Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

Fabulous Friday – Finishing the Month with a Bang!

Image result for trump hamlet cartoonTo trade or not to trade?

Trump said yesterday that the US and China are scheduled to have a "conversation about trade" without giving any actual details after China said what the media are interpreting as signals they won't retaliate against the latest US increase but I interpreted as the usually vague niceties China tends to utter when they are about to crush you (see yesterday's report).  Trump is like a cartoon character – with his economy going off a cliff and an election looming but, standing at the edge of the cliff with China about to push him off he says – NOW I have them right where I want them!   

Sadly, this is not how it works in real life yet you can't tell that to investors who are being herded back into stocks by MSM pundits who are screaming BUYBUYBUY – as if this is the opportunity of a lifetime with stocks 2.5% below their all-time highs.  I for one am disappointed, traders are supposed to be smarter than the average American yet they fall for this BS?  Of course, the very, very low volumes on the S&P indicate not many people are really falling for it.  The pattern continues that we have low-volume rallies and high-volume sell-offs so there are actually more sellers than buyers – they are just reeling in the buyers like fish on a hook.

S&P ETF (SPY) volume:

Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume
Aug 29, 2019 291.72 293.16 290.61 292.58 292.58 57,899,400
Aug 28, 2019 286.14 289.07 285.25 288.89 288.89 59,696,700
Aug 27, 2019 289.54 289.95 286.03 286.87 286.87 66,668,900
Aug 26, 2019 287.27 288.00 285.58 288.00 288.00 72,423,800
Aug 23, 2019 290.92 292.76 283.47 284.85 284.85 149,161,500
Aug 22, 2019 293.23 293.93 290.40 292.36 292.36 51,666,400
Aug 21, 2019 292.48 292.86 291.72 292.45 292.45 49,524,700
Aug 20, 2019 291.77 292.36 289.95 290.09 290.09 51,596,400
Aug 19, 2019 292.19 293.08 291.44 292.33 292.33 53,571,800
Aug 16, 2019 286.48 289.33 284.71 288.85 288.85 83,018,300
Aug 15, 2019 284.88 285.64 282.39 284.65 284.65 99,556,600
Aug 14, 2019 288.07 288.74 283.76 283.90 283.90 135,622,100
Aug 13, 2019 287.74 294.15 287.36 292.55 292.55 94,299,800

Today we're going for 294.50, 2,945 on the S&P 500 (/ES) Futures, which is EXACTLY to the 50-day moving average where we thought we'd top out after this window-dressing session to end the month:  

Until we're over the 50 dma and holding it, this is nothing but a move within the channel and, without a concrete trade deal (which seems unlikely), we'll probably stay in the channel – which means we can expect another trip to the bottom, at 2,800 again.  That's only 5% off the top so nothing really to worry about but you would think it's the end of the world every time we get these little gyrations.  

2nd Quarter GDP came in yesterday at an anemic 2%, revised down from 2.1% and my pet peeve about GDP is that it considers rising inventories to be a positive while I consider it things not selling in the warehouse.  Also notice the MASSIVE 4.5% increase in Government Spending as well as the hyper-inflationary rise in the GDP price index.  All is well?  I don't think so!  

The gross domestic product price index measures changes in the prices of goods and services produced in the United States, including those exported to other countries. Prices of imports are excluded so it's a clean measure of US inflation priced in US Dollars and it more than doubled in the last 3 months and that's BEFORE taking into account the July 31st Fed Rate Cut.  

Consumer Spending was up nicely and added 3% to the GDP but, of course, Consumers also racked up record levels of debt to get there – so we'll see how long they can keep that up.  Government Spending added the other 1% on the positive side (of the major contributions) and the rest netted 2% negative so, very simply, without big increases in spending by the Government and the Consumers they are lying to – we would have been -2% instead of +2% for the quarter.  Business Spending fell 1.1%, which contributed to their 5.3% increase in profits (they are not reinvesting in their business, which is NOT a good sign) and Business Investing in Structures was down a whopping 9.4%.

ImageOur GDP is clearly in a downtrend yet Consumers are still buying (literally) into the narrative that America is getting greater so they are spending money they do not have and propping up an otherwise sagging economy.

The markets are taking none of this into account and neither did we take any of this into account in 2007 or the first half of 2008, when there were CLEAR signs that the economy was going off the rails but the MSM told people to ignore the worry-warts and BUYBUYBUY what the Banksters were selling – and they did.  And it didn't work out so well then.

Making money is not always about staying in the market – sometimes you need to hold onto the money you've made and I REALLY think this is one of those times.  We added a LOT more hedging to our portfolios yesterday and we'll add a LOT more today in preparation for what might be a very rough September and, if it's not, I'd rather lose a controlled amount of mony on my hedges than an uncontrolled amount of money on my longs.

Have a great weekend, 

- Phil

 


Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!



Comments (reverse order)


    You must be logged in to make a comment.
    You can sign up for a membership or log in

    Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

    Click here to see some testimonials from our members!


  1. GDP / Phil – That price index will be a factor in the Fed decision I am sure. There is not much good in that report considering that we are adding $1T to the deficit this year. So tax cuts don't pay for themselves and they don't even help growth for long. When they passed the tax cuts, they didn't say "the economy will grow faster… as long as Powell keep rates low".


  2. Still think that there more downside pressure but I don't care – sell premium in the dips and watch it melt in the rips!



  3. Good Morning!


  4. Good Morning

    Who was asking about ULTA the other day?  

    Phil/ULTA -   correct again


  5. Good morning!  

    Well, it looks like I'll be in Naples next week (and hopefully the storm doesn't turn and hit there) as they are now talking about this being the biggest storm to hit Florida in decades and my news friend from NYC just got flown down to Daytona yesterday to cover the storm and this morning they told him to go to – Delray Beach – which is now expected to be where the storm will hit!  F that – I'm outta here!  

    I have to leave as we may lose power for days so I'm planning on being on the other side of the state until Thursday and then we'll see.  It's just not worth the risk of staying.

    Unfortunately, I had to cancel BNN for Wednesday as we don't even know if Naples will have power to switch studios.  

    This is interesting:

    Last thing we need at the moment is a 0.5% GDP-killing hurricane. 

    Tax cuts/StJ – All it is a massive wealth transfer from poor to rich and now the Government will say they don't have the money to help Florida.  Hell, they only approved $3.7Bn for Puerto Rico (despite what Trump claims) and that was from a 2017 storm!  

    While Puerto Rico has been able to use some of the more than $3.7 billion the federal government disbursed through the Federal Emergency Management Agency to finance local government grants during the immediate aftermath of Maria in 2017, most of the money appropriated by Congress last year is still stuck in Washington.

     

    Rosselló urged senators to support the House version of the bill, saying "it provides essential support for the recovery and reconstruction needs, including nutritional assistance and infrastructure provisions of the U.S. citizens in Puerto Rico."

    But Senate Republicans declined, saying the House disaster aid package lacks funding for Midwestern states, such as Iowa and Nebraska, that were suffering from floods. The Senate measure was sought by lawmakers from southern states such as Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, which were hit by hurricanes Michael and Florence last year.

    Some legislators expect the Republicans to block such legislation, even with the changes proposed by Democrats, out of fear of backlash from Trump who has repeatedly asked Congress to stop providing relief and reconstruction money to Puerto Rico.

    Big Chart – I very much doubt we clear the 50 dmas but we'll have to find out next week.  

    Trade War/StJ – And notice how it ramps up (almost double) between the end of Q2 (June 30th) and the middle of Q4.  

    Ulta/Stock – Yeah, not good.  

    Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA) reports comparable sales increased 6.2% in Q2 to just miss the consensus estimate for a gain of 6.7%.

    Customer transactions were up 5.4% during the quarter and average ticket was 0.8% higher.

    Gross margin was reported at 36.4% of sales vs. 36.5% consensus and 36.0% a year ago. Improvement in merchandise margins were driven by marketing and merchandising strategies and leverage of fixed store costs, partially offset by investments in our salon services.

    Ulta Beauty updates its full-year guidance to adjust for the current headwinds in U.S. cosmetics. The company sees full-year EPS of $11.86 to $12.06 vs. a prior range of $12.83 to $13.03 and $12.97 consensus.

    Shares of ULTA are down 16.13% AH to $283.00.

    Previously: Ulta Beauty EPS misses by $0.08, misses on revenue (Aug. 29)

    And I don't post these to brag but to reflect on how my pre-earnings thinking lines up with actual results so that, in the future, what I say about the next company can be taken in context:

    ULTA/Advill – I've looked at them as my kids like those stores but they went up too fast after going on sale in Dec and never came back down ($240) so $330 is a little too rich for my blood.  

    Growth is good but $330 is $19.3Bn on $660M in earnings currently.

    Year End 02nd Feb 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 TTM 2020E 2021E CAGR / Avg
    Revenue $m 2,671 3,241 3,924 4,855 5,885 6,717 6,916 7,540 8,338 +20.3%
    Operating Profit $m 327.6 410.4 506.3 654.8 785.3 854.1 881.8     +21.1%
    Net Profit $m 202.8 257.1 320 409.8 555.2 658.6 686.4 754.5 843.5 +26.6%
    EPS Reported $ 3.15 3.98 4.98 6.52 9.58 10.9 11.5     +28.3%
    EPS Normalised $ 3.15 3.98 4.98 6.52 9.58 10.9 11.5 13.0 15.0 +28.3%
    EPS Growth % +17.4 +26.5 +25.1 +30.9 +46.9 +14.3 +12.3 +18.6 +15.4  
    PE Ratio x           29.4 28.0 24.8 21.5  
    PEG x           1.58 1.51 1.61 1.42
    Profitability

    Like any momo stocks, they are priced like they can just keep growing +10% forever and nothing will ever, ever go wrong along the way.  And why is is they can have 1,200 retail stores but no one flinches at the massive valuation in the retail space?  


  6. This is all great for HD and LOW, by the way.  They already had a pop into the storm.

    /RB taking a tumble already – that's why we took the money and ran yesterday:

    And check out the long-term trend in /RB – disaster!  

    Almost every time someone buys a car, it uses less gas than the car they were driving before – how else can this turn out in the long run?

    This is what Trump is trying so hard to reverse to pay back his oil industry buddies:

    Image result for obama cafe standards

    We're still relatively early stages and Trump tried to roll them back and the auto companies said no because the rest of the World is going that way so it makes no sense to make less-efficient cars just for America but the majors don't want smaller companies to undercut them with gas guzzlers so they want the US standards to stay in place.  


  7. Wow, oil collapsing with /RB now – Brent too – not sure why but the indexes will be next.  1,500 is a good shorting line on /RTY with tight stops above.


  8. Phil – RE/5 trades to make $25K

    We had a quick uptick on all 5 of the stocks since the trades were posted (yesterday).  Do you suggest putting in orders for the spreads and puts and hope they fill eventually?  And risk missing out.  Or chasing at a slightly worse price?

    Somehow this seems to be the choice I have to make continually and I still haven't figured out the best route to take.

    Thanks


  9. We'll see if $55 holds on /CL, $58.50 on /BZ, $1.51 on /RB.  

    • The core PCE price index, a number that we know the Fed watches closely rose 1.6% from a year ago in July, the same as in June and still below the Fed's 2.0% objective.
    • That may give the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee the rationale to cut interest rates again at its September meeting.
    • The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability of a 25-basis-point cut in September at 95.8%, up from 94.6% yesterday and 91.5% a week ago.
    • Among other nuggets in July's personal income and outlays report by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis, consumers increased spending by more than their disposable income rose:
    1. Real disposable income (measured in 2012 dollars) increased 0.1% vs. +0.3% in June.
    2. Consumer spending was strong — personal consumption expenditures in 2012 dollars rose 0.4% in July, up from 0.2% in June.
    3. Real PCE increase of $56.9B reflects $36.4B rise in spending for goods and a $23.8B increase in spending for services.
    4. Recreational goods and vehicles was the leading contributor to the rise in spending for goods; within services, the largest contributor to the increase was household electricity and gas.
    • August Consumer Sentiment89.8 vs. 92.3 consensus and 92.1 prior.
    • Current economic conditions 105.3 vs. 107.4 consensus and 107.4 prior.
    • Index of consumer expectations 79.9 vs. 82.3 consensus and 82.3 prior.
    • The consumer sentiment index posted its largest monthly decline since December 2012.

    • The president takes to Twitter to float the idea of indexing capital gains to inflation.
    • He retweets billionaire Steve Forbes suggestion, "To keep the economy growing, index capital gains," then tacks on his own query: "An idea liked by many?"
    • President Trump then re-posts a link to RealClear Markets story by Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, urging government to eliminate what they call the "inflation tax."
    • Earlier this month, Trump said he was looking at reducing capital gains and payroll taxes as well as the idea of indexing capital gains to inflation.
    • The next day he said he said they're not needed because the economy is so strong.
    • In the latest economic report, personal income rose less than expected in July, while core PCE price index was in-line with consensus and consumer spending came in a little stronger than estimates.
    • July Personal Income and Outlays: Income +0.1% M/M vs. +0.3% consensus +0.5% prior (revised).
    • Consumer spending +0.6% M/M +0.5% consensus, +0.3% prior (unrevised).
    • PCE Price Index +0.2%M/M in-line with consensus, +0.1% prior (unrevised).
    • Core PCE Price Index +0.2% M/M in-line with consensus, +0.2% prior (unrevised).

    Personal Income went up 0.1% and Personal Spending went up 0.6% – DO THE MATH!!!

    Image result for drowning in debt cartoon

    • "The Euro is dropping against the Dollar 'like crazy,' giving them a big export and manufacturing advantage…and the Fed does NOTHING!" the president Tweets.
    • Furthermore, President Trump, again contends that if the "Fed would cut, we would have one of the biggest Stock Market increases in a long time."
    • He also draws the conclusion that the Fed is the problem, not tariffs.
    • The euro is down 0.2% against the U.S. dollar at 0.906 per greenback. In the past three months, the euro has fallen by 1.2% against the dollar
    • President Trump is singling out General Motors (NYSE:GM) again on Twitter for having moved some production to China, despite the automaker receiving bailout money.
    • Earlier this week, The Detroit Free Press broke down the negative impact on GM if it were to be forced out of China by some sort of executive action.
    • Shares of GM are up 0.43% premarket to $37.07 and are 10.34% higher YTD
    • The Baltic Dry Index rose 4.44% to 2,378 points to make it seven days in a row of moving higher and record a five-year high.
    • Capesize rates were up 7.43% on strong miner interest and Handysize rates rose 1.35% on the day.
    • Argentina's decision to "unilaterally" extend maturities on its short-term debt constitutes a "default," according to Standard & Poor's, which slashed the country's long-term foreign and local currency issue ratings to CCC – "vulnerable to nonpayment."
    • The downgrade came after Argentine bond prices fell and country risk soared to levels not seen since 2005 on Thursday amid fears of a full-blown financial crisis.

    • Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is promoting its private-label brands above where customers would add a rival product to their shopping cart, according to a Washington Post investigation.
    • The tech giant's promotion of its own products has attracted scrutiny from antitrust regulators in the United States and abroad.
    • Amazon statement: "Like any retailer we promote our own brands in our stores, which provide high-quality products and great value to customers. We also extensively promote products from our selling partners."
    • AT&T (NYSE:T) says it reached tentative agreements with ~20K striking workers in nine southeastern states, ending a four-day strike the Communications Workers of America said was the largest private sector strike in the south in a decade.
    • The five-year agreements cover CWA employees in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee.
    • The striking workers, mainly technicians and customer service representatives in AT&T's traditional wired phone and Internet business, were seeking better health care benefits and stronger job security, among other requests, after their prior four-year contract expired earlier this month.
    • Hurricane Dorian is strengthening and is forecast to hit Florida as a Category 4 storm during the busy Labor Day weekend, becoming the first major hurricane to hit the area in 15 years.
    • American Airlines and Southwest are allowing travelers to change their Florida flights without fees ahead of the storm, potentially weighing on the carriers which have weathered a difficult summer.
    • Some of the nation's largest investor-owned hospitals are also gathering supplies in preparation, including Tenet Healthcare (NYSE:THC), HCA Healthcare (NYSE:HCA) and Universal Health Services (NYSE:UHS).
    • There's additional concern for insurers and orange juice farmers, while the oil industry watches if the storm will pass into the Gulf of Mexico.

    • Fighting a California bill that could force them to reclassify their drivers as employees, Uber (NYSE:UBER) and Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) and DoorDash (DOORD) have pledged $90M to a California ballot initiative for the 2020 election.
    • The measure would see California drivers receive more protections and benefits while maintaining their status as independent contractors.
    • They would include a minimum earnings of $21 per booked hour, injured worker protection, and paid sick leave and paid family leave for those who drive a minimum of 20 hours per week.
    • As the yuan trades at its weakest levels in more than a decade, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is again raising prices on vehicles in China.
    • The starting price for the Model X SUV is now listed at 809,900 yuan ($114,186) vs. 790,900 yuan previously, while its long-range dual-motor Model 3 variants are now 439,900 yuan, up from 429,900 yuan previously.
    • Hoping to minimize the impact of the trade war, Tesla is in the middle of building its first overseas factory in Shanghai, which is due to start production by the end of the year.

  10. 5 Trades/Jeffl – First of all, keep in mind those are aggressive plays IN LIEU of staying in current portfolio positions.  In other words, you can SENSIBLY cash in your current portfolio and, to avoid missing a potential rally, just play these 5 stocks and still get a nice return if we're wrong about the market turning down in the fall.  The bump in the stocks might have been caused by our readers buying (yes, the volume is that low that we move the market) so I'd be very careful about chasing and the lower VIX isn't helping.  

    If the market rallies next week and they get away from you – we can always find another 5 next week. 

     

     

    See how easy that is (those were in my runner-up pile – you guys have no idea how much work I put into making these selections!  


  11. Whomever wrote this sub-head deserves a raise:

    The Bear Case Against Amazon

    The tech giant’s shares now trade at 36 times all the money it has ever earned as a public company


  12. Trump / Phil – You really have to love what the guy actually values as an indicator:

    Furthermore, President Trump, again contends that if the "Fed would cut, we would have one of the biggest Stock Market increases in a long time."

    How many of his supporters are actually benefiting from a high stock market? How about – "If the fed would cut, better jobs would be created". But no, it has to relate to some ratings he can relate to. Obama had a great market run so Trump needs to have better numbers. With current valuation, this would only be inflating the bubble and we know how this ends. Of course, he will be gone by then and pretend that if he has still been there, nothing bad would have happened.


  13. " Move in oil looks like related to news from Russian energy minister that Russia overproduced in August — didn't exactly hit the target it was supposed to according to OPEC."


  14. Speaking of cashing out – back to our OOP Review(ish).  We left off with BBBY yesterday:

     

    • BHC – It's more of an income producer (like Butterfly plays) than a bet so I guess it can stay.  
    • CHK – As noted above, I'd pick them now so we'll stick with it and see how /NG performs next Q now that more exports have opened.  China's best way to balance trade is to buy our Nat Gas as they have to buy it from someone so may as well buy it from the whiners to shut Trump up.   Trump will call it a huge victory but it's no effort on China's part at all, just changing a mailing address to place their next order.  
    • CLF – Another lottery ticket on China deal.  We don't want too many of these. 
    • FCX – Oops, there's another one already.  On the bright side, we skipped D and E…
    • FTR – Make a wish stock at this point but not much point in cashing in as it can't get much worse.  
    • GNC – We just rolled those.  They made $16M last Q and you can buy the whole company for $160M at $2 – I'm almost inclined to do that!  
    • GOLD – LOL, now we're getting burned by our short calls but lots of time to roll and adjust. 

    • HBI – As noted above, I'd buy them now.  P/E down to 9 at $5Bn with $553M in earning last year and $234M in first two Qs this year is on track for about the same.  This isn't LB with Victoria Secret going out of style, this is Hanes and Leggs and Champion and Ralph Lauren, Maidenform, DKNY…  The stuff that is selling well in TARGET!!!  

    • INTC – On track but what a completely crap net they are showing at $2,975 on the $15,000 spread that's $4,000 in the money.  Good for a new trade but can easily get gooder if the market turns down.  The deciding factor here is INTC is a stock I don't mind doubling down on twice and holding for 10 years. 
    • JO – I don't know if we'll get a spike by September.  We were hoping for a better price to sell the Sept $30s and the March spread is what we rolled them to and net $2.85.
    • KHC – Another one I love at this price.  
    • LB – You know I love them – but they don't love us.  $20 calls are $2.60 at the moment and the $15 calls are $4.40 so $2.20 so we will do that roll and add 10 more and the $10s are $7.40 so no to $3 more for the next $5.  
    • M – Another one I just mentioned above as one I'd pick now.  The 25 2021 $18 calls at $1.45 can be rolled down to the $13 calls at $3.20 for net $1.75 so let's do that, buy 25 more (DD) and sell 25 (1/2) of the Jan $15 calls for $1.30 and buy back the short 2021 $30 calls for 0.25 as they are already up $2.15 ($5,375) so that's a realized gain against paper losses of $19,000 so our break-even on 50 of the $13s is $16.80, not including additional potential short call sales.  Not bad for a stock that's dropped 40% on us since April…

    • MJ – Wow, as much as I want to cash out, this portfolio is just full of compelling values!   If we're not going to bail (we're not) then it's simply irresponsible of us not to pay net $2.50 to roll the $25 calls ($4.10) to the $20 calls ($6.60) as we're picking up $5 of intrinsic value for $2.50 and increasing our upside delta from 0.54 to 0.71 so a 34% increase in our upside earning power (which makes it safer for us to sell calls later) over the next 16 months.  
    • MU – I don't think they need China to do well
    • NAK – We're going to be forced to by 5,000 more so not inclined to DD here.
    • NLY – Dividend still $1 (was $1.20) per net $6.02 we spent in March?  Yes?  Well then why the Hell should I care what the current price is?  We might get assigned 1,000 more shares at $10 and our average would be $8.01 and we get $2,000 in dividends instead of $1,000?  Oh noooooooooooo….

    Image result for mr bill oh no

    OIH – Finally stopped falling (or paused).   Another one we have to roll or why stay in so let's roll the 40 2021 $15 calls at 0.80 to the $12 calls at $1.75 for net 0.95 as I like that better than doubling down (though our next move may be to DD and sell 1/2 covers).  

    SEE – I'm not seeing the pop we expected from bubble wrap sales so let's kill this one about even.  Why mess around with it if we don't need to?

    SIG – Another one in my "too cheap to quit" pile.  It's at the money and even so no need to adjust.  

    T -   Only $8,000 on a $14,000 spread that's in the money but why risk it as we're up from an $1,850 entry.  Let's cash it out so we don't have to worry about it.  

    UNG – We quit on /NG a bit early and it popped into the storm.  This one is not likely to affect the gulf but it's only the first of the season and it's a whopper and I like our long-term premise on gas so we'll keep it.

     

    WBA – Could be the 2020 trade of the year if they stay this low.  Gotta roll the 20 2021 $50 calls at $6.50 (up today) to 20 2021 $45 calls at $9.20 for net $2.70 (close enough).  


  15. AMZN/Pstas – That's a very good insight.

    Trump/StJ – He's taken what was a fantastic economic run and simply ruined it on several fronts but, as you say, he'll take credit for Obama's rally and job creation and pretend none of the downside was his fault.  

    Russia/Albo – Thanks.  Yes, that's very bad if Russia is not following OPEC restrictions.  

    That was a quick $500 per contract on /RTY – seems to be done at 1,490 or at least bouncy so I wouldn't be greedy into the weekend.


  16. Phil/Hurricane

    We are on the west coast (Tampa area), good plan to move toward Naples, looks like you should be in better shape there. Check out Mike's Weather Page on Facebook, guy is a weather blogger and provides lots of good information about the tracks, rainfall expectations, winds, etc. with frequent updates. I've found it better than the news outlets in some ways. 

    If you'd like any contact info from me, just in case, let me know and we can do that. 

    The Ritz in Naples would be good, I'd stay a the the golf resort (they have two resorts in Naples) as its a few miles inshore just to be cautious. 


  17. Exclusive: Saudi Aramco board sees too many risks for New York IPO – sources








  18. Energy Bankruptcies Rise as Investors Lose Taste for Shale


  19. Naples/Jeff – Not going to Ritz because they wanted 2-day penalty if cancelled and rooms were double what Naples Beach Hotel is charging and I only have to pay 1 day if the storm changes track.  But, if so, I'll be there Mon-Thurs so happy to get together if you have time.  I agree inland would be a bit smarted but almost everything is booked solid and I had to find a place that would take my Mom's dog.

    So /NQ fell $600, /ES fell $1,000 and /YM fell $1,000 – turned out /RTY wasn't the best bet – but it had the best line to play and that's just as important (better to be right more often than bigger!). 

    And I don't mean top to bottom but where a reasonable entry would have been like 26,500 to 26,300 on /YM

    Very dangerous Godzilla pattern forming on the VIX:

    Image result for godzilla

    And boy, that last Godzilla movie was so disappointing.  Way too many monsters in it and no story at all – just a mess…  Took in $400M though but cost $170M so not considered a big success.  

    After King of the Monster's abysmal $47.8 million domestic opening weekend, a sharp drop-off seemed inevitable. Over the next four weeks of its very short run, the film dropped in weekly sales by 64.3%, then 42%, then 54.9%, then 50.3%. In that last full week in theaters, King of the Monsters only scraped together $2.9 million.

     

    The final days have been especially sad. The film's theater count was reduced to below 800, and this past weekend, all King of the Monsters could muster was $800,000.

    With that final total, we can now compare just how bad this run in theaters was and update the Godzilla franchise's box office rankings.


  20. Godzilla / Phil – You're freakin' hilarious!  I can't wait for you to run for President and now launch a TV channel too! 


  21. Wow, they have the live version of Godzilla from Bonds in 1981, which was an awesome concert!  Too bad there's no video as you could see me totally wasted at 18.  Blue Oyster Cult used to do clubs as "Soft White Underbelly", which was the band's original name – so only their real fans would show up.  There was a line around an entire city block for this show in an old clothing warehouse right in Times Square which had a theater-sized stage so they went all out on the show and, during the very extended drum solo, they dimmed out all the lights and then rolled a 20-foot Godzilla puppet onto the stage that you could make out if you strained against the floor lights and then, just as they had us all staring into the dark – they ignited way too much flash powder for such a small club and singed (and blinded) the first 5 rows (me included).  Best show ever!!!  Thank goodness kids are so resilient and thank goodness we didn't have lawsuits back then.  If you went to a concert and got your eyebrows burned off – well, you knew the risks…

    TV/Buckeye – The guys who produce the Hemp Boca show want me to do a weekly show.  They actually want 3 or 5 days but I said no way to that and I can't even imagine doing a weekly on top of everything else.  Still, you have to give Trump some credit because he wanted to make a conservative channel and he's stolen the conservative brand and now he's trashing his potential competition (Fox) - all setting things up perfectly for Trump TV when he blames Fox for his election loss and launches a channel "in protest" and, of course, to make American Great Again.  

    Speaking of hilarious, Dow is green again. 


  22. Speaking of TV, I like David Spade's new show after the Daily Show but talk about a guy putting ZERO effort in.  I looks like he just drifts in off the street and reads the cards…  


  23. Dr Copper says NO DEAL on China next week:


    • Among this week's crop of newly reaped data points, two reports released today illustrate the mixed messages the economy is sending — consumer spending in July came in better than the average estimate but the UMich consumer sentiment gauge turned unexpectedly dimmer in August.
    • Another point to note: July's personal income rose only 0.1% while consumer spending increased 0.6%, a trend that's not sustainable.
    • Overall, the picture looks roughly balanced between exceeding expectations and falling short, with perhaps a slight bias to the stronger-than-expected side.
    • Stronger-than-expected: As measured by the Conference Board, consumer confidence in August clocked in at 135.1, beating 130.0 expected, but weaker than 135.8 in July.
    1. Chicago PMI rose to 50.4 in August, exceeding the 47.5 estimate and July's reading of 44.4.
    2. August Richmond Fed manufacturing survey surprises with a positive reading — +1 vs. -4 consensus and -12 in July.
    3. August Dallas Fed manufacturing survey swung to +2.7 from -6.3 in July and came in better than the -3.0 consensus, production, capacity utilization, and new orders all improved from the previous month.
    4. Consumer spending in July increased by 0.6% M/M, just over the consensus for a 0.5% rise and compared with the 0.3% increase in June; however income trailed estimates (see below); inflation came in as expected.
    5. July durable goods report posted a healthy 2.1% increase, far stronger than the 1.2% expected and a quicker pace than the 1.8% rise in June (however, June’s number was revised down from 2.0%).
    6. International trade in goods deficit narrowed unexpectedly in July, to $72.34B vs. the $74B consensus and compares with the revised $74.16B deficit in June.
    1. Wholesale inventories rose 0.2% to $679.4B in July, matching consensus and vs. 0.2% prior.
    2. The second reading on Q2 GDP was revised to +2.0% from the prior estimate of +2.1%; matches +2.0% consensus.
    • Weaker-than-expected: August UMich consumer sentiment unexpectedly dimmed to 89.8 from 92.1 in July, the largest monthly decline in almost seven years; compares with 92.3 consensus. Apprehension over rising tariffs were spontaneously mentioned by a third of the respondents.
    1. Initial jobless claims increased more than expected, up 4K, to 215K vs the 213K expected; continuous claims also exceeded consensus, up 22K to 1.698M vs. 1.680M expected.
    2. July personal income increased +0.1% M/M vs. +0.3% consensus and +0.5% in June.
    3. July pending home sales fell 2.5% to 105.6, vs. -0.3% estimate and backtracking from the 2.8% gain in June.
    4. June FHFA housing price index increase of 0.2% compares with +0.3% consensus and +0.2% increased in May.
    5. June S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller home price index was flat vs. May, less than the +0.2% consensus; the Y/Y change +2.1% also failed to impress as +2.3% was expected.
    • Coming up next week: Nothing on Monday due to Labor Day holiday; on Tuesday, August ISM manufacturing PMI; on Wednesday, July trade balance; on Thursday, August ADP nonfarm employment, August ISM non-manufacturing PMI, July durable goods orders; and on Friday, nonfarm payrolls report.
    • Stocks erase their early gains, with consumer discretionary and energy declines weighing on the stock averages.
    • The reversal took hold after the August UMich consumer sentiment index posted its biggest decline since 2012, with about a third of respondents spontaneously mentioning tariffs as a worry.
    • The Nasdaq slides 0.6%, the S&P 500 slips 0.3%, and the Dow falls 0.2%. Earlier in the session, the Dow had risen as much as 1.4%, the Nasdaq as much as 0.6%, and the S&P 500 as much as 0.5%.
    • President Trump defended the tariffs, saying the problem is the Fed for keeping interest rates too high, which keeps the U.S. dollar strong.
    • Among S&P 500 industry sectors, consumer discretionary (-0.6%), energy (-0.3%), information technology (-0.3%), and communications services (-0.3%) are declining, while industrials (+0.5%) and materials (+0.5%) outperform the broader market.
    • Crude oil sinks 3.5% to $54.70 per barrel.
    • The CBOE Volatility Index rises 4.8% to 18.73.
    • Gold creeps up 0.1% to $1,538.00 per ounce.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield rises 1 basis point to 1.509%, while the 2-year yield falls 1 bp to 1.524%; so, still inverted.
    • Dollar Index spikes up 0.3%.

    • 256 commercial mortgage-backed securities totaling ~$6.9B have potential exposure to Hurricane Dorian, according to Morgan Stanley analysts.
    • Securities are backed by properties in an NOAA flood hazard zone with greater than 50% chance of being affected by Dorian's track (as of 8 AM on Aug. 29).
    • Most exposed property type is retail with 106 CMBS loans totaling $3.2B due to a few large loans including Aventura mall; represents 46% of total exposure.
    • 2018 vintage is most exposed with 54 loans totaling $3.1B.
    • Largest exposure by balance in $850M GMMS 2018-FBLU backed by the Fountainbleau Miami Beach
    • Nickel prices soar to their highest levels in more than four years after Indonesia, the world's top producer of the metal, said it would ban exports of raw ore in December, sooner than traders had expected.
    • Refined nickel futures jumped more than 9% to $17,935/mt on the LME following multiple media reports that the energy and mineral resources minister said Indonesia will bring forward a planned 2022 ban in an effort to attract more processing business rather than just exporting raw materials.
    • Analysts say the ban almost certainly will push the global market in refined nickel to a deficit.
    • Other factors also are contributing to nickel shortages, including concerns that a recent waste spill at a Papua New Guinea plant could cause the closure of the facility, which produces 32.5K mt/year of nickel.
    • Longer term, nickel consumption is expected to rise as governments around the world seek to clean up dirty city air, raising demand for electric vehicles.
    • Certain opioid painkiller makers are under pressure in apparent response to Allergan's agreement to pay $5M to settle all claims connected to the federal suit in Ohio related to the opioid epidemic, a situation that the company had relatively little to do with. Investors appear to perceive that this bodes ill for drug makers with more prominent roles in the crisis.
    • Selected tickers: Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA -1.4%), Mallinckrodt (MNK -16.1%), Endo International (ENDP -4.5%), Amneal Pharmaceuticals (AMRX -4.6%)
    • Drug wholesalers are all up: AmerisourceBergen (ABC +0.3%), McKesson (MCK +0.4%), Cardinal Health (CAH +2.3%)
    • Crude oil futures tumble following reports that Russian Energy Minister Novak said Russia's oil production cuts this month will come in slightly below those agreed under the deal between OPEC and non-OPEC producers; WTI -3.7% to $54.63/bbl, Brent -1.2% to $60.32/bbl.
    • Novak also reportedly said the countries in the deal would discuss the agreement and the market situation at OPEC's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting on Sept. 12.
    • But with Russia "faltering," it is possible the production deal "may not be taken for granted," says Price Futures analyst Phil Flynn, while noting Russia "over-complied" in July.
    • Earlier this week, the Monitoring Committee, which monitors compliance with the cuts, pegged overall conformity at 159% in July.
    • The front-month WTI contract still looks headed for a weekly gain after a large drop in U.S. inventories and cautious optimism on trade.
    • United Airlines (UAL) says it's pulling Boeing (BA +0.3%) 737 Max planes from its schedule until December 19.
    • The decision wasn't unexpected after Southwest pushed 737 Max flights back to January 2020 at the earliest.
    • An internal Facebook (FB -0.4%) review shows the company wasn't able to uncover and stop the spread of malicious and false information after the assassination of Brazilian politician Marielle Franco in March 2018.
    • FB relied on third parties and the media to flag issues ahead of that fall's election because it lacked tools for "proactive detection" of certain problems.
    • At the time, Facebook execs touted its Brazil efforts as evidence the platform was making progress with disinformation control.
    • Execs now say the Brazil documents were an early internal appraisal, and FB's defenses have strengthened considerably since the report was written in August 2018.
    • Source: WSJ, viewing the documents.
    • Google (GOOG)(GOOGL -0.1%) researchers uncovered a sustained, two-year campaign to hack large numbers of iPhones (AAPL -0.1%).
    • The researchers "discovered a small collection of hacked websites" that exploited vulnerabilities in iOS. The names of the websites weren't disclosed.
    • Key quote: "Simply visiting the hacked site was enough for the exploit server to attack your device, and if it was successful, install a monitoring implant. We estimate that these sites receive thousands of visitors per week."
    • The implant could give hackers access to a user's contacts, photos, and location plus data from a number of apps.
    • Google informed Apple of the 14 total vulnerabilities on February 1. Apple quickly issued a software update.




  24. Hi Phil,

    What are your thoughts on HQY? They seem to be growing rapidly and completed an acquisition of WAGE (all-cash deal). Seems to be a good healthy company to buy 

    Thank 

    Pat


  25. Phil

    Where to see Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB) heading

     

    I have a few shares and would  like your thoughts  ?

    Thanks


  26. Speaking of a strong Dollar:

     …the reason why the Eurozone will suffer so badly is that the European Central Bank (ECB) is not set up the same way as either the Bank of England (BOE) or the American Federal Reserve. (Fed.) Both the BOE and Fed each control the interest rates and bond issuance for one country. These countries control their own taxation and their own debt: one country, one central bank.

    But the ECB is completely different. It controls one currency (the Euro) but has no control over the debt or taxation of any of the EU member state countries. To make matters worse, it then cross holds debt which means that a bond contagion in one part of the Euro zone can spread to other parts.

    Martin Armstrong sums it up quite well when he says: 'They want one federal government, one single currency, but none of the responsibility of a national debt.'

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/euro/euro-demise-the-crash-of-the-euro-is-inevitable/

    This might all work fine when there are no stresses, the economy is doing well and there is general agreement, but it just will not work in times of severe stress.

    And I think that is what we have coming: severe stress caused by a multitude of factors but particularly the rise in the US dollar and a total loss of faith in governments worldwide.

    Thus, I think that

    • the Euro will collapse against the dollar.
    • the stresses are much bigger than anyone anticipated.
    • it will all happen much quicker than anyone suspects, probably within the next 5 years.

    How low the Euro will go on for before it actually starts to break up is hard to say, but I would imagine it will touch its previous low against the dollar which is about 30% below the current trading level.

    http://www.macrotrends.net/2548/euro-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart

    Can't disagree with the logic there.  UK is out, Spain, Italy and Portugal may join them which would actually leave the Euro stronger but hard to say there's any point to the Union at that point and France may take it as an exit signal – meaning remaining in the EU for small countries would be effectively giving control of your Government to Germany – which is what everyone was worried about when the EU first formed!   BRILLIANT!  

    Image result for brilliant guinness animated gif

    • The count of total active drilling rigs in the U.S. tumbles by another 12 to 904, after falling by 19 a week earlier, Baker Hughes reports in its latest weekly survey.
    • Oil rigs accounted for the entire loss, shedding 12 to 742 after dropping 16 in the previous week; gas rigs held steady at 162.
    • WTI crude oil, already sharply lower, is little changed by the data, -2.5% to $55.31/bbl.

    HQY/Pat – Well, if the Dems get in office their whole middleman gig may be up at some point but, otherwise, a good business with very solid growth and priced well at $3.75Bn ($59.50) considering the growth but still 40x is why I haven't been interested – even after the 50% drop.  Also, keep in mind that, just because they paid $2Bn in cash for WAGE at a 100% premium to last year's low, doesn't mean they had it sitting around – they probably borrowed about $1.8Bn of it so now, at 5%, that's $90M a year just in interest and WAGE was only making $25M on $472M so let's say SQY can make them more efficient and drop 1/3 to the bottom line ($150M) with no bumps – then the combined company is making $250M less $90M in interest and $110M to pay the debt down over 15 years leaves $50M for the shareholders so great if you don't mind waiting for the growth to kick in and the loans to diminish but don't expect any quick returns.  

    Year End 31st Jan 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 TTM 2020E 2021E CAGR / Avg
    Revenue $m 62.0 87.9 126.8 178.4 229.5 287.2 304.4 343.3 393.4 +35.9%
    Operating Profit $m 11.5 16.9 26.1 41.2 54.4 77.7 83.6     +46.5%
    Net Profit $m 1.23 10.2 16.6 26.4 47.4 73.9 93.1 83.9 104.4 +126.7%
    EPS Reported $ -0.14 0.23 0.28 0.44 0.77 1.17 1.46      
    EPS Normalised $ -0.14 0.23 0.28 0.44 0.77 1.17 1.48 1.33 1.58  
    EPS Growth %     +21.4 +56.0 +74.4 +51.8 +64.8 +14.0 +19.0  
    PE Ratio x           50.6 39.9 44.4 37.3  
    PEG x           3.63 2.86 2.34 1.82
    Profitability

    ACB/QC – They actually made $69M last year, which is amazing on $55M in sales, don't you think?  That was financial BS and H2 was a $240M loss and H1 was a $160M loss but maybe that's Canadian money so not as bad as it seems.  devil    Would I buy that for $5.5Bn?  ROFL!!!  

    On the other hand, we're licking our chops at New Age as we can probably generate a legitimate $20M a year in profits by the end of next year ($2M/month) and, hopefully, we can grow it from there.  

    Speaking of which, if we missed getting back to you and you were interested in participating in our new Cannabis Fund, or our Hedge Fund  – contact Greg (at philstockworld dot com) ASAP so we can get the ball rolling on paperwork.  Thanks.


  27. I'm so pissed, they drained my pool!  

    It's sunny today – why drain it now?   I didn't even know that was a thing for hurricanes but I guess the water would overflow…

    AOC just sent out first of new art promoting the dreaded Green New Deal (no, it's not dead just because Trump made fun of it):

    Image

    Image

    Image

    If the Fed would cut, we would have one of the biggest Stock Market increases in a long time. Badly run and weak companies are smartly blaming these small Tariffs instead of themselves for bad management…and who can really blame them for doing that? Excuses!

     

    Palmer Report – Donald Trump’s day so far: – Attacks General Motors – Whines about James Comey – Fox News host Neil Cavuto tells him off – Trump’s personal assistant Madeleine Westerhout gets banned from White House – Impeachment is coming – Trump is going to prison – It’s still only noon

    Image

    White House trade adviser Peter Navarro predicts that the US economy will show 3% growth and the Dow will surpass 30,000 if a number of things occur including the Federal Reserve cutting rates and Congress approving the USMCA trade deal. cnn.it/2PmO7Hk

    Sven Henrich:  2017: Tax cuts will produce 4%-6% GDP growth 2019: ok, so we only got 2% GDP growth but if the Fed cuts rates we’ll get 3% GDP growth

    Fox strikes back against Trump.  

    Wheeeeee – make me some popcorn!  


  28. "The Unstoppable Surge in Negative Yields Reaches $17 Trillion"

    Popeyes quickly ran out of its new, instantly iconic chicken sandwiches after a social media frenzy

    Is A Coordinated Dollar Devaluation Secretly In The Works?

    As I said in 2007, the only way out of the Global Debt Crisis is hyperinflation – I'm only surprised it's taken them this long to begin laying the groundwork.  

    Image

    Oops. down 0.2% from this morning:  Weekly GDP Nowcast: nyfed.org/GDPnowcast Q3 2019 → 1.8%

    Image

    Image

    Even if America avoids a recession, states that Donald Trump needs to win in 2020 are already struggling

    Young Chinese Spend Like Americans—and Take on Worrisome Debt wsj.com/articles/young "Western economists have long said that China needed a base of American-style consumers to bring the country sustained economic growth." Bad economists

    Palmer – If Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron were both drowning and you only had time to save one of them, where would you and Emmanuel Macron go to lunch together afterward?

    Andrew Yang - Which is more unlikely – 1) going from being a complete unknown to 6th in the polls or 2) going from 6th in the polls to winning the whole thing?

    Hurricane Dorian on Aug. 29.

    Hurricane Dorian reached major hurricane status as it heads toward Florida, with the potential to stall near the coast and bring a prolonged period of wind, rain and storm surge.

     
     

    The hurricane’s center was about 625 miles (1,005 kilometers) east of West Palm Beach, Florida, as of 2 p.m. New York time, with maximum sustained winds of 115 miles per hour, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. That wind speed means it has reached the Category 3 level on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

    Dorian is an “extremely dangerous” storm that “poses a significant threat to Florida and the Northwestern Bahamas,” the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory. The hurricane could make landfall late Monday or early Tuesday.

    On its current path, it’s about a $40 billion or $50 billion dollar storm, according to Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research. If Dorian hits Fort Lauderdale and meanders up through Orlando, that is “realistically a $200 billion (!) event,” he wrote in an email.

    DorFri pm

    Image result for south park it's coming right for us gif

    France is still cleaning up Marie Curie’s nuclear waste

    3719P_88_elements_01-CMS

    In 1933 nuclear physicist Marie Curie had outgrown her lab in the Latin Quarter in central Paris. To give her the space needed for the messy task of extracting radioactive elements such as radium from truckloads of ore, the University of Paris built a research center in Arcueil, a village south of the city. Today it’s grown into a crowded ­working-class suburb. And the dilapidated lab, set in an overgrown garden near a 17th century aqueduct, is sometimes called Chernobyl on the Seine.

     
     

    No major accidents occurred at the lab, which closed in 1978. But it’s brimming with radio­activity that will be a health threat for millennia, and France’s nuclear watchdog has barred access to anyone not wearing protective clothing. The lab is surrounded by a concrete wall topped by barbed wire and surveillance cameras. Monitors constantly assess radiation, and local officials regularly test the river. “We’re proof that France has a serious nuclear waste problem,” says Arcueil Mayor Christian Métairie. “Our situation raises questions about whether the country is really equipped to handle it.”

    I love reading random stuff!  


  29. Growth / Phil – What were the Fed rates when Clinton was presiding over 3% growth each year? Higher than today for sure. So tax cuts only work when rates are low? Or are there other conditions needed – like for example growth around the world, lower dollar, no inflation, a cure for cancer, a Godzilla attack, Mexico paying for the wall? If any of the conditions are not met, we can't get 3% growth with the tax cuts?


  30. I think that most people are simply exhausted from the whining, complaining and blaming now!


  31. Phil / HBI – Target will not sell the Champion line next year 


  32. Hello Phil, Naples looks like a good place to weather the storm.  I live in Naples so if you want to get together for lunch or dinner let me know.  Jeff is welcome too.  Naples Beach hotel is a good choice.  It needs a little updating but it is perfectly located.  I cycle by it every time I ride.  It has a beautiful view.


  33. Rates/StJ – They went up and up under Clinton, starting at 3% and topping at 6.5% as Greenspan tried to put a lid on the rally at the time.  Clinton never said boo about it.  I know I'm exhausted!  

    Image result for fed funds rate history by president

    HBI/Batman – Actually, Champion is no longer giving Target and exclusive on their C9 brand, which has only been available through Target for 15 years – they couldn't  come to terms on a renewal.  The deal expires in 2020 and C9 is $380M in sales out of about $800M total HBI sells to TGT (still less than WMT).  HBI is doing a big international push and they feel crippled not selling C9 worldwide so they are not letting TGT keep the exclusive for the small amount they were paying.  TGT has said they intend to replace C9 (but not the rest of HBI) with a store brand but no one knows if that's true.  It's doubtful HBI won't be able to make up $380M of sales by offering C9 to the rest of the planet.  

    At the midpoint, Hanesbrands' guidance is for sales to climb 2% to roughly $6.94 billion in 2019. However, that result isn't as bad as it could have been, considering that Target has de-emphasized the Champion C9 line ahead of its plans to drop it entirely from its stores in 2020. 

    Adjusted operating income is forecast to land in the neighborhood of $970 million, up roughly 2% annually (again, at the midpoint), and if it hits the $750 million midpoint of its operating cash flow target range, that would reflect roughly 16.5% percent growth. The company expects that operating cash flow for 2020 will grow to $900 million — or $1 billion including acquisitions.

    While the company is feeling the headwind of Champion getting less promotion at mass-channel retailers, it still expects the brand to deliver strong sales-flow growth over the next four years. Despite Target's decision to drop the C9 brand, which contributed somewhere in the neighborhood of $400 million in sales in 2018, Hanesbrands projects that total Champion sales will hit $2 billion in 2022 — up from sales of $1 billion in 2017 and $1.36 billion last year. 

    Yet you can buy the whole company for $5Bn at the moment!  

    Naples/Robert – I'll let you guys know when I'm settled in.  Lunch no good during the week but after 4 is.   

    Nice little stick save into the close so all is well(ish).

    Have a great, long weekend everyone, 

    - Phil


  34. Poor Carter – Hard to have a good economy when rates are close to 20%! 


  35. And Trump would argue he inherited a worse situation and did much better than any of these guys!


  36. Actually, reading what HBI and TGT people have been saying about C9, it seems to me that Champion doesn't want that low-priced stuff clouding their brand so the "discontinuing" of C9 MIGHT just be a way that Champion will then white-label a very similar product for TGT that "isn't" Champion.  That's possibly why both sides won't elaborate on plans and also why HBI is not even forecasting a dip in sales.  

    Will be interesting to see how it plays out.


  37. Remember when we used to (accurately) call this treason versus just another Trump tweet….

    https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tweet-may-have-revealed-us-military-secrets-taunting-iran-2019-8

    Just venting, I’m so tired of anything Trump & his complicit Republican enablers


  38. Hussman:

    Meanwhile, it’s also useful to remember how forgiving the complete market cycle is of exiting an overvalued market too early. The fact is that the 2000-2002 collapse wiped out every bit of total return that the S&P 500 had accrued over-and-above T-bills, all the way back to May 1996. The 2007-2009 collapse did the same, all the way back to June 1995.

    The bottom line is that we have a hypervalued market, with the worst estimated prospective return for a conventional mix since the 1929 peak, divergent internals, extreme overextension, and oncoming recession risk. Whatever you’re going to do, do it.






  39. California governor announces deal to cap rising rent prices


  40. Only the Fed Can Save Us


  41. Taliban attack 2nd Afghan city as US envoy says deal is near


  42. Brazil says it is successfully controlling fires in Amazon










  43. Hurricane Dorian’s dangerous politics and 4 other things to watch this week




  44.  Good morning! It looks like the eye of the storm is going to miss us and hopefully most of Florida while it is so strong.

    I’m on the other side of the state in Naples as I wanted to make sure I would have power this week.

    Futures are down a bit but recovering already. Obviously there’s no volume to speak of.  




  45. Tested 2,900 at the open last night:



  46. Futures are negative right now.


  47. And down we go again – back to 2,900.  

    Good morning from Naples.   This storm is moving so slowly it’s still hasn’t hit Florida. I booked the room until Thursday, hopefully I don’t have to extend it. The Bahamas are getting trashed.  






  48. The 10 Biggest IoT Stocks



  49. A Bugatti went 305 miles per hour. That’s a record