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Marked-Up Monday – End of Quarter Window Dressing

chartIt's the last quarter of the decade! 

That's right, we've already gotten through the first two decades of the 21st Century without destroying the planet.  Unfortunately, the odds are getting a lot higher against us for decades 3 and 4 and by 5 we're a long-shot to finish – so it's a good time to check off that bucket list…

As you can see from JP Morgan's S&P 500 Chart (click for a bigger version), the poor RSI line (bottom) lookes tired and we're pretty well set-up for a repeat of last October if things don't improve but certainly we can Unimpeach Trump, Make a Deal With China, Have a Happy Brexit, Bring Peace to the Middle East, Resolve the Hong Kong Protests and reverse Japan's Aging Problem by Christmas – heck, I bet Jared Kushner can get that all done by Hanukkah!  

hong kong protest

Speaking of Jared Kushner, here he is burning evidence over the weekend…  Just kidding, he's in Hong Kong, still protesting the Government and, at this point, we need to consider that nothing is going to make the Hong Kong protesters happy so what will happen next?  China is celebrating their 70th Anniversary tomorrow and they are trying not to have it stained with blood so they've been very restrained but the streets of Hong Kong are literally on fire and they will be forced to respond in the very near future. 

Default alt textThis is week 17 and 1,753 protesters have been arrested and 4 have died (but all ruled suicides) and the police have used 2,731 cannisters of tear gas (I wonder who make that?) but demonstrations have gotten worse, not better and many protesters have sworn to die rather than surrender though, frankly, it's not very clear what it is they actually want.

It's become kind of a protest for protest's sake.  Origninally, the protests were against having Hong Kong citizens extradited to China for trials – that's something I would have protested too, but Hong Kong withdrew that bill and the protesters won but now they want "More Democracy" and, as Americans, we're not really qualified to say what that even is anymore.  

To a large extent, the problem is that Hong Kong is like San Francisco – it's been a magnet for radicals who left mainland China for the relative freedom of British rule for 100 years.  Then, in 1997, England's lease ran out and the handover began and China wisely called for a 50-year transition so a whole generation could get used to the idea, but now we're at the halfway point and China has begun to exert a bit of authority and Hong Kong citizens are cying foul at any sign of Chinese encroachment into their lives.  

Image result for hong kong human chain animated gif89% of the people in Hong Kong insist they are not Chinese but "Hong Kongers" with only THREE (3) percent of people 18-29 identifiying as Chinese citizens – even though their passports say they are.  Check out this video of students, who every day form a human chain that stretches for miles before they go to school, chanting and singing protest songs to start their day.  

At the same time as this is going on, the Chinese have to deal with an American President who is disrespecting their Government and its leaders.  China will need to assert its authority somewhere, soon – and that's one of the reasons we went to CASH!!! into the 4th quarter – this is a bit too dangerous to predict.  

Protesters hold up letters reading 'impeach' in front of the US CapitolMeanwhile, in America, we still cling to the hope that our Constitution protects us from tyranny so we mostly sit back complacenty, waiting for the wheels of justice to grind along and give us good Government without requiring any of us to get off the couch.  Fortunately, we have a few idealists who still get out there to remind us that there is an out there – I know this for a fact because I saw it on Facebook and I did my part by clicking "Like"!

Trump's impeachment is actually moving forward pretty quickly because Nancy Pelosi cleverly laid our the groundwork for it with a sweeping set or rule changes when the Democrats took control back in January in an operation called "Lawfare" to make sure they had a system in place that the Senate couldn't block and Trump couldn't wriggle out of, which is why Trump, last week, attempted to declare that Nancy Pelosi was no longer the Speaker of the House (NOT something he has control over).

"All" is a very good word to use when you fact GOP lawyers who look for any sort of ambiguity to deflect or delay legal actions.  ALL is a very clear word and does not leave a lot of room for interpretation.  This is where Team Trump is running into trouble as even the stuff they hid on "classified" servers are still fair game for the House to have a look at and ANY actions that violate the Constitution or Trump's Oath of Office are subject to extensive investigation

So this isn't going away, no matter what you heard on Fox over the weekend…

We just got a GDP Report on Thursday showing just 2% annual growth and, over the weekend, Los Angeles Airport (LAX) showed International Travel volumes down 3.1% from least year and Air Cargo Tonnage fell 8% in August and is now down 4.7% for the year – a very bad indicator of things to come of this trade war keeps dragging along.  Contrary to what you have heard (again on Fox) the US is not immune to the Global Slowdown that is evident everywhere we look and gosh – this is such a flashback to my warnings of 2007 and 2008!  

Trump made a comment about the US limiting investments in China and, over the weekend, China said "US investment curbs will have ‘significant repercussions" – doesn't sound like we're going to drop all that and come to terms in the next 30 days, does it?   China's state-owned outlet criticized the move by the U.S. politicians, saying that they “seem to believe that a decoupling from China will be simple” and “won’t significantly impact its economy.”

Meanwhile, China’s top trade negotiator will be leading the country’s delegation to the U.S. for the next round of discussions one week after China’s National Holiday, Commerce Ministry Vice Minister Wang Shouwen said Sunday.  “We look forward to the 13th round of negotiations,” Wang said in Mandarin, according to a CNBC translation. “We hope both sides, on the basis of equal and mutual respect, jointly take care of each other’s concerns and, with a calm attitude, use negotiations to resolve differences, and find a resolution that’s beneficial to both sides.”  That and $5 will get you a Pumpkin Spiced Latte but don't hope for more…

It's going to be another busy week of Fed speak with FIFTEEN (15) speaches in FOUR (4) days including Chaiman Powell on Friday at 2pm.  Clearly the Fed is worried about something but not today – because it's the last day of the month and they can count on the Fund Managers to pump up the end of the quarter but we have Chicago PMI and the Dallas Fed this morning and tomorrow it's PMI, ISM and Construction Spending and, of course, Friday is Non-Farm Payrolls and that has been trending South, so 5 Fed Speakers on Friday to mop up that mess.

Image

 


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  1. Good Morning


  2. Not a broad move up:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/fewer-stocks-are-participating-in-the-markets-rally-11569749400

    U.S. stocks are hovering near record levels but many are struggling to break out of a narrow trading range to hit new highs. One reason: Fewer individual stocks are contributing to the rally.


  3. And someone should take the phone away from Trump – more unhinged than usual and might incriminate himself.


  4. Good Morning!


  5. Atitlan – Sold a few more WLL March 8 puts at $2.05.  Sold stock two weeks ago for average of f$ 9.70.   Would love to buy back at %5.95..


  6. RUT 50 DMA will be dropping off 7/22 1545, 7/23 1555, 7/24 1580, 7/25 1561 and 7/26 1579 this week so if RUt stays down at current level 50 day moving ave will be coming down





  7. What’s the Matter With Republicans?


  8. Good morning!

    BBBY finally getting some love.  Earnings not until Weds but I guess people couldn't wait.

    Big Chart – Was looking ugly but all fixed this morning but watch the RUT, which is right on the edge of a major failure at 1,520 (200 dma).  Obviously, this is a completely meaningless day with window-dressing for EOQ AND it's a Monday.

    And what Den said!  

    Fewer stocks/StJ – Yes, it's been very hard to find a broad-based trend the last few weeks.  As to Trump, his biggest problem right now is EVIDENCE.  He says he demands to know who the whistleblower is so he can "face his accuser" which sounds reasonable until you remember his supporters drive cars into protesters for him.  All they want is a character they can assassinate but this whistleblower has uncovered FACTS and it really doesn't matter if it's Melania or not – the facts can now speak for themselves…


  9.  

    Bed Bath & Beyond: Wedbush sees 'good' chance of stabilization in earnings over next two year.(9.89)

    Wedbush's Seth Basham upgraded BBBY to "Outperform" from "Neutral" with a $16 price target,



  10. Whoa – second time in a week that I've seen a photo of trader #588 here! What can this mean? Is it related to Cramer wearing a suit?


  11. Phil/morning post

    ‘Good’? Morning!

    A depressing post, and you did not even address the lockdown and arrest of 13,000 teenagers and young adults in Kashmir, India, who are locked up without access to a lawyer (haha! What’s that) and if reports are to be believed, are being abused without fear of repercussions by troops.

    Now, I am not to indulge and delve in politics, but you are absolutely correct that we have become dangerously complacent….we will pay the price for that, I am sure.

    Thanks for your post anyway, as I know you are simply the messenger.

    Gilead looks to be eligible for sale of some puts here at $63? This level has been support for a while and

    they have a new CEO since March, hoping to jumpstart acquisitions, maybe?


  12. Comment content omitted because it is too long.


  13. LOL, I've been saying that all summer:

    BBBY/Albo:

    Metric

    Three Months Ended June 1, 2019

    Three Months Ended June 2, 2018

    YOY Increase (Decrease)

    Revenue

    $2.57 billion

    $2.75 billion

    (7%)

    Gross profit margin

    34.5%

    35%

    (0.5 pp)

    Operating expenses

    $893 million

    $884 million

    1%

    Goodwill impairment and other charges

    $401 million

    N/A

    N/A

    Earnings (loss) per share

    ($2.91)

    $0.32

    N/A

    Adjusted EPS

    $0.12

    $0.38

    (68%)

    Kind of hard to make a profit when you have a NON-CASH impairment of $3.13/share but what happens when they don't have it anymore?  I think the frenzy on them is Banksters trying to scare people out of the stock while they load up.


  14. Submitted on 2019/07/18 at 3:14 pm

    BBBY/Batman – At this point, you have to have faith but they are under attack from all sides.  $10 should have held and hasn't but you can't go by a single day's trading though the trend is not your friend either.  They just has earnings and said things were fine, the charges that hit earnings were all non-cash but people are unwilling to let things play out.  This is going to be a losing year for them (-$137M) but next two years should make $200M, which is not a stretch at all and $10/share is $1.2Bn so not at all overpriced but people can extrapolate the -$137M to -$270M and -$500M by simply putting a worst-case spin on it and, if those people can convince their creditors that that's the case – the company can actually be in trouble simply out of the fear that's surrounding them.

    Year End 02nd Mar 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 TTM 2020E 2021E CAGR / Avg
    Revenue $m 11,504 11,881 12,104 12,216 12,349 12,029 11,848 11,392 11,168 +0.9%
    Operating Profit $m 1,615 1,554 1,415 1,135 761.3 -87.1 -575.2      
    Net Profit $m 1,022 957.5 841.5 685.1 424.9 -137.2 -551.9 233.7 224.3  
    EPS Reported $ 4.79 5.07 5.10 4.58 3.12 -1.02 -4.29      
    EPS Normalised $ 4.79 5.07 5.10 4.58 3.12 1.45 0.28 1.91 2.07 -21.3%
    EPS Growth % +5.1 +5.8 +0.6 -10.3 -31.9 -53.6 -90.2 +32.0 +8.38  
    PE Ratio x           6.99 35.5 5.30 4.89  
    PEG x           0.22 1.11 0.63 0.62
    Profitability

    588/Snow – It's an inside joke – they try to find pictures of him and use him as stock photos and then photographers started taking more pictures of him, etc. and it snowballed.

    Kashmir/Maya – Too much injustice in the World, not enough time for it all.  And keep in mind that's me trying to keep things positive! crying  

    As to GILD, I certainly like to buy them in the low $60s.  $63.35 is $80Bn and GILD is good for maybe $8Bn this year ($3.8Bn first half) so very reasonable down here.   They fact competition on some key products but nothing terribly impactful is likely over the next 24 months so I do like selling a 1/4 position of 2022 $60 puts for $10.50 to plant a flag with a net $49.50 entry.

    They do pay a $2.52 dividend so buying the stock at $63.35 and selling the 2022 $60 puts for $10.50 and the 2022 $55 calls for $13.50 is net $39.35 and up $15.65 (40%) if called away at $55 PLUS $5.67 in 9 dividends is $21.32 back on $39.35 for a 54% gain in two years if GILD manages just to hold $55.  That's a nice, conservative play!


  15. Phil- some of your context was omitted as "too long?" Anyways BBBY has a heavy short interest of 9 &1/2 days so I think your right. They should beat and the slightest move up will catapult thse shorts giving further impetus.


  16. PMI / Phil – I guess now another rate cut will be called for… When you add up the latest numbers, it doesn't read like the best economy ever. And we are out of ammo with already a $1T deficit and rates that aren't high anyway. And with the current crew at the wheel, no reason to be very optimistic.


  17. Hi Phil – Do you see some support of /GC and /SI at these levels? Not sure why they are selling off, since the $dxy move is not that large — Thx


  18. Honey badger seems to be digging underground now!


  19. Too long/Pirate – I've had that problem all my life…  cheeky  Usually the comments say too long over background data, like the spreadsheets or too many links.  I just broke it up into the following 2 comments – going for about half and then seeing how much of the rest can fit is the way I've learned to solve the problem…

    Rate Cut/StJ – Trump may not care but the Fed cares about their reputation/perception.  If people lose faith in their policies, they may no longer have the power to make a difference.

    Gold and Silver/RS – Iran, Brexit, China trade – all calmed down a bit so less flight to safety.  Dollar is very high at 99, gold and silver only back a bit so far but holding gains against the Dollar from the summer is a strong indicator but I wouldn't chase them at the moment..

    /KC more reliable off the $100 line.

    Oil testing $55 with /BZ testing $60 should be good for a bounce but right out if not! 

    /RB too scary to play and /NG collapsing all the way back too

    .


  20. Dallas Fed Manufacturing activity higher than anticipated in September

    • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey: +1.5 vs. +1.0 consensus and +2.7 prior.
    • Production: 13.9 vs. 17.9 prior.
    • Capacity utilization: 12 vs. 15.7 prior.
    • New Orders: 7.1 vs. 9.3 prior.

    German Inflation Unexpectedly Slows After ECB Stimulus Drive

    • German inflation rose an annual 0.9% in September, falling well short of ECB Euro area aim of just under 2% rate, after the ECB decided to deploy fresh stimulus.
    • Policy makers are planning to buy bonds as a part of the stimulus, until the inflation rate will hover just below 2% rate.
    • ECB officials cited domestic resilience reason against restarting quantitative easing. An executive board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger,  balk at the stimulus decision and unexpectedly quit last week.
    • Outgoing ECB President Mario Draghi said the institution can do more if needed. Yet monetary stimulus will be less effective and last longer unless European governments step up spending, he said.
    • Source: Investing.com

    Fannie, Freddie will be allowed to stash more cash

    • Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMAwill be allowed to hold $25B of capital and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC

       
      $3.61
       0.13 3.85%

      Freddie Mac operates in the secondary mortgage market in the United States.
      52 Week Range
      0.98 - 4.04

      Market Cap.
      11.21B

      ) will be allowed to keep $20B of capital, the U.S. Treasury Department and Federal Housing Finance Agency announce, taking a key step in the Trump Administration's plan to release the mortgage giants from government control.

    • The agencies agree to modify the preferred stock purchase agreements that currently allow the GSEs to each hold onto only $3B of capital reserves.
    • The agencies plan to make additional changes to Fannie and Freddie's capital structures.
    • To compensate Treasury for the dividends that it would have received absent these modifications, Treasury’s liquidation preferences for its Fannie and Freddie preferred stock will gradually increase by the amount of the additional capital reserves until the liquidation preferences increase by $22B for Fannie Mae and $17B for Freddie Mac.
    • The Treasury, Fannie, and Freddie also agreed to negotiate additional amendments to the PSPAs that would further enhance taxpayer protections by adopting covenants that are broadly consistent with the recommendations for administrative reforms contained in the housing reform plan the Treasury submitted earlier this month.
    • Previously: Fannie, Freddie poised to pause Treasury sweeps soon – WSJ (Sept. 23)

    American Express, Delta relaunch cards with new rewards, fees

    • American Express (AXP +0.2%) and Delta Air Lines (DAL -0.4%ramp up rewards as well as the annual fees they'll charge as they relaunch their Delta SkyMiles American Express card portfolio.
    • Annual membership fee on their Reserve Card increases to $550 as of Jan. 30, 2020 from $450 currently, on the Platinum Card rises to $250 from $195, and on the Gold Card goes up to $99 from $95.
    • Card members will be able to earn more miles on everyday purchases and access more travel perks, the companies said.
    • Business Cards will feature a new set of benefits, as well.
    • The redesigned cards "will deliver rich rewards and benefits that give travelers unmatched options that fit their lifestyle needs,” said Sandeep Dube, Delta’s senior vice president – customer engagement & loyalty, and CEO – Delta Vacations.
    • Previously: AmEx deal boosts chances for Berkshire buying Delta Air: Stifel (April 3)
    • Rising concern about commercial flying's impact on the environment will serve to slow passenger growth and reduce jet sales from Boeing (BA -0.7%) and Airbus (OTCPK:EADSY +0.6%), UBS analysts say in a new report.
    • UBS says a survey of more than 6K people showed a growing number of travelers in Europe and the U.S. already have reduced the number of flights they took over the last 12 months because of heightened climate change awareness.
    • European governments are moving to discourage flying: France soon will introduce a €1.5 tax on domestic tickets, rising to €18 ($20) on long haul travel, Germany plans to double its taxes for flights originating from Germany starting next January, and Switzerland is proposing a flight tax.
    • UBS's model predicts the concerns of the flying public combined with the increased cost will reduce intra-European traffic growth over the next 20 years to 1.5%/year vs. the 3% annually growth recently estimated by Airbus.

    Shell reports Q3 drop in upstream production while LNG output jumps

    • Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A -0.6%) says it expects to incur $700M-$850M in Q3 net charges, excluding currency impacts, while upstream oil and gas production slipped by as much as 2.7% compared with a year earlier.
    • In a quarterly outlook released ahead of Q3 earnings, Shell says it expects Q3 upstream production of 2.6M-2.65M boe/day, down from 2.67M boe/day in the year-ago quarter, after previously forecasting upstream output rising 50K-100K boe/day Y/Y.
    • Shell also estimates Q3 LNG liquefaction volumes at 9M-9.3M metric tons, up from 8.18M mt in Q3 2018, and production in its integrated gas unit, which provides gas for LNG, of 930K-960K boe/day, up from 924K boe/day a year earlier.
    • In its downstream activities, Shell says Q3 refinery availability was 90%-92%, roughly in-line with a year earlier, oil product sales rose to 6.7M-7.35 M bbl/day, and chemical sales fell to 3.9M-4M mt following the sale of its stake in Saudi refining joint venture SASREF.

    Union Gaming sees upside for Vegas casino estimates

    • Union Gaming breaks down the gaming win report from the Nevada Gaming Control Board.
    • Analyst John DeCree: "Las Vegas Strip gaming revenue growth accelerates to +8.9% in August from +1.6% in July. Through the first two months of the quarter, gaming revenue on the Strip is up an encouraging 5.1%. While the September comparison is a bit harder for the state overall, it's still quite a bit easier for the Strip as GGR declined 3.9% y/y in September 2018, due primarily to low table hold, specifically on baccarat."
    • DeCree and team say the positive trends could represent upside to Las Vegas Strip estimates for MGM Resorts (MGM +0.9%), Wynn Resorts (WYNN +0.2%), and Las Vegas Sands (LVS +1.1%)

    Insider buying at GameStop

    • Barron's reminds that four GameStop (GME +2.6%) insiders have snapped up shares this month in the first open-market purchases by insiders since September of 2016.
    • The insider buying action arrived after shares of GameStop fell off more than 50% YTD and with the retailer now a battleground stock between longs and shorts.

    WeWork formally withdrawing IPO filing

    • WeWork (WEannounces it will file a request to withdraw its S-1 statement that was initially filed with the SEC on August 14.
    • Co-CEOs Artie Minson and Sebastian Gunningham: "We have decided to postpone our IPO to focus on our core business, the fundamentals of which remain strong. We are as committed as ever to serving our members, enterprise customers, landlord partners, employees and shareholders. We have every intention to operate WeWork as a public company and look forward to revisiting the public equity markets in the future."
    • WeWork (WE) needs to stop burning cash and its new co-CEOs are considering thousands of job cutsselling recently acquired businesses, and removing previous luxuries like the private jet.
    • WE had $2.5B in cash as of June 30 and is currently burning through $700M per quarter, according to Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Chris Lane. At this rate, WeWork will run out of money some time after Q1 2020.
    • Last year, WeWork made a bond offering that requires the company to keep at least $500M in cash.
    • Macy's (M +0.8%) plans to close a landmark store in downtown Seattle in February of next year.
    • "After careful consideration, Macy's, Inc. has decided to sell the Downtown Seattle Macy’s building," states the department store operator.
    • The historic building on 3rd Avenue in Seattle has housed department stores for decades, including under the Macy's banner since 2005.

    Apple's mini LED switch benefits LG, says analyst

    • Noted Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says the company will start using mini LED screens in MacBooks and iPads as early as Q4 CY20 to H1 2021.
    • The mini LEDs offer some OLED benefits but aren't as susceptible to "burn in" problems and would help Apple cut its supplier reliance on Samsung (OTC:SSNNF,OTC:SSNLF).
    • Kuo names LG Display (LPL +3.5%) as one of the main beneficiaries of Apple's screen switch.

    Apple's 2020 iPhone could drive growth – JPMorgan

    • JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee says Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) 2019 product cycle is stronger than the "muted expectations" and expects sentiment to "improve materially" with upward revisions to this year's volume expectations.
    • Strong adoption of the 5G iPhone expected in 2020 "will drive high investor confidence in the sustainability of revenue growth even in the backdrop of a mature smartphone market."
    • JPMorgan has an Overweight rating on Apple and sets the PT at $265 for the end of 2020 and $243 for 2019.
    • Apple shares are up 0.9% pre-market to $220.80. The company has an Outperform average Sell Side rating

  21. Long some corn this morning – I think that was a Phil call last week? Doing quite well here…


  22. Phil any thoughts on WHR getting a bit frothy up here?


  23. Corn/Ati – Nope, I was liking Soybeans, Coffee and OJ.  Corn very impressive though.  

    WHR/Coulter – We picked them as a value this year and now they are only not as cheap – certainly not expensive at $158, which is only $10Bn with WHR very much on track to $1Bn in sales with $550M in profits in Q1 and Q2 and that's WITH tariff issues holding them back.  Look at New Home Sales, which spiked up last week along with existing Home Sales (we were long on HOV too!) – don't those homes come with appliances? 

    Year End 31st Dec 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 TTM 2019E 2020E CAGR / Avg
    Revenue $m 18,769 19,872 20,891 20,718 21,253 21,037 20,932 20,491 20,458 +2.3%
    Operating Profit $m 1,249 1,188 1,242 1,368 1,136 279 1,062     -25.9%
    Net Profit $m 827 650 783 888 350 -183 918 971.5 1,046  
    EPS Reported $ 10.2 8.17 9.83 11.5 10.3 -2.93 14.0      
    EPS Normalised $ 12.5 9.51 12.5 14.3 13.5 6.68 16.5 15.2 16.7 -11.7%
    EPS Growth % +82.6 -23.8 +31.3 +14.6 -5.5 -50.5 +95.8 +127.1 +9.82  
    PE Ratio x           23.3 9.40 10.2 9.33  
    PEG x           0.18 0.074 1.04 0.81
    Profitability


  24. Phil

    what about CANE ?

    Thanks


  25. Hi Phil,

    I have 2 MJ sold puts Jan 2020 strike price $30 for a $3.30 credit. I'm thinking about ditching them as MJ shows no sign of recovery…Thoughts? Thanks….


  26. Hi Phil,  you mentioned HOV,  What´s your opinion on Lennar  (LEN) ?


  27. Trying to sell some calls to cover on CANE – that was a good Phil pick!

    Wish I didn't already own enough WLL Albo. Looks like you picked a decent day to sell puts.


  28. A little fade into the close but not much damage. 

    CANE/QC – That was an OOP trade from 9/13 but then we killed the OOP:

    September 13th, 2019 at 11:19 am | (Unlocked) | Permalink 

    I'm liking Sugar (/SB) here at $10:50, fun to play.  /SBH20 takes you into March, catching Christmas and Easter demand and it's $11.96 so it can be played above $12 with tight stops below.

    CANE is the ETF and this is usually the bottom (around $6) and, for the OOP, I'd like to just buy 20 of the Jan $6 calls for 0.60 ($1,200) and see how that goes.

    The Jan $6s are now 0.90 so up 50% is not bad for 2 weeks and most likely the ETF is just pausing at that upper resistance because Sugar (/SB) is way up since 9/13.  The /SBH20s just hit $12.80 but /SB is only $11.20 per penny so +$896 on the contracts.  

    It's not something we usually (one other time, years ago, I think) play.  It was just unusually cheap and I mentioned it at the time as a high percentage play.

    MJ/Sun – Yeah, sorry about that.  The problem with MJ, as I finally figured out on Benzinga, is that it's almost all Canadian stocks and they really have no net advantage since they can't sell to the US or most other markets and, as a group, they wasted a lot of money and over-produced the crops, flooding the market and lowering prices.  I think TCNNF is a better way to play MJ long-term, they are making good money in medical and will be in great position as legalization spreads. 

    LEN/Advill – I like HOV because they very much stick to the East Coast, where they are experts with ins at all the realtors (so they know what's coming up) and with planning and zoning boards, etc.  There's nothing wrong with LEN, they are a strong operator – it's just that HOV was stupidly cheap, so I was banging the table on them despite an uncertain environment for the builders.  Now I find neither one exciting as they are both back to realistic prices for this part of a cycle.

    A little bit of a push up after hours.  We should impeach Trump more often…


  29. Shopping Center REITs: Dodging Bullets