17,400 infected (double SARS), 364 people dead.
On the bright side, only 2% mortality is down from 3% but maybe that's because the rate of infection are exploding fastert than people are able to die. There were 10,000 infections on Friday and 213 deaths so 74% more infections and 71% more deaths isn't exactly what we usually call "under control" over a weekend, is it?
The Shanghai Stock Exchange re-opened from their New Year's holiday down 7.34% and, as I explained to our Members in Friday's Live Chat:
China rally has same low volume problem as US so they will be lucky not to fall 7.5% Monday, which is pretty much limit-down in China since they halt stocks at 10% so very hard to get the average for the index past -7.5%.
China is trying to stop the slide by stepping in economically, with the PBOC pushing in a massive $173Bn stimulus measure as well as a cut in the reverse-repo rate to push liquidity back into the system (something our own Fed has been doing since November). Short selling has also been halted on the Chinese markets. Apparently, oil demand in China (the World's 2nd largest consumer) was down 20% in January and that will get worse for February as more and more people are in the ever-expanding quarantine zone.
Hong Kong's Carrie Lam (pictured) is fighting her own people who want to shut down the boarder with China and she doesn't exactly inspire that "Don't Panic" vibe wearing a mask when she's interviewed, does she. Hong Kong's hospital workers voted 3,123 to 10 to shut down the boarders and they are going on strike today to attempt to foce a shutdown before they are overwhelmed by an epidemic they feel can get quickly out of hand.
My kids asked me why people in America don't seem to be worried about the virus and I told them to picture the Earth as a ball and us as ants and we hear rumors about a fire on the other side of the ball but we can't see any actual sign of it. We can panic about it or we can go about our daily lives and those are both the wrong choices because what we need to do is realize that things that happen on the other side of the ball will, ultimately, affect us and the only wise course of action is to help.
Well, you know that's not going to happen so either this problem fixes itself while we ignore it or all the panic in the World isn't going to help us by the time it finally gets close enough to our side to become "our problem". Our real problem is we have an unimpeachable, unidictable, untouchable President who doesn't even know what state the Chiefs are from, let alone where China is on a map!
Gilead (GILD) is up 5% pre-market because they have been working on an anti-viral vaccine for Ebola and SARS called Remdesivir and it's being rushed into human trails in China to see if it will be effective against the Coronavirus.
I like GILD down here at $65.50 (where it should open) as it's "just" an $80Bn valuation and GILD is good for about $8Bn in profits, though not last Q when they lost $1.2Bn on write-offs and such. Overall, they are a great company with a respectable pipeline and I think this is a great entry so we're going to add them to our Long-Term Portfolio as follws:
- Sell 5 GILD 2022 $62.50 puts for $8 ($4,000)
- Buy 15 GILD 2022 $55 calls for $13 ($19,500)
- Sell 15 GILD 2022 $65 calls for $8.50 ($12,750)
That's net $2,750 on the $22,500 spread so $19,750 of upside potential if GILD can simply hold $55 through Jan, 2022. Ordinary margin on the short puts is $2,400 so it's a very efficient way to make $19,750 over 2 years.
While we can look for potential brights spots, like GILD, the bottom-line is that the entire first Quarter for China is now shot to Hell and that's a $13Tn economy so $3Tn+ potentially hit and I'd say that's at least a $1Tn hit to the Global GDP (1%), which has a good chance of pushing many countries into recession – and that's WITHOUT the virus spreading.
So, as tempting as it may be – I wouldn't be jumping in and buying the dips just yet as we only have about the same number of recoveries as deaths, which makes this virus 42.6% fatal as it runs its course, possibly. While the Global Media is downplaying the virus, you might want to check out some of the stuff that's being posted on Social Media from the battle zone. Here's a woman being dragged from her home for not reporting to a quarantine center:
Come on lady, let's go
It's just the flu#coronavirus pic.twitter.com/CTJH3fCrl7
— Harry Chen PhD (@IsChinar) February 3, 2020
Yep, things are getting crazy! Keep in mind you are being told not to worry by the Media that is owned by the same Billionaires that want you to go out and buy their products as well as the products of their sponsors. If the empty streets of China begin to spread around the World – it's a lot more than 1% of the Global GDP that's going to fall off a cliff. We have lots and lots of earnings reports this month and we'll see how many of them are concerned about the Virus:
There's very little Fed Speak this week – Just Bostic and Kaplan but a good amount of data ahead but we'll be more conerned with Global Data to see who's numbers are being affected by the virus already:
Don't want to capitulate on TSLA but this is getting painful
Phil// Any adjustments needed for the below trade on IMAX. Thanks
In the Webinar, we wanted to add IMAX to the STP, which is going to be the LTP so really, this is for the LTP:
Buy 50 IMAX June $17 calls for $4 ($20,000)
Sell 50 IMAX June $20 calls for $1.90 ($9,500)
Sell 50 IMAX June $20 puts for $1.30 ($6,500)
That's net $4,000 on the $15,000 spread so $11,000 (275%) upside potential if IMAX is over $20 on June 19th. The risk is being assigned 5,000 IMAX at $20 ($100,000) but, realistically, maybe they are down 20% to $16 and the loss (if not rolled or stopped) is $4 x 5,000 or $20,000 – that's the true risk. ToS says $8,494 in ordinary margin is required – pretty efficient.
this is just wow factor. The TSLA weekly 800 call is up form 0.25 to ~15, that's some 5800%
Spectrum/Snow – Well just give us a number then….
CCL/Yodi – One passenger did test positive for the virus but seems OK otherwise. Also, Yodi, I think it's best not to put that in writing – I'm not sure it's legal. I'm removing the comment to be safe.
No Problem sorry I just wanted to find a reason why CCL is down to 43 must be some reason???
How can the TSLA 2022 $300 puts still be $23?
IMAX/Rookie – Yes, I have to believe this is some kind of bottom. Our LTP position is:
So we think this is a bit overdone but IMAX will be losing 25% of their business in China and perhaps most of Asia (1 qtr) and maybe some of the hundreds of theaters that they built on IMAX loans are going to default now – so there's the possibility of real, lasting damage.
Panic/Phil – 3
TSLA – $900 in 2020, and $200 in 2021. Although if I were Elon I'd be looking to make all-stock acquisitions of suppliers in order to make my accounts payable go away, while the stock is trading at 10x its actual value. Who knows, he might even accrete some profitable businesses that way.
ARK Investment Management, a thematic investment fund, revealed a new price target this weekend on Elon Musk's Tesla Inc., (NASDAQ: TSLA) after the electric automaker's big fourth-quarter earnings beat Wednesday.
Price targets are as follows:
The investment firm attributes this massive rise in stock price to three independent variables:
If that's the way Wright's Law actually worked then INTC would have already been a Quadrillion Dollar company!
Wright's Law is like hot sauce for these jokers – they put that shit on everything:
Here's where we were on Thursday:
Sold ETHE off today. It's trading some 150% over intrinsic value, which is 0.09481*Ethereum's Price =~ $18.
So I guess our best bet is to do what we did Thursday morning!
That's where we left off on Thursday.
I just don't think people understand math. We had 8,000 infections on Thursday and now 17,000+ is up 100% in 4 days and that means we're certainly going to be over 25,000 going into the weekend, possibly 30,000 infections and 1,000 deaths – those are the kind of numbers people panic over.
I don't see any of our date reports that are likely to be affected but, earnings-wise, let's think about who's likely to warn us:
Sony may have issues.
BP and COP will certainly have issues due to rapid drop in /CL.
Those guys stand out to me so we'll have to watch them closely.
natural gas is $1.81 per mmbtu and my bill it's $4.46 (before extra charges like delivery).
next week BPS 730/720 for 3.50? too risky? it will continue upwards if the shorts are not yet squeezed…just a couple of those.
Small IMAX position started with 4 17/20 jun BCS and short 4 jun $20 puts, rolled down to 8 Sept 15/19 BCS. Anything else I should do right now?
I left the 4 Jun $20 puts alone. Roll now or wait?
/NG/BDC – Good point, huge rip-off. /NG has been below $3 for all of 2019 yet we're all still paying in the $4s – there must be some consumer bureau who watches this stuff?
TSLA/Pat – I'd say anything to do with them is too risky! It's a good risk/reward but this is a completely irrational stock.
IMAX/Millard – Not really, have to let the virus run its course and see where we stand. Earnings are 2/19.
IMAX annual revenue is $375M with $25M in profits ($1Bn company) but trending past $40Bn for the past 3Qs, which is why we like them here. Should hit $60M next year but let's say that Sony pays IMAX $250 per $5,000 TV sold to license their tech. SNE sells about 20M TVs a year and let's say 10% are high-end like these but that's still 2M so $500M potential IMAX sales and let's say just 10% of that (1% of SNE TV sales) end up being IMAX TVs – that's still 200,000 x $250 would be $50M in licensing and I don't think SNE will be exclusive as they are only 10% of Global TV market but maybe they have a short-term arrangement with IMAX.
Either way, it's an exciting and impacful new form of revenues.
The Bug – not to say there isn't an outbreak, and not to say I'm not at least somewhat worried, although the data on the number of "confirmed cases" is at best questionable, and more likely worthless…
I think there's some serious big money/media taking advantage of this, stirring panic and trying to tank China's economy. IMHO there's some big bucks to be made by making lots of noise over the outbreak.
do you think there is a reasonable strike to sell CMG short puts to hedge my 2021 840 short calls instead of buying a 2022 spread? thanks
The Bug/ guys, do a search using the terms "ncov 2019 lab test shortages"