Archive for 2019

The Decline & Fall Of Britain’s Labour Party

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Brexit has turned British politics upside down, with the consistent failure of the Conservative and Labour parties to deliver or effectively oppose the country’s exit from the EU fuelling a voter exodus, exemplified today with the latest voting intention poll putting Corbyn’s party in fourth place for the first time in its history.

Statista’s Martin Armstrong details that, as surveys by YouGov show, since the last election, Labour have managed to squander a relative wealth of positive public opinion, utterly failing to capitalise on the Tories being weak and wounded.

In the first ‘Favourability Tracker’ after the 2017 vote, a net 7 percent of Brits had a positive opinion of the party, compared to -21 percent for the Conservatives. In July 2019, this figure now sits at -35 percent for the Conservatives, but it is Labour that have fallen most spectacularly, now at -36 percent – a brutal drop of 42 percentage points.

Infographic: The fall of the Labour Party | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

In place of the two almost-slain giants have emerged a resurgent Liberal Democrats and the new Nigel Farage platform – the Brexit Party. The former enjoying the best net rating of -12 percent, and the latter at the same level the Conservatives were at just after their last (narrow) election win.





Starbucks Forced To Apologize After Post-Cop-Ban #DumpStarbucks Campaign Goes Viral

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Starbucks was forced to apologize on its website after an incident in a Tempe, Arizona, where a barista asked six police officers to leave the location, went viral. Additionally, the company has deployed its EVP/President of U.S. Retail to Tempe Sunday night after speaking to the city's police chief. 

In a statement addressed to "Chief Moir and the entire Tempe Police Department," Starbucks apologizes for the July 4th incident, calling it "completely unacceptable":

Thank you, Chief Moir, for the conversation today.  On behalf of Starbucks, I want to sincerely apologize to you all for the experience that six of your officers had in our store on July 4.

When those officers entered the store and a customer raised a concern over their presence, they should have been welcomed and treated with dignity and the utmost respect by our partners (employees). Instead, they were made to feel unwelcome and disrespected, which is completely unacceptable.

At Starbucks, we have deep appreciation for your department and the officers who serve the Tempe community. Our partners rely on your service and welcome your presence, which keeps our stores and the community a safe and welcoming place.

The apology continues, with Starbucks EVP Rossann William stating: 

Our strong relationship with the Tempe Police Department has provided us the opportunity to host several “Coffee with a Cop” events in area stores, which bring residents and police together to discuss relevant issues and find common ground. We look forward to continuing to strengthen our relationship with you, and we agree that the experience of your officers requires an important dialogue – one that we are committed to being part of.

What occurred in our store on July 4 is never the experience your officers or any customer should have, and at Starbucks, we are already taking the necessary steps to ensure this doesn’t happen again in the future.

I will be in Tempe this evening and welcome the opportunity to meet with any of you in person to address concerns or questions.

As we reported yesterday, a barista asked six police officers to leave the store –…
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Hedge Fund CIO: “Your Investment Style Will Blow Up Someday… Will You Fold Or Double Down?”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

“Whatever investment style you adopt will blow up someday,” said the CIO.

“When that day comes, will you fold or double down?” he continued. We were discussing systematic investing. I see its future dominance and am building my firm accordingly.

“If you’ve surrendered control to a machine, how will you make that decision?” he asked. Before I could answer, he supplied his own. “I’d rather practice making decisions along the way so that I’ll either avoid the blow up or at least understand my strategy in the crisis.”

That’s a credible position to take on the matter; for years I took it myself. But time changes most things, ourselves in particular. Day by day, month by month, we’re different people. Humble, hubristic, stubborn, objective, greedy, fearful, certain, confused, euphoric, depressed, and every imaginable combination thereof.

The two greatest advantages of developing decision-making algorithms are that they allow us to consistently be our finest selves, and they can apply our process across more markets than a single human ever could. But the difficulty of distilling profound complexity into a set of robust rules leads many practitioners to cut corners – which takes the form of choosing rules that worked in the recent past for seemingly arbitrary reasons, and building algorithms without sensible risk-mitigation to avoid its corresponding costs.

Such strategies put their investors at risk of catastrophic loss in exchange for a pile of pennies, and/or tend to make money in every time period except for the future. But such pitfalls are not machine error, they reflect human weakness, and are thus common to both poorly designed discretionary and systematic strategies.

Because ultimately, every conceivable form of successful money management requires the experience to identify rules that tend to make money over time, and the introspection necessary to come to know our finest selves.





Lira Crashes After Erdogan Unexpectedly Fires Turkey’s Central Bank Governor

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Just as glimmers of hope were starting to emerge that Turkey may finally crawl its way out of the deep hole it dug for itself last summer… and Erdogan happens.

The Turkish Lira has opened in early trading, crashing over 16 handles…

So what will Erdogan do to support the Lira this time? Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg's Mideast economist pointed out:

“If Erdogan’s aim was to get lower interest rates, then the decision to replace the governor could backfire. Now there’s an additional credibility constraint, with financial markets certain to scrutinize the motivation and magnitude of any easing.”

* * *

As we detailed yesterday, the world sure can be an ironic place: just one week after the Bank of International Settlements highlighted Turkey as the case study of all the bad things and political costs resulting from political meddling and intervention in a central bank's affairs, when BIS General Manager Agustin Carstens said  "you see the government undermining the autonomy of the central bank and at the same time you see the negative consequences,” adding that looking at Turkey, other countries can "see what happens when the government tinkers with the autonomy", Turkey's president Erdogan had just one message: "hold my bear."

That's right: two weeks after Erdogan appeared to finally throw in the towel on aggressively authoritarian practices when he conceded the loss of the Istanbul election revote to his ruling party's primary challenger  in a surprisingly subdued response, the "executive president" reminded everyone just why Turkey remains a consummate economic basket case, when on Saturday morning, Erdogan unexpectedly fired Murat Cetinkaya as central bank governor, after he reportedly refused an informal request to resign, according to Bloomberg which also correctly notes that the decision to terminate the centrist central banker risks a furious market backlash just as foreign money started returning to Turkey, which was expected to start interest-rate cuts in the immediate future.

Murat Cetinkaya

 

To single-handedly…
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American Pride: Another Divide

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Constantin Gurdgiev via True Economics blog,

A great nation, divided and wanting for change as it may be… But just how divided are Americans? Bloomberg chart on a recent Gallup Poll data is quite telling:

The first thing to note is the demographic divide by age. Less than 50 percent of 18-29 year olds in the survey are 'extremely' or 'very' proud of being American. Less than 2/3rds of those of age 30-49 do as well. For older generations, the same number is 80 percent and higher.

The second is the partisan divide by party affiliation: only 50 percent of those identifying with the Democratic Party are 'extremely' or 'very' proud, against ca 95 percent of the Republicans. The Independents clock in under 65 percent.

Overall, Liberals, Democrats and the young are the flash points of relative disenchantment with the American identity, although the proportions of those who do not identify themselves as proud whatsoever and those identifying as proud 'only a little' is below 1/3rd for all three categories.

The numbers suggest less of a disillusionment problem than the weakening of the sentiment.

Which does offer a glimpse of hope: repairing American's perceptions of their identity is not an insurmountable task.

The good news, American people do appear to be longing for change and hope. The tougher-to-deal-with news is that we seem to lack leadership candidates to take us there.





Ray Dalio – John Mauldin Discussion, Part 5

 

Embed from Getty Images

 

Ray Dalio – John Mauldin Discussion, Part 5

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

“The belief that wealth subsists not in ideas, attitudes, moral codes, and mental disciplines but in identifiable and static things that can be seized and redistributed is the materialist superstition. It stultified the works of Marx and other prophets of violence and envy. It frustrates every socialist revolutionary who imagines that by seizing the so-called means of production he can capture the crucial capital of an economy. It is the undoing of nearly every conglomerateur who believes he can safely enter new industries by buying rather than by learning them. It confounds every bureaucrat who imagines he can buy the fruits of research and development.

The cost of capturing technology is mastery of the knowledge embodied in the underlying science. The means of entrepreneurs’ production are not land, labor, or capital but minds and hearts.”

“Whatever the inequality of incomes, it is dwarfed by the inequality of contributions to human advancement. As the science fiction writer Robert Heinlein wrote, ‘Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances that permit this norm to be exceeded—here and there, now and then—are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of society, the people slip back into abject poverty. This is known as bad luck.’

President Obama unconsciously confirmed Heinlein’s sardonic view of human nature in a campaign speech in Iowa: ‘We had reversed the recession, avoided depression, got the economy moving again, but over the last six months we’ve had a run of bad luck.’ All progress comes from the creative minority. Even government-financed research and development, outside the results-oriented military, is mostly wasted. Only the contributions of mind, will, and morality are enduring. The most important question for the future of America is how we treat our entrepreneurs. If our government continues to smear, harass, overtax, and oppressively regulate them, we will be dismayed by how swiftly the engines of American prosperity deteriorate. We will be amazed at how


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Apple’s India iPhone Sales Crash 42%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

According to The Economic Times, Apple’s continuing slowdown in India has translated into a 42% decline in iPhone shipments in 1Q19 from a year before. During the first quarter, Apple shipped 220,000 iPhones in India, followed by an improvement in April thanks to carrier discounts. In May and June, however, iPhone sales plunged again.

Neil Shah, research director at Hong Kong-based Counterpoint Technology Market Research, said the full-year estimate for iPhone shipments in India is 1.5 million to 1.6 million, a 10-17% drop from 2018 and as much as 53% collapse from the peak shipment of 3.2 million in 2017.

Apple could start manufacturing its iPhones in India through Foxconn, with an initial monthly capacity of 250,000. About 75% of the iPhones may be exported as Apple figures out how to rework its supply chains outside of China.

“Apple had a disappointing run in 2018 and the outlook for 2019 looks weaker, with shipments having fallen further compared to last year, with the exception of April, thanks to price correction that month,” said Shah.

The Times said Apple is preparing to transform India into a major production hub than a top producing market, and intends to scale up local manufacturing amid US-China trade tensions.

Apple has instructed its key suppliers — Foxconn, Pegatron, and Wistron to move 15-30% of their production facilities outside of China to avoid US tariffs.

“Companies like Apple already have some of their global partner manufacturers in India and with the right environment and possibly incentives, can create a large-scale global hub for making in India and a deep ecosystem for component manufacturers,” said Pankaj Mohindroo, chairman of the Indian Cellular and Electronics Association.

“We are sitting on an opportunity which needs to be lapped up without losing a minute, else we run the risk of these investments going to other countries like Vietnam."

Foxconn and Wistron have already constructed factories in India and industry experts told The Times that manufacturing volumes are increasing.

“Commercial production of iPhone XR and the models above that should begin by the


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China And Taiwan Are “One Family,” Says Chinese Official, Further Complicating Things For The US 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je, touted as a candidate in Taiwan's 2020 presidential election, on Friday met with Liu Jieyi, director of China's Taiwan Affairs Office, who both agreed on enhancing cross-strait relations, something that could irritate the Trump administration.

Jieyi said both sides of the Taiwan Strait are "one family" but avoided saying phrases like "one country, two systems" and "peaceful reunification" during the closed-door meeting, reported Focus Taiwan.

Wen-je, who was in Shanghai for the Taipei-Shanghai Twin-City forum, met with Jieyi at a guest house Friday night.

"The trend is unstoppable," Jieyi said, adding that China is committed to improving cross-strait relations following the guidance of Chinse President Xi Jinping.

Even if the meeting was closed-door, the conference is considered a significant gravitational shift, one where Taiwan could lean more towards China than the US.

During a press conference, Jieyi shared the achievements between Shanghai and Taipei in the past decade and his vision of a friendly environment in Taiwan Strait.

Jieyi said he had read Wen-je's book titled "Taipei — A Proud City with Progressive Values" and said the mayor's pursuit of serving his constituents and bringing innovation in the city was similar with China's mission to lift millions out of poverty through technological advances.

He also said, "people from both sides of the Taiwan Strait are one family and should help each other," referring to travel and trade statistics.

While China suspended official contacts with Taiwan, Wen-je said that the Taipei-Shanghai forum is the "only official platform of communications between the two sides."

Taiwan and China have been ruled separately since the 1949 split. Beijing still regards Taiwan as a province to be reunited with the mainland, by military force if necessary.

The Trump administration has made strong gestures in support of Taiwan, including the "Taiwan Assurance Act of 2019," which supports Taiwan with "regular sales and defense articles." There have also been more frequent reconnoissances missions with US warships in the Taiwan Strait. This comes at a time when the trade war has escalated into an almost full economic war, that has severely strained US-China relations.

Readers have to understand the danger is growing of an actual shooting war that could involve China and the US sparring over Taiwan.





Then They Came For… Betsy Ross? Jefferson? July 4th? America?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by John Derbyshire via The Unz Review,

I hope you enjoyed your July 4th as much as the Derbs enjoyed ours. You should in fact enjoy the Fourth each year now with special zest in the knowledge that it may not be a public holiday much longer.

Our Cultural Revolution advances ever faster.

Nowadays the word “pride” dwells under a cloud of suspicion. Steve Sailer has mused that when the younger generation today learns about the 1942 Gary Cooper movie Pride of the Yankees, their first reaction is probably: “Hey, I didn’t know Lou Gehrig was gay!”

For example, we recently had Pride Week in New York City, with the word “pride” used in just that sense. It climaxed on Sunday, June 30th, in a huge parade of proud Ls, Gs, Bs, Ts, and Qs down Fifth Avenue.

Thus primed, I think I may be forgiven for having misapprehended a headline I saw on the Drudge Report. American Pride Hits New Low. “Uh-oh,” I thought, “what have the homo lobbies been up to now?”

On investigation it turned out that the news report had nothing to do with eccentric sexual inclinations. That headline was actually taken from a new press release out of Gallup, the very respectable polling organization:

As Americans prepare to celebrate the Fourth of July holiday, their pride in the U.S. has hit its lowest point since Gallup’s first measurement in 2001. While 70 percent of U.S. adults overall say they are proud to be Americans, this includes fewer than half (45 percent) who are “extremely” proud, marking the second consecutive year that this reading is below the majority level. Democrats continue to lag far behind Republicans in expressing extreme pride in the U.S.

American Pride Hits New Low; Few Proud of Political System, by Megan Brenan, July 2, 2019

The eye-catching sentence is: “Democrats continue to lag far behind Republicans in expressing extreme pride in the U.S.”

The actual percentages expressing themselves “extremely proud to be American” are: Republicans 76, Democrats 22. That’s a heck of a gap: 54 percentage points. In 2001 it was ten points, 64 to…
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Chainlink is Exploding Higher Thanks To The “Coinbase Effect”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The latest beneficiary of the so-called "Coinbase effect" which takes place when a given cryptocurrency is greenlighted to trade on the popular Coinbase platform, Chainlink, is a relatively unknown cryptocurrency, whose price has surged several hundred percents as its market cap now exceeds $1 billion and ranks 17th in crypto market cap, above Ethereum Classic, Zcash, and Bitcoin Gold.

Chainlink (LINK) has made impressive gains since its initial coin offering in mid-January, soaring over 800% in the last six months.

LINK was trading around the $2-handle in late June before its Coinbase debut gave millions of users the ability to pump the coin +150% from June 27-29; it has since slipped around the 3.50 level.

Launched by the San Francisco-based company SmartContract in summer 2017, Chainlink is a secure blockchain middleware that aims to connect smart contracts across blockchains by enabling smart contracts to access off-chain sources such as data feeds, web APIs, and traditional bank accounts. It provides a reliable connection to solve the 'oracle problem' for smart contracts.

Since blockchains cannot access data outside the chain, Chainlink's oracles allow access to third-party data feeds for smart contracts. Oracles provide external data that triggers smart contract executions upon the achievement of pre-defined conditions. This model was created around LINK coins is based on incentives (through rewards) to provide smart contracts with access to external data feeds.

Should users want access to off-chain data sources, they can submit a requesting contract to ChainLink's network. These contracts will match the asking settlement with the most relevant oracles.

LINK's parabolic price move has been driven by the Google Cloud team integrating Chainlink's oracle middleware with its BigQuery enterprise cloud data warehouse and the debut of Coinbase listing.

Reddit poster, u/colorsdontlie, wrote he was a "developer" and didn't see Chainlink as a long term investment. Meanwhile, San Fransico-based software entrepreneur, Frank Marcantoni, said Chainlink reminds him of Stripe in their early days with the advantage of blockchain. 





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, Thomas Jefferson University

Over the past few years direct-t...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

U.S. & Euro Financials Lagging Big Time! Should Stock Bulls Be Concerned?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Historically its been positive to see Financials doing well at the same time the broad market is pushing higher! If financial stocks are lagging bit time, should stock bulls be concerned?

This chart compares banks and in the U.S. (XLF) & Europe (EUFN) to the S&P 500 over the past 18-months.

Currently, XLF is lagging the S&P by more than 11...



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Zero Hedge

Tesla "Adjusts" Prices Again: Hikes Model X, S Starting Prices, Slashes Cost Of Model 3

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Tesla, who wants you to know that they are definitely, certainly not facing a demand problem, has again dropped the price of its Model 3 while bumping up starting prices of its Model S and Model X in what appears to be a push to drive more Model 3 sales and higher margin Model S and X sales. The move comes days after the company reported record Q2 deliveries, according to ...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For July 16, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $5.00 per share on revenue of $9.13 billion.
  • Domino's Pizza, Inc. (NYSE: DPZ) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $2.02 per share on revenue of $836.92 million.
  • JPMorgan Chase & Co. ...


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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Breaks Back Below $10k, Crypto-Crash Accelerates As Asia Opens

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Update 2010ET: Having briefly stabilized after this morning's weakness, cryptos are tumbling once again as Asian markets open.

Bitcoin has broken below $10,000 again...

*  *  *

While all eyes are on Bitcoin as it slides back towards $10,000, the real mover in the last 12 hours has been Ethereum after...



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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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ValueWalk

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

 

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

Courtesy of Jacob Wolinsky, ValueWalk

ValueWalk’s Q&A session with Professor Shubha Ghosh, a professor of law and the director of the Syracuse Intellectual Property Law Institute. In this interview, Professor Ghosh discusses his background, the Human Genome Project, the current state of gene editing, 3D printing for organ operations, and gene editing regulation.

...

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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Charts show us the golden brick road to high prices.

GLD Gann Angle has been working since 2016. Higher prices are expected. Who would say anything different, and why and how?

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



The GLD very wide channel shows us the way.
- Conservative: Tag the 10 year rally starting in 2001 to 2019 and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 10 years.
- Aggressive: Tag the 5 year rally starting in 1976 to 2019  and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 5 years.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if ima...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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