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  1. phil

    Good morning!

    We're off to the races and the horses are being held at the gate.  We did exactly hit GS's -15% line so I guess someone is hitting the buy button this morning – it's just a question of how many sellers are left.  

    Volume yesterday was huge:

    Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume
    Mar 13, 2020 - - - - - -
    Mar 12, 2020 256.00 266.66 247.68 248.11 248.11 390,215,100
    Mar 11, 2020 280.70 281.94 270.88 274.36 274.36 255,316,300
    Mar 10, 2020 284.64 288.52 273.50 288.42 288.42 276,444,100
    Mar 09, 2020 275.30 284.19 273.45 274.23 274.23 309,417,300
    Mar 06, 2020 293.15 298.78 290.23 297.46 297.46 228,667,200
    Mar 05, 2020 304.98 308.47 300.01 302.46 302.46 186,366,800
    Mar 04, 2020 306.12 313.10 303.33 312.86 312.86 176,613,400
    Mar 03, 2020 309.50 313.84 297.57 300.24 300.24 300,139,100
    Mar 02, 2020 298.21 309.16 294.46 309.09 309.09 238,703,600
    Feb 28, 2020 288.70 297.89 285.54 296.26 296.26 385,764,000
    Feb 27, 2020 305.46 311.56 297.51 297.51 297.51 284,353,500
    Feb 26, 2020 314.18 318.11 310.70 311.50 311.50 194,773,800
    Feb 25, 2020 323.94 324.61 311.69 312.65 312.65 218,913,200
    Feb 24, 2020 323.14 333.56 321.24 322.42 322.42 161,088,400
    Feb 21, 2020 335.47 335.81 332.58 333.48 333.48 113,788,200
    Feb 20, 2020 337.74 338.64 333.68 336.95 336.95 74,163,400
    Feb 19, 2020 337.79 339.08 337.48 338.34 338.34 48,814,700
    Feb 18, 2020 336.51 337.67 335.21 336.73 336.73 57,226,200
    Feb 14, 2020 337.51 337.73 336.20 337.60 337.60 64,582,200

    Unless volume is huge on the way back up, this move will be very suspect.  

    Big Chart – As StJ notes, the real indexes (NYSE and RUT) that are hard to manipulate are actually down over 3 years, Nas still has a long way to fall if things turn sour.

    PE/StJ – This is like 2008, those earnings estimates are in fantasy land.  40% of Disney's revenues come from the parks and they'll lose 10% of that due to closures, minimum.  If they can't cut costs to keep up then could know off about 30% of the bottom line ($3Bn).  Movies not good either but at least they can be delayed and made up later. 

    I hope DIS pays the workers as that's my Nephew and his girlfriend.  

    ET/Tangled – Very cheap and a good deal at this price ($16Bn) with $3.5Bn in earnings last year.  Their dividend is $1.22 and they should be able to service it so like 17%!    They are already in our Dividend Portfolio.

    SPY/Tangled – On the whole, you get about the same bang for your margin buck in SPY or the Futures but the Futures have less friction cost, which is why I prefer them for short-term trades.  Not sure what you mean by 10,000/50 ES Futures as that seems extremely large but I think you mean $10,000 worth of $50 per point /ES contracts but it's the margin that matters and /ES contracts are $10,000 in margin (maybe that's what you meant?) so let's say you buy one /ES long at 2,600 and it goes up 10% to 2,860 and you make $13,000 vs buying 4 SPY April 260 calls at $25 ($10,000) and SPY goes to $290 and, since the $230s are now $45, you would make $8,000 so less and that's because the premiums are much higher than usual which is again, why I'm playing the Futures during this chaos and not the indexes.  

    DIS/Pstas – Total disaster for Orlando.  Not sure if Universal is closed yet but that city can be killed if those parks are off-line for a month.

    /ES/Pg – I should have stopped out but I went out for dinner and it was already too far down by the time I came back so I just left them – figured I'd DD in the morning but then it had popped too much to chase.  All worked out, fortunately.  Stop is now 2,600.  

    /CL stopped out at $33, still in /SI at $16.33 avg on 4 contracts (now $15.70)

    Remember, this is just the weak bounce line (up 6% – 20% of a 30% drop) – NOTHING to be excited about – especially as it's coming due to more stimulus.  

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