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Testy Tuesday – Q4 Begins With a Lot of Concerns

Is Impeachment an Elitist move that shifts power away from the voters?  

Of course not, that's idiotic as the voters elected the representatives (by actual majorities) that exercise their Constitutionally Mandated oversight of the President who was, in fact, put in power by an elitist Electoral College that did, in fact, ignore the popular vote.  Still, that's the headline Fox "News" is going with this morning as part of an all-out GOP effort to discredit our Government, our laws and our processes – whatever it takes to keep their guy in power

The "President" is, in fact, calling for a Civil War now and is back to his usual media bashing, making me wonder if it was all a dream when we were told in school that a free press is the backbone upon which a Democracy is built.  Since Coporate Dollars have now crept into every click an article generates, there is really no such thing as a free press anymore as it's now all about pleasing the advertisers anyway.

"Liberty cannot be preserved without a general knowledge among the people, who have a right, from the frame of their nature, to knowledge, as their great Creator, who does nothing in vain, has given them understandings, and a desire to know; but besides this, they have a right, an indisputable, unalienable, indefeasible, divine right to that most dreaded and envied kind of knowledge, I mean, of the characters and conduct of their rulers. Rulers are no more than attorneys, agents, and trustees, of the people; and if the cause, the interest, and trust, is insidiously betrayed, or wantonly trifled away, the people have a right to revoke the authority that they themselves have deputed, and to constitute other and better agents, attorneys and trustees."  -  John AdamsA Dissertation on the Canon and Feudal Law (1765)

"The moment we no longer have a free press, anything can happen. What makes it possible for a totalitarian or any other dictatorship to rule is that people are not informed; how can you have an opinion if you are not informed? If everybody always lies to you, the consequence is not that you believe the lies, but rather that nobody believes anything any longer. This is because lies, by their very nature, have to be changed, and a lying government has constantly to rewrite its own history. On the receiving end you get not only one lie—a lie which you could go on for the rest of your days—but you get a great number of lies, depending on how the political wind blows. And a people that no longer can believe anything cannot make up its mind. It is deprived not only of its capacity to act but also of its capacity to think and to judge. And with such a people you can then do what you please."  -  Hannah Arendt

In the First Amendment, the Founding Fathers gave the free press the protection it must have to fulfill its essential role in our democracy. The press was to serve the governed, not the governors. The Government's power to censor the press was abolished so that the press would remain forever free to censure the Government. The press was protected so that it could bare the secrets of government and inform the people. - Hugo L. Black, (New York Times Company v. United States, 1971).

"The last right we shall mention regards the freedom of the press. The importance of this consists, besides the advancement of truth, science, morality, and arts in general, in its diffusion of liberal sentiments on the administration of Government, its ready communication of thoughts between subjects, and its consequential promotion of union among them whereby oppressive officers are shamed or intimidated into more honourable and just modes of conducting affairs."  - Letter sent by the Continental Congress (October 26, 1774) to the Inhabitants of Quebec. 

Image result for trump crimes cartoonThat last one was about as directly from the Founding Fathers as you can get.  The press is here SPECIFICALLY to hold our Government leaders accountable to the people who elected them AFTER they get to office.  Trump thinks getting to office (by any means necessary) then means he has to answer to no one but, if that were the case – why are there Rules for Impeachment in the Constitution in the first place?  

“The President, Vice President and all Civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.”  — U.S. Constitution, Article II, section 4

And what are "Hign Crimes and Misdemeanors"?  Well, we can ask the lady who wrote the book (literally) on the subject in the Watergate Era – Hillary Clinton.  As noted in the bi-partisan Watergate Report, "high crimes" was not an invention of the framers of the constituation but a long-settled phrase in English Law that generally meant crimes committed by people of a high office – not some special super-crime that Trump hasn't been caught doing yet – simply extortion and perverting his oath of office is more than enough to get him impeached.  

So why doesn't the market seem to care about all this turmoil (or anything else, for that matter)?  Here we are, back near our all-time highs with a Dollar at long-term highs and stock valuations at all-time highs – as if everything is great and can only get greater…  Well, for one thing, "we didn't start the fire – it was always burning since the World's been turning" – if you can trivialize the things we worried about 50 years ago – why worry abotu this now?

"Birth control, Ho Chi Minh, Richard Nixon back again
Moonshot, Woodstock, Watergate, punk rock
Begin, Reagan, Palestine, terror on the airline
Ayatollah's in Iran, Russians in Afghanistan
"Wheel of Fortune", Sally Ride, heavy metal, suicide
Foreign debts, homeless vets, AIDS, crack, Bernie Goetz
Hypodermics on the shores, China's under martial law
Rock and roller cola wars, I can't take it anymore"

This too shall pass is the mantra for the stock market, which has outlived all this nonsense and the Great Depression and two World Wars.  In fact, the "Brugse Beurze" (pictured in center) was established in 1409 and THAT was the first institutional stock market but bankers in Venice were trading Government Securities since 1351 so, to put it mildly, Stock Markets have survived pretty much everything – Donald Trump isn't going to take them down – even if he goes down, which is looking very likely.

There are plenty of opportunities in the market – no matter what's going on in the World or the economy.  As I mentioned last week, in our Tuesday Mornng Report, we were playing Soybeans (/ZS) long at 895.50 in anticipation of China placing a large order for Soybeans and, finally, we got the order yesterday – for 1 MILLION TONS!  There's also a few Million more tons coming and /ZS has popped up to 908 this morning and those /ZS contracts pay a very nice $50 per 1 unit move so, just since last week – they are up another $625 for EACH long contract – (you're welcome!) and our options spread (for the Futures Impaired) was:

  • Buy 50 Nov $14 calls for $1.10 ($5,500) 
  • Sell 50 Nov $15 puts for 0.95 ($4,750) 

Which we began with at net $750 in May but was already net $3,750 last week but we said it would be good to stick out for the additional double at $7,500 and already they are at $1.60/0.70 for net $4,500 – up another $750 (20%) since last week's report – which you saved $21 on by not subscribing for the week – BRILLIANT!  

We also featured a brand new trade idea for Coffee (/KCH20) at $102 and we hit $108 yesterday for a nice $2,250 gain per contract and our ETF (JO) trade idea (all from the same day's Report) was:

Coffee does have an ETF (JO) and, like SOYB above, we can pick up a spread that can give us a nice return.  We think $100 (though it can dip below) is a good floor for Coffee as it's a point below which the farmers simply can't make money selling it.  For the ETF, which is at $32.50, we can do the following spread:

  • Sell 5 JO March $30 puts for $1.40 ($800) 
  • Buy 10 JO March $30 calls for $4.40 ($4,400)
  • Sell 10 JO March $32 calls for $3.20 ($3,200) 

That's net $400 on the $2,000 spread so $1,600 (400%) upside potential if JO holds $32 into March.  As long as /KC stays above $98, you should get paid in full.  The downside to this trade is that, below $30, you would be forced to buy 500 shares of JO at $30 ($15,000) but we like that price and you can turn right around and sell calls against it to lower the basis further.

Already the 5 short March $30 puts are 0.98 ($490) and the $30/32 bull call spread is $4.70/3.45 for net $1.25 ($1,250) is net net $760 and up $360 (90%), which isn't bad for a week's work – just something fun we can do with our CASH!!! while we wait on the sidelines this month.

Today, with the Dollar up at 99.25 and likely to at least pull back from $100, we can take advantage of Silver (/SI) testing the $17 line and playing bullish above it and Gold (/YG) at $1,465 is another good bullish play and Natural Gas (/NG) is a nice long at $2.25 as it's still hurricane season and could spike up quickly and, if not, $2.25 is still a pretty good price for /NG.

The chart says it could drop close to $2 and /NG contracts cost you $100 per penny if you are wrong so that's $2,500 to lose but I'd put a stop below the $2.25 line and go long again at $2.15 with conviction and double down at $2.05 to average $2.10 in 2 contracts and hold onto that for the long run.  

If you are Futures impaired, there is a Natural Gas ETF (UNG) and the way I would play that one is:

  • Sell 5 UNG Jan $19 puts for $1.80 ($900) 
  • Buy 10 UNG Jan $15 calls for $4.80 ($4,800) 
  • Sell 10 UNG Jan $19 calls for $2.50 ($2,500)

That's net $1,400 on the $4,000 spread so $2,600 (185%) upside potential if UNG can hold $19 into Jan 17th expirations.  If not, the break-even is $17.70 so /NG would have to drop more than 10% for you to get burned on this one.  Hopefully it does as well as our last set!

See, there's always something we can play…

 


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  1. Good Morning!



  2. Most corrupt administration ever it seems! No one is not lying, no one… 


  3. Markets / Phil – Right now, I have to assume that markets are not reacting because there must be some trust there that the institutions will hold (barely) which is needed for a stable investment environment. It's kind of tenuous at the moment as these guys seem to be ready to take down the entire system to stay in power, but at least there is a process started. My guess is that markets will start to react if they see a failure of that process and that will be apparent very quickly. And civil wars don't generally lead to new highs!


  4. Phil-Why does the market go higher? One reason is that is no where else for people to park their money. Banks, credit card company's,

     

     

    Phil- the reason the market stays up is there is nowhere else to put your money to make a return that is at least over the inflation level. With Europe in a mess exasperates the situation as they are in sinking ship financially speaking if not politically, at least in Britain anyways.


  5. Good morning!

    Big Chart still ugly – won't take much to tip us into Technical Hell.

    Related imageCivil War/StJ – Aside from being a box office smash (Gone with the Wind, The Avengers…) is the market higher now than it was before the Civil War?  'Nuff said then!

    Nowhere/Pirate – Ah, I was going to make that point but got distracted thinking about the nuances of impeachment.  Not only nowhere to park money but the rest of the World is falling apart:

    Euro-Area Manufacturing Slump Deepens in Worst Month Since 2012

    Japan business mood sours to six-year low as trade war bites

    Most Asian units slip; South Korean won drops the most on bleak data

    US dollar powers to 29-month high, stocks stay standing despite weak data

    Poor PMI data turns European shares lower

    Sensex nosedives over 700 pts on Tuesday: Four reasons behind steep fall

    • "We expect that weak macro data points as well as disappointing auto sales numbers may also weigh on the investor sentiments in the near term. We expect that the RBI monetary policy may provide further direction to the  We envisage a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in the policy, however, the central bank’s outlook on inflation and growth would be a key monitorable," said Ajit Mishra, Vice President, Research at Religare Broking.

    There's been no mention at all of the India melt-down and it's interesting how they too expect their Fed to save them.  Everyone expects to be saved by the Fed – as if they didn't learn 10 years ago the CBs can't really save everyone at once.  

    Ignoring trouble around the World is how we were "surprised" by the 2008 crash.  I may be early getting out – but I feel very good about it.


  6. Phil You have always been early! Much better than being too late! We know this is going to correct and when it does, it is not going to end well. I'm thinking of pension funds, IRA's the whole ball park imploding including the whole house of cards with government runaway debt, banks. There is no cushion now.


  7. And it is heading down now. Vxx might be a good option.


  8. Great WeWork recap here:

    http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/10/marketing-expert-scott-galloway-on-wework-and-adam-neumann.html

    This guy has been spot on the entire time!


  9. September ISM Manufacturing Index 47.8 vs 50.2 Briefing.com consensus; August 49.1


  10. phil/banks

    what happened…all banks took a dive…

    regards



  11. pat_swap/banks

    More fall out from Shcwab announcing they were getting rid of all commissions on stock transactions?


  12. Well, that was a hell of a comedown off the ISM Report:

    • The final reading of Purchasing Managers Index manufacturing data for the euro zone came in at 45.7 for September. While the reading was 0.1 higher than the flash estimate, it's still the lowest level recorded for a month since October 2012.
    • Germany led the manufacturing weakness in Europe with a PMI mark of 41.7 vs. 43.5% in August.
    • "The downward trend in new orders, which fell the most in more than 10 years, is a particular worry, and continues to drive cutbacks in factory output, employment and prices," notes IHS Markit's Phil Smith.

    • August Construction Spending+0.1% M/M to $1,287.3B vs. +0.5% consensus, +0.0% prior (revised).
    • Construction spending -1.9% vs. -2.7% prior.
    • Chain store sales increased 5.8% for the week ending September 28 in an acceleration from last week's pace of +5.2%, according to the latest report from Johnson Redbook.
    • Chain store sales are anticipated to have gained 5.6% for the full month.

    • Oil prices are tracking higher on reports that production in U.S. and Russia fell during the third quarter.
    • While oil prices are forecast to remain fairly steady for the balance of the year, many market watchers think upward pricing pressure is fading away with Saudi Arabia believed to have restored capacity to 11.3M barrels per day after the attack on September 14 knocked out 5.7M bpd of output. "Demand growth is weakening, oil supply outside OPEC is rising significantly and OPEC+'s production discipline has recently faded," noted Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch.
    • In today's early action, WTI crude oil futures +1.0% to $54.61/bbl and Brent crude +0.9% to $59.81/bbl.
    • U.S. auto sales are forecast by Edmunds to fall 11.6% in September to 1,267,607 new cars and trucks for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17.1M.
    • "September auto sales look a little bleak on paper, but it's just a matter of a tough year-over-year comparison," noted Edmunds analyst Jeremy Acevedo on the timing of the Labor Day holiday.
    • Unit sales are expected to drop 5.2% for General Motors (NYSE:GM) in September, while Toyota (NYSE:TM), Ford (NYSE:F) and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (NYSE:FCAU) are all expected to post a double-digit drop for the month.
    • Incentive spending in Q3 is projected to rise 6% to $4,159 to mark the highest level ever for the period and fall just $28 short of the all-time quarter high set in Q4 of 2017.
    • In addition to the sales updates, commentary from Ford execs on demand trends and GM management on the impact of the workers strike will be closely watched this week.
    • Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is expected to update on deliveries sometime during the first few days of October.
    • The EV automaker delivered 95,356 cars in Q2 and is forecast by analysts to deliver around 97K in Q3, although Elon Musk told employees last week the company has a shot at hitting 100K deliveries.
    • Looking ahead to Q4, the consensus estimate from analysts is for deliveries of 104K, consisting of 85K Model 3s, 10K Model X SUVs and 9K Model S cars.

    I guess Monday didn't matter after all (and neither did Tuesday's open):

    Watch that 3,500 line!

    Dax already failing 12,500.


  13. All of a sudden AMTD is a bargain.  3.3% yield and under 10 pe on a $20 billion company.

     

    From the article: "The company, with a market value of about $54.7 billion, is hoping the lost fee revenue will be made up for in new assets for the firm."

     

    Hope is not a plan?


  14. Phil/TZA

    looks like that is the laggard…Jan 45/50 BCS for 1.50?

    regards


  15. AMTD I set up a Feb 20 35 put for 3$ just to keep an eye on things, while things are hot


  16. GDX. Above blurb about monthly chart looks like "cup with a handle"

    BUY 25/33 jan22 BCS  $2.94 Sell 1/2 jan20 30 call 1.00 

    Thoughts?



  17. Isn't it relaxing watching this from the sidelines?  

    Should get a bounce off 2,950 on /ES, I'd call it down from 3,000 so 50 points means 10 point weak bounce to 2,960 and strong at 2,970.

    /YM with a 400 point drop so look for 26,680 and 26,760

    The RUT is too silly to play but has to take back 1,520 (200 dma) or BIG TROUBLE! 

    Nas also tough to call but I'd go 7,850 to 7,700 and look for 7,730 and 7,760 as the bounce lines.

    I'm off to do the radio show at 2pm (on at 2:30-3:30).

    AMTD/Rperi – Wow, what a wreck!  That's why those downtrending stocks are so dangerous.  I guess it's Schwab's move on commissions that is repricing the sector.  And where are the new assets going to come from?  How do they even attract business when fees are zero?  Are they going to start paying people to trade with them?   Side effect of negative rates, I guess…

    So 1/3 of their revenues is trading commissions, another 12.4% on Investment Product Fees – also in danger and the rest is Interest they steal from their clients – heck of a business model! 

    The real problem with this is Schwab may be driving the whole sector into bankruptcy and then what happens to our money?

    Banks/Pat – Sorry, I missed that earlier – above applies though, no fees crushes their whole model.

    TZA/Pat – Not sure what you mean by a laggard.  The Russell is down more than the other indexes so it's LESS likely to head lower than they are.  The idea of playing a laggard is to pick the index that HAS NOT fallen yet and short that.   That would be the S&P or the Dow and I think the Dow can be taken down by one component, so it makes a better short. 

    VXX/Pirate – Doug uses that to adjust the hedge fund on the fly.

    It's the same logic but keep in mind that DXD is a 2x ETF, not 3x so a 10% drop in /YM to 24,000 would take DXD from $25 to $30.

    I like the DXD $24 ($2.80)/28 ($1.40) bull call spread at $1.40 on the $4 spread with a $2.60 (185%) upside which only requires a 5% drop in the Dow to cash in and you don't lose it all unless the Dow is up 5%, very close to 30,000.

    GDX/JMD – Classic Stegosaurus Pattern, downtrend won't complete until you reach his neck.

    I'm not big on the miner ETF as there's so many bad ones.  Now they are all expensive and we cashed out of GOLD, HMY, NAK and CDE before we cashed out the portfolios as they all had a great run and only NAK is now cheap enough to consider but that one is always a long shot – especially with Trump leaving office so now they may not be allowed to wipe out salmon to mine their gold.


  18. Wow, those bounces weren't even weak so ignore what I wrote at the top – that was a while ago…  Those are still the bounce lines to watch but we're already making lower lows. 




  19. I guess you one wakes up in the morning and has to decide would you rather watch the game or be a player in the game? The sidelines are safer but not where the money is made (or lost). That's the conundrum of trying to trade the markets.

    Now, if you are seriously invested in the market, it's not about market timing but about time in the market (I got that from a fund manager :) ).

    Getting out and getting back in? Sounds easy, but it's a skill where I still need to 'sharpen the saw'.

    I just see so many opportunities in the market to trade over a shorter time frame, rather than enter new long term positions (unless well hedged).

    Scalping – using above and below the 3000 level on SPX – seems pretty enticing.


  20. Phil/FAZ

    any setup on FAZ looking at the bank diving down?

    regards


  21. Winston – Good points.

    The other problem with trying to get out and then back in, is that you've created a taxable event on profitable positions.  Unless you are trading in a tax deferred account.

    Most of my assets are in dividend paying stocks.  Don't want to give up the dividends.  Prefer to use hedges and ride them up and down.

    However, a good time to take tax losses on losing speculative positions.  (I always have some of those.)


  22. AMTD – what if Schwab realizes it's all a big mistake and has to reprice themselves back into the market?  I am sitting on thinkorswim rates at TDA, so I barely pay attention to trading costs as a percent of what I actually earn.  If a majority of high net worth investors already have low trading costs, then who are they repricing for?  I do worry about all those companies going bankrupt and what would happen to our money.  

    Will this affect the way you allocate your money, since you also trade through thinkorswim?


  23. Phil,

    Would like your thoughts on IIVI (which closed the FNSR acquisition/merger) in this current environment. 

    Thanks


  24. Scalping/Winston – It's a different mentality and hard for most people to just switch gears.  I just see too much uncertainty to trade the way I like and surely not enough values to be enticed to jump right back in.  Earnings season will give us a better view of how companies are holding up – plus China and Impeachment will be a bit clearer in 30 days.  Being a hitter doesn't mean you have to swing at every pitch and, if you suck at hitting curve balls – that's why a good manager will tell you to sit on the bench against a curve ball pitcher.  If you want to put together a winning season – you have to know what games not to play as well….

    Anyway, if I see something I do like I'm calling it out – I just don't see much I like.

    FAZ/Pat – Well it's been a while since that got a pop but you could chase it.  HUGE amount of decay in FAZ over the long haul though. How about shorting FAS?  You could get more bang for your buck and then the decay goes in your favor.  The April $70 ($8)/60 ($4) bear put spread is a fun way to play it as it pays $6 (150%) if FAS falls 15% which is not much of a pullback in the financials.  

    Taxes/Albo – So if you bought AAPL for $160 and sold if for $220 this year, you'd rather hold it as it falls to $190 than pay tax on $60?  Of course a stock like AAPL, which you KNOW you just want again, would be a keeper – especially if you are close to capital gains but, on the whole, you only pay taxes on money you make and then that remaining money becomes an asset you can re-deploy.  

    You can do the math with your accountant but if I get out of AAPL at $220, pay taxes on $60 and then buy it back at $190 (and I can sell the 2022 $200 puts for $23 even now to get started) and sell it for $220 again and then pay taxes on $30 – I'm pretty sure you still come out ahead of just riding it out.

    AMTD/Rperi – I think Robin Hood is killing those guys but going straight to no fees is nuts.  They are repricing for the young traders who now thing trading fees are BS since they learn to trade without them and, if the banks can't attract new accounts from young people – they are in huge trouble over time.  

    As to allocations – I will certainly tell you guys if we think there's a problem.  Doug and I will now monitor them very closely – as well as the insurance firms that back up their accounts.  It's so stupid – there's a reason we pay them fees – to make sure our money is protected!  

    IIVI/8800 – I don't think they terribly overpaid for FNSR but the acquisition of a company as big as they are is going to be disruptive for quite a while.  I wouldn't catch the knife but, down the road – they could get interesting.

    I'm off to the radio show, will catch up later.


  25. I wonder if free trades means any loss of execution quality?  My examination of insurance from brokerages a few years back showed large accounts would be mostly unprotected.  The best at that time anyway was Interactive Brokers.


  26. AAPL up $1.25 holding up indexes otherwise it would look much worst.


  27. Phil, I see your point on the AAPL trade.  However, you don't really know that it's going i o go down, and certainly not by how much.  The problem I have is that I'm not smart enough to know when to get back in.  I'm just talking about my past experience in these situations. You are much better at this than I am.


  28. Boy, Phil can call 'em – look at /nq bouncing off 7730, repeatedly…..


  29. Downturn/PSW

    guys do you see this continuing tomorrow as well? Was thinking of getting into some hedges to offset some losses if it repeats tomorrow as well. btw hedges would be expensive since the VIX has gone up a bit.

    regards


  30. Broker Fees:  If you read through IB's announcement on their Lite service, they don't charge fees but will sell your order flow to market makers. Your orders are not routed through their SmartRouting, i.e. no guarantee of good fills?   They call out other brokers sell your order flow and charge a commission, so now they give you a choice to either not pay fees with "normal" fills or pay fees to get better fills

    https://interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=45393


  31. Broker fees – I don't see how this ends well for some people. On the other hand, I guess it applies only to shares, not futures and options so there will still be fees until they waive those as well. But true, if you don't get good execution, what the point in saving $5 to lose $20 on execution. 


  32. downturn/pat_swap – the market hates uncertainty, and dives on fairly weak negatives. I'd see what the futures do after the close, then decide. But I'm keeping hedges going for sure. I'm hoping there's a stick so I can add to my hedges.


  33. MY vxx trade10x 23.5 is up 32%. Will wait and see what happens tomm. Been buying bynd and selling calls weekly and I'm making great $. I don't wait close to expiration to get out though, but the last time I was assigned I made more bucks on the short play. Have to be agile and take the profits fast!


  34.  That was a pretty ugly finish. Looks like there will be downside follow through tomorrow.       



  35. Russell has given up almost all the early September gains.







  36. India Isn’t Letting a Single Onion Leave the Country



  37. King dollar reigns supreme as U.S. outshines the euro area


  38. Phil. LABU – with all the opioid issues this is getting pretty interesting down here….


  39. Dollar came down 0.5% so things are worse than they look.

    Execution/Tangled – I imagine, to some extent, they still have to remain competitive based on execution too.  

    AAPL/Albo – Just an example.  Look at 2008 – were you better off cashing out before the crash or riding it out to get even after 3 or 4 years?  We don't have to be smart enough to know when to get back in – things go on sale every day and, as noted in my Watch List items – the things we like for the next two years are not all the same things we liked for the last two years.  For me, I am able to do a much better job starting again from scratch than twisting myself into knots trying not to cash things out so, on the whole – I'd rather just make the money, take it off the table and then start again with a clean slate.

    Look at our 5 Trade Ideas to Make $25,000 in 5 Months.  We used $26,659 in margin and $6,565 in cash to make $33,603 by Jan 17th – that can pay your tax bill right there!  

    /NQ/Snow – It's just the 5% Rule – Just math, no TA at all:

    Failing the weak bounce line like that is not a good sign!  

    Expensive hedges/Pat – Again, why I thought it was better to cash out than be forced to defend positions I'd much rather be buying when they go back on sale.

    Fees/Mito – AMTD just announced no fees – on options too but then there's still an 0.65 per contract fee but no exercise or assignment fees.  They don't seem to differentiate a lesser service.

    Good, nimble trading Pirate.

    RUT/StJ – I wonder if they save it again at 1,450?

    LABU/Batman – An old favorite.  This is where we liked them in 2016 and they went to $100 and I agree with your premise – a lot of stocks in the sector got oversold and there's still so much potential going forward.  Not sure I want to be the knife-catcher but very worthy of putting on the Watch List and we'll play close attention to earnings and guidance from their top holdings:

    Oops, turns out they are very diverse actually.  Top 10 only 13.47% of Total Assets:

    S&P Biotechnology Select N/A 3.71%
    Genomic Health Inc GHDX 1.27%
    Invitae Corp NVTA 1.25%
    Sarepta Therapeutics Inc SRPT 1.11%
    Immunomedics Inc IMMU 1.07%
    FibroGen Inc FGEN 1.04%
    Neurocrine Biosciences Inc NBIX 1.03%
    bluebird bio Inc BLUE 1.00%
    Mirati Therapeutics Inc MRTX 1.00%
    Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc ALNY 0.99%

  40. And 3.71% of it is the S&P Biotech Index, which is itself diversified!  Wow, amazingly low concentrations – almost certainly doesn't deserve this kind of punishment.


  41. Phil / LABU –  Last time I think we started a postiion in the 20's. This may make sense ….   might be for a good conservative 10K play to first half of year….


  42. One of the things I like about LABU is they have juicy option premiums to sell!

    As we expected, indexes are continuing to the downside. Now auto sales are weak too…