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Fallback Friday – US Passes China to Become Most Infected Nation

Why the COVID-19 death rate varies dramatically from country to ...85,996!  

That's how many infections there are in the US as of 6:49 this morning and China has 81,897 so we blew right past them – even though we had 3 more months to prepare than China did and we were certainly not taken by surprise – other than our President, who asked us "Who could have seen this coming?"  

It was way back on January 22nd when we had the first US case of the coronavirus.  I noted it in our Morning Report saying:

One thing that's distracting everybody at the moment is the Chinese virus scare, with 50% more cases today than there were yesterday (now 470) so no, it's not at all under control.   The US case that panicked our markets yesterday was from a guy who was in China recently and it does seem to be contained (so far). 

In drugstores and at airports, and on the online marketplaces increasingly at the heart of Chinese commerce, fear and confusion manifested themselves in shortages or long lines for suddenly scarce products promising protection from the deadly but still largely mysterious respiratory disease.  Surgical masks flew off shelves, travelers canceled plans and rumors flooded social media.   Drug makers are doing well, travel stocks are doing poorly.  

The very next day, we initiated our first virus hedge because that is what you are supposed to do when you come across economic uncertainty and want to protect your portfolios.  What we didn't count on, however, is that two months later, the US would still be totally unprepared for its own viral epidemic or that our President would spend more time in denial than in meetings about controlling the virus.  Rather than lead us through this crisis, Trump made 33 false claims about the virus in the first two weeks of March alone – he is literally killing people with his bullshit!  

Coronavirus update: Global infections top 500K; US overtakes Italy ...

It is 24 hours later and the US has gone from 69,000 to 85,000 cases in the past 24 hours.  There will be well over 100,000 cases on Monday and 200,000 by the end of next week and, if we are still not getting things together and responding to desperate needs for protective gear in the hospitals and SERIOUS protocols to halt the spread of the virus, the only thing we'll have by Easter (4/12) is 500,000 cases of the virus – almost 10 times what we have on this curent(ish) map.

As you can see from the World Health Organization study above, that means 50,000 people will die though it's hard to imagine how it will be that low considering the US only has about 125,000 respirators in the whole country so, if we can't keep the number of cases below 500,000 (about 25% require hospitalization), we're going to be screwed – no matter how efficient we are at moving supplies and patients around. 

Speaking of inefficiency, our Government apparently has 1.5 MILLION N95 face masks in a warehouse in Indiana but they haven't shipped them where needed because they are past their expiration date DESPITE the CDC saying that they would be fine since the date is fairly arbitrary and simply means the masks should be inspected before use.

Indiana is Mike Pence's home state.  Mike Pence is in charge of our virus response task force.  Do you think it would be possible for you to screw up your job this badly and keep it?   

The real danger here isn't the virus, it's that we might re-elect Team Trump to deal with the aftermath of this crisis and the crisis after this one.  

We're extrapolating some bad numbers here but "only" 50,000 deaths – we had 114,328 people shot by guns last year in the US.  Hell, if we can get some of those NRA lobbyists to work for the Coronavirus, I bet we can bring it back next year stronger than ever.  After all, it is our constitutional right to die of any virus we choose to, isn't it?  

Meanwhile, 50,000 deaths and sadly even 500,000 deaths is survivable by the US Economy – it will carry on without us and, like Trump, won't give the victims a second thought and will simply look for the next way to enrich itself and, last time I checked, getting all remorseful about the dead wasn't very profitable (unless you own a funeral home, of course).  

There are 330,000,000 people in this country and if you take away 500,000 of them, there will be 329,500,000 people in this country so how much do you think that will affect the go-forward GDP?  In that, Trump is right, the "cure" is worse than the disease in terms of economic impact as we are stopping 50% of commerce for 330,000,000 people in order to, HOPEFULLY, save 500,000 lives so the impact each month on our GDP is about $750Bn while the impact of 500,000 dead (0.15%) is just $27.3Bn per year.  

Clinton: 'Please do not take medical advice from a man who looked ...Even if we lose 5 MILLION people to the virus, that's just $273Bn per year so you can understand how a sociopath like President Trump would muse that it simply isn't worth all this effort just to stop some losers from dying, right?  You know Donald Trump doesn't think he can get the virus – just like he thinks he can look into an eclipse without frying his corneas…  

As investors, we do need to think a little bit like Trump and act as if human lives don't matter and simply do the math and calculate the effect of this virus on the economy over the long-term.  In the short-run, you can't stop people from panicking and US having more victims than China is rattling a lot of people who've been buying stocks over the past few days – especially the ones who were believing all the BS on Fox news and the White House Press briefings stating that things were under control.  They are not!  

Still the worst-case scenario is that Trump remains completely ineffective in mustering a response to the virus and the states will be on their own and some will do well and some will do poorly in controlling the spread but at least our Constitution got that right – the states don't have to follow the President – they can do a lot of things on their own and New York and California are already starting to since, clearly, they are getting no help from Washington, DC.  

Have a safe weekend, 

- Phil

 


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  1. So you're saying there's a chance?!?! 


  2.  

    Ignore this user

    Phil / AVGO – I have a 1/3 position on this ( maybe a bit more) looking at the following to add to this.  

    20X Jan '22 $230 ( 55) / 320 ( 22) with a $200 putter at $40 Any feedback on this?  Thanks


  3. The Bug/Phil – what I got wrong was assuming the US would be able to contain the bug, based on past experience with SARS and MERS. Ebola doesn't count, as it has a very low Ro, but SARS and this bug are closely related – even MERS is a corona virus. Not sure whether it's a difference in the bug, in the government, or both. Likely both.


  4. it's a different bug! Way more easily spread than SARS.

    happy to share a study on the genetic make up of the bug- some important differences that could have been there or were lab induced…we don't know YET.


  5. Good Morning.


  6. Sorry, been on calls non stop since 7:00 AM. Will post the big chart later…


  7. Hola everyone. Rejoined after many years. Fun times :)


  8. The Bug/Maya – this is not really the place for discussions. Here's an interesting one, though (a former student of mine is a co-author on the paper they're discussing): https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fpjhpm/transmission_potential_of_sarscov2_in_viral/


  9. Good morning!

    Chance/Potter – Chance for what?  I think there's little chance we go past 5M dead as people will self-quarantine and good luck to landlords collecting the rents when no one will even be delivering the mail anymore.  Trump will be likely be removed from office around 1M dead and 5M takes us to November anyway when the GOP will become the next victim of the virus. 

    AVGO/Batman – So you just bought this?  Nothing wrong with it.  I wouldn't add too many puts – save it for the next 20% correction and make sure you plan to sell short-term calls on a pop.  If that's 1/3 I'd sell 10 of the July $300 calls for $9 ($9,000) and then I'd add 20 more bull spreads ($33) if we go over $275 so you'd be 1/4 covered and then see how those play out.  If AVGO jumps up to $300, you can add 20 more bull call spreads and then sell 10 more short calls at whatever strike you roll the Julys to and you'd still be 2/6 covered after spending net $50,000 (ish) to triple up to a $540,000 spread that would be mostly in the money by then and THEN you could buy back the short puts (or leave them) and sell another 10 short puts to balance the short calls as well and, before you know it – all your new spreads will be paid for.

    Wrong/Snow – You did not take into account how inept this Administration is.  Trump has lied about 20,000 times since taking office (official, provable lies) and we know what kind of "leader" he is.  He can't admit there's a disaster under his watch so he can't act like a disaster is happening or respond to the situation as if it were a disaster because any of those things would be an admission that he is not infallable – so they cover it up and fail to respond.  Pretty predictable overall.  Trump is no different than Kim in Korea in that respect and he surrounds himself with the kind of people who will help him cover up the fact that he pees and poops like a regular person "for the good of the country" – even though he's obviously mentally ill and a great danger to the country.  

    SARS was handed in 2002, under Bush and fortunately we had lot of rapid response people in place as we were just coming down from 9/11 and also Bush, though he was every bit as much of an idiot as Trump, at least didn't try to pretend he knew stuff he didn't know and he allowed actual experts to make decisions in times of crisis:

    March 20
    The U.S. reports its first case.
    March 24
    CDC researchers, working with colleagues in Hong Kong, isolate a coronavirus in SARS patients and begin sequencing its genome and comparing it to other coronaviruses.
    April 16
    One month after collaborative scientific efforts are initiated, scientists announce the cause of SARS is an entirely new corona virus never before observed in humans or animals.
    April 20
    Chinese authorities announce cases are much higher than previously reported. Officials who provided misinformation are removed from office and China cooperates fully with international efforts.
    May 4
    Scientists report the virus can survive on plastic surfaces and in urine and feces, respectively for 48 hours, 24 hours, and 4 days. This information helps healthcare workers and policymakers take additional precautions.
    May 23
    Hong Kong and Guangdong Province are cleared by the WHO as safe for nonessential travel.
    July 5
    Toronto is the last area finally cleared by the WHO as safe for travel, and the outbreak is declared contained.

    Imagine how screwed up this country is now that we can wish George W Bush was in charge!

    Lab-induced/Maya – A bug that kills 10% of the old people on Earth sounds like a GOP dream virus.  Easier than facing the blowback from cutting benefits.  

    Welcome back RN!  You were here during the last crash, right?

    Yesterday's gains are washing away.  

    And, once again, it's not hard to figure out what's driving the market.

    Overall though, we're right where we expected to be – yesterday we overshot the mark but holding the Strong Retrace Line (2,500) is good.  We don't want to replace a ridiculous rally with a ridiculous recovery – we need to build a solid base down here.  


  10. Last here in 2011-12 range, then left the country, traveled around a bit, and now back!


  11. potter  I got it funniest jim carey movie ever. lol


  12. Thanks Tommy!



  13. I wonder what number will shock Trump at this point! Yesterday we found out that he put Jared in charge of getting more ventilators! So this is still a joke it seems.

    How soon can we get the Trump family and sycophants out of this WH?

     

  14. Oil (/CL) $21.40 – I still have my 2 @ $22.50 so I'm doubling down. 


  15. Are we doing anything with Ford (F) ? 

    Tried searching post but futile given the symbol. 


  16. Boris Johnson is now positive!


  17. the eu health minister is also positive


  18. F/Pstas – From the Dividend Portfolio Review:

    F – Bailout!!!!  It's only been 10 years, why shouldn't they get another bailout?  This is one where we should TD so 2,000 more shares at $4.40 ($8,800) and we'll sell 20 2022 $3 calls for $2.20 ($4,400) to cover those but the put target is fine so we leave those.  So we're spending net $4,400 on top of the $5,760 we started with puts us in 3,000 shares of F at net $10,160 so $3.86 and F just paid 0.15 ($150) on 1/29 and next time we get $450 if they don't cut it.  7 x $450 is $3,150 + called away at $15,000 at $5 (ignoring bonus money if we hit $7) is net $7,990 in profits over $5 to pay for the 1,000 shares we get assigned back if we're below $7 – certainly we can live with that, right?  

    You can't argue the science!

    Johnson/StJ, Tommy – Not just positive:

    There is a South Park clip for everything!


  19. Phil-I seldom post anything, but the posts are too much for me not to mention a couple of facts.  There are 529,614 cases worldwide, 23,714 deaths.  The US has 83,545 cases, 1,201 deaths.  The US mortality rate is currently 1.44% and that number is going down each day as more people are tested positive and not dying.  The models that have predicted millions of cases and deaths are proving to be bogus.  The measures that have been implemented will drop new cases dramatically once the initial wave passes that were already infected. The extrapolation of cases is ridiculous and has been proven wrong in country after country,  We will not have hundreds of thousands infected or dead.  


  20. Moody's default rates:

    Our scenario analysis finds that the global default rate would climb to 6.8% in one year in a sharp but short downturn, and to 16.1% under conditions similar to the global financial crisis. In February 2020, the speculative-grade default rate was 3.1%.


  21. rb – With all due respect, you're just someone with just another opinion…..


  22. Phil/SQQQ

    Good morning

    how did you arrive at 22 call for the SQQQ yesterday. (I get how you got to 29). Was that just the current strike? Would you go lower in the long call strike?

    (And I picked up 150 of them at 1.1 and not 1.3)


  23. I certainly hope so RB but I am not hearing much to make me think the US is doing what other countries did to contain the virus.  The virus doesn't naturally stop spreading – it takes an effort to contain it, like fire.  If you just let it burn out of control because other countries that used firefighters and gave them the right equipment were able to contain the fire – then that's simply a false premise.

    The US death rate is doubling every 3 days and we went from 10,000 to 80,000 cases in the past 7 days and it's still accelerating.  So yes, it's great that most of the 70,000 people who were diagnosed in the past 7 days haven't died yet, but they haven't recovered either and if we have another 140,000 by the end of next week – that's going to overwhelm our healthcare system already and 280,000 more by Easter means you will need resurrections to keep that death count below 50,000 over time.

    But, as I keep saying, I'm a numbers guy, not a doctor so I just look at the raw data and whether things are accelerating or slowing down.  So far, I've been right but maybe you know things I don't that aren't showing up in the data.

    Coronavirus: Charts, figures show US on worse trajectory than ...

    SQQQ/Maya – Generally I want to be near the money and then I apply the logic we always apply – that I am willing to roll down $1 for 0.35 but then I have to be getting a similar gain from the short calls too or we begin losing ground.  See – I told you $1.30 was too much!  

    Also, I'm planning ahead.  If we have the $22/31 spread, then we already hit $31 so that's very realistic and 160% of $22 is $35, so well covered by a 20% drop – even allowing for time decay.  Also, if we did the $15/24 hedge – even if it was the same money, you wouldn't feel comfortable selling the $15 calls and leaving the $24s naked but, even at $35, if we feel SQQQ is toppy, we could cash the $22s for $14(ish) and buy a longer-term $30/40 spread for $2(ish) to cover the naked $31 calls in expectations of another pullback.  Like I keep saying – it's chess – you have to plan your next 3 moves before you commit to your first move.


  24. Phil  Fox saying (asking?) for market closure, what your thoughts are?

    Also, perhaps is time to see stocks as  SCI CSV MATW 


  25. im in Canada just over the boarder from buffalo newyork does anyone on here have any idea why trump would want to put military on the Canadian boarder. Im not against the idea or for it but I would like to understand it. Im sure hes aware that people in Canada are pretty happy with our governments reponse and handling of the pandemic so far. Surely he doesn't believe that Canadians want to escape the relative safety here to risk infection in the usa and have no health coverage for hospital. The only reason I can fathom is it has something to do with his support base. Or maybe he wants  to deter uninfected citizens from trying to escape the zombie apocalypse that he was suppose to do his best to protect them from. 


  26. 2 models of the world could arise after all this is over maybe a couple of years.

    Interesting article in FT with Yubal Harari.

    https://www.ft.com/content/19d90308-6858-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75


  27. Phil/SQQQ

    THANKS for the explanation- helps a lot.

    by that logic I should have done the 22/35 spread and  not the one I did (22/29)


  28. USO – I have the 3/6 call spread @2.10. The long $3 call dropped below $2.10 so I rolled out to Oct for $0.15.


  29. Phil/SQQQ

    looking at your advise of getting into the  30/40 SQQQ spread for $2 to cover the short 31 Calls…

    If I understand this correct lets say you have 5 short 31 calls then your will buy 5 30/40 calls spread to cover it….but won't the long and the short side of the BCS cover themselves. How can they cover the short 31 calls. is this something of the PM margin or something or should work for any trading account?

    regards


  30. Tommyt /troops

    Perhaps it is to avoid Americans running out of the country!  lol…

    Now seriously, Taiwan is in Red alert, as its Ukraine, this can get very nasty if things move in the wrong way. 




  31. RB – It takes two weeks on average to die from covid-19 and it takes another week on average to start showing symptoms so the dead people today were infected 3 weeks ago, more or less. So what you have when you compare deaths to current cases while in the middle of the exponential ramp up is a numerator based on where things were three weeks ago and the denominator is based on who is showing symptoms and can get a test through today. The two things aren't really correlated at this point in the game except that cases is exponentially higher than deaths  

    Rush Limbaugh has been pushing the same calculations you're using, and his audience eats it up like he's shitting ice cream and there aren't enough spoons to go around, but it's fallacious. 

    This is not a matter of political opinion, and it doesn't make sense to bury one's head in the sand and defend the indefensible. Trump is fucked up on this issue and has been from the very beginning. And if the country's leaders don't get their heads out of their asses then we will have 100s of thousands of corpses to deal with. 

    And no market closure. I don't care what happens. Let it go to zero. All the weak hands will get flushed out and stocks will go back to their rightful owners – me and whoever else can keep from becoming panicked. 




  32. Phil/SQQQ

    I also picked up 50 of the SQQQ $22/29 calls yesterday ($5.20/3.50) but had to pay $1.7 because the Dow popped at the close as I was selling the $29calls. Now the spread is down about $2k as the $29calls have moved more than the $22c. Would you adjust this now?

    Thx


  33. It's interesting though to consider the vast number of people who are positive, never get tested and recover.  I have 5 friends who all had that happen. 
    I know this increases the infected number but it also massively dilutes the death rate and increases the recovery %


  34. Well said Dawgy!


  35. note the proper handling with the finger OFF the trigger. 

    https://www.reddit.com/r/Frontlineworkers/comments/fpn0z1/taking_things_seriously/


  36. here's a map of how to not take things seriously


  37. Butterfly Portfolio still up 72.8% so we're good there.  

    LTP down 22.5% now at $387,450 and STP still up 374.4% at $474,411 so we're officially not bearish enough in the STP.

    A lot of this is because of this BS in the House where now the Dems have to have a floor vote because some Republican moron made an issue out of remote voting.   Seems like he's callously forcing the Dems to travel so they can vote in person in hopes of wiping out his competition with a virus – sick bastard!  

    Members are now racing to get back to Washington by Friday morning — in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic — because leaders fear that at least one member, likely to be Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., will demand a recorded vote.

    Even Trump is unhappy with him:

    So that's a big factor in play here – aside from the virus numbers getting very frightening.

    Market closure/Advill – Would have been smart before the crash but now it would create a situation in which only rich people (like us) who have the resources to take advantage of these low prices with fresh money will prosper and they'd reopen the market to an epic gap up that would deny the participation of pretty much anyone outside the Top 1%.   

    There's a good amount of interest in an income-producing Hedge Fund so continue to contact Greg (at philstockworld dot com) and please let him know how much you can invest right away as the whole point is to take advantage of these prices BEFORE they shut down the market or before it recovers too much – in the very least (see yesterday's chat for more details).

    Border/Tommy – He's a psychopath playing to his base.  They love this kind of stuff.  Blame Canada, blame Mexico – Trump is infallible so we can't blame him and he's willing to waster resources idiotically in order to keep up that pretense.  

    2 Models/Tommy – Way too many variables for that kind of prognostication.  

    SQQQ/Maya – Not a huge difference, the money you save helps pay for the next spread you layer on. 

    USO/Dave – If we aren't back over $40 by July ($9 on USO), then the industry is in BIG TROUBLE.  

    SQQQ/Pat – Well, for one thing, if SQQQ is at $35 and you cash the $22 calls for $14 – the $14 CASH!!! is now a hedge on the short $31 calls, right?  Then you take $2 of that $14 to add a $10 spread that's in the money against the short $31s so now you have $12 CASH!!! and a $10 spread covering the short $31 calls.  So that's $22 of upside protection and SQQQ would have to hit $51 before you chew up your gains (assuming you can't roll the short $31s, which you can and assuming you didn't spend $2 more on another $10 of protection like you are supposed to on the way up).  

    Since $51 is 130% higher than $22, the Nasdaq would have to be down another 40%, back below 5,000 before you get burned and, if you believe that is going to happen – why bother hedging – just cash out and go short!  

    And what Dawg said!  

    SQQQ/Wing – You have to ignore the current prices and just focus on if you are on or off track.  If the Nas stays down, then $25 is $3 in the money and the spread is worth $15,000 – end of story.  Is $15,000 enough to cover your long losses at that level is what you should focus on.  As I noted above, the STP is not very bearish at this point but a lot of that comes from the same silly pricing you are seeing.  

    Anyway, if you bought $50 for $1.70 (terrible price) for $8,500 and now they are $6,500 ($1.30) maybe buy more to lower the basis?  You should never overpay like that.  If the market goes lower (like now) your longs go deeper in the money and lose premium while the short calls go up – so the hedge gets cheaper.  If the market goes higher – you didn't need the hedge!  So there is no situation in which it makes sense to overpay for the hedge!  

    Phantom recoveries/Potter – Yes, that's the narrative Fox and Friends are pushing.  Dear leader is right because most people have mild cases and anyone you know who had the flu now had Corona virus and they're fine.  The same can be said for the common flu – how many people get mild symptoms, take and Advil and go on with their lives?  This isn't about playing word games or playing with numbers – there is NO COMPARISON between COV-19 and a "normal" virus.  It is spreading very fast and it's very deadly and if we allow it to spread like the common flu – I'm sure 100M Americans will only have mild cases but the 20M who have serious symptoms will be keeping up that 10% death rate although I don't know where you are going to have 5M hospital beds and 2.5M respirators for the more serious cases.  

    WTF BDC – How can there be that many planes still flying?

    That is un-f'ing believable!  If just one infected person is going somewhere it's a crime but this thing shows 1,500 planes in the air (top left) so even if only 1% have virus carriers – that's 15 planes infecting new areas and 15 airports that become new hot zones.  MADNESS!


  38. Phil, are you personally invested in the current hedge fund?


  39. Phil as of last report the existing hedge fund did not have enough invested to more than cover expenses.  Why not ask those investors if they want to switch that fund to the dividend fund and then bring in more there?  At the very least the dividend fund should not be opened until there is enough commitment to make it profitable after expenses.


  40. I'll just add that the rate of infected/dead is extremely difficult to keep track of as this evolves. The commentary here illustrates that. 

    The death rate, can and will skyrocket if we do nothing. Of course, we are doing something, the big question is whether that is enough to stop the rate of spread. Areas where the outbreak is endemic and spreading in the community are suggesting that what was done and is being done isn't enough at the moment. 

    I will say, the only thing many are leaving out is the possibility of treatment being identified. There are trials underway, but if this starts to blow up uncontrollably it is conceivable that anything with merit would be fast tracked for use in the real world. Not saying that would be good, or even happen, but it would certainly change the trajectory of this if it were to occur.  I'm optimistic that we will identify a treatment agent soon, but in the meantime we need to continue mitigating spread aggressively.  So far, we are not doing a great job of that. 


  41. Phantom recoveries/Potter – no, they are not positive if they have not had a test. Positive means positive test result.


  42. The Bug – it seems like any comment on the bug reflects a partisan position. This place is better than most, though.

    It reminds me of the time Mike Osterholm handled an outbreak of hemolytic uremic syndrome in little kids caused by toxigenic e. coli. It initially appeared (because people don't understand denominators) that certain large chain daycare centers were the problem. Mike ran the numbers, came up with an attributable risk of 4% for aforesaid large daycare centers (meaning large daycare centers were responsible for 4% of the outbreak). Meanwhile local (Minneapolis/St. Paul) media were calling for large daycare centers to be shut down. Mike did not, and laid out his reasons. Instead, he tightened inspections, did education, and got the sick kids (by positive test) to stay home. He took a lot of flack, was accused of being in the pocket of the large chain daycare centers, but the outbreak stopped.


  43. Phil / AVGO – thanks for the feedback  Question 

    BCS '22 230 / 320 I executed this ( a bit better spread price)  this am) shat do you mean by add 20 more of the bull spread (33) ? see below

    from Phil  Nothing wrong with it.  I wouldn't add too many puts – save it for the next 20% correction and make sure you plan to sell short-term calls on a pop.  If that's 1/3 I'd sell 10 of the July $300 calls for $9 ($9,000) and then I'd add 20 more bull spreads ($33) if we go over $275 so you'd be 1/4 covered and then see how those play out.  


  44. Phil/MJ

    Pot sector showing signs of life. Is this MJ position worth reviving?

    10 MJ '21 $20calls ($6.53)

    -5 MJ '21 $30puts ($5.87)

    Thx



  45. Hedge Fund/Palotay – My money is in PSW Investments, which owns the fund.  I don't invest outside of PSW Investments to avoid conflicts.  

    Hedge Fund/Tangled – If we have enough interest, of course people can switch but the regular hedge fund is very likely to double up or better if we recover – I'm proposing a more conservative fund for people like me, who are having to help their parents whose monthly incomes no longer cover expenses from their standard retirement accounts.  It's a lot easier for me to put $250,000 into the following spread than give my Mom $30,000 a year to subsidize her:

    • Buy 500 T 2022 $23 calls for $7.75 ($387,500) 
    • Sell 500 T 2022 $30 calls at $3.60 ($180,000) 
    • Sell 100 T 2022 $23 puts for $3 ($30,000) 
    • Sell 100 T June $30 puts for $2.30 ($23,000) 
    • Sell 50 T June $23 puts for $1 ($5,000) 

    So that's net $149,500 out of pocket and my worst case is owning 10,000 shares of T for $23 ($230,000 – not counting the short-term puts) and I've got a $350,000 spread that's spitting out $28,000 in "dividends" for the Q so it should well cover the $7,500 my Mom needs while still a lovely investment for me that will hopefully pay 200% in 2 years.  

    Of course it would be much better to have 20 diverse bets like that but it would all have to be actively manged and actively hedged so it's a case where you do want someone whose job it is to manage those trades full-time.  That's my logic to setting up a new fund – I talk to a lot of people who are trying to support their families and this is a nice solution to that problem.  

    Doing enough/Jeff – As someone who lives in Florida and just saw thousands of kids on the beaches last weekend – I'd say we aren't doing enough yet.  Those kids all got in planes and went home through airports after the finally closed the beaches on Tuesday (still not all).  We are not getting clear messaging from the President or Health Officials as they are all scared of angering the President and, though I would have put my foot down if my daughters said they were going to crowded beaches – they are both still hanging out with their friends, which is less than ideal.  

    A treatment would be nice but the false hopes of a miracle cure coupled with the false rumors of teenage invulnerability to the virus (which doesn't do us old folks any good if they give it to us) is keeping the spread alive for the moment and that's the REALITY of the situation.  

    If it were up to me, all streaming shows or YouTube videos would begin and end with Virus Information Commercials that can't be skipped, forcing ignorant kids (and Fox viewers) to be exposed to real prevention warnings and information on a constant basis.  

    And what Snow said!  

    AVGO/Batman – I mean you are scaling in so you should have certain trigger levels.  So let's say you sell a 1/3 cover now, with AVGO at $240 and sell 1/3 May $270s for $11.  So if AVGO goes over $260, you want to add another 1/3 to the long spreads as they are more in the money and that then reduces your cover to 1/6 and then, when you are ready, you sell more calls at higher strikes to get back to 1/3 cover.  That way, you will always be in position to profit from a pullback as you build up your long position.  

    MJ/Wing – Thank goodness that sector is going strong.  Very good for PSW Investments.  Hopefully you sold some short calls which you bought back as the 2021 $20s are now 0.65 and the $30 puts are now $18 on the long side, it would just be a new trade but, on the put side, the 2022 $15 puts are $5.50 and you are down $12ish so you can roll down to 2x of those without increasing your exposure but still dropping your strike 50% so that's automatic.  If you go to 3x you can still make a profit if all goes well but, given a choice, I'd rather put the money/margin into the 2022 $10 ($4.50)/15 ($2.50) bull call spreads at $2 as those pay +150% while short puts can only pay 100% at the same strike.

    A bit expensive for 1/2 ounce, BDC but very pretty.


  46. Bullion / BDC – Did you notice how many of these  coins are out of stock now?


  47. USL looks like a much better oil trade than USO as it does not have the same level of decay.  But it has really low volume.   That seems odd to me.


  48. sold 4 June IWM 105/140 call spreads.


  49. Well, I went and got my poke bowl for lunch, just a normal Friday around here.  Other than the town being completely abandoned, of course.  


  50. dawg-I understand your point, but I do not believe the exponential infections have continued.  As you said, the people dying today were infected about three weeks ago.  That was before all of the measures to prevent spread were taken.  Thus, I feel we may have a few more days of the numbers increasing and then a significant drop-off of new cases.  The numbers are increasing not because new people are being infected, but because those infected two or three weeks ago are now showing symptoms and being tested. I am basing this on the information that has come from other countries experience and explained by Dr. Birx and others.  I do not listen to Rush, never have. Obviously, there will be some new cases and certain hotspots will have problems.  But the rest of the US should be fine.  I would not expect the number of deaths to be significant in US. There is not a specific drug to treat, but doctors are using several drugs throughout the US and having success treating people.  Many are even using the drug that Trump is being attacked for mentioning. 


  51. Gators roaming the streets yet?


  52. fox viewer….


  53. BDC – Sorry for IWM; Did you sell 105 Call and Buy $140 Calls? What's the rationale? Thanks.


  54. Tomorrow I am looking forward to walking a mile to the beach while listening to Quadrophenia blasting on my headphones. I used to do this when I was in England in the winter as it’s a perfect album for abandoned beaches.  Should be extra creepy on an abandoned beach in 90° weather.   

    Come sleep on the beach
    Keep within my reach
    I just want to die with you near
    I'm feeling so high with you here
    I'm wet and I'm cold
    But thank God I ain't old
    Why didn't I say what I mean?
    Nothing is planned, by the sea and the sand

  55. House approves the bill!


  56. I guess that is already priced in.  Of course there is still the Senate.


  57. No, that was it. Unless Trump fails to sign it’s a done deal. 


  58. Ah, now the market is moving a little


  59. Now we will see how much of that sell off was because of the virus cases or just because people were thinking the bill would not get signed.  


  60. Speaking of that bill in the Senate, how ridiculous was that when Graham and a couple other jackasses were objecting to the unemployment measures because some people might make a couple more dollars by staying home. No objections to billionaires getting another million or so though… But small people getting $100 extra, can't have that.


  61. was there anyone really thinking it wouldn't go through


  62. Phil – did you say if we don't get 2700 (SB) today – we should prepare for another leg down?


  63. vkat_mn – yes, I sold the 105's and bought the 140's. I would have sold the 105's naked but my brokerage doesn't let me, so I pick some cheap far out instead. The premise is by June IWM is at or below 105 and the net was 15.32-1.18 = 14.14 per share, so I'd keep that if IWM goes down and then remains flat or below 105.


  64. I'm predicitng this weekend is nothing but bad news and the FAKE market rally is finally behind us. Boy was I sure wrong this week and was stuck in an ugly QQQ short call position I still need to deal with. It's showing -$4,200 right now, ug. 


  65. Phantom virus 

    I would agree that fox is pushing a narrative, their objective clearly to reduce the perceived severity of a situation trump is mishandling.

    Honestly I think the best thing I've heard was from Cuomo – he said hospitalizations is the number to watch. People test, they don't test, they recover at home, that's one pool of people.  It's truly what % of people go to the hospital, what % need the ICU, and what % die and who makes it out.  
     





  66. Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research


  67. Famines


  68. GM’s Ventilator Effort Goes Haywire With Trump Turning on Barra



  69. Being in Spain in Barcelona in my apartment for 14 days (and another 16 coming) I´m amazed by the market reaction in N.Y.

    The unemployed at the end of April will be perhaps the highest since WW2, all restaurants, airlines, malls, and shops are closed and the market is -3%.

    The amount of infected in the U.S.next Friday will perhaps be equivalent to all the world infections, but what surprises me more is that you gays in this chat don´t look alarmed, what part is missing for me?


  70. SQQQ/Phil

    Could you give some more guidance how to manage the SQQQ spreads .. it seems that whichever way the market goes, the spread goes further in the red. Should we be looking to exit if the market goes up or should we hold closer to the expiry, or should we roll something .. or should some of us stay away from SQQQ  ;)

    Thx


  71. Advill,

    Besides Phil's comment this morning I think they have not yet a clue, Well ahead is the clown,

    I think it is freightning to have such a leader at this time.


  72. So I have interests in several movie theaters and restaurants.  For some locations the landlords are willing to deal but some not at all.  Not sure where they think new tenants will come from.  For the theaters the govt money may enable them to survive if not shut down more than 4 or 5 months.  But that also assumes this is not repeated before there is a treatment or vaccine.  The restaurants are lost.  This could still get a lot worse if businesses are not willing to spread the pain.


  73. Every time I want to leave a comment I am bounced out and says Phil's site is not secure!!!! What now?


  74. Mybe the owner of PSW is brutally writing the thruth


  75. WOW – Now a condom shortage.  Maybe people should start reusing them?

    https://news.trust.org/item/20200327110340-jfjpz


  76. Well, Yodi, I hope I´m wrong, perhaps the strategy of U.S  is different and can cope with it in a different way, after all the way U.S. cities and suburbs are means that naturally, the human contact is not as intense as Europe or Asia, perhaps this urbanism is playing in favor of U.S and make it different there.

    I hope I´m wrong because my money is in U.S Stock, but anyway is too much at risk.


  77. Condom shortage  LOL   There will be so many kids born in 9 months! :)


  78. Advill in my opinion they should freeze the market for a while. But as long as the do not have enough dead bodies at the exchange an the brokers, they will still send you margin calls.


  79. Website of the day https://brrr.money/


  80. Here is a good article about what China did to control the epidemic. Many methods are too Draconian for the US. They started very early because of the SARS and MERS viruses before. Also they had the systems and manpower to track almost every infected person and their contacts. 

    https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-coronavirus-quarantines-other-countries-arent-ready-2020-3


  81. Phil – is the dollar gonna be in a free fall because the deal is now signed? Are there other factors?


  82. there's $4T in fresh currency that needs to come into stocks in some way but still this market going up is relentless and nonsensical. I just moved my short calls out a week this is unsustainable.


  83. Graham/StJ – Hell is going to have to add a wing for these guys.

    Anyone/Coulter – Apparently a lot of people were. As to 2,700, that was the strong bounce line and we topped out at 2,634 yesterday but we're holding 2,500, which is the strong retracement off the strong bounce so inconclusive so far.  I'm actually happy if we consolidate down here and take a  few weeks to go higher but that will be a gut-wrenching few weeks.  As it stands, not enough evidence to get more bearish in the STP yet.

    That's OK BDC, I was too bullish on /CL:

    Hospitalizations/Potter – Definitely, that's where the budgetary rubber meets the road – in human cost as well.  

    IMAX up and down as China opens and closes theaters:

    Alarm/Advill – Well, there's 330M people in the country and 94,000 infected (yes, up 9,000 since this morning!) so it's 0.03% or 3/10,000 people infected – that's not enough to make it readily apparent in your social group unless you live in NYC – where you probably know people directly who are infected.  

    Outside of NY (where 1/3 of the cases are) it's more like 1/10,000 – you are more likely to know someone who has been shot this year than has coronavirus.  Cancer, heart attacks – much more likely than Corona so very hard to get people to worry – especially when the President doesn't take it seriously and Fox (where half the country gets it's news) doesn't take it seriously and the Conservative Media (80% of the media) doesn't take it seriously.    It's the same reason you can't get Americans to care about Global Warming, which is considered a dire, species-threatening event to the rest of the World – it's a poorly-educated, poorly-informed public which is being constantly counterprogrammed (brain-washed) by special interests that make money off the destruction of the World and even the people.  

    CHARLES KOCH NETWORK PUSHED $1 BILLION CUT TO CDC, NOW ATTACKS SHELTER-IN-PLACE POLICIES FOR HARMING BUSINESS

    AFP’s position, which directly contradicts the advice of medical experts who say that social isolation is essential to curbing the spread of the coronavirus, comes after the group lobbied the Trump administration in 2018 to rescind $1 billion from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 

    The libertarian advocacy network has spent tens of millions of dollars lobbying for corporate tax cuts, deregulation, and reductions to social welfare programs, particularly state Medicaid programs.

    SQQQ/Wing – It's a hedge, not a bet.  You manage it by not staring at it constantly.  You are HOPEFULLY going to lose 100% of that money as things get back to normal in June – that's when you know it went well.  It's like calling your life insurance broker to see how dead you are every day…

    Restaurants/Tangled – Hopefully you get breaks on the rent and loans work out (remains to be seen).  If I were a restaurant now, I'd set up my own delivery service that doesn't gouge the consumers (or the restaurants) and deliver healthy, comfort meals featuring immunity-boosting ingredients.  Things that can be put in the fridge and re-heated or eaten cold.  Also, if you can deliver essentials like paper towels and toilet paper – that would be a big winner. 

    Secure/Pirate – Please contact Greg and let him know what browser (version, etc) you are using.  Might be some kind of certificate issue but I'm not seeing it in Chrome.  

    Condoms/Dano – Well what else do we have to do?

    I like the soundtrack Ati.

    Tracking/Tx – We can do that on people's phones.  Hell, the NSA still does it anyway…  When I rent a scooter in LA, it shuts off the moment I cross a street into a no scooter zone so don't tell me they can't track people who have phones within 100 feet!  If they can do that, they can also vector all your contracts over any period of time – that is what China did.  You would think Conservatives would like that idea because they get to "LOCK THEM UP"!!!!

    China Is Literally Dragging People Out Of Their Homes And Sending ...

    That was 34,914 cases and 724 deaths – they stopped at 81,000 cases and 3,000 deaths.  Now it's starting to seem like a good idea, right?

    Dollar/Akrum – Not really because everyone else is doing it too.  

    Euro may not even survive this thing.  

    Professor Malinen: The Euro Won’t Survive This Crisis

    Yes, I just said that!  

    300% in debt?  

    Prime Minister is infected!

    Didn't their whole country just burn down and now they have the virus?  

    Without Lord of the Rings sequels – what's left to drive their economy?

    Market gathering momentum now – it takes more than a day to put $4Tn into equities BDC…

    Again guys, it's just math – where else is $6Tn going to end up?


  84. agreed, but does $6T make up for the earnings loss? That's really the net question the market needs to figure out. The $6T coming in is now a known number, but how does 6-8 maybe 12 weeks of literally almost no one going to work in the service industry change the game?


  85. It changes earnings and it changes balance sheets but will it ultimately re-price forward earnings is the question?  If I think VIAC  is going to make $2Bn next year (they made $3Bn last year), even after taking a $1Bn or $2Bn loss this year, do I care what they did in the past?  Given a tepid investing environment balanced with 0% bond rates, I have to be willing to pay 15x on earnings (6% on my money) so $30Bn, which is $35/share on VIAC and it's currently $12.75 ($8Bn) so I buy VIAC and wait for the idiots to stop panicking.

    I go through the Dow components and the Top 20 S&P components (40% of the index) and the top 20 Nasdaq components (more than 50%) and if they are all that undervalued – then the indexes are undervalued regardless of the current PRICE and regardless of all these idiotic scenarios people keep dreaming up.  

    The World was going to end in 2000, 2001, 2008 and now in 2020 and I hear the same nonsense every time.  This time it's a virus and not a dot com crash or terrorism or a banking crisis – it's always something – maybe aliens next time! 


  86. well that escalated rather quickly


  87. Wow, huge seller into the close.

    Still not derailing the week, however.

    I'm torn as we should play more bearish below 2,450 but I get the impression the bears are winning due to panic on our number spike, which is partly due to more testing (like China had) and some very nasty extrapolations.  Things should calm down over the weekend – even if the numbers do keep getting worse.  And, of course, the weekend should put $6,000,000,000,000 into some sort of perspective.


  88. Have a lovely weekend folks!

    - Phil


  89. Best week since 1938!   

    Sure doesn’t feel like it…


  90. Phil / AVGO – thanks for the explanation -   Have a great weekend


  91. Phil//  I had invested in PSW Investments.  Does it hold part of the new hedge fund "income-producing Hedge Fund'

    Thanks.


  92. We hit 100,000 2 days early. Death toll up by 17% today. And the day isn't over. We'll be at 140,000 by Monday, unless RB is right and this thing peaks real soon. I hope so but I don't think so. 

    I'm still sticking to 4,000 dead next Friday and 10,000 the Friday after. And if that happens I think the market is going to hit freefall even with the $6T and I really want to find a way to direct some of that stimulus into my pocket. Sadly the government decided that I'm not worthy to receive the stimulus check, having paid far more than my share of taxes last year. 


  93. Local hospital update (NNJ): 10 died today and the day isn't over yet.  Was two yesterday and one the day before.  Still lacking PPE and no deliveries in sight.  

    They should do a full work up including a genome sequencing for every patient to help determine why some die and others have little problem (it isn't always age or comorbidity).   That would cost money, though, and our healthcare system is for profit.  


  94. I think bears are playing the 154 standard deviation on unemployment numbers, not CV cases.

    The actual CV case count is less irrelevant. As dawgdaddy pointed out, and you also in the morning post calculations, economically speaking CV washing through the population is not all that bad. It's callous, but (strictly economically speaking):

    1) deaths occur almost 92% in people over 60 (and 79% in people over 70), who are mostly retired, drawing on pensions and social security, using Medicare, wile not contributing materially or significantly to the economy. They are spending on vacations and such but when they pass their estate goes to a younger generation that puts it to work much faster, and the entitlements go to 0.

    2) The death rate significantly skews towards people with comorbidities and health problems, who are more expensive from a health care perspective.

    With that said, and remaining economically callous, the net benefit of the coronavirus if we approached it from an economic Hand of God perspective  (just let it run wild), would be to explode the markets higher. This is Trump's preferred mechanism to the problem. Other GOP agree as can be seen by the Texas Lt Gov's comments and the conservative media/blogoshpere in general.

    The real consideration for the economy is not the virus but the response. The factors in trying to reprice stocks now are 1) the deep and widespread economic loss from enforcing business closure and social distancing which is occurring worldwide versus 2) trillions in helicopter money. A wild card is the announcement of cure/vaccine. However, 1 versus 2 is what the market is trying to price, IMO. With that said, I think the market is wildly overpriced. A 20-30% retrace was largely forecasted in absence of an international calamity, due to the 11 year bull market run, high CAPE ratios and wealth inequality returning to 1929 levels (among many other indicators). The situation now is much more serious. There are very real and probabilistic risks of systemic failures from everything up to and including govenrment bonds and currency itself.

    It is worth noting that overall, the case fatality rate (3-5%) is high but not the infection fatality rate (IFR), which appears to be more like <1%. The difference between the two accounts for people that a) don't get tested because their symptoms remain mild, b) catch it but are asymptomatic, and c) don't really catch it or have some type of natural immunity. For example, I've never had the "regular flu" in my adult life, and that is definitely very widespread and extremely common. It is important to note the IFR will rise compared to the CFR if hospitals exceed maximum capacity because sick patients who otherwise could've recovered will not have access to care (preventative care, ICU, ventilators, etc), and especially including those folks under 50 who are surviving specifically due to said care. This is one of the reasons States are enforcing social distancing and attempting to "flatten the curve." From this perspective, the case count matters because the hospital bed and ventilator numbers are largely fixed, and trump seem uninterested in the flatten the curve mechanism or he would be ordering DPA and responding with similar fervent Federal productivity that was seen from the Chinese and South Koreans. 

    As an investor, we're watching the Feds provide a solution to a problem that doesn't exist: the governors are closing down business and the feds are using a financial tool that promotes business. The business still has to be open for this to work. What's a $1B loan going to do for a company that can't sell anything? It's totally nonsensical.

    Airliens are still open for business and no one is flying. So here's where we really are: what the people want. The people want the economy to "be OK" but each person doesn't want to get sick. So they stay home, no school, no restaurants, no flying. What we're seeing from the government is the States (governors) are matching what the people ultimately want, and the Feds are not. So in this case, political statement or not, Trump and the Feds are the ones pursuing the wrong strategy.


  95. BDC – Trump by far does not represent many, many conservatives. That he has the support he does in the party is ultimately thanks to one person – Nancy Pelosi. 


  96. Please Dawgy… He had support from them before Pelosi became speaker! He has their support thanks to Fox and other conservative outlets that are threatening GOP politicians with primaries if they don't stick to the Dear Leader message. They are scared of the base that they spent years whipping into a frenzy!


  97. I think the issue with the coronavirus epidemic (barring some effective drug treatment) is how protracted its going to.  Japan, which has been able to "flatten the curve" for the past month is starting to ramp up in its new case numbers.  We just had our first 100 case day yesterday.  What happened is people got complacent and started going about their regular lives and BAM it started to spread again.  Why?  Because we don't have tests and asymptomatics are gonna spread it.  

    We've already been semi-quarantining for a full month now and its done a number on our economy and NOW we're probably going to have to go into full lockdown mode.  For how long? When is this going to end? Its honestly soul-crushing.  


  98. Oh and we still have regular flights coming in from the U.S. *SMH*


  99. How about some puts and calls on spy 


  100. I saw this on Facebook.  We have several doctors here at PSW   If true, its very sad

     

    #CleavonMDjournal

    3/27/2020
    NYC 25,399 cases, 450 deaths

    Title: You would never know

    Today, I was off from work, so I took a 3-mile run. I’ve learned in the past, that if I don’t exercise then I get very emotional, burned out and depressed. It’s unrealistic to believe every person in NYC will stay inside the house 24 hours a day, especially since there are 8.4 million people in NYC. Luckily for us, the stay-at-home order permits New Yorkers to go outside to walk their dog, exercise etc – as long as you don’t congregate and practice social distancing of 6 feet.

    As I ran down riverside park in the 70-degree weather, I smiled at people walking their dogs, pushing baby strollers and also running. You would never know that a virus was overtaking New York City, unless you worked in the hospital.

    Day and night ambulance sirens alarm through the streets. Sirens give me PTSD. It seems like I am the only one that notices though. I went to get groceries at Foodtown but there were so many people in the store that I walked out. I have a greater chance of getting coronavirus in the store than in the hospital. Other stores have taken a more serious approach and limited the number of people in the store, thereby reducing the spread of disease.

    How can a virus be everywhere and nowhere?

    180 people tested positive on Rikers Island – 100 prisoners, 80 corrections staff. Do prisoners have adequate access to hospitals? As ventilators decrease, will we as a society be forced to make ethical decisions as to which prisoners warrant advanced critical care?

    11% of the NYPD workforce called out sick yesterday – 2,563 police officers. These officers will be out for at least 2 weeks, with more to call out sick as well.

    Even our own colleagues are dying, such as 48 year-old Mount Sinai West emergency room nurse Kious Kelly. Across NYC, resident physicians are fearful, because attendings from all services have been admitted to the ICUs. Every time, we see each other in the hospital they ask, “How is it in the ED?”

    Every day I’m hopeful that the volume will decrease. I am deceived by the morning. I walk past an empty waiting room, through triage area and into the emergency room. “How was the night shift?” I ask. My coworkers respond, “High Acuity!, so many patients intubated!”

    I walked into another intubation yesterday, which has become the new normal. As expected, anesthesia had to create TWO intubation teams because the number of patients needing to be intubated remains unprecedented.

    After I signed in, I went into the trauma bay to ensure supplies were restocked for critical patients. I walked towards the oxygen flowmeter to ensure the ambubags were attached, when I suddenly felt chills down my spine. Have you ever been alone and felt like there someone watching you? No one was in the room, at least I thought. Behind a curtain, there was gurney with a dead body draped in a white sheet – an ominous sign of things to come.

    My day began with a cardiac arrest from coronavirus. After I pronounced the patient dead, I talked to his daughter.

    Hi, I’m Dr. Gilman
    I’m sorry to tell you that your father passed away – (I paused because I got déjà vu)
    Please give us 30 minutes to prepare the body.

    I met her and her brother in the waiting room. This was the second time she found one of her parents’ dead. What could I say to that? I’m so sorry this must be so difficult for you. I made it a priority to be in the moment. To slow down and listen.

    “It was the coronavirus, wasn’t it?” she said

    “It probably was – the virus is everywhere and it’s making people really sick, really fast,” I said.

    I’m always honest with my patients, no matter how bad the news may be. I’ve found over the years that patients appreciate that approach.

    “How did this happen? He was fine yesterday. He lives on his own and takes care of himself” she said

    Later that day she got closure that her father indeed had died from coronavirus.

    The coronavirus is changing how we practice medicine. No more non-emergent MRIs in the emergency room. No more questionable admissions for a slightly elevated troponin or slightly elevated creatinine. Today, we send patients home with multifocal pneumonias if their oxygen saturation is within normal limits. We hold off on intubating patients if they are holding their oxygen saturations on full non-rebreather. In fact, we may be even holding off on intubating patients if they are hypoxemic but NOT in respiratory distress. We are truly in a war zone!

    I called anesthesia to intubate a patient yesterday that was 80 years old. I asked the anesthesiologist how his family was doing because my fiancée is terrified every day. His wife was also having a very difficult time seeing him put in harm’s way every day. Our conversation, was broken up by a crashing patient.

    It was a 50 year old healthy man gasping to breathe on 6L of nasal canula. We called out for a non-rebreather and intubation medications – rocuronium, etomidate, phenylephrine drip, propofol, versed, and fentanyl. As we ran towards the room, a voice yelled out, “That’s my husband!, That’s my husband! What’s going on?”

    “Mam, your husband is very sick from the coronavirus and may need a breathing tube.”
    “Oh my god! Oh my god! I gave it to him!,” she cried.

    His wife was also a patient in the emergency room. She had a fever and a cough for one week, before her husband began to show symptoms. His course was much more severe than hers. Why? No-one knows for sure.

    I followed up on him today. The coronavirus test we sent on him was NEGATIVE! There is NO WAY this man does not have coronavirus. You don’t need a test to tell you that a patient has coronavirus, because they will be so hypoxic. Thankfully the inpatient team ordered another coronavirus test, which was POSITIVE! As expected! There is a high false negative rate with the coronavirus swabs.

    I was pleased to see that he’s still fighting strong and not intubated. Sadly, the young woman I admitted a few days ago only requiring nasal canula oxygen is now fighting for her life in the intensive care unit.

    I’ll leave you with this.

    The statistics are grossly under reported. Deaths are much higher – I tried to report two deaths yesterday and was on the phone for a half an hour before I grew frustrated and hung up the phone. I have to treat patients, I can’t sit on the phone for that long. Later I had one of the physician assistants call and she was on hold for an hour and still could not report a death.

    Were these deaths counted?
    Are prehospital deaths counted?
    Are prehospital deaths being swabbed for the coronavirus?

    I’ve been swabbing all cardiac arrests and deaths. And guess what? They are ALL positive for the coronavirus.

    Lastly, I’ve stopped drinking alcohol for the past 3 weeks. I run 4 times a week to keep my body in the best shape possible. My advice to the public is STRENGTHEN your body! Don’t drink. Don’t smoke! and continue to exercise. Give your body the best chance it has to fight the virus, if you get infected.

    I love you all and thank you for the support! We will get through this together!

    Video: People stand outside a grocery store in my community Washington Heights. Multiple ambulances bring patients to emergency rooms across the city.

    http://www.cleavonmd.com/journal

    #CleavonMDjournal


  101. Business

    Rhode Island Police to Hunt Down New Yorkers Seeking Refuge

    Cars stopped, homes to be checked to enforce quarantines

    Officers halt cars on the interstate to start the crackdown             

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/rhode-island-police-to-hunt-down-new-yorkers-seeking-refuge?srnd=premium

    I can envision a case where , If you've been infected and survived you are issued one color arm band and if not, then you are forced to wear a different color, kind of like pre Nazi WWII.  Never thought this is how it all starts.  Just a crazy thought on a Saturday afternoon. 


  102. stockbern:  China has an app on your smartphone that tracks your body temperature and health status and you need to show it before you go into any store or public building.  Its dystopian, but thats how the 2020 equivalent of Nazi armbands.


  103. 664,608 and 124,377 of those cases are in the US with 2,000 deaths, still 1/3 of those in NYC.  

    Italy has 92,472 and 10,000 deaths – there were about three weeks ahead of us in getting hit with the virus.  France and England have great medical systems and they have 38,000 and 17,000 infections and 2,300 and 1,000 deaths so don't fool yourself with happy talk from the media – this thing is killing about 10% of the people who are infected by the time you get to an outcome.

    Globally, there are only 140,156 recoveries (1,100 in the US) and 30,846 deaths – that's 5% of identified cases but 22% of outcomes so 10% may be optimistic!  

    For some reason Trump has decided NYC area does not need to be on lock-down as the virus rages out of control.  This is what's going on in NJ:

     

    Last night, Ewing Township Police broke up a party with 47 people – including a DJ – crammed into a 550-square foot apartment. The organizer was charged, as they should have been and deserved to be.

    This is not a game. Stay home. Be smart.

     

    Can’t believe I have to say this at all, let alone for the second time. But here we are.



    NO CORONA PARTIES. They’re illegal, dangerous, and stupid.



    We will crash your party. You will pay a big fine. And we will name & shame you until EVERYONE gets this message into their heads.

    Jackie had an epic party just last year with a good 100 people at the house.  The police came to that one too but it wasn't her friends that were causing problems – it was people from the other HS trying to crash the party.  That was fun for me to deal with….

    PSWI/Rookie – We will hold part of the new fund.  It's likely to remain under the umbrella of the original fund as a separate portfolio.

    Checks/Dawg – Yes, that is very annoying but at least my kids get theirs (I think).  I think there's a good business in helping people navigate the red tape to get business loans etc as the Government will be distributing $1-2Tn to small businesses.

    Unemployment/BDC – The front page of the times made it very clear:

    Flights/Kinki – That is mindblowing.  Not just the US but other countries and in and out of NY, where there are rumors that 28% of the people are infected (if so, mostly mild but still carriers).  It does seem like the G20 are using this as population control and don't have a real interest in stopping the virus from spreading – not much else makes sense in their actions.  

    Doctors/Stock – Sounds like a lot of horror stories I'm hearing but most of the country is not getting slammed like NY – so far.


  104. Russian State Oil Company Rosneft, in Sudden Move, Sells Assets in Venezuela






  105. The Curve Is Not Flat Enough




  106. Totally normal behavior from the POTUS:

    https://www.vox.com/2020/3/27/21197647/governor-michigan-trump-supplies-coronavirus-briefing

    During his press briefing on Friday, Trump said he directed the official running the White House’s response effort, Vice President Mike Pence, to not call Inslee and Whitmer — even as hospitals in each of their states approach the point of being overwhelmed by coronavirus cases — because they aren’t “appreciative” enough of his efforts.

    “I tell him — I mean I’m a different type of person — I say, ‘Mike, don’t call the governor in Washington, you’re wasting your time with him. Don’t call the woman in Michigan,’” Trump said. “If they don’t treat you right, I don’t call.”

    People are dying and he cares about the way he is being treated! Not sociopathic at all…


  107. And they had a deal with GM and Ventec but backed out at the last minute because they were worried about cost and having possibly too many ventilators:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/us/politics/coronavirus-ventilators-trump.html

    So now he is invoking the wartime production deal and talking about GM moving too slow. The buck never stops at the WH!

    The only thing that worries Trump now is that unemployment will be higher in November than when he was elected and that the markets won't be up 50%! Everything else is to be ignored or hidden.


  108. Interesting – Does this mean over 2 million licensees in the US are not eligible for benefits due to covid 19?

    https://www.ocregister.com/2020/03/28/coronavirus-economy-california-real-estate-sales-now-deemed-essential-industry/

    Many more 'essentials' to come!


  109. a group of people posing for a photo

    Image may contain: 2 people, selfie and closeup

    Add 50 years and you get this:

    Image may contain: 3 people, including Mildred Klein, people sitting, night and indoor

    I'm still wearing stripes…

    Why is the Fed not getting credit for solving the toilet paper crisis?  

    $6Tn is 60Bn squares – That's a 200-sheet roll for every man, woman and child in the country!

    Boy and there's a Seinfeld for everything too:


  110. Image may contain: one or more people, crowd, stadium and outdoor, possible text that says 'Wednesday April 1 1:00 pm MARCH to STOP the SPREAD'

    "There's a hole in the world like a great black pit

    And the vermin of the world inhabit it

    And its morals aren't worth what a pig can spit

    And it goes by the name of London…
    At the top of the hole sit a privileged few

    Making mock of the vermin in the lower zoo

    Turning beauty to filth and greed…
    But not for long…
    They all deserve to die.
    Tell you why, Mrs. Lovett, tell you why.
    Because in all of the whole human race
    Mrs. Lovett, there are two kinds of men and only two
    There's the one staying put in his proper place
    And the one with his foot in the other one's face
    Look at me, Mrs Lovett, look at you.

    Don't we all deserve to die?
    Even you, Mrs. Lovett, even I.
    Because the lives of the wicked should be made brief
    For the rest of us death will be a relief
    We all deserve to die." – Sweeney Todd 

    Not a real march, of course but sad amounts of people falling for it on Facebook….

    Image may contain: 1 person, text

    No photo description available.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections?fbclid=IwAR3KN-KjUHrKsoN2HXAS4FFj0jnIxc5pDfzuuC1zw666GhSuT6C40U3IfkE

    Good chart.

    This is my street:

    No photo description available.

    Image may contain: outdoor, possible text that says 'ASLT ???? ???? 01 iKiii ??? ??? ?? England: Paying 80% of people's salary Denmark: Paying 75% of people's salary Canada: Sending everyone $2k/month USA: a one time $1,200 check for some'

    Image may contain: 1 person, sitting and meme, possible text that says 'Back in my fuckin day, you could eat a raw fuckin bat without causing a fuckin global crisis'

    Image may contain: 1 person, possible text that says 'EXTRA A Kansas Official Said Coronavirus Isn't A Problem In His State Because There Aren't Many Chinese People There... "Marvin Rodriquez, chairman the Riley Commission in Kansas, fellow officials and Kansas City Star that coronavirus wasn't local problem weren't lot of Chinese people living there, reported The Intercept. When he was called out on it, did he apologize? Nope. He doubled down by saying the region where coronavirus started in Italy is full of Chinese people. Ignorance and racism have no place in government.'

    And don't let it be said you can't get anything done at home! 


  111. what happens to GOLD is physical gold is hoarded?


  112. what happens to GOLD if physical gold is hoarded?


  113. Was it your birthday Phil? Hope it was a good one if so! 






  114. Ventilators – So he doesn't like the governors of Washington & Michigan, but look what LA County gets when he's not mad at us: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-29/california-broken-ventilators-silicon-valley-newsom


  115. Great at home concert on Fox. 


  116. "SQQQ/Wing – It's a hedge, not a bet.  You manage it by not staring at it constantly.  You are HOPEFULLY going to lose 100% of that money as things get back to normal in June – that's when you know it went well.  It's like calling your life insurance broker to see how dead you are every day… "

    Ha ha, thanks Phil .. knew there was some reason I wasn’t eating .. @_@  ..

    THRILLED, HOPEFUL and temporarily poor but apparently not dead (might have to confirm that with broker on Monday!    ;-)





  117. Oil For $1.75 A Barrel?




  118. I am new with your newsletter. Too much is going on your website I am trying to figure out how you can help buy and sell stock short term and long term. Too much info and not enough info to help me with trading 

    Am I missing something all this is more of a place to get your frustration out no matter who you are Right wing or left wing 


  119. So is that a trading question? 

    It is not always a good time to trade.   One of the most important things I teach our members is patience!

    As a new member, hopefully you got a welcome letter suggesting that you read the last few months of articles and comments and also that you begin paper trading our trades to follow along until you get the hang of how we do things here.

    As a new member, hopefully you got a welcome letter suggesting that you read the last few months of articles and comments and also that you begin paper trading our trades to follow along until you get the hang of how we do things here.

    We have an Education section above and a Strategy section and also Portfolio Reviews so you can get an idea of what kind of past trades and adjustments we have made.  There are also Tops Trades above, which are a collection of our recent and best trade ideas.  

    I’m not sure when you joined – welcome by the way – but the end of this week has been marked by uncertainty so we did not make many trades.  In the two weeks before, on the other hand, we had about 30 picks for new trade ideas and 100 trades from our portfolios that were adjusted, many of which could be new trades as we repositioned.   

    And, of course, you certainly found our live chat area and that is where our members are free to discuss any trees they are interested in and we exchange ideas.  

    So welcome and let me know if there is something specific you would like to look at but, otherwise, I would suggest starting with the Portfolio Reviews to get an idea which of our 100 positions you might be interested in starting out with.   

    And good morning to everyone, by the way!







  120. Why This Is Unlike The Great Depression