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Friday Market Follies – Flirting with 3,000 into the Weekend

Here we are again. 

The S&P 500 is back to 3,000, the Dow 27,000, Nasdaq 7,950 and Russell 1,550 so all is well(ish) for the moment.  Earnings have been, so far, on track for most of our early reporting companies but notable misses from big companies like AA, GS, UNP and ERIC have kept investors slightly concerned while the economic reports have generally been trending down

We'll see the Leading Economic Indicators Report at 10am but it doesn't really matter as we have Kaplan at 9, George and Kaplan at 10, Kashkari at 10:30, Clarida at 11:30 and Kaplan again at 5pm so whatever message Kaplan is selling is one the Fed is looking to make sure is repeated over and over again.  

I'm not sure what they are doing with Kaplan as his 9am is supposedly in Washington, DC while his 10am is scheduled for Denver but he's an economist, not a physicist – so he probably doesn't know that's not physically possible…  On Wednesday, Kaplan said the Fed was "actively debating issuing a digital currency" so BitCoin fans may want to pay attention to his speeches as well.  

Kaplan also "admitted" what I've maintained for years – that the Fed's ZIRP policy is a reaction to the US Government's $23 TRILLION in debt because each 1% of interest paid on bonds now translates to $230Bn out of the Government's budget.  Kaplan also noted: “People around the world are working real hard to try to find alternatives to dollars and dollar infrastructure because the more they’re invested in that, the more susceptible they are to sanctions, tariffs and what’s going on right now.”   

ImageIn other words, Trump's erratic behavior is now threatening the Dollar's role as the World's reserve currency – Putin couldn't have done more damage to our country if he had bombed us than Trump has done – and this mess can't be cleaned up easily.  Losing our status as the World's reserve currency could put us just a step or two away from bankruptcy – just like companies with too much debt that get downgraded are thrown into chaos.

Meanwhile, China's GDP dipped to 6% and that's the official number – it's probably really below 5%.  That sent the Shanghai Composite 1.25% lower and that will be a drag on Global Markets into the weekend and again, I'm wondering what catalyst we now have to push us over the 3,000 line on the S&P and I'd still rather go short here than go long (/ES).

All the bullish boxes have been checked now – Earnings Beats, Brexit Deal, China Deal, Rate Cuts, Iran calmed down, Venezuela calmed down (by Putin), Impeachment already boring….  All these things have gone "right" in the past couple of weeks yet still we struggle to get over 3,000 on /ES.  Why?  Because 3,000 is still overvalued and we were ignoring the things that are now fixed anyway.  If any of them subsequently go wrong – THEN we have trouble!

Have a great weekend, 

- Phil


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  1. Looks like BoJo is just as good a negotiator as Trump. People digging into the that Bexit deal have trouble seeing big differences with what May negotiated a while back. And it seems that the EU's message was simply, OK, we'll give you that little crumb, you can claim victory but simply leave now…

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/18/world/europe/brexit-european-union-britain.html

    The Europeans got the better of the accord, most analysts agree, and remain eager to avoid a no-deal Brexit that would damage both parties. But what is evident now is that the European Union wants Britain to leave already, so it can move on to more pressing issues, from migration and enlargement to the contentious post-Brexit seven-year budget.



  2. We are so screwed:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/15/im-standing-here-in-the-middle-of-climate-change-how-usda-fails-farmers-043615

    But the Agriculture Department is doing little to help farmers adapt to what experts predict is the new norm: increasingly extreme weather across much of the U.S. The department, which has a hand in just about every aspect of the industry, from doling out loans to subsidizing crop insurance, spends just 0.3 percent of its $144 billion budget helping farmers adapt to climate change, whether it’s identifying the unique risks each region faces or helping producers rethink their practices so they’re better able to withstand extreme rain and periods of drought.

    Even these limited efforts, however, have been severely hampered by the Trump administration’s hostility to even discussing climate change, according to interviews with dozens of current and former officials, farmers and scientists.


  3. Good Morning




  4. Saudi Aramco delays planned launch of long-awaited IPO



  5. any idea where to hear or see what Kaplan is saying I cant seam to find it

    thanks


  6. Good Morning!


  7. Adam Silver, the commissioner of NBA, really shows the rest of corporate America of what it looks like when an American Business shows it's American Values.

     

    Good on You, Adam!  :)  


  8. M and LB both down graded today and HBI followed them down  


  9. Good morning! 

    Just had a CC with Thailand – things are going very well for Hemp Boca, who are down to the last 2 in consideration to supply Thai NHS with CBD – very exciting.

    Brexit/StJ – I don't know if I blame Johnson, he only recently took over but yes, just as full of crap as Trump after making a ton of concessions in order to declare "victory".  

    Coding/StJ – Very cool stuff.

    Kaplan/Tommy – I just put "Kaplan Fed" into twitter:

    Fed's Kaplan: The Most Recent Catalyst For The Slowdown In Global Growth Is Tensions Related To Trade And Uncertainty

    - Increasing use of tariffs and trade weapons could erode world reserve status of USD

    - Balance sheets of US households are in good shape

    KAPLAN SAYS DOES NOT SEE FED IN "FULL-FLEDGED RATE CUTTING CYCLE," ADJUSTMENTS APPROPRIATE IN A "MORE LIMITED, RESTRAINED, WAY"

    WASHINGTON, Oct 18 (Reuters) – The Fed is watching for signs a global trade slowdown is having broader impacts in the US beyond manufacturing and investment, but is not yet heading into a "full-fledged rate cutting cycle,"

    Fed's Kaplan: US not immune to slowdown in the rest of the world fxrank.net/forex-analysis

    Fed's Kaplan: I am a little more leery that drops in Fed funds rate will impact inflation as it used to given structural changes in how inflation is generated

    So the big deal is Kaplan doesn't see a lot of cutting ahead and he's a voting member next year.

    Leading indicators surprise with downside in September

    • September Leading Indicators-0.1% at 111.9 vs. +0.2% consensus, -0.2% prior (revised).
    • Coincident Economic Index flat to 106.4.
    • Lagging Economic Index +0.1% at 108.3.

    Credit Suisse sees tough road for retail

    • Credit Suisse says recent channel checks and commentary from Levi Strauss (NYSE:LEVI) and Hugo Boss (OTCPK:BOSSY) suggest U.S. retail industry trends remained sluggish in Q3.
    • "Our expectation is that pressured trends are likely to continue into fall/holiday—with macro pressures weighing on already-weak recent trends (shorter holiday shopping calendar, ongoing tariff/tourism uncertainty, and tough weather compares lapping cold weather that extended through much of 4Q18). Importantly, looking to 2020, we think Street estimates are still too high. (Consensus ests currently assume industry SSS, GM & EBIT margin trends will ALL accelerate in 2020 vs. current run-rates… we don’t see any clear drivers to support such an acceleration)."
    • The firm says it's lowering EPS estimates by –3% on average for 2019 and by –5.5% for 2020 for U.S. department stores. The profit pressure in seen hitting include Macy's (M -4.7%), Nordstrom (JWN -1.9%), Kohl's (KSS -0.3%) and J.C. Penney J(JCP -1%) – as well as brands with significant exposure to the department store channel. That list includes Ralph Lauren (RL -1.4%), PVH (PVH -0.9%) and Hanesbrands (HBI -3.9%).
    • Challenged mall-based retailers Gaps (GPS -6.2%) and L Brands (LB -9.1%) are also hit with downgrades by CS to Underperform from Neutral.
    • It's not all bad news in retail, however. Credit Suisse still likes VF Corp (VFC +0.1%), Ross Stores (ROST +0.7%), Burlington Stores (BURL -0.1%) and Nike (NKE -0.4%) amid the volatile macro environment into 2020.

    Retail/Bert – Sentiment getting sour again (see above).


  10. Comment content omitted because it is too long.


  11. Fed's George keeps her hawkish stance

    • Kansas City Fed President Esther George, who voted against the last two Fed rate cuts, isn't changing her stance.
    • "My own outlook for the economy does not call for a monetary policy response," she said at a speech in Denver today.
    • Translation: No monetary response means keep rates where they are.
    • Even with the recent weakness in manufacturing and business investment, monetary policy may not be the appropriate tool to offset the risks faced by businesses "when weighted against the costs that could be associated with such action," she added.
    • But she'll keep an eye on risks. "Should downside risks spill over into the broader economy in a way that fundamentally affects the consumer and shifts the overall outlook, a monetary policy response may be required," she concluded.
    • Markets have priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut for the FOMC meeting later this month; the CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability of a rate cut at 89%, up from 67% a week ago.
    • 10-year Treasury yield is down a basis point at 1.743%.
    • iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT +0.2%); ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT -0.5%).

     

    Transocean adds three new rig contracts, $75M to backlog

    • Transocean (RIG +0.4%) secured three new drilling contracts during Q3, adding ~$75M in contract backlog, according to its latest quarterly fleet status report.
    • The backlog result is below recent status reports, in which RIG reported $158M in new work during Q2 and $373M in Q1; total backlog is now $10.8B, compared with $11.4B disclosed in the July report.
    • The longest of the deals is for the Paul B. Loyd Jr. semi-submersible drilling rig for a 255-day contract with Hurricane Energy in the U.K. North Sea.
    • The contract is split into two terms, with a $160K dayrate during February-April 2020 rising to $205K in the February-September 2020 period; the rig's current contract with BP in the U.K. expires this month.

    GM on the razor's edge

    • General Motors (GM +0.4%) is on a slippery slope as it look to close the UAW deal and appease investors looking for profitability, notes The Wall Street Journal's Stephen Wilmot.
    • "Without knowing what wage inflation the automaker factored into its planning, though, investors have no sure way of modeling the deal’s impact on future profits. These will depend in part on the $4.5 billion cost-savings target GM announced in November. Importantly, the deal still allows the company to close three of the four plants it moved to 'unallocate' at that time, and the fourth plant will get an electric pickup truck that it needed to build anyway," observes Wilmot.
    • With Detroit peers Fiat Chrysler and Ford competing with GM in the same model categories and facing new labor contracts of their own, higher pricing could help GM along. The catch, reminds Wilmot, is if industry sales tail off and pricing heads in reverse.
    • GM reports earnings on October 29 in a report that could give investors a sense of what Mary Barra and gang expect for 2020.

    Lawmakers want answers from Uber, Lyft

    • Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chairman Peter DeFazio and Highways and Transit Subcommittee Chair Eleanor Holmes Norton sent letters to the heads of Uber (UBER -1.5%) and Lyft (LYFT -0.9%) after the companies declined to send representatives to a hearing on Wednesday.
    • The House Democrats want answers to questions about regulations, passenger safety, and driver background checks by November 1.
    • Source: Bloomberg.

    Tesla bull ratchets down expectations

    • Piper Jaffray reels in its price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) a bit just ahead of the EV automaker's earnings report next week.
    • The firm keeps an Overweight rating on Tesla, while taking the PT to $372 from $386 to account for a "toning down" of optimism from investors and new lowered EPS estimates for 2019-2020.
    • Piper's PT on Tesla is still almost $100 above the sell-side consensus PT of $266.03.
    • Shares of Tesla are down 0.28% premarket to $261.24.

    Micron -1.4% after weak DRAM pricing data

    • Memory market research firm inSpectrum Tech's weekly report shows DRAM chip spot prices falling 2% in the latest week, larger than the 1.5% average decline over the previous six weeks.
    • Last week's report showed a 0.8% decline.
    • Micron (NASDAQ:MU) shares are down 1.4% pre-market after the report.

    Caterpillar cut at Morgan Stanley on weakness in two biggest segments

    • Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT-1.8% pre-market after Morgan Stanley downgraded shares to Equal Weight from Overweight with a $145 price target, trimmed from $150, citing increasing downside risks to the company's Construction and Energy and Transportation segments.
    • Stanley analyst Courtney Yakavonis says CAT's U.S. Construction Equipment market peaked in 2019 and that its Energy and Transportation markets will fail to re-accelerate in 2020, prompting her to forecast negative growth in the company's two largest business segments in 2020.
    • CAT's Resources segment and share repurchases continue to support earnings but are unable to fully offset the other headwinds, Yakavonis says, as her updated CAT estimates now call for a mild Y/Y earnings decline in 2020.

    J&J recalls lot of Baby Powder on trace levels of asbestos

    • Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) initiates a voluntary recall of a single lot of its Baby Powder after an FDA test showed sub-trace levels of chrysotile asbestos (less than or equal to 0.00002%) in samples from a single bottle purchased from an online retailer.
    • The company says it has launched a "rigorous" investigation into the matter and is working with the agency to determine the integrity of the sample and the validity of the test results.
    • Shares down 2% premarket on light volume.

    Starbucks faces water issue in Vietnam

    • Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) temporarily closes seven stores in Hanoi due to water contamination, according to VNExpress.
    • The coffee chain is reportedly struggling to get clean water at the locations.
    • Starbucks is the the third largest coffee seller in Vietnam per the latest data, but only operaties about 50 stores.
    • While shares of SBUX nearly hit $100 in July, they have fallen back to $86.29 but are still up 34% YTD.

    Dry bulk shipping rates dip again

    • The Baltic Dry Index fell back for the sixth day in a row with a 0.32% drop to 1,855.
    • Panamax rates were down 1.15% to $14,751, while Capesize rates were essentially flat at $25,117.
    • Of interest broadly to the shipping sector today, China reported Q3 GDP growth of 6.0% vs. 6.2% in Q2 and 6.1% consensus expectation.

    Schlumberger swings to large loss but adjusted earnings top consensus

    • Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB+1.1% pre-market after Q3 adjusted earnings topped Wall Street expectations, as results continue to be underpinned by international investment levels while growth in North America land operations remains sluggish as customers maintained capital discipline, reducing drilling and fracking activity.
    • SLB's unadjusted net loss was $11.38B, or $8.22/share, which included a $12.7B charge related to goodwill, intangible assets and fixed assets; the company reported a net profit of $644M, or $0.46/share, in the year-ago quarter.
    • New CEO Olivier Le Peuch had warned investors of a "significant" charge when he delivered his first public remarks early last month.
    • Q3 revenue edged 0.5% higher Y/Y to $8.54B, as an 11% drop in North America revenue to $2.85B was offset by 8% growth in international revenue to $5.63B, though both segments rose 2%-3% Q/Q.
    • "Market uncertainty… is weighing on future oil demand outlook in a climate where trade concerns are seen as challenging global economic growth," the company warns.
    • SLB expects FY 2019 capex of $1.6B-$1.7B vs. $2.2B spent in 2018.

    American Express Q3 reflects strong consumer spending

    • American Express (NYSE:AXPgains 2.0% in premarket trading after Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.08 beats the consensus estimate of $2.02 driven by strong growth in its consumer segment.
    • Increased from $1.88 in the year-ago quarter.
    • Reaffirms 2019 adjusted EPS guidance of $7.85-$8.35; consensus estimate $8.10.
    • Q3 net interest income of $2.20B improves from $2.07B in Q2 and $1.96B in Q3 2018.
    • Q3 net interest yield on average card member loans of 11.1% increased from 10.8% in Q2 and the year-ago quarter.
    • Q3 Global Consumer Services Group net income of $857M, up 10% Y/Y; revenue net of interest expense was $6.0B, up 11%, primarily on higher net interest income, card member spending, and card fees.
    • Q3 Global Commercial Services net income of $629M, up 4% Y/Y; revenue net of interest expense rose 7% Y/Y to $3.4B, reflecting higher card member spending.
    • Q3 Global Merchant and Network Services net income of $600M, up 3% Y/Y; revenue net of interest expense increased 5% to $1.7B, primarily reflecting increased card member spending.
    • Conference call at 8:30 AM.
    • Previously: American Express EPS beats by $0.06, beats on revenue (Oct. 18)

    Cronos Group is "New King in the North" – Stifel

    • via Notable Calls
    • C$2B of cash in the bank and the resources of major backer Altria (NYSE:MO) give Cronos (NASDAQ:CRON) unconstrained ability to invest in the $200B global cannabis opportunity, says the team at Stifel, upgrading CRON to Buy. The title of the note: "Crowning a New King in the North."
    • Shares are up 2.5% premarket

    State Street EPS beats by $0.11, beats on revenue

    • State Street (NYSE:STT): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.51 beats by $0.11; GAAP EPS of $1.42 beats by $0.06.
    • Revenue of $2.9B (-3.0% Y/Y) beats by $40M.
    • Shares +2.2% PM.
    • Press Release

    Comparable sales shine at Coca-Cola

    • Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) trades higher after reporting Q3 organic sales growth of +5% vs. +4.1% consensus. The solid quarter included 3% organic sales growth in North America and Asia Pacific. as well as a 4% gain for the EMEA region. Strong comps were turned in by the Latin America (+12), Global Ventures (+14%) and Bottling (+9%) segments.
    • EPS matched consensus estimates despite a 6 bp F/X headwind. Comparable operating margin fell to 28.1% during the quarter from 30.7% a year ago.
    • The beverage giant reaffirmed full-year guidance for organic revenue up at least 5% and EPS growth of -1% to +1%. Capital expenditures of $2.2B expected vs. $2.4B prior guidance and $2.24B consensus.
    • Shares of Coca-Cola are up 1.49% premarket to $54.59.
    • Previously: Coca-Cola EPS in-line, beats on revenue (Oct. 18)

  12. Chipotle shakes off a bear rating

    • Bank of America Merrill Lynch shifts to a Neutral position on Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) after having the restaurant stock slotted at Underperform.
    • "While we still struggle with the valuation upside, our expectations that CMG will deliver near-term EPS upside to consensus makes a correction in the multiple unlikely, driving our decision to move to Neutral," reasons the firm.
    • BAML doesn't expect a return to peak margins for Chipotle, but thinks strong comparable sales and EPS growth should support valuation.
    • BAML moves to a price objective of $850 from $590 (50X the 2020 EPS estimate).
    • Shares of Chipotle are up 1.20% premarket to $839.00.

    Renault -12% after profit warning

    • Shares of Renault (OTC:RNSDF) are down sharply in Paris after yesterday's post-close earnings warning from the automaker rattled investors.
    • Renault execs pointed to difficulties in Argentina and Turkey as contributing factors in the reduced organic sales outlook.
    • "Needless to say that this profit warning comes at a time of major instability at Renault and its partner Nissan. Investor worries will more likely intensify," notes Evercore on the development.
    • Renault is down 12.17% in Paris trading at last check.
    • Previously: Renault lowers full-year outlook (Oct. 17)

    Oil traders weigh supply and demand factors

    • Oil prices continue to look for direction after some cooling off of Middle East tension and a tentative Brexit deal offset concerns over cooling growth in China and a fifth straight weekly rise in U.S. crude supplies.
    • Looking ahead, ANZ Research sees downward pressure on prices. "Concerns about softer growth in the demand for oil and doubts about OPEC's ability to rebalance the market on the current production cut rate will be key drags on prices in the near term," noted the firm.
    • In today's early action, WTI crude oil futures +0.1% to $54.00/bbl and Brent crude -0.2% to $59.81/bbl.

    China growth slowest in at least 26 years

    • China's economic growth hit 6% in Q3, the slowest growth in at least 26 years, amid broad declines that seemed to presage the need for more intervention to arrest the declines.
    • That's down from 6.2% growth in Q2 and a tax-cut-aided 6.4% in Q1. Analysts were generally expecting at least 6.1% for Q3.
    • The end of the quarter saw some recovery in industrial production and retail sales, according to China's statistics bureau, but investment in fixed assets was on the decline and investment in agriculture, manufacturing and industrial sectors fell off in September.
    • The growth is the lowest since the current measure of GDP was adopted in 1992, just three years after the Tiananmen Square crackdown significantly hurt investment.
    • "We expect monetary policy to be loosened before long in response, but it will take time for this to put a floor beneath economic growth," says Capital Economics' Julian Evans-Pritchard.

    European tariffs to be applied today

    • The U.S. is slapping tariffs on $7.5B worth of European goods today. Aircraft produced in the European Union will be slapped with 10% tariffs, while a group of consumer products that includes wine, whiskies and cheese will be slapped with 25% tariffs.
    • Earlier this week, the World Trade Organization cleared Washington to take action after concluding that Airbus received billions of dollars in illegal subsidies over the years.

    Kinder Morgan's Permian pipeline delay boosts nat gas 2021-21 winter futures

    • U.S. natural gas futures for winter 2020-21 jumped today after Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) delayed the projected in-service date for its Permian Highway gas pipeline to early 2021, Reuters reports.
    • The market had expected Permian Highway to enter service during H2 2020, providing drillers with needed takeaway capacity from the Permian Basin ahead of next winter's seasonal increase in heating demand.
    • Prices for winter gas futures rose ~$0.03 to $2.73/MMBtu in January 2021 and $2.69/MMBtu in February 2021, compared with just a $0.014 move for the November 2019 front-month contract.
    • "The Permian is expected to be the engine of natural gas production growth once again next year due to its ability to produce regardless of gas prices," says Gelber & Associates analyst Daniel Myers, but "this may be in jeopardy without additional takeaway capacity from Permian Highway in 2020."

    Chevron says end of Venezuela waiver would only help Russia

    • Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is arguing against the Trump administration's plans to allow the expiration of its Venezuela sanctions waiver, S&P Global Platts reports, saying such a move could ultimately increase the country's oil production, providing a boost to both the Maduro regime and Russia's standing in the global market.
    • Some analysts say Venezuela's oil output, already at a historically low 600K bbl/day, could plunge below 300K bbl/day if the waiver is allowed to expire on Oct. 25, but CVX and other analysts believe any decline would be short-lived if Rosneft (OTCPK:RNFTF), or another Russian or Chinese firm, takes control of CVX's Venezuelan assets.
    • Of the 25 drilling rigs still operating in the country, 20 are supplied by Venezuela's PDVSA and five by U.S. companies for CVX's joint ventures, but the projects are operated by PDVSA and not CVX, which would minimize any production impact from CVX's departure, says David Voght of the IPD Latin America energy consultancy.
    • "If Chevron is forced to leave Venezuela, non-U.S. companies will fill the void and oil production will continue," a company spokesperson said this week.
    • CVX has said it stands to lose ~$2.5B if the waiver expires and it is forced to leave Venezuela.

    Videogame sales mark broad drop for September

    • Videogame sales showed broad declines again in September, with software and accessories lower along with the now-monthly year-over-year drop in hardware.
    • Sales fell 8% overall to $1.28B, according to NPD Group. As they did in August, hardware sales fell 22% (this time to $240M), but they were joined by declines in software (down 4%, to $732M) and accessories and game cards (down 7%, to $306M).
    • Year-to-date, videogame spending is off 6% to $8.3B, driven by the hardware fall-off ahead of next year's console refresh cycle. Nintendo Switch (OTCPK:NTDOY) is the only platform with sales gains in September and year-to-date.
    • In software, results were hurt by a tough comp with last September's release of Marvel's Spider-Man on PS4, analyst Mat Piscatella notes.
    • Take-Two (NASDAQ:TTWO) ruled the top of the dollar-sales game chart. The best-selling game for September (and now for all of 2019) is NBA 2K20 (TTWO), which registered the best launch month ever for a sports game (beating its predecessor NBA 2K19). It was followed by Borderlands 3 (TTWO), which set a franchise record for launch month.

    Schwab to enable fractional share trading

    • Charles Schwab Corp. (NYSE:SCHW) will enable investors to buy and sell fractions of shares, founder and chairman Charles R. Schwab says. The move, a first for a major incumbent brokerage, is part of an effort to attract younger clients.
    • Earlier this month, Schwab eliminated trading commissions, setting off a war among brokerages that led to TD Ameritrade (NASDAQ:AMTDdropping commissions later on the same day. Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ:IBKReliminated commissions a few days prior for members of its "Lite" program. Subsequently, E*Trade (NASDAQ:ETFC), TradeStation, and Fidelity all moved to zero commission trading. It will be interesting to watch whether they follow suit on fractional trading.
    • Fractional share trading allows investors diversify their investment portfolios by spreading relatively small pots of money over a broader range of stocks.
    • Markets punished SCHW and other brokers for the move, concerned about the impact of zero commissions on their bottom lines. But investor Nicholas Ward, who publishes on Seeking Alpha and runs the Dividend Growth Club investor service, says Scwhab's valuation is too attractive to ignore.
    • SCHW shares rose 1.1% today to $39.45, having fallen below $36 in early October.

    Final 737 MAX simulator tests seen beginning early next month – CNN

    • A select group of U.S. and international pilots are expected to participate as soon as early November in the final round of simulator testing of Boeing's (NYSE:BA) new flight control system software for the 737 MAX, CNN reports.
    • The tests will be conducted in a Boeing simulator in Seattle with Federal Aviation Administration regulators observing, where pilots will experience scenarios and flight control failures that mirror the difficulties pilots experienced in the two deadly 737 MAX crashes that killed a combined 346 people.
    • Separately, Reuters reports lawyers representing families of passengers killed in the MAX crash in Ethiopia are set to issue subpoenas to Southwest Airlines and American Airlines.
    • The lawyers reportedly want to know what Boeing promised potential airline customers about flight crew training and the MAX certification process, as well as its communications with the two airlines related to October's Lion Air crash in Indonesia and the Ethiopian Airlines crash in March.

  13. SPWR – Down to the 200 dMA.  Sold a few March 9  puts for $1.56.


  14. PLX   check this out. I lost money on this one a few years ago, but perhaps we were just way too early. 


  15. Things are deteriorating.  It is nice to be in CASH!!!

    SPWR/Albo – There's a bargain I'll want to pick up.

    PLX/Stock – Not my kind of thing.

    NFLX gave back all the gains and more.  Might end up rolling the $250 puts!


  16. PLX was a a Pharm pick when it was $5 thereabouts.  He liked the science.  Impressive, though I'm not recommending to buy. 

    12-Months On-treatment Data Indicate Significant Improvement in Kidney Function in Patients Switched from agalsidase alfa (Replagal®) to pegunigalsidase alfa (PRX-102)

    100% of the "progressing" patients and 66.7% in the "fast progressing" patients achieved the proposed therapeutic goals after switching to pegunigalsidase alfa

    The switch to pegunigalsidase alfa was well tolerated


  17. I had a dream last night that Halloween this year was "Black Thursday" (markets down 20%!!). I bought a couple Nov 1 puts on SPY just in case, for some reason, that Miss Cleo has given all of her clairvoyance powers to me…


  18. SIG – Back to a 10% yield.  Bought some and sold some Jan 14 puts.


  19. PLX – haha still got that one sitting in my portfolio too, think i got in way back when Pharm recommended as well (to a very small position), was never worth ti to sell so just left it in case it ever came back by miracle 


  20. Mexican president defends retreat in face of cartel gunmen




  21. Looks like we stopped going down.

    I'm out of here – gotta get across town for a meeting – squeezing a lot in on this trip but back at the command center on Monday.  

    Have a great weekend, 

    - Phil


  22. The Chinese Threat to American Speech









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