still 96.50 so not too much downward pressure on indexes but still they are coming off highs.  /YM just failing 25,600 so that's a good short line with 2,875, 2,425 and 1,515 on the others but only if they are all crossing under!


  13. Playing CMG; choose the red pill or the blue pill. Book a shrink appointment before and after. This stock cannot be traded for direction.    Stay away because bad things do happen to good people :)


  14. VIX is rising….and green…..algos are continuing to sell into strength. Good spot to short with a tight leash…


  15. Good advice, Winston !


  16. vix climbing 


  17. Midwest flooding ripples through economy, transportation


  18. Walmart CEO: America’s minimum wage is ‘too low’



  19. Another stock that's untradable is BYND.  Came public May 2nd at $25.

    Up another 35% today.


  20. Albo, these guys see TEUM going to zero, they say it's a fraud. Stay alert! I'm getting out on the next bounce.

    http://aureliusvalue.com/research/teum-where-are-the-customers/


  21. MrM!!!  


  22. Wow !  Quite damning thanks.


  23. Phil

    What do you think the reason is for NRZ to be  down  ?

     Thanks


  24. Pharm

     Any thoughts from ASCO ?

    I was looking at MEIP  MEI Pharma, Inc. 

     Thanks


  25. Hi Pharm! Hope all is well, I'll email you. I'm still poking at biotechs, you got me hooked, but no homers yet. 90% go nowhere or go down 90%, it's kind of like venture capital where you need one investment in ten to be huge to cover the other nine losers. So far my only ten-baggers are ARRY and INO, ARRY has been especially fun lately because it's got decent options for short term trades. PGNX has been dead money for a decade but I still have it…

    Take care.


  26. MEIP/qc – they have several targets with shots on goal.  HDAC is a competitive space (things on the market already), as well as the PI3K target (Nektar was dumped by Roche last year for a similar target).  The CDK has a chance, but I need to do a little more research into its MOA and adverse events.  I would let the trees shake out on this one.

    The last oncology recommendation, MGNX did not fair so well, and it was for a targeted therapy!!!  


  27. PLX and PGNX….ugh!

    ARNA was the big one that I recommended a year ago…zoom zoom!!


  28. Short /YMM.


  29. BYND is beyond me….sheesh.


  30. Pharm

     Any thoughts on Forty Seven, Inc. (FTSV)

    The price has dropped

    Thanks


  31. Pharm – I fondly remember ARNA.  It's my recollection that you and also Optrader were involved many years ago.


  32. CMG/Winston – Just hit $715 but, overall, I think lower.

    Oil $54!

    VIX/Pharm – 16.50 still relatively strong.

    BYND/Albo – Crazy, they had good earnings and rose 1.5x the entire IPO price.

    NRZ/QC – I think they are just down with the sector.  I don't see anything specific about them at all.  Lowering rates means refis which means people will get out of wide-spread loans NRZ has made which will lower their forward profits.  That's the logic for selling them off on lower rates, though it's also good for them as it lowers their borrowing cost as well but that's for their long-term, which no one cares about.

    Thanks for ideas Pharm, I'll look them over on the weekend as I think we could use a pick in that sector.  ARNA was fantastic, thanks! 


  33. TEUM - jeepers, went to a meeting and it drops 40% while I'm busy. Out now and spanked. 


  34. MrM – Thanks for the shout out warning. Sorry you joined me in that one.   i was relying on Oppenheimer's research and their $7 target.  Seems they, and unfortunately, we got duped.  My apologies.


  35. Phil  -  Need your advice on closing WSM position

    5 Jan 2020 $40 Call @ 10.35 (sold after earnings at $21)

    -5 Jan  2020 $55 Call @ 4.85 (now 7)

    -5 Jan  2020 $40 Put @ 5.4 (now 1.10)

    I cashed out the long calls after earnings and now looking to buy  the Jan 2021 50/65 BCS @ 6.40 to cover the short $55 call.  Since the goal is to cash out, should I just skip the BCS and buy back the short call which still has $5 in premium or wait for premium to whittle down?  Buying back the short call at $7 still nets me at $21-$ 7 = $14 out of a $15 spread.  I am  looking to use this as a template for cashing out. Thanks and have a great weekend!

     


  36. Wow, are we pinning targets for the camera or what?

    • Dow 26,700 to 24,700 is 2,000 so huge 400-point bounces to 25,100 (weak) and 25,500 (strong)
    • S&P 2,950 to 2,750 is 200 so 40-point bounces (or what I said above) to 2,790 and 2,830
    • Nasdaq 7,850 to 7,100 is 750 so 150-point bounces to 7,250 and 7,400
    • Russell 1,600 to 1,450 is 150 so 30-point bounces to 1,480 and 1,510

    Amazing!  Can we actually get back to the highs?  

    Butterfly back to being up 60%, was 46% on Tuesday so $13,000 of our $22,000 loss back in just two days – that's what I mean when I say you can't start panicking out of things just because the market corrects (which is NOT the same thing as when I say "let's cash out" BEFORE the market corrects).

    June 6th, 2019 at 9:03 am | (Unlocked) | Permalink

    Rotating Butterflies/Tangled – If I felt something wasn't "viable" I'd simply replace it in the portfolio and we add positions as merited but you are missing the point of keeping a nice, simple portfolio that people can manage in a retirement account WITHOUT constant changes.  We just added the MJ trade and we are down $22,000 since our last review but that's still up 46%, which is where we expected to be as planned back in Jan of 2018 – making 30-40% a year.  I said in the last reviews that all of our portfolios were going to take a hit on the pullback and they are – that's not a flaw in the strategy! 

    TEUM/Albo – Yeah, I had my suspicions when looking at them last month:

    TEUM/Albo – I was looking at Yahoo, who may be wrong but not LT Debt, it's $10.3M in payables and $2.9M in "Other Current Liabilities" and $8.6M in "Other Liabilities" – that's all debt to me.  And their "Assets" are $91.7M in "Goodwill" and $39.6M in "Intangible Assets" – in other words, nothing really.  

    Of course, if they do $300M/yr in sales going forward (10x last year), that would wash away all their sins but this is a 138-person company – hard to imagine it but maybe they do have the magic beans….


  37. Phil

    Would you buy NRZ now or wait for the fed  ?

    Thanks


  38. Phil – /NG has dropped below its historical $2.50 bounce point, not good. Lifetime low is $1.60, odds we revisit that? Does UNG decay? If not, seems like a good time to buy a bunch at $20, buy more if it dips, and just wait a year or two?


  39. /YMM – Stops to entry on this small sell off.


  40. FTSV…with that price drop, I would start a small position.  I like the target, although it may be a bit early to get in.  Chart says down…

    ARNA…yes, albo, years ago for the weightloss drug.  Now they are betting all their money on etrasimod, an S1P modulator in UC/Crohns.  They have a few other drugs in earlier development, but with the sale of ralinepag for $800M to UTH, the pot is on etrasimod.  Receptos was bought out for $7B by CELG 3 years ago….and market cap for ARNA is $2.7B.  With $1B in the bank,  if they get bought, it should be in the $5-6B range.  The thing I don't like is they opened an office in Boston…while they have San Diego and Zug as other places.  Why another office??? Seems that the money could be spent more wisely, but what do I know! :)


  41. Albo,- that dip was apparently just to shake me out, heading up again, next stop $100 now that I'm clear :)


  42. ARNA…I just don't know who would buy them at this point. There are a few that could bolster their pipeline, GILD, AMGN, LLY?  but the competition in the space for both S1P and immunology in general is far and wide.  My guess is that they may need Ph3 positive data, and then the suitors line up.  That is years away.


  43. TEUM – Phil, your cursory due diligence was better than Oppenheimer's or mine.

    MrM – I doubt it.


  44. BYND…from Josh Brown:  Small float, early shorts, no public competitors, buoyant market, great story, millennial sex appeal, large total addressable market. This is the recipe for a bubble. All the ingredients are there.


  45. /YMM – Scalped a piece for +30 ticks.  Won't carry the rest over the weekend.


  46. NRZ/QC – It depends if you are an actual long-term coupon clipper or not.  If you want to get into NRZ for the dividends, and not looking for the stock to go up – of course buy it cheap!  Our goal with a dividend stock is to deploy capital and then reduce our basis to $0 as quickly as possible so we have a free stock, paying a dividend and we have our capital back to buy another one and work that one to $0, etc.  Unfortunately, it's a 4-6 year cycle that very few have the patience to follow.  

    With NRZ at $15.13, they are paying a $2 (13%) dividend so you can buy the stock and sell the Jan (no 2021 yet) $15 calls for 0.60 and the $15 puts for $1.40 which knocks $2 off over just 7 months and you'll collect 3 dividends (June, Sept and Dec) for $1.50 so your net/net in Jan is $11.63 and, if you are assigned more at $15, the average is $13.31 and then you collect another $3 for 2021 puts and calls and you then are in 2x at $10.31/12.65 (if assigned) but you'll collect $2 more so $11.65 if assigned to 4x, which is down $3.47 (23%) from where we are now and we're not assuming rolling or any other potential positives and it's only 18 months from now.  Obviously we'd rather not go 8x and 16x but ALWAYS start with an amount you don't mind going 4x on – AT ALL and you'll never be disappointed!

    WSM/Bai – Don't get so attached to your calls.  You did a smart thing taking the money and running at $60, getting $21 for the $40s and now the Jan $55s are back to $7 so the net you collect on CLOSING The $40/55 spread now is $14 out of a possible $15 – why not just be happy with that?  Same goes with the puts – it's done and now you want to look at a possible new position (but I'd wait until I see a proper bottom form).  

    /NG/MrM – Yes, things are really crazy now but I think it's people dumping out of /NG to buy Oil and Gasoline at those silly-low prices (people don't have infinity money to trade so they have to make choices).  UNG does not have terrible decay so remind me Monday and we'll see what looks good on that one.  

    Have a great weekend folks, 

    - Phil


  47. Boy can I call them. BYND UP 40 points!!


  48. TEUM/Albo – That's because I think of a business like a consultant who's valuing the company, not as a stock I hope goes up or down.  I think about how they make money and the environment and the mechanics of what they need to do to get to a higher valuation and whether or not that is likely to happen with the tools they have at their disposal – taking into account their current financial situation as well as the macro environment.   That's a little different than the "trend is your friend" analysis you get from most people!  cool


  49. bai2r In respect to your WSM play, I might say I hold this stock for my armchair trades, as it pays over 3.38%.

    You decided to sell your long of your Jan 20 BCS, however left the short 55 caller nacked! For me a no no,

    as you can see the caller is already ITM. So not to pay a 5$ premium I would go as you already suggested to set up at least a 10X Jan 21 BCS to cover your Jan 20 caller. The stock was already at 74 in Aug last year so it could go up from it's present position. However you could roll the Jan 55 caller still at a later time.


  50. If CMG can go to $800, a Mexican restaurant, it only made sense that bynd would fly up and away too. I was eating them months ago when I could round them up at the grocery. I don't even like CMG!! But obviously I'm in the minority. Living in Calif. ruined me . Love good Mexican, real food.


  51. BYND/Pirate – Great call but don't get too crazy, they are now trading at 5x what the owners of the company AND the investment bankers thought they were worth just a few weeks ago and let's say that, because of UBER and LYFT, they were chicken and asked for $25 instead of $35 that they thought would have been aggressive – we're STILL up $100 (3x) from that!   I think BYND is great and will be a huge company but this is just silly, giving them an $8Bn valuation for a company that is FORECASTING $213M in SALES for the year after LOSING $6.6M for the Q.   

    While there's nothing wrong with the loss it is, as I just mentioned above, an operational issue.  How do you get from $213M in sales and no profits from a company that's been around for 10 years to $400M in PROFITS that justify an $8Bn valuation?  Figure they drop even 15% to the bottom line and you need $10.4Bn in sales so they have to grow the company 5x over what period of time?  

    They raised $240M at a $1.5Bn valuation 10 days ago so they have a lot of money to throw around but only 257 employees to do it with so let's say they double their staff and spend huge for the best people and use a firm to interview and place them all so that, in 3 months (1 Qtr) they have 257 new employees at $75,000 each.  It's only $18.5M but now they all have to be trained and integrated to there goes 2Qs and they can order more processing machines now to double up production to save time but still you are 9 months away from doubling to $400M in sales and a big loss from all the hiring and machine-buying. 

    There's not even any point to marketing because you just can't supply that much but they probably still have to because they have well-funded competition breathing down their necks so really this is an execution race – and those can be very expensive.

    So they have to perfectly execute this 9-month doubling to get to $400M and another 9 months to get to $800M in sales and now it's 2021 and they are still showing a loss and they'll show another loss in 2021 if they keep expanding and they are still only doing LESS THAN 1/10th of what they need to do to justify the CURRENT valuation.  

    You can love the company and what they do (like TSLA) but that doesn't mean they are worth what they are being valued at.

    BYND/Pirate – Seemed tempting at $25 but now $68 so bye bye and good luck to them.  Now they have $240M and I hope they can develop better and better-tasting veggie-meat.  It's something the World could really use.  There were aiming for $19-21 and only just raised it to $25 but the first trade went off at $46 so huge demand for this stuff.  Here's the prospectus.  They did actually have $38M in sales in Q1 and a $9.5M gross profit so $1Bn didn't seem totally crazy on $40M in earnings (25x) but now we're closing in on $3Bn and, even if they can net 20%, they'd have to get to $500M in sales just to get down to 30x earnings so almost 20x growth from here to justify the current trading price.  

    Still, not outside the realm of possibility if it catches on at MCD, Burger King and Wen, right?  They do chicken too so KFC/YUM and, of course, Taco Bell (who would know the difference?).  It's good for the environment and has less chance of contamination than beef and fast food beef isn't good anyway so it's very possible these guys can make a nice dent in that sector and MCD alone consumes 70M pounds of beef a year and BYND's current sales are 9M pounds last year.  So this thing could actually become huge.

    The numbers haven't changed – only the irrationality of the exuberance…


  52. Also, keep in mind this is a massive short-squeeze on a low-float stock – it could reverse very quickly once the poor idiots who shorted them cover. 


  53. Predator-induced collapse of niche structure and species coexistence



  54. Timing the market is hard to do. Just when you think you want to cash out…….

    Stocks Post Best Week of 2019 on ‘Fed Put’ Wagers: Markets Wrap

    (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rallied for a fourth day after weak jobs data added to bets the Federal Reserve will cut rates. Treasury yields and the dollar fell.

    The S&P 500 Index had its best week since November on speculation the Fed will move to shore up the economy as a report showed employers added the fewest workers in three months and wage gains cooled. Technology shares led the advance in equities, while banks sank. The 10-year bond yield extended its weekly slide. The peso rose after President Donald Trump said there’s a “good chance” the U.S. will reach a deal to avert imposing trade tariffs on Mexico.

     

    And it seems Pres. T. is happy with Mexico so that should (might) give the markets a fillip on Monday.

    How often does one see those super strong rallies (perhaps only fleetingly) in periods of fear when markets are plunging. 

    For individual investors, making money is enjoyable, satisfying and easy to believe you did it all on your own – that's why market forecasters seldom get thanks for predicting and standing behind predictions of markets moving to the upside. Because 'losing' money is so painful for individual investors the guts and glory for market forecasters is in making bear market calls and exhorting the liquidation of portfolios. And as none of us know how to 'predict' the moves of the market the reputational rewards are all on predicting the down side – urging investors to stay the course is a thankless task. 

    That's not the same as taking profits and having appropriate and sensible hedges – that's just good portfolio management.


  55. As Warren Buffet once said, "the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good."

    Another noted value investor, Walter Weitz, penned this note to clients:

    “The current slowdown in the U.S. economy may turn into a recession and cause interest rates to move even lower. Or the economy could regain momentum, continue to grow for several more years and set off inflationary forces that lead to higher rates,” he wrote. “We believe that both will happen, possibly multiple times, over the next 10-20 years. We cannot predict how these changes will unfold, but the nice thing about investing in good businesses is that we do not need to know. Companies with strong competitive positions, able management and liquid balance sheets will take advantage of whatever opportunities come along.”

    Sage advice, indeed and I have tried to keep these tenets in mind when making investment decisions. In the end however, it is all about fear and greed. My tolerance for risk has changed over time due primarily to having far less time to recover from major mistakes.

    Yes, the doomsayers get the headlines but slow and steady tends to win the race. 


  56. Phil

    What do you think of this type of hedge

     

     

    Long put spreads – and especially spreads done in ratio – are another set of low- or no-cost strategies that can capitalize on volatility spikes and lower S&P 500 prices. In a ratio spread, one put is shorted while two puts with lower exercise prices are purchased. All options share the same expiration date. In an extreme decline, the position behaves like a short SPX futures hedge.

    As always thank you for the help






  57. Case opened: Democrats begin public airing of Mueller report



  58. Aging Populations Require Policy Response: G-20 Finance Update


  59. Hindsight is always 100% accurate, but here in Dallas, Texas it should have been obvious that Trump would back off from tariffs on Mexico. Beto came close to beating Cruz in last years Senate race and Biden is already polling better than Trump in recent polls. Mexico tariffs would have a huge negative impact on Texas economy that would probably result in Republicans  losing the state in next years presidential election.


  60. WSM / Phil, Yodi – thank you for your suggestions!  


  61. ‘Homework gap’ shows millions of students lack home internet


  62. Trump claims huge Mexico win, critics say it’s a mirage


  63. Republicans whistle past the ‘legislative graveyard’



  64. Good morning!

    Seems like Trump fake-fixed the Mexico crisis by ratifying a deal they agreed to months ago.  This was all nothing but a ploy by Trump to distract us from all the other crap that's going on and make it look like he accomplished something – and it worked!

    Poor Hong Kong is trying to fend off China's encroachment with Millions protesting a proposed change in the law that would allow them to be extradited to China for "crimes" – including political protest.  This is straight out of the GOP playbook – find one case where it does make sense to extradite someone (a murderer) and use it to take away the rights of Millions of people.

    Timing/Winston – It remains to be seen whether we make a full recovery.  

    Slow and steady/Pstas – That's why I much prefer long-term plays on value stocks – I'm too old for this shit!  

    Image result for i'm too old for this animated gif

    Ratio spreads/QC – We do those sometimes, we have some in the portfolios, don't we?

    Tariffs/Den – Evidence suggests Trump never intended to put any tariffs on – it's just his way of taking credit for NAFTA – yet again – as if he did something ahead of it being ratified.  More likely he was just manipulating the markets again for his buddies.


  65. Hong Kong to push ahead with bill that sparked huge protest


  66. Boris Johnson promises tax cut for 3m higher earners