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Monday Market Movement – No News is Good News

Nothing happend this weekend.  

Unlike last weekend, we didn't escalate our Trade War with China or actual wars with other countries and there were no new major scandals in the White House (that we know of yet) and there were no rogue scientists telling us we were re-opening the country too soon so the markets are in a great mood this morning and I'm in a great mood this morning as my daughter drove down from NJ to Florida to see me and I spent a very nice weekend hanging out at the pool in an 80% empty hotel (having her stay at the house still seemed too risky to me).

Not to advertise this particular hotel but the Opal Grand in Delray Beach has a lovely pool and is right on the ocean for just $175 night and parking was pleasantly free and, because I'm a local, we got 30% off that price so $122.50/night.  I felt safer there than I do in the rest of my town, which is as full as it ever was this time of year (off season) with MAYBE 2% of the people wearing masks.  The hotel has no restaurants open but they are selling food in the lobby. 

Having just done it – I highly recommend taking a mental break and simply going somewhere else for the weekend – even if it's just a hotel in your own town.  I checked out all the hotels in town and this one wasn't crowded and used to be a Marriott and is clean and nice (half is being rennovated) so it's no less safe to go to this hotel than the supermarket, probably safer but what a treat just to be somewhere else for a couple of days – even just a few blocks down the street from my house!

I even bonded with other survivors of the Viral Apocalypse – just like humans do when they encounter each other in zombie movies:  "Where are you from", "What's it like over there?" "How did you make it here?", "What do you think will happen next?"  My horror story of walking 4 blocks to get to the hotel didn't compare to the guy who sat in the middle seat on a packed plane (I gave him a good 10 feet!) and many people admired my daughter's logic of driving to avoid the airports becase "what else is there to do?"

Huge shark spotted where 'Jaws II' was filmedIn our town, the restaurants are opening back up at 50% capacity (which is the rule) and they've generally removed half their tables to make more space.  We have a lot of people sitting outside and, at dinner time, the restaurants moved tables in front of banks and other businesses that are closed to give themselves more outdoor dining space and the police seemed fine with that logical arrangement (usually if a restaurant goes one inch over their property line, they get a stern warning).  

My daughter and her friend, being from NJ, walked into the hotel wearing masks and they were mortified at how few other people were wearing masks (only the staff) and they were too freaked out to go to a restaurant so we got take-out and ate it by the pool.  Jackie said it was like waking up from a dream as Jersey is still in full lock-down while Florida is essentially mask-less but I pointed out to her that we also don't wear helmets to ride motorcycles – so hard to go by what Florida is doing as any kind of example. 

The problem is, it's way too early to tell if this is a good idea or not.  On Friday we had 777 new infections in Floriday giving us a total of 45,588 cases.  Now, if we divide 45,588 by 60 days back to March 15th, that's 759 per day so our cases are still moving along at the same pace they were for the last two month.  The Government has shifted it's focus to how many deaths and "only" 9 people died so they really don't care how many people get infected as long as they don't go and die – even though just getting infected can lead to long-term health issues. 

Our Governor, Ron DeSantis, embraces the official GOP attitude that it's not worth shutting down the economy just to prevent the deaths of some old people.  Old people die in Florida every day, they come here to die – it's not the Government's job to stop that from happening.  This is simply a new way for them to die – along with some unlucky young people but, like I said – no helmets – so protecting the young isn't going to win arguments in Florida either…

Bleeding-heart Liberal though I am, I can't entirely disagree with the logic.  As I've mentioned before, "Flattening the Curve" doesn't lead to less cases – it only minimizes the deaths by spreading out the cases over a longer period of time so the Health-Care System doesn't get overwhelmed.  The same number of people get sick but, hopefully, less die.  In absense of a vaccine or cure – that's the best we can hope for.  

Since a vaccine takes 18 months to develop (project Warp Speed aside), you can't flatten the curve enough to stop almost everyone from being infected before there's a vaccine.  Well, you can, if you do what China did but we're way past the chance to do that – with 750 cases a day even in lockdown.  

Shutting down the economy has consequences too and economic injury can be just as real as physical injury for people who spend the rest of their lives in poverty as businesses collapse and jobs disappear.  The Governor has to take that into account as well.  While it's hard to predict how many people will ultimately die of the virus, you can pretty accurately predict how many people will die of hunger, malnutrition, lack of heath care due to unemployment and numerous diseases from unsafe living conditions for many years to come if we don't get the economy back on track.

Watch a Great Deconstruction of the Jaws Beach Scene - /FilmUnlike the Federal Government, Florida can't print money – the states have to live in an economic reality while dealing with this virus so DeSantis, like many Governors, has decided to address the KNOWN Economic Issues rather than continue to fight the UNKNOWN Health Issues.  We've all seen this movie before – hopefully it doesn't end in catastrophe.

Meanwhile, for now, the markets are flying higher as the GOP has indicated they are willing to double down on the stimulus so the week is off to a great start as we throw another $3Tn at a problem that people don't believe even exists anymore. 

More cognative dissonance….

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  1. Good Morning.



  2. Good report from Florida Phil! We are definitely in a different level here in NJ. Masks everywhere in public places.

    It looks like a lot of governments in Europe are making the calculations that the risks of re-opening are lower than the economic risks if they stay in lockdown. I also think that they hope that most people will be reasonable and stay with the social distancing rules in the coming months to prevent large outbreaks. Looking back at history, I am not super optimistic that this will be the case. Will see – I think that there is a 50/50 chance we are in lockdown again this fall. Hope I am wrong. Hopefully after November 3 so we can vote.


  3. It was finally nice this weekend to have a message from president that has empathy, hope, the promotion of unity. Unfortunately, it was from a past president. Our current one spent his weekend tweeting conspiracy theories again and sharing a deep fake of him as the president in the movie Independence Day! As a foreign diplomat mentioned this weekend, this does not reflect well on all of us!

    BTW, in the movie, the president makes the speech and then straps on in a plane to fight with the other pilots (warriors in Trump's talk). Trump hunkers down under his bed in the White House! We don't see him with the front line "warriors" in hospitals for example.





  4. US, European leaders weigh reopening risks without a vaccine


  5. CMG/Phil – We have the 950 June calls short (think in OOP), do we need to adjust or wait a bit longer to see market direction? Thx


  6. CMG/Phil – We have it in the STP.

    Sell 2 CMG June $950 calls for $30 ($6,000)

    Sell 2 CMG June $850 put for $35 ($7,000)

    Buy 4 CMG 2022 $850 puts for $170 ($68,000)

    Sell 4 CMG 2021 (ONE) $750 pus for $73 ($29,200)


  7. Good morning!

    I'd very much like to hear other people's local observations so we can get an idea of what's going on in the world.

    Futures are blasting higher, RUT up 5%, Dow and S&P up 3%, Nas up 2%, Oil up almost 10% – the re-opening is considered a success just because it started – crazy but it's still a coin flip so half the people will be right.  

    /NG with a nice pop already – gotta lock it in at $1.75 (stop below).

    Big Chart – Holding those 50 dmas was a good sign and now we'll see how high we can get but I think the same recent tops are likely to stop us.

    Did the people running the sell-bots get enough evidence to remove their sell orders at those lines?  I don't see it.  This is just more irrational exuberance based on the "fact" that nothing bad happened the weekend we begin to re-open but that's just silly – it will take most of two weeks to see if the trends spike up and, by then, it will be too late to put the genie back in the bottle but, for now – enjoy the rally….

    And keep in mind, like any good horror movie, we just ignored the medical experts who told us it was too soon to re-open and we doubled the capacity allowances for restaurants (and I'm sure other things) from 1/4 to 1/2 – which makes things even worse if we get it wrong.  

    Fall/StJ – Well I certainly hope not.  I hope we have a vaccine by fall and that's another thing being taken into account by the aggressive Governors, that we are actually producing the to 5 vaccine candidates now, while they are being tested – so that we have a lot ready once one is approved.  That was Gate's idea to speed up the process, though it wastes Billions – that's not much money anymore.  

    If we're lucky, we'll have a vaccine before the virus growth gets out of control.  If we're unlucky - oops….

    Map: Watch Coronavirus Cases Spread Across the US – NBC Chicago

    That's what already happened, now we're starting with a base of 1,000x more cases.

    CMG/Ravi – Well up $25 in a day certainly screws us up (STP):

    CMG Short Call 2020 19-JUN 950.00 CALL [CMG @ $971.75 $0.00] -2 5/8/2020 (32) $-6,000 $30.00 $31.20 $-30.00     $61.20 $0.00 $-6,240 -104.0% $-12,240
    CMG Short Put 2020 19-JUN 850.00 PUT [CMG @ $971.75 $0.00] -2 5/1/2020 (32) $-7,400 $37.00 $-22.60     $14.40 $0.00 $4,520 61.1% $-2,880
    CMG Long Put 2022 21-JAN 850.00 PUT [CMG @ $971.75 $0.00] 4 5/5/2020 (613) $68,452 $171.13 $-23.38     $147.75 $0.00 $-9,352 -13.7% $59,100
    CMG Short Put 2021 15-JAN 750.00 PUT [CMG @ $971.75 $0.00] -4 4/30/2020 (242) $-29,800 $74.50 $-16.75     $57.75 $0.00 $6,700 22.5% $-23,100

    So we sold the $950 calls for $30 and we also sold the $850 puts for $37 so $67 is our profit range – up to $1,017.  Meanwhile, the June $950 calls at $61.20 have $11.20 of premium and can be rolled to the July $1,010s ($60) or the Sept $1,100s ($61) so the question is do we think CMG will go to $1,100?  Even if it does, we can sell the Sept $900 puts for $60 and we'd still have our original $67 so then is would be $127 and we'd be profitable below $1,227 (though very disappointed).  

    Still, given the low risk of inaction and the possibility CMG comes back in our range over the next 32 days – I think it's too early to make a change  based on a two-day spike.

    1 in 4 Restaurants Could Die This Summer

    Billionaire Ackman Takes New Bet On Blackstone, Trims Chipotle Stake

    Why Cramer Favors Chipotle, Starbucks And Wendy's Post-Coronavirus Shutdown

    Chipotle Soars as Piper Sandler Gives It a $1,100 Price Target

    Chipotle partners with Uber Eats in Canada

    So what has Fundamentally changed with CMG?  They will be delivered by Uber who will take 20% of their revenues as less customers come to the stores they still have to pay rent on - not really a plus.  Piper upgrated their target – still not over our rolling range.  Cramer send his army of idiots in at the top to jack up the price for his buddies at Piper – same old, same old….


  8. CMG – Can't keep the MOMO stocks down. I sometimes think my whole investment strategy is wrong. That the way to profit is to get on board with the Robin Hood morons with some short term spreads and then just make sure to cash out before reality sets in. 


  9. CMG/Phil- Thx.

    I did notice a big queue last evening outside of my local CMG store, looked like people waiting to order or pick up.

    Drove to Bear Mountain on Friday with family, didn't get out of the car. Did notice the car park was full with a number of people going around with no masks. Roads were very busy in NJ on friday evening, would say 30% less than a normal Friday on GSP.




  10. Phil -

    I am 20 minutes south of you — people who are outside in the open air – only about 10% wearing masks and that's mostly people walking in their neighborhoods/sidewalks or from their car to a place of business.  But inside any business I have been to its near 100% for mask wearing.  Stores have someone stationed at the front to make sure.  My wife works at a pediatric dentist — they are seeing a very reduced caseload and the protocols are quite intense, they even have to bring a change of clothes and leave their PPE at end of day.


  11. {hil Uo here in the No climes most everyone is ignoring any protocols for safety. The cashiers in the grocery stores are covered but most of the shoppers are not. At a greenhouse none of the staff had any masks on and one other shopper had a mask on. Then better then a half dozen shoppers came in, obese and middle aged with no masks whatsoever! And didn't even try to keep a safe distance. The bars and church parking lot were packed full this weekend! We have low rates of infection here BUT from the looks of it that could change. Some are still sheltering in place and some churches have not reopened because this could turn out very bad. Amazing how clueless people are. We all crave socialization with our friends, BUT at what cost?


  12. Vaccine / Phil – Unlikely until 2021 though it seems!


  13. NYC (queens) is about 90% masks on the street and 98% in grocery stores. Every now and then you'll pass somebody on the sidewalk with a mask round their neck, yelling into a phone while smoking a cig.  The funniest thing is when couples walk by with only one of them in a mask.  It's always fun to try and guess their story.  I personally think it's completely unacceptable to be out of your home in New York without a mask on. But that's just me


  14. What's crazy to me is that – even globally, even including China, the virus is still spreading sharply.  

    Simply declaring victory and re-opening doesn't make the virus go away.  In fact, it's likely the worst possible thing you can do yet – here we are!  Good luck to us all in this triumph of Capitalism.

    We have 1/3 of all the cases in the World (33%) with 3.3% of the World's population so, clearly, 10x more cases than the global average.  Last Monday, there were 4.178M cases (12% less – but today isn't over), 3.583 on 5/4 (14% less), 3,024 on 4/27 (15.5% less), 2.467 on 4/20 (18.5% less), 1.905 on 4/13 (23% less), 1.321 on 4/6 (31% less) and 0.857 on 3/31 (35% less).  

    So the lockdown has halved the growth of the virus and now we have to see what happens as the lockdown ends but let's say that, in the next 45 days, we go the other way – that would be 4.679 on 5/25, 5.334 on 6/1, 6.161 on 6/8, 7.301 on 6/15, 8.980 on 6/15, 11,674 on 6/22 and 15.881 on 6/29.

    If we assume 10% viral spread in lockdown we would hit 8.9M so we're only adding about 7M more infections by opening up – that's actually not too bad and I guess the worst case is we go back to lockdown – hopefully before 15M are infected.

    In fact, given that math, I'd put a stop at 10M infections before going back to the lockdown strategy. 

    That is, of course, assuming we re-open slowly – if we all rush out and start going to concerts and movies and airports again, we could be back at 35% weekly gains in no time and if you compound 4.744M 6 times at 35% – that's a quick 29M before July – let's definitely not do that!  

    Strategy/Dawg – Well the LTP is $662,608 this morning – up $63,000 (10%) from Friday's close (not reflecting any adjustments). I certainly sleep a lot better with a diversified group of sensible stocks with conservative targets than I would if I had my money in MoMos.

    Bear Mountain/Ravi – I used to love that place.  Especially in the winter when they had ski jumping and sledding.

    Masks/Jeff – I'm surprised it's so different.  I went into a few places where no masks were required.  Publix and Whole Foods make you wear masks but not restaurants where you order at the counter.  I haven't been into any retail shops yet.  

    2021/StJ – I think they will skip most of the protocols and rush a vaccine through – hopefully they won't accidentally sterilize the human race….

    NYC/Potter – That's the vibe I get from my daughters, they feel uncomfortable being in Florida with everyone flouting the rules.


  15. Opening/Phil – yes, the rules were tightened here in LA a couple of days ago. Masks outside at all times. I suspect even as we reopen, people will be very cautious. We'll provide a good comparison for Florida, Texas, etc.


  16. I'm down in Newport Beach, and it is a zoo down here.  You can barely tell there is a pandemic.  I would say less than 35% have masks on outdoors.  The beaches are crowded.  Family vacations.  Very surreal.  Los Angeles was taking it much more seriously last week, with most people outside wearing masks (now that Garcetti mandated them), but freeway traffic is getting close to normal levels, maybe 80%?


  17. Scottsdale AZ is crowded…Golf courses packed, Restaurants in my area looked busy. Safeway, Fry's grocery stores had maybe 30% masks on. People don't seem too concerned here…


  18. Kansas City area. Seems like about 20-25% of the people in the grocery store were wearing masks this morning, most of those were folks over 40. We have recently re-opened things here but with social distancing rules in place – restaurants operating at reduced capacity, etc…


  19. Michigan in and around Ann Arbor:

    Ann Arbor is very quiet;  Michigan remains closed.  Nearly 100% mask worn while indoors.  Most places are closed, but of the ones open (grocery stores, Costco, etc.) they require mask.  Outside it's about 25% who choose to wear masks.  I have gone to work everyday with just one other.  I do not wear a mask at work or outdoors, I feel safe regardless.  I have worn a mask inside stores or buildings.

    In my town, 30 miles north of Ann Arbor, about 90% wear masks inside; less than 10% outside.  We simply, do not have that many cases.  At the park I run at virtually no one wears masks.  Regardless, I do not feel unsafe, but are population is very small.

    Call me crazy, but I did venture with wife (who wanted out) to Toledo, OH (open State) to meet 5 friends at a restaurant.  We were outdoors, with tables at least six feet apart.  All staff wore masks.  All the tables were full, but it emptied quickly within one hour.  It was fine, although it turned cold which is probably why the place emptied so quickly.


  20. central ct. Did groceries this morning,shelves seem full and everyone had mask.The state starts opening process on may 20. We'll see.


  21. Northeast Atlanta suburbs (electricity and indoor plumbing): 80% + folks wearing masks (about 10% gloves), fairly religious respect for social distancing.

    Moderate commerce overall: in-restaurant dining very sparse, gym patronage slow, tattoo parlors quiet except for the governor, brothels… 


  22. Observations – spent half week in Santa Clara CA and Half in Aptos CA ( Beach area) – Santa clara lots more movement – traffic up about 20% but still below 70% normal.   All grocers requiring masks – still no in dining restaurants, gyms, or hair.  Note this was the Hot spot in March and we were the first areas to shelter in place in CA – out numbers infections are on a negative trends and hospital loading is under 28%.  

     

    Autos CA ( close to Santa Cruz)- lots more activity but still about 25 percent of normal-   everyone wearing masks – even just walking around.  Can't get into anywhere without masks,  Beaches closed from 11 AM to 5 PM then only active activity allowed – jogging, walking surfing – everyone more than half wearing mask on beach.   I accidentally walked on beach during closed hours – it was spooky.  


  23. Economically, really all that matters is if the country goes back to work, now with a new $9T sloshing around (with 99% of this cash quickly accumulating to the top 0.01% of course). If 100,000 people mostly over 65 die is economically not relevant, if not beneficial, because they incur more costs than they do add value from working.

    Spare me the pending indignant routine, this is the "policy" of the Trump admin, if there is one. If it were me in charge, I'd Close and Flatten and reopen South Korea style. Trump is killing people, he doesn't care. Or his supporters.


  24. Yup, unless Ivanka gets seriously sick there is no problem.


  25. Pirate – where are you located?


  26. "I'd very much like to hear other people's local observations so we can get an idea of what's going on in the world.''

     

    Hi Phil, Here in Hong Kong right next to the initial outbreak epicenter (China) we have a total death count of 4. Yes, Four.

    We have never really been ''Locked down" and the entire time restaurants have been open and at the worst few weeks Pubs were closed and we were asked to avoid large public gatherings of more than 4. This didn't last long and tonight I was at the bar which was full of people not wearing masks having a jolly good time. That said Hong Kong was fast to act early and we have a culture here of following Government instructions and wearing masks (as a courtesy to others more than anything)

    I suspect we will be open for business soon, and schools are scheduled to start again in a few weeks. I work in the airline business and we plan to start international flights in late June. 

    Let see if the ''second wave'' theory is correct as we lift travel restrictions.


  27. I love all the local info, thanks. 
     

    Sorry but I keep losing my Internet as we are having an epic lightning storm. 


  28. Phil/LABU,

    I have the following calendar spread

    + 7 LABU Jan21 35 Calls (@3.41) – now at 25.75

    -7 LABU June5  35 Calls (@13.23 – this was from rolling multiple times) – now at 18.75

    what is the best way to take advantage of this move going up? move the short side way out and higher strike? or liquidate and go into another position. I had initially started with short 7 LABU 45 calls of Jan21 but then I moved the closer and lower when LABU went down. I wanted to get rid of them by expiring them out of money but LABU moved up a lot and now this is the position.

    thanks as always

    regards


  29. Pharm!  thanks for the reco on Tril.  18% today. 



  30. Potter….nice.  ARNA…hope people got in as well.  Up 10%.



  31. Batman-I'm on the South shore of Lake Superior in Bayfield Co half way between Duluth/Superior on the way to the Apostle Islands. Remember a few years back when the Ice Caves got international attention? That's on our doorstep. Beautiful but rural here with that big lake sitting there.


  32. Wow, what a storm that was! 

    Flash floods and everything.

    Now we're up 1,000 on the Dow – sure, why not?

    LABU/Pat – You used the clock to your advantage, the June $35s have very little premium left and you have lots of time so, good combination.  Sept $45s are $17 so that's the roll I'd make, you pay $1.75 to roll them $10 higher and you still have 4 more months to roll them even higher but good protection while you wait.  You can pay for it by selling a couple of Jan $35 puts for $8.50 ($1,700 for 2).

    Yay for us!

    • Dougherty & Company hikes its rating on iRobot (IRBT +10.4%) to Buy from Neutral on confidence shares will trade once again  with a 1.5X EV/sales multiple.
    • "That multiple level has good support in IRBT's history and from peers as EBITDA margins trend toward low double-digits (which we see happening here). While we were already incremental favorable on margins thanks to tariff relief, we have also noticed positive demand indicators over the past month in the U.S. via Google keyword search data. We believe this has been spurred by the corresponding collapse in demand for residential house cleaners due to COVID-19 transmission fears."
    • The firm also mentioned a potential boost for iRobot from positive comments made by Howard Stern about its products on the media personality's show.
    • Dougherty assigns a price target of $80 vs. the average sell-side PT of $61.86.
    IRBT Short Call 2022 21-JAN 65.00 CALL [IRBT @ $69.43 $6.51] -20 10/22/2019 (613) $-20,400 $10.20 $10.20 $-6.20     $20.40 - $-20,400 -100.0% $-40,800
    IRBT Short Put 2022 21-JAN 40.00 PUT [IRBT @ $69.43 $6.51] -10 10/23/2019 (613) $-13,000 $13.00 $-6.25     $6.75 - $6,250 48.1% $-6,750
    IRBT Long Call 2022 21-JAN 30.00 CALL [IRBT @ $69.43 $6.51] 20 3/23/2020 (613) $34,000 $17.00 $24.70     $41.70 - $49,400 145.3% $83,400

    We sold 4 July $65 calls last week but that will be fine (fortunately only 4).  Now we're 100% in the money and we still had $37,850 to make if IRBT is over $65!

    Submitted on 2020/05/13 at 4:00 pm

    IRBT – Howard Stern says he has 3 – that's good advertising.  $70,000 spread that's at the money at net $34,150 means we can expect to make $35,850 (105%) from here.  Still, I think it's gotten ahead of itself and we have so much to make that we can afford to sell some calls.  The July $65 calls are $4 so selling 4 of those for $4,000 is a nice way to pull in some income while we wait.  

    Good call Pharm!



  33. Nice Dollar trashing today to help boost the market:

    Dollar is down so much even the Euro went up:

    Not the Yen though – let's not go crazy….

    /NG finally stopped going up:


  34. IBM/Phil
    Would you suggest any adjustments to this IBM position, for example rolling the '21 $120 calls out to something?

    24 '22 $90 calls (@$27)

    -16 '21 $120calls (@$8.28)

    -8  '22  $140calls (@ $11.44)

    -4 '22 $135p (@ $21.16)

    Thx!


  35. Augusta, Georgia, maybe half wearing masks, depending upon the store.  Haven't eaten in a restaurant but for takeout about 75% of those working at restaurant windows or curbside pickup have masks.  No requirement for groceries, so I would say about 75% wearing masks inside including all employees, the few that aren't are mostly younger than 30.  If you didn't read the news and just drove around town, you wouldn't know anything was wrong.  Tons of cars, parking lots are packed.  Our local Walmart looks like a Saturday every day.  Kids youth sports will start again on June 1.  Churches in SC are open already, ours will open next Monday, all with regulations and capacity limits.  No one outside in parks or running are wearing masks.  Atlanta has the much higher cases numbers and Augusta University handles most of the tests in the state.  Hard to trust the case numbers here, especially with the recent gaffe and then this notice "The DPH web site on Monday noted that on “May 17 there was an electronic processing error which inadvertently included 231 serologic test results in the number of positive COVID19 cases. This error was corrected, but caused a decrease in positive cases between reporting periods on our dashboard. We are working diligently to provide the most accurate information, and we apologize for any confusion.”

    Curious to see what the numbers will look like in 14 days.


  36. BDC – re: old people – that's pretty much the math everyone in the world is doing right now. Do we keep everything shut down until we hit zero or do we say hey, if you're a part of a vulnerable population then maybe protect yourself, if not then let's get to work?

    We flattened down to a pretty steady 30,000 a day. At that rate, and assuming undetected cases are 90%, it would take over a year and a half to get something close to herd immunity. We can't do that. 

    So yeah there's some callousness involved but the other side of it is how many people die from lack of preventive medicine like cancer screenings etc?

    How many people go bankrupt? How much permanent economic damage are we willing to incur?

    With $20T in debt now pushing $30T, letting the economy take a 5 year hit is a national security issue. 

    We can say idiot Trump is responsible for all of it but (I don't think that's entirely true but even if it is) it doesn't change the options we have in front of us. I may have a different perspective having worked every day straight through like nothing happened, but I'm coming around to the idea that we need to move on and let the chips fall where they may. 


  37. Pirate – thanks – sounds like a pretty nice place  


  38. IBM/Wing – Actually, I like it.   I think the $90s are too deep in the money, you have $84K tied up in them so I'd cash those and pick up the 2022 $120 calls at $16.50 which would be $38,400 if you went with 24 but I'd go 32 for $52,800 and sell 8 more 2022 $140 calls for $9 ($7,200) and that's net $38,400 back in your pocket and you have $32,000 worth of 2022 $120/140 bull call spreads and then you can (no hurry) sell maybe 8 Jan (21) $100 puts for $6 and use that $6,000 to roll the Jan $120 calls ($12.50) up to the $130 calls ($8) and then see how that goes.  We know the 2022 $140 calls are $9 so that should be the eventual roll but hopefully you can do better but I'd say you put about $45,000 into this trade and now you are talking $38,400 out and it should be about $64,000 on the spread if IBM behaves so – very nice!

    Oh Behave GIF - AustinPowers MikeMyers OhBehave - Discover & Share ...

    Georgia/Rperi – I don't think I'd go to a grocery store where the employees aren't wearing masks but I guess you don't have much choice…

    Moving on/Dawg – My friend's brother in his 40s lives in Florida and just got it.  He wasn't worried.  It's not the human vs economic risk I object to so much as the NEEDLESS risk and that's all on Trump.  TESTING, PPE and Social Distancing – you don't have to shut anything down if you SPEND money to PROTECT the citizens and enforce sensible rules to avoid situations in which people are likely to spread the virus.   That's how you avoid a shutdown and keep the economy open but that requires organization and leadership so, lacking that – our leaders change the narrative to "acceptable losses."  That's the crime of this thing! 

    The auto industry used to say that safety features would bankrupt them and their customers.  Putting seat belts in is pointless if you don't get the customers to use it.  Government works with Private industry to make the people safer – AMAZING! 

    Until the 1940s, 25-30 people per 100,000 died by car each year.  In the 50s and the 60s we got to the low 20s and then Nader came along in the 70s and we finally dropped into the teens and steadily down since with last year being 11 so 66% improvement in Auto Safety.  66% improvement in virus safety could save many millions of lives.  Are they "worth" it?

    TSLA/Advill – Those are some really optimistic numbers!  Here's a bunch of 8 year-old Model S's selling for under $25,000 so 40% of retail cheaper than a new Model 3.  How would it be possible that, 12 years from now, someone will give you OVER 50% of the price of a brand new Model 3?  Won't there be all sorts of improvements over 12 years?  Are people paying 50% of the price of a 12 year-old laptop – even if it works perfectly?  

    We're holding up strong into the close.


  39. EV’s /Phil  
    The point is that you save 25k of gas and you still have a batt with a high residual value that is generating a second life batts industry.


  40. (off subject)

    pirateinvestor      One of my most memorable trips was to Bayfield about 18 years ago. We stayed at the Old Rittenhouse Inn.  We thoroughly enjoyed bicycling on Madeline Island, picking apples and berries, canoeing and just visiting with the locals.  Memorable meals include walleye pike, smoked fish, whitefish livers and local pie. Walking back to the Inn one evening, I still remember how amazing it was that so many of the front doors were open and unlocked AT NIGHT.  Oh, and who can forget those mosquitoes…the largest ones I have ever seen.


  41. TA / who cares. 

    SPX running into 2965 like a wall over and over again!!   third times a charm? 




  42. S&P recovery will be far faster than 2008: Citigroup





  43. Paul Gibbs: Biden vs. Trump is a life-or-death choice