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Will We Hold It Wednesday – S&P 3,000 Edition

So far, so good.

Just a few days into earnings season but no major blow-ups yet and the S&P 500 is holding up over the 3,000 line but the volume finally increased yesterday and it was down volume, not up.  We have to hold 3,000 for the whole weak to make a meaningful breakout and this evening we get earnings from a lot of heavy-weights like EBAY, NFLX and IBM and MSFT reports tomorrow evening so we'll have some clues as to how Big Tech is doing.  

Bank earnings have been good so far and Dow components JPM, GS and even JNJ beat their estimates yesterday though the overall index still finished lower as sellers showed up and found not enough buyers to keep the prices level.  That's the great danger in a low-volume rally:  When it comes time to sell, there's no one to buy it from you and prices can drop very quickly.

We're in a very strange market at the moment where earnings are clearly coming down but the market just keeps going up.  There's a huge disconnect from reality and, as I've said before, Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) is keeping people in but this market can turn ugly very quickly and it's VERY important to have hedges in your portfolios and, keep in mind, CASH!!! is the best hedge there is.

We'll be reviewing our Short-Term Portfolio (STP) this morning (and in our Live Trading Webinar at 1pm, EST) and making sure those hedges are enough to protect our Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) and, if not, then either we need more hedges or less positions!  

Our Money Talk Portfolio has its own hedges and we last reviewed that over at Seeking Alpha on May 16th at $112,908 and, since we only adjust this portfolio live on BNN's Money Talk show and since I haven't been on since (will be on in August), the positions remain untouched but on track as we're now up to $135,583, so it's been a very good two months with a $22,675 gain, which is 45% of our $50,000 base!  SQQQ calls expired worthless and TZA had a reverse split but nothing else has changed but the rally has given us a huge chunk of gains with lots more to come if things keep going well.   

  • SQQQ ended up being a $7,000 loss and TZA is not faring much better but we had a plan for what the rest of our positions would make if the market didn't head lower and, so far, we're executing that plan, with plenty still to gain if we stay on track.  
  • TZA – If all goes well, we expect to lose $6,360 on this hedge.
  • ALK – On track to gain $1,438 on the short puts.  
  • BNS – Net $2,750 on the $10,000 spread that's on track to make $7,250 (263%) more so good for a new trade.
  • CAT – Net $7,734 on the $15,000 spread is already over target with $7,266 (94%) left to gain.  
  • GIS – Net $9,388 on the $11,250 spread is pretty much done with $1,862 (20%) left to gain.  I know some people would LOVE to gain 20% in 6 months on a blue chip spread that's deep in the money but – yawn….
  • GOLD – Net $8,500 on the $12,500 spread means $4,000 (47%) left to gainand we're just about at goal on the put side and well over target for the calls.  
  • IBM – Net $2,740 on the $7,500 spread that's deep in the money has $4,760 (173%) left to gain, that's respectable for a new trade.  
  • LB – Net $7,020 on the $40,000 spread is about where we came in with $32,980 left to gain and we're $16,000 in the money so let's hope for nice earnings on 8/21.  
  • MJ – Net $5,850 on the $40,000 spread still has $34,150 (583%) left to gain so of course this is good for a new trade.  
  • MU – Net $4,812 on the $15,000 spread has $10,188 (211%) left to gainand that's very respectful.  
  • UNG – Net $260 is less than we paid on the $7,000 spread and the funny thing is it's $5,000 in the money with $6,740 (2,592%) left to gain – I'd say that's very good for a new trade!  
  • WPM – Net $11,918 on this $18,750 spread is well on the way and 100% in the money with $6,832 (57%) left to gain, so not too bad if you can be satisfied with 57% in 18 months for a trade that's 10% in the money to start.

See, trading isn't that hard, is it?  I think we've only made one adjustment (LB) to this portfolio and, otherwise, these are all original trade ideas that were never otherwise touched.  If all goes well, the above trades will make another $117,466 by Jan 2021 less (so far) $6,360 we expect to lose on TZA.

These trade are selected BECAUSE we feel they are fairly bullet-proof as we only do Money Talk once per quarter and we're already miles ahead of expectations.  That's why our last 3 Trades of the Year (WPM, LB, IBM) are in it and, in November, we'll be adding our 2020 Trade of the Year (I have no idea what yet) as well.  

The lesson of this portfolio is you don't have to constantly touch your portfolio to make good money – just make a few good selections, budget your hedges and let nature take its course!  

 


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  1. Good morning, All!

    Join Phil at 1pm for the weekly webinar, here:

    https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/82061351049507851


  2. Good Morning!



  3. Yup, lower earnings are definitely great for new record highs:



  4. Only the best people nominated for the Fed board:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-17/in-donald-trump-vs-jay-powell-new-battle-lines-are-being-drawn

    Shelton, whose selection was revealed in a Trump tweet on July 2, is something altogether different and potentially troubling to anyone who believes in the established conventions of central banking. Best described as a libertarian intellectual and author, she’s been affiliated with various free-market think tanks, including the Hoover Institution and the Atlas Network. She was hired by Trump’s campaign after writing an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal that lauded him for targeting currency manipulation and unfair trade practices by China. The president later named her the U.S. envoy to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

    Shelton is a hardcore inflation hawk who in past years has advocated for a return to the gold standard. In the absence of a gold standard, targeting superlow inflation generally means calling for high interest rates—certainly higher than they are now. But since it first emerged that she was being considered for a Fed job, her views on rates have changed. In May she told Bloomberg News she wouldn’t do anything to threaten the president’s pro-growth agenda. Last month she went further, telling the Washington Post that as a Fed governor she would seek to lower interest rates “as expeditiously as possible.”


  5. Hong Kong protests expand to oppose China, with no end near






  6. The Racist History of Tipping


  7. House vote condemns Trump’s tweets, draws some GOP support


  8. Good morning!  

    Once again the RUT is leading us lower despite the Dollar still hugging 97.   Not much to do but see what holds up but a good day to review our hedges in the STP and OOP.  

    Earnings/StJ – Never seen anything like this – earnings don't seem to matter at all.

    Shelton/StJ – Typical Hoover flunkie, will believe whatever you pay her to believe. 


  9. Earnings / Phil – Hmmmm, 1999 rings a bell!


  10. Really cool animation of the evolution of the minimum wage adjusted for inflation in different countries:

    https://ritholtz.com/2019/07/australia-now-has-the-highest-minimum-wage-in-the-world/

    At the end of the 60's, it was close to $12 in the US and companies still made money then amazingly enough. It's really funny when you see politicians who talked about how they had jobs making minimum wage in the 60's and they were OK with that (see Paul Ryan). But it was over 60% higher than today adjusted for inflation.


  11. Phil/Others…/AAPL

    I need some advice adjusting some options spreads that expire on Friday…  Here is my AAPL position which has a short call expiring on Friday

    Long June 2020 AAPL 170 call @ 28.35 now 41.12 

    Long Jan 2020 AAPL 180 call @ 20.70 now 29.75

    Short July 2019 AAPL 190 call @ 4.20 now 14.42 — expiring Friday showing ($1000 loss)

    Short Aug 2019 AAPL 200 call @ 8.20 now 8.40 

     

    What's the best roll on the short call?

     

    TIA

    but that is paired with a short July 2019 call @ 4.20 which is at 14.42

    so I am showing about a $1000 loss on the short call 


  12. Exactly – my favorite story is that I worked as a lifeguard during the summers at Indianapolis city pools while I was in college . This was '64 -'69. The pay was a flat $300/month, so at the end of the summer I had $900 in hand, which was enough to pay a semester's tuition at my college, Butler University, a private school. You can't do that anymore. Imagine what lifeguard pay would be now if you could.


  13. Sorry-

    Disregard the last two sentences under the TIA — that was from my first edit


  14. Yodi/IRM/armchair play-

    Yodi – I have the following armchair play and would like some insight on how you are approaching the expiration

    Bought 100 IRM @ 31.68  – sold July 32.5 call @ 0.45 sold July 32.50 put @ 2.17

    I was just assigned the put so now I have 200 IRM @ 32.09

    I calculate I have a current return of a ($35 loss) on the entire position including collected premiums and dividends.

    Thanks for any help Yodi


  15. Options Opportunity Portfolio Review (OOP) – Part 1:  We're back over 200% with a vengeance at $336,374 (236%) as we've popped back $59,635 since our June 17th review thanks to huge recoveries in AAPL, C, GOLD, JO, SPWR… and even OIH is sucking less.  Still, while we knew we were too low last month, now we're too high so we'll look to cash out or cover where we can to lock in these gains better than the last time we hit 200%. 

    • FTR – Rather than doubling down, we can sell 60 of the 2021 $2 puts for $1.15 so net 0.85 if we end up assigned it's fine and that brings our basis down to $2.32 and we COULD sell the 2021 $2 calls for 0.60 to drop it to $1.72 but then we'd just be playing to get our money back and I'm still not ready to give up on FTR's upside.  
    • HMNY – Now this one is dead money.
    • HOV – As is often the case, the reverse split killed the stock price.  We're not throwing good money after bad here and we'll see how things play out.

    • TZA – Another reverse split leaves us with 20 of the $40 calls with TZA at $45.83 and TZA is a 3x ETF so a 20% drop would give us a 60% pop to $73.33 and we'd be $33.33 in the money for $66,660 vs the current value of $16,700 so call this $50,000 worth of protection.  What's interesting here is that TZA calls only go to $55 and the 2020 $55 calls are $4.15 and our $40 calls are $8.50 so it makes sense for us to DD on the long calls by adding 20 for $17,000 and selling 20 of the 2020 $55 calls for $4.15 ($8,300) since that pays for half and we can always sell 20 more to make this new purchase free and 2x $15 (the new spread) is $30 vs $33.33 we would only make at $73.33 if we left it alone.  Since 1/2 is now uncovered, we're greatly increased our hedge protection for just net $8,700.  
    • WBA – They had a nice pop on earnings from $52 to $56 but it's fading now and we're back under $55.  I still think it's way too low to sell calls – I'd like to see $60+

    • LB – Happy with net $11.10
    • PLAY – We just doubled down and net $35.85 would be a great place to own them.
    • THC – Net $15.60 would be just silly on these, let's double down.  

    • FNSR – On track.
    • SQQQ – Not too much damage as we're in the spread for net $4.10 and the Jan $35 calls are now $3.70.  If we roll them to the $30s at $5.25, we widen the spread by $25,000 and go in the money for net $7,750 – that seems better than buying more long calls.  Like at goal, that gives us a $100,000 spread and the new net would be $17,000 so fantastic upside potential.  
    • TLT – The Fed is not making this one easy for us.

    • AAPL – Net $49,350 on the $120,000 spread is right on track.  We'll have to roll the short 10 July $200 calls at $4.88 ($4,880), which are winners, to 7 short Sept $200 calls at $10.80 ($7,560) so we pick up a bit more premium and a bit more flexibility with the lower count.  I don't like keeping the $160s, as they are too deep so let's cash the 20 June 2021 $160/220 spreads at net $33 (don't take less as it's no emergency), which is $66,000 and let's buy 30 of the June 2021 $200 ($30)/$240 ($15) bull call spreads at $15 ($45,000) so we put $21,000 away and we still have a $120,000 spread which we can always roll down and widen if AAPL takes a dip.
    • ALK – On track.
    • AXL – Waiting for a move back up to sell calls.  

    • BBBY – Down 5% today.  Trading like they are BK but I don't see it.  Still, we'll just watch and wait for now.  
    • BHC – They've come down off the highs but we're still on track though I expected better.  Earnings are Aug 6th and I might change my mind then.  


  16. Great point, StJ.

    AAPL/Jeff – AAPL/Jeff – See above, I scrapped our spread and moved things so, of course, that's the position I suggest, about 1/3 covered by Sept calls into earnings and, if AAPL goes lower, we're going to sell puts and roll the long calls to lower strikes and sell more short calls.  Figure we sell puts for at least $10 and are able to roll down $20 in strike for $10 so we'd end up with June 2021 $180/240 bull call spreads with maybe 1/2 short $170 puts for $20 ($10 per long) and the short Sept calls would be going worthless and we'd sell 15 (1/2) of the Sept whatevers are $10-15.  It's such a good plan we almost would prefer if they miss!  

    The problem with always selling front-month calls is you have no time to recover when you get burned.  I'm selling Sept $200 calls for $10.50 so I'm good up to $210.50 but the Sept $185s are $22 so I only lose $11.50 on a $15 move up but I can sell the Jan $210s for $11.30 and the June $230s are $11.50 so I'm not at all worried because I'm selling twice as much premium as you and the premium is what protects me.

    College/Snow, StJ - Too true, it's sad we do nothing to address the cost of education.

    Oil failing $57.50!  


  17. Jeff IRM So your stock you hold is now 32.09.

    I did roll already my positions in in May to Oct. In your case I would look for a Dec 19 32.5/30 stangle for

    about 2.80.


  18. AAPL/Phil,

    I have the following Jan '21 calls which I am ahead on about 85% and would like to roll.

    13 160 long

      5  195 short

      8  210 short


  19. ztennis.

    You can roll all yours to the above suggestion of Phil to Jun 21 200/240

    " let's buy 30 of the June 2021 $200 ($30)/$240 ($15) bull call spreads at $15 ($45,000)"

    I still hold the Jan 20 and 21 170 call against 210 and I will wait till after earnings 7/30 it can go up or down only the insiders know.


  20. AAPL/Zten – Same as above.  I'm a little worried about earnings and a little worried about selling short calls so I like the spread above into earnings as it's easy to adjust depending on what happens.  

    And what Yodi said!


  21. Phil, any thoughts on OTC ticker KTNTF?  I acquired some near $1.40, and am considering adding more with the breakout today above $1.60.


  22. Options Opportunity Portfolio (OOP) Review – Part II:

    • C – Already at our target. 
    • CDE – Improving finally and we're very aggressive.  Hopefully it continues.

    • CHK – Waiting for a comeback.
    • CLF – They are coming back and we're back on track.
    • DXD – Just a $20,000 spread and currently net $2,062 but out of the money so we'll adjust and roll our 50 Jan $29 calls at $1.10 ($5,500) to 50 Jan $25 calls at $2.05 for net 0.95 ($4,750) so now it's a $40,000 spread that's at the money.

    • FCX – Betting we eventually get a trade deal with China. 
    • GNC – May as well buy back the 2021 $5 calls for 0.10 if we can.
    • GOLD – FINALLY it came back.  Big winner now and we should cash our 40 Jan $10 calls at $6.75  ($27,000) and buy 40 (60 longs really as we're closing the 20 short) of the 2021 $15 ($3.70)/$22 ($1.45) bull call spreads at $9,000+$7,400 so we're pocketing $10,600 there and now we can sell 15 Jan $16 calls for $1.95 ($3,120) so back to about 1/2 off the table (and we began at net $5,830 so all house money now) but we still have a $28,000 spread left over. 
    • HBI – Right at our goal.
    • INTC – Still has that new trade smell but our entry was almost perfect.  

    • JO – Right at the money and hopefully consolidating for a break higher. 

    • KHC – Fortunately, we got more aggressive at the dead bottom but now we'll need earnings (early Aug) to prove us out.  
    • LB – Recovered a bit and we're very conservative so this is fine with us but we'll see what happens on earnings (8/21).  

    • M – I'm very tempted to get gung-ho bullish on this one but let's see earnings (mid Aug).
    • MJ – Was getting crushed but big acquisition today cheered everyone up.  We're pretty aggressive already so nothing to change.  
    • MU – Finally turned around and back on track but a long way (25%) to go.

    • NAK – Collapsed back after running to 0.65.  Best not to stare at this one – it's a long battle.  
    • NLY – On track, we're in this for the dividends, not the gains.
    • OIH – Nice comeback but we need to do much better.  This week's dip in oil isn't helping.
    • SEE – Already at our target.  
    • SIG – Still down in the dumps but I like them down here. 

    • SPWR – Miles over our target but only net $13,840 out of $20,000 potential so another $6,160 (44.5%) left to gain if they just hold $7 is way better than interest in the bank so something you may want to consider with cash that is just laying around (selling more aggressive puts, of course).  Consider that if you have $200,000 in cash and you took $20,000 and put it in this trade, you'd get back $29,000 (if all goes well) in 18 months and that's 4.5% interest on your whole $200,000.

    • T – On track
    • UNG – Waiting on hurricane season but may as well roll the 10 Jan $20 calls at $2.15 ($2,150) to 20 2021 $19 calls at $4 ($8,000) and we'll sell 10 of the 2021 $25 calls for $2 ($2,000) so we're spending net $3,850 to double down, add a year and a buck in position.
    • WPM – Well over our target and finally breaking over $25 with a 5% gain today.  We'll cover a bit of they fail to hold $25 but, meanwhile, we can enjoy the ride.  


  23. Phil

    What are you thoughts on gold ?

    What gold stock  would you recommend now

    Sorry just  returning from 3 weeks off

    Thanks


  24. Armchair trades.
    Looking at all my positions, as well as the present stock market vibration, I would recommend to take it easy on rolling future puts, especially if the stock has increased considerably.
    Yes it is one of the harder things in trading to sell a stock, when you see every day it is going up further. Yes it might sometimes be time to take a breather, and just sit with cash on the fence.
    I must agree not all our stocks have gone up with the BS tide, just a warning, if you sitting on a tight string, better look that you have some cash on hand. As long as you do not have to sell a stock in a down draft it is only a paper loss, however the put can hurt you badly.
    I know Phil is painting the devil on the wall every day and I might be some of the worst adviser in respect to myself. Just some mid-day thought while we cruising along


  25. Yikes, 12:30 already!  At least I'm being productive.  

    Speaking of productive, have a phone conf with people from Maven and The Street this afternoon – they are still looking for me to work with them.  MVEN is 0.80 – could get interesting but tons of debt. 

    Maven (TheMaven, Inc.)(MVEN)(maven.io) today announced it has raised $23.1 million from several accredited investors in a private placement of 23,100 shares of its Series I Convertible Preferred Stock, initially convertible into 46.2 million shares of Maven’s common stock.

    Addressing this debt is intended to help the company focus on new projects, such as the recently announced agreements to acquire TheStreet, Inc. (TST)(http://www.t.st) and to license and operate the Sports Illustrated media business.

    So, effectively, at 0.80 ($27M market cap) there's 28M shares so you get 2/3 dilluted but the company gets TST ($33M valuation) and SI Media and now we have to figure out how to Make money with TSTs $25M in revenues (lost $5M last Q).  TST was at $50M but discontinued operations and took charges so it will be many, many years before we pay any taxes now.  On the whole, it's a mess but there's certainly potential there.  

    KTNTF/Idi – Never heard of them so no opinion.  Not even seeing a proper listing anywhere. 

    Gold/QC – I think this crackdown on FB will scare people back out of BitCoin and that will be good for gold as is the general turmoil in the World and eventual inflation so I'm long-term bullish though $1,425 is already pretty good.  As noted above, CDE still hasn't moved much but I like them and NAK is a very fun gamble.

    Puts/Yodi – That's why I generally just sell long-term puts and forget about it.  I'd rather get a nice premium one-time than constantly increase my risk selling short-term puts at ever higher strikes.  Very good point.

    Webinar time


  26. BBBY -New low.  Sold a few more Jan 10 puts for $1.70.


  27. Ebola back. Best established vaccine from Merk? Phil or Stjeanluc or anyone, Thoughts? Vaccines don't usually provide large profits for large companies…  Any targets in the medical supply field – ie companies that provide barrier supplies


  28. Also sold some Jan 5 puts on RLGY for $1.70.  Stock has essentially been in a six year downtrend 

    CEO bought a million dollars worth of stock at $8.38 in May.


  29. Phil

    Thanks for the gold info

     

    What about Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM)

     

    Thanks

     

     

     


  30. OOPS !  Was still thinking of BBBY.

    Sold the RLGY puts for $.83.


  31. Ebola/JMD – I haven't seen anyone make a profit of those scares (every few years now) so it's nothing I'd chase into.  JNJ has a vaccine they say is better than MRK's and Russia actually claims to have a functional vaccine but , sadly, they don't try to profit off other people's misery the way we do.  

    The VECTOR center has developed and certified the Ebola vaccine that is believed to be the safest among its analogues. It has been put on the official list of medicines permitted in Russia for specific immunization against the diseases caused by the Ebola virus. The peptide vaccine differs greatly from its Western analogues as highly safe, effective, lacking any side effects, easily storable and transportable.

    As to barrier supplies, JNJ again but I'm not too keen on them at the moment as they seem to have given a lot of people cancer.  

    BBBY/Albo:

    Metric

    Three Months Ended June 1, 2019

    Three Months Ended June 2, 2018

    YOY Increase (Decrease)

    Revenue

    $2.57 billion

    $2.75 billion

    (7%)

    Gross profit margin

    34.5%

    35%

    (0.5 pp)

    Operating expenses

    $893 million

    $884 million

    1%

    Goodwill impairment and other charges

    $401 million

    N/A

    N/A

    Earnings (loss) per share

    ($2.91)

    $0.32

    N/A

    Adjusted EPS

    $0.12

    $0.38

    (68%)

    Kind of hard to make a profit when you have a NON-CASH impairment of $3.13/share but what happens when they don't have it anymore?  I think the frenzy on them is Banksters trying to scare people out of the stock while they load up.

    WPM/QC – That's in all our portfolios, was our 2017 stock of the year.  


  32. jmd/Ebola – Ebola is not that easy to transmit. To catch it, you need bodily fluids from an infected individual/animal to enter your bloodstream. If you're a hunter, and animals with a high prevalence of Ebola are part of what you hunt (e.g., bats), then it's easy to get blood into your system while cleaning the dead animal. A similar disease in the US is tularemia, rabbit fever, also a very nasty disease (for which there is no vaccine).

    There's also the funeral prep customs, but those play a lesser role, and there's good old hospital transmission.

    A large part of prevention is stabilizing local governments, stopping all the running gunfights, and doing something about poverty so that people aren't forced to subsist by shooting bats. That'll be a lot more effective than a vaccine.


  33. $56.50 on /CL!  $1.875 on /RB, $63.50 on /BZ and $2.31 on /NG.  

    Indexes heading lower and lower…


  34. Phil -With gold and silver breaking out to the upside, is market topping out ?


  35. Topping/Albo – I've been thinking we're topping since 2,850 in Jan 2018 so I'll have to say I have no idea whether this is finally it or not.  Really though, we're only up 150 points since then so we could have just cashed out then and had a nice vacation.


  36. Topping / Phil, Albo – These big numbers do look great but Phil is right, the Dow is only up 5% since January 2018 and the S&P less than 10% – not bad, but not super years. The NYSE and Russell are actually down. That 18 months lost there. Looking at a YTD chart, it looks like we are on a rocket ship, but that rocket ship started from below the surface.


  37. And that rocket ship was propelled by a narrow list of stocks.


  38. initial reaction to NFLX not good


  39. Missed my short on them. Had an inking with so much competition now. down almost 40 points.


  40. As I said in the Webinar, it's not really possible for them to sustain that ridiculous valuation.  They are no different than TWX or CBS and those companies trade at 15-20x earnings.  The same people who were convinced to subscribe to HBO over the past 40 years are the people subscribing to NFLX now and I very much doubt there's any magical thing they can do to entice more people that HBO hasn't already thought of and tried. 

    In fact, it's disappointing subscriber growth (2.7M vs 5M expected) that's tanking them now as the profits were a 10% beat but who cares if a $320 stock makes 0.54 or 0.60 per share in a Q – that's still not even 1/100th (annualized) of what they are expecting you to pay for the stock. 

    Netflix exited the quarter with 151.56 million global streamers. However, the pace of new additions has slowed considerably, and braked even more sharply than the company had warned of prior to results. In April, the company guided toward a decline in quarterly subscribers and said it expected to add 5 million new paying viewers, which would have represented an about 8% over the comparable quarter last year.

    Some analysts speculated ahead of earnings that Netflix’s hiked subscription prices at the beginning of the year might pose a drag on new additions. Others, however, maintained that any soft new subscriber numbers or churn would be short-lived.

    The second-quarter results, which capture the company’s performance through the end of June, come as Netflix faces an increasingly crowded field of competitors in the streaming space. Disney (DIS) plans to launch its own streaming service in November, while Apple (AAPL) and Comcast’s (CMCSA) NBCUniversal have announced competing video platforms of their own.

    The increase in competition has also threatened to dilute content available on Netflix, as companies pull some of the streamer’s most popular shows to place on their own platforms. AT&T announced earlier this month it would pull “Friends” from Netflix to place it on its own service, HBO Max, set to launch in spring 2020. And Comcast is set to pull “The Office” from Netflix in 2021, also moving the hit series to its own streaming platform.

    On the other hand – Our Stock of the Year, IBM is up 3%!  cool