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How to Buy Stocks for a 15-20% Discount

Value Investors: 3 Dirt-Cheap Stocks Trading at a Massive Discount ...Are you down 50% one or more of your stocks?

That's the position a lot of people are finding themselves at the moment and some part of that is, of course, from the overall market drop but a lot of that is from paying too much when they bought the stock in the first place.  At Philstockworld.com, we teach our Members to NEVER pay retail prices for a stock – that's what retail traders do – not professional traders!  

First of all, see our article about Scaling Into Positions from the Strategy Section of Philstockworld.com.  The very short story is that you should never make a full commitment to a position early on.  You should break your portfolio down into Allocation Blocks (see Strategy Section) equal to no more than 10% and preferably 5% of your portfolio so that no one position can break you and THEN you break your allocation blocks into quarters and each position should be started with a 1/4 entry.

Now, not only can no single position damage your portfolio but no single entry should be able to damage it either.  For example, Disney (DIS) seemed like a very safe stock and, even at $140, it wasn't terribly overpriced but then the virus hit and all the movie theaters closed and the theme parks closed and POOF! – half their business disappeared and the stock dropped to $85 before recovering a bit to $94.  Had you bought DIS for $140 in February, you'd be down 33%.  

Had you, however, made a 1/4 allocation to DIS in Feb, let's say buying 100 shares for $14,000 in a $50,000 allocation block, you would have plenty of buying power to buy 100 more at $90 ($9,000) and your average on 200 shares would be would be $115 ($23,000) – not even 1/2 of your $50,000 and down only 18.3% on the larger position.

Don't miss out! How Disney uses FOMO (and other marketing gimmicks ...If DIS dropped another 33% to $62 (and we're assuming you still want to be in the stock, of course), you would have $27,000 on the sidelines in your allocation block and you could buy 200 more shares for just $12,400, bringing your average cost down to $88.50 and you STILL have $14,600 on the sidelines.  More importantly, you would have 400 shares of DIS at $88.50 ($35,400) that would have cost you $56,000 if you had bought them all at $140 so you'd saved $20,600 by scaling in patiently.  

Do you miss out on upside if DIS goes to $190 instead of $90?  Of course you do but then you have a nice, cheap entry on DIS and you take the rest of your money and find ANOTHER stock that's a good deal – THAT's your downside!  The upside is having plenty of capital to spend during a crisis and a portfolio that's full of either winners or positions you can well afford to fix – how does that sound?  

Now, what if we combine that with a fool-proof method that guarantees you'll never buy a stock again for the listed price.  In fact, right now, I will tell you that the MOST I would pay for DIS is $80, not $94 AND that I will either own DIS for $80 or I will make up to $15 (19% of $80) for NOT owning it this year!  Sound interesting? Read on…

Our watch levels for our next set of bullish market plays have been Dow 21,600, S&P 2,600, Nasdaq 7,750, NYSE 10,500 and Russell 1,100 and this morning the Futures are up 3% so we'll see if it holds through tomorrow and, hopefully, they now form a floor we will be able to watch so we'll know when to be worried that the rally is running out of steam.  There's no point in having watch levels if we don't act on them and the plan was to work our way into new bullish positions is with our famous Buy/Write Strategy – simply the best way to initiate new stock positions for the average investor.  See:

Given that it is now less likely that the market drops more than 10% from here, picking up stocks for 20% below their current price is a sensible way to begin building some new positions.  By picking value names and concentrating on plays that give us much better prices than the ones paid by the average retail investor using very basic option strategies we can stay ahead of the game and buy with some comfort. This strategy, which we call a "buy/write", as we buy the stock and write options against it, is one of our most effective tools for dealing with a uncertain markets.

Call and Put Options Definitions and Examples

Not only does the Buy/Write Strategy give you an initial discount on your ownership of a stock, but you can use variations on this strategy to give yourself another 10-20% three to four times a year!  If you have a retirement account that allows you to write covered calls and sell puts in it (check with your broker, of course, some do, some don't) why wouldn't you want to generate an additional discount off the stocks you plan to hold long-term?  If you plan on accumulating a stock over time, why on earth would you even consider paying "retail" when we can teach you a simple method that can put money in your pocket?

We no longer have the absolute bargains we used to have but there are still plenty of stocks that are trading at 50% off their highs and, if this rally is going to continue, that spells huge opportunity for us.  It is always important to select stocks that have strong underlying fundamentals which we intend to hold long-term.  

As long as you are willing to own 100 shares of a stock – this system can reliably give you a 10-20% discount off the current market price.  It's simple, easy to follow and is ideal for trading in a volatile market.

PhilStockWorld.com | Be the HOUSE - NOT the Gambler!I will give a few examples here and, if you sign up for our newsletter service, The PSW Report, using this link, you will be able to read more about this strategy as we follow it along and build new positions through the end of the year but new trades and our new Buy List will only be available with Basic and Premium Memberships.  How does this strategy work?  It's very simple and here are a couple of examples using stocks you probably want anyway:

Let's say, for our first example, we want to buy DIS at $94 but, as I mentioned above, I'm not a sucker who pays retail prices and I'd rather buy it at $80.  I don't HAVE to buy the stock.  I can sell a put contract which is, very simply, a contract that allows the owner of DIS shares to PUT them to me (force me to buy them) for the contract price at any time during the length of the contract.  

Why will a holder of DIS stock PAY me to agree to buy his stock?  Most likely, he is paying for insurance that limits his losses.  For instance, the DIS Jan 2021 $97.50 puts are $17.50.  That means the person who owns DIS at $94 today, is willing to pay me $17.50 to promise to buy DIS from him for $97.50 between now and January.  He is guaranteeing a net sale of $80 ($97.50 less the $17.50 he paid me) and, of course, he thinks DIS will go up more than $17.50 – he's just not SURE that will happen and wants insurance.  

From our point of view, however, we are getting $17.50 in our pockets now and all we're doing is signing a contract that says the seller can make us buy 100 shares of DIS (per contract) for $97.50 between now and the Jan 15th, 2021 expiration date.  If we are assigned (and even if not), we keep the $17.50 x 100 contracts = $1,750 so there are 2 possible outcomes:  Either DIS is below $97.50 and we end up getting 100 shares for net $80 ($8,000) or it's above $97.50 and we just keep the $1,750, which is 21.9% of 80 8 months from now.  

That is how we either buy our stocks for a discount or we make 15-20% a year for doing nothing.  Not a bad way to start investing, right?  If you had bought all of your stocks for a 15-20% discount, would your portfolio be better or worse off than it is now?

If a stock pays a dividend (and few do these days) and you'd rather own the stock to collect it, you can do something more complicated we call a "Buy/Write", which is buying the stock and writing both puts and calls against it.  This is adding a new layer to the above strategy but it can be very powerful.  

Tanger Factory Outlets (SKT) is my favorite under-priced REITs and, at $1.43, their dividend is 33% of their $4.26 price.  Very likely they will cut it but, if they don't – you sure do want to own this stock!  So, rather than just sell the puts, we can buy the stock and sell the puts and calls.  The calls, if we sell them, allow someone to force us to SELL them the stock at a certain price over the term of the contract.  Our set-up would be:

  • Buy 1,000 shares of SKT at $4.26 ($4,260)
  • Sell 10 SKT 2022 $5 calls for $1.50 ($1,500) 
  • Sell 10 SKT 2022 $5 puts for $3 ($3,000) 

As crazy as it seems, we are buying 1,000 shares of SKT for a net CREDIT of $240 and we are obligating ourselves to buy 1,000 more (the puts) at $5 ($5,000), which would put us into 2,000 shares at net $4,760 or $2.38 per share.  That is our worst case to the downside, owning 2,000 shares of SKT 44% below the current price so, if we have $20,000 allocation blocks, this is a very easy place to start.  

If SKT is under $3, we are likely to get assigned and own it at $2.38 but then we can sell more puts and more calls to lower our net further (not to mention collecting the 0.35 quarterly dividends!).  If the stock is over $5, we will get "called away" by the person we sold calls to at $5 or $5,000 and our profit would be $5,240 in two years.  

Either own the stock at a tremendous discount or make a massive profit at just 20% above the current price – are you seeing the merits to this strategy?  

This is a simple example over a short period.  The key is to pick stocks that are:

  1. Trading near lows and are undervalued
  2. Fairly volatile
  3. NOT likely to go bankrupt
  4. Either pay dividends or have good growth
  5. Have a clear path of continuing contracts to write
  6. You don't mind owning long-term

In short, if you think SKT is a relatively good deal at $4.26 - why not commit to buying it for $2.38 instead?  Also, to take a more advanced view, the trade doesn't end on Jan 21st, 2022.  You have a $2.38 basis in Tanger, who may one day begin paying dividends again – even if they have to halt them for a while.  If they do, that's another 60% annual return on your money at $1.42.  Additionally, you can continue to sell calls against the stock.  Let's say SKT falls all the way to $2 (down 50%) and you are stuck in it at $2.38.  You can still sell 2024 $2 calls for about  $1 and drop your basis to $1.38 – maybe lower! 

With a $1 lower basis of $1.38 after selling another call, we don't mind being called away at $2 (up 52%) and, if we sell $1 puts for 0.50, that could drop the net to 0.88 or 0.94 if assigned so then 4,000 shares at 0.94 is $3,760, which is our risk of ownership if it plays out like that (SKT has to not go bankrupt, of course).  

Another application of this strategy is to hedge against riskier trades like hospitals.  We like Tenet Health Care (THC) but the virus is making things crazy though we feel that the Government will guarantee the hospitals payments, removing a lot of the financial risk.  Buying that stock for $11.89 and selling the Jan, 2022 $10 calls for $5.50 and the 2022 $10 puts for $3.40 nets us into that stock for just $2.99 out of pocket.  That's a 75% discount on the stock and, if we are called away at $10 on Jan 21st, 2022, it will be with a $7.01 (234%) profit.  If things go poorly and THC drops like a rock and is below $10 on Jan 21st, 2022, we would be obligated to buy another round at $10, which would give us an average entry of $6.50, which is 45% LESS than it's trading for today.  That's your WORST CASE!   

How often does someone come to you with a way to buy a stock at a 45% discount that can pay you a 234% profit if it simply DOESN'T FALL 10% for 20 months? 

10 Stocks To Buy For 2020We identify dozens of trades like this every single week over at Philstockworld.  While you can do this with almost any stock, we are able to identify unique option opportunities that make certain stocks a little more favorable than others and we can teach you to do it too.  

At this point you may be saying to yourself:  "If I can learn to buy all my stocks for 27.8% discounts, I bet I can improve my trading performance."  That's exactly what hedge funds do and there's no reason you can't learn to do it as well!  The great thing is – there is always an option.  

We have featured over 100 of these plays in past months in member chat and our Buy Lists (see articles above) and, in this scary and volatile market, they are one of the best ways for you to capitalize on the volatility while hedging the risk on your upside plays and positioning yourself for a (we hope!) a long-term recovery.  If the market does end up flatlining however, we are positioning ourselves in stocks at good prices that can generate a very reasonable monthly income – which will keep us flexible in a challenging market!

Again, if you sign up for our newsletter service, The PSW Report, using this link, we will be featuring some of these trades weekly and if you want live Alerts of Trade Ideas as we identify them or you want to view our daily trading chat live, then check out a Basic or Premium Membership – It's a good time to stop watching other people make money and get into the game. 

 


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  1. Good morning!

    Yes, this is Monday's post.  

    It started out as a quick re-write of an old article but then I got into a whole new thing as it's very relevant to where we are now as people are rebuilding portfolios.  


  2. Good Morning


  3. I would love to say that we are forming a bottom but there are still some painful weeks ahead and still some states who are not taking this seriously so hard to say when this will be contained in the US! 


  4. This might be helpful news:

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-researchers-answer-shortage-n95-masks-1.5518226

    Led by Dr. Anand Kumar, a professor of medicine at the University of Manitoba, the study said preliminary results suggest some masks could be successfully decontaminated and reused up to 10 times using common sterilization techniques.

    Apparently, using autoclave, you can process some N95 masks! How long until we see new mask models to prevent that!


  5. Good Morning.


  6. And this would be amazing…

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/31/new-blood-test-can-detect-50-types-of-cancer

    A new blood test that can detect more than 50 types of cancer has been revealed by researchers in the latest study to offer hope for early detection.

    The test is based on DNA that is shed by tumours and found circulating in the blood. More specifically, it focuses on chemical changes to this DNA, known as methylation patterns.

    Researchers say the test can not only tell whether someone has cancer, but can also shed light on the type of cancer they have.

    Maybe we'll spend more money on medical research (rather than cutting funding)!


  7. That's Friday 3:21 pm through this morning at 8:11.  212,355 (19.7%) new cases!   71,262 from the US is up 26.7%.  12,000 more deaths, 45,000 recoveries still not good with deaths being 21% of outcomes. 

    Not mattering much today to traders – people learn to live with anything…

    Big Chart – 1,000 points this morning aught to help.

    Masks/StJ – Well that is good news.  I can't believe 3M can't run machines 24/7 and get more masks out the door – must be a supply (ingredients) issue.   Cancer news is great if we can only live that long to worry about it.

    Something about 7 tigers getting corona from a zookeeper somewhere.  If that's true and animals can get it – especially birds and rats – then we're all going to get it eventually no matter what we try to do to prevent it.


  8. Phil; Market is up about 5% !. having the  "11-S week"  in front…is an example of American uniqueness, now applied for this pandemic issue. 

    Being from this side ( initiating my 4th. confinement week) you believe..or think (At this moment is not much difference) that U.S market is at least in a bottom?


  9. Phil. 

    Here's a question – when they say "Recovered" – do they mean people who were hospitalized and then discharged?  Do they mean people that tested positive, were not seriously sick and were sent home and then they followed up with every one of them to see if they answered their phone a week later?

    Cuomo has repeatedly referred to 'hospital discharges'. A number that he says is rising with intake.

    Side note – i'm now on the recovered end of a virus, i had many of the symptoms and it kept me horizontal for a week.   I'm (just) under 40 and in relatively good shape – my video dr gave me the usual "fluids, rest, Tylenol" – he also said, being low risk, not being in a life threatening state that it'd be very unlikely i would be able to get a test anyway.  He asked, if it didn't need hospital care, why i would risk going to a hospital?  I live in NYC.  

    From a purely statistical POV Phil, when you say 'deaths being 21% of outcomes' – what do you mean?

    Here's my impression:  FAR more people have Covid than numbers suggest. Far more people have recovered from Covid than numbers suggest.  Of course, many many more people will get very sick and die.  I have no intention of downplaying severity or aligning with any absurd right wing narrative (quite the opposite)   - but i do have a desire to understand the numbers being presented to us. 


  10. Univ of Washington came out saying that  US deaths will be between about 50k and 150k with 80k being the most likely outcome. That's a lot better than most forecasts. But based on keeping the lockdowns in place through end of May. I think if they're right the pandemic market effects are going to be roadkill in the rear view mirror by August. But I wonder whether the market is currently pricing in 2 months of lockdown and 80k dead, or whether there's going to be another wave of panic. The other thing is that /ES 2625 has been a good short line lately. Good for another trip?


  11. My uncle just died 2 weeks ago 80 plus years old he probably died from COV19 complications  he was never tested. They put him on morphine and said we cant do anything for him. You would think they would at least have tested him


  12. Sorry for your loss Bertll.  :(

     

    I wonder how many other deaths from the virus go unreported….


  13. Best for you Bertll.

    At the end, we are all victims






  14. Tiger at NYC’s Bronx Zoo tests positive for coronavirus


  15. Phil/THC,

    Any BCS that you recommend. 2022 10/15 BCS (quantity 10) with short sale of strike 8 (5 quantity) for $750

    regards


  16. How to beat the coronavirus and return to a new normal


  17. 30 Major U.S. Companies Hiring Now to Meet Coronavirus Demand



  18. Trump shuts down Dr. Fauci’s cautions on unproven drug



  19. Sorry for your loss Bertll.

    Dr. Fauci said this week is going to be hour darkest hour.


  20. BTW, they have not advertised that fact much, but the administration has basically agreed to pay hospitals the treatment costs for people who don't have insurance. Seems like Medicare for all to me… So for some reason, no one has to justify these numbers. We simply decided that we would pay.

    And sorry for your loss Bertl! 


  21. The Naz needs follow through today into tomorrow and to go over 7880 or it looks like it'll leg down. There's a lot of free money but no one is working, the old American economy is so far from normal and it'll take 2 years to look "normal" again.


  22. This is funny, a cruise ship hardened to antartic ice sink a state of the art frigate of Venezuelan Navy..

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/hisutton/2020/04/05/venezuelan-navy-retweets-questionable-evidence-in-resolute-case/#3578f8c97a2d


  23. Mankiw – Thanks kgabor115 for the link. It sounds like a great idea!…that will never be used. :(


  24. Bottom/Advill – It's not about the 1,288,372 people with the virus, it's about the $6,000,000,000,000 we're spending to fix the economic damage of 1,288,372 people who have the virus but actually it's "only" 337,933 in the US so $17.7M per infected person.  

    CLEARLY the sensible thing would have been to do what China did and REALLY spend the money on each infected person, find them, isolate them and make sure they don't give it to anyone else.  If we had done that when there were 15 people – we probably could have saved a bit of money, right?  

    Still, it goes back to, in the US, 647,000 people die of Heart Disease (9M worldwide), 600,000 from cancer (6M worldwide), 169,000 people from accidents, 160,000 from respiratory issues, 150,000 from strokes….  All in all 2.8M Americans die every year from something and, at the moment, 8,000 are dying from COVID-19 and maybe that will go up 10x and it still won't make the top 10 causes of death nor will it make a dent in 2.8M total deaths so really, it's a non-issue for the economy. 

    What is an issue is shutting down the economy for 60-90 days but I ate food, watched TV and played with my computer this weekend so – ECONOMY!  Not my usual weekend but not nothing either but, for probably 150M Americans – that is their usual weekend since they don't have money to go out and do things anyway.  

    So 50% of us are spending what, 50% less than usual?  That would leave the economy 75% functioning and, guess what, that's about the numbers they are predicting – a 33% drop in Q2 GDP.

    So what is Q2 GDP?  Well, it's an $20Tn economy so $5Tn a quarter and 33% of that is $1.5Tn-2Tn lost and the stimulus is….. $2Tn but there's another $4Tn in fun money being printed by the Fed so PLENTY of cash to fill in the gap if we're over the virus by June 30th and, if not, what's another $2Tn between friends?  

    So, on that basis, without the situation drastically changing, this should be the bottom, which is why I made a very strong bottom call two weeks ago and why we strongly moved bullish in our portfolios.  

    What could get worse?  Well the stimulus seems to be misdirected and if airlines and auto companies and restaurants start going under – then ending the virus won't end our problems.  That's what we have to keep our eye on.

    Recovered/Potter – My impression is that infected means confirmed (tested) infected and recovered means confirmed infected and then confirmed not infected so yes, lots of people could have cycled through without showing up in the stats and people could have died without showing up also but what does that matter?  As I noted above, COVID-19 is working its way up the charts to become a leading cause of death in America and will likely remain so until we find a vaccine.  I agree with your Doctor – the last place you want to be is a hospital if you can avoid it – that's where the sick people are!  

    When I say 21% of the outcomes are death, that's 12,000 new deaths and 45,000 more recoveries = 57,000 new outcomes, 21% of which were DEATH!  You can play with invisible numbers all day and all night and spin them in whatever way makes you feel better in your World view but I'm a numbers guy and those numbers need to be REAL numbers that are scientific facts. 

    Water freezes at 32F, not 31 and not 33 and you can say:

    • What about the container?
    • What about the impurities?
    • What about the altitude?

    They are all valid points that all would give you a different outcome but, if that leads you to conclude that water doesn't freeze at 32F , then you are just an idiot who doesn't understand what science is, right?  

    Also, I don't just look at raw data but TRENDS in raw data so China, for example, has 77,310 recovered and 4,000 deaths so about 5% death rate but China did everything right in containing the virus (after a slow start) so originally we were projecting 20x worse than the Flu, which kills 0.1% but then we began seeing what happened in countries that mishandled the virus and it was 10%-20% of the outcomes being death and what we now look for is does that number trend up or down as the number of new cases slows. 

    In the US, we aren't slowing new cases (72,000) or deaths (8,000) and recoveries is not going well either (17,500) but it's still early so I'm not screaming that 33% of the outcomes are death in the US – hopefully it's just a reflection of Trump's total failure to prepare for this in the 3 months the World was watching China cope with the Virus (Chinese New Year was 1/25 and two weeks leading up to that the virus was a major concern).  Hopefully, we'll do better in the next few weeks and deaths will go down while recoveries go up but those are the relative numbers to watch and, if cases keep rising to 500,000 by Monday (as I have predicted since we had less than 80,000) – then we begin to hit the point at which our hospitals are overwhelmed and, rather than going down, you may see those deaths skyrocket.  

    Fortunately, Jared is in charge now.  

    Jared Kushner told Trump media exaggerated coronavirus threat: NYT ...

    Wheee – let's buy some stocks!   cheeky

    /ES/Dawg – Tricky with all the euphoria today but it is Monday so if you are able to keep tight stops, could be worth the risk.

    /NG no longer worth the risk, stopping out if it fails $1.70 but nice ride.

    /SI is the only one I still have going, stop at $15.

    Sorry to hear it Bert.  

    THC/Pat – As a new trade, I'd go with the following:

    • Sell 5 THC 2022 $15 puts for $5.50 ($2,250) 
    • Buy 15 THC 2022 $13 calls for $5 ($7,500)
    • Sell 15 THC 2022 $20 calls for $3.25 ($4,875)

    That's net $375 on the 10,500 spread so $10,125 (2,700%) upside potential at $20, which I think is very reasonable.  I like 15 as you can sell 5 short calls when they bounce back to $20 and be well covered.

    Social insurance/Kgab – I like it.

    Hospitals/StJ – I heard that but couldn't verify but that's why I liked THC this morning – sounded right.

    LOL BDC – this looks weak to you?  I'd love to give you a Rorschach Test. 

    That's consolidating for a move up more likely. 


  25. Medicare for all – Extolling that "socialist' idea isn't so bad after all!




  26. ‘Scared to Death’ by Arbitration: Companies Drowning in Their Own System



  27. looks like their target for /ES is 2642…
     


  28. Phil, Thanks, good argument, I take it.


  29. Stimulus / Phil – We have to assume that it will be misdirected considering who is in charge! But moreover, another issue is that large corporations (who don't even pay taxes in some cases or are badly run) are getting bailout money with some very loose strings attached (and none at all if Trump and co. have their ways) while small business will get loans and I am sure there will be strong strings attached there. And family are getting a few thousand dollars!

    So that's your first indication that misdirection is the order of the day! 


  30. Phil, did you put the kids' college money half in yet? 


  31. China consumers spending comeback is slow. I think this will be tru in the US as well.


  32. Yes, QQQ needs to be at 200 or it's weak. $2T (really 6) in new money and this is it? 

    Weak.


  33. I hit GBTC hard at 6. Half out now. Might as well ride the remainder for a currency collapse.

    "Financialization" doesn't provide for any value. It's amazing how far into the void of the internet one must go to find people actually talking about it.

    a "financialized economy — a supernatural matrix of something-for-nothing swindles and frauds that purported to replace actual work that produced things of value."

    Trump's Mega Printing response to COVID is a desperate gasp for continuity towards the very same thing that's dying. It's an experimental hydroxychloroquine pill for a 90-year COVID patient past the point of no return. I like reading Michael Hudson. He discusses this in great detail and has the economic and professional experience to back up the theory.


  34. I havnt  heard anything about the huge underground cash economy nobody is coming to bail them out.


  35. BDC – And suddenly everybody is a health expert… Navarro is having fights with Fauci and argues that because he has a PhD he can tell that a treatment works! Once again, won't listen to experts.


  36. Nobody is coming, tommyt….

     

    navarro and tdump – brothers from other mothers….


  37. College money/Jeff – It was on my list if things didn't fall apart as of tomorrow (as Monday's don't count).  Both my kids are in college so not worth a big risk as they are pretty much paid for ($300,000 each) for 4 years and the Government takes half the excess so there's little net benefit in trying to add to it as Jackie is doing programming and may not even go 4 years (though Stevens is $75K/yr, so angry) while Maddie is possibly going to grad school but only spending $50,000 so far in undergrad so should be plenty left.  So not enough upside to justify risking losing a year of college so I'm only putting 50% back in for now and the rest if we go 20-40% lower or stabilize around 2,850.

    Misdirection/StJ – That's obvious but will it go back into the economy is the real question?  

    $2Tn/BDC – It hasn't been distributed yet, has it?  

    Hudson/BDC – Yep, that's one from the void alright

    One From The Vaults - Home | Facebook

    Navarro/StJ – You know that PhD is in Economics, right?  

    I mean just saying such a thing would get you laughed out of a room full of normal people but, in Trumpland, it's just another Manic Monday. 


  38. Navarro / Phil – I know. It's just insane. Supposedly Giulani is back at it, whispering new crazy stuff in Trump's ears. Before you know it, Trump will be peddling Jim Baker miracle drug in his conference. The level of incompetence and lack of seriousness compared to most countries (UK excluded) is staggering!



  39. PhD's – A couple of days ago a PhD epidemiologist/microbiologist on medium was explaining why masks weren't a magic shield, and Chris Martensen, PhD (economics) chimed in about how the OP had the science all wrong, he should be banned, his post should be torn to shreds and burned, and so on…..based on his scientific understanding from his PhD……..


  40. Oh  – and the OP wasn't me, BTW


  41. That's why we have 350,000 cases in the US and the next worst is Spain and Italy at 135,000, Germany and France at 100,000, China 82,665, Iran 60,500 and below that, only the UK (52,260) is over 30,000 in the entire planet!  We are mind-blowingly the WORST of all the countries on the planet Earth and it is OBVIOUSLY the fault of the Trump administration yet, somehow, they seem to be able to harness their media allies and their faithful GOP Operatives to confuse the issue.  

    You truly can fool some of the people all of the time – that's why they call them "The Party of Lincoln" – it's the motto the GOP live by, though it's much more Barnum than Lincoln the way they use it…

    Martensen/Snow – Wow, do you get those Economics PhD's in gum wrappers?  Everyone seems to have one!  Martenson is a "Peak Oil" idiot – he and I have gone at it many times.  $26 oil says I'm winning so far….  He's been pretty quiet the last 10 years as his doom and gloom crap wasn't gaining traction but now's his chance to shine again.  


  42. Boris Johnson moved to ICU. 


  43. Well I sure am glad I let /SI ride!  

    It was close to forming a stop-out but we were over that red line at $14.88 so I wasn't too jumpy – fortunately.  That's crazy money for one day!  

    /NG also didn't stop out but $1.75 is plenty now.

    The will leave me with no Futures trades and nothing I really want to trade except maybe Sugar (/SB).

    Gotta go for CANE here at $5.44.  Options are super-thin unfortunately but the Oct $5s are less than $1 so let's get 20 of those in the STP just to remember to watch them.


  44. There's an idiot, here's a leader:

    She's 93 years old and has a way better handle on the situation than Trump does.  


  45. Make that 94 this month (if Johnson didn't infect her, idiot!).  


  46. Nas 8,000 – hats on!


  47. Is the correlation between oil and stock futures tighter than normal these last few days?


  48. Naz 8000. Hooray for the regal ownership class.


  49. Well we aren't going to have voting here in Wisconsin tomorrow as the governor just canceled it. He was trying to get mail in voting and of course, right on cue, the Republican's voted it down. Now it is time too kiss our Democracy, or what is left of it, goodbye. I did the mail in since I was supposed to still be in Fla. However there is also a hot contested Judgeship on the ballot between a right wing appointed by Walker and a woman with loads of experience and leans left. 


  50. Phil, This market action is unreal today……What everything is lollipops and roses today?……This is just nuts….


  51. Well, Jasu, it is Monday, so we will have to take it with a grain of salt but we were oversold and there wasn’t any more particularly bad news so good conditions for a rally.  


  52. Anyone notice the volume spike at 3:45 on all stock indices?….


  53. The queen watched Churchill at work in one of the worst crisis in UK history. BoJo has gone to the same leadership school as Trump!


  54. StJean/The Queen – well, and that is the real job of royalty, to be an avatar, a living statement, of the history and culture of the people, and she's been brought up with that.


  55. oooo weeeeeee what a close.

    I might have to be short term long for awhile. I'll go ahead and make the call that we will see a punch down during September's earnings season. This is when free money to repurchase stocks doesn't replace the 10M visitors that evaporated at the entirety of Disney's 7 parks (as a single example). Plus the virus will return in October and Trump's grueling re-election antics will weigh heavily on our otherwise beautiful shining souls adding to the toilet bowl that will be Q4 2020.

    Spring/Summer hyperinflation stairs rally. Fall elevator plummet.


  56. This is why I think the entire system is in trouble. The government learned how to create debt to create money (in the financial crises). The debt has never abated since. Now comes along COVID and the entire economy effectively stops. The government steps in by creating currency to buy debt like the payroll protection program, EIDL, etc. So, now the government is buying debt to create currency… to buy the debt they are creating by buying their own debt! My head hurts. 

    Anyways, raise your hand if you think this ends badly.


  57. A monopolistic, centralized authority that issues credit and debt is no longer the most efficient mechanism for orchestrating society, religion and indentity.


  58. I hope BoJo pulls through. I pray for every soul. I hope we get past this quickly. 


  59. PSW//Masks,

    Guys any authentic place to buy masks. I understand they are scarce. I just want a couple for me and family. Amazon has it but not sure whether they are good. heard about people washing and reusing and reselling them.

    regards


  60. Pat     We are making masks out of bandanas.  They work to keep your spread to others. Not N95 but readily available.  Look on internet how to make, or just fold the bandana to cover nose, mouth and chin and tie in back. 


  61. Pat/masks

    Go on eBay. You'll overpay but can find a nice price gouger willing to sell you some.

    I don't know about washing and reusing, it degrades the mask. 


  62. jeffdoc/txchil/Masks

    Thank you for your inputs.

    regards


  63. txchili   Me, my wife, and our dog all wear matching bandannas.  The ones with the paisleys. 


  64. Jeffdoc – Did you what I posted earlier about using autoclave to re-use N95 masks. Works for some at least it seems.


  65. StJ

    Yes. I read that article you posted, lots of folks looking into reprocessing. I had not heard of autoclaving them but will look to see if that is being done elsewhere. The biggest issue will be whether or not we are sure the masks function properly afterward. In the article, the "pleated" mask he refers to is not what we are wearing to my knowledge (the one pictured in the article is not even an N95). There is also some data about UVC sterilization, I believe UNC is doing that. Each facility has to figure this out independently though so thats a major issue.

    It would be great if 3M or another mask company would get involved and help suggest ways to reprocess them quickly – not hearing that is happening. There are apparently 3rd party companies that may do this, that is what our facility is looking in to. 


  66. How Covid affected the working hours of US employees
    https://joinhomebase.com/data/covid-19/




  67. Businesses wait for word, money after applying for SBA loans


  68. Congress, White House reach high for next virus bill




  69. Italy Is Sending Another Warning