Comment by phil

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phil
February 4th, 2020 at 11:30 am

Interesting with TSLA, the April $600 puts from yesterday at $24.40 are now $25.50 so they've gained money even though TSLA went $100 the wrong way.  That indicates that, aside from the internal volatility going through the roof – a lot of people are jumping in on the short side.  

In the STP, amazingly we sold 5 TSLA Sept $750 calls for $132 ($66,000) yesterday and now they are $245 ($122,500) but, fortunately, the Sept $900 calls are now $180, so we're being paid $50 more to be at the money than we were yesterday.  We need to sell 7 of them to be at the same $122K(ish) but let's not jump the gun and just sell 3 of the Sept $900 calls for $180 and put a stop on 3 of the Sept $750 calls at $275, which should give us about $25 more before that triggers ($940ish).  If that happens, we'll effectively have rolled 3 $150 higher for net $95 ($28,500) and we'll have to make that up with the roll of the rest, possibly to the Jan $1,000s, which are now $185 though $1,000 is scary close now.  

Also, there's no point in our 5 short 2022 $300 puts, which are still $20, we have 2 short Jan $550 puts at $60 and we can sell 5 Jan $600 puts for $75 ($37,500) keeping in mind it's about balance – we'll certainly be very happy if TSLA drops hard and they double up!  

SKT/Pat – Wow, what a drop from a nice push higher.  There's nothing really to adjust, our call-away is $15 in 2022 and it's at $14 now – really right on track as opposed to being way over our target. 

SKT	Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc.	1000	10/29/2019	98	$17,150	$17.15	$-3.16	$16.80			$14.00	$0.16	$-3,155	-18.4%	$13,995
SKT Short Call	2022 21-JAN 15.00 CALL [SKT @ $14.00 $0.16]	-10	10/29/2019	(717)	$-2,950	$2.95	$-1.83				$1.13	$0.23	$1,825	61.9%	$-1,125
SKT Short Put	2022 21-JAN 15.00 PUT [SKT @ $14.00 $0.16]	-10	10/29/2019	(717)	$-3,200	$3.20	$1.25				$4.45	$0.14	$-1,250	-39.1%	$-4,450



Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (NYSE:SKT) guidance for 2020 FFO per share of $1.96-$2.04 trails the consensus estimate of $2.16.

Guidance assumes 2020 same-center net operating income for consolidated portfolio between -6.75% and -8.25%, reflecting $37.6M impairment recognized for Jeffersonville, OH, property, average occupancy of 92%-93%; and projected store closures related to tenant bankruptcies and restructurings.

"While we anticipate potential near-term occupancy and rent pressure, we plan to lease strategically to upgrade our tenancy and the consumer experience in order to drive long-term growth," said CEO Steven B. Tanger.

Q4 adjusted FFO per share of 59 cents per share beats the average analyst estimate of 56 cents and compares with 64 cents in the year-ago period.

Current quarter includes a 4-cent per share dilutive impact related to assets sold in March 2019.

Q4 same-center NOI for the consolidated portfolio fell 0.4% for the quarter and 0.7% for the full year, primarily due to the impact of tenant bankruptcies, lease modifications, and store closures.

2020 guidance assumes 303K square feet of known closures relating to all Dressbarn and Kitchen Collection stores and certain Forever 21 and Destination Maternity stores that closed in January and 322K-372K square feet of potential additional closures.

So they are "only" going to make $2 per $14 share?  Is this really something to panic over?  It's not like they aren't going to sell the space to someone eventually but traders tend to take these things as total write-offs where I see it more like 50% impactful.  They'll be surprised when earnings aren't so bad a year from now.