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Which Way Wednesday – It’s Mueller Time!

Image result for doonesbury guilty guilty guiltyPolitics!

Do they really matter?  Like Willaim Barr, John Mitchell was Richard Nixon's Attorney General and, like Barr, Mitchell did whatever it took to keep his boss out of jail – making the cover-up worse than the crime and leading to the eventual impeachment of President Nixon, who resigned to avoid the disgrace of having what he did revealed to the American people.

Not only did that process take a long time but Nixon was re-elected during it.  The Watergate Break-In happened on Sept 3rd, 1971 and Nixon was re-elected in a landslide a year later and then there were years of cover-up and posturing before 7 of Nixon's co-conspirators, including his loyal Attoney General Mitchell, were indicted on March 4th, 1974 and it was still not until August when Nixon finally resigned, a full month after the House voted to impeach him.  

That's about 3 years, the same 3 years Trump has had only the GOP has controlled the House and Senate until just this January so there hasn't been a proper investigation and the results of the Mueller Investigation have been buried (and redacted) so today is a very important day for the President and the AG.  One thing the President learned from Nixon is not to tape anything – Trump doesn't even let WH staff take mandated official records when he reports to Putin – that's smart.

So how are we going to nail this guy?  We probably won't but, unlike Nixon, the Democrats hope to at least make the case to the American people that Trump should not be given another 4 years and, if that works, they can set about undoing the damage Trump has already done in less than 3 years (so far).  This is likely to be an important and frustrating day in American History as nothing will really be accomplished today – but at least it will help draw the battle lines for 2020.

Market-wise, we're sitting right on that 3,000 line on the S&P this morning as the Futures have dropped overnight, giving up about half of yesterday's gains.  Mueller is testifying at 8:30 and it will go on past noon and any given sound bite can send the markets up or down but down is more likely than up so playing S&P Futures (/ES) bearish below the 3,000 line with tight stops above is the percentage play for the day. 

Watch 7,050 on the Nasdaq (/NQ) to confirm weakness along with 1,550 on the Russell (/RTY) and 27,200 on the Dow (/YM).  

We rallied yesterday on "news" that the US and China would resume Trade Talks next week but that's just an excuse as we were promised this at the G20 Meeting on June 27th,  when the S&P was at 2,925 and we popped up to 3,000 over the next few sessions so here we are, being promised the same thing they always promise yet you really can fool some of the people all of time – so the rally continues – for now.


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  1. Happy Wednesday, All!

    Join us at 1pm for the weekly webinar, here:

  2. Not worried about Mueller, Article 2 says that the president can do whatever he wants! 

  3. Funny but probably true:

  4. There might be value in value:

    The last time value shares were doing this badly compared with growth companies was in the dying throes of the dot-com bubble.

    Of course, the flip side of that statement is that in that time, the gap was closed when growth cratered!

  5. For the MJ funds:

    For funds offering exposure to cannabis stocks—a market that's still technically illegal at the federal level—issuers must fight even harder to get their products launched. Launch delays have become common for marijuana ETFs, caused by everything from intensifying SEC scrutiny to persistent reluctance among the capital markets community.

  6. More data about inequality:

    Let’s dig a bit deeper: The top decile of America holds almost about 70% of the national wealth — 31% is held by the top 1%, while the rest of the top 10% holds about 39%.

    And the bottom half’s share? About 1.3%.

    Although the wealthy own most of the assets, the less well-off hold a disproportionate share of the liabilities.  The top 10% have a relatively modest amount of debt ($633 billion for the top 1%, and the rest of the top 10% has $2.8 trillion). Meanwhile, the bottom 50% has $5.6 trillion in liabilities; the group between the top decile and the bottom half has more than $6 trillion in liabilities. In other words, the bottom 90% has total liabilities of almost $12 trillion.

    The conclusion here is that the wealthy own most of the assets, while the less wealthy are stuck with most of the liabilities. Construct the cleverest campaign slogan out of this and you just might become the Democratic nominee for president.

  7. Good Morning?

  8. Good morning!

    RUT looks weak but other indexes not confirming it.

    IPOs very true, StJ. Notice "Providing Fair Value to New Shareholders" isn't even a consideration.  

    That inequality note really sucks for the bottom 50%.



    Sentiment is slipping:

    Boeing (BA) reported 2nd Quarter June 2019 earnings of $2.92 per share on revenue of $15.8 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $1.85 per share on revenue of $20.3 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $1.91 per share. Revenue fell 35.1% compared to the same quarter a year ago.

    Boeing Co, together with its subsidiaries designs, develops, manufactures, sells and supports commercial jetliners, military aircraft, satellites, missile defense, human space flight and launch systems and services.

    Caterpillar (CAT) reported 2nd Quarter June 2019 earnings of $2.83 per share on revenue of $14.4 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $3.12 per share on revenue of $14.5 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $3.17 per share. Revenue grew 3.0% on a year-over-year basis.

    The company said it expects 2019 earnings to be at the lower-end of its previous guidance range of $12.06 to $13.06 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $12.21 per share for the year ending December 31, 2019.

    Caterpillar Inc is a manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines and diesel-electric locomotives. The Company is also a U.S. exporter.

    AT&T (T) reported 2nd Quarter June 2019 earnings of $0.89 per share on revenue of $45.0 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.89 per share on revenue of $45.0 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $0.90 per share. Revenue grew 15.3% on a year-over-year basis.

    The company said it continues to expect low single-digit earnings growth in 2019, or earnings of approximately $3.60 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $3.58 per share for the year ending December 31, 2019

    AT&T Inc, through its subsidiaries and affiliates, provides wireless and wireline telecommunications services in the United States and internationally. The Company has three reportable segments: Wireless, Wireline, and Other.

    Freeport-Mcmoran (FCX) reported a 2nd Quarter June 2019 loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $3.5 billion. The consensus estimate was a loss of $0.05 per share on revenue of $3.6 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was for a loss of $0.07 per share. Revenue fell 31.4% compared to the same quarter a year ago.

    Freeport-McMoRan Inc, formerly Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, deals in the mining of copper, gold and molybdenum.

    Markets rallying a bit in relief as it looks like the Dems aren't getting anything new out of Mueller – he's dead-set on sticking to the report so nothing that we don't already know is coming out today.

  9. The Mueller testimony is hard to watch and the right has a handful of good sound bites…. :(

  10. Still looking for a Hero…..

  11. IRBT getting killed right now. Down almost 22%.

  12. The fact that Grandpa Mueller forgot his hearing aids and does not have his own report down cold, is not a good look….

  13. Trump threatens Guatemala after its court blocks asylum deal

  14. Such a shame what our country has become.  There's no attempt in this testimony to find out the actual truth:  A Democrat has 5 mins to spin things and then a Republican has 5 mins to spin things – more like a tennis match than a real testimony.

    IRBT/Greg – That's why we got out ages ago – I can't believe they held up this long. 

    Oil with a big draw:

    Crude inventory falls sharply

    • EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude -10.8M barrels vs. -4.0M consensus, -3.1M last week.
    • Gasoline -0.2M barrels vs. -0.7M consensus, +3.6M last week.
    • Distillates +0.6M barrels vs. +0.5M consensus, +5.7M last week.
    • Futures +0.79% to $57.22.

    I think it's a good time to long /NG at $2.24 ($2.42 on /NGN20) as heat wave should pump up use for electric generation:

    As expected, Dollar rejected at 97.50 is providing cover to sellers.  

    /KCN20 getting interesting again at $113.5

  15. Slow going for Kraft Heinz asset sales

    • Kraft Heinz (KHC -0.8%) has placed the sale of Breakstone's and its Plasmon baby food business on hold, sources tell CNBC.
    • Kraft is said to have received "tepid" interest for the properties.
    • The packaged food company is also seeing limited interest from private equity buyers for the Maxwell House coffee business.
    • New Kraft CEO Miguel Patricio is reviewing all the asset sales.
    • Shares of Kraft are down 47% over the last 52 weeks.

    New Home Sales

    Stocks slip amid weakness in Boeing, Caterpillar, FAANG stocks

    • Stocks open with modest losses following disappointing quarterly results from Boeing and Caterpillar and rising regulatory concerns around Big Tech; Dow -0.5%, S&P and Nasdaq both -0.1%.
    • Shares of Caterpillar (-4.3%) are slammed after the Dow component reported weaker than expected earnings and revenue and cut its full-year earnings guidance, and fellow Dow components Visa (-0.5%) and Boeing (-0.5%) also are lower after their results.
    • Alphabet (-0.9%), Amazon (-0.7%) and Facebook (-1.3%) are under pressure after the Justice Department said it would conduct a broad antitrust review of market-leading online platforms; on a related note, the FTC confirmed Facebook will pay $5B for its privacy mishaps.
    • European markets are mixed, with Germany's DAX +0.3% but France's CAC -0.2% and U.K.'s FTSE -0.7%; in Asia, Japan's Nikkei +0.4% and China's Shanghai Composite +0.8%.
    • In the U.S., health care (-0.9%) is an early laggard among the S&P sectors while energy (+0.4%) outperforms.
    • U.S. Treasury prices are slightly higher, pushing both the two-year and 10-year yields 2 bps lower to 1.81% and 2.05%, respectively; U.S. Dollar Index -0.1% to 97.63.
    • U.S. WTI crude oil +0.5% to $57.07/bbl.

    PMI composite flash shy away from estimates

    • July U.S. PMI Composite Flash51.6 vs. 51.7 consensus 50.6 prior.
    • Manufacturing PMI 50.0 vs. 51.0 consensus, 50.1 prior.
    • Services PMI 52.2 vs. 51.7 consensus, 50.7 prior.

    Chipotle talks avocado inflation

    • Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) execs broke down during the post-earnings conference call the impact of higher avocado prices in Q2.
    • "We anticipated some of the avocado price increase due to a spike in late March based on higher demand from retailers, prices spiked again in June going to further reduce supply coming from Mexico. This resulted in a roughly 50 basis point greater headwind from avocados during the quarter than we expected," notes Chipotle CFO Jack Hartung.
    • Avocado prices are expected to remain elevated in July before moderating later in the quarter.
    • The higher avocado prices could also be a factor for Yum Brands (NYSE:YUM), Del Taco Restaurants (NASDAQ:TACO) and Fiesta Restaurant Group (NASDAQ:FRGI).
    • Chipotle earnings call transcript
    • Chipotle's 10% AH gain has pared down to a 3.25% increase in the premarket session.

    FTC approves $5B Facebook settlement; FB -1.4%

    • The FTC formally approves a $5B settlement with Facebook (NASDAQ:FB-1.4% over privacy violations, the largest FTC fine against a tech company in history.
    • The 20-year settlement includes provisions aiming to create some operational distance between FB and founder Mark Zuckerberg's decisions.
    • The FTC probe began in March 2018 after the Cambridge Analytica breach of 87M Facebook users, which the FTC worried violated a previous agreement requiring FB to provide clear notifications that user data was being shared with third parties.
    • In other FB news, the company will pay $100M to settle SEC allegations of misleading disclosures about the risks of shared user data.

    Beyond Meat, Dunkin' Brands gain off partnership news

    • Dunkin' Brands (NASDAQ:DNKN) and Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND) are in a partnership to add a new plant-based menu options at Dunkin' guests in Manhattan.
    • The Beyond Sausage Breakfast Sandwich is available now at participating Dunkin' restaurants in Manhattan with plans for a future national rollout.
    • DNKN +1.53% premarket to $81.10. BYND +3.56% to $202.36.
    • Source: Press Release

    Amazon 'destroyed' U.S. retail – Mnuchin

    • U.S. Treasury Sec. Steven Mnuchin tells CNBC the Trump administration examined Peter Thiel's claims that Google (GOOG,GOOGL-0.8% is working with China in a treasonous fashion.
    • Mnuchin says the administration is "not aware of Google working with the Chinese govt in any way that raises concerns."
    • Mnuchin has stronger feelings on Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN-1%, supporting the broad tech Justice Department investigation: "I think if you look at Amazon, although there are certain benefits to it, it destroyed the retail industry across the United States so there’s no question they’ve limited competition."

    Freeport-McMoRan posts Q2 loss, cuts full-year cash flow guidance

    • Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX-1.1% pre-market after swinging to a Q2 net loss of $0.05/share vs. a $0.59/share profit in the year-earlier period but nevertheless tops Wall Street consensus by a penny.
    • Q2 revenue fell 31% Y/Y to $3.55B from $5.17B a year ago but matched consensus.
    • Q2 consolidated copper sales fell 18% Y/Y to 807M lbs. while gold sales sank 72% to 189K oz., but copper sales came in above the company's April guidance of 800M lbs. and gold finished well below guidance of 265K oz.
    • For the full year, FCX expects consolidated sales of 3.3B lbs. of copper and 800K oz. of gold, including 830M lbs. of copper and 230K oz. of gold anticipated in Q3.
    • FCX forecasts operating cash flows of $1.9B for FY 2019, below prior guidance of $2.3B, Based on current sales volume and cost estimates, and assuming average prices of $2.75/lb. for copper and $1,400/oz. for gold.
    • FCX expects full-year capex of ~$2.6B, including $1.6B for major mining projects such as underground development activities in the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia and development of the Lone Star copper leach project in Arizona.
    • FCX says execution of the underground ramp-up at Grasberg is "advancing according to plan and recent milestones are encouraging as we target increasing volumes and cash flows from the Grasberg minerals district."

    Caterpillar -3.7% on Q2 miss, sees lower end of guidance

    • Adjusted Q2 profit per share of $2.83, compared with $2.82 in the same quarter a year ago.
    • Sales by segment: Construction Industries +5%; Resource Industries +11%; Energy & Transportation -4%; Machinery, Energy & Transportation +3%.
    • The full-year profit per share outlook range was maintained at $12.06 to $13.06 (or $11.75-$12.75 excluding the first-quarter $0.31 per share discrete tax benefit), but the company expects to be at the lower end of the outlook range.
    • CAT -3.7% premarket. Peers are also falling on the news, including Deere (DE -1.4%), AGCO (AGCO -0.8%) and Oshkosh (OSK -0.4%)
    • Q2 results

    Boeing dips on massive loss, guidance uncertain

    • Core operating loss of ($5.82) per share vs. earnings of $3.33 per share in the same quarter a year ago. The results reflected a previously announced 737 MAX charge (which reduced revenue by $5.6B and earnings by $8.74 per share) as well as lower 737 deliveries partially offset by higher defense and services volume.
    • Revenue by segment: Commercial Airplanes -54%; Defense, Space & Security +8%; Global Services +11%.
    • Commercial Airplanes delivered 90 airplanes, including 42 787s, two 777 freighters for DHL and six 767 freighters for FedEx. Backlog of more than 5,500 commercial airplanes valued at $390B.
    • Operating cash flow of ($0.6B); paid $1.2B in dividends; Cash and marketable securities of $9.6B provide strong liquidity.
    • Due to the uncertainty of the timing and conditions surrounding return to service of the 737 MAX fleet, new guidance will be issued at a future date.
    • BA -0.8% premarket
    • Q2 results

  16. Going by the book = No testicular fortitude   :(

  17. Seems like the Dems are setting Trump up for the Obstruction of Justice charges – they keep circling back to that point. 

  18. It doesn't really matter what Mueller says – Trump and Barr will say the opposite later today and 30M people will bellieve them over an the words of an honest person.

  19. M coming on strong is pushing Hemp Boca Portfolio over 5% already – despite MJ doing terribly.

  20. Thank You Mr. Mueller. Have a nice day, enjoy retirement.

  21. Times has a good summary:

    Here’s what's happened so far:

    This is the crux of the Dem attack:

    Under questioning from Representative Ted Lieu, Democrat of California and an early proponent of impeachment, Mr. Mueller said that the reason he did not indict Mr. Trump for obstruction of justice is because of a Justice Department opinion stating that a sitting president cannot be indicted. But it was unclear what he meant, or if he understood the question.

    “I believe a reasonable person looking at these facts could conclude that all three elements of the crime of obstruction of justice have been met,” Mr. Lieu said, referring to the Mueller report’s lengthy description of actions the president took to try to interfere with his investigation.

    “I’d like to ask you the reason, again, that you did not indict Donald Trump is because of the O.L.C. opinion stating that you cannot indict a sitting president, correct?” he asked, referring to the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel.

    “That is correct,” Mr. Mueller said.

    Mr. Lieu was referring to a pair of opinions from the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel, drafted during the Nixon era and reaffirmed under Bill Clinton, that a sitting president could not be indicted.

    Representative Debbie Lesko, Republican of Arizona, sought to clarify what Mr. Mueller meant, noting that the statement is at odds with what he had said in the past, including in his report and a brief news conference in May. In those instances, he said he had not reached a conclusion one way or the other about whether the president did or did not obstruct justice. But, asked directly by Ms. Lesko whether he stood by his previous comments, the former special counsel waffled.

    “I would have to look at it more closely before I said I agree,” he said.

    “The finding indicates that the president was not exculpated for the acts that he allegedly committed,” Mr. Mueller told Representative Jerrold Nadler, Democrat of New York and the Judiciary Committee chairman, under questioning about his conclusions on whether Mr. Trump obstructed justice.

    But in a carefully steered line of questioning, Mr. Nadler got Mr. Mueller to agree with him that the president’s frequent declarations that the investigation had found “no obstruction” and had “completely and totally exonerated” Mr. Trump were false.

    “Right, that is not what the report said,” Mr. Mueller said.

    So the Dems have enough to hold impeachment hearings based on obstruction but is it worth it with just 16 months left in Trump's term?  They should concentrate on the elections I think.

    CMG back at $785 – amazing.

    RUT up 0.666% at 1,568.5 – that's bullish as they were lagging but the Dow has to stop being red (down 100). 

    WSJ headline not very Trump-friendly:

    Responding to questions from the House Judiciary Committee, the former special counsel said that his 448-page report didn’t exonerate President Trump of a crime and that he was bound by Justice Department policies that say a sitting president cannot be indicted. Follow along for live updates.

    This is interesting:  To Travel the World at 90% Off, Join an Airline

    Investors Wonder if the ECB Can Do Enough to Make a Difference

    The ECB has convinced financial markets that it will act. The question is, among its grab bag of possible moves, will it do more than investors expect?

    Congressional leaders from both parties are urging lawmakers to support a two-year spending deal that also lifts the government’s borrowing limit, seeking to ensure the compromise negotiated for weeks passes with broad bipartisan majorities.5

  22. On July 17, 2019, "The House on Wednesday easily defeated an effort from a Texas Democrat to impeach President Donald Trump in a vote that highlighted the Democratic fissures when it comes to impeachment."

    It was already decided

  23. Webinar time though I'd rather be watching Part 2 of the hearings…

  24. Phil – /ngn20 

    Aren’t those July 2020? Seems pretty far out.

  25. Hearings/Phil – don't worry, my wife is taking it all in. Those political genes are strong!

  26. FCX strong.  Trading above the 100 dMA  & the 200 dMA.

  27. Phil  Any recommended trade on ARR?  Also I'd like to get your opinion on NOW and CRM.  Thanks

  28. /NGN20/Jeff – Those are the ones I like for now or /NGZ19 if you want to play it closer ($2.50).

    Oil took a big hit:

    #TodayInEnergy#SaudiArabia has been exporting more crude #oil to #China, less to the United States #OilTrade #EnergyTrade


    Global oil market in glut, but not a big enough one for OPEC…

    FCX/Albo – Glad we bought back those short calls:

    • FCX –  These guys are all over the place so good for a new trade if you like the excitement.  Since we're up 50% on the 50 short 2021 $17 calls at 0.75 ($3,500), we may as well buy them back and wait and see if there's a bounce.  If there is, we'll sell them for $1.50 again and, if there's not, we'll sell the $15s for $1+ (now $1.15) and we'll still have a $25,000 spread we paid about net $0 for.

    And how's this for predicting:

    Submitted on 2019/07/01 at 10:12 am

    FCX/Batman – They lowered outlook for Q2 as they expected $2.94 avg selling prices and got $2.77 so revenues are down $75M and now they will lose 0.05 vs +0.09 expected but I think that's already baked in so it's really a question of whether or not it gets back to $3 moving forward.  

    ARR/Rookie – I sure like them down here:

    • Buy 1,000 ARR for $18.63 ($18,630) 
    • Sell 10 ARR Jan $17.50 calls for $1.25 ($1,250)
    • Sell 10 ARR Jan $17.50 puts for 0.55 ($550)

    That's net $16,830 and they pay $2.04 in dividends ($2,040) at 0.17/month so not apt to being called away and, if you are, you don't miss much.  That's 12% back per year in addition to possibly another $670 (4%) if you are called away in 6 months so figure another 8% a year on short put/call sales means you are 5 years away from recovering 100% of your outlay and then it's all profits from there on out.

    NOW/Rookie – $300 is $55Bn for a company that HOPES to make $850M in 2020 ($600M this year) but has, so far, lost $1.5M in Q1 so clearly it's not the kind of thing I'd be interested in.  CRM is also a nice business but also ridiculously priced as $160 is $124Bn but at least they made $1.2Bn last year so 100x and, so far this year, $750M looks like a slight improvement but nowhere near enough for me to want to pay 100x current earnings.

    This, by the way, is why I'm so bearish on the market – we're full of stocks like these that are trading at 50x and 100x earnings and people are buying them just because the trend is intact but, in the end, if things go sour – you have a MASSIVELY overpriced stock that is not likely to recover.  I much prefer my blue chips and value stocks that make actual money to ride out a crash with – even if that crash never comes. 

  29. Blast from the past AMYZF ripping higher this week

  30. Hi Phil,

    Should we be adding to UNG down here? Or you think we NG may have further downside before it finds a bottom?

  31. UNG/Martin - 

    In the MTP, we have  10 UNG 2021 $15/22 bull call spreads with 10 short $20 puts at net $800ish so our break-even is about $18 – so not much to worry about yet and 18 months to go and we can't touch it anyway.  In the OOP, we HAD 10 2020 $20/25 spreads with 5 short 2020 $23 puts and our adjustment from last Wednesday was:

    • UNG – Waiting on hurricane season but may as well roll the 10 Jan $20 calls at $2.15 ($2,150) to 20 2021 $19 calls at $4 ($8,000) and we'll sell 10 of the 2021 $25 calls for $2 ($2,000) so we're spending net $3,850 to double down, add a year and a buck in position.

    Certainly it's a bit early to make another change from that.

  32. Hi Phil,  Any thoughts on  BDCs like PNNT and AINV?  Both have high yields but options that only go out to March.  Here is a recent article on PNNT from Seeking Alpha:   Thank you.

  33. Have to run John, will get back to you later.

    Huge up day on the RUT, Big Chart will look solid tomorrow.

  34. Phil//  WIth ARR trading at 18.71 and if stays, where it is next month, with the dividend of .17, won't there be a chance of getting called?


  35. Suggested headlines for Mueller testimony:

    Addled DNC patsy Mueller dishes up none pizza left beef, no steak, to starving Dems

    Repubs parrot Hannity during questioning; Mueller stymies with the 5th 

    In the voice of Ben Stein:

    Mueller? Mueller? Mueller?

  36. Another huge quarterly loss at Tesla, on record delivery volume.  If they can't make money when they deliver 95k cars, how will they be profitable in the 2nd half of 2019? Deliveries will be lower in Q3 and Q4, with lower margins (now that they have worked through their higher margin backlog in US, Europe, and Asia), and will show significant YOY revenue declines.  What growth fund invests in declining revenue "growth" companies?

  37. How to Take Down Trump

  38. Rookie, On ARR with Phil's play above there is always a chance to get called. Look at it this way 18.71 less 1.25 = 17.46. so you would gain 4 cents and you will make the broker very happy. But you still left with the money of the putter and a chance not getting called and get the .17 div.

  39. Rookie just to follow up on ARR I am holding about 1400 shares since 2015. My paper loss on the shares is just about 7,400.00 I gained on the option plays overall 1000.00, with many assignments. I never incorporate any div. these to me are cherries on top. However my div. income over the period would be about 12,000.00. So over the 4 year period I would have gained, with lots of work, 6,000.00. To me on the capital invested it would work out to 4.70% p.a. Not really some thing to write home about to be honest.

    You take it from there if it is worth to you.

  40. Paris sizzles, London boils as record heat threatens Europe

  41. Your Chances of Dying

  42. Yodi,  Thanks for a detailed explanation.