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Just Another Manic Monday

Image17,400 infected (double SARS), 364 people dead.  

On the bright side, only 2% mortality is down from 3% but maybe that's because the rate of infection are exploding fastert than people are able to die.  There were 10,000 infections on Friday and 213 deaths so 74% more infections and 71% more deaths isn't exactly what we usually call "under control" over a weekend, is it?

The Shanghai Stock Exchange re-opened from their New Year's holiday down 7.34% and, as I explained to our Members in Friday's Live Chat:

China rally has same low volume problem as US so they will be lucky not to fall 7.5%  Monday, which is pretty much limit-down in China since they halt stocks at 10% so very hard to get the average for the index past -7.5%. 

China is trying to stop the slide by stepping in economically, with the PBOC pushing in a massive $173Bn stimulus measure as well as a cut in the reverse-repo rate to push liquidity back into the system (something our own Fed has been doing since November).  Short selling has also been halted on the Chinese markets.  Apparently, oil demand in China (the World's 2nd largest consumer) was down 20% in January and that will get worse for February as more and more people are in the ever-expanding quarantine zone.  

Hong Kong's Carrie Lam (pictured) is fighting her own people who want to shut down the boarder with China and she doesn't exactly inspire that "Don't Panic" vibe wearing a mask when she's interviewed, does she.  Hong Kong's hospital workers voted 3,123 to 10 to shut down the boarders and they are going on strike today to attempt to foce a shutdown before they are overwhelmed by an epidemic they feel can get quickly out  of hand.  

My kids asked me why people in America don't seem to be worried about the virus and I told them to picture the Earth as a ball and us as ants and we hear rumors about a fire on the other side of the ball but we can't see any actual sign of it.  We can panic about it or we can go about our daily lives and those are both the wrong choices because what we need to do is realize that things that happen on the other side of the ball will, ultimately, affect us and the only wise course of action is to help.

Well, you know that's not going to happen so either this problem fixes itself while we ignore it or all the panic in the World isn't going to help us by the time it finally gets close enough to our side to become "our problem".  Our real problem is we have an unimpeachable, unidictable, untouchable President who doesn't even know what state the Chiefs are from, let alone where China is on a map!

Gilead (GILD) is up 5% pre-market because they have been working on an anti-viral vaccine for Ebola and SARS called Remdesivir and it's being rushed into human trails in China to see if it will be effective against the Coronavirus. 

I like GILD down here at $65.50 (where it should open) as it's "just" an $80Bn valuation and GILD is good for about $8Bn in profits, though not last Q when they lost $1.2Bn on write-offs and such.  Overall, they are a great company with a respectable pipeline and I think this is a great entry so we're going to add them to our Long-Term Portfolio as follws:

  • Sell 5 GILD 2022 $62.50 puts for $8 ($4,000) 
  • Buy 15 GILD 2022 $55 calls for $13 ($19,500) 
  • Sell 15 GILD 2022 $65 calls for $8.50 ($12,750) 

That's net $2,750 on the $22,500 spread so $19,750 of upside potential if GILD can simply hold $55 through Jan, 2022.  Ordinary margin on the short puts is $2,400 so it's a very efficient way to make $19,750 over 2 years.

While we can look for potential brights spots, like GILD, the bottom-line is that the entire first Quarter for China is now shot to Hell and that's a $13Tn economy so $3Tn+ potentially hit and I'd say that's at least a $1Tn hit to the Global GDP (1%), which has a good chance of pushing many countries into recession – and that's WITHOUT the virus spreading.  

So, as tempting as it may be – I wouldn't be jumping in and buying the dips just yet as we only have about the same number of recoveries as deaths, which makes this virus 42.6% fatal as it runs its course, possibly.  While the Global Media is downplaying the virus, you might want to check out some of the stuff that's being posted on Social Media from the battle zone.  Here's a woman being dragged from her home for not reporting to a quarantine center:

 

Yep, things are getting crazy!  Keep in mind you are being told not to worry by the Media that is owned by the same Billionaires that want you to go out and buy their products as well as the products of their sponsors.  If the empty streets of China begin to spread around the World – it's a lot more than 1% of the Global GDP that's going to fall off a cliff.   We have lots and lots of earnings reports this month and we'll see how many of them are concerned about the Virus:

Image

There's very little Fed Speak this week – Just Bostic and Kaplan but a good amount of data ahead but we'll be more conerned with Global Data to see who's numbers are being affected by the virus already:

 


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  1. Scary when the fate of the world (in the case of climate change, literally) could be in the hands of such an ignorant person!


  2. Trade wars are easy to win! So much winning for the farmers:

    https://www.fb.org/market-intel/the-verdict-is-in-farm-bankruptcies-up-in-2019

    Depending on perspective, net farm income in 2019 inflation-adjusted dollars is either down 33% from a record high or up nearly 40% from the decade low set in 2016. Regardless of perspective, net farm income in 2019 is slightly above the 20-year average but was supported in large part by the Trump administration’s efforts to financially shield farmers from unfair retaliatory tariffs.

    Without this support, farm-related income from crop and livestock sales in 2019 inflation-adjusted dollars would have been at the second-lowest level in the last decade at $63.6 billion. The corollary to this is that farm bankruptcies could have been worse considering the record-high farm debt of $415 billion (in nominal terms) and the likely difficulties servicing this debt without the revenue from the Market Facilitation Program.



  3. AIMT +16.7%  Company announces that the FDA approved PALFORZIA, the first approved treatment for patients with peanut allergy

    26% of the float is short. so it might squeeze from here.  Or the shorts could attack since meaningful revenues are some time away.


  4. TSLA

    Argus upped their Tesla price target to $808 from $556.



  5. Good Morning!


  6. Phil how would you hedge 3 short June 2021 CMG 840 calls going into Tomorrow's earnings?


  7. Good morning!  

    TSLA up another $25 (5%) this morning and why not?  

    More importantly, the Big Chart has the NYSE and the Dow below the 50 dmas at 13,787 and 28,435 so watch those guys as there's no recovery without them getting back over (now 13,614 and 28,256).

    Of course, S&P failing 3,211 would be BAD

    If that happens, we'll have to hedge for a drop to the 200 dmas, which is another 7.5% down from here. 

    Farms/StJ – Don't forget, Trump isn't bailing out the poor bastards who are going bankrupt – just giving taxpayer-funded subsidies to his wealthy farm donors from his tariff slush fund.  Fortunately for him, it's not an impeachable offense since President Trump thinks it's in the best interest of the country if he gets re-elected so anything he does to get himself re-elected is, by definition, in our National Interest.  

    Yep, that's actually the interpretation of the Constitution we are now living under…

    Image result for trump iron throne"

    GILD spiked and came back, our LTP play (with opening prices) is:

    I like GILD down here at $65.50 (where it should open) as it's "just" an $80Bn valuation and GILD is good for about $8Bn in profits, though not last Q when they lost $1.2Bn on write-offs and such.  Overall, they are a great company with a respectable pipeline and I think this is a great entry so we're going to add them to our Long-Term Portfolio as follws:

    • Sell 5 GILD 2022 $62.50 puts for $9 ($4,500) 
    • Buy 15 GILD 2022 $55 calls for $12 ($18,000) 
    • Sell 15 GILD 2022 $65 calls for $6.70 ($10,050) 

    That's net $3,450 on the $22,500 spread so $19,050 (552%) of upside potential if GILD can simply hold $55 through Jan, 2022.  Ordinary margin on the short puts is $2,400 so it's a very efficient way to make $19,050 over 2 years.

    TSLA/Albo – I still think they are all idiots (but I'm wrong so far).

    CMG/Coulter – If they pop like TSLA I'm going to take a very long walk away from these markets!   I don't think it hurts much to have a couple of 2022 $850 ($160)/950 ($120) bull call spreads as a cover – just in case.  The net delta on them is just 0.10 so a $40 (5%) drop in CMG would only cost about $4 out of $40 while the short June $840s (now $80) have an 0.62 delta so they'd drop $24 but also be on a good patch for a 100% gain.


  8. I would argue that only a very small percentage of media outlets are pushing a 'don't worry' narrative. Almost every news story i see insists on using the word 'deadly' Infront of the virus name. 

    here are a couple of thoughts in no particular order:

    I live in NYC (currently riding the subway as I type this) and this 'keep it moving' attitude has gotten this city through more troubles than i can count, still I don't think there are many people who aren't scared, deep down.  I have a 6 month old baby and I'm terrified for his wellbeing

    I had a Bangladeshi Uber driver last night who said to me "whatch out for the Chinese". Wow. I suppose most people can't read terrifying headlines and mortality rate statistics and then go on to talk about options ;)

    If an infected individual refuses to report To quarantine….?!

    Wash your hands.

     


  9. Quarantine/Potter – The problem is the quarantine seems to be like army camps and people who report there don't come back so people are more afraid of them than the virus.  Also, it you don't think you're sick and they want to send you to a camp filled with sick people – it's not an unnatural reaction.


  10. TSLA Up 11%! Insane. 


  11. Phil/The Bug – I looked through that Johns Hopkins n-Cov site, and that 17k+ number of confirmed cases makes me very uncomfortable. The WHO definition of a confirmed case calls for lab testing, and just a week or so ago the US was shipping the few test kits we had to China and telling them to get their PCR test assembly line going. Maybe they did, maybe they cranked out thousands of test kits in a few days, and drew blood from thousands of patients, and had the labs run tests. Or maybe they're calling a lot of symptomatic people "confirmed cases". The deal with the link with the wet market is still floating around, too, but look what that's based on: a patient series of 99 records in one hospital (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext), "49 (49%) of 99 patients had been exposed to Huanan seafood market". What's missing there? Ummm, how about a comparison….what proportion of the locals who would come to that hospital go to that seafood market over what period of time.

    So, Potter, while "don't worry" wouldn't be the way I would phrase it either, there's some really sloppy reporting of the epidemiology going on, and I suspect there's a lot of other diseases – colds, bronchitis, etc being reported as "confirmed cases". I would bet that we have thousands of false positives in the China reported counts, and likely there's plenty of unreported false negatives as well. It's a mess.


  12. China data is always a mess. Their scientific publications are even worse.

    TSLA calls! That's a should coulda woulda didn't!!! :( :(  Who knows, albo, maybe it goes to 1000 this week…

    Phil – in fairness Jersey City is in the State of Jersey, right? :P


  13. Virus/Snow – Well now you're worried and you were the one saying it didn't look to bad last week?

    Not to spread fear and rumors but I spoke to a Hedge Fund manager in China and he's of the opinion that it's a lot worse than the Government is admitting over there.  


  14. Oil just lost 4 yr support, load up on SCO calls!


  15. Perspective:

    No one seems too worried.  

    We get to short TLT again.

    TSLA is up to $715!  Just an out of control short squeeze now.  


  16. Phil/The Bug, now don't put words in my mouth – there's a spectrum between "Don't worry" and "worried"…

    :P


  17. Phil/The Bug  My current position is "It's a mess, the data look really bad, and I can't tell what's going on."


  18. Just a little example on Trading.

    I sold the GILD Jan 22 62.5 put for 8.45. Looking at the position an hour later the same put was than selling at 8.75. So dam it I lost already .30. So what I do to feel better, I offer to sell one more 62.5 put asking say8.85. So guess what instantly the price dropped again to 8.30.

    That is how they like to fool us. But now I feel better as my acc shows again a .15 cents credit.

    Just try that if you feel you cheated.


  19. So how do we handle/hedge the TSLA short calls?


  20. Really lucked out on CCL as a short when it was back at $51. I didn't think it'd get this low and am only holding 1/3 at this point. 


  21. I might just try that on JO today, Yodi. 


  22. Atitlan  CCL I do hold the stock as well. This to me is again a problem of the corona virus, see example that cruse ship in Rom, held for a full day on suspicion of infected people.
    As long you do not sell the stock you will not have a loss and all the short callers meanwhile run worthless.

    JO
    Sorry I do not drink too much coffee


  23. TSLA $7000 price target now







  24. Don't want to capitulate on TSLA but this is getting painful


  25. Phil// Any adjustments needed for the below trade on IMAX.  Thanks

    In the Webinar, we wanted to add IMAX to the STP, which is going to be the LTP so really, this is for the LTP:

    Buy 50 IMAX June $17 calls for $4 ($20,000) 

    Sell 50 IMAX June $20 calls for $1.90 ($9,500) 

    Sell 50 IMAX June $20 puts for $1.30 ($6,500) 

    That's net $4,000 on the $15,000 spread so $11,000 (275%) upside potential if IMAX is over $20 on June 19th.  The risk is being assigned 5,000 IMAX at $20 ($100,000) but, realistically, maybe they are down 20% to $16 and the loss (if not rolled or stopped) is $4 x 5,000 or $20,000 – that's the true risk.  ToS says $8,494 in ordinary margin is required – pretty efficient.  


  26. this is just wow factor. The TSLA weekly 800 call is up form 0.25 to ~15, that's some 5800%


  27. Spectrum/Snow – Well just give us a number then….

    Image result for panic chart"

    TSLA $730!

    TSLA/Coulter – Gosh, we just rolled to $650 short calls and now $730 in the STP – I hate to jump on a one-day move but these moves have been multiple days.  We had the June $550 calls we sold for $66.50 and we rolled those to the Sept $650 calls at $102.35 and our net was down to like $18 and now the Sept $650s are $182 but the Sept $750s are $132 so we need $25,000 to roll 5 short calls up so let's do that in the STP and let's sell 3 more Jan $550 puts at $57 ($17,100) to mostly pay for it (we already sold 2 for 70 ($14,000) to help pay for the other roll.  

    JO/Yodi, Ati – Good play to make.    For the LTP, let's:

    • Sell 10 JO Sept $30 puts for $1.70 ($1,700)
    • Buy 20 JO Sept $25 calls for $7.50 ($15,000)
    • Sell 20 JO Sept $30 calls for $3.85 ($7,700) 

    That's net $5,600 on the $10,000 spread and we're happy to press it if we get lower prices but I doubt $30 will break.

    CCL/Yodi – One passenger did test positive for the virus but seems OK otherwise.  Also, Yodi, I think it's best not to put that in writing – I'm not sure it's legal.  I'm removing the comment to be safe. 


  28. No Problem sorry I just wanted to find a reason why CCL is down to 43 must be some reason???


  29. How can the TSLA 2022 $300 puts still be $23?  

    IMAX/Rookie – Yes, I have to believe this is some kind of bottom.  Our LTP position is:

    IMAX Long Call 2020 19-JUN 17.00 CALL [IMAX @ $16.77 $0.23] 50 1/15/2020 (137) $19,750 $3.95 $-2.53 $3.95     $1.43 $0.18 $-12,625 -63.9% $7,125
    IMAX Short Call 2020 19-JUN 20.00 CALL [IMAX @ $16.77 $0.23] -50 1/15/2020 (137) $-9,250 $1.85 $-1.43     $0.43 - $7,125 77.0% $-2,125
    IMAX Short Put 2020 19-JUN 20.00 PUT [IMAX @ $16.77 $0.23] -50 1/15/2020 (137) $-6,500 $1.30 $2.20     $3.50 $-0.30 $-11,000 -169.2% $-17,500

    So we think this is a bit overdone but IMAX will be losing 25% of their business in China and perhaps most of Asia (1 qtr) and maybe some of the hundreds of theaters that they built on IMAX loans are going to default now – so there's the possibility of real, lasting damage.

    So, what do we do to protect?  IMAX options only go out to Sept so no emergency to roll the puts though we can sell 25 of the Sept $18 puts for $2.40 ($6,000) as a pre-roll for the Jun $20 puts that are now $3.50 so let's say a stop on 1/2 at $4 to be safe.  We'll let the short $20s die where they are and we'll salvage $1.40 from our 50 June $17 calls ($7,000) and buy 50 of the Sept $15 calls for $3 ($15,000) so we've given ourselves 3 more months and widened the spread by $2 ($10,000) for net $2,000.  

    Wow BDC! 


  30. Panic/Phil – 3

     

    :P


  31. TSLA – $900 in 2020, and $200 in 2021. Although if I were Elon I'd be looking to make all-stock acquisitions of suppliers in order to make my accounts payable go away, while the stock is trading at 10x its actual value. Who knows, he might even accrete some profitable businesses that way.


  32. Super Bowl 2020 ad review




  33. Polling: Americans dissatisfied with the state of the union


  34. ARK Investment Management, a thematic investment fund, revealed a new price target this weekend on Elon Musk's Tesla Inc., (NASDAQ: TSLA) after the electric automaker's big fourth-quarter earnings beat Wednesday.

    Price targets are as follows:

    • Expected Value (50% Probability): $7,000
    • Bear Case (25% Probability): $1,500
    • Bull Case (25% Probability): $15,000

    The investment firm attributes this massive rise in stock price to three independent variables:

    • Gross margins to approach 40%, in line with Wright's Law.
    • Capital efficiency improvement with increased production scale.
    • Evolution of autonomous capabilities and penetration of autonomous taxi service.

    If that's the way Wright's Law actually worked then INTC would have already been a Quadrillion Dollar company! 

    Image result for Wright's Law"

    Wright's Law is like hot sauce for these jokers – they put that shit on everything:

    Image result for Wright's Law"


  35. Here's where we were on Thursday:

    And today:

    Hmmmmmmmmmm……….


  36. Sold ETHE off today. It's trading some 150% over intrinsic value, which is 0.09481*Ethereum's Price =~ $18.


  37. So I guess our best bet is to do what we did Thursday morning!

    Image8,000 infections, 170 deaths.  

    That's the number we're up to this morning but it is less than 9,000 so not getting wose though the rise in deaths to 170 is disturbing from 106 yesterday.  1.7% is the number I'm more concerned with as that is the Fed's most recent estimate for our Q4 GDP and you would think they would know but this is just the first estimate for Q4 – so the number we hear this morning is a lot more like a guess than a statistic anyway.

    We guessed we hadn't heard the last of the coronavirus in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar (replay available here) and we shorted the S&P (/ES) Futures way back at 3,285 and they are already down to 3,245 for a $2,000 gain, per contract (you're welcome!) and the Nasdaq (/NQ) Futures we shorted at 9,142.50 are now down to 9,037 for a gain of $2,110 per contract – not bad for a day's "work", right?

    In the bigger picture (there's always a bigger picture) we're simply retesting Monday's low's and we made a lot less money than we did on Monday because, on the whole, we only had a strong bounce which quickly failed and now we're retesting the lows so, if we only get a weak bounce now and that fails – look out below!   But, for now, we'll take our quick profits ooff the table and re-enter shorts below the 28,500 line on the Dow (/YM) Futures with tight stops above. 

    Here are the bounce lines for the S&P 500, as calculated by our Flawless 5% Rule™:

    We predicted all the index bounces on Monday for our Members in our Live Chat Room at 10:52 and, so far, the indexes have done exactly what we expected, which is actually bad because we expected this would be the start of a breakdown…  Oh well…  

    What we're looking for today is signs that the rate of viral infections is slowing (more important than deaths acellerating) and, chart-wise, we'll be looking for more than a weak bounce.  If the weak bounce line isn't taken and held into the close – it will be time for more hedges.  Remember, I can only tell you what is likely to happen and how to profit from it – the rest is up to you!  

    Copper/StJ – I like them long off the $2.50 line with tight stops below.

    Remember, I like /YM below 28,500 with tight stops above.  /ES 3,250 same.

    TSLA/JMD – Sounds reasonable but would suck if they hit $800+.  Keep in mind they were $450 2 weeks ago (and that would suck too).  

    /YM/Potter – 28,500 is the stop!  The idea is to enter on a cross below and get out if it goes back over. 

    Made $250 on the first cross under and up a bit on the 2nd but stopped back out and now waiting for a 3rd.  

     

    Stocks slide after U.S. virus transmission confirmed

    • Stocks bounce down again after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, along with Illinois public health officials, confirm the first case of person-to-person transmission of the coronavirus in the U.S.

    WHO/Batman – The general tone was that things were under control and they are only declaring an emergency as it allows them to grant extraordinary aid to countries that can't afford to contain the virus without help.  Sounds kind of reasonable.  Very few cases outside China so far (less than 100) so it is pretty much contained – from what we know at the moment.  It could still devastate China – but Global Pandemic seems off the table, so that's nice…

    Still, I'd rather go by the data (we've had great calls following it) so best to wait until Monday and see what trajectory the infections are on.  Looks like we're right about 9,000 today and that's not really slowing the spread very much but tomorrow, if we're under 12,000 – that's good progress (down from 50% per day).  

    8,000 of the infections came since last week but last week they were already locking things down so very possible the first 1,000 people infected a lot of people but the next 8,000 infected were surrounded by paranoid people in masks and kept from traveling etc. so, if this thing is working, we should see a pretty drastic drop-off of the infection rate by next week.  If not – better hit that bucket list…

    So 27 people had it on 12/31 and we didn't see 100 until two weeks later.  27, 40, 60, 90, 135 would be the 50% progression but it was 1/2 of that for whatever reason.  The lockdown came last week (21st) but 5M people got out of town before that happened and, clearly, some of them were infected as we have instances all over China and Globally but, more to the point, 5M people went out last week and, very conservatively, 500 of them had to be infected – even with screening.  That is enough, unfortunately, to be a major bomb if this virus incubates for 2 weeks before getting serious enough to notice as the above graph can be replicated like that for each patient that gets out.

    That's where we left off on Thursday.

    I just don't think people understand math.  We had 8,000 infections on Thursday and now 17,000+ is up 100% in 4 days and that means we're certainly going to be over 25,000 going into the weekend, possibly 30,000 infections and 1,000 deaths – those are the kind of numbers people panic over.  

    I don't see any of our date reports that are likely to be affected but, earnings-wise, let's think about who's likely to warn us:

    Image

    Sony may have issues.

    BP and COP will certainly have issues due to rapid drop in /CL

    • DIS has huge issues.
    • RCL – issues
    • GILD – Positive hopefully.
    • GM – Issues 
    • WYNN – Screwed! 
    • Uber – Issues
    • Honda – Issues

    Those guys stand out to me so we'll have to watch them closely.  


  38. natural gas is $1.81 per mmbtu and my bill it's $4.46 (before extra charges like delivery).


  39. Phil/TSLA

    next week BPS 730/720 for 3.50? too risky? it will continue upwards if the shorts are not yet squeezed…just a couple of those.

    regards


  40. Small IMAX position started with 4 17/20 jun BCS and short 4 jun $20 puts, rolled down to 8 Sept 15/19 BCS. Anything else I should do right now?




  41. I left the 4 Jun $20 puts alone. Roll now or wait?


  42. /NG/BDC – Good point, huge rip-off.  /NG has been below $3 for all of 2019 yet we're all still paying in the $4s – there must be some consumer bureau who watches this stuff?

    TSLA/Pat – I'd say anything to do with them is too risky!  It's a good risk/reward but this is a completely irrational stock.

    The Ford engineer later deleted his comments, but the Internet lives on forever.

    Allegedly, a Ford engineer thought it was wise to criticize Tesla for shoddy build quality and other questionable safety concerns, but then the engineer deleted all of the comments. Why?

    We were alerted to a thread on Reddit (an Ask Me Anything session) that has since been deleted, but our friends over at the Mach-E Forum captured it all in its entirety before it was taken down.

    https://insideevs.com/news/396298/ford-mach-e-better-than-tesla/

    IMAX/Millard – Not really, have to let the virus run its course and see where we stand.  Earnings are 2/19. 

    https://www.avsforum.com/sony-75-x950g-imax-enhanced-tv-review/

    Sony makes premium TVs that offer AV enthusiasts exceptional performance. The 75” X950 4K IMAX Enhanced Android TV featured in this review brings home a rich feature set and high image quality at an attractive price and in large screen sizes including 75″ and 85″.

    The Sony X950G will faithfully reproduce IMAX Enhanced content, whether streaming or on Ultra HD Blu-ray. This model represents a step up from 2018’s X900F, featuring the X1 Ultimate processor instead of the X1 Extreme. The 75” and 85” models of this series also have Sony’s X-Wide Angle viewing technology built in.

    With the 75 X950G priced at $2998 and the 85” X950G at $4498 on Amazon, these TVs bring all the latest 4K features in a package that reflects Sony’s experience building great TVs.

    The X950G includes the Privilege 4K app from Sony that provides access to numerous IMAX Enhanced Hollywood titles including Spiderman: HomecomingVenom and JumanjiWelcome to the Jungle as well as IMAX Enhanced documentaries Blue PlanetGalapagosSpace Station, and The Dream is Alive. Not only do you get optimized 4K HDR video but you’ll also enjoy optimized IMAX Enhanced sound delivered exclusively using DTS audio technologies.

    One of the best “features” of the X950G is that several picture modes offer astonishing accuracy for an uncalibrated TV. . Per Sony, “Onboard IMAX calibrated modes are set and approved by Hollywood colorists to help provide enhanced picture and sound for HDR UHD content.”

    A key point here is that when the X950G is playing IMAX Enhanced content, it optimizes the picture mode for it. And given the accurate picture delivered by this TV, the result is recognizably superior image fidelity defined by extreme sharpness and detail with vivid yet accurate color.

    Sony’s X950G supports eARC (via HDMI 3) which, when used with compatible AV hardware, lets you send 3D immersive sound (DTS:X and Dolby Atmos) to the audio device. eARC works for both DTS and Dolby forms of lossless immersive audio.

     

    The IMAX Enhanced demo footage looked and sounded absolutely stunning. Of course, it helps that the source is an IMAX film. Indeed, the clarity—even when streaming—is such that it’s hyperreal. The fidelity of IMAX Enhanced is a potent reminder that it’s not enough to simply release content in a hi-res format, you need to master the content to take full advantage of it and then use playback gear that can do it justice.

    The 75” Sony X950G does the IMAX Enhanced video justice. The preview for Galapagos reminded me of the clips shown by TV makers at tradeshows to demonstrate how awesome their TVs are. Rocks and water and lizards and plants all make for great eye candy, full of colors and textures that come from nature itself.

    The IMAX Enhanced, remastered 2002 feature Space Station made even clearer that IMAX Enhanced brings home viewing experiences that were once the exclusive domain of commercial cinemas. And in terms of sheer contrast and brightness, the X950G surpasses anything I’ve seen in a movie theater. Its ability to render bright objects over the absolute blackness of outer space—without triggering any clouding or halos—and do so even with HDR content, shows that Sony’s FALD implementation is the real deal.

    IMAX annual revenue is $375M with $25M in profits ($1Bn company) but trending past $40Bn for the past 3Qs, which is why we like them here.  Should hit $60M next year but let's say that Sony pays IMAX $250 per $5,000 TV sold to license their tech.  SNE sells about 20M TVs a year and let's say 10% are high-end like these but that's still 2M so $500M potential IMAX sales and let's say just 10% of that (1% of SNE TV sales) end up being IMAX TVs – that's still 200,000 x $250 would be $50M in licensing and I don't  think SNE will be exclusive as they are only 10% of Global TV market but maybe they have a short-term arrangement with IMAX.

    Either way, it's an exciting and impacful new form of revenues. 


  43. The Bug – not to say there isn't an outbreak, and not to say I'm not at least somewhat worried, although the data on the number of "confirmed cases" is at best questionable, and more likely worthless…

    BUT….

    I think there's some serious big money/media taking advantage of this, stirring panic and trying to tank China's economy. IMHO there's some big bucks to be made by making lots of noise over the outbreak.


  44. TSLA $782!  Up 20% today.  5% Rule says $25 pullback and the March $600 puts are $25 and were $40 yesterday with an 0.15 delta so have to be over $800 to lose $5 so I like them for an overnight short.  

    Ridiculously risky, of course.


  45. Oops, those were TSLA April $600 puts!  Now $24.40.


  46. Back to 4 long /NG at $1.825 avg.


  47. Phil

     do you think there is a reasonable strike to sell CMG short puts to hedge my 2021 840 short calls instead of buying a 2022 spread?  thanks
     


  48. The Bug/  guys, do a search using the terms "ncov 2019 lab test shortages"

    Most revealing.



  49. China’s Economic Contagion



  50. How Zombies Ate the G.O.P.’s Soul




  51. Lots of comments on TSLA

    Interesting to look at my trade set up for Feb. 1/8/20 and for Mar. 1/30/20 showing a combined profit of 3,186.00

    Position Details                            
    Symbol                    Days    Qty    Exp       Strike    Mark             trade/p    p/loss
    TSLA        0            768         
    .TSLA200221C495    17    -1    21-Feb-20    495    277.280397    41.3    -23598.0397
    .TSLA200221P495    17    -1    21-Feb-20    495    1.5088105    38.4    3689.11895
    .TSLA200221C505    17    1    21-Feb-20    505    267.3691397    36.6    23076.91397
    .TSLA200320P630    45    2    20-Mar-20    630    23.23714923    44.1    -4172.570154
    .TSLA200320P635    45    -2    20-Mar-20    635    24.48465741    46.8    4463.07
    .TSLA200320C645    45    -2    20-Mar-20    645    152.7212705    47    -21144.25
    .TSLA200320C650    45    2    20-Mar-20    650    149.0074942    44.65    20871.98842
                                                                                                                         3186.231491


  52. 900 or 1000 today? TSLA still squeezing