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Fall Back Friday – What a Good Time For a Trade War!

Coronavirus vs Trump: the US president's authoritarian bluster has ...Trump is officially out of control.

It's May 1st and the Federal Government just ordered 100,000 more body bags on top of the 60,000+ (more than the 20-year Vietnam War) citizens we've already buried.  It was literally just a month ago that Trump told Hannity (3/26) that he didn't think the medical equipment the Governors were asking for was needed – so he didn't send any of that.  Now he is ready to send 100,000 body bags instead – those only cost $5M – much cheaper than actually helping.  

This isn't about that, if you don't realize Donald J Trump has completely and totally bungled the job of fighting the Coronavirus – then there's no facts that will ever convince you otherwise – they are all out there already.  This is about the new disaster Trump is causing by seeking to distract people from his inept response to the virus and the deaths of 100,000 voters, who knew 1M other voters at least and, by election day, it could be 10M voters.

"In a transparent attempt to distract from his continuing failure to lead an effective response to a disastrous public health crisis, the great showrunner in the White House is in the process of introducing a new story arc: an epic battle with an evil China.

"It involves blaming China for a virus that was most likely uncontainable, making all sorts of dark insinuations and demanding that his intelligence services find grist for anti-Chinese conspiracy theories, and threatening massive economic retaliation, apparently even to the point of defaulting on U.S. debt." – Salon

Trump is threatening more tariffs, Trump likes tariffs, his base likes tariffs – China is fun to hate.  As Orwell predicted about Trump in 1984:

"The German Nazis and the Russian Communists came very close to us in their methods, but they never had the courage to recognize their own motives. They pretended, perhaps they even believed, that they had seized power unwillingly and for a limited time, and that just around the corner there lay a paradise where human beings would be free and equal. We are not like that. We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means; it is an end."

Meet the Billionaires Who Run Trump's Government

"For if leisure and security were enjoyed by all alike, the great mass of human beings who are normally stupefied by poverty would become literate and would learn to think for themselves; and when once they had done this, they would sooner or later realize that the privileged minority had no function, and they would sweep it away. In the long run, a hierarchical society was only possible on a basis of poverty and ignorance.”

NanjingThere's another reason Trump needs you to hate China now – China is returning to normal, their massive response to the virus has actually contained it there and the country is opening back up.  The response of the Chinese Government to the pandemic and their success at eraticating it with 1/10th the number of cases the US already has DESPITE having 2 months more advanced warning than China about the virus – makes the President look bad by comparison.

When Donald Trump looks bad by comparison to others what does he do?  He villifies them.  Soon China will have a derisive nickname and Fox will be running non-stop stories about how horrible they are and maybe we'll even begin having military skirmishes with them over petty things – ANYTHING to distract you from the fact that China is getting back to normal by doing things the Trump Administration still isn't close to accomplishing.  As noted by CityAm's Shuyu Gao

I was aware when I booked the trip to China that there would be a quarantine period to follow on arrival. This required 14 days and nights in a hotel designated by the government, to be paid for out of my own pocket.  

Upon arrival at my quarantine hotel, I was tested for Covid-19. Thereafter, my temperature was tested twice a day for two weeks. I also had to register on a Tencent mini app, which gave me a QR status code red.

After 14 days, and having cleared a second test for the virus, I was free to check out, at which point the medical staff updated my QR code on the app, which turned to green (shown below).

I was later granted another green QR code for the city of Nanjing; after my mum got a call form the local Nanjing government to check on the arrival time of my train.

These QR codes were checked on entry to “check-in” at places such as visiting the bank or a supermarket. My temperature was often taken, and this was common in both Guangzhou and Nanjing.

There is another QR code which I had to scan at certain places; it tracks people’s movements, which proves highly effective when carrying out contact tracing in order to protect the public.

In Guangzhou, everyone is required to wear a mask in public. For a brief moment I was not wearing my mask in the lift and on the metro. In both instances I was detected by cameras and asked to put one on.

There is much focus on mitigating the risk of a second wave of outbreaks in China, now that the country has largely re-opened after the lifting of lockdowns. My experience suggests that this is a risk the authorities are taking very seriously.

Before leaving Guangzhou, I took the opportunity to look around a few shopping centres and restaurants. There were many people going about their daily lives, but social distancing measures were evident in most restaurants, and the shops were relatively quiet, albeit a Friday afternoon.

NEW YORK CITY TIMELAPSE (EMPTY AMERICA) — fullinsightAre we doing ANY of those things as we open up our cities?  You hear Trump saying this country and that country is opening up, so why shouldn't we?  We shouldn't becasue, UNLIKE THEM, we are not ready.  We don't have the testing, the PPE equipment or the protocols or the tracking in place to have people randomly mingle again.  The US went from 30 infections on March 1st to 1,069,880 infections on May 1st – up 27,327 since… YESTERDAY!!!  

That's WITH the lockdown!   I wonder what will happen when we lift it?

Whatever it is – it certainly won't be Donald Trump's fault, right?

1,069,880 divided by 30 is 35,662.  That's how many times the infections have increased in two months.  To get to that level, you have to add 18.7% more infections per day for 61 days – that's a factor the scientists (BOO!!!) would say is R0 factor of 1.187, indicating that 1 person infects 1.87 other poeople.  So what happens if you remove the restrictions and, instead of starting with 30 cases, we start with 1,069,880 cases?  Well, in just 30 days, 183M people would be infected.

BUT, "only" 27,327 new people were infected today from 1,042,553 yesterday so that's only 2.6% per day under lockdown.  So lifting lockdown will put us higher than 2..6% (which, by the way means, if you are one of 100 people in a restaurant of a movie theater, by the end of your meal or the film, 2 or 3 of you will have contracted the virus) but lower than 18.7% so let's say it's just 5% (5 people per restaurant or screening per day) that get infected each day.

Lexington - In Trump they trust | United States | The EconomistUnfortunately, compounding 1,069,880 by 5% over just 31 days still gets you to 4.85M infections by the end of the month (right around when they are likely to realize lifting restrictions was a huge mistake – if it is) and, by the end of June, we'd be looking at 21M infected.  Those are the dice Trump is rolling!

The market is down today on Trade War talk and also on disappointments from Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) that weren't disappointing at all from a Fundamental standpoint.  There is still $2.7Tn of stimulus from the Government and $4Tn of liquidity from the Fed and another $2Tn soon to come out of Congress and that, my friends, is already $8.7Tn, which is 45% of our ENTIRE GDP, which was down 4.2% annualized percentage points as of yesterday morning (Q1 reading).  

While Q2 is obviously going to be much worse, 4.5% of a quarterly $5Tn is down $225Bn, not $8.7Tn and losing ALL of Q2 would be another $5Tn for $5.225Tn total – still NOT $8.7Tn.  The reason this money doesn't seem like enough is that Trump and Co. are funneling a large portion of it off to their friends and family and, if you don't think that's happening – then the President must be doing a really great job.

Have a great weekend,

- Phil


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  1. I really wonder why indices like the Nasdaq are taking off when economies are cratering – Europe's GDP is showing a 14% contraction, we are at -4.8% here but 2 months behind so next quarter will most likely be worse!  They are predicting in Europe that returning to 2019 GDP levels will take at least a year or more.

    They say that it takes 21 days to develop a new habit – new habits are being formed now! People won't rush out to go to restaurants, movie theaters and so on. But yet, markets are reacting like this is going to be like an ON/OFF switch. Madness!

  2. Good Morning.

  3. Trump / Phil – Not only are people dying because of his incompetence, but he is also adding that divisiveness that is preventing us from avoiding a bigger catastrophe in the future. He is now ranting like Mitch about helping blue states – in a way starting a virtual civil war! He is supporting these yahoos who invade state capitols with automatic weapons asking governors to be as stupid as Trump, putting lives in danger. And no one in the GOP is objecting loudly! But hey, both sides, right! #bluxit

  4. Good morning PSW

    Just putting my post again from yesterday evening here…basically looking for information to know where to get masks from? Our PSW community is the most informative I have ever came across. I know I did ask this before but asking once more as it seems more and more people would want to use mask if they are going in public places. thanks Phil for the update on masks….



    sorry for asking this again. It looks like many counties are ordering usage of face mask now. Phil can provide the masks but that is lot of quantity. I guess KN95 or N95 mask will help. I have found for children.

    thanks as always


  5. Pat- try your building centers, hardware stores. My daughters in NYC and that where I told her to look. I found the masks and gloves at Lows while in Fla. when no one was wearing them. Now it;s don't leave home without it. She found some, thankfully.

  6. I wonder how many letters a day the white house gets saying exactly what you're saying above, about how this is going to blow up if they lift restrictions. I've sent two myself. I'm probably on a watch list now.

    Better question is whether this slide continues and we should go to CASH or if this is just a decompression stop on the way up. 

  7. Good morning!

    Big Chart looking healthy enough not to cash out the worrying longs – though I would have if we didn't have such a big drop this morning.  We'll see what happens today at 2,850 but I feel the need to boost the hedges or reduce the longs by the afternoon.

    Though I hate to sit on the fence, we sat on the fence last Friday at $1,050,000(ish) for the LTP+STP and, as of yesterday's close, we're at $636,895 + $508,527 = $1,145,422 so down $60,000 from Wednesday's high but up $100,000 for the week so, like last week, if we just beef up the hedges to lock in the gains we can afford to be wishy-washy about our profit-taking.

    Nasdaq/StJ – Well tech is holding up well in the catastrophe, which underlines how valuable (long-term) these stocks really are in the 21st Century.  Again, write the word BILLION 6,500 times and then tell me the markets should be down.  Hasn't been enough time for it to trickle yet.  Also, habits only take a day to break – which reminds me – I still have a Cadbury bar in my draw!  See, that's my reward for being good all week – doing the thing I was supposed to stop doing…

    Bluxit/StJ – There's a song for that too:

    In this dirty old part of the city
    Where the sun refused to shine
    People tell me there ain't no use in tryin'
    Now my girl you're so young and pretty
    And one thing I know is true
    You'll be dead before your time is due, I know
    Watch my daddy in bed a-dyin'
    Watched his hair been turnin' grey
    He's been workin' and slavin' his life away
    Oh yes I know it
    (Yeah!) He's been workin' so hard
    (Yeah!) I've been workin' too, baby
    (Yeah!) Every night and day
    (Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah!)
    We gotta get out of this place
    If it's the last thing we ever do
    We gotta get out of this place
    'cause girl, there's a better life for me and you – Animals

    Trump is now killing more Americans every day than the worst days of Vietnam….  AND he's itching to start a war with Iran or China too!

    Masks/Pat – Try Alibaba, they are the Amazon of China and try Amazon, they are the Amazon of America…  I got basic masks out of Amazon, just to qualify for walking around, not the pro 3M kind because, honestly, if you don't also have eyewear, you're not doing much since your eyes are these giant, wet mucus membranes too.  Masks are really to stop you from spreading the virus to others – not the other way around.  

    This is my favorite though:

    Skull Outdoor Motorcycle Face Mask By Indie Ridge - Ski Snowboard Mask Seamless Headwear

    Speaking of the Nasdaq – recovering already with AAPL:

    Slide/Dawg – Much as this is likely to be a disaster – it might not be (35%) so FOMO there.  Also, we are able to mainly protect so, to me, the worst case is being up 60% (vs 90% now) if the market is back down 40% and that just means a bigger opportunity to go long again (we only had 50% of our money last time).  And, of course, $8.7Tn is a lot of money and $2.2Tn hasn't been approved yet and most of the first $2.7Tn hasn't been spent yet and 3/4 of the Fed's $4Tn hasn't been lent yet.  Where else is all that money going to go?

    While YOU may have doubts, you are only a very small fraction of the trading – as are all of us humans. 85-90% of the trading is done by algos and they don't really care about the virus (if they are able to think, they probably are in favor of it) – all they see is trends and profits and they don't care how in debt companies have to go to make those profits either.  

    We made it past 1M infections so next stop is 100,000 deaths but that's (hopefully) a month away, as it 2M infections so the next big market worry is next Friday's Non-Farm Payroll but, if we get past that, we're halfway through earnings and little damage is seen (because it was only 2 weeks and everyone pulled guidance) so nothing to worry about until July earnings.

  8. out of GBTC today. Will re-load on a pullback

  9. Good job taking profits, BDC.  

  10. Yikes, down we go!  

    NY is still HOSPITALIZING 1,000 people per day.  Cuomo says way too high to open back up.

    2,850 failed on /ES – Nothing else matters if they can't take it back.  

    ToS is slowing down – that's a bad sign.

    SPX June 2,850 ($135)/2,750 ($100) bear put spread is $35 – that's interesting for downside protection.  2,950s are $175 so that's net $40 but pays you UNLESS the SPX is over 2,910 so not a bad hedge.  Let's see if we can build off that?  

    July 2,950s are $210 – that's a lot to pay for a month so we don't want to do that.  The 2,900s are $186 – that's reasonable and Aug is $220, that's not.  

    Aha, what if we buy the July 2,950s ($210) and sell the Aug 2,900 puts for $220?  That's a net $10 and we are $50 higher in strike.  Had we done that with June and July, we'd be at $177.50/188 – still a $10 credit with SPX at 2,841 – nope, not worth the hassle. 

    OK, so what's our worry?  A 10% correction takes us back to 2,600 on /ES and SDS is $24 so 20% more is $29(ish) and they have June or Sept so June it is and the June $22s are $3 and the $28s are $1.50 so net $1.50 on the $6 spread is 300% upside on a 10% drop in the S&P – I can live with that.

    $30,000 buys us another $90,000 of protection but let's just buy 100 for the STP and 50 for the Earnings Portfolio (all other portfolios are covered by the STP!) of the SDS June $22/28 bull call spreads at $1.50 officially. 

  11. Now, I'm going to reprint our last Watch List discussion and we'll see what we can still play against that hedge:


    Bounce/Kustomz – Well you know I love the Blue Chips when they are down.  

    We can check on our Watch list from Nov 11th and see how they are doing in the crisis:

    Keep in mind that last set is all from our last LTP Review – not current picks – this is our new watch list which I will hopefully formalize once we see who's still worth watching.

    HBI still a solid buy:

    From Top Trades:

    Top Trades for Fri, 08 Nov 2019 15:12 – MO

    Top Trades for Tue, 29 Oct 2019 10:22 – NLY

    Top Trades for Fri, 25 Oct 2019 11:46 – Dividend Portfolio

    Top Trades for Tue, 22 Oct 2019 14:37 – IRBT

    Top Trades for Tue, 15 Oct 2019 11:04 – MJ

    /KC) and SPWR

    Top Trades for Thu, 03 Oct 2019 11:39 – LABU

    Top Trades for Fri, 27 Sep 2019 13:22 – TXN (short) and TCNNF

    As a short on TXN, I'd go for:

    That's net $2,375 on the $7,500 spread so $5,125 (215%) upside potential if TXN is below $125 into Jan.   Ordinary margin is $7,179 but hopefully short-term and a nice return either way.

    Also, we talked about Truelieve (TCNNF) who are still cheap at $8 (I liked them at $9.15 two weeks ago!).  They failed the falling 50 dma but Kim is speaking at a conference on the 2nd in NYC so this might be a good time.

    $8/share is $883M – I'd buy the whole thing for that price!

    TCNNF hit $13.73 in early Dec and now back to $8.90 this morning so another chance to get into that Pot Stock (my favorite one and I just had lunch with Kim, the CEO, in Miami).  No options, unfortunately. 

    My other watch stocks are/were: 


    On the smaller cap side, by the way, there's also:  X, M, F, MYL, ECA, ADS, TECK, BHF, STLD, SVC, XEC, NRZ, GPS, LB, NWL, HUN, GT, UTHR, AUO, TWO, AGNC, PK, MTG, BSM, SLM and HFC.  

    So, since it's quiet, let's see what looks good.

    • MT – Love them down here ($14.30) but too risky with the virus spreading in Europe – 6 
    • TEVA – Hasn't come down so 4 

    • FCAU – $12.68 is cheap enough and turmoil priced in – 10!
    • DELL – $50 didn't hold so why should $45?  I like them in a bull market but this might not be one anymore.  7 
    • VIA(C) – $23.75, we're going to end up owning a lot of this as we started buying at $35 - 9
    • AAL – See, you put something on a watch list and say "I'd like to buy that airline if they get cheap" and then they get so cheap ($20.68) that you're not sure you want them anymore.  Well, that's a problem for TRADERS but we're investors and this is a 10 at this price!  

    • VALE we picked up, back to $10 and a great price but will take a long time to recover – 8 
    • MYL – Erratic income, changing environment, I don't love them anymore – 4 
    • ECA – Now OVV.  Glad we stayed out – dropped 60%.
    • SFBTF - Again, this is why watch lists are good.  By waiting we saw earnings that told us they were falling apart.  Still too expensive.  3 
    • ING – One we don't usually bother with but, at $9.70, it's a great entry – 8

    • SAN – Another bank too cheap to pass up (8% dividend too) – 8 
    • MUFG – $4.80 too cheap to pass on – 8 
    • LNC – Bigger banks are cheaper so – 6 
    • PUK – Virus could be an insurance nightmare (business interruptions, life, health) and, oh yeah, we're still way behind on our ark-building - 2

    More quick summaries from the watch list:

    • BCS – Not in love with them, can't get a clear line on financials  - 4 
    • MU – Didn't come down much – 5 
    • FCX – Love them below $10 and they have gold – 8 

    • PRU – Too worried about business interruption claims and weather claims.   Very good price though and 6% dividend  – 6
    • SNP – Not China Petroleum – 3
    • LEN – Didn't come down enough – 4 
    • KHC – My old favorite back where we started at $25 – 8


    • UBS – I'd rather take a chance on them than BCS. – 8 

    • CBC – VIAC now and we own them. – 9

    GS – A good price for them but not super-cheap – 5 

    • COF – Not excited by them – 5 
    • MET – A bit worried about life insurance and low returns on their reserves (bonds) so pass – 4
    • MFC – More life insurance, same problems – 4 
    • LYG – Too risky.

    $260 did not last long for AAPL.

    More Watch List:

    • X – Assuming we survive, very cheap – 8 

    • M – Crazy cheap – 9 

    • F – Big China trouble that may spread – 6 
    • MYL – Tricky as they are merging with PFE's Upjohn Division but a good price for MYL at $17 – 8

    • ECA – Not in this environment – 4
    • ADS – Too much turmoil – 4 
    • TECK – Good time for basic resources on sale – 7

    More Watch List:

    • STLD – Too cheap to ignore down around $25 – 8 

    • NRZ – $2 dividend makes them a 9!  

    • GPS – Only because they are so cheap do I like them – 8

    • LB – Love them but no longer cheap – 6
    • HUN – I love it when boring companies go on sale – 8 

    • GT – At this price ($9.50), I like them as you can make them much cheaper with options – 8

    • UTHR – Not on sale enough but a well-priced Biotech – 7 

    • TWO – Nice sale on a 12% REIT – 8 

    • AGNC – Ditto – 7 

    • PK – Tempting but too many issues with travel at the moment – 5 
    • BSM – Interesting as they just manage the reserves.  Great entry price for the long haul – 8

    • HFC – Low-cost, small refiner – 8 

    Unlike Trump, we were very concerned about the virus on 2/27!

  12. Just read an article 7.3% of mortgages are in forebearance representing $840 billion in unpaid principal. If mortgages are that bad, imagine where car loans are. And rent payments. 

  13. Phil / Cashing out…  I closed out about 1/2 my AVGO positions yesterday…. which cleared up cash.  Also took some short term callers on apple into June yesterday and today and sold some positions that are profitable to free up cash.  LMT is getting called away today with some short callers that I am not rolling nice profit on Puts and calls.  Looking for others to lighten up on.   I'm also naked / long on ads at Jan 20 callers to for additional protection ( 50X at 6.1).    This is goode to get ugly into June…. 

  14. Phil / Cashing out… also cleared out my amazon position short Puts / cals which cleared this out – also nice Gaines….  With the above have added about 3% cash and now site at almost 25% cash… sant to get back 10 30%

  15. Elon says TSLA stock too high?

  16. Tangled/TSLA – I think Elon might be too high!

  17. OK, so updating the ones that are still cheap and my quickie rating:

    • MO still cheap (7)
    • SPWR still cheap (8). 
    • TXN still good for put sales (6)
    • TCNNF back to $9.96 so I like them again (no options – 7)
    • FCAU even cheaper now and they WILL get a bailout (10).  In the LTP, IF we can sell 20 of the 2022 10 puts for $4 ($8,000) to net in for $6 – let's do that! 

    • VIAC We already have and I know you are sick of hearing it but BUYBUYBUY!  (10)
    • AAL was so cheap last time I loved them but now I don't see the airlines recovering in the near future so (6).
    • ING – turns out $9.70 wasn't such a great price after all but this is a $20Bn (was $50Bn) EU bank that makes $4Bn in a normal year so $20Bn is just silly.  Unfortunately, they don't have long-term options so we're not going to play them but $5.24 and selling the Oct $5 calls for $1.20 and selling the Oct $5 puts for 0.80 nets you in for $3.24/4.12 – that's a 10!  

    • MU – I can't resist selling 10 of the 2022 $30 puts for $4.50 ($4,500) in the LTP.  That's net $25.50.  

    • MYL – Still holding up at $16 but only fell to $13 and bounced fast so, for the LTP, let's sell 20 of the 2022 $15 puts for $3.50 ($7,000) to remind us to keep an eye on them.  

    • LB – Though their spin-off may fall through, I still think $11.50 is way too cheap.  We already have a $7.50/22.50 bull call spread in the LTP so no adding but – 8!

    • TWO – No long-term options but ridiculously cheap at $4.30 ($1.2Bn) after making $280M last year.  Unless they go BK, I love them for the long-haul so let's just buy 1,000 for the Dividend Portfolio ($4,300) and see how earnings go (5/6) before selling puts or calls.  

  18. LOL, Musk's twitter account was probably hacked.  New is treating it like it might be real but that's his fault for saying so many other stupid things that you really can't tell.    



  19. Easy white collar crime.  Hack twitter accounts of billionaires after placing big stock bets.

  20. Or he is having a hard time doing another raise, with the stock this high?

  21. Musk/Tanged, Palotay – It's possible he's losing it or it's possible he's about to be discovered as a Financial fraud so he's looking for an excuse to be kicked out of the company to shirk responsibility.  

    #ElonMusk Admits Violation Of SEC Deal: Says Tweets About #Tesla Share Price Were Not Vetted

    Not sure if that's true either – so crazy.

    Meanwhile, look how easily distracted we are from another 2.5% sell-off in the markets…

    5% on the RUT!  

    Gotta take the long on /SI over the $15 line – tight stops below!

    Mass unemployment next week can weaken the Dollar too.

  22. Option price shows BID of .05 and ASK of .10 

    I am asking .07 for those options.  Why is my price not the ASK?

  23. Georgia with 27,187 cases as of noon today, 923 more than last night at 7:00, and a full 1,154 more than the 24 hours ago.  4.4% increase and highest day-to-day increase so far.

  24. The Bug/rperi – now what you need is the number that were tested, because you want to know (you do want to know, right? Of course you do!) whether the number tested increased in parallel with the number of cases. Here's a good resource:

  25. Phil/SAN

    SAN is at 2.12. how would you play it. around 12% div


  26. pat_swap/masks – I live in the Chicago suburbs and found retail quantity surgical masks and N95 masks from China or Japan at the asian stores (Chinese or Japanese stores). I'll check the stores tomorrow for availability in case you have trouble finding them.  Also, some auto supply stores may have them (i got N95 from napa autoparts in Feb).

  27. bai2r/Masks

    Thank you for the information and help


  28. Joe Biden just nailed it

  29. Masks

    In general, there is no need for N95 type masks for general public. Not wrong, they are more protective than regular surgical masks but there is data that suggests its not necessary to wear those unless you are in a high risk exposure environment (spending long periods of time – more than 30 minutes – with someone ill with the disease or in close proximity with someone who is aerosolizing the virus for prolonged periods of time).  Since they are hard to find, you can look for typical surgical type masks, those are better than cloth as far as protection/reduction of transmission. You can also wear a cloth mask over a surgical mask to use multiple times instead of disposing after single use. Wash the cloth masks after use. 

    Best to combine mask usage with limited social interactions and distancing. If you must be exposed (ie take care of someone with Covid or live with someone who has it) then N95 would be helpful if you had to be in close proximity to them.  Continue general hygiene recommendations, lots of hand-washing, avoid touching mucus membranes before hand washing and in particular when out in public. Cleaning of surfaces in the home that are high traffic as much as is sanely possible without going overboard. 

    In the hospital setting we are using surgical masks for all interactions except for surgical/aerosolizing procedures as those are higher risk for transmission. Phil is correct, eye protection is also important, but again its relative to whether or not you are in close proximity to someone who is aerosolizing the virus (symptomatic). 

    I'm not sure what to say about air travel, I'd probably want to wear an N95 on the plane, but keep in mind they are not that comfortable and it really only works if you don't take it off while exposure risk is present. So, no eating or drinking or anything that would require you to remove the mask. I suppose some of the time is better than none, but best practice would be to avoid that type of confined situation as much as you can. If you must, definitely mask as much as possible. 

  30. jeffdoc


    Thanks that answered by question about flying Just need to find the n95s

  31. Prices/Tangled – I think it's a part of everything seeming slow, I think orders are not processing correctly on TOS, there seem to be data issues and it might not just be them.

    Georgia/Rperi – Yep, let's open those states back up!

    Tests/Snow – Well that just complicates things but only 4,500 tests/day last two days.  The testing numbers are all over the place, not steadily increasing (and so not the obvious cause of new infections).  

    SAN/Pat – I just looked at them again as I liked them pre-virus and they were on the Watch List but Spain is very hard hit and has a limited ability to bail out their banks as it has to go through the EU and bank earnings have been very erratic so, while I think they are a fun gamble down here, I would emphasize the "gamble" part of that statement.  Options not that exciting either, 2022 $2 puts just 0.45 and the $2 calls are 0.60 – not enough of a discount to mitigate the risk of ownership. 

    Thanks for clarification Jeff! 

    Good luck on the plane, QC!  

    Well, what a crappy way to end the week – almost all the gains gone, totally gone on the Dow:

    Have a great weekend everyone,

    - Phil

  32. QC I'll look up here at Menards. They have had them. I'll let you know. Or look on line.

  33. qc/masks

    I was able to find on ebay, expensive but you can probably find a pack of 10 and that would be plenty. 

  34. COVID 19

    Congratulations are due to President Trump.(sarcasm)

    He brought the Chinese to their knees in Dec. 2019, after more than a year of 'negotiations'. Very proud to have slapped tariffs on the Chinese, 'bringing in BILLIONS OF DOLLARS in extra income to the US. After decades of other administrations cowering down to the Chinese, our great President had the guts to stand up to them. He 'finally' showed them who ruled the world. Meanwhile, the Chinese 'meekly' came to the White House, to sign Phase 1 of the 'deal'. However, they did not send their top boss, Xi, instead a lower ranked official allowed Mr. Trump to continue  praise for himself and his officials for more than 90 minutes.

    But something about that media prop did not seem right. The Chinese delegation simply stood by for more than an hour, watching, listening..did they understand what Mr. Trump was saying? Don't know if they understand English. I felt sorry for their sheepishness or perhaps it was imagined on my part.

    Fast forward to April, 2020, approximately 4and1/2 months later. The great US has more than 1 million cases and more than 60K deaths related to COVID19. That's the direct human cost in health terms, without a final toll yet. Add the 30 million Americans unemployed, a total change in the lifestyle of the 360 million people, having to wear masks, self isolation etc, Then, add the economic cost of up to 6.6 TRILLION dollars or more!  Meanwhile, the Chinese have had less than 100k cases and less than 6000 deaths, and were already used to wearing masks in public for years. Oh, we all DO KNOW that the virus started in China, correct?

    AND, Now we may be thinking of adding more tariffs against China!

    I think we need more masks for the next virus while we deal with this one! The entire country is already focused on the current virus, including parts of our military. Meanwhile, What are the Chinese focused on? I hope SOMEONE in our country knows! Or, maybe the next threat may not be another virus gift from China. That would be too obvious…

  35. jeff/Masks

    appreciate the information!!


  36. Last thought about masks. Ideally, fir N95 type masks, the fit should be tested to ensure it is sealed properly. If you have facial hair, this will likely impact the function and render it pointless from a protection standpoint (no better than a surgical mask). Partly why it's not really best for the public, hardly anyone is properly fit tested and have inadequate seal so it's not a great use of resources or your money. 

  37. Here is a funny meme image illustrating the value of masks using "pee" as an analogy:

    The Urine Test

  38. Hedge gains are 25% of my losses. Need to shore that up. I thought for sure 400 SQQQ spreads and 200 SDS would be enough. Jesus wept. 

  39. That is terrifying, StJ!

    Losses/Dawg – The change in the VIX can wreck havoc with your net on a day like today.  Also, it takes time for the hedges to kick in as well.  

  40. Let's just remember the Chinese data on deaths is woefully underreported. Wuhan had a smog over it while it was locked down, (No industry) from the Crematoriums running day and night. There is satellite data to support that they burned more than the 6,000 bodies in the space of a week. There is also Chinese media reports about more than 5,000 funeral urns being delivered. So don't use Chinses data. It is a LIE

  41. Millard, do you have any links to articles supporting your claims that China falsified their data?   Obviously they are evil, sneaky, godless, sub-human, communist demons – that goes without saying – so I can’t wait to nail them with the raw data from those reports!  MAGA baby!!!  cool

  42. Trump Is Diminishing Presidential Power in Real Time

  43. Your Life or Your Livelihood: Americans Wrestle With Impossible Choice

  44. Funeral urn data reported on Caixin Chinese media, commented on Bloomberg March 26

  45. Estimates Show Wuhan Death Toll Far Higher Than Official … This site estimates Wuhan deaths alone at 40,000, based on seven Crematoriums running 24 hour/day. Nobody who died at home was counted as a Covid death, but every one who came to hospital and had Covid symptoms but did not need hospitalizations sent home. Chinese CDC later realized this resulted in high rate on in home transmission. Many families wiped out staying in their homes. One reason Korea CDC went with isolation in out of home location with nurse supervision and transfer to hospital for worsening cases

  46. For the record, I think Trump is a malignant Narcissist. I did not vote for him in 2016. I would not vote for hime for dog Catcher. I would not vote for Xi either. Xi, Putin and Trump are a malignant triumvirate. Here is a link about home quarantine. 4 members of the same family died after COVID-19 self … This was the family of a Chinese Film maker.